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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. So Boris Johnson is PM. What
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB / Polling Matters podcast. So Boris Johnson is PM. What now?
On this week’s podcast, Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi look back at a momentous week in British politics and ask what happens next?
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https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1154535318017708033?s=21
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1154536468192382976?s=21
It is one thing that attracted me to the Labour left, less of an authoritarian view and more respect for civil liberties.
https://www.vogue.co.uk/article/who-is-carrie-symonds
https://www.britainfirst.org/best_politically_incorrect_boris_quotes
I figure it would be easier just to list the far right groups that don't like Boris... Just have to find one first.
Which is why No one would want to rush into an election - Boris needs Farage to stand down, the other parties need Farage in full on “you failed to leave on October 31st” mode
In the first rift between the new prime minister and the faction that backed him for the leadership, Steve Baker told Mr Johnson that a job in the Brexit department would have left him “powerless”.
Tory Eurosceptics accused Mr Johnson of “binning off” the European Research Group of Brexiteers now that he was in power. They blamed Dominic Cummings, the former head of Vote Leave, who has been appointed the most senior adviser in Downing Street.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/tory-right-s-anger-over-dominic-cummings-job-as-senior-aide-to-johnson-75k5m69n9
They'll be at the gates of Auchentennach Castle by the autumn ....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2018/mar/12/tory-links-russia-saudi-links-corbyn-spy-extremism
This is before we get into Putin's support for Brexit.
They have all the same friends as well, Bannon, Trump etc.
Putin's man is in Downing Street.
Podsmead (Gloucester) result:
LDEM: 30.0% (+30.0)
CON: 29.6% (-18.5)
LAB: 18.0% (-33.9)
BREX: 16.4% (+16.4)
GRN: 4.3% (+4.3)
UKIP: 1.6% (+1.6)
Liberal Democrat GAIN from Labour
I see a Swinson surge, but where is the Honeymoon BJ?
Mr. P, interesting tweet, if accurate (loss of Grayling, very pro-leave and pro-Boris, indicates it might be). If Boris can't even get the hardliners behind him, he's got half a faction.
Difficult to oust a PM. Not so hard to undermine one.
In Safari there are no comments showing whatsoever. In various other browsers I can read comments, but not log in myself. Only place I’ve succeeded in logging in is Firefox, but it has various strange characteristics, including that images do not load, so for example all twitter posts just show as a bare link.
Seriously I am not having any problems on my iPhone.
So, a 19% drop isn't as bad as Labour's 34% drop ;-)
Even if the backstop is scrapped wholesale, it will be something else.
I know there’s no difference in the eyes of the Left but the fascist labelling and comparisons became very tiresome a long time ago.
There’s talk of these magical 40 Labour MPs who might somehow vote it through. They won’t materialise.
What kind of authoritarian won't even press pretty valid claims against their enemies when they press lesser ones against them?
And in case it is a DNS issue, on Firefox, configure DNS over HTTPS but don't tell the government!
https://www.zdnet.com/article/how-to-enable-dns-over-https-doh-in-firefox/
Is pb OK if accessed on, say, your phone or tablet, assuming they use mobile data rather than just the same wifi network?
Otherwise wait for someone who knows what they are talking about to come along.
Chloe is simply supporting good thatcherite types.
Occasionally he posts good Twitter links, like one out of every hundred. If I wanted to read Twitter I’d.. er.. go to Twitter.
I can still see the embedded tweets in Firefox, though.
https://pastebin.com/zxAf0p1h
The first speech as leader was very shouty about "inclusive", but she did seem to exclude a lot of people. Very tribal.
And she has a bit of a history of going Missing in Action when awkward questions arise - not possible for a leader.
And of course Layla Moran is still in post.
And as for politics and the by elections last night as we were discussing yesterday anyone can go from anywhere to anywhere.
We see this all the time. Like when similar Conservatives are accused of being racist or fascist (or both) for appearing at a debate with the wrong sort of people. Personally, I think Chloe is too ideological but she’s not unpleasant and nor is she is a racist.
If there’s prima facie evidence of her having wholly unpalatable views then let’s hear it.
Until then it’s just a crude political attempt to damage the Government by reaching into the past and smearing her by association, which is being an institutional speciality of social media. Probably because it’s effective far too often.
On these results, you would have to bet on them retaking Cheltenham in an imminent election. But I would also have said there's a chance of taking Stroud (where the Labour MP is carefully annoying everyone and throwing away his crucial personal vote) and of at least coming second in Gloucester itself. I think Forest and Tewkesbury (which are much more Brexity) would be beyond them. But they're clearly overtaking Labour as the main opposition in Gloucestershire.
I don't know that you've been much involved in that yourself but you can hardly complain about these tactics being used back against the Conservatives...
One of the most irritating things about the election of Boris is how the magazine has gone completely doolally for him. It’s like it’s an in-house journalistic mouthpiece devoted to his advocacy and has lost all objectivity.
This is disappointing as I usually rely on it as a useful and sober perspective on conservative politics.
I may now have to look elsewhere for that.
That’s the smear.
Before 2005, Labour held three seats in Gloucestershire and the Yellows one. In 2015 the Tories had a clean sweep. We could see a major surge reduce them to two, but Labour not benefitting.
That's arguably a microcosm of Labour's problem countrywide. People are understandably fed up with the government, but not turning to the Opposition as an alternative.
It’s the likes of James Forsyth and Fraser Nelson who are starting to disappoint me.
Although crimes of the father an all that.... I think it just weakens an already weak attack, although I wonder if any of them really need to mean anything or have much factual basis...
The clown just needs to make them laugh and cheer, facts and consistency just get in the way.
However, all sides use these tactics now.
They work.
Hmm. Just noticed I get this: The source list for Content Security Policy directive 'frame-ancestors' contains an invalid source: '*politicalbetting.com'. It will be ignored. Maybe that is why I do not share your problem!
He is, so far as I know, the only person to have blocked me on Twitter.
Being a leave area doesn’t seem to be that much of an obstacle - at least for local elections. Podsmead Gloucester is said to be 2:1 leave, and we have seen recent local by-election wins in extremely leave areas like Bridlington and Daventry.
Quite possibly a lot of Leave “voters” aren’t voters at all?
Fraser Nelson could be a no deal Brexit bot and we wouldn’t notice any difference.
This was three years ago. Chloe might have been making a free speech point, applauding her bravery for publishing something contentious, and getting into the public domain to start a debate, or she might have been commenting on one of her political campaigns but not others. And she might not have been aware of how far AMW would go (she ended up being kicked out of UKIP a year later).
Three years ago (pre referendum) I was still defending Nigel Farage, Andrew Lilico and Jacob Rees-Mogg, and Daniel Hannan was one of my heroes.
As you can imagine I feel rather silly about some of that now.
Personally, I’m aging like a fine Bordeaux. Peak Stuart is a long way off.
'In 2016 Boris Johnson's new digital adviser Chloe Westley enthusiastically backed renowned racist Ann Marie Waters who had just set up Pergida UK with one Tommy Robinson.
I see Westley has been deleting old tweets including this.'
Which part of that is untrue?
She is Boris Johnson's new digital advisor
She tweeted that in 2016
Calling someone a hero = enthusiastic backing
That Anne Marie Waters is a racist
That she had just set up Pergida UK with Tommy Robinson
Or that Chloe deleted it?
At the same time, it is an area where there is now an activist base and a strong presence. The right candidate should have a chance if things develop as they have in the last twelve months.