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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest
It has just been announced that 39 year old Jo Swinson has won the Lib Dem leadership race against her former ministerial colleague in the coalition, Ed Davey.
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I think her soft Scottish accent should play well. It did no favours to Gordon Brown; but I don't really think she's in contendership to be next PM so should be fine.
Good Luck LDs! I agree with most of your policies except your central one.
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.
Congrats.
this is turning in to a Hollywood acceprance speech
72% t/o
She will be a 'safe pair of hands'
But that isn't enough
Repeatable note for the future - yarns and spin floated to journalists desperate for a close race are no substitute for good polling.
I think the whole "switching to Hunt" narrative span out by team Hunt will prove to be just that, spin too.
In what respect are the views of Lib Dem voters different from Labour voters ?
Of course, Don Valley is different, we're told.
Davey 28021 36.9pc
(via Sky)
Incidentally, are men ever shrill?
I like Ed Davey , he used to be my MP many moons ago but Jo is perfectly good as the next leader .
Now, it's true the SNP is also polling better. But Swinson got a third more votes than her SNP competitor in 2017, has meaningfully increased her vote tally since she was was first elected in 2010, and the amount of Unionist tactical voting is Scotland is probably going to increase.
Plus, of course, party leaders usually get a bit of a boost.
None of these things make her a "dead cert", but I feel very comfortable laying her at 3-1.
My own MP, Laurence Robertson, holds a huge majority. He's at the loonier end of the ERG so he's out as far as I'm concerned. Can't vote Labour as long as Corbyn is in charge, AS is not being properly dealt with, and equivocation over Brexit continues. That means LDs get the vote, simply by being pro-EU and generally sensible. They won't win but they will be one vote heavier than if I didn't bother.
It's a small contribution but it helps.
It is unedifying.
And Swinson claiming she is a candidate for PM, she is setting herself up for a 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government' moment...
Mk II - Return to your constituencies and prepare for government.
Hhhhmmm .....
If it was online only I think that explains why it was (what I consider to be) rather low.
Ed Davey did well to get 38%. It would have been much closer, obviously, if Vince Cable had been a woman. That's what cost Sir Ed his chance - that Sir Vince had been unambiguously a man throughout his entire tenure, and not only that, a knight of the realm.
The optics of one 'Sir' handing over to another 'Sir' in a party that has never had a female leader did not bear thinking about.
I predict Hunt will not do as well as Davey. 28% for him tomorrow, I would imagine.
No half measures.
All over the country, millions of ordinary normal decent anoraks and psephologists were listening to the declaration and writing down the numbers, but were sabotaged by a few dozen reckless haphazard ramshackle impertinent disrespectful disruptive booliaks who somehow thought that squawking like morons and drowning out the numbers in order to express their support for the winning candidate was somehow more important than finding out the actual numbers.
She could appear outside Downing Street to solemnly proclaim,
"Nothing has Changed!"...oh, and have another look at my WDA.
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
Bollocks argument of course, although difficult to understand why you would not vote if you cared enough to join a political party. Who will be the first to point out Boris/Hunt didn't get the vote of half Tory party members tomorrow ?
I haven't a clue whether the right choice was made, I don't have a horse in that race. I think she might struggle more against Corbyn than Boris.
I'd vote for Ken Clarke in almost any circumstances.
"106,075 ballots were sent out and 76,429 votes cast, with a 72% turnout.
That turnout compares with 56% for the 2015 Farron-Lamb contest and 64% for the knife-edge Clegg-Huhne contest of 2007. Previous turnouts were 72% (2006), 62% (1999) and 72% (1988).
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)
My bad.
(tbh anything below 85pc is a bit low for me rant rant rant rant)
3 weeks late!
I suppose it would then be up to Parliament to VONC her, if they were so minded.
She’ll be up against the great Bozo (if he lasts), and either Corbyn or Rebecca Wrong-Daily or Laura Pillock.
All things are relative.
And unless he also acknowledges his own failings both in terms of positions taken/statements made/perpetrators supported and in failing to move quickly enough to resolve this, it won't move to shut this down as an issue.
Plus the idea of 'political education' is deeply unpleasant. It sounds more like teaching people to think the way Jeremy wants you to think rather than teaching people about critical thinking and the ethics of equality.