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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jo Swinson wins the LD leadership contest
It has just been announced that 39 year old Jo Swinson has won the Lib Dem leadership race against her former ministerial colleague in the coalition, Ed Davey.
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First like Jo0
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Great ! What are the numbers then ?
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Swinson! a bit of a thrashing (she clearly got the vagina vote)(First women liberal/sdp leader!)
I think her soft Scottish accent should play well. It did no favours to Gordon Brown; but I don't really think she's in contendership to be next PM so should be fine.
Good Luck LDs! I agree with most of your policies except your central one.0 -
Can't say I am totally convinced by this choice, but good luck to her.0
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28k/42k or thereaboutssurbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
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fpt
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.0 -
I voted for Ed. I think we'll still have the benefit of his thoughtfulness, and the advantage of Jo's optics. There's not a huge amount between them policy-wise.rottenborough said:Can't say I am totally convinced by this choice, but good luck to her.
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She would not harm Lib Dem chances unless she says or does something terrible. But she is the sensible type - so should be alright. It was a big victory nonetheless.
Congrats.0 -
hmmm
this is turning in to a Hollywood acceprance speech0 -
My reasons for not voting Lib Dem are far easier - it's a wasted vote unless things really, really change in my constituency...TOPPING said:fpt
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.0 -
Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.0
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47,900 v 28,021Tabman said:
28k/42k or thereaboutssurbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
72% t/o0 -
Nothing Swinson is saying today is making her look like a national leader. She has the air of someone addressing a small village hall. She feels too parochial. And lacks any real inspirational qualities.
She will be a 'safe pair of hands'
But that isn't enough0 -
I think 5-1 on Davey was still an OK bet/tip given we had absolubtely no reliable polling done on the race whatsoever.
Repeatable note for the future - yarns and spin floated to journalists desperate for a close race are no substitute for good polling.
I think the whole "switching to Hunt" narrative span out by team Hunt will prove to be just that, spin too.0 -
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Shouldn't that be "only Davey can win here"?eek said:0 -
I'm not sure that can be said any more. I think there is a huge groundswell of non-major parties and now is as good an opportunity as I think possible for the LDs. My constituency went from being a super-marginal to a 12k Lab majority so thousands of voters can move en masse.eek said:
My reasons for not voting Lib Dem are far easier - it's a wasted vote unless things really, really change in my constituency...TOPPING said:fpt
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.0 -
https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1153304622855073793
In what respect are the views of Lib Dem voters different from Labour voters ?
Of course, Don Valley is different, we're told.0 -
If you have any influence, can you suggest she gets a better hairdresser?Barnesian said:
She'll have voice training. There's plenty of upside to her current performance. That's why I voted for her.Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
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There really wasn't any choice. The Lib Dems had a total of 11 possible candidates 2 of which could be easily ruled out as the existing and previous leader...oxfordsimon said:Nothing Swinson is saying today is making her look like a national leader. She has the air of someone addressing a small village hall. She feels too parochial. And lacks any real inspirational qualities.
She will be a 'safe pair of hands'
But that isn't enough0 -
Swinson 47900 63.1pc
Davey 28021 36.9pc
(via Sky)0 -
Shit turnout though0
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Do vaginas typically exhibit a strong turnout?JBriskinindyref2 said:Swinson! a bit of a thrashing (she clearly got the vagina vote)(First women liberal/sdp leader!)
I think her soft Scottish accent should play well. It did no favours to Gordon Brown; but I don't really think she's in contendership to be next PM so should be fine.
Good Luck LDs! I agree with most of your policies except your central one.0 -
Not bad for a party with 12 MPs!JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
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Oh for fuck's sake. Even someone as experienced as Baroness Brinton can't even be bothered to tell us the result properly. The golden rule of announcing election results is that you repeat any numbers which are drowned out by cheering. 47 thousand and what-what-what?0
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So membership just north of 100k !IanB2 said:
47,900 v 28,021Tabman said:
28k/42k or thereaboutssurbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
72% t/o
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As did I, and I'd agree with the above. There is so little between them policy-wise though, that I would question anyone saying they'd have voted for an Ed-led party but not under Jo. Not sure I believe you.Tabman said:
I voted for Ed. I think we'll still have the benefit of his thoughtfulness, and the advantage of Jo's optics. There's not a huge amount between them policy-wise.rottenborough said:Can't say I am totally convinced by this choice, but good luck to her.
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That tooRichard_Nabavi said:
If you have any influence, can you suggest she gets a better hairdresser?Barnesian said:
She'll have voice training. There's plenty of upside to her current performance. That's why I voted for her.Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
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God some of the criticisms of Jo Swinson are really a bit much .
I like Ed Davey , he used to be my MP many moons ago but Jo is perfectly good as the next leader .
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The Brexit party avoid that mistake by having a leader for life, thus avoiding the stress of party democracy.TOPPING said:
Will no party membership actually get it right??!!Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
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Since 2017, the LibDems have more than doubled their national vote share. In Scotland, in the Euros, they doubled their vote share from 2014.Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
Now, it's true the SNP is also polling better. But Swinson got a third more votes than her SNP competitor in 2017, has meaningfully increased her vote tally since she was was first elected in 2010, and the amount of Unionist tactical voting is Scotland is probably going to increase.
Plus, of course, party leaders usually get a bit of a boost.
None of these things make her a "dead cert", but I feel very comfortable laying her at 3-1.0 -
Not sure that I get the 'wasted vote' argument, Eek, unless you regard all votes as wasted under FPTP if they don't happen to be decisive in a knife-edge constituency.eek said:
My reasons for not voting Lib Dem are far easier - it's a wasted vote unless things really, really change in my constituency...TOPPING said:fpt
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.
My own MP, Laurence Robertson, holds a huge majority. He's at the loonier end of the ERG so he's out as far as I'm concerned. Can't vote Labour as long as Corbyn is in charge, AS is not being properly dealt with, and equivocation over Brexit continues. That means LDs get the vote, simply by being pro-EU and generally sensible. They won't win but they will be one vote heavier than if I didn't bother.
It's a small contribution but it helps.0 -
Crap/non-existent hairdresser appears to be the fast route to the big chair.Richard_Nabavi said:
If you have any influence, can you suggest she gets a better hairdresser?Barnesian said:
She'll have voice training. There's plenty of upside to her current performance. That's why I voted for her.Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
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Can someone tell the LDs to stop screaming?
It is unedifying.
And Swinson claiming she is a candidate for PM, she is setting herself up for a 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government' moment...0 -
Yes, each membership surge - Cleggmania, post-2015 sympathy, post-2016 shock, 2019 EU bollocks - takes the membership just north of 100,000.surbiton19 said:
So membership just north of 100k !IanB2 said:
47,900 v 28,021Tabman said:
28k/42k or thereaboutssurbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
72% t/o0 -
Yes I pondered mentioning the Brexiters but then never has a description better fitted anyone than to say that they are not even wrong.AlastairMeeks said:
The Brexit party avoid that mistake by having a leader for life, thus avoiding the stress of party democracy.TOPPING said:
Will no party membership actually get it right??!!Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
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More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
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Given UKIP's fortunes since Farage departed can you really blame him ? I wonder if Tice might try a coup at some stage mind.AlastairMeeks said:
The Brexit party avoid that mistake by having a leader for life, thus avoiding the stress of party democracy.TOPPING said:
Will no party membership actually get it right??!!Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
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Not as unedifying as the current state of the Tories and Labour . If people want sanity vote Lib Dem and I’m saying this as a normal Labour voter .oxfordsimon said:Can someone tell the LDs to stop screaming?
It is unedifying.
And Swinson claiming she is a candidate for PM, she is setting herself up for a 'Go back to your constituencies and prepare for government' moment...0 -
Now almost certain Lab’s next will be female.0
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Jo Who?0
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Jo Swinson channeling her inner David Steel .....
Mk II - Return to your constituencies and prepare for government.
Hhhhmmm .....2 -
Especially for an online only ballot.rcs1000 said:
More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
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is that some kind of swingers vote thing ?rcs1000 said:
Since 2017, the LibDems have more than doubled their national vote share. In Scotland, in the Euros, they doubled their vote share from 2014.Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
Now, it's true the SNP is also polling better. But Swinson got a third more votes than her SNP competitor in 2017, has meaningfully increased her vote tally since she was was first elected in 2010, and the amount of Unionist tactical voting is Scotland is probably going to increase.
Plus, of course, party leaders usually get a bit of a boost.
None of these things make her a "dead cert", but I feel very comfortable laying her at 3-1.0 -
What happens if T May says something like: "Well Your Majesty, Boris has more chance of commanding a majority of the Commons than anyone else but I cannot guarantee that he can and am even inclined to think he probably cannot"?
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106,000 voting papers distributed so membership will be greater than this as recent joiners would not have received voting papers.surbiton19 said:
So membership just north of 100k !IanB2 said:
47,900 v 28,021Tabman said:
28k/42k or thereaboutssurbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
72% t/o1 -
Yes. But that point only holds in a safe seat. Of course there is the argument you should vote for the best candidate anyway. But the calculation is very different in a marginal, especially a Con/Lab one under a Boris/Corbyn situation.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not sure that I get the 'wasted vote' argument, Eek, unless you regard all votes as wasted under FPTP if they don't happen to be decisive in a knife-edge constituency.eek said:
My reasons for not voting Lib Dem are far easier - it's a wasted vote unless things really, really change in my constituency...TOPPING said:fpt
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.
My own MP, Laurence Robertson, holds a huge majority. He's at the loonier end of the ERG so he's out as far as I'm concerned. Can't vote Labour as long as Corbyn is in charge, AS is not being properly dealt with, and equivocation over Brexit continues. That means LDs get the vote, simply by being pro-EU and generally sensible. They won't win but they will be one vote heavier than if I didn't bother.
It's a small contribution but it helps.0 -
I don't have the previous figures for comparison - but my first reaction was rather shit - it's a postal ballot after all.rcs1000 said:
More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
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Jo Swinson was elected by the Russian botfarms- you heard it here firstIanB2 said:
Especially for an online only ballot.rcs1000 said:
More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
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RE: turnout
If it was online only I think that explains why it was (what I consider to be) rather low.0 -
Great time to be taking over the LDs. She must be excited!
Ed Davey did well to get 38%. It would have been much closer, obviously, if Vince Cable had been a woman. That's what cost Sir Ed his chance - that Sir Vince had been unambiguously a man throughout his entire tenure, and not only that, a knight of the realm.
The optics of one 'Sir' handing over to another 'Sir' in a party that has never had a female leader did not bear thinking about.
I predict Hunt will not do as well as Davey. 28% for him tomorrow, I would imagine.0 -
I voted for Ed. Jo needs to get up that learning curve quickly. But she’ll have an advantage over the somewhat worthy Ed in getting noticed as the only female (and only young person) leading the big four. And all three other party leaders will have to be very careful to avoid falling into the trap of appearing to patronise her.0
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Nobody yet knows the numbers because (a) that stupid cow Sal Brinton didn't repeat the figures which were drowned out by the cheering, and (b) the stupid morons were cheering in the first place.surbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
All over the country, millions of ordinary normal decent anoraks and psephologists were listening to the declaration and writing down the numbers, but were sabotaged by a few dozen reckless haphazard ramshackle impertinent disrespectful disruptive booliaks who somehow thought that squawking like morons and drowning out the numbers in order to express their support for the winning candidate was somehow more important than finding out the actual numbers.
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Then she would be obliged to continue in post.crandles said:What happens if T May says something like: "Well Your Majesty, Boris has more chance of commanding a majority of the Commons than anyone else but I cannot guarantee that he can and am even inclined to think he probably cannot"?
She could appear outside Downing Street to solemnly proclaim,
"Nothing has Changed!"...oh, and have another look at my WDA.0 -
Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.2 -
I posted the numbers-JohnLoony said:
Nobody yet knows the numbers because (a) that stupid cow Sal Brinton didn't repeat the figures which were drowned out by the cheering, and (b) the stupid morons were cheering in the first place.surbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
All over the country, millions of ordinary normal decent anoraks and psephologists were listening to the declaration and writing down the numbers, but were sabotaged by a few dozen reckless haphazard ramshackle impertinent disrespectful disruptive booliaks who somehow thought that squawking like morons and drowning out the numbers in order to express their support for the winning candidate was somehow more important than finding out the actual numbers.JBriskinindyref2 said:Swinson 47900 63.1pc
Davey 28021 36.9pc
(via Sky)0 -
106k apparently. So half would have been 53k. Now what was that argument about the Brexit referendum, not half the electorate voted to leave ???surbiton19 said:
So membership just north of 100k !IanB2 said:
47,900 v 28,021Tabman said:
28k/42k or thereaboutssurbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
72% t/o
Bollocks argument of course, although difficult to understand why you would not vote if you cared enough to join a political party. Who will be the first to point out Boris/Hunt didn't get the vote of half Tory party members tomorrow ?
I haven't a clue whether the right choice was made, I don't have a horse in that race. I think she might struggle more against Corbyn than Boris.0 -
You could always try reading down the thread?JohnLoony said:
Nobody yet knows the numbers because (a) that stupid cow Sal Brinton didn't repeat the figures which were drowned out by the cheering, and (b) the stupid morons were cheering in the first place.surbiton19 said:Great ! What are the numbers then ?
All over the country, millions of ordinary normal decent anoraks and psephologists were listening to the declaration and writing down the numbers, but were sabotaged by a few dozen reckless haphazard ramshackle impertinent disrespectful disruptive booliaks who somehow thought that squawking like morons and drowning out the numbers in order to express their support for the winning candidate was somehow more important than finding out the actual numbers.0 -
Yes, there will always be different reasons for voting and what is decisive for any individual may vary from constituency to constituency, election to election. The Remain/Brexit divide was decisive for me last time and will probably be so next time. Candidate plays big with me though.dixiedean said:
Yes. But that point only holds in a safe seat. Of course there is the argument you should vote for the best candidate anyway. But the calculation is very different in a marginal, especially a Con/Lab one under a Boris/Corbyn situation.Peter_the_Punter said:
Not sure that I get the 'wasted vote' argument, Eek, unless you regard all votes as wasted under FPTP if they don't happen to be decisive in a knife-edge constituency.eek said:
My reasons for not voting Lib Dem are far easier - it's a wasted vote unless things really, really change in my constituency...TOPPING said:fpt
Will certainly make my life more difficult as I'm not sure I will entertain voting LDs under Swinson. Of course I know I am pale, male and stale and hence would naturally have preferred Davey, but I wouldn't be the only one and winning votes from hitherto forbidden areas is what will propel them towards power.
My own MP, Laurence Robertson, holds a huge majority. He's at the loonier end of the ERG so he's out as far as I'm concerned. Can't vote Labour as long as Corbyn is in charge, AS is not being properly dealt with, and equivocation over Brexit continues. That means LDs get the vote, simply by being pro-EU and generally sensible. They won't win but they will be one vote heavier than if I didn't bother.
It's a small contribution but it helps.
I'd vote for Ken Clarke in almost any circumstances.0 -
Next leader to leave market settled on betfair. If news of Conservative election broke early and they brought forward announcement, it should be dead heat. So surprised it settled rather than waiting a few hours.
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It's fair criticism, I don't think those criticising the Tories for electing Boris should shut up just because they'll never vote Tory. Ultimately the Lib Dems aim should be to help form a government and can anyone imagine Swinson in a senior post doing a better job than Davey?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.0 -
She’d have to enter into negotiations with the leaders of the oppositions.dixiedean said:
Then she would be obliged to continue in post.crandles said:What happens if T May says something like: "Well Your Majesty, Boris has more chance of commanding a majority of the Commons than anyone else but I cannot guarantee that he can and am even inclined to think he probably cannot"?
She could appear outside Downing Street to solemnly proclaim,
"Nothing has Changed!"...oh, and have another look at my WDA.0 -
From Mark Pack's website:JBriskinindyref2 said:
I don't have the previous figures for comparison - but my first reaction was rather shit - it's a postal ballot after all.rcs1000 said:
More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
"106,075 ballots were sent out and 76,429 votes cast, with a 72% turnout.
That turnout compares with 56% for the 2015 Farron-Lamb contest and 64% for the knife-edge Clegg-Huhne contest of 2007. Previous turnouts were 72% (2006), 62% (1999) and 72% (1988).0 -
Why do you think, however, that (straw poll based on most recent dozen or so posts) 100% of PB LDs who have declared, voted for Ed?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)0 -
It would be a sad explanation but maybe we PB’ers are closer to Ed’s demographic.TOPPING said:
Why do you think, however, that (straw poll based on most recent dozen or so posts) 100% of PB LDs who have declared, voted for Ed?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)0 -
So, in actual fact - a rather large turnout.logical_song said:
From Mark Pack's website:JBriskinindyref2 said:
I don't have the previous figures for comparison - but my first reaction was rather shit - it's a postal ballot after all.rcs1000 said:
More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout though
"106,075 ballots were sent out and 76,429 votes cast, with a 72% turnout.
That turnout compares with 56% for the 2015 Farron-Lamb contest and 64% for the knife-edge Clegg-Huhne contest of 2007. Previous turnouts were 72% (2006), 62% (1999) and 72% (1988).
My bad.
(tbh anything below 85pc is a bit low for me rant rant rant rant)0 -
After 31 year of being a member I have at last voted for s winner in a leadership election. All my previous voted have been for losers1
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Betfair have also just settled June 2019 as a loser in the Next GE Date market (by month).
3 weeks late!0 -
I voted for Jo in the end... after changing my mind twice. It really was that close a call.TOPPING said:
Why do you think, however, that (straw poll based on most recent dozen or so posts) 100% of PB LDs who have declared, voted for Ed?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)0 -
Looks like you missed an important one!TOPPING said:
Why do you think, however, that (straw poll based on most recent dozen or so posts) 100% of PB LDs who have declared, voted for Ed?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)0 -
The best may yet be to come for your choice.MikeSmithson said:After 31 year of being a member I have at last voted for s winner in a leadership election. All my previous voted have been for losers
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For better or worse, I broke the same duck with Clegg. And I’ve been a member longer than OGH!MikeSmithson said:After 31 year of being a member I have at last voted for s winner in a leadership election. All my previous voted have been for losers
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LOL! Oops!Richard_Nabavi said:
Looks like you missed an important one!TOPPING said:
Why do you think, however, that (straw poll based on most recent dozen or so posts) 100% of PB LDs who have declared, voted for Ed?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)0 -
The flip side of parties having fewer armchair members nowadays is that those they do have are more engaged.JBriskinindyref2 said:
So, in actual fact - a rather large turnout.logical_song said:
From Mark Pack's website:JBriskinindyref2 said:
I don't have the previous figures for comparison - but my first reaction was rather shit - it's a postal ballot after all.rcs1000 said:
More than 70% of LD members voted. I think that's pretty high.JBriskinindyref2 said:Shit turnout thoqugh
"106,075 ballots were sent out and 76,429 votes cast, with a 72% turnout.
That turnout compares with 56% for the 2015 Farron-Lamb contest and 64% for the knife-edge Clegg-Huhne contest of 2007. Previous turnouts were 72% (2006), 62% (1999) and 72% (1988).
My bad.
(tbh anything below 85pc is a bit low for me rant rant rant rant)0 -
Would she? Surely if she cannot recommend another candidate who could command a majority, she would be obliged to continue in post? After all, we have to have a PM.williamglenn said:
She’d have to enter into negotiations with the leaders of the oppositions.dixiedean said:
Then she would be obliged to continue in post.crandles said:What happens if T May says something like: "Well Your Majesty, Boris has more chance of commanding a majority of the Commons than anyone else but I cannot guarantee that he can and am even inclined to think he probably cannot"?
She could appear outside Downing Street to solemnly proclaim,
"Nothing has Changed!"...oh, and have another look at my WDA.
I suppose it would then be up to Parliament to VONC her, if they were so minded.0 -
This is ACTUALLY a very important point. A more decisive victory for Boris than Jo would be a big advantage for him. I think they will be similar. Boris was much the more impressive in the private stuff but then if you went to that sort of event you were probably open to voting for him in any case. The ultra Boris phobes at the events tended to be unmoved.kinabalu said:Great time to be taking over the LDs. She must be excited!
Ed Davey did well to get 38%. It would have been much closer, obviously, if Vince Cable had been a woman. That's what cost Sir Ed his chance - that Sir Vince had been unambiguously a man throughout his entire tenure, and not only that, a knight of the realm.
The optics of one 'Sir' handing over to another 'Sir' in a party that has never had a female leader did not bear thinking about.
I predict Hunt will not do as well as Davey. 28% for him tomorrow, I would imagine.0 -
I voted for Jo in the end.IanB2 said:
It would be a sad explanation but maybe we PB’ers are closer to Ed’s demographic.TOPPING said:
Why do you think, however, that (straw poll based on most recent dozen or so posts) 100% of PB LDs who have declared, voted for Ed?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
(apols if I missed a Jo-voter.)0 -
Brom said:
It's fair criticism, I don't think those criticising the Tories for electing Boris should shut up just because they'll never vote Tory. Ultimately the Lib Dems aim should be to help form a government and can anyone imagine Swinson in a senior post doing a better job than Davey?stodge said:Afternoon all
As usual, one or two of the usual "the LDs have got it wrong, If only they'd chosen the other candidate" and other such piffle from those who wouldn't vote for the LDs in a million years.
I'm quite happy with Jo as leader even though I voted for Ed and I'm delighted by the turnout and voting numbers. Compared with 2007, more voted for Jo than for NIck Clegg and Chris Huhne combined.
Obviously, I'll tell all the Conservatives they got it wrong on Wednesday when Boris wins - actually, I won't need to as there'll be plenty of Conservatives who'll do that for me.
She’ll be up against the great Bozo (if he lasts), and either Corbyn or Rebecca Wrong-Daily or Laura Pillock.
All things are relative.1 -
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As a LD you should be well used to that!MikeSmithson said:After 31 year of being a member I have at last voted for s winner in a leadership election. All my previous voted have been for losers
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Oh god @TheJezziah will have to clean down his memory and reboot. Is that smoke I can see over Islington right now?Scott_P said:1 -
No. It's code for "it's not done to admit I'm a misogynist". See also "urban".dixiedean said:
I don't find her "shrill". Give her a chance at least.Brom said:Lib Dems have really fucked up there. Too shrill and will lose her seat. Davey had top table experience and was the stronger candidate IMO.
Incidentally, are men ever shrill?0 -
Given the alternatives are a dim witted posh boy and Boris Johnson we could - and probably will - do far worse.Yorkcity said:
"A candidate for prime minister " she said.JackW said:Jo Swinson channeling her inner David Steel .....
Mk II - Return to your constituencies and prepare for government.
Hhhhmmm .....
No half measures.0 -
I applaud their caution. Anything can happen in politics these days. Just because we've never had a backdated election before....MikeL said:Betfair have also just settled June 2019 as a loser in the Next GE Date market (by month).
3 weeks late!0 -
The BBC reported it as 65%. Quite accurate for the BBC.JBriskinindyref2 said:Swinson 47900 63.1pc
Davey 28021 36.9pc
(via Sky)0 -
She? Not leaders of relevant largest parties?williamglenn said:
She’d have to enter into negotiations with the leaders of the oppositions.dixiedean said:
Then she would be obliged to continue in post.crandles said:What happens if T May says something like: "Well Your Majesty, Boris has more chance of commanding a majority of the Commons than anyone else but I cannot guarantee that he can and am even inclined to think he probably cannot"?
She could appear outside Downing Street to solemnly proclaim,
"Nothing has Changed!"...oh, and have another look at my WDA.0 -
Mike Smithson backs LibDem winner shocker - An omen ?!? ....MikeSmithson said:After 31 year of being a member I have at last voted for s winner in a leadership election. All my previous voted have been for losers
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Kept up me dubious record of always voting for the winner today. Didn't really mind whether Jo or Ed won but good to have a female leader. Am pleased the Tories will make the wrong choice tomorrow. Some months back met several middle ranking FCO staff and their thoughts on Bo-Jo were, being polite, uncomplimentary, the opposite for Jeremy Hunt. Guess backed up by Alan Duncan today.0
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If Raab is made the new foreign secretary, how many months before he says "actually I have just realised, the Straights of Hormuz are a very important shipping lane?"0
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I mean in order to get her deal passed. MV4 could have just her, Rory Stewart and Caroline Flint voting for it against the rest of the Commons.dixiedean said:
Would she? Surely if she cannot recommend another candidate who could command a majority, she would be obliged to continue in post? After all, we have to have a PM.williamglenn said:
She’d have to enter into negotiations with the leaders of the oppositions.dixiedean said:
Then she would be obliged to continue in post.crandles said:What happens if T May says something like: "Well Your Majesty, Boris has more chance of commanding a majority of the Commons than anyone else but I cannot guarantee that he can and am even inclined to think he probably cannot"?
She could appear outside Downing Street to solemnly proclaim,
"Nothing has Changed!"...oh, and have another look at my WDA.
I suppose it would then be up to Parliament to VONC her, if they were so minded.0 -
What an admission...MikeSmithson said:After 31 year of being a member I have at last voted for s winner in a leadership election. All my previous voted have been for losers
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Too little, too late and not acknowledging the reality of the situation.Scott_P said:
And unless he also acknowledges his own failings both in terms of positions taken/statements made/perpetrators supported and in failing to move quickly enough to resolve this, it won't move to shut this down as an issue.
Plus the idea of 'political education' is deeply unpleasant. It sounds more like teaching people to think the way Jeremy wants you to think rather than teaching people about critical thinking and the ethics of equality.0
