When a case is brought by Uraguay about why its beef is treated differently to Ireland's (despite there being no WTO-sanctioned FTA between us and Ireland), and we lose that case, what then?
How long would that case take to be heard? What are the penalties we could suffer, especially if a FTA had been arranged by the time the court case was heard.
Antigua started a court case vs USA over gambling in 2003, eventually won the case, awarded $21m per year, still received nothing and still complaining.
. Then ponder whether minds might be concentrated.
If we are in dispute with a Trump US govt the "punishment" will surely be via tariffs not the WTO.
That too.
The point I am trying to make, is that we know little about the WTO and as we did with the EU assume countries follow the rules that have been created. Whilst they generally may follow them, in practice many countries choose not to, the world doesnt end for them, if there is any punishment it could be a decade or two away, assuming the WTO still exists by then, which given Trumps view it may not.
Worrying about the WTO re the Irish border is probably unnecessary compared to other no deal problems.
Relying on the WTO to govern our trade and enforce our rights when we want to is a very bad idea for the same reasons, especially as we will tend to play by the rules more than our competitors.
I don't disagree. The point is that as the rules exist at the moment, not to mention the support that every ERGer has had for the WTO, the UK can't take the risk of a WTO MFN challenge actually succeeding which could lead to a border.
But I agree with you, it is hard to disagree with it. If you treat Trump like a normal candidate he will win. If you treat him like a racist and actually energise the Dem base he will lose and lose badly.
Suspicious of this tbh. The writer is very confident his approach is right, and it seems to be based on drawing a parallel between trump and duke, California and the US and the 1990s and today. Maybe he's right, but he seems overconfident given the limitations of his comparison.
I think you misread. Not LA as in Los Angeles, LA as in the state of Louisiana.
Fairly busy today so only noticing UK political developments out of the corner of my eye this morning, but even still the optic for the Tories looks much worse than I expected ahead of BoJo's getting into Number 10.
Looks like he will have at least 30 anti-ERG MPs to try to deal with and a significant block of cabinet ministers will refuse to serve under him.
In any event B&R together with up to 6 defections are going to leave him with no majority.
Seems like he is walking into a complete shit storm... from his own side.
Well he did more than anyone else to create it so sympathy will be in short supply.
Given the court case currently ongoing over Carl Beech and Operation Midland, I'd say a quiet period from both politicians and the media over allegations is the right thing to do.
That does not excuse silence to the alleged victims, though.
When a case is brought by Uraguay about why its beef is treated differently to Ireland's (despite there being no WTO-sanctioned FTA between us and Ireland), and we lose that case, what then?
How long would that case take to be heard? What are the penalties we could suffer, especially if a FTA had been arranged by the time the court case was heard.
Antigua started a court case vs USA over gambling in 2003, eventually won the case, awarded $21m per year, still received nothing and still complaining.
. Then ponder whether minds might be concentrated.
If we are in dispute with a Trump US govt the "punishment" will surely be via tariffs not the WTO.
That too.
The point I am trying to make, is that we
Relying on the WTO to govern our trade and enforce our rights when we want to is a very bad idea for the same reasons, especially as we will tend to play by the rules more than our competitors.
I don't disagree. The point is that as the rules exist at the moment, not to mention the support that every ERGer has had for the WTO, the UK can't take the risk of a WTO MFN challenge actually succeeding which could lead to a border.
Also, America and its economy are of such scale and internal size that it can treat the rules based order of the WTO with contempt in a way that we cannot. This is particularly so when trying to build new trading relationships.
Forgive my ignorance on this but I have no idea what problem HS2 was supposed to fix. In my experience the London-west midlands-north west routes are quick and frequent. Bloody expensive but I don’t think that is the issue.
shave 15 mins off London to Birmingham, nothing else. Cheap at 100B
The primary reason for it is expanding rail freight capacity over currently full lines, nothing to do with journey times between London and Birmingham.
Same as the Heathrow runway, LHR is so far over capacity that any adverse weather costs billions in delays and cancellations, not to mention the environmental cost of having hundreds of thousands of planes that currently spend hours going around in circles at low level close to London so they can squeeze them so close together on approach.
Another one that could be solved easier, faster and cheaper by expanding other airports
Quite. Who wants to travel to Heathrow if they could get to Manchester in about half the time, despite living in 'the south'? Well, S W Midlands. However, when I do fly, which isn't often these days, there are few cheap or mid-price long-haul flights except from Stansted, H'row or maybe Gatwick or Luton. (Unlike most of PB I've never gone 1st or business class...)
And I believe B'ham's runway isn't long enough for some aircraft, although that's pretty close too.
Agree, like everything else in UK it is all done to get everything London/south east centric and coining in the cash. We get all the hassle, inconvenience and cost.
Yes, who thought that Stansted was a good location for a principal airport for anyone not living in E.Anglia? The cheap flights usually leave from there, not Manchester.
Mr. Cooke, I would've gone for a second referendum over that. Membership of the customs union is both demented in and of itself, and directly contrary to what both sides said during the campaign. Better to remain honestly then have a pathetic departure in name only.
There's also no guarantee the pro-EU MPs wouldn't've just shifted the goal posts again.
The fact remains, the vast majority of MPs who opposed the deal are now bleating about there being no deal.
No shit, Sherlock.
Regardless of your (and my) views on the option, it remains true that it would have provided a Deal to allow us to leave the EU, ended our payments into the EU, removed us from the political structure of the EU, and so on.
If voting that down is legitimate, so is voting down the WA (after all, many of those who are needed to vote for it think that leaving itself is demented in and of itself and won't provide what either said during the campaign). I have little sympathy for those who are trying to simultaneously hold the view that we must leave come what may due to the referendum result AND that we mustn't leave in a specific way.
If you would have voted against that option, then you would have - in your own reasoning - voted for a No Deal Exit in that scenario, and would have no right to bleat about a crashout Brexit.
"There's also no guarantee the pro-EU MPs wouldn't've just shifted the goal posts again." - that's an excuse to reject anything else, though, isn't it? There's no guarantee they would have shifted the goalposts, especially as doing so would have had to be explicit after once voting for it.
Re- my own scary experience of a month ago , I have today been invited to attend an Identity Parade at my local Police Station . An arrest has been made.
Now I could go into the details of why what Boris wants is very difficult and will cost billions. But given the article he wrote I doubt he would understand the issue.
The Apollo software worked because it had 1 task and everyone was focused on achieving that task. A border will have millions of people trying to bypass and cheat it..
If nothing else that comment by Boris shows that he does not have a clue about what implementing a telematics solution to customs would involve.
That's not the point I would guess. The point is make people, especially Brexiteers, believe that it must be possible to develop a technical solution and, then, when one is not developed, Johnson and the Brexiteers can blame someone else for the failure of another unicorn.
Which is why anyone clueful is saying now that it isn’t possible. Mind you I do like the ability to turn around later and say I told you so.
Now it may well be that the Government gives someone a few billion to create a solution but until I’m on the receiving end of that cheque I’ll repeat the statement that it’s more a human issue than a technology one (and even then the technology won’t be easy).
The technological solution working on GPS and the equivalent of aviation flight plans works just fine and actually could be implemented soon. That software already exists.
But we’re not dealing with a technological problem, we’re dealing with a political problem.
Given their record on IT projects, you can guarantee there is no solution , they would spend 10 years , a few gazillions and it would not work. If there was indeed any hope of a solution someone would have actually described it by now or at worst tried to sell it to the idiots.
Re- my own scary experience of a month ago , I have today been invited to attend an Identity Parade at my local Police Station . An arrest has been made.
Hope they have caught the culprit Justin.
I have a friend who went through a similar experience a few months ago and I know it can be a traumatic experience
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
The Brexit Party won Dover in the European Parliament elections with the LDs second with about a third of the Brexit Party vote if there is a by election there
Re- my own scary experience of a month ago , I have today been invited to attend an Identity Parade at my local Police Station . An arrest has been made.
Best of luck, I went to one of those years ago - wasn't selected as one of the decoys but got paid a fiver for my troubles iirc.
"Priti Patel is being considered for a shock cabinet return as home secretary, The Independent has learned, as Boris Johnson seeks to convince the public he is not a “British Donald Trump”."
Mr. Cooke, it is legitimate to say the customs union business would've increased the chances of a deal passing. However, the CU did fail to win its vote. And there were other options (less boneheaded in nature) available.
A second referendum as a threat if a second attempt at the deal failed would've secured more votes, and, had it then failed, would've delivered the mechanism by which progress, in whichever direction, could have occurred.
The fact remains that those pro-EU MPs now shrieking about leaving with no deal are the very ones who enabled it. And yes, they can point at the ERG and say "They did it too!". And that's correct. But the ERG did it on purpose.
Pro-EU MPs who opposed the deal with no means of enforcing a second referendum or straight revocation are like the ERG, but more stupid and hypocritical. [Edited extra bit: and more numerous].
It is fair to highlight May's inadequacy (you prefer to focus on the lack of a CU addition, I prefer the second referendum threat), but ultimately MPs decided. They decided not to support a deal. Now they're upset there's no deal. Whoever could've foreseen this turn of events?
As with Tory members, Labour members are living in a bubble unaware of how normal people feel about it. There are many millions who would be delighted right now to have a Labour party alternative they could simply tolerate to vote for to get rid of the Tory ERG from power.
It should not be a difficult ask. Whether it is fair or not, or the media are to blame shouldnt matter. If there is an easy way to improve the lives of millions of people, such as electing a new Labour leader and govt, to prevent the ERG meltdown we are all about to suffer it is inexcusable to simply say it is not being fair on Jeremy. Surely Labour is supposed to be about the collective good not the individual?
I wasn't expressing a personal preference, just saying what I think is happening. The member in Snoddington West has no way of actually changing anything, so he's just expressing his view. The MP is merely expressing the same view as before. If there's a swing vote that made a difference, it would be among MPs who previously backed Jeremy. That's why it's worth keeping an eye on what McDonnell says - the shift in Brexit position followed his public pressure within a few weeks, and he's been vocal on the need to address the anti-semitism stuff too.
Re- my own scary experience of a month ago , I have today been invited to attend an Identity Parade at my local Police Station . An arrest has been made.
Lucky given they said only 7% of crimes are being solved.
As with all minority/small majority governments events are grinding them down. Boris is going to be short of a majority even if the DUP can be bribed to stay onside. A GE looks absolutely nailed on to me whether he wants it or not.
And as for May, well a little bit of quiet reflection might be more appropriate.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
The Brexit Party won Dover in the European Parliament elections with the LDs second with about a third of the Brexit Party vote if there is a by election there
I seem to remember you telling us that the Brexit party won Peterborough in the European elections and their victory in the by-election that followed would happen as predictable as night follows day! Labour won Peterborough despite the reason for the by-election, Corbyn and the problems Labour are percieved to have.
Re- my own scary experience of a month ago , I have today been invited to attend an Identity Parade at my local Police Station . An arrest has been made.
Best of luck, I went to one of those years ago - wasn't selected as one of the decoys but got paid a fiver for my troubles iirc.
I did it many years ago , got 5 shillings. My mate who also did it was very like suspect , he was sweating like mad. Worth it though as it got us 2 pints of lager each for the 5 bob.
Mr. Cooke, it is legitimate to say the customs union business would've increased the chances of a deal passing. However, the CU did fail to win its vote. And there were other options (less boneheaded in nature) available.
A second referendum as a threat if a second attempt at the deal failed would've secured more votes, and, had it then failed, would've delivered the mechanism by which progress, in whichever direction, could have occurred.
The fact remains that those pro-EU MPs now shrieking about leaving with no deal are the very ones who enabled it. And yes, they can point at the ERG and say "They did it too!". And that's correct. But the ERG did it on purpose.
Pro-EU MPs who opposed the deal with no means of enforcing a second referendum or straight revocation are like the ERG, but more stupid and hypocritical. [Edited extra bit: and more numerous].
It is fair to highlight May's inadequacy (you prefer to focus on the lack of a CU addition, I prefer the second referendum threat), but ultimately MPs decided. They decided not to support a deal. Now they're upset there's no deal. Whoever could've foreseen this turn of events?
The CU would not at all have been my preference, but it did garner the greatest support in the Indicative Votes rounds (which all had the Government payroll vote abstaining) - or, at least, the best combination of support against least resistance. It would certainly have been the compromise with the best chance of getting through.
The second referendum Indicative Vote failed by 27 votes and I agree it would have been a better option - but the failure of that being put forwards isn't down to the MPs who disliked the WA but the Government who assiduously refused to put it forwards.
Telling MPs that they have to vote for something they see is hugely boneheaded when there are other alternatives available (you and I have isolated two straight away - the CU amendment and the "pass-subject-to-referendum" alternative; the Single Market amendment was also there as well. In fact, of the Indicative Vote options, only No Deal, "Managed No Deal", EFTA membership, and straight Revocation look to be unavailable.
No, it's the Government wailing "Look at what you made me do", like an abusive spouse, when they had a number of alternatives.
Occasionally in the past I have suffered from blurry vision. Nothing too worrying but nevertheless a bit of a pain since it makes it hard to read things properly. It's been over a year since the last bout of this, thankfully, and I was just getting to think it might be a thing of the past. But no - bad news - it would appear that the problem has resurfaced today. At least I think it has. Because it's either that or Jacob Rees Mogg actually IS the clear bookies favourite to be the next Foreign Secretary.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
The Brexit Party won Dover in the European Parliament elections with the LDs second with about a third of the Brexit Party vote if there is a by election there
I seem to remember you telling us that the Brexit party won Peterborough in the European elections and their victory in the by-election that followed would happen as predictable as night follows day! Labour won Peterborough despite the reason for the by-election, Corbyn and the problems Labour are percieved to have.
Labour was closer to the Brexit Party in Peterborough in 2nd in the European Parliament elections than the 2nd placed LDs were to the Brexit Party in Dover in the European Parliament elections and the Tories and Brexit Party still got over 50% of the vote combined in Peterborough with the Brexit Party just a few hundred votes behind Labour in the by election.
Either the Tories with a Boris bounce and new candidate or Brexit Party would win Dover
Re- my own scary experience of a month ago , I have today been invited to attend an Identity Parade at my local Police Station . An arrest has been made.
Lucky given they said only 7% of crimes are being solved.
There have been other knife attacks in the area recently - so the arrest may not relate to the same incident. However, there was intense police activity in response to my own experience - apparently 8 police vehicles plus their helicopter were seen.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
Was this one of the things about No Deal that the head of the civil service pointed out to Boris when they met, which left the future PM quaking reportedly?
As with Tory members, Labour members are living in a bubble unaware of how normal people feel about it. There are many millions who would be delighted right now to have a Labour party alternative they could simply tolerate to vote for to get rid of the Tory ERG from power.
It should not be a difficult ask. Whether it is fair or not, or the media are to blame shouldnt matter. If there is an easy way to improve the lives of millions of people, such as electing a new Labour leader and govt, to prevent the ERG meltdown we are all about to suffer it is inexcusable to simply say it is not being fair on Jeremy. Surely Labour is supposed to be about the collective good not the individual?
I wasn't expressing a personal preference, just saying what I think is happening. The member in Snoddington West has no way of actually changing anything, so he's just expressing his view. The MP is merely expressing the same view as before. If there's a swing vote that made a difference, it would be among MPs who previously backed Jeremy. That's why it's worth keeping an eye on what McDonnell says - the shift in Brexit position followed his public pressure within a few weeks, and he's been vocal on the need to address the anti-semitism stuff too.
It was not meant to be a personal criticism. It is not even a criticism of Labour members, it is a criticism of members collectively across all the political parties including Tory and LD as well. In their search for purity they have completely forgotten about acting in the interests of improving the lives of the people across the nation. It is a betrayal of responsibility.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
So so far we have the following winning
Lib Dems Brexit Labour Tory.....
Good old PB...
I’d bet on the Brexit party in a by-election in Dover in the short term at odds of anything better than 1/2 and I’d regard any losses as educational.
Wasn’t Peterborough educational?
Nigel Farage led parties are crap in FPTP elections.
If they don’t win here they won’t win anywhere. A clear three way marginal with strong pre-existing UKIP support. This should be easy for them.
I could see Lab, Con or TBP winning.
Lab: Remainers vote tactically since LD's hopeless, TBP and Con split ineffectively TBP: They pick up a lot of voters from Con and (to a lesser extent) Lab, Lab is split by LD enough that they don't win Con: Same as the above except with TBP not picking up quite so many and Con's existing lead seeing them through
Part of the unpredictability is in knowing how voters will response to Boris PM. Do Lab->LD switchers become more willing to vote tactically to harm a hated PM, or does an even stronger Brexit obsession cause them to dig in further? Do Con->TBP switchers "come home" to a more Leaver-y party, or has Boris by now failed, driving even more away?
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
The Brexit Party won Dover in the European Parliament elections with the LDs second with about a third of the Brexit Party vote if there is a by election there
I seem to remember you telling us that the Brexit party won Peterborough in the European elections and their victory in the by-election that followed would happen as predictable as night follows day! Labour won Peterborough despite the reason for the by-election, Corbyn and the problems Labour are percieved to have.
Labour was closer to the Brexit Party in Peterborough in 2nd in the European Parliament elections than the 2nd placed LDs were to the Brexit Party in Dover in the European Parliament elections and the Tories and Brexit Party still got over 50% of the vote combined in Peterborough with the Brexit Party just a few hundred votes behind Labour in the by election.
Either the Tories with a Boris bounce and new candidate or Brexit Party would win Dover
Yes and I'm sure if you get that prediction wrong too you'll find some other post-hoc explanation
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
As I said, dumb but apparently sincere. Will deal with the people having jobs problem but they still may be able to afford the occasional fattening EU made Mars bar while on benefits.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
The death cult is becoming more and more loosely tethered to reality. This is a group who, when they hear that civil servants are advising Boris Johnson that fresh food was only the third priority on a disorderly no deal Brexit and that civil unrest was possible, shrug and say that is to be expected from civil servants rather than wondering why people whose reputation depends on giving accurate and impartial advice are giving this advice.
As @HYUFD shows, this is a group that sees every negative as a price worth paying. Pyres of sheep, rationing of confectionery? Deal with it.
No wonder they're completely failing to make converts.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
So so far we have the following winning
Lib Dems Brexit Labour Tory.....
Good old PB...
I’d bet on the Brexit party in a by-election in Dover in the short term at odds of anything better than 1/2 and I’d regard any losses as educational.
Wasn’t Peterborough educational?
Nigel Farage led parties are crap in FPTP elections.
If they don’t win here they won’t win anywhere. A clear three way marginal with strong pre-existing UKIP support. This should be easy for them.
I could see Lab, Con or TBP winning.
Lab: Remainers vote tactically since LD's hopeless, TBP and Con split ineffectively TBP: They pick up a lot of voters from Con and (to a lesser extent) Lab, Lab is split by LD enough that they don't win Con: Same as the above except with TBP not picking up quite so many and Con's existing lead seeing them through
Part of the unpredictability is in knowing how voters will response to Boris PM. Do Lab->LD switchers become more willing to vote tactically to harm a hated PM, or does an even stronger Brexit obsession cause them to dig in further? Do Con->TBP switchers "come home" to a more Leaver-y party, or has Boris by now failed, driving even more away?
The LDs beat Labour and the Tories in Dover in the European Parliament elections though the Brexit Party came first
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
So so far we have the following winning
Lib Dems Brexit Labour Tory.....
Good old PB...
I’d bet on the Brexit party in a by-election in Dover in the short term at odds of anything better than 1/2 and I’d regard any losses as educational.
Wasn’t Peterborough educational?
Nigel Farage led parties are crap in FPTP elections.
If they don’t win here they won’t win anywhere. A clear three way marginal with strong pre-existing UKIP support. This should be easy for them.
I could see Lab, Con or TBP winning.
Lab: Remainers vote tactically since LD's hopeless, TBP and Con split ineffectively TBP: They pick up a lot of voters from Con and (to a lesser extent) Lab, Lab is split by LD enough that they don't win Con: Same as the above except with TBP not picking up quite so many and Con's existing lead seeing them through
Part of the unpredictability is in knowing how voters will response to Boris PM. Do Lab->LD switchers become more willing to vote tactically to harm a hated PM, or does an even stronger Brexit obsession cause them to dig in further? Do Con->TBP switchers "come home" to a more Leaver-y party, or has Boris by now failed, driving even more away?
The LDs beat Labour and the Tories in Dover in the European Parliament elections though the Brexit Party came first
I suppose it's possible I'm underestimating just how strong the swing is, but I'm not convinced by that statistic. EU elections are different from Westminster
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
How not to win marginal voters in a hung parliament 101.
Incredibly these two are in the same party.
I do wonder how on earth Boris is going to hold the party together.
He probably isn't. Most of his loudest fans don't seem to think holding the party together is any sort of priority, which is incredibly dense.
It should be as much as a priority as it has been for the last few decades a priority while one side of the debate got ignored, marginalised and called 'bastards'.
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Yet you were happy with the Poundshop Gordon Brown who literally claimed that No Deal was better than a bad deal?
How not to win marginal voters in a hung parliament 101.
Incredibly these two are in the same party.
I do wonder how on earth Boris is going to hold the party together.
He probably isn't. Most of his loudest fans don't seem to think holding the party together is any sort of priority, which is incredibly dense.
It should be as much as a priority as it has been for the last few decades a priority while one side of the debate got ignored, marginalised and called 'bastards'.
While the other side triumphantly led Britain into the Euro? Which parallel universe do you live in?
Presumably there won't be a by-election in Dover for many months if at all. Assuming a GE doesn't intervene, then before that we'll either have missed the October 31st deadline and still be in the EU, in which case I'd expect the Brexit Party to win, or we'll have crashed out with no deal (I can't see any way Boris can get us out with a deal in the current parliament). The latter scenario is particularly interesting because Dover and the surrounding area will be hit badly by the chaos of no deal. The result will therefore hinge on whether Farage gets a share of the blame.
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Yet you were happy with the Poundshop Gordon Brown who literally claimed that No Deal was better than a bad deal?
Nope. I said it was stupid, I accurately predicted once she was faced with the reality of No Deal she'd blink, I think the same about Boris, but in this instance the chance of an accidental No Deal is much more higher in October 2019 than March 2019.
We are trully in Alice in Wonderland territory. Norman Lamont is talking sense! He is saying we are causing terrible suffering to the ordinary Iranian people with our support for US sanctions and we should not be supporting them.
In other news Israelis back to their old habits of demolishing Palestinian homes from areas they have no authority over. The EU and UN have objected but as ever they will be ignored
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Yet you were happy with the Poundshop Gordon Brown who literally claimed that No Deal was better than a bad deal?
Nope. I said it was stupid, I accurately predicted once she was faced with the reality of No Deal she'd blink, I think the same about Boris, but in this instance the chance of an accidental No Deal is much more higher in October 2019 than March 2019.
Is it higher? One thing about May is that she couldn't in reality be VONCed by Parliament. We will not be certain about that by Thursday.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
The Brexit Party won Dover in the European Parliament elections with the LDs second with about a third of the Brexit Party vote if there is a by election there
I seem to remember you telling us that the Brexit party won Peterborough in the European elections and their victory in the by-election that followed would happen as predictable as night follows day! Labour won Peterborough despite the reason for the by-election, Corbyn and the problems Labour are percieved to have.
Labour was closer to the Brexit Party in Peterborough in 2nd in the European Parliament elections than the 2nd placed LDs were to the Brexit Party in Dover in the European Parliament elections and the Tories and Brexit Party still got over 50% of the vote combined in Peterborough with the Brexit Party just a few hundred votes behind Labour in the by election.
Either the Tories with a Boris bounce and new candidate or Brexit Party would win Dover
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Yet you were happy with the Poundshop Gordon Brown who literally claimed that No Deal was better than a bad deal?
Nope. I said it was stupid, I accurately predicted once she was faced with the reality of No Deal she'd blink, I think the same about Boris, but in this instance the chance of an accidental No Deal is much more higher in October 2019 than March 2019.
Is it higher? One thing about May is that she couldn't in reality be VONCed by Parliament. We will not be certain about that by Thursday.
Given the extremely narrow window in which Parliament might be able to prevent no deal, even a successful VONC guarantees nothing.
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
Yes, some of us are going to have to do some soul-searching. I have said I would resign and I am a member of the don't underestimate the status quo bias in politics club. I think I will wait to see what happens around October 31st to see how the land lies. If things are volatile to the point of a VONC, or some putsch or somesuch then I will stay to be able to vote again. If we seem to have reached some kind of plateau and he is likely to go nowhere then I will leave.
And I appreciate that does sound flaky, but any time I worry about such a dilemma I glance over to Jeremy Corbyn and feel that however hypocritical or misguided I will be, I will do all I can to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
Yet you were happy with the Poundshop Gordon Brown who literally claimed that No Deal was better than a bad deal?
Nope. I said it was stupid, I accurately predicted once she was faced with the reality of No Deal she'd blink, I think the same about Boris, but in this instance the chance of an accidental No Deal is much more higher in October 2019 than March 2019.
Is it higher? One thing about May is that she couldn't in reality be VONCed by Parliament. We will not be certain about that by Thursday.
Given the extremely narrow window in which Parliament might be able to prevent no deal, even a successful VONC guarantees nothing.
Well indeed. However, my argument is that it has now become a feasible tactic to be employed.
A good 40% swing to the Lib Dems would do nicely in Dover. 👨🍳
So so far we have the following winning
Lib Dems Brexit Labour Tory.....
Good old PB...
I’d bet on the Brexit party in a by-election in Dover in the short term at odds of anything better than 1/2 and I’d regard any losses as educational.
Wasn’t Peterborough educational?
Nigel Farage led parties are crap in FPTP elections.
If they don’t win here they won’t win anywhere. A clear three way marginal with strong pre-existing UKIP support. This should be easy for them.
I could see Lab, Con or TBP winning.
Lab: Remainers vote tactically since LD's hopeless, TBP and Con split ineffectively TBP: They pick up a lot of voters from Con and (to a lesser extent) Lab, Lab is split by LD enough that they don't win Con: Same as the above except with TBP not picking up quite so many and Con's existing lead seeing them through
Part of the unpredictability is in knowing how voters will response to Boris PM. Do Lab->LD switchers become more willing to vote tactically to harm a hated PM, or does an even stronger Brexit obsession cause them to dig in further? Do Con->TBP switchers "come home" to a more Leaver-y party, or has Boris by now failed, driving even more away?
The LDs beat Labour and the Tories in Dover in the European Parliament elections though the Brexit Party came first
First base for most electoral contests nowadays is that it’s a LibDem v BXP contest. Given the electoral history of Dover (esp UKIP vote in 2015) surely BXP are favourites. Although a lot depends on the timescale and whether Elphicke will stick it out or resign fairly soon.
Is it higher? One thing about May is that she couldn't in reality be VONCed by Parliament. We will not be certain about that by Thursday.
In March 2019 we had a PM (and the Chancellor, Foreign, Brexit, International Trade & Business Secretaries plus the Gover) intent on respecting the will of Parliament (and Vote Leave's campaign pledge) to avoid a No Deal Brexit.
In October 2019 we aren't likely to have that, Johnson has said he will not listen to Parliament on that front. He's going to be surrounded by the likes of Patel and IDS who think No Deal will be fab.
So we have a Johnson ministry VONC'd and there's no guarantee a GONU will emerge, so effectively fall out of the EU whilst there's a general election campaign, as I'd expect the result to be an even more hung Parliament.
Plus there'd be no guarantee of the EU guaranteeing us an extension (they want to move on to other stuff, they have other issues other than Brexit.)
The other option is revocation but unless the Lib Dems win a majority I cannot see that happening.
Presumably there won't be a by-election in Dover for many months if at all. Assuming a GE doesn't intervene, then before that we'll either have missed the October 31st deadline and still be in the EU, in which case I'd expect the Brexit Party to win, or we'll have crashed out with no deal (I can't see any way Boris can get us out with a deal in the current parliament). The latter scenario is particularly interesting because Dover and the surrounding area will be hit badly by the chaos of no deal. The result will therefore hinge on whether Farage gets a share of the blame.
All agreed. 2 things about Dover 1 - due to location it's difficult to get boots on the ground for a by-election (even worse than Brecon if you don't start in London) so likely to favour parties with existing infrastructure 2 - good luck to anyone trying to bull***t this constituency about customs arrangements.
I reckon the best the opposition can hope for is that Dover has no MP in October.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
It’s not OK to joke about HYUFD being expelled from Epping Conservatives for being a Remain traitor.
We are trully in Alice in Wonderland territory. Norman Lamont is talking sense! He is saying we are causing terrible suffering to the ordinary Iranian people with our support for US sanctions and we should not be supporting them.
However, out of empathy, we are considering imposing sanctions on ourselves from the 31st of October.
“Trade is not about control but about power. The UK has little power against its bigger neighbour. If it wanted power it should have stayed in the EU, or at the very least in Thatcher’s single market. Johnson sacrificed such power to outflank his rivals for the leadership. He must now pay the price for that chicanery. An awful awakening beckons.”
Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.
These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
Boris having a laugh about it as he crashes us out with no deal ?
One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st. Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.
Comments
Lib Dems
Brexit
Labour
Tory.....
Good old PB...
That does not excuse silence to the alleged victims, though.
Bye!
If voting that down is legitimate, so is voting down the WA (after all, many of those who are needed to vote for it think that leaving itself is demented in and of itself and won't provide what either said during the campaign). I have little sympathy for those who are trying to simultaneously hold the view that we must leave come what may due to the referendum result AND that we mustn't leave in a specific way.
If you would have voted against that option, then you would have - in your own reasoning - voted for a No Deal Exit in that scenario, and would have no right to bleat about a crashout Brexit.
"There's also no guarantee the pro-EU MPs wouldn't've just shifted the goal posts again." - that's an excuse to reject anything else, though, isn't it? There's no guarantee they would have shifted the goalposts, especially as doing so would have had to be explicit after once voting for it.
I have a friend who went through a similar experience a few months ago and I know it can be a traumatic experience
I agree, it isn't likely to go down to 311 (yet) but these are turbulent times.
A second referendum as a threat if a second attempt at the deal failed would've secured more votes, and, had it then failed, would've delivered the mechanism by which progress, in whichever direction, could have occurred.
The fact remains that those pro-EU MPs now shrieking about leaving with no deal are the very ones who enabled it. And yes, they can point at the ERG and say "They did it too!". And that's correct. But the ERG did it on purpose.
Pro-EU MPs who opposed the deal with no means of enforcing a second referendum or straight revocation are like the ERG, but more stupid and hypocritical. [Edited extra bit: and more numerous].
It is fair to highlight May's inadequacy (you prefer to focus on the lack of a CU addition, I prefer the second referendum threat), but ultimately MPs decided. They decided not to support a deal. Now they're upset there's no deal. Whoever could've foreseen this turn of events?
And as for May, well a little bit of quiet reflection might be more appropriate.
Nigel Farage led parties are crap in FPTP elections.
The second referendum Indicative Vote failed by 27 votes and I agree it would have been a better option - but the failure of that being put forwards isn't down to the MPs who disliked the WA but the Government who assiduously refused to put it forwards.
Telling MPs that they have to vote for something they see is hugely boneheaded when there are other alternatives available (you and I have isolated two straight away - the CU amendment and the "pass-subject-to-referendum" alternative; the Single Market amendment was also there as well. In fact, of the Indicative Vote options, only No Deal, "Managed No Deal", EFTA membership, and straight Revocation look to be unavailable.
No, it's the Government wailing "Look at what you made me do", like an abusive spouse, when they had a number of alternatives.
https://twitter.com/timothy_stanley/status/1153243158488240128?s=20
Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554
Either the Tories with a Boris bounce and new candidate or Brexit Party would win Dover
No Deal is going to be utter disaster. Let's hope Boris was lying to ERG all along.
Lab: Remainers vote tactically since LD's hopeless, TBP and Con split ineffectively
TBP: They pick up a lot of voters from Con and (to a lesser extent) Lab, Lab is split by LD enough that they don't win
Con: Same as the above except with TBP not picking up quite so many and Con's existing lead seeing them through
Part of the unpredictability is in knowing how voters will response to Boris PM. Do Lab->LD switchers become more willing to vote tactically to harm a hated PM, or does an even stronger Brexit obsession cause them to dig in further? Do Con->TBP switchers "come home" to a more Leaver-y party, or has Boris by now failed, driving even more away?
I do wonder how on earth Boris is going to hold the party together.
As @HYUFD shows, this is a group that sees every negative as a price worth paying. Pyres of sheep, rationing of confectionery? Deal with it.
No wonder they're completely failing to make converts.
https://twitter.com/zerohedge/status/1153275627321139200
Just imagine if a country hadn't raised interest rates during the good times...
Meanwhile, in other news:
https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/news/2019/07/england-rated-uks-worst-performer-devolving-power?utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_term=
Tens of thousands
No deal is better than a bad deal
We're leaving on 31st October.
In other news Israelis back to their old habits of demolishing Palestinian homes from areas they have no authority over. The EU and UN have objected but as ever they will be ignored
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1152256829235314688
And I appreciate that does sound flaky, but any time I worry about such a dilemma I glance over to Jeremy Corbyn and feel that however hypocritical or misguided I will be, I will do all I can to stop Corbyn becoming PM.
In October 2019 we aren't likely to have that, Johnson has said he will not listen to Parliament on that front. He's going to be surrounded by the likes of Patel and IDS who think No Deal will be fab.
So we have a Johnson ministry VONC'd and there's no guarantee a GONU will emerge, so effectively fall out of the EU whilst there's a general election campaign, as I'd expect the result to be an even more hung Parliament.
Plus there'd be no guarantee of the EU guaranteeing us an extension (they want to move on to other stuff, they have other issues other than Brexit.)
The other option is revocation but unless the Lib Dems win a majority I cannot see that happening.
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/07/louisiana-gretna-police-ocasio-cortez-shot-facebook.html
1 - due to location it's difficult to get boots on the ground for a by-election (even worse than Brecon if you don't start in London) so likely to favour parties with existing infrastructure
2 - good luck to anyone trying to bull***t this constituency about customs arrangements.
I reckon the best the opposition can hope for is that Dover has no MP in October.
Still, on the positive side, HYUFD is doing his best to keep us entertained.
However, he's probably been lying to almost everyone.
He'll face a decision soon as to which of his whoppers he's told he has to (accidently) make true.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/22/boris-johnson-avoid-irish-backstop-fly-moon
Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.