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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Betting on the next Foreign Secretary

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  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992

    dixiedean said:

    Is it higher? One thing about May is that she couldn't in reality be VONCed by Parliament. We will not be certain about that by Thursday.

    In March 2019 we had a PM (and the Chancellor, Foreign, Brexit, International Trade & Business Secretaries plus the Gover) intent on respecting the will of Parliament (and Vote Leave's campaign pledge) to avoid a No Deal Brexit.

    In October 2019 we aren't likely to have that, Johnson has said he will not listen to Parliament on that front. He's going to be surrounded by the likes of Patel and IDS who think No Deal will be fab.

    So we have a Johnson ministry VONC'd and there's no guarantee a GONU will emerge, so effectively fall out of the EU whilst there's a general election campaign, as I'd expect the result to be an even more hung Parliament.

    Plus there'd be no guarantee of the EU guaranteeing us an extension (they want to move on to other stuff, they have other issues other than Brexit.)

    The other option is revocation but unless the Lib Dems win a majority I cannot see that happening.
    Fall out of the EU DURING an election campaign. I remember floating that chance, somewhat light-heartedly, some months ago, when considering the Tories' nightmare scenario.
    Now, I see, it is being seriously considered.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    Off-topic:

    An (ahem) unusual new bridge design has been proposed for London:
    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/07/10/rolling-bridge-proposed-for-east-london/
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    edited July 2019

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It’s not OK to joke about HYUFD being expelled from Epping Conservatives for being a Remain traitor.
    *That* is a matter of the utmost seriousness. Just as well no one from Epping Conservatives apart from our mole @HYUFD would dream of visiting the pinko, remoaning, whining, traitorous website that is PB.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,313
    Scott_P said:
    Yet Labour leavers like the Green Party more than they like the Brexit Party.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    Pulpstar said:

    One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st.
    Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.

    I think they are sick to death of us cocking around and frankly, with Boris as PM, I expect their patience to last no longer than 11:59:59:999 on 30th October (or one millisecond before whenever it is we do leave if it's on the 31st) and for there to be parties across the continent thereafter.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,526
    Folks, we've got a potential new Sion Simon type article out now.

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1153277868329357313
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,713
    Pulpstar said:

    One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st.
    Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.

    How would that happen? If the Head of Government of a nation state in the EU being under the timetable of Article 50 notification for withdrawal, refuses to request an extension, how can the EU grant one?

    I could understand if the Head of State requested one, but if neither the Head of State nor Head of Government of the United Kingdom want an extension, how could one be engineered legally?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,285
    edited July 2019
    Question...why would the triads want to support the hong kong government plan to make it easier to send criminals to the mainland? Surely they are the sort of people most at risk from such a new law.
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,791
    Scott_P said:
    Greens and lib dems most highly rated across the board and only unpopular with tory leavers. Lets have that electoral pact.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101
  • Options
    swing_voterswing_voter Posts: 1,435
    I would have perhaps thought Tom Tugendhat is worth a long shot (current chair of foreign affairs select committee) though no big fan of boris
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,992
    edited July 2019

    Question...why would the triads want to support the hong kong government plan to make it easier to send criminals to the mainland? Surely they are the sort of people most at risk from such a new law.

    Not really. Triads have a long, centuries in fact, history of being an arms length agent of the Chinese State. They often do the "unofficial" "law" enforcement, without the government's fingerprints on it, as they did in Taiwan with the Sunflower movement. They also provide information about run of the mill crime, thus saving the Police doing any work.
    Think of Group 4 running prisons. More violently, but the principle is similar.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    Having worked in the past for Mars for 18 years I have an empathy for those still employed by them. I do think that resorting to humour to deflect from a crass statement made by the next PM is difficult to understand.
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st.
    Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.

    I think they are sick to death of us cocking around and frankly, with Boris as PM, I expect their patience to last no longer than 11:59:59:999 on 30th October (or one millisecond before whenever it is we do leave if it's on the 31st) and for there to be parties across the continent thereafter.
    Including in this country.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    Having worked in the past for Mars for 18 years I have an empathy for those still employed by them. I do think that resorting to humour to deflect from a crass statement made by the next PM is difficult to understand.
    So will we be able to get Mars bars in a no deal situation?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    Pulpstar said:

    One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st.
    Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.

    How would that happen? If the Head of Government of a nation state in the EU being under the timetable of Article 50 notification for withdrawal, refuses to request an extension, how can the EU grant one?

    I could understand if the Head of State requested one, but if neither the Head of State nor Head of Government of the United Kingdom want an extension, how could one be engineered legally?
    I think it can possibly be engineered by parliament mandating it. After all, parliament is sovereign; we have already seen how the Cooper-Boles wheeze managed to pass an Act of Parliament in a few days, despite being opposed by government. If parliament manages to bring off something similar, with help from a cooperative Speaker, and decides to appoint Larry the Cat to be our High Representative for Article 50 Extension, then Larry the Cat it is. (For this reason I disagree with David Herdson's piece on Saturday, or at least I think it's not clear that he was right that a VONC is the only way).
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,101

    TOPPING said:

    Pulpstar said:

    One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st.
    Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.

    I think they are sick to death of us cocking around and frankly, with Boris as PM, I expect their patience to last no longer than 11:59:59:999 on 30th October (or one millisecond before whenever it is we do leave if it's on the 31st) and for there to be parties across the continent thereafter.
    Including in this country.
    Admitting that this country is part of the European continent is worth 10 Remoaner points.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    On the Elphicke case (sorry if this has been covered below); it seems as though the trial is scheduled for September. What will the Conservatives do if an election is called before the trial is concluded?
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    tlg86 said:

    I see Mr O'Brien has had a difficult few days...

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1152256829235314688

    Well that's how working class folk in Newcastle like Darren sort out their arguments. Hire an expensive silk.
  • Options
    edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,151

    On the Elphicke case (sorry if this has been covered below); it seems as though the trial is scheduled for September. What will the Conservatives do if an election is called before the trial is concluded?

    Select someone else, shorely?

    One less vote for an early election there...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942

    Pulpstar said:

    One possible path I can see is that parliament basically votes to stop no deal, it is not implemented by Boris Johnson... but the EU keeps us in anyway above the head of the Prime Minister come October 31st.
    Might sound outlandish but I think it's a real possibility.

    How would that happen? If the Head of Government of a nation state in the EU being under the timetable of Article 50 notification for withdrawal, refuses to request an extension, how can the EU grant one?

    I could understand if the Head of State requested one, but if neither the Head of State nor Head of Government of the United Kingdom want an extension, how could one be engineered legally?
    It's one of those "ways out" that satisfies everyone's previous statements, avoids No deal, avoids a VONC, avoids an election. So by the golden political betting rules of betting against things happening it is a definite runner.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    Having worked in the past for Mars for 18 years I have an empathy for those still employed by them. I do think that resorting to humour to deflect from a crass statement made by the next PM is difficult to understand.
    So will we be able to get Mars bars in a no deal situation?
    If you do they may well come from veghel in the Netherlands the Twitter thread from Chris Chilton explains the issues at stake in terms of Slough manufactured filled chocolate bars given the potential problems of importing materials that need to be kept warm.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
    She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.

    Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
    I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
    I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
    Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
    I actually think it is reasonable to wait to see what Johnson does on October 31st. There is always the dilemma of hanging on to be able to vote in the next leadership election , which in the Tory's case could be fairly soon. I didn't leave Labour the second Corbyn was elected I only went after the membership doubled down on that decision.

    Out of interest does anyone know if Labour still allows people to join after a leadership contest is announced?

    I would certainly vote LD right now but don't underestimate the obstacle that is FPTP. I think there is a possibility that the LDs could reach a tipping point, unfortunately I am not sure either of the leadership candidates, decent though they are, has what it takes to do that. With only 8 MPs at the time I think the party was unwise not to have opened the leadership ballot up to former MPs as well as existing ones.
  • Options
    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,238
    OllyT said:

    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
    She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.

    Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
    I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
    I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
    Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
    I actually think it is reasonable to wait to see what Johnson does on October 31st. There is always the dilemma of hanging on to be able to vote in the next leadership election , which in the Tory's case could be fairly soon. I didn't leave Labour the second Corbyn was elected I only went after the membership doubled down on that decision.

    Out of interest does anyone know if Labour still allows people to join after a leadership contest is announced?

    I would certainly vote LD right now but don't underestimate the obstacle that is FPTP. I think there is a possibility that the LDs could reach a tipping point, unfortunately I am not sure either of the leadership candidates, decent though they are, has what it takes to do that. With only 8 MPs at the time I think the party was unwise not to have opened the leadership ballot up to former MPs as well as existing ones.
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054

    On the Elphicke case (sorry if this has been covered below); it seems as though the trial is scheduled for September. What will the Conservatives do if an election is called before the trial is concluded?

    Select someone else, shorely?

    (Snip)
    That's what I'd expect. It'd be a bit sh*t if he was acquitted, through.
  • Options
    malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 42,062
    OllyT said:

    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
    She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.

    Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
    I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
    I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
    Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
    I actually think it is reasonable to wait to see what Johnson does on October 31st. There is always the dilemma of hanging on to be able to vote in the next leadership election , which in the Tory's case could be fairly soon. I didn't leave Labour the second Corbyn was elected I only went after the membership doubled down on that decision.

    Out of interest does anyone know if Labour still allows people to join after a leadership contest is announced?

    I would certainly vote LD right now but don't underestimate the obstacle that is FPTP. I think there is a possibility that the LDs could reach a tipping point, unfortunately I am not sure either of the leadership candidates, decent though they are, has what it takes to do that. With only 8 MPs at the time I think the party was unwise not to have opened the leadership ballot up to former MPs as well as existing ones.
    we have had enough disasters without letting the Lib Dumbs anywhere near it
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193
    edited July 2019

    tlg86 said:

    I see Mr O'Brien has had a difficult few days...

    https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1152256829235314688

    Well that's how working class folk in Newcastle like Darren sort out their arguments. Hire an expensive silk.
    Bank rolled by the BTL mob on Guido...
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    Mars Bars. If you do they may well come from veghel in the Netherlands depending on tariffs etc but at least they don’t need keeping warm, the Twitter thread from Chris Chilton explains the issues at stake in terms of Slough manufactured filled chocolate bars given the potential problems of importing materials that need to be kept warm amongst other concerns.
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    Cicero said:

    OllyT said:

    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
    She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.

    Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
    I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
    I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
    Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
    I actually think it is reasonable to wait to see what Johnson does on October 31st. There is always the dilemma of hanging on to be able to vote in the next leadership election , which in the Tory's case could be fairly soon. I didn't leave Labour the second Corbyn was elected I only went after the membership doubled down on that decision.

    Out of interest does anyone know if Labour still allows people to join after a leadership contest is announced?

    I would certainly vote LD right now but don't underestimate the obstacle that is FPTP. I think there is a possibility that the LDs could reach a tipping point, unfortunately I am not sure either of the leadership candidates, decent though they are, has what it takes to do that. With only 8 MPs at the time I think the party was unwise not to have opened the leadership ballot up to former MPs as well as existing ones.
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.
    I hope you are right, I think if you hadn't gone into the Coalition had still had around 50-60 MPs then you would be well ahead by now.

    However the last thing we need is a return to the Thatcher years with the Tories striding on due largely to a divided opposition with Labour and the Lib/SDP Alliance both polling in the 20s.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    nichomar said:

    Mars Bars. If you do they may well come from veghel in the Netherlands depending on tariffs etc but at least they don’t need keeping warm, the Twitter thread from Chris Chilton explains the issues at stake in terms of Slough manufactured filled chocolate bars given the potential problems of importing materials that need to be kept warm amongst other concerns.

    Thx yes I read that.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    Breaking news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49074879

    I really hope Tom Watson apologises. And preferably resigns in shame.
    (And the same goes for Zac Goldsmith, who was all to ready to spread the smear against Brittain.)
  • Options
    OllyTOllyT Posts: 4,913
    malcolmg said:

    OllyT said:

    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
    She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.

    Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
    I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
    I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
    Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
    I actually think it is reasonable to wait to see what Johnson does on October 31st. There is always the dilemma of hanging on to be able to vote in the next leadership election , which in the Tory's case could be fairly soon. I didn't leave Labour the second Corbyn was elected I only went after the membership doubled down on that decision.

    Out of interest does anyone know if Labour still allows people to join after a leadership contest is announced?

    I would certainly vote LD right now but don't underestimate the obstacle that is FPTP. I think there is a possibility that the LDs could reach a tipping point, unfortunately I am not sure either of the leadership candidates, decent though they are, has what it takes to do that. With only 8 MPs at the time I think the party was unwise not to have opened the leadership ballot up to former MPs as well as existing ones.
    we have had enough disasters without letting the Lib Dumbs anywhere near it
    You just hate everybody so to be honest your comments are becoming a bit pointless. If you can predict exactly what someone is going to say about any Conservative, Labour or Lib Dem politician then it becomes a waste of time reading them.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193

    Breaking news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49074879

    I really hope Tom Watson apologises. And preferably resigns in shame.
    (And the same goes for Zac Goldsmith, who was all to ready to spread the smear against Brittain.)

    Don't hold your breath.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    Breaking news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49074879

    I really hope Tom Watson apologises. And preferably resigns in shame.
    (And the same goes for Zac Goldsmith, who was all to ready to spread the smear against Brittain.)

    And spare a thought for Lord Bramall, whose wife died before his name was cleared.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    tlg86 said:

    Breaking news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49074879

    I really hope Tom Watson apologises. And preferably resigns in shame.
    (And the same goes for Zac Goldsmith, who was all to ready to spread the smear against Brittain.)

    Don't hold your breath.
    Good. I hope the sentence is a long one.

    The first people in the queue to resign should be the police who failed to investigate his claims properly in the first place. They can do that after apologising to Harvey Proctor who had his life ruined by their failures.
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    nichomar said:

    Mars Bars. If you do they may well come from veghel in the Netherlands depending on tariffs etc but at least they don’t need keeping warm, the Twitter thread from Chris Chilton explains the issues at stake in terms of Slough manufactured filled chocolate bars given the potential problems of importing materials that need to be kept warm amongst other concerns.

    An off-topic story:
    An uncle farms in South Derbyshire. One day he heard a knock on the farmhouse door, and it was a tanker driver who had driven into a nearby ditch. He offered a large sum to be pulled out of the ditch.

    It turned out to be a tanker full of melted chocolate product that had to be got to the Nestle factory in Hatton before it solidified. My uncle later got told he should have asked for much more than he got, as the cargo was rather valuable ... ;)
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    Springtime for Corbyn !
    Winter for Watson
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    RobD said:

    Breaking news:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49074879

    I really hope Tom Watson apologises. And preferably resigns in shame.
    (And the same goes for Zac Goldsmith, who was all to ready to spread the smear against Brittain.)

    And spare a thought for Lord Bramall, whose wife died before his name was cleared.
    I recall how Nick Palmer was all over the story, saying how it was wrong for someone who was suffering from cancer to be hounded in such a manner.

    Oh hang on, he didn't. That only applies to Labourites accused of wrongdoing.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    Pulpstar said:

    Springtime for Corbyn !
    Winter for Watson

    And soon we’ll be going to the polls!

    (Eh, close enough :p )
  • Options
    stodgestodge Posts: 12,877
    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
  • Options
    glwglw Posts: 9,549
    edited July 2019

    Folks, we've got a potential new Sion Simon type article out now.

    https://twitter.com/FraserNelson/status/1153277868329357313

    One for the ages.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    Having worked in the past for Mars for 18 years I have an empathy for those still employed by them. I do think that resorting to humour to deflect from a crass statement made by the next PM is difficult to understand.

    There is however something amusing about the fact that Johnson's campaign stump speech created his own made up “scare story” (to go with planes and drinking water) to debunk, that at the end of the day might not actually be a scare story at all!

    We now have a situation where ludicrously he is going to actually have to ensure the availability of Mars Bars as one of his no deal priorities, although because he couldn’t be bothered to research his “promise” before he made it.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    malcolmg said:

    OllyT said:

    IanB2 said:

    ToryJim said:

    ToryJim said:

    Scott_P said:
    She's incredibly unsuitable for high office. Lacking in charm and self-awareness. Parachuting her into high office might well be the very last straw.
    She is the worst of a rum collection who seem to think they have been promised a major job by Boris.

    Could I get more depressed about politics? Looks likely after Wednesday and these jobs being handed out.
    I have retained my membership of the Conservative party simply in order to vote against Boris. Provided Boris doesn't go too crazy I may stay albeit in an inactive capacity. However I fear that the Cabinet construction might be so irredeemably awful as to make staying untenable. Depressing doesn't even begin to cover it.
    I understand, I'm vacillating myself, but I don't want No Deal on my conscience.
    Funny how many people who were absolutely never going to have anything to do with a Bozo-led Tory party are now dredging up flaky reasons to stick it out a while longer....
    I actually think it is reasonable to wait to see what Johnson does on October 31st. There is always the dilemma of hanging on to be able to vote in the next leadership election , which in the Tory's case could be fairly soon. I didn't leave Labour the second Corbyn was elected I only went after the membership doubled down on that decision.

    Out of interest does anyone know if Labour still allows people to join after a leadership contest is announced?

    I would certainly vote LD right now but don't underestimate the obstacle that is FPTP. I think there is a possibility that the LDs could reach a tipping point, unfortunately I am not sure either of the leadership candidates, decent though they are, has what it takes to do that. With only 8 MPs at the time I think the party was unwise not to have opened the leadership ballot up to former MPs as well as existing ones.
    we have had enough disasters without letting the Lib Dumbs anywhere near it
    Another highly intellectual and thought provoking post from our resident NforN (Normal for a Nationalist) poster. 😂😂 (cue incomprehensible and inarticulate diatribe of abuse aimed at yours truly !! )
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,791
    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
    You can get the votes, IF you actively reach out and embrace those you might be 75% in agreement with, not just 90% in agreement. Obviously events and luck will play a part but the biggest obstacle is the LDs themselves wanting to keep the party as is.
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,883
    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
    3,2,1 and your back
  • Options
    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Scott_P said:
    Can i have some of what he has been drinking?
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    edited July 2019
    alex. said:



    TOPPING said:

    IanB2 said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    HYUFD said:

    FF43 said:

    Interesting thread, not just on the unexpected intricacies of the confectionery supply chain but also the dumb but apparently sincere reaction from Leavers on the forum - don't like Mars bars, they make you fat, you really are a bad business man for not planning this.

    https://twitter.com/ChrisChilton64/status/1151759606139543554

    Should help with the obesity problem then
    These are people’s livelihoods at stake here and you make a mindless joke
    I hope we haven't come to the point whereby we can't joke about things. Perhaps you can supply us with a list of OK to joke about and not OK to joke about issues.
    It would be helpful if the joke were funny.

    It would also be helpful if the joker had previously demonstrated a level of concern for the real life implications of the upcoming political decisions.

    In this case neither of these would appear to apply.
    Yeah no I get it he can be a dick but let's not start criticising people for making jokes.
    Having worked in the past for Mars for 18 years I have an empathy for those still employed by them. I do think that resorting to humour to deflect from a crass statement made by the next PM is difficult to understand.
    There is however something amusing about the fact that Johnson's campaign stump speech created his own made up “scare story” (to go with planes and drinking water) to debunk, that at the end of the day might not actually be a scare story at all!

    We now have a situation where ludicrously he is going to actually have to ensure the availability of Mars Bars as one of his no deal priorities, although because he couldn’t be bothered to research his “promise” before he made it.


    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic
  • Options
    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,731
    After we seize an Iranian vessel, basically as a favour to the US, if reports are to be believed...

    You're on your own, says Pompeo:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/22/uk-must-look-after-its-own-ships-in-the-gulf-says-pompeo
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    alex. said:

    We now have a situation where ludicrously he is going to actually have to ensure the availability of Mars Bars as one of his no deal priorities, although because he couldn’t be bothered to research his “promise” before he made it.

    There will I'm sure be a Mars Bar Watch established on 1st Nov.
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790

    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
    You can get the votes, IF you actively reach out and embrace those you might be 75% in agreement with, not just 90% in agreement. Obviously events and luck will play a part but the biggest obstacle is the LDs themselves wanting to keep the party as is.
    Some truth in what you say, but IMO the LDs simply need to present themselves as the sensible voice of moderate opinion. I will be resigning my membership of the once great Conservative Party. I am not ready to join the LDs but they will get my vote while the Tories are the party of English nationalism
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,193
    edited July 2019
    Nigelb said:

    After we seize an Iranian vessel, basically as a favour to the US, if reports are to be believed...

    You're on your own, says Pompeo:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/22/uk-must-look-after-its-own-ships-in-the-gulf-says-pompeo

    I thought we were enforcing EU sanctions, or have we seized another ship?
  • Options
    MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 25,270
    timmo said:

    Scott_P said:
    Can i have some of what he has been drinking?
    Lloyd Evans is he famous, or just someone Fraser met down the Guinea Grill this lunchtime?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
    Fear not, I’ll arrange a care package of Hershey’s chocolate bars for my favourite Remainers....

    On second thoughts, even I’m not that cruel. :D:p
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007

    Off-topic:

    An (ahem) unusual new bridge design has been proposed for London:
    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/07/10/rolling-bridge-proposed-for-east-london/

    London reconnections linked to it on Friday.

    As someone pointed out it’s a bit awkward if you approach it from the wrong side and someone hasn’t returned it to the bridge position

  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    edited July 2019
    tlg86 said:

    Nigelb said:

    After we seize an Iranian vessel, basically as a favour to the US, if reports are to be believed...

    You're on your own, says Pompeo:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/22/uk-must-look-after-its-own-ships-in-the-gulf-says-pompeo

    I thought we were enforcing EU sanctions, or have we seized another ship?
    And do we get any support from them in return?
  • Options
    Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 13,790
    Nigelb said:

    After we seize an Iranian vessel, basically as a favour to the US, if reports are to be believed...

    You're on your own, says Pompeo:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/22/uk-must-look-after-its-own-ships-in-the-gulf-says-pompeo

    Sums up the so-called special relationship sadly. This is the country that Bozo wants us to suck up to in an asymmetrical trade arrangement. How many national humiliations must we endure?
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
    Fear not, I’ll arrange a care package of Hershey’s chocolate bars for my favourite Remainers....

    On second thoughts, even I’m not that cruel. :D:p
    Can we even call that chocolate?
  • Options
    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,054
    eek said:

    Off-topic:

    An (ahem) unusual new bridge design has been proposed for London:
    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/07/10/rolling-bridge-proposed-for-east-london/

    London reconnections linked to it on Friday.

    As someone pointed out it’s a bit awkward if you approach it from the wrong side and someone hasn’t returned it to the bridge position
    That's actually the case for many small canal lift/swing bridges: as far as I can tell there's no mechanism to open or close them if you're not on the 'right' side.

    I'd expect better from a modern design, though. Perhaps two ropes? ;)
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,713
    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Also saying Alan Duncan wants to table a VoNC on his own government?
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,942
    On the vessel seized in Gib waters bound for apparently Syria, are sanctions normally enforced upon 3rd countries by ourselves ?
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sky News - Lord Falconer speaking live ....

    The nation is agog !!!!
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,791

    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
    You can get the votes, IF you actively reach out and embrace those you might be 75% in agreement with, not just 90% in agreement. Obviously events and luck will play a part but the biggest obstacle is the LDs themselves wanting to keep the party as is.
    Some truth in what you say, but IMO the LDs simply need to present themselves as the sensible voice of moderate opinion. I will be resigning my membership of the once great Conservative Party. I am not ready to join the LDs but they will get my vote while the Tories are the party of English nationalism
    They are clearly already the voice of sensible, moderate opinion, and that will get them a reasonable bounce, perhaps along the lines of the 50 MPs they have had in the recent past.

    Beyond that the two big challenges to becoming the main party of govt (there are others) are changing peoples beliefs that LDs are a wasted vote which will never be in power, and that with only 8 MPs they lack well known politicians.

    Actively working together and seeking to bring in unhappy high calibre tory and labour MPs changes both of those.
  • Options
    nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
    Fear not, I’ll arrange a care package of Hershey’s chocolate bars for my favourite Remainers....

    On second thoughts, even I’m not that cruel. :D:p
    If you can arrange some PB Max’s that would be appropriate (no really)!
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
    I think PM May send them home under the Windrush scandal .... :disappointed:
  • Options
    anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,578
    Pulpstar said:

    On the vessel seized in Gib waters bound for apparently Syria, are sanctions normally enforced upon 3rd countries by ourselves ?

    I read somewhere that the Gib vessel was not in breach of sanctions as they are EU sanctions which apply to EU ships only and not third country.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Also saying Alan Duncan wants to table a VoNC on his own government?

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1153305713772552194
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    Nigelb said:

    After we seize an Iranian vessel, basically as a favour to the US, if reports are to be believed...

    You're on your own, says Pompeo:
    https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jul/22/uk-must-look-after-its-own-ships-in-the-gulf-says-pompeo

    Sums up the so-called special relationship sadly. This is the country that Bozo wants us to suck up to in an asymmetrical trade arrangement. How many national humiliations must we endure?
    Er, but at the weekend IDS was all over the news calling for “answers” as to why the U.K. hadn’t taken up the US on their somewhat dubious offer the provide assets to protect British shipping. What, you mean it wasn’t true...?
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Presumably though he would vote to support the government in a VONC, so in itself that makes no difference in practice.
  • Options
    SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,711
    JackW said:

    Sky News - Lord Falconer speaking live ....

    The nation is agog !!!!

    Has he resigned?
  • Options
    oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,831
    Duncan has clearly got this all very wrong. He is looking petulant and petty at a time when he could have been statesmanlike.

    Let's just end this Parliament, ban all current MPs and possibly all pre-selected candidates from standing.

    A complete clean sweep. See what happens.

    I can't imagine we will end up with worse than we have now.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Presumably though he would vote to support the government in a VONC, so in itself that makes no difference in practice.
    True. But it does highlight the real difficult of keeping this ship afloat all the way until 2022. And that's if they get through until Friday!
  • Options
    eekeek Posts: 25,007
    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
    Maltesers will be interesting - they are made in a closed part of the factory to ensure the manufacturing secrets are not revealed.

    Slough was always a more interesting factory to visit compared to Kings Lynn. The Kings Lynn work was always more fun though...
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    eek said:

    Off-topic:

    An (ahem) unusual new bridge design has been proposed for London:
    https://www.ianvisits.co.uk/blog/2019/07/10/rolling-bridge-proposed-for-east-london/

    London reconnections linked to it on Friday.

    As someone pointed out it’s a bit awkward if you approach it from the wrong side and someone hasn’t returned it to the bridge position
    That's actually the case for many small canal lift/swing bridges: as far as I can tell there's no mechanism to open or close them if you're not on the 'right' side.

    I'd expect better from a modern design, though. Perhaps two ropes? ;)
    Thanks for posting a link to that blog. I spent more time reading about London’s secret tunnels than I should have. :p
  • Options
    TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,713

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Presumably though he would vote to support the government in a VONC, so in itself that makes no difference in practice.
    Yes, correct. To be fair, in a VoNC, I would expect Elphicke, Boles and possibly Lady Herman to support the government.

    Of course, on other votes.... maybe not. Which just supports the accusation of undead government. Can't get anything passed but can't be VoNCed.
  • Options
    crandlescrandles Posts: 91
    Confidence vote turned down. Hmm.

    Is Bojo/Hunt PM without a confidence vote, as soon as Queen asks them to form a govt? Or is there a long wait for confidence vote? If latter, is TMay still PM?
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    crandles said:

    Confidence vote turned down. Hmm.

    Is Bojo/Hunt PM without a confidence vote, as soon as Queen asks them to form a govt? Or is there a long wait for confidence vote? If latter, is TMay still PM?

    Opposition parties submit confidence votes, not governing party backbenchers.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Presumably though he would vote to support the government in a VONC, so in itself that makes no difference in practice.
    Yes, correct. To be fair, in a VoNC, I would expect Elphicke, Boles and possibly Lady Herman to support the government.

    Of course, on other votes.... maybe not. Which just supports the accusation of undead government. Can't get anything passed but can't be VoNCed.
    You can blame the FTPA for that one.
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Lord Falconer speaking live ....

    The nation is agog !!!!

    Has he resigned?
    Lord Falconer has it in mind to keep the possibility of any course of action fully open.
  • Options
    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,352

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Presumably though he would vote to support the government in a VONC, so in itself that makes no difference in practice.
    There's a motivational issue in some cases like this - understandably, people having to defend their reputation can't always give votes the same priority as usual. Probably doesn't arise here, but worth keeping in mind with the numerous independents floating around.
  • Options
    Torby_FennelTorby_Fennel Posts: 438

    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
    You can get the votes, IF you actively reach out and embrace those you might be 75% in agreement with, not just 90% in agreement. Obviously events and luck will play a part but the biggest obstacle is the LDs themselves wanting to keep the party as is.
    Some truth in what you say, but IMO the LDs simply need to present themselves as the sensible voice of moderate opinion. I will be resigning my membership of the once great Conservative Party. I am not ready to join the LDs but they will get my vote while the Tories are the party of English nationalism
    They are clearly already the voice of sensible, moderate opinion, and that will get them a reasonable bounce, perhaps along the lines of the 50 MPs they have had in the recent past.

    Beyond that the two big challenges to becoming the main party of govt (there are others) are changing peoples beliefs that LDs are a wasted vote which will never be in power, and that with only 8 MPs they lack well known politicians.

    Actively working together and seeking to bring in unhappy high calibre tory and labour MPs changes both of those.
    We Lib Dems have 12 MPs, not 8. Might not make much difference to your main point but it matters to us. :)
  • Options
    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,370

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Also saying Alan Duncan wants to table a VoNC on his own government?

    Almost as though it is a bad idea to treat people badly if you want them to remain loyal.
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    crandlescrandles Posts: 91
    RobD said:

    crandles said:

    Confidence vote turned down. Hmm.

    Is Bojo/Hunt PM without a confidence vote, as soon as Queen asks them to form a govt? Or is there a long wait for confidence vote? If latter, is TMay still PM?

    Opposition parties submit confidence votes, not governing party backbenchers.
    I was including things like Queens speeches as effectively confidence votes, even if strictly not a confidence vote per Fixed Term PA.

    For betting, I thought there was some precedent for waiting for such a vote to pass before saying someone is PM, but perhaps that doesn't apply in this situation?
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    rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 7,908
    Rumours that Alan Duncan has entered into a betting syndicate with Alistair Meeks unconfirmed...
  • Options
    JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    I hope all PBers have their tenters fully hooked for the upcoming announcement at around 4:00pm of a possible revision to Mike Smithson's holiday plans ....

    Oh .... and also the new LibDem Bar Chartist-in Chief will be revealed .. :cold_sweat:
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    CiceroCicero Posts: 2,238
    TOPPING said:

    RobD said:

    TOPPING said:

    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget Bounty, Snickers, Milky Way, M&Ms, Twix, Galaxy, Ripple Maltesers and Topic

    I hope dark kit-kats remain inviolate.
    Fear not, I’ll arrange a care package of Hershey’s chocolate bars for my favourite Remainers....

    On second thoughts, even I’m not that cruel. :D:p
    Can we even call that chocolate?
    Once you have tried Fazer chocolate from Finland, you realize that most mass produced stuff in the UK is nearly as filthy as the American gunge...
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,277
    crandles said:

    Confidence vote turned down. Hmm.

    Is Bojo/Hunt PM without a confidence vote, as soon as Queen asks them to form a govt? Or is there a long wait for confidence vote? If latter, is TMay still PM?

    Yes, as soon as Queen invites them. She takes the advice of the resigning PM as to who can command the confidence of commons. No need for a demonstration. Normally it is obvious. In this case...
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,985
    crandles said:

    RobD said:

    crandles said:

    Confidence vote turned down. Hmm.

    Is Bojo/Hunt PM without a confidence vote, as soon as Queen asks them to form a govt? Or is there a long wait for confidence vote? If latter, is TMay still PM?

    Opposition parties submit confidence votes, not governing party backbenchers.
    I was including things like Queens speeches as effectively confidence votes, even if strictly not a confidence vote per Fixed Term PA.

    For betting, I thought there was some precedent for waiting for such a vote to pass before saying someone is PM, but perhaps that doesn't apply in this situation?
    Isn’t a separate confidence motion required even if a Queen’s speech is voted down?
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    rkrkrk said:

    Rumours that Alan Duncan has entered into a betting syndicate with Alistair Meeks unconfirmed...
    As Avon in Blake's Seven would say, if any other Conservative MPs are ready to pull the rug from under a hypothetical Boris Johnson government, now would be a good time.
  • Options
    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,220
    TOPPING said:

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Also saying Alan Duncan wants to table a VoNC on his own government?

    Almost as though it is a bad idea to treat people badly if you want them to remain loyal.
    The idea that Boris can unite the country when so many of his own MPs clearly loathe him is an interesting one.
  • Options
    RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679

    Duncan has clearly got this all very wrong. He is looking petulant and petty at a time when he could have been statesmanlike.

    Let's just end this Parliament, ban all current MPs and possibly all pre-selected candidates from standing.

    A complete clean sweep. See what happens.

    I can't imagine we will end up with worse than we have now.

    I think he knows very well what he is doing and has achieved his objective. Dulux Dog starts his tenure with a VONC which is spiked by the speaker. The PR damage is done.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,031

    BBC saying Elphicke has had whip removed. So therefore we ARE down to 311 Con MPs.

    Presumably though he would vote to support the government in a VONC, so in itself that makes no difference in practice.
    Yes, correct. To be fair, in a VoNC, I would expect Elphicke, Boles and possibly Lady Herman to support the government.

    Of course, on other votes.... maybe not. Which just supports the accusation of undead government. Can't get anything passed but can't be VoNCed.
    And, of course, Kate Hoey.
  • Options
    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059

    JackW said:

    Sky News - Lord Falconer speaking live ....

    The nation is agog !!!!

    Has he resigned?
    As i anticipated this morning....
  • Options
    noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 20,791

    stodge said:

    Cicero said:

    <
    The party is comfortable with either Jo or Ed and is united, which is more than can be said for any other party.

    I think the Lib Dems are on course for a spectacular return... and I don;t think I'm alone here in thinking that.

    I certainly believe it's possible - the journey from 20% to 35% might not be a difficult one if the options are Corbyn, Johnson and Farage but we need to convince our voters (both actual and prospective) and perhaps ourselves it's possible. The recent Com Res survey showed too few of our voters believed we could win - a strong B&R result will help but we can break the spell of the duopoly only if we can convince those whose loyalty to the Conservatives is out of a justifiable fear of Corbyn that an LD vote doesn't lead to Corbyn.

    We can say bye to Boris, ciao to Corbyn and farewell to Farage in one night if we can get the votes.
    You can get the votes, IF you actively reach out and embrace those you might be 75% in agreement with, not just 90% in agreement. Obviously events and luck will play a part but the biggest obstacle is the LDs themselves wanting to keep the party as is.
    Some truth in what you say, but IMO the LDs simply need to present themselves as the sensible voice of moderate opinion. I will be resigning my membership of the once great Conservative Party. I am not ready to join the LDs but they will get my vote while the Tories are the party of English nationalism
    They are clearly already the voice of sensible, moderate opinion, and that will get them a reasonable bounce, perhaps along the lines of the 50 MPs they have had in the recent past.

    Beyond that the two big challenges to becoming the main party of govt (there are others) are changing peoples beliefs that LDs are a wasted vote which will never be in power, and that with only 8 MPs they lack well known politicians.

    Actively working together and seeking to bring in unhappy high calibre tory and labour MPs changes both of those.
    We Lib Dems have 12 MPs, not 8. Might not make much difference to your main point but it matters to us. :)
    Apologies!
This discussion has been closed.