politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and
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AV: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20257548Pulpstar said:
Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?ydoethur said:
Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.Gallowgate said:
First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.Gallowgate said:
Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...0 -
Gives the Independent a slightly better chance than SV I think, but would still expect Labour to win as we don't have the same attention (Or law !) to listing out all our prefs in this country like they do in Oz I think.ydoethur said:
AV: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20257548Pulpstar said:
Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?ydoethur said:
Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.Gallowgate said:
First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.Gallowgate said:
Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...
EDIT - The system is SV you've linked to there @ydoethur so should be Labour as there'll be plenty of Con-LD and LD-Con ballots I expect...0 -
BritBox: ITV and BBC set out plans for new streaming service
She added: "It is bad news for TV fans in that we're going to have to pay for loads of individual subscriptions. Now, most people have their TV, maybe they have Sky and Netflix - whereas if you have to pay for Netflix, Amazon, Disney, BritBox… it's going to get quite expensive."
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-49037855
The media companies just aren't learning from what happened with music! Make it a pain in the arse, make it expensive, people just stream it on the internet for nought.0 -
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
The Backstop has always meant what it says. It's there in the absence of an alternative that makes it redundant. The problem is that the ruling Conservative Party, including people like Rory Stewart, have rejected the alternative that makes the backstop redundant. If they change their minds we're in business.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...0 -
Very significant Boundary changes post-1979 which had the effect of reducing Labour's vote here.stodge said:Morning all
Disappointing to read the nonsense that Brecon & Radnor has been a Conservative seat for ever.
No it hasn't.
Labour won the seat in the 1939 by election and held it until 1979 when the Conservatives won it for the first time since gaining it from Labour in 1931.
In 1979 the Conservatives took the seat and held it until Richard Livsey won the 1985 by-election beating Labour by 559 votes with the Conservatives back in third. Livsey held by 56 in 1987 and lost to the Conservatives in 1992 by 130.
In 1997 the anti-Conservative tide saw Livsey back by 5000 but that was the largest LD majority as Livsey's successor, Roger Williams, scraped home by 751 in 2001 and built up a majority of just under 4000 in 2010.
The 2015 anti-Lib Dem tide saw Chris Davies win by 5000 and he stretched that to 8000 in 2017. The majority is comparable to the one overturned by Livsey in 1985.
The Conservatives have always enjoyed a strong presence in B&R - the main change was the move of the anti-Conservative vote from Labour to Lib Dem after 1997 (with some return since 2015).0 -
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
There I was, thinking that when it came to puns, you were pasture best!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lamb-asting, I see.Nigel_Foremain said:
not sure I can tup that oneydoethur said:
Fine, alpacat in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You are pulling the wool over our eyes!ydoethur said:
Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.JackW said:
Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that ..ydoethur said:
Wales isn't in Mongolia.Zephyr said:
There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...ydoethur said:
Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.Zephyr said:
No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?ydoethur said:
There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.Zephyr said:On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.
But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?
What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”
Surely real Vandalism is brexit?
In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).
The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.0 -
What alternative makes the backstop redundant?FF43 said:
The Backstop has always meant what it says. It's there in the absence of an alternative that makes it redundant. The problem is that the ruling Conservative Party, including people like Rory Stewart, have rejected the alternative that makes the backstop redundant. If they change their minds we're in business.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...0 -
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
I'll take your word for it. It matches AV as I understand it.Pulpstar said:
Gives the Independent a slightly better chance than SV I think, but would still expect Labour to win as we don't have the same attention (Or law !) to listing out all our prefs in this country like they do in Oz I think.ydoethur said:
AV: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20257548Pulpstar said:
Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?ydoethur said:
Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.Gallowgate said:
First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.Gallowgate said:
Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...
EDIT - The system is SV you've linked to there @ydoethur so should be Labour as there'll be plenty of Con-LD and LD-Con ballots I expect...
If only there was somebody on these boards who could do a thread header explaining it all...0 -
I think it has become mediocre in the last decade. I mean, excuse my French, but where is the fucking leadership? Boris Johnson and Jeremy Corbyn will say anything to appeal to their increasingly braindead members. It isn't leadership, it is followership masquerading as leadership.Sean_F said:
Our political class is very mediocre. But, very mediocre is still better than most.Nigel_Foremain said:
I am coming round to the idea, and accept that, like Italians, we now have to accept our political class is a global laughing stock. I have always been a moderate Conservative because I believe Conservative's normally create the best conditions for business. Well they have fucked that USP up good and proper now! However I think business is now adjusting to the new certainty that everything is uncertain. Britain is certainly in decline now, and that is sad, but we will all just have to get on with it. I will never vote Conservative while they have that idiot in charge, so the LDs can have my vote for a while.rottenborough said:
I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.Nigel_Foremain said:
Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PMrottenborough said:
Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.Nigel_Foremain said:
Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long macrottenborough said:
At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.Nigel_Foremain said:
Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!AlastairMeeks said:The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.
There are very very few places where the political class is actually impressive - perhaps Singapore, Taiwan, and the Baltic states.0 -
If I were you, I'd hedge.Nigel_Foremain said:
There I was, thinking that when it came to puns, you were pasture best!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lamb-asting, I see.Nigel_Foremain said:
not sure I can tup that oneydoethur said:
Fine, alpacat in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You are pulling the wool over our eyes!ydoethur said:
Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.JackW said:
Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that ..ydoethur said:
Wales isn't in Mongolia.Zephyr said:
There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...ydoethur said:
Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.Zephyr said:
No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?ydoethur said:
There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.Zephyr said:On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.
But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?
What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”
Surely real Vandalism is brexit?
In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).
The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.0 -
Good job they didn't organize another Jezfest !!!Scott_P said:twitter.com/YouGov/status/1152176073758715904
twitter.com/YouGov/status/11521760806709084170 -
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
It's just another hurdle to overcomeydoethur said:
If I were you, I'd hedge.Nigel_Foremain said:
There I was, thinking that when it came to puns, you were pasture best!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Lamb-asting, I see.Nigel_Foremain said:
not sure I can tup that oneydoethur said:
Fine, alpacat in.Sunil_Prasannan said:
You are pulling the wool over our eyes!ydoethur said:
Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.JackW said:
Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that ..ydoethur said:
Wales isn't in Mongolia.Zephyr said:
There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...ydoethur said:
Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.Zephyr said:
No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?ydoethur said:
There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.Zephyr said:On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.
But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?
What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”
Surely real Vandalism is brexit?
In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).
The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.0 -
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.0 -
No - it was won in 2001 when Tony Benn stood down.nichomar said:
Won in a by election I thinkrottenborough said:
Didn't Chesterfield use to be LibDem in the Blair years?Pulpstar said:
Are there any marginals in the southern area of the east midlands though ?El_Capitano said:From the Politico article linked in the last thread, I note that it defines the East Midlands as "the marginals of Mansfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Ashfield, North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield".
As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)
Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)0 -
What would be the equivalent security issues to those that are bedevilling the NI border clusterfuck?JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
I live on the sharp edge of this because I've been involved in development of rugby players for years.FrancisUrquhart said:After the discussion claims the other day over people switching from drink to drugs due to minimum pricing....
£2.5bn investor: 'Americans have stopped drinking beer and have switched to cannabis'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/25bn-investor-americans-have-stopped-drinking-beer-have-switched/
Anybody who has been forced to drink "domestic" american beer for years, it isn't a hard sell to get them to switch!
I'm 41 and when I was in youth rugby the culture was hard drinking. Hardly anyone took drugs. Booze was cheap (£1.40 a pint), drugs were expensive and not easy to access.
Now, hardly any youngsters drink excessively (£3.20 a pint) but nearly all of them take drugs (ecstasy: £5 per pill; cocaine: everywhere).
It is much harder for a 17 year old to get served in bars than it is to get drugs delivered to you.
One of the ironies is that youngsters nowadays - certainly the ones I see - are fitter, more body-conscious (muscular) and much more sensible/scientific in terms of diet and training than they've ever been.
The culture has completely changed, politicians, as ever, are way behind the curve.0 -
SV takes 2nd prefs only, AV you can have as many prefs as candidates.ydoethur said:
I'll take your word for it. It matches AV as I understand it.Pulpstar said:
Gives the Independent a slightly better chance than SV I think, but would still expect Labour to win as we don't have the same attention (Or law !) to listing out all our prefs in this country like they do in Oz I think.ydoethur said:
AV: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-20257548Pulpstar said:
Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?ydoethur said:
Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.Gallowgate said:
First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.Gallowgate said:
Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...
EDIT - The system is SV you've linked to there @ydoethur so should be Labour as there'll be plenty of Con-LD and LD-Con ballots I expect...
If only there was somebody on these boards who could do a thread header explaining it all...0 -
OT Paddy Power Huddersfield kit was a publicity stunt.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/huddersfield-kitastrophe-revealed-as-paddy-power-publicity-stunt/3910020 -
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
Surely not....A PR stunt from the most publicity shy company in the world.DecrepitJohnL said:OT Paddy Power Huddersfield kit was a publicity stunt.
https://www.racingpost.com/news/latest/huddersfield-kitastrophe-revealed-as-paddy-power-publicity-stunt/3910020 -
I have been involved in youth rugby too (though a decade older) and sadly have to concur.Fenster said:
I live on the sharp edge of this because I've been involved in development of rugby players for years.FrancisUrquhart said:After the discussion claims the other day over people switching from drink to drugs due to minimum pricing....
£2.5bn investor: 'Americans have stopped drinking beer and have switched to cannabis'
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/25bn-investor-americans-have-stopped-drinking-beer-have-switched/
Anybody who has been forced to drink "domestic" american beer for years, it isn't a hard sell to get them to switch!
I'm 41 and when I was in youth rugby the culture was hard drinking. Hardly anyone took drugs. Booze was cheap (£1.40 a pint), drugs were expensive and not easy to access.
Now, hardly any youngsters drink excessively (£3.20 a pint) but nearly all of them take drugs (ecstasy: £5 per pill; cocaine: everywhere).
It is much harder for a 17 year old to get served in bars than it is to get drugs delivered to you.
One of the ironies is that youngsters nowadays - certainly the ones I see - are fitter, more body-conscious (muscular) and much more sensible/scientific in terms of diet and training than they've ever been.
The culture has completely changed, politicians, as ever, are way behind the curve.0 -
***** Betting Post *****
Tommy Fleetwood, currently joint leader in The Open Championship, looks cracking value to back at 100/1 with Laddies/Corals to win SPOTY '19. The E.W. option is also available for thim to finish top 3 at one-fifth of these odds, i.e. 20/1.0 -
Security issues?? Get with the programme it's milk and honey on that island since the GFA - it's all about trade.Theuniondivvie said:
What would be the equivalent security issues to those that are bedevilling the NI border clusterfuck?JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
I presume iScot will want to trade with England/rUK ?0 -
-
You've got that backwards. A hypothetical England and Wales outside the EU makes it nearly impossible for Scotland to remain in it.williamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
Scotland would in any case have to wait five years for EU membership even if it became independent.0 -
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail0 -
Trump has managed to turn a person with some really extreme and antisemitic views into a hero...genius...shakes head.rottenborough said:twitter.com/RBReich/status/1151986268428881920
0 -
Oh I read what you said.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
Soft - Seperatist
Hard - Remainer0 -
It is not a security risk but it would be an economic armageddon for ScotlandTheuniondivvie said:
What would be the equivalent security issues to those that are bedevilling the NI border clusterfuck?JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
When do you think England will be outside the single market and customs union? There's no sign of it ever happening that I can see.ydoethur said:
You've got that backwards. A hypothetical England and Wales outside the EU makes it nearly impossible for Scotland to remain in it.williamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
Scotland would in any case have to wait five years for EU membership even if it became independent.0 -
Most of the Customs Union and some of the Single Market applying to the whole EU/UK border, rather than just Northern Ireland.eek said:
What alternative makes the backstop redundant?FF43 said:
The Backstop has always meant what it says. It's there in the absence of an alternative that makes it redundant. The problem is that the ruling Conservative Party, including people like Rory Stewart, have rejected the alternative that makes the backstop redundant. If they change their minds we're in business.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...0 -
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail0 -
I have no interest in England's interest but I have in Scotland's and a customs border between Scotland and England is unthinkablewilliamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.0 -
Yeah, remember before Trump when the GOP used all the correct dog-whistles and therefore there wasn't any racism and everything was great?rottenborough said:0 -
And a customs border between England and France is unthinkable. No less an authority than Chris Grayling said it was "utterly unrealistic". Therefore the question of a border between England and Scotland does not arise.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no interest in England's interest but I have in Scotland's and a customs border between Scotland and England is unthinkablewilliamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-43425055/chris-grayling-no-post-brexit-lorry-checks-at-dover0 -
It was an example of where a spirited LibDem by-election campaign created the organisation and momentum that didn’t win but subsequently carried through to winning the seatjustin124 said:
No - it was won in 2001 when Tony Benn stood down.nichomar said:
Won in a by election I thinkrottenborough said:
Didn't Chesterfield use to be LibDem in the Blair years?Pulpstar said:
Are there any marginals in the southern area of the east midlands though ?El_Capitano said:From the Politico article linked in the last thread, I note that it defines the East Midlands as "the marginals of Mansfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Ashfield, North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield".
As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)
Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)0 -
My girlfriend and I’s 2nd preference was the Indy with Lib Dem 1st.Pulpstar said:
Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?ydoethur said:
Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.Gallowgate said:
First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.Gallowgate said:
Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...0 -
Nothumbria PCC first preferences by council authority
Newcastle: Lab 43.7% LD 21.3% Ind 19% Con 16%
Gateshead: Lab 40.6% LD 27% Ind 17.9% Con 14.5%
North Tyneside: Lab 41.6% Con 25.5% Ind 18.5% LD 14.5%
Northumberland: Con 31.7% Lab 26.8% Ind 24% LD 17.5%
South Tyneside: Lab 41.6% Ind 28.5% Con 17% LD 12.8%
Sunderland: Lab 37.4% Ind 24.8% Con 21.1% LD 16.8%
Lab and Ind go to second round0 -
Scott_P said:
Less than half of TORY VOTERS want Boris both managing Brexit and running the country afterwards??0 -
Chris Davies to be fair to him won the biggest Tory voteshare in Brecon since the 1960s and has local roots and links with the farming community as a vet and auctioneer. Do not count him out.
While on current polls the LDs would win the seat if Boris gets the bounce Comres are predicting then it would be tied 39% Tory and 39% LD0 -
You have no idea where this goes but I can tell you there will not be a Scottish border as Scotland will not vote for independencewilliamglenn said:
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail0 -
Indeed - though the by election was in 1984. I believe it was also one of the few Labour gains in 2010!IanB2 said:
It was an example of where a spirited LibDem by-election campaign created the organisation and momentum that didn’t win but subsequently carried through to winning the seatjustin124 said:
No - it was won in 2001 when Tony Benn stood down.nichomar said:
Won in a by election I thinkrottenborough said:
Didn't Chesterfield use to be LibDem in the Blair years?Pulpstar said:
Are there any marginals in the southern area of the east midlands though ?El_Capitano said:From the Politico article linked in the last thread, I note that it defines the East Midlands as "the marginals of Mansfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Ashfield, North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield".
As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)
Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)0 -
A customs border between England and Scotland would be a lot easier to set up than one between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It's a lot shorter border, far fewer roads cross it and border habits are much more clearly regulated.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no interest in England's interest but I have in Scotland's and a customs border between Scotland and England is unthinkablewilliamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
Uniform swing again...HYUFD said:Chris Davies to be fair to him won the biggest Tory voteshare in Brecon since the 1960s and has local roots and links with the farming community as a vet and auctioneer. Do not count him out.
While on current polls the LDs would win the seat if Boris gets the bounce Comres are predicting then it would be tied 39% Tory and 39% LD0 -
He is not, of course, a convicted fraudster. As the judge who sentenced him said, he did not benefit financially in any way from his actions. As the law stands that means it was stupid but it was not fraud.Harris_Tweed said:Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.0 -
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.0 -
It is not going to happenAlastairMeeks said:
A customs border between England and Scotland would be a lot easier to set up than one between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It's a lot shorter border, far fewer roads cross it and border habits are much more clearly regulated.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no interest in England's interest but I have in Scotland's and a customs border between Scotland and England is unthinkablewilliamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
Argh. Why are the circles all on different scales?Scott_P said:0 -
williamglenn said:
As long as Boris remains PM we will leave the single market and Customs Unionydoethur said:
When do you think England will be outside the single market and customs union? There's no sign of it ever happening that I can see.williamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even five years for EU membership even if it became independent.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
Hold on, I still haven't done the railway from Ayr to Stanraer or everything north of the Central Belt!AlastairMeeks said:
A customs border between England and Scotland would be a lot easier to set up than one between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It's a lot shorter border, far fewer roads cross it and border habits are much more clearly regulated.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no interest in England's interest but I have in Scotland's and a customs border between Scotland and England is unthinkablewilliamglenn said:
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.Big_G_NorthWales said:
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguidedwilliamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW0 -
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC through the actions of Tory MPs if there is a non-nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.HYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC0 -
Boris is favoured PM of 2017 Tories and Leave voters, Corbyn is not favoured PM of 2017 Labour voters and Remain votersScott_P said:0 -
I'd imagine that the family of Lyra McKee may disagree with you, but I daresay you're of the 'Jo Cox, move on, nothing to see here' mindset.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Security issues?? Get with the programme it's milk and honey on that island since the GFA - it's all about trade.Theuniondivvie said:
What would be the equivalent security issues to those that are bedevilling the NI border clusterfuck?JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.JBriskinindyref2 said:
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.williamglenn said:
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
I presume iScot will want to trade with England/rUK ?
It does seem to occupy the thoughts of those of a less blithe outlook though.
Fears of return to Troubles
About 16,600,000 results (0.40 seconds)0 -
OK, how about just "convict"?prh47bridge said:
He is not, of course, a convicted fraudster. As the judge who sentenced him said, he did not benefit financially in any way from his actions. As the law stands that means it was stupid but it was not fraud.Harris_Tweed said:Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.0 -
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and even if that was overcome the Lib Dems would slaughter the partyHYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.0 -
A general election being held as small No Deal issues occur day after day really wouldn't be the best plan.. The cascade of disasters would peak in early December just as the polls opened...HYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.
or Boris could avoid the small No Deal disasters by extending - and Farage will be in full on attack mode...0 -
When? Isn't the latest brainwave of the Boris camp to have an indefinite transition?HYUFD said:
As long as Boris remains PM we will leave the single market and Customs Unionwilliamglenn said:When do you think England will be outside the single market and customs union? There's no sign of it ever happening that I can see.
0 -
I don't really understand the logic of people saying there'll be a GE shortly after October 31st. If Johnson's going to call an election, surely he'd rather do that before November, since any Brexit outcome either doesn't require an election (manages to get a deal through, no deal) or hurts the Tories electorally (extension)HYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.0 -
No, if a technical solution is found to the Irish border NI will stay and in any case the DUP are still largest party not Sinn Fein.eek said:
Yes - if we leave with No Deal - Northern Ireland will join the republic and the SNP will win their fight for independence...JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
In Scotland while 51% of Remainers now back independence according to Curtice that is not enough for a Yes vote still given 64% of Scottish Leavers still back No and the Union0 -
He can, by organizing a vote in favour by 2/3 of HoC. Can't see how on earth Labour would survive not voting for an early GE and then there is the payroll vote for the government, plus a Boris 3 line whip.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and the way things are going the Lib Dems will slaughter the partyHYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.0 -
Is that on the basis of Westminster and your party, the Tories, continually blocking a referendum, or Scots voting against it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You have no idea where this goes but I can tell you there will not be a Scottish border as Scotland will not vote for independencewilliamglenn said:
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail0 -
Scots voting against itTheuniondivvie said:
Is that on the basis of Westminster and your party, the Tories, continually blocking a referendum, or Scots voting against it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You have no idea where this goes but I can tell you there will not be a Scottish border as Scotland will not vote for independencewilliamglenn said:
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail0 -
-
Uniondivvie-
It's you that wants an iScot and the subsequent security issues that would inevitable arise from it.
I don't think me and you will ever be on the same page.0 -
Chris Davies's share is close to that won by Tom Hooson in the 1983 GE. Two years later, the Conservative share fell 20% and while the LDs moved up to win the seat, Labour came second and were only 559 votes behind.HYUFD said:Chris Davies to be fair to him won the biggest Tory voteshare in Brecon since the 1960s and has local roots and links with the farming community as a vet and auctioneer. Do not count him out.
While on current polls the LDs would win the seat if Boris gets the bounce Comres are predicting then it would be tied 39% Tory and 39% LD
Yes, the circumstances now are different but only inasmuch as the Conservative vote could go to TBP.0 -
Read Alastair's excellent article of a couple of days ago. Yes Labour would support a GE, but they'd impose conditions, the most important of which would be the very reasonable one of Boris getting an Article 50 extension first.rottenborough said:He can, by organizing a vote in favour by 2/3 of HoC. Can't see how on earth Labour would survive not voting for an early GE and then there is the payroll vote for the government, plus a Boris 3 line whip.
0 -
That's simple - Labour state that there isn't enough time to sort things out after the election but would be happy for one to occur provided things are extend until the end of the year.rottenborough said:
He can, by organizing a vote in favour by 2/3 of HoC. Can't see how on earth Labour would survive not voting for an early GE and then there is the payroll vote for the government, plus a Boris 3 line whip.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and the way things are going the Lib Dems will slaughter the partyHYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.
Then you just play Boris's "we will leave on October 31st speech" on a loop until Farage kicks off..0 -
Replace the word technical with magical and you will understand the issue.HYUFD said:
No, if a technical solution is found to the Irish border NI will stay and in any case the DUP are still largest party not Sinn Fein.eek said:
Yes - if we leave with No Deal - Northern Ireland will join the republic and the SNP will win their fight for independence...JBriskinindyref2 said:
or negotiated out of existence.williamglenn said:
In the sense of superseded.JBriskinindyref2 said:
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"eek said:Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters
“But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”
Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”
So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
In Scotland while 51% of Remainers now back independence according to Curtice that is not enough for a Yes vote still given 64% of Scottish Leavers still back No and the Union
The technology doesn't exist and even if it did it won't be installed and ready to go on October 31st..0 -
The electoral dynamics changed there when Richard Livesey won the seat in 1985. He very narrowly held on in 1987 before losing to the Tories by 130 in 1992. Such results made it much easier to squeeze Labour's vote on a tactical basis - until the Coalition was formed.stodge said:
The big fall in the Labour share has been since 1997 when the party still got more than a quarter of the vote.justin124 said:
Very significant Boundary changes post-1979 which had the effect of reducing Labour's vote here.0 -
Interesting leader in the Mirror suggesting that £1.6bn has been claimed by people who were eligible for Pension Credit but did not claim it. That must surely be a good thing, even if it costs the Exchequer. People should take the help available.
However not sure of the maths because they say that is the result of just 1,700 claims (I assume they are extrapolating)0 -
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.Richard_Nabavi said:
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.HYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!0 -
-
What security issues would they be?JBriskinindyref2 said:Uniondivvie-
It's you that wants an iScot and the subsequent security issues that would inevitable arise from it.
I don't think me and you will ever be on the same page.0 -
Only if he attempted to call an election which wouldn't be resolved until after October 31st, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
Read Alastair's excellent article of a couple of days ago. Yes Labour would support a GE, but they'd impose conditions, the most important of which would be the very reasonable one of Boris getting an Article 50 extension first.rottenborough said:He can, by organizing a vote in favour by 2/3 of HoC. Can't see how on earth Labour would survive not voting for an early GE and then there is the payroll vote for the government, plus a Boris 3 line whip.
0 -
Well there will be a border. Given the outflows likely in the case of an iScot it won't be long till it's along the lines of NI/I or Trump/Mexicowilliamglenn said:
What security issues would they be?JBriskinindyref2 said:Uniondivvie-
It's you that wants an iScot and the subsequent security issues that would inevitable arise from it.
I don't think me and you will ever be on the same page.0 -
Cool.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scots voting against itTheuniondivvie said:
Is that on the basis of Westminster and your party, the Tories, continually blocking a referendum, or Scots voting against it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You have no idea where this goes but I can tell you there will not be a Scottish border as Scotland will not vote for independencewilliamglenn said:
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail
I hope, if you don't end your association with them, that you lobby your party to end it's obstructive policy of believing that they are the best people to decide on whether Scots should have a referendum.0 -
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?JohnO said:
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.Richard_Nabavi said:
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.HYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!0 -
Not even the same book, sport.JBriskinindyref2 said:Uniondivvie-
It's you that wants an iScot and the subsequent security issues that would inevitable arise from it.
I don't think me and you will ever be on the same page.0 -
-
Yes, but I don't think he's mad enough to try to go to the country immediately, and then the clock runs out.Stereotomy said:
Only if he attempted to call an election which wouldn't be resolved until after October 31st, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
Read Alastair's excellent article of a couple of days ago. Yes Labour would support a GE, but they'd impose conditions, the most important of which would be the very reasonable one of Boris getting an Article 50 extension first.rottenborough said:He can, by organizing a vote in favour by 2/3 of HoC. Can't see how on earth Labour would survive not voting for an early GE and then there is the payroll vote for the government, plus a Boris 3 line whip.
0 -
Obviously Nicola should decide. We could have one every year on Burns day for example.Theuniondivvie said:
Cool.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Scots voting against itTheuniondivvie said:
Is that on the basis of Westminster and your party, the Tories, continually blocking a referendum, or Scots voting against it?Big_G_NorthWales said:
You have no idea where this goes but I can tell you there will not be a Scottish border as Scotland will not vote for independencewilliamglenn said:
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.williamglenn said:
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.JBriskinindyref2 said:
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).williamglenn said:Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail
I hope, if you don't end your association with them, that you lobby your party to end it's obstructive policy of believing that they are the best people to decide on whether Scots should have a referendum.
Would be nice to know when you seperatists will give up though.0 -
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Several hours late to 'the EU has blinked (part 417)' party klaxon.HYUFD said:0 -
Ben Stokes to be nominated as New Zealander of the year
https://www.itv.com/news/2019-07-19/ben-stokes-new-zealander-of-the-year/0 -
It went from the Sky ticker fairly quickly and there was only me fighting the pro-democracy battle.Theuniondivvie said:
Several hours late to 'the EU has blinked (part 417)' party klaxon.HYUFD said:0 -
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaignRichard_Nabavi said:
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?JohnO said:
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.Richard_Nabavi said:
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.HYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!0 -
England voted for sovereignty, and it will get sovereignty.JBriskinindyref2 said:Would be nice to know when you seperatists will give up though.
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So... nothing has changed?HYUFD said:0 -
Is that mad? I'd have thought the best time to try would be before his plans have collided with reality.Richard_Nabavi said:
Yes, but I don't think he's mad enough to try to go to the country immediately, and then the clock runs out.Stereotomy said:
Only if he attempted to call an election which wouldn't be resolved until after October 31st, surely?Richard_Nabavi said:
Read Alastair's excellent article of a couple of days ago. Yes Labour would support a GE, but they'd impose conditions, the most important of which would be the very reasonable one of Boris getting an Article 50 extension first.rottenborough said:He can, by organizing a vote in favour by 2/3 of HoC. Can't see how on earth Labour would survive not voting for an early GE and then there is the payroll vote for the government, plus a Boris 3 line whip.
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The LDs would slaughter Corbyn Labour less so the Tories, the Brexit Party would slaughter the Tories though if they extend againBig_G_NorthWales said:
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and even if that was overcome the Lib Dems would slaughter the partyHYUFD said:
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONCRichard_Nabavi said:Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.0 -
And Scotland can be ruled by Brussels again eh?williamglenn said:
England voted for sovereignty, and it will get sovereignty.JBriskinindyref2 said:Would be nice to know when you seperatists will give up though.
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