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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and the Tories accuse their opponents of vandalism
Tories complaining in Brecon & Radnor by-election that their posters are getting vandalised https://t.co/oDswR6rgOH pic.twitter.com/hztA92wyTK
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But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.
We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.
And I don't blame them as there was little the party could do - they could hardly replace Chris Davies as candidate so it's best to let him lose, have excuses planned and prep a different candidate ready for the next election.
I still think they have a much better chance than most people realise, but after last night I'm a good deal less certain than I was.
Unfortunately vandalism of posters is currently a favoured modus operandi of Labour in particular. At least this one doesn't call for the murder of the candidate as one in Gloucester did.
I sometimes think it's because they have nothing else to do due to the weakness of their policy offering. But it may just be because a very large number of Corbyn's supporters are vile human beings.
Tellers - what percentage, approximately, of votes would you expect to be posted by early next week?
It doesn't seem good sense to draw attention to a sign saying your candidate is a crook when he has a recent conviction!
Disappointing to read the nonsense that Brecon & Radnor has been a Conservative seat for ever.
No it hasn't.
Labour won the seat in the 1939 by election and held it until 1979 when the Conservatives won it for the first time since gaining it from Labour in 1931.
In 1979 the Conservatives took the seat and held it until Richard Livsey won the 1985 by-election beating Labour by 559 votes with the Conservatives back in third. Livsey held by 56 in 1987 and lost to the Conservatives in 1992 by 130.
In 1997 the anti-Conservative tide saw Livsey back by 5000 but that was the largest LD majority as Livsey's successor, Roger Williams, scraped home by 751 in 2001 and built up a majority of just under 4000 in 2010.
The 2015 anti-Lib Dem tide saw Chris Davies win by 5000 and he stretched that to 8000 in 2017. The majority is comparable to the one overturned by Livsey in 1985.
The Conservatives have always enjoyed a strong presence in B&R - the main change was the move of the anti-Conservative vote from Labour to Lib Dem after 1997 (with some return since 2015).
Newcastle: 19.0%
North Tyneside: 14.6%
Sunderland: 14.5%
Gateshead: 14.5%
South Tyneside: 13.2%
Northumberland: 13.7%
His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.
Brexit. All our politics today is through prism of brexit. If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?
he’s the biggest thing to celebrity politician we have had for very long time, meaning he’s hardly a fresh face or unknown quantity. If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, but probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, not so I argue with Boris, just reading this site alone he has already been quantified, weigh measured and for many found wanting, so once in job will instantly start meeting their expectations.
On the other hand, if there is no bounce at all it is not end of the world. Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen. Blair got a baby Leo bounce, to show what pathetic fluff bounces are.
I really don't see why convicted criminals who have served the punishment shouldn't be eligible to be MPs. It is the choice of the electorate to either vote for them or not.
After that, the Liberals disappeared and the National Government held the seat in 1931 and 1935 but in 1939 the MP was kicked up to the Lords and Labour won the by-election which was held on August 1st 1939.
It was the last peacetime by-election.
For ordinary voters who did not follow the cases in detail, a speeding ticket is almost certainly trumped by fraud and forgery.
As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)
If being convicted of fraud wasn't enough for the whip to be withdrawn it isn't enough for him to be refused the candidacy..
I much prefer allowing the voters to decide then having people being automatically disbarred. You can see how the latter can be abused by the way the Opposition leader in Russia was treated.
Still, at least his attempts to make public discourse healthier and more civil seem to be having an effect.
https://twitter.com/jack/status/1120825823647420416?s=20
One rule for the rich ruling classes and another rule for struggling working class plebs.
Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)
Stan Greenberg said he was a Labour supporter “in my bones”, but accused Jeremy Corbyn of “dithering” over Brexit.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/blair-and-clinton-strategist-stan-greenberg-switches-to-help-lib-dems-get-elected-gg2qv3jtc
I remember one story from probably a couple of decades ago about someone who was so keen to remove a securely fixed Lib Dem poster board, that they ended up demolishing the garden wall to do it!
1. Keep the whip - are we embarrassed by your support?
2. Selected for the seat - are you the best candidate?
Looking at the votes I expect the Brexit Party to split the vote on the right and expect something like.
Lib Dem’s 13500
Brexit 8000
Tories 4000
Labour 1000
Plaid 1000
UKIP 250
I don’t know the seat well and don’t really understand the appeal of the Brexit Party so could be getting that wrong. The LIbdems are prime position to bring together opposition parties and are strong in local government in the area.
But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?
What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”
Surely real Vandalism is brexit?
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.
Back when I was employable it was my job to process them in various industries. It wasn't until years later when I read in the guardian the it was de rigeur for the middle classes to fill them in "wine glass in hand" and give them a Trump Bump that I realised how incompetent I'd been.
I kinda have more sympathy with random voters wanting to express this sort of view.
I do not like the idea of people who are active within their own parties doing this, and I actually expect it is unlikely to be an activist. If it is, I would also expect local parties to be against such things.
This is a straight two-way fight. The Tory candidate lives in the seat. The Liberal Democrat does not, and is a Gog, born in Wrexham. That really will matter here. For a start, it means no votes from Plaid Cymru whatever the leadership advises.
If the Liberal Democrats win by more than a thousand votes, they've done superbly well and we should start taking them seriously as the next Opposition. I think there will be about 700 votes in it either way.
But at the moment, who knows?
In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
Taking the piss at the electorate or Theresa May's parting gift to Boris?
Hopefully Con will lose this seat by a landslide... They certainingly deserve to.
Trying to do it from the inside first.
And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).
The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
The difficulty seems to be that leavers want to square the circle, whereas the civil service insist on calling a circle a circle. The key quote being:
"The civil service is comfortable with the language of evidence . . . But Brexit is a values project. Inevitably this is why clashes keep happening"
I understand that many leavers here just straight up do not believe the predictions and so on, but I would really like to hear some of the arguments about why it is worth leaving EVEN IF some of the bad stuff is true.
Lib Dem 42%
Con 32%
Brex 19%
Lab 7%
Rather like people going so big on the horrors of no deal, hard Brexit becomes a warm and cuddly escape route.
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brecon and Radnorshire
Are you seriously suggesting that on the doorstop the Tories are saying “we know he is a convicted fraudster, but he’s our convicted fraudster”. I’d be telling them to shove it if he lived in the seat or not.
I fully agree with you it was a stupid decision. Jane Dodds does not appear to be very bright, and was a poor choice of leader. But with no MPs and only one AM who had just quit the leadership, it's fair to say their choice was rather limited.
https://www.onlondon.co.uk/richmond-big-swing-to-lib-dems-in-council-by-election-win-is-bad-news-for-zac-goldsmith/
The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
(only kidding!)