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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and

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  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don’t know the seat well ... The LIbdems are prime position to bring together opposition parties

    You're right, you really don't know the seat well.
    Well I’ve put my prediction out there - what is yours?
    Plaid are not standing. Labour will do poorly. So will the Brexit party. They are effectively fishing in the same pool of voters in Brecon, Ystradgynlais and Rhayader.

    This is a straight two-way fight. The Tory candidate lives in the seat. The Liberal Democrat does not, and is a Gog, born in Wrexham. That really will matter here. For a start, it means no votes from Plaid Cymru whatever the leadership advises.

    If the Liberal Democrats win by more than a thousand votes, they've done superbly well and we should start taking them seriously as the next Opposition. I think there will be about 700 votes in it either way.

    But at the moment, who knows?
    Well electoral calculus has it close but to Brexit Party

    https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brecon and Radnorshire

    Are you seriously suggesting that on the doorstop the Tories are saying “we know he is a convicted fraudster, but he’s our convicted fraudster”. I’d be telling them to shove it if he lived in the seat or not.
    What hey will be saying is, 'he's a local boy made good who made a silly mistake for which he has been punished. Now his political opponents for their own purposes are exploiting the issue and making use of you to try and get this Foreign woman into Parliament. Is it better to have a local or an arrogant outsider?'

    Whether it's true or not then becomes secondary to which one of the issues at hand people value more. In that seat, I think everyone is far too complacent in assuming an expenses cheat is a more serious matter than somebody from outside.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    Chris said:

    Rebel Alliance? Philip Hammond as Obi Wan Kenobi? Yvette Cooper as Princess Leia? Rory Stewart as Luke Skywalker? Boris Johnson as Jabba the Hutt!
    TSE as TSE-PO, the lawyer droid.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Chris said:

    Rebel Alliance? Philip Hammond as Obi Wan Kenobi? Yvette Cooper as Princess Leia? Rory Stewart as Luke Skywalker? Boris Johnson as Jabba the Hutt!
    Didn't Emperor Sheev Palpatine aka Darth Sidious prorogue the senate?
  • nico67 said:

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

    The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
    You're spinning a bit here. Not a lot of people in UK like the backstop; and Merkels willing to compromise. This is unashamedly good news (unless you're a Bollocks to Brexiter)

    But yes - she's on about changing the political declaration.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    That solution would need to be a "soft" Brexit, which the headbangers aren't going to accept
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    If the Tories didn’t want their posters vandalised by having the word “crook” written on them they shouldn’t have chosen a crook as their candidate.

    I used to love walking in the Brecon Beacons when I was a student. Beautiful place and happy memories.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Apologies. You were painting a similar picture. The sort of place any tr00 Trump supporter would send someone straight back to.
    Hilarious and true story. A man went from California to an Asian country to sell fibre optic technology. He told them that it had speeded up the network where he came from from around 30mbps to 60mbps. Then he asked how fast their broadband was.

    Completely seriously, one of the Asian executives replied, 'it's very slow today for some reason. It's only 87mbps.'
  • NemtynakhtNemtynakht Posts: 2,329
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    Bollocks to Boris?

    It will be interesting to see what happens. There are reasons Boris might not get a very big polling bounce akin to historic comparisons you point to.

    Brexit. All our politics today is through prism of brexit. If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

    he’s the biggest thing to celebrity politician we have had for very long time, meaning he’s hardly a fresh face or unknown quantity. If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, but probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, not so I argue with Boris, just reading this site alone he has already been quantified, weigh measured and for many found wanting, so once in job will instantly start meeting their expectations.

    On the other hand, if there is no bounce at all it is not end of the world. Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen. Blair got a baby Leo bounce, to show what pathetic fluff bounces are.
    Be interesting to see what happens if Boris flatlines, or worse, in the polls. I rather suspect a Johnson cult is developing across the Tory party and, like Labour, ex-kipper activists and ERG nutters will protect their hero at all costs.
    Personally I find Boris is overly demonised and as such basic competence may seem like amazing talent given how he is being described
    That is an excellent point Nemty, the power of expectations management.

    Rather like people going so big on the horrors of no deal, hard Brexit becomes a warm and cuddly escape route.
    As I noted upthread I do t understand the appeal of the Brexit Party at all, and the same applies to Boris. However the left have a habit of saying things that don’t chime in the wider world. When Gordon Brown called the woman in Rochdale a bigot for being concerned about immigration, or Emily Thornberry tweeted it was essentially racist to have an English flag on your house, it showed how the comfortably off middle classes of the media and politics miss the essential concerns of large numbers around the country. This is essentially how Brexit happened. If Cameron had had any connection to the average income voter around the county he would never have agreed to put a referendum in his manifesto.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    I don’t know the seat well ... The LIbdems are prime position to bring together opposition parties

    You're right, you really don't know the seat well.
    Well I’ve put my prediction out there - what is yours?
    Plaid are not standing. Labour will do poorly. So will the Brexit party. They are effectively fishing in the same pool of voters in Brecon, Ystradgynlais and Rhayader.

    This is a straight two-way fight. The Tory candidate lives in the seat. The Liberal Democrat does not, and is a Gog, born in Wrexham. That really will matter here. For a start, it means no votes from Plaid Cymru whatever the leadership advises.

    If the Liberal Democrats win by more than a thousand votes, they've done superbly well and we should start taking them seriously as the next Opposition. I think there will be about 700 votes in it either way.

    But at the moment, who knows?
    Does seem to be a poor choice of candidate for LDs. Was there really no one local who could stand?
    Yes. But she's the party leader so insisted she stand here herself. She claimed that living in Newtown(?) meant she was 'local.' I doubt if the voters there will agree.
    Welshpool, I read.

    I appreciate Powys is a big place and a right mix of old counties.. but all these places are in the county, so she'll be across a lot of local issues, and I can see why you'd go for a party leader (however unimpressive or uncompetitive the process to elect her), rather than the one guy who put his hand up when they met to agree what to put on the leaflets.

    I'll stick by my view that criminality will trump living ten miles outside the constituency when it comes to negative voting factors.

    It may not be a landslide, but I'll be stunned if the LDs don't win.
  • 148grss148grss Posts: 4,155

    148grss said:

    https://www.ft.com/content/ae03a4c6-a72d-11e9-984c-fac8325aaa04

    The difficulty seems to be that leavers want to square the circle, whereas the civil service insist on calling a circle a circle. The key quote being:

    "The civil service is comfortable with the language of evidence . . . But Brexit is a values project. Inevitably this is why clashes keep happening"

    I understand that many leavers here just straight up do not believe the predictions and so on, but I would really like to hear some of the arguments about why it is worth leaving EVEN IF some of the bad stuff is true.

    The FT paywall is strange. If you click on the link you can't get through, but if you click on the link, google search the headline and enter from the search it is fine. It has been like that for a long time so guessing deliberate but never understood why.
    Yeah, I read the entire thing as it was linked through a tweet, so it was fine.
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    Zephyr said:

    Bollocks to Boris?

    But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority

    Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.
    If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

    Be interesting to see what happens if Boris flatlines, or worse, in the polls. I rather suspect a Johnson cult is developing across the Tory party and, like Labour, ex-kipper activists and ERG nutters will protect their hero at all costs.
    Not a small cult. One that can control country and government for foreseeable future.

    Boris could get no bounce, but get stronger and stronger and be there ten years. The key thing many people seem to be missing, the thing that proves HY is one of the only posters talking sense: The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited by Boris and crew isn’t it?

    The clear lesson to us from 2016, Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left still don’t appear to have learnt this lesson or show the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters back. Corbyn and cable have proved dire leadership choices at a time when the right 2016 lessons must be learned, the decisions and fight back needed at this crucial time. It’s not the moment for getting greedy with your politics like Nick Palmer now is, or for hubris based on quicksand like last year’s Labour conference, or for insisting the current deal, ie what we have had for the last 25 years is the best deal, it doesn’t learn the lesson of 2016, it surrenders the 40+% landslide winning plurality for Boris to own.

    So Boris might not get much polling bounce, but PM Boris for 10-15 years, and very powerful half way through cannot be ruled out.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Cyclefree said:

    If the Tories didn’t want their posters vandalised by having the word “crook” written on them they shouldn’t have chosen a crook as their candidate.

    I used to love walking in the Brecon Beacons when I was a student. Beautiful place and happy memories.

    I wouldn't have picked the word 'crook,' however. Lots of crooks in Mid Wales. Shepherds use them every day...
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    If the Tories didn’t want their posters vandalised by having the word “crook” written on them they shouldn’t have chosen a crook as their candidate.

    I used to love walking in the Brecon Beacons when I was a student. Beautiful place and happy memories.

    I wouldn't have picked the word 'crook,' however. Lots of crooks in Mid Wales. Shepherds use them every day...
    The election slogan should be: "We will leave by hook or by crook."
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    One bank which shall remain nameless had a poster up saying that they hired people “without any regard to their physical or mental ability”.

    Explained a lot about why they were always in such a mess.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    I'll stick by my view that criminality will trump living ten miles outside the constituency when it comes to negative voting factors.

    I agree it should. I just don't think it will.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    I'm particularly enjoying the stereotypical Conservative Leaver line which comprises:

    1) Brexit is more important than the survival of the Conservative party, but also

    2) How dare Conservative anti-no dealers put their views ahead of the majority of the Conservative party?

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847
    There is no way Boris gives a toss about what the public finances look like in 2024 if he can stay PM until then. Spend, spend, spend, cut any taxes on the elderly will be his "plan".
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    haha. No doubt there is a high tech solution to that particular issue!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    Cyclefree said:

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    One bank which shall remain nameless had a poster up saying that they hired people “without any regard to their physical or mental ability”.

    Explained a lot about why they were always in such a mess.
    Slogan for the House of Commons? :wink:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    I'm particularly enjoying the stereotypical Conservative Leaver line which comprises:

    1) Brexit is more important than the survival of the Conservative party, but also

    2) How dare Conservative anti-no dealers put their views ahead of the majority of the Conservative party?

    Consistency is not exactly the forte of those with extreme views and low IQs
  • noneoftheabovenoneoftheabove Posts: 22,847

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    Guessing fake news judging by the poster clearly being put on top of whatever what someone paid to have up. Funny, though.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited July 2019
    Could we do a recall petition in Uxbridge? 25% of the population want him sent to the moon so getting the numbers in Uxbridge should be a walkover

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    ydoethur said:

    Cyclefree said:

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    One bank which shall remain nameless had a poster up saying that they hired people “without any regard to their physical or mental ability”.

    Explained a lot about why they were always in such a mess.
    Slogan for the House of Commons? :wink:
    Or for the Boris Johnson leadership campaign?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    It's possible that Corbyn could have a few decent people in his cabinet, looking at the Tory ranks it really is threadbare...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited July 2019

    nico67 said:

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

    The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
    You're spinning a bit here. Not a lot of people in UK like the backstop; and Merkels willing to compromise. This is unashamedly good news (unless you're a Bollocks to Brexiter)

    But yes - she's on about changing the political declaration.
    Merkel and Germany need a resolution as their economy enters choppy waters and their car industry heads into crisis. Also read an article from an Irish paper saying tht Varadker is coming under real pressure to be constructive, as a hard border created by the EU comes into view anytime from 31st October.

    Lots of moving parts and I am still hopeful a WDA can be agreed and for us to move on, allowing those who want to remain to campaign to re-join.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    Guessing fake news judging by the poster clearly being put on top of whatever what someone paid to have up. Funny, though.
    Yeah, Tube trains have their posters positioned interior to the poster frame :)
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    Bollocks to Boris?

    But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority

    Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.
    If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

    Be interesting to see what happens if Boris flatlines, or worse, in the polls. I rather suspect a Johnson cult is developing across the Tory party and, like Labour, ex-kipper activists and ERG nutters will protect their hero at all costs.
    Not a small cult. One that can control country and government for foreseeable future.

    Boris could get no bounce, but get stronger and stronger and be there ten years. The key thing many people seem to be missing, the thing that proves HY is one of the only posters talking sense: The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited by Boris and crew isn’t it?

    The clear lesson to us from 2016, Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left still don’t appear to have learnt this lesson or show the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters back. Corbyn and cable have proved dire leadership choices at a time when the right 2016 lessons must be learned, the decisions and fight back needed at this crucial time. It’s not the moment for getting greedy with your politics like Nick Palmer now is, or for hubris based on quicksand like last year’s Labour conference, or for insisting the current deal, ie what we have had for the last 25 years is the best deal, it doesn’t learn the lesson of 2016, it surrenders the 40+% landslide winning plurality for Boris to own.

    So Boris might not get much polling bounce, but PM Boris for 10-15 years, and very powerful half way through cannot be ruled out.
    Maybe.

    I remain of the view that zealous, long-held Leaver and Remainer sentiment is restricted to 20-30 per cent on either side. That's probably the natural floor for a Boris govt that delivers (if they turn out). The rest will depend on him actually being any good. If he's not careful, then like Corbyn, the ceiling of his support will not be much higher than the floor.

    The 52 per cent was an extremely broad coalition (despite the seemingly prevalent view that all of them are nailed-on No Dealers). Boris will do well to get a significant chunk of it.
  • hamiltonacehamiltonace Posts: 660

    There is no way Boris gives a toss about what the public finances look like in 2024 if he can stay PM until then. Spend, spend, spend, cut any taxes on the elderly will be his "plan".
    Boris may not care but the markets will. Sterling is on a one way trip down to $1 = £1 with Boris in charge. What has surprised me is that inflation is still so subdued. I have a feeling that events will overtake his premiership
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Zephyr said:

    Zephyr said:

    Bollocks to Boris?

    But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority

    Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.
    If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

    Be interesting to see what happens if Boris flatlines, or worse, in the polls. I rather suspect a Johnson cult is developing across the Tory party and, like Labour, ex-kipper activists and ERG nutters will protect their hero at all costs.
    Not a small cult. One that can control country and government for foreseeable future.

    Boris could get no bounce, but get stronger and stronger and be there ten years. The key thing many people seem to be missing, the thing that proves HY is one of the only posters talking sense: The electoral demographic that surprised remain in 2016, a situation created by Blair Brown Cameron is there to be exploited by Boris and crew isn’t it?

    The clear lesson to us from 2016, Blair, Brown, Cameron, Osborne spent a quarter of a century stoking a 40%+ plurality for Boris, Bannon, Crosby and The Sun to now exploit! Much like Thatcher in the 1980s, the 2020s belong to them. Since 2016 the centre and left still don’t appear to have learnt this lesson or show the discipline and hunger for power required to win those voters back. Corbyn and cable have proved dire leadership choices at a time when the right 2016 lessons must be learned, the decisions and fight back needed at this crucial time. It’s not the moment for getting greedy with your politics like Nick Palmer now is, or for hubris based on quicksand like last year’s Labour conference, or for insisting the current deal, ie what we have had for the last 25 years is the best deal, it doesn’t learn the lesson of 2016, it surrenders the 40+% landslide winning plurality for Boris to own.

    So Boris might not get much polling bounce, but PM Boris for 10-15 years, and very powerful half way through cannot be ruled out.
    That rather assumes there is a coherent program that can unite that 40%.

    Of course for now, Brexit does just that. But it is a slogan, not a program.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426



    nico67 said:

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

    The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
    You're spinning a bit here. Not a lot of people in UK like the backstop; and Merkels willing to compromise. This is unashamedly good news (unless you're a Bollocks to Brexiter)

    But yes - she's on about changing the political declaration.
    Merkel and Germany need a resolution as their economy enters choppy waters and their car industry heads into crisis. Also read an article from an Irish paper saying tht Varadker is coming under real pressure to be constructive, as a hard border created by the EU comes into view anytime from 31st October.

    Lots of moving parts and I am still hopeful a WDA can be agreed and for us to move on, allowing those who want to remain to campaign to re-join.

    Th oft-mentioned compromise on here of saying Northern Ireland could vote to leave it in a referendum would surely be sufficient. After all, in practice they never would so it would have the same effect while offering a fig leaf to the DUP.

    And that would also mean everyone could pretend to have trade talks before simply accepting what to most people is a very workable compromise - in the single market, but not the political or legal structures.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    Ewe might very wool think that: I couldn't possibly comment.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    ydoethur said:



    nico67 said:

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

    The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
    You're spinning a bit here. Not a lot of people in UK like the backstop; and Merkels willing to compromise. This is unashamedly good news (unless you're a Bollocks to Brexiter)

    But yes - she's on about changing the political declaration.
    Merkel and Germany need a resolution as their economy enters choppy waters and their car industry heads into crisis. Also read an article from an Irish paper saying tht Varadker is coming under real pressure to be constructive, as a hard border created by the EU comes into view anytime from 31st October.

    Lots of moving parts and I am still hopeful a WDA can be agreed and for us to move on, allowing those who want to remain to campaign to re-join.

    Th oft-mentioned compromise on here of saying Northern Ireland could vote to leave it in a referendum would surely be sufficient. After all, in practice they never would so it would have the same effect while offering a fig leaf to the DUP.

    And that would also mean everyone could pretend to have trade talks before simply accepting what to most people is a very workable compromise - in the single market, but not the political or legal structures.
    Could be but lets hope a way through this is found and soon
  • ydoethur said:



    nico67 said:

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

    The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
    You're spinning a bit here. Not a lot of people in UK like the backstop; and Merkels willing to compromise. This is unashamedly good news (unless you're a Bollocks to Brexiter)

    But yes - she's on about changing the political declaration.
    Merkel and Germany need a resolution as their economy enters choppy waters and their car industry heads into crisis. Also read an article from an Irish paper saying tht Varadker is coming under real pressure to be constructive, as a hard border created by the EU comes into view anytime from 31st October.

    Lots of moving parts and I am still hopeful a WDA can be agreed and for us to move on, allowing those who want to remain to campaign to re-join.

    Th oft-mentioned compromise on here of saying Northern Ireland could vote to leave it in a referendum would surely be sufficient. After all, in practice they never would so it would have the same effect while offering a fig leaf to the DUP.

    And that would also mean everyone could pretend to have trade talks before simply accepting what to most people is a very workable compromise - in the single market, but not the political or legal structures.
    This is nampy-pampyism given our new brexiteer-in-chief.

    Enough of the nonsense. Brexit is a side-show (EU being a glorified trade body)

    Time to re-negotiate the GFA (given the Brexit vote) and most importantly-

    Get #indyref2 over and done with.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313



    nico67 said:

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

    The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .
    You're spinning a bit here. Not a lot of people in UK like the backstop; and Merkels willing to compromise. This is unashamedly good news (unless you're a Bollocks to Brexiter)

    But yes - she's on about changing the political declaration.
    Merkel and Germany need a resolution as their economy enters choppy waters and their car industry heads into crisis. Also read an article from an Irish paper saying tht Varadker is coming under real pressure to be constructive, as a hard border created by the EU comes into view anytime from 31st October.

    Lots of moving parts and I am still hopeful a WDA can be agreed and for us to move on, allowing those who want to remain to campaign to re-join.

    Agree with your last sentence, but let us not pretend any future hard border has been "created by the EU". That is just complete nonsense. The British government invented the backstop, and the 52% who voted for leave caused the issue in the first place
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    Sometimes I feel the same about Liberal Democrats in the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle .... :naughty:
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the similarity to the appearance of Trump is intentional by the cartoonist?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    JackW said:

    Other Conservative posters could also be improved:


    Sometimes I feel the same about Liberal Democrats in the dungeons of Auchentennach Castle .... :naughty:
    Maybe it is a euphemism of sorts for what Boris is about to do to Tory support?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited July 2019
    @ydoethur said "Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent"

    .................................................................................................

    Waiting for mutton dressed as lamb to comment .... aka @TSE ..... :innocent:
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    I wonder whether the similarity to the appearance of Trump is intentional by the cartoonist?

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1148902722541932544
  • The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

    I did the other day as well. It was cus Ginnumbers played a nasty NLP hypnotist trick on us - very naughty.

  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

    I am coming round to the idea, and accept that, like Italians, we now have to accept our political class is a global laughing stock. I have always been a moderate Conservative because I believe Conservative's normally create the best conditions for business. Well they have fucked that USP up good and proper now! However I think business is now adjusting to the new certainty that everything is uncertain. Britain is certainly in decline now, and that is sad, but we will all just have to get on with it. I will never vote Conservative while they have that idiot in charge, so the LDs can have my vote for a while.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Krugman: "But as far as the economy goes, the odds are that Trump’s deficit-fueled bump came too soon to do him much political good."

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/18/opinion/2020-trump-economy.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    You are pulling the wool over our eyes!
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Scott_P said:

    I wonder whether the similarity to the appearance of Trump is intentional by the cartoonist?

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1148902722541932544
    That is horrible but very clever. I wonder how long before he is depicted in the top pocket of Donald Trump?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

    I did the other day as well. It was cus Ginnumbers played a nasty NLP hypnotist trick on us - very naughty.

    I keep thinking about the Strait in Iran going pear shaped and the dynamic duo of Trump and Johnson responding. Johnson's failure to do detail could be catastrophic.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.

    Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".

    The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.

    The Tories could have substituted an unconvicted fraudster of the now standard type.
  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    edited July 2019

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

    I am coming round to the idea, and accept that, like Italians, we now have to accept our political class is a global laughing stock. I have always been a moderate Conservative because I believe Conservative's normally create the best conditions for business. Well they have fucked that USP up good and proper now! However I think business is now adjusting to the new certainty that everything is uncertain. Britain is certainly in decline now, and that is sad, but we will all just have to get on with it. I will never vote Conservative while they have that idiot in charge, so the LDs can have my vote for a while.
    I think I will wait and see what the idiot actually does before making my mind up.

    Rhetoric, leaks and rumours are not the same as actions.

    Still, until the fat lady sings, there is a chancer (edit: chance, but a good typo!) that Hunt wins.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    You are pulling the wool over our eyes!
    ewe didn't need to ram the point home you know!
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited July 2019
    Deleted annoying double post due to a service drop. The internet here's barely better than that in Mid-Wales.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    You are pulling the wool over our eyes!
    Fine, alpacat in.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,208

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    No change. All UK Customs Union and regulatory alignment been agreed by the EU for more than a year now.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    You are pulling the wool over our eyes!
    Fine, alpacat in.
    not sure I can tup that one
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Scott_P said:

    I wonder whether the similarity to the appearance of Trump is intentional by the cartoonist?

    https://twitter.com/George_Osborne/status/1148902722541932544
    That is horrible but very clever. I wonder how long before he is depicted in the top pocket of Donald Trump?
    Someone did it here yesterday, I think.
  • JBriskinindyref2JBriskinindyref2 Posts: 1,775
    edited July 2019

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

    I did the other day as well. It was cus Ginnumbers played a nasty NLP hypnotist trick on us - very naughty.

    I keep thinking about the Strait in Iran going pear shaped and the dynamic duo of Trump and Johnson responding. Johnson's failure to do detail could be catastrophic.
    The thing about Iran is that at least it will be by accident. Remember the "Stop the War" march that happened before invasion (RE: Iraq). All rather bizarre.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the similarity to the appearance of Trump is intentional by the cartoonist?
    Or by God.
  • Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    I doubt wether that is true....
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 14,313
    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:
    I wonder whether the similarity to the appearance of Trump is intentional by the cartoonist?
    Or by God.
    I don't think The Good Lord deliberately inflicts such individuals upon us with such wicked intent. Beelzebub might do though
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884

    ydoethur said:

    ydoethur said:

    JackW said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    ydoethur said:

    Zephyr said:

    On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

    But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

    What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

    Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

    There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.
    No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

    In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?
    Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

    And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

    The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.
    There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...
    Wales isn't in Mongolia.
    Bah bah humbug ..... the sheep don't know that .. :smile:

    Without wishing to allama you, sheep are quite intelligent.
    You are pulling the wool over our eyes!
    Fine, alpacat in.
    not sure I can tup that one
    Lamb-asting, I see.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
    I'm very surprised at that - I thought Labour was a shoe in
  • Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    Semantics - the backstop is now de facto negotiable.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
    eek said:

    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
    I'm very surprised at that - I thought Labour was a shoe in
    Shoo-in.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
    I'm very surprised at that - I thought Labour was a shoe in
    Shoo-in.
    Ever been down the Bigg Market on a Friday night...
  • eek said:

    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...

    Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    eek said:

    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...

    Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
    In the sense of superseded.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    edited July 2019

    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
    Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.

    Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    The fact Merkel has commented on it is significant. Both Merkel and Varadker having to contemplate compromise to prevent a catastrophy to both the EU and UK

    I do not expect you to see any good in compromise as you have been consistent in wanting brexit stopped
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    Semantics - the backstop is now de facto negotiable.
    It always was to the extent that it was always intended to be replaced by alternative arrangements in the future relationship, and was never intended to come into effect. You are clutching at straws.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...

    Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
    Once a solution has been found

    And that has been the case since the backstop first appeared - and without a backstop we can't actually leave the single market as the Good Friday agreement puts Northern Ireland in a no-man's land..
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    Semantics - the backstop is now de facto negotiable.
    Merkel getting shaky on the back-stop?
  • eek said:

    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...

    Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
    In the sense of superseded.
    or negotiated out of existence.

    Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216
    edited July 2019
    Do you agree or disagree that, ‘If Boris Johnson is the next Prime Minister and is unable to get a better deal from the EU by the 31st of October, he should resign and hold an immediate General Election’?
    Field work dates: 15 July 2019 - 16 July 2019
    Data from: Great Britain
    (ex-DK)

    Total Agree: 55%
    Total Disagree: 26%

    https://whatukthinks.org/eu/questions/do-you-agree-or-disagree-that-if-boris-johnson-is-the-next-prime-minister-and-is-unable-to-get-a-better-deal-from-the-eu-by-the-31st-of-october-he-should-resign-and-hold-an-immediate-general-elect/
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    The fact Merkel has commented on it is significant. Both Merkel and Varadker having to contemplate compromise to prevent a catastrophy to both the EU and UK

    I do not expect you to see any good in compromise as you have been consistent in wanting brexit stopped
    She was asked a question by the FT in a long press conference on foreign affairs so you shouldn't read anything into her answer.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    That independent in Northumbria is an ex-Tory:

    https://tinyurl.com/yy3z3ox8

    The independent councillor, who represents Berwick , describes herself as a “long-standing transparency, anti-corruption and local government reform campaigner”.

    The 41-year-old, formerly a Conservative, hit the headlines in 2015 when she was ruled to have bullied a town clerk.

    Northumberland County Council’ s standards committee also found that the then Berwick town councillor had brought the authority into disrepute by comparing it to North Korea and referring to her colleagues as “rogue and manipulated” in a Facebook post.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    edited July 2019
    ydoethur said:

    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
    Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.

    Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...
    Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720

    eek said:

    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...

    Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
    In the sense of superseded.
    or negotiated out of existence.

    Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
    Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.
  • Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    Semantics - the backstop is now de facto negotiable.
    Merkel getting shaky on the back-stop?
    LOL - it's apparently moot (on) (mutton geddit?)
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters

    “But the moment that a solution for the management of the border is found in (the declaration on) the future relationship — so for the European Union’s future ties to Britain — which basically squares the circle — on the one hand I have no physical border but on the other hand the EU Single Market ends — that satisfies both questions, then the backstop will be overwritten, so to speak.”

    Merkel added: “This means the task is to draft future relations that way and perhaps to draft them more specifically and better and more precisely than so far.”

    So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...

    Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
    In the sense of superseded.
    or negotiated out of existence.

    Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
    Yes - if we leave with No Deal - Northern Ireland will join the republic and the SNP will win their fight for independence...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    Pulpstar said:

    ydoethur said:

    First time this has gone to the 2nd round. Lab vote down over 17%.
    Adjusted for turnout, the Labour vote appears to have been cut to pieces. Tories steady, Lib Dems up, but the Indie candidate appears to have been the joker.

    Labour struggling in their strongholds. Yet another piece of evidence...
    Lib Dem & non transfers should see Labour over the line I think. Is this AV or SV ?
    SV
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    The fact Merkel has commented on it is significant. Both Merkel and Varadker having to contemplate compromise to prevent a catastrophy to both the EU and UK

    I do not expect you to see any good in compromise as you have been consistent in wanting brexit stopped
    She was asked a question by the FT in a long press conference on foreign affairs so you shouldn't read anything into her answer.
    Why other than you do not want it to
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426

    Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

    Merkel's exact words referred to the future relationship, i.e. the backstop is not a permanent solution, so there's no change in position.
    Yes the verbatim ticker made that clear.

    Your analysis is wrong though. There's a change in position - the backstop is now negotiable.
    No it isn't. Merkel's comments do not imply any change to the withdrawal agreement.
    Semantics - the backstop is now de facto negotiable.
    Merkel getting shaky on the back-stop?
    LOL - it's apparently moot (on) (mutton geddit?)
    That's baaaly coherent.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

    Hmm, their message at the GE is going to be "better an economy wrecking right wing clown than an economy wrecking far left clown". God help us!
    At least Boris is actually funny on occasion. Corbyn is not.
    Maybe that will be what swings it. Our clown is amusing and theirs is a sanctimonious bore that makes children cry when they look at him, particularly if he is wearing a long mac
    Never mind children, he makes me cry when I look at him.
    Well indeed. Boris has a similar effect on me when I think that he might be PM
    I actually woke in a cold sweat yesterday with that thought. Not sure I ever been actually a little bit scared about any other individual becoming PM in my lifetime.

    I am coming round to the idea, and accept that, like Italians, we now have to accept our political class is a global laughing stock. I have always been a moderate Conservative because I believe Conservative's normally create the best conditions for business. Well they have fucked that USP up good and proper now! However I think business is now adjusting to the new certainty that everything is uncertain. Britain is certainly in decline now, and that is sad, but we will all just have to get on with it. I will never vote Conservative while they have that idiot in charge, so the LDs can have my vote for a while.
    Our political class is very mediocre. But, very mediocre is still better than most.

    There are very very few places where the political class is actually impressive - perhaps Singapore, Taiwan, and the Baltic states.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    After the discussion claims the other day over people switching from drink to drugs due to minimum pricing....

    £2.5bn investor: 'Americans have stopped drinking beer and have switched to cannabis'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/investing/funds/25bn-investor-americans-have-stopped-drinking-beer-have-switched/

    Anybody who has been forced to drink "domestic" american beer for years, it isn't a hard sell to get them to switch!
This discussion has been closed.