Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
What crap. It will be just the NI/I border all over again (especially given the Scotnat's love of the EU).
You didn't read what I said. If Scotland were in the single market and customs union and England were not, there is no political reason why there cannot be a normal customs border there. There is no Good Friday Agreement to protect.
However, in practice it is highly unlikely that England/rUK would be outside the single market and customs union anyway. It would either still be in the EU, or in a transition state that meant there would be no need for economic borders.
Just think what you are saying. A border from Carlisle to Berwick would be an economic disaster for Scotland and have you any idea the volume of traffic criss crossing between Scotland and England every hour of every day.
The whole idea of a Scottish customs border is barmy and is one of the many reasons Scottish Independence will fail
You clearly didn't read the second paragraph. I said it will not need to happen, because England will not successfully leave the single market and customs union. The economic hegemon on these islands is not London but Brussels.
You have no idea where this goes but I can tell you there will not be a Scottish border as Scotland will not vote for independence
Is that on the basis of Westminster and your party, the Tories, continually blocking a referendum, or Scots voting against it?
Scots voting against it
Cool. I hope, if you don't end your association with them, that you lobby your party to end it's obstructive policy of believing that they are the best people to decide on whether Scots should have a referendum.
I have been married for over 55 years to a Scot, have a large Scots family, have lived in Berwick on Tweed and Edinburgh and greatly value the union.
Of course the Scots should have the decision but after the disaster of the UK EU referendum I think the Scots would be wise to let things calm down
Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.
He is not, of course, a convicted fraudster. As the judge who sentenced him said, he did not benefit financially in any way from his actions. As the law stands that means it was stupid but it was not fraud.
Convicted expenses fiddler does not sound any better.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
From the Politico article linked in the last thread, I note that it defines the East Midlands as "the marginals of Mansfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Ashfield, North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield".
As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)
Are there any marginals in the southern area of the east midlands though ? Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)
Didn't Chesterfield use to be LibDem in the Blair years?
Won in a by election I think
No - it was won in 2001 when Tony Benn stood down.
It was an example of where a spirited LibDem by-election campaign created the organisation and momentum that didn’t win but subsequently carried through to winning the seat
Indeed - though the by election was in 1984. I believe it was also one of the few Labour gains in 2010!
For sure. But look at the wards won on Chesterfield Borough Council. The 1984 by-election enabled the LibDems to knock the Tories out of being the opposition to Labour in the town, and in the local elections following the by-election the LibDem council group overtook the Tories. From there it took three further rounds of local elections for the LDs to become the largest party. Then the council, then the parliamentary seat.
Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and even if that was overcome the Lib Dems would slaughter the party
Could you maybe produce a list of which violent imagery you do and don't accept in political discussion? I never would have thought you'd be okay with "slaughter", given your issues with (IIRC) "knife" and "decapitate"
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and even if that was overcome the Lib Dems would slaughter the party
Could you maybe produce a list of which violent imagery you do and don't accept in political discussion? I never would have thought you'd be okay with "slaughter", given your issues with (IIRC) "knife" and "decapitate"
Good point and slaughter was wrong to use. Thank you for drawing this to my attention
I should have said overwhelmed and am sorry for my lack of thought
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
Morning all. I was very amused to see the reports that the ERGers are trying to get IDS into the role of Deputy PM. Surely it can't be the case that they don't entirely trust Boris, can it? Also interesting to see the suggestion that the rules should be changed so that Boris can't be challenged for a year. Have they learnt nothing from the Theresa May experience of having a leader who has lost the confidence of MPs but who is stuck in office?
More importantly, I think the big development is the passing of the Benn-Burt amendment yesterday. That means that the sane group of Tory MPs now don't need to go for the nuclear option of immediately supporting a VONC, since there will be time in September and October to prevent a No Deal crash out. That surely guarantees that Boris will indeed by PM and won't immediately face VONC. That in turn also means that there won't be a pre-October 31st GE.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
Boris cannot call a GE due to the FTPA and even if that was overcome the Lib Dems would slaughter the party
Could you maybe produce a list of which violent imagery you do and don't accept in political discussion? I never would have thought you'd be okay with "slaughter", given your issues with (IIRC) "knife" and "decapitate"
Good point and slaughter was wrong to use. Thank you for drawing this to my attention
I should have said overwhelmed and am sorry for my lack of thought
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
Boris is subject to the mps in the HOC. He is not (yet) a dictator
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
Would the ERG vote for an open ended standstill transition exit now that Boris would be in charge of future negotiations. He can claim to have left, tory remainers would accept it, EU would accept it. It is obviously BINO until a FTA is agreed but ERG seem confident that can be done quickly.
If he has ERG pledged support for such a plan (and it is probably the ERGs best chance of getting their long term objective), then his campaign makes a lot more sense.
Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.
He is not, of course, a convicted fraudster. As the judge who sentenced him said, he did not benefit financially in any way from his actions. As the law stands that means it was stupid but it was not fraud.
I apologise. Forging invoices.
(Googling this.. there's evidence of quite a lot of reports of the case referring to fraud.. some of which appear to have been altered since! My bad for absorbing some of that without grasping the nuances).
A lot has changed, the Withdrawal Agreement could be passed and the Irish border dealt with in the future PD
The WA, unchanged, with the backstop?
Backstop removed to the non legally binding PD and replaced by technical solutions
That's how you interpret "Merkel sticks to the Withdrawal Agreement. However, she says that there might be new talks on the Political declaration: "There I see room [for further negotiation]". " ?
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
I disagree with all of that. The Brexit Party will not win any seats in Wales. Moreover, if Corbyn became PM , voters would take a different view of him - and he could expect his own 'bounce'.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
A lot has changed, the Withdrawal Agreement could be passed and the Irish border dealt with in the future PD
The WA, unchanged, with the backstop?
Backstop removed to the non legally binding PD and replaced by technical solutions
That's how you interpret "Merkel sticks to the Withdrawal Agreement. However, she says that there might be new talks on the Political declaration: "There I see room [for further negotiation]". " ?
She says a new solution for the Irish border in the PD could replace and remove the backstop from the Withdrawal Agreement
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
I disagree with all of that. The Brexit Party will not win any seats in Wales. Moreover, if Corbyn became PM , voters would take a different view of him - and he could expect his own 'bounce'.
Oh no, the Brexit Party of course won most seats in the European Parliament elections in South Wales and of course working class voters in Labour Leave seats would see Corbyn as a traitor for siding with the LDs and posh Tory diehard Remainers to block Brexit on the scale of Ramsay MacDonald
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
The ideal plan for Labour be it Corbyn or anyone else is to leave Boris in place suffering, floundering and failing to achieve anything until mid October....
Asking for an election and being told that an extension is required is just one piece of theatre that can (and probably would) be used to make Boris look out of his depth...
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
I disagree with all of that. The Brexit Party will not win any seats in Wales. Moreover, if Corbyn became PM , voters would take a different view of him - and he could expect his own 'bounce'.
If Corbyn won voters would take a different view of him and despair as the markets crash, their pensions are filleted, and our Country's security is put at risk with his anti west pro Hamas, Iran and Russia mentality, and as for anti semitism ..........
Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.
He is not, of course, a convicted fraudster. As the judge who sentenced him said, he did not benefit financially in any way from his actions. As the law stands that means it was stupid but it was not fraud.
Convicted expenses fiddler does not sound any better.
And whether he benefited is a moot point. He didn’t forge the two receipts for no reason, after all, and he decided to split the cost of the pictures between two different budgets because he couldn’t claim the lot from a single budget.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
Yes Parliament can force Boris to choose between being the shortest-serving and least successful PM in history and seeking an extension. And I think he would choose the latter.
Shall we look at what Merkel says via Reuters So nothing has changed - the backstop is required until a non backstop solution is found...
Key words "Backstop" "will" "be" "overwritten"
In the sense of superseded.
or negotiated out of existence.
Remoaners can play word games for Britain. Without seeming to understand that Brexit is the sideshow and Britain itself is at stake.
Indeed, the dissolution of the UK would be one way to remove the relevance of the backstop.
The dissolution of the UK is not going to happen. Scotland leaving it (thus creating even more backstop style issues) and splitting the island in half might happen.
Or to put it another way-
BREXIT IS A SIDESHOW
Scotland leaving does not create any backstop-style issues. There's no political reason why there cannot be a customs border between England and Scotland, and plenty of political and economic reasons why one would never come about.
You really think a border from Carlisle to Berwick affecting 45 billion of goods and services (2016) v 12 billion to the EU is not going to create an economic earthquake for Scotland you are very misguided
Look at it from England's perspective. It becomes even harder than it already was to contemplate leaving the single market and customs union. Scottish independence in the EU would keep rUK/England in the EU system.
I have no interest in England's interest but I have in Scotland's and a customs border between Scotland and England is unthinkable
A customs border between England and Scotland would be a lot easier to set up than one between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. It's a lot shorter border, far fewer roads cross it and border habits are much more clearly regulated.
Hold on, I still haven't done the railway from Ayr to Stanraer or everything north of the Central Belt!
I expect the line from Perth to Inverness will be nice, but when I last travelled that way it was on a November evening and there was nothing to see in the dark.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
The ideal plan for Labour be it Corbyn or anyone else is to leave Boris in place suffering, floundering and failing to achieve anything until mid October....
Asking for an election and being told that an extension is required is just one piece of theatre that can (and probably would) be used to make Boris look out of his depth...
Boris can just refuse an extension then and unless he loses a VONC we Brexit on October 31st, job done
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
The ideal plan for Labour be it Corbyn or anyone else is to leave Boris in place suffering, floundering and failing to achieve anything until mid October....
Asking for an election and being told that an extension is required is just one piece of theatre that can (and probably would) be used to make Boris look out of his depth...
Boris can just refuse an extension then and unless he loses a VONC we Brexit on October 31st, job done
Mid October the VONC occurs and Boris is the least successful, shortest reign PM is history...
Then having failed to leave the EU Boris has to fight a December election after failing to achieve the only thing he promised..
First, it is the political declaration and secondly the whole point of the backstop is that it exists in the absence of a deal and any deal would therefore render it obsolete.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
They simply present him with a less attractive alternative, and he believes that they mean it.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
I disagree with all of that. The Brexit Party will not win any seats in Wales. Moreover, if Corbyn became PM , voters would take a different view of him - and he could expect his own 'bounce'.
Oh no, the Brexit Party of course won most seats in the European Parliament elections in South Wales and of course working class voters in Labour Leave seats would see Corbyn as a traitor for siding with the LDs and posh Tory diehard Remainers to block Brexit on the scale of Ramsay MacDonald
It is remarkable you keep pusing the posh Tory remainers line when the leading brexiteers are Rees Mogg, Boris and Farage!
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
It depends what question you ask. Of course very few prefer an extension to their preferred outcome.
How many leavers prefer an extension to revoke? How many remainers prefer an extension to no deal?
The poll has 48% of East Midlands voters backing No Deal, more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for extension combined. 46% of North West voters back No Deal, more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined.
53% of Londoners and 51% of Scots meanwhile ie a narrow outright majority, back Revoke and Remain.
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
If he wants an election, Labour can impose any condition they like, and as Alastair pointed out in his article a couple of days ago, this is a rare case where naked political calculation, the national interest and democratic principle would all work together.
Alternatively, if Boris doesn't want to go down that route, then he's stuck with the parliament he's got and the sensible Tories now have a perfectly respectable, non-nuclear way of ensuring that the UK asks for an Article 50. All they now need to do is to follow the excellent example of Steve Baker, Boris, IDS, Jacob Rees-Mogg etc and vote with the opposition in what they see as the national interest, in this case to mandate that we ask for an extension. If Boris is unwilling to do this, that's not a big problem. Parliament is sovereign, it can change the rules as much as it likes and appoint someone else to deliver the message to Brussels.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
If he wants an election, Labour can impose any condition they like, and as Alastair pointed out in his article a couple of days ago, this is a rare case where naked political calculation, the national interest and democratic principle would all work together.
Alternatively, if Boris doesn't want to go down that route, then he's stuck with the parliament he's got and the sensible Tories now have a perfectly respectable, non-nuclear way of ensuring that the UK asks for an Article 50. All they now need to do is to follow the excellent example of Steve Baker, Boris, IDS, Jacob Rees-Mogg etc and vote with the opposition to mandate that we ask for an extension. If Boris is unwilling to do this, that's not a big problem. Parliament is sovereign, it can change the rules as much as it likes and appoint someone else to deliver the message to Brussels.
Fine, then Boris goes into opposition with Leavers behind him and with Farage prepares to slaughter Corbyn in Labour Leave seats at the next general election
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
It depends what question you ask. Of course very few prefer an extension to their preferred outcome.
How many leavers prefer an extension to revoke? How many remainers prefer an extension to no deal?
The poll has 48% of East Midlands voters backing No Deal, more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for extension combined. 46% of North West voters back No Deal, more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined.
53% of Londoners and 51% of Scots meanwhile ie a narrow outright majority, back Revoke and Remain.
Other posters have suggested the poll is unreliable with samples drawn to lead to more polarised splits than across the population. i.e. as I understand it, no Manchester or Liverpool in the North West.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
How can Boris be forced to ask for an extension if he does not want to? Parliament has no power to force him to do so against his wishes. The only thing they can do is VoNC him.
The ideal plan for Labour be it Corbyn or anyone else is to leave Boris in place suffering, floundering and failing to achieve anything until mid October....
Asking for an election and being told that an extension is required is just one piece of theatre that can (and probably would) be used to make Boris look out of his depth...
Boris can just refuse an extension then and unless he loses a VONC we Brexit on October 31st, job done
Mid October the VONC occurs and Boris is the least successful, shortest reign PM is history...
Then having failed to leave the EU Boris has to fight a December election after failing to achieve the only thing he promised..
Nope, Boris remain PM if Parliament not sitting for an election campaign, refuses extension on October 31st, Brexit delivered and election won
There's probably only one course of action that could save Boris but it's very high risk.
And that's on Thursday to call a General Election. Go straight for the jugular: a do-or-die Brexit mandate. Election date in early September.
He won't because like most politicians he loves the trappings of power and he thinks he's got some Churchillian destiny about him. Which will be one of a myriad reasons for his downfall.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
It depends what question you ask. Of course very few prefer an extension to their preferred outcome.
How many leavers prefer an extension to revoke? How many remainers prefer an extension to no deal?
The poll has 48% of East Midlands voters backing No Deal, more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for extension combined. 46% of North West voters back No Deal, more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined.
53% of Londoners and 51% of Scots meanwhile ie a narrow outright majority, back Revoke and Remain.
Other posters have suggested the poll is unreliable with samples drawn to lead to more polarised splits than across the population. i.e. as I understand it, no Manchester or Liverpool in the North West.
I'd imagine that the family of Lyra McKee may disagree with you, but I daresay you're of the 'Jo Cox, move on, nothing to see here' mindset.
It does seem to occupy the thoughts of those of a less blithe outlook though.
Fears of return to Troubles
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btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
I do wonder if Hammond is also voicing the opinion of May or whether May would just abstain...
I think she will view Johnson as a treacherous bastard who helped engineer her downfall. There will be others who agree with her. Not a huge number, but sufficient.
As we saw yesterday.
This is going to be delicious. If there's one thing sweeter than watching a total arsehole get his comeuppance it's watching it happen over an extended period of time.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
If Johnson asked for an election in the first week of September with the intention that polling day would be early/mid October, why would seeking an extension as a condition be legitimate? If the Tories lost, then the new government would have enough time to do it themselves, which would presumably be its very first act.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
I do wonder if Hammond is also voicing the opinion of May or whether May would just abstain...
I think she will view Johnson as a treacherous bastard who helped engineer her downfall. There will be others who agree with her. Not a huge number, but sufficient.
As we saw yesterday.
This is going to be delicious. If there's one thing sweeter than watching a total arsehole get his comeuppance it's watching it happen over an extended period of time.
What will really be delicious will be the shrieks from diehard Remainers when Boris wins an overall majority
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask for. His utterly brain-dead commitment to leave on October 31st will be in shreds. That in turn means he will have achieved the remarkable feats of alienating both wings of the party, and boosting both the LibDems and the Faragists. Genius, eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
I disagree with all of that. The Brexit Party will not win any seats in Wales. Moreover, if Corbyn became PM , voters would take a different view of him - and he could expect his own 'bounce'.
If Corbyn won voters would take a different view of him and despair as the markets crash, their pensions are filleted, and our Country's security is put at risk with his anti west pro Hamas, Iran and Russia mentality, and as for anti semitism ..........
That would not happen in the first few weeks - particularly when he would be so hamstrung by being dependent on the support of several other parties.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Poor government borrowing figures June-on-June but a positive revision to previous months, meaning that borrowing in April and May was up c.10% but no more.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Thing is, does the quality match wired headphones?
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
I don't want to look (more) like a knob with those little white things sticking out my ears.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Unless it is more like Coca Cola introducing new Coke in 1985 and unintroducing it 3 months later.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
What did you pay?
£259 from ebay.
I have my Honor (Huawei) Play for about the same and very happy with it. One or two quirks, but headphone jack and excellent battery life.
I do wonder if Hammond is also voicing the opinion of May or whether May would just abstain...
I think she will view Johnson as a treacherous bastard who helped engineer her downfall. There will be others who agree with her. Not a huge number, but sufficient.
As we saw yesterday.
This is going to be delicious. If there's one thing sweeter than watching a total arsehole get his comeuppance it's watching it happen over an extended period of time.
What will really be delicious will be the shrieks from diehard Remainers when Boris wins an overall majority
But here's the difference. Remainers like myself are prepared to take this to the litmus test of public opinion. We not only believe the original campaign was flawed and fraudulent, things have dramatically changed in the last three years.
Whereas Leavers will still be harking on about the 52% they secured back in 2016 five hundred years from now.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
What did you pay?
£259 from ebay.
I have my Honor (Huawei) Play for about the same and very happy with it. One or two quirks, but headphone jack and excellent battery life.
Yes sorry I just looked it was £233.90 not £259 (which is where I think they are now).
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Unless it is more like Coca Cola introducing new Coke in 1985 and unintroducing it 3 months later.
Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.
Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".
The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.
He is not, of course, a convicted fraudster. As the judge who sentenced him said, he did not benefit financially in any way from his actions. As the law stands that means it was stupid but it was not fraud.
No. You don’t need to benefit financially to be convicted of fraud. He was dishonest not simply stupid.
Stupidity is not (yet) a criminal offence. If it were, the prisons would be full to bursting.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
Oh, I agree there might well be an election. But it will now only happen with an Article 50 extension, which Boris will have been forced to ask eh?
Nope, Boris will refuse outright any extension and Leave on October 31st even during an election campaign
For that reason,, Tory Remainers - and the other Opposition parties - will need to install Corbyn in No 10 after having passed a VNOC in Boris. Corbyn would then request the Extension.
Corbyn would also then have sealed the fate of Labour MPs in Northern and Midlands and South Wales Leave seats by blocking Brexit, a Boris led Tory Party would gain Labour Leave marginal seats and the Brexit Party could win Labour Leave seats even as far as Wigan and Pontefract and Pontypridd if Corbyn is PM only thanks to being the puppet of posh Tory diehard Remainer rebels and the LDs and SNP
I disagree with all of that. The Brexit Party will not win any seats in Wales. Moreover, if Corbyn became PM , voters would take a different view of him - and he could expect his own 'bounce'.
Oh no, the Brexit Party of course won most seats in the European Parliament elections in South Wales and of course working class voters in Labour Leave seats would see Corbyn as a traitor for siding with the LDs and posh Tory diehard Remainers to block Brexit on the scale of Ramsay MacDonald
Nonsense - Corbyn would receive plaudits from those voters for just having removed a posh Tory - Boris Johnson! To repeat what has been said many times, Labour voters are nothing like as obsessed with Brexit as you are - and the wider commentariat. It is one thing to support the Brexit party in a 37% turnout EU election widely treated frivolously even by those who bothered to vote - but quite another to do so in a 65% pus turnout General Election.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
Given Boris will refuse any further extension in October and will call a general election rather thsn accept Parliament trying to force him to extend of Parliament also blocks proroguing Parliament in late October then an autumn GE is inevitable, maybe earlier if Boris loses a VONC
He can't 'call an election'. And he won't lose a VONC if there is a non- nuclear option for loyal Conservatives like Hammond and Gauke to prevent chaos after October 31st. That is why the probabilities have suddenly changed.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
It depends what question you ask. Of course very few prefer an extension to their preferred outcome.
How many leavers prefer an extension to revoke? How many remainers prefer an extension to no deal?
The poll has 48% of East Midlands voters backing No Deal, more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for extension combined. 46% of North West voters back No Deal, more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined.
53% of Londoners and 51% of Scots meanwhile ie a narrow outright majority, back Revoke and Remain.
Other posters have suggested the poll is unreliable with samples drawn to lead to more polarised splits than across the population. i.e. as I understand it, no Manchester or Liverpool in the North West.
It was conducted in marginal seats in each region
So you know perfectly well that it is not North West voters but deliberately seek to mislead.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
What did you pay?
£259 from ebay.
I have my Honor (Huawei) Play for about the same and very happy with it. One or two quirks, but headphone jack and excellent battery life.
I switched to Android phone a few months ago...not going back to iCrap anytime soon.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
If Johnson asked for an election in the first week of September with the intention that polling day would be early/mid October, why would seeking an extension as a condition be legitimate? If the Tories lost, then the new government would have enough time to do it themselves, which would presumably be its very first act.
Parliament takes 7 working days to be formed. No Deal requires about 3 weeks of Parliamentary time for the paperwork to be sorted even if it's just Negative Statutory instruments that are nodded through.
For things to be clear cut you really need an election by the end of September - which means an announcement next Thursday or little chance of an election...
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Thing is, does the quality match wired headphones?
Bluetooth much better, Airpods are awesome, but currently I'm using these, they are awesome, really good on the noise cancelling front.
True but I'm more with HYUFD on this. If (yes, I know) the Tories are leading in the polls by, say, over 5% in early September, then there must be every chance that Johnson will propose an election (calling the Commons back from Recess isn't really a problem) and (in my view at least) he will obtain the required 2/3 majority.
What happens in the campaign itself is an entirely different matter, but I reckon the odds of an election are must be around 50%. Unless, of course, by then it's clear he's on course for a fig-leave change agreement with the EU!
But do you think Boris could win an election on a no deal platform? Which is supported at most by 30% of the electorate?
No Deal beats Revoke and Remain in the North West and East Midlands in a new poll today, even if London and Scotland prefer Revoke.
It depends what question you ask. Of course very few prefer an extension to their preferred outcome.
How many leavers prefer an extension to revoke? How many remainers prefer an extension to no deal?
The poll has 48% of East Midlands voters backing No Deal, more than the 33% for revoke and the 5% for extension combined. 46% of North West voters back No Deal, more than the 34% for revoke and the 4% for further extension combined.
53% of Londoners and 51% of Scots meanwhile ie a narrow outright majority, back Revoke and Remain.
Other posters have suggested the poll is unreliable with samples drawn to lead to more polarised splits than across the population. i.e. as I understand it, no Manchester or Liverpool in the North West.
It was conducted in marginal seats in each region
Not a general poll of all marginals in the regions. The pollsters have thrown a hula hoop at some areas where there are a few marginals together and included less marginal seats that fall inside the ring as well. So, at a high level:
EMids = Notts / Derbs coalfield NW = Cumbrian coast Scot = Lanarkshire edge of Glasgow Lon = West and SW London near Thames (boat race constituencies, if you like)
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
What did you pay?
£259 from ebay.
I have my Honor (Huawei) Play for about the same and very happy with it. One or two quirks, but headphone jack and excellent battery life.
Yes sorry I just looked it was £233.90 not £259 (which is where I think they are now).
That Brexit pound. If it carries on plummeting we will end up selling cheap UK made trash to China and the Chinese will complain that UK workers are toiling in slave conditions for only ¥8 an hour.
If Johnson asked for an election in the first week of September with the intention that polling day would be early/mid October, why would seeking an extension as a condition be legitimate? If the Tories lost, then the new government would have enough time to do it themselves, which would presumably be its very first act.
Parliament takes 7 working days to be formed. No Deal requires about 3 weeks of Parliamentary time for the paperwork to be sorted even if it's just Negative Statutory instruments that are nodded through.
For things to be clear cut you really need an election by the end of September - which means an announcement next Thursday or little chance of an election...
Surely no deal requires zero days. It just happens.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
Bluetooth headphones.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Thing is, does the quality match wired headphones?
Bluetooth much better, Airpods are awesome, but currently I'm using these, they are awesome, really good on the noise cancelling front.
You use crap headphones if you think bluetooth is much better. Bluetooth is much improved, the likes of Sennheiser and Sony make some very good ones, but the quality still doesn't match high end wired ones.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
btw it's not of particular interest to anyone else but as PB is a group of people I associate with (internetically) I think you should know that I have now successfully transitioned.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
Do you now have a *ahem* headphone jack?
I had an ancient iPhone so I have never been jackless.
Likewise, it's the main reason I'm sticking with my old one Not sure what I'll do when it breaks.
I'm liking the android and it is all down to OGH as he recommended a Xiao Mi poco f1 and it seems great.
What did you pay?
£259 from ebay.
I have my Honor (Huawei) Play for about the same and very happy with it. One or two quirks, but headphone jack and excellent battery life.
I switched to Android a few months ago...never going back to iCrap.
I switched to Huawei P20 last year after being Apple from the beginning. Love the camera, don't have headphone jack but I got the pre order wireless Bose Headphones free promotion, which was pretty amazing!
Comments
Of course the Scots should have the decision but after the disaster of the UK EU referendum I think the Scots would be wise to let things calm down
https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1152186854818689024?s=21
Remember the Brady amendment, the Withdrawal Agreement minus the backstop, got a majority in the current Commons
Georgina Hill (Ind) 5269
Kim McGuinness (Lab) 1569
So Hill got 46.7% of the available transfers and McGuiness 13.9%
Applied to the other authorities it would result in Lab 65k Ind 57km
I should have said overwhelmed and am sorry for my lack of thought
Less than 10% of voters want another extension
https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/
If he has ERG pledged support for such a plan (and it is probably the ERGs best chance of getting their long term objective), then his campaign makes a lot more sense.
(Googling this.. there's evidence of quite a lot of reports of the case referring to fraud.. some of which appear to have been altered since! My bad for absorbing some of that without grasping the nuances).
https://twitter.com/danhollandnews/status/1152190803831336960?s=21
McGuinness (Lab) 67332
Hill (Ind) 61633
https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/10/police-commissioner-hopeful-rants-empty-station-actually-tv-set-10148774/
How many leavers prefer an extension to revoke?
How many remainers prefer an extension to no deal?
Asking for an election and being told that an extension is required is just one piece of theatre that can (and probably would) be used to make Boris look out of his depth...
Then having failed to leave the EU Boris has to fight a December election after failing to achieve the only thing he promised..
First, it is the political declaration and secondly the whole point of the backstop is that it exists in the absence of a deal and any deal would therefore render it obsolete.
This really is a non-story.
53% of Londoners and 51% of Scots meanwhile ie a narrow outright majority, back Revoke and Remain.
https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-49044966
Vengeance might be very sweet
Alternatively, if Boris doesn't want to go down that route, then he's stuck with the parliament he's got and the sensible Tories now have a perfectly respectable, non-nuclear way of ensuring that the UK asks for an Article 50. All they now need to do is to follow the excellent example of Steve Baker, Boris, IDS, Jacob Rees-Mogg etc and vote with the opposition in what they see as the national interest, in this case to mandate that we ask for an extension. If Boris is unwilling to do this, that's not a big problem. Parliament is sovereign, it can change the rules as much as it likes and appoint someone else to deliver the message to Brussels.
Edit: sorry, I mean from iOS to Android
And that's on Thursday to call a General Election. Go straight for the jugular: a do-or-die Brexit mandate. Election date in early September.
He won't because like most politicians he loves the trappings of power and he thinks he's got some Churchillian destiny about him. Which will be one of a myriad reasons for his downfall.
52-48 it is though.
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As we saw yesterday.
This is going to be delicious. If there's one thing sweeter than watching a total arsehole get his comeuppance it's watching it happen over an extended period of time.
Honestly it was like when Apple ditched the CD/DVD drive from the laptops, then everybody followed suit.
Edit sorry: £233.90
Whereas Leavers will still be harking on about the 52% they secured back in 2016 five hundred years from now.
Stupidity is not (yet) a criminal offence. If it were, the prisons would be full to bursting.
For things to be clear cut you really need an election by the end of September - which means an announcement next Thursday or little chance of an election...
https://www.apple.com/uk/shop/product/MV6Y2ZM/A/powerbeats-pro-totally-wireless-earphones-black
EMids = Notts / Derbs coalfield
NW = Cumbrian coast
Scot = Lanarkshire edge of Glasgow
Lon = West and SW London near Thames (boat race constituencies, if you like)