politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 13 days to go until the Brecon and Radnorshire by election and

Accurate though isn’t it.

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Vote for the lizard not the wizard.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Though voting is occuring while May is still PM.

We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.

The tories need every excuse possible to cover the result of this by-election.

And I don't blame them as there was little the party could do - they could hardly replace Chris Davies as candidate so it's best to let him lose, have excuses planned and prep a different candidate ready for the next election.

(FPT)

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I am shocked that publicity shy Paddy Power are involved in a stunt like this.

I see what you mean...
https://twitter.com/htafc/status/1151585633036619778

Paddy power missed a trick there personally I would have gone for a green sash with white lettering...

But that would have gone against their understated marketing tradition...

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Though voting is occuring while May is still PM.

We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.

Aha! Excuses in early.

Tellers - what percentage, approximately, of votes would you expect to be posted by early next week?

This looks less like vandalism and more like public information.

Morning all

Disappointing to read the nonsense that Brecon & Radnor has been a Conservative seat for ever.

No it hasn't.

Labour won the seat in the 1939 by election and held it until 1979 when the Conservatives won it for the first time since gaining it from Labour in 1931.

In 1979 the Conservatives took the seat and held it until Richard Livsey won the 1985 by-election beating Labour by 559 votes with the Conservatives back in third. Livsey held by 56 in 1987 and lost to the Conservatives in 1992 by 130.

In 1997 the anti-Conservative tide saw Livsey back by 5000 but that was the largest LD majority as Livsey's successor, Roger Williams, scraped home by 751 in 2001 and built up a majority of just under 4000 in 2010.

The 2015 anti-Lib Dem tide saw Chris Davies win by 5000 and he stretched that to 8000 in 2017. The majority is comparable to the one overturned by Livsey in 1985.

The Conservatives have always enjoyed a strong presence in B&R - the main change was the move of the anti-Conservative vote from Labour to Lib Dem after 1997 (with some return since 2015).

Pro_Rata said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Though voting is occuring while May is still PM.

We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.

Aha! Excuses in early.

Tellers - what percentage, approximately, of votes would you expect to be posted by early next week?

10,000 PVs about 20% of electorate probably 6 to 7 thousand at a guess.

stodge said:

Morning all

Disappointing to read the nonsense that Brecon & Radnor has been a Conservative seat for ever.

No it hasn't.

Labour won the seat in the 1939 by election and held it until 1979 when the Conservatives won it for the first time since gaining it from Labour in 1931.

In 1979 the Conservatives took the seat and held it until Richard Livsey won the 1985 by-election beating Labour by 559 votes with the Conservatives back in third. Livsey held by 56 in 1987 and lost to the Conservatives in 1992 by 130.

In 1997 the anti-Conservative tide saw Livsey back by 5000 but that was the largest LD majority as Livsey's successor, Roger Williams, scraped home by 751 in 2001 and built up a majority of just under 4000 in 2010.

The 2015 anti-Lib Dem tide saw Chris Davies win by 5000 and he stretched that to 8000 in 2017. The majority is comparable to the one overturned by Livsey in 1985.

The Conservatives have always enjoyed a strong presence in B&R - the main change was the move of the anti-Conservative vote from Labour to Lib Dem after 1997 (with some return since 2015).

In the nineteenth century it was of course solidly liberal. Indeed one of the four seats - Radnor Boroughs - was for a time held by Liberal leader Spencer Cavendish, Marquess of Harrington.

ydoethur said:

I've always thought the Tories would hold here.

I still think they have a much better chance than most people realise, but after last night I'm a good deal less certain than I was.

Unfortunately vandalism of posters is currently a favoured modus operandi of Labour in particular. At least this one doesn't call for the murder of the candidate as one in Gloucester did.

I sometimes think it's because they have nothing else to do due to the weakness of their policy offering. But it may just be because a very large number of Corbyn's supporters are vile human beings.

Aren't Conservative-voting hill farmers likely to be bankrupted by Boris's Brexit policy? That might have concentrated their minds a bit. It was after canvassing here that Jeremy Hunt started banging on about EU lamb tariffs.

ydoethur said:

I've always thought the Tories would hold here.

I still think they have a much better chance than most people realise, but after last night I'm a good deal less certain than I was.

Unfortunately vandalism of posters is currently a favoured modus operandi of Labour in particular. At least this one doesn't call for the murder of the candidate as one in Gloucester did.

I sometimes think it's because they have nothing else to do due to the weakness of their policy offering. But it may just be because a very large number of Corbyn's supporters are vile human beings.

Whilst the Tories probably have a better chance than the odds, the don’t have a great chance - surely it is not too much to ask that the convicted MP not be allowed to stand again.

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Though voting is occuring while May is still PM.

We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.

It will be interesting to see what happens. There are reasons Boris might not get a very big polling bounce akin to historic comparisons you point to.

Brexit. All our politics today is through prism of brexit. If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

he’s the biggest thing to celebrity politician we have had for very long time, meaning he’s hardly a fresh face or unknown quantity. If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, but probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, not so I argue with Boris, just reading this site alone he has already been quantified, weigh measured and for many found wanting, so once in job will instantly start meeting their expectations.

On the other hand, if there is no bounce at all it is not end of the world. Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen. Blair got a baby Leo bounce, to show what pathetic fluff bounces are.

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

Which jobs do you know where you can fiddle your expenses, get found guilty in court and keep your job? Why are we so deferential to power in this country? He behaved in a way that gets you sacked, he got sacked, move on dont ask for your job back.

philiph said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Time to automatically bar criminals, adulterers, and lovers of Hawaiian pizzas from being MPs.

Do you differentiate between those who have committed crime and served a punishment before becoming the elected representative (who should disclose past convictions to the electorate prior to the election) and those who commit a crime and are punished while they are the elected representative?

I really don't see why convicted criminals who have served the punishment shouldn't be eligible to be MPs. It is the choice of the electorate to either vote for them or not.

Spent convictions are fine, those who commit a crime that relate to being an MP then an automatic ban from elected office for life

ydoethur said:

In the nineteenth century it was of course solidly liberal. Indeed one of the four seats - Radnor Boroughs - was for a time held by Liberal leader Spencer Cavendish, Marquess of Harrington.

In its current incarnation it has been in existence since 1918 and was held by the Liberals until the Conservatives won it in 1924. The 1929 result must be one of the closest three-corner battles there has ever been. The third place Liberal finished just 369 votes behind the winning Labour candidate.

After that, the Liberals disappeared and the National Government held the seat in 1931 and 1935 but in 1939 the MP was kicked up to the Lords and Labour won the by-election which was held on August 1st 1939.

It was the last peacetime by-election.

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

Who was worse: Davies or Fiona? For a lawyer, Fiona for perverting the course of justice. For a party activist, it depends on the colour of rosette.

For ordinary voters who did not follow the cases in detail, a speeding ticket is almost certainly trumped by fraud and forgery.

Nemtynakht said:

X

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

I understand the provision of the Recall act, and agree that Onasanya’s crime included an larger element of conspiracy. I just don’t think MPs should be allowed to re- stand in such circumstances. I think the Tories have made a mistake in such a tight electoral situation with an ineffective majority to allow your opponents to portray your candidate as the criminal candidate is completely wrong headed. It’s almost as if May wanted to screw Boris before he got in.

I guess the argument would be that criminality shouldn't be an impediment to being a representative. If you're saying no one can be rehabilitated / engage in the political sphere that's an issue. I also guess he wants a chance to litigate his moral innocence; from my understanding he is arguing he did an illegal thing, but that illegal thing was basically just messing up some paperwork by accident. You can accept that or not, but I guess he and his party at least feel he deserves the benefit of the doubt on that?

Nemtynakht said:

X

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

I understand the provision of the Recall act, and agree that Onasanya’s crime included an larger element of conspiracy. I just don’t think MPs should be allowed to re- stand in such circumstances. I think the Tories have made a mistake in such a tight electoral situation with an ineffective majority to allow your opponents to portray your candidate as the criminal candidate is completely wrong headed. It’s almost as if May wanted to screw Boris before he got in.

So you have that argument with the good people of Brecon and Radnorshire and if they agree they won't vote for him.

I much prefer allowing the voters to decide then having people being automatically disbarred. You can see how the latter can be abused by the way the Opposition leader in Russia was treated.

Nemtynakht said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Time to automatically bar criminals, adulterers, and lovers of Hawaiian pizzas from being MPs.

Isn’t adultery difficult to prove. Revelations about John Major being one of the biggest shocks I’ve had in politics!

In hindsight, the stories about John Major having a big'un must have come from somewhere.

I see they've been fucking about with Twitter again. Can someone tell Jack that changing their interface every 5 minutes isn't going to improve their business model?

Still, at least his attempts to make public discourse healthier and more civil seem to be having an effect.

https://twitter.com/jack/status/1120825823647420416?s=20

El_Capitano said:

From the Politico article linked in the last thread, I note that it defines the East Midlands as "the marginals of Mansfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Ashfield, North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield".

As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)

Are there any marginals in the southern area of the east midlands though ?
Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)

TheScreamingEagles said:

Put it this way if Chris Davies was on universal credit and committed this fraud against the DWP he’d have been sanctioned for years.

One rule for the rich ruling classes and another rule for struggling working class plebs.

He will face his day of Brecon-ing!

Political opponents interfering with poster boards? Lord, what's the world coming to?

I remember one story from probably a couple of decades ago about someone who was so keen to remove a securely fixed Lib Dem poster board, that they ended up demolishing the garden wall to do it!

DecrepitJohnL said:

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

Who was worse: Davies or Fiona? For a lawyer, Fiona for perverting the course of justice. For a party activist, it depends on the colour of rosette.

For ordinary voters who did not follow the cases in detail, a speeding ticket is almost certainly trumped by fraud and forgery.

She wasn't prosecuted for that. She was prosecuted for forging a document (ironically de facto the same offence Davis committed) trying to get an innocent person into trouble to save her own skin, and repeatedly lying to the police and the courts.

Pulpstar said:

El_Capitano said:

From the Politico article linked in the last thread, I note that it defines the East Midlands as "the marginals of Mansfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley, Ashfield, North East Derbyshire and Chesterfield".

As an exiled Rutlander, I'm getting a bit exasperated with people redefining the East Midlands - which are delightful in so many places - to be purely the fairly grim belt from Castle Donington up to Chesterfield. (Sorry @NickPalmer.)

Are there any marginals in the southern area of the east midlands though ?
Chesterfield is safish Labour (Though could be vulnerable to the Lib Dems in extremis)

Didn't Chesterfield use to be LibDem in the Blair years?

OblitusSumMe said:

Nemtynakht said:

X

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

I understand the provision of the Recall act, and agree that Onasanya’s crime included an larger element of conspiracy. I just don’t think MPs should be allowed to re- stand in such circumstances. I think the Tories have made a mistake in such a tight electoral situation with an ineffective majority to allow your opponents to portray your candidate as the criminal candidate is completely wrong headed. It’s almost as if May wanted to screw Boris before he got in.

So you have that argument with the good people of Brecon and Radnorshire and if they agree they won't vote for him.

I much prefer allowing the voters to decide then having people being automatically disbarred. You can see how the latter can be abused by the way the Opposition leader in Russia was treated.

I would be more worried if we lived somewhere else but I see your point. However the Tories could have told him he couldn’t stand again as a Tory. Perhaps they are expecting to lose anyway so want to show loyalty for their remaining MPs.

Looking at the votes I expect the Brexit Party to split the vote on the right and expect something like.

Lib Dem’s 13500
Brexit 8000
Tories 4000
Labour 1000
Plaid 1000
UKIP 250

I don’t know the seat well and don’t really understand the appeal of the Brexit Party so could be getting that wrong. The LIbdems are prime position to bring together opposition parties and are strong in local government in the area.

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

stodge said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t agree with the stickering and grafitti on their offices but the sign boards being labelled crook is surely a necessity in a circumstance like this. I know they have argued that Davies personally didn’t benefit from the fraud, but making up invoices to suit things you can claim should bar anyone from standing as an MP on a common sense basis!

Under the Recall Act Davies's offence is deemed comparable to Fiona Onasanya's in Peterborough though many would argue there are several orders of magnitude difference.

His offence triggered a recall petition which is why we have the by-election.

Who was worse: Davies or Fiona? For a lawyer, Fiona for perverting the course of justice. For a party activist, it depends on the colour of rosette.

For ordinary voters who did not follow the cases in detail, a speeding ticket is almost certainly trumped by fraud and forgery.

She wasn't prosecuted for that. She was prosecuted for forging a document (ironically de facto the same offence Davis committed) trying to get an innocent person into trouble to save her own skin, and repeatedly lying to the police and the courts.

Actually, we don't know which justice Fiona Onasanya was found guilty of perverting. The judge said he wasn't sure about the speeding points, but he was sure about trying to help her brother get away with it.

Reselecting Chris Davies is going to look utterly idiotic a couple of Friday mornings from now.

Whatever feelings there were among local members of loyalty and that he'd been hard done by will absolutely not get across in a campaign where everyone else just has to prefix his name with "convicted fraudster".

The evidence of his recall ballot (and Onasanya's) is that enough voters are willing to give "criminal MPs" a good hard kicking, whatever the mitigation.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1152117004536569856

Rebel Alliance? Philip Hammond as Obi Wan Kenobi? Yvette Cooper as Princess Leia? Rory Stewart as Luke Skywalker? Boris Johnson as Jabba the Hutt!

rottenborough said:

Zephyr said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Though voting is occuring while May is still PM.

We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.

It will be interesting to see what happens. There are reasons Boris might not get a very big polling bounce akin to historic comparisons you point to.

Brexit. All our politics today is through prism of brexit. If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

he’s the biggest thing to celebrity politician we have had for very long time, meaning he’s hardly a fresh face or unknown quantity. If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, but probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, not so I argue with Boris, just reading this site alone he has already been quantified, weigh measured and for many found wanting, so once in job will instantly start meeting their expectations.

On the other hand, if there is no bounce at all it is not end of the world. Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen. Blair got a baby Leo bounce, to show what pathetic fluff bounces are.

Be interesting to see what happens if Boris flatlines, or worse, in the polls. I rather suspect a Johnson cult is developing across the Tory party and, like Labour, ex-kipper activists and ERG nutters will protect their hero at all costs.

Personally I find Boris is overly demonised and as such basic competence may seem like amazing talent given how he is being described

Zephyr said:

On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.

ydoethur said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t know the seat well ... The LIbdems are prime position to bring together opposition parties

You're right, you really don't know the seat well.

Well I’ve put my prediction out there - what is yours?

Chris said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1152117004536569856

Rebel Alliance? Philip Hammond as Obi Wan Kenobi? Yvette Cooper as Princess Leia? Rory Stewart as Luke Skywalker? Boris Johnson as Jabba the Hutt!

Tom Watson as chewbacca. Dominic Grieve as Admiral Akbar. Phillip Lee as Wedge Antilles.

kjh said:

Thank you everyone for the nice comments last night re the deer. Contrary to rumours you're nice bunch really.

With hindsight, we really are.

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:

On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.

No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Put it this way if Chris Davies was on universal credit and committed this fraud against the DWP he’d have been sanctioned for years.

One rule for the rich ruling classes and another rule for struggling working class plebs.

Yet the crime wasn't significant enough for the Tory party to take a stand and withdraw the whip...

Hypocrites.

So you are a happy to be a member of a party filled with hypocrites willing to support members convicted of fraud?

I’m trying to change the party for the better.

Trying to do it from the inside first.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Put it this way if Chris Davies was on universal credit and committed this fraud against the DWP he’d have been sanctioned for years.

One rule for the rich ruling classes and another rule for struggling working class plebs.

He will face his day of Brecon-ing!

Forget about trains, you should be editing a national newspaper.

The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:

On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.

No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?

Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.

There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

eek said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Put it this way if Chris Davies was on universal credit and committed this fraud against the DWP he’d have been sanctioned for years.

One rule for the rich ruling classes and another rule for struggling working class plebs.

Yet the crime wasn't significant enough for the Tory party to take a stand and withdraw the whip...

Hypocrites.

So you are a happy to be a member of a party filled with hypocrites willing to support members convicted of fraud?

I’m trying to change the party for the better.

Trying to do it from the inside first.

What do you think when you hear moderate Labour members say the same about their party?

Pro_Rata said:

Apologies if this was covered downthread, I couldn't re-find who linked.

Interesting study, but needs reading to the bottom as the lists of constituencies in the marginal clusters identified are absolutely key to interpretation, e.g. "E.Mids" figures refer to support across Chesterfield, Mansfield, NEDerbs, Ashfield, Bolsover, Broxtowe, Amber Valley:

https://www.politico.eu/article/poll-uk-brexit-divide-deepens-as-voters-move-to-the-extremes/

Here's the link again. The area billed as North West is even less representative of the region as as a whole: Morecambe, Barrow, Workington, Copeland, Carlisle. I'm sure Cyclefree would not be displeased that it is not just the typical Manchester-Liverpool area people more readily think of as NW, but still, to hide it in the last line is something of a misdirection.

Zephyr said:

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:

On topic, wrecking the hard work of your opponents activists cannot be within the spirit of the game. It’s wrong to do it.

But even in a constituency like that, I would question if here in 21st century posters and poster boards really make much difference? Surely carefully targeted social media messages telling that particular voter exactly what they want to hear will have much greater impact and is far better use of time and money these days?

What both sides need is a catchy chant like “send him back, send him back” or “send him down, send him down.”

Surely real Vandalism is brexit?

There will be very large numbers in that constituency not on social media, or even possessed of decent internet.

No email. No smart phone? When you say large numbers, do you have evidence to back those claims up?

In fact you Are selling it as Arcadian paradise. Can I buy second home there without someone burning it down?

Rural connectivity in mid-Wales is epically shit. Broadband in places is closer to dial-up speeds. A friend of mine near Llandeglau used to send emails three times in the hope one of them would get through.

And in places people are too poor to have Internet (Ystradgynlais again).

The FWA stopped burning down second homes some time ago. Help yourself, but be warned it takes ages to get there.

There’s a TV advert where sheep farmers in Mongolian hills have a smart phone and using it to run their business...

Wales isn't in Mongolia.

Nemtynakht said:

rottenborough said:

Zephyr said:

Philip_Thompson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Bollocks to Boris?

But he’s going to win the Tories a landslide/majority and this seat should be in the bag.

Though voting is occuring while May is still PM.

We all know don't we that bounces occur after the PM enters Downing Street which is too late for postal ballots in this by election. Brown's bounce only occured after he became PM despite the fact that over a month had passed since nominations closed with him as the only candidate.

It will be interesting to see what happens. There are reasons Boris might not get a very big polling bounce akin to historic comparisons you point to.

Brexit. All our politics today is through prism of brexit. If you are die hard Remainer why would you warm to him and give him a bounce, maybe a bounce at expense of BP alone?

he’s the biggest thing to celebrity politician we have had for very long time, meaning he’s hardly a fresh face or unknown quantity. If you were to ask people about Gordon brown prime minister today they would say what an absolute load of crap, but probably wouldn’t have on the day he became prime minister, not so I argue with Boris, just reading this site alone he has already been quantified, weigh measured and for many found wanting, so once in job will instantly start meeting their expectations.

On the other hand, if there is no bounce at all it is not end of the world. Thatcher was stronger five years after becoming PM than the day she touched hands with the queen. Blair got a baby Leo bounce, to show what pathetic fluff bounces are.

Be interesting to see what happens if Boris flatlines, or worse, in the polls. I rather suspect a Johnson cult is developing across the Tory party and, like Labour, ex-kipper activists and ERG nutters will protect their hero at all costs.

Personally I find Boris is overly demonised and as such basic competence may seem like amazing talent given how he is being described

That is an excellent point Nemty, the power of expectations management.

Rather like people going so big on the horrors of no deal, hard Brexit becomes a warm and cuddly escape route.

ydoethur said:

Nemtynakht said:

ydoethur said:

Nemtynakht said:

I don’t know the seat well ... The LIbdems are prime position to bring together opposition parties

You're right, you really don't know the seat well.

Well I’ve put my prediction out there - what is yours?

Plaid are not standing. Labour will do poorly. So will the Brexit party. They are effectively fishing in the same pool of voters in Brecon, Ystradgynlais and Rhayader.

This is a straight two-way fight. The Tory candidate lives in the seat. The Liberal Democrat does not, and is a Gog, born in Wrexham. That really will matter here. For a start, it means no votes from Plaid Cymru whatever the leadership advises.

If the Liberal Democrats win by more than a thousand votes, they've done superbly well and we should start taking them seriously as the next Opposition. I think there will be about 700 votes in it either way.

But at the moment, who knows?

Well electoral calculus has it close but to Brexit Party

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/seatdetails.py?seat=Brecon and Radnorshire

Are you seriously suggesting that on the doorstop the Tories are saying “we know he is a convicted fraudster, but he’s our convicted fraudster”. I’d be telling them to shove it if he lived in the seat or not.

AlastairMeeks said:

The Conservatives' entire message for this by-election is "better a convict than a Remainer". It will be instructive how effective that message is.

They couldn't fine Brexiteer candidate who wasn't a criminal in the whole of Wales?

https://twitter.com/GeorginaEWright/status/1152123985947254784

JBriskinindyref2 said:

Breaking (on sky ticker) - Merkel says Irish Backstop can be "overwritten" if there's a new solution

Yes just saw that . But the problem is Johnson and Hunt have trashed the backstop limiting a compromise there.

The EU won’t remove the backstop , she’s talking about the political declaration developing a relationship that removes the need for it .

Zephyr said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Put it this way if Chris Davies was on universal credit and committed this fraud against the DWP he’d have been sanctioned for years.

One rule for the rich ruling classes and another rule for struggling working class plebs.

He will face his day of Brecon-ing!

Forget about trains, you should be editing a national newspaper.

It was The Sunil wot won it!