politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the controversial Panorama report on LAB and an

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Taking advice from 'Sir' John Major on Europe is like listening to Dr Harold Shipman lecture us all on the importance of Doctor-Patient welfare.

Threatening more court cases though reminds me of Remain before Article 50 was triggered. Looks like they're all out of options, the devious snakes.

As I recall the A50 litigation was successful.

If Parliament is Prorogued, I think the survival of the PM, and of No Deal could be measured in nanoseconds.

The very basis of the reason A50 litigation was successful is why it might not be against prorogation.

The A50 litigation said that because Article 50's invocation changed the law [because Britain would leave after 2 years[ it needed Parliament to approve it. Parliament already has approved it, thus it has approved what happens at the end of A50 [leaving without a deal] which was the reason why Miller won.

If Parliament is prorogued that won't change the law, the law will remain what it was when it was prorogued. Which is what MPs have already voted for.

First you and your fellow Brexit freedom-fighters claim 'Parliament is Sovereign', we want the HoC to determine our destiny. Now Parliament might do something you don't want it to do, you demand a Sovereign Exectutive.

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

eek said:

Is it remain dominated? You can't call the ERG MPs remain and they are one reason why we haven't left?

And why should any opposition MP vote for leave when the party of Government doesn't do so...

ERG not voting to pass a Withdrawal Agreement were de facto voting for a No Deal Brexit. As was anybody else voting against the Withdrawal Agreement.

There is one agreement, the EU has been clear. It was take it or leave it, and the House of Commons decided to leave it. So now we leave without an agreement.

No - my MP definitely wasn't voting for No Deal... I've accused her of such to her face afterwards and she was rather upset as I spelled out the reasoning...

The letter I got afterwards is a sight to behold...

If she voted against the only Deal she voted to at least keep No Deal on the table. If it happens it will be in no small part because she rejected the Deal.

Yep - I know that. She was, however, "voting for her (vocal) constituents viewpoint"...

Were it not for Boris I would spend the next election winding her up however........

WhisperingOracle said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

GIN1138 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

I agree with this string of thought.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1147493527061966848

It would be much better if we can get Brexit done following a general election than the Prorogation of Parliament.

We've already had two General Elections, a European Election and a referendum on the issue. No more extra votes for Remain - they've had their chances.

Nope we've had a Referendum that came up 52:48 and a general election where May failed to get the majority she needed to deal with the loony wing of the Tory party.

And that lack of majority needs to be sorted as currently Parliament is as divided as the country is....

Not just that, but there's an even smaller proportion for no-deal in the country than in parliament. A cross-analysis of various polls, for more than a year, reveals a hardcore of no more than around 27-30 % actively for no-deal, once it's understood that this doesn't mean continuity.

Are Viceroy of Orange and others arguing for taking the most cataclysmic decision in this country since 1940 on the basis of 30 % support ?

Yes

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

RobD said:

eek said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Foxy said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

GIN1138 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

I agree with this string of thought.

https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1147493527061966848

It would be much better if we can get Brexit done following a general election than the Prorogation of Parliament.

We've already had two General Elections, a European Election and a referendum on the issue. No more extra votes for Remain - they've had their chances.

In each of those elections "No Dealers" lost the vote.

Leave won.

The Remain-dominated House of Commons had 3 chances to pass a Withdrawal Agreement but they didn't. So now we leave without a deal. Simple.

Is it remain dominated? You can't call the ERG MPs remain and they are one reason why we haven't left?

And why should any opposition MP vote for leave when the party of Government doesn't do so...

Isn’t it 2/3 Remain-voting MPs?

How many Tory MPs are actively remain?
How many Tory MPs are ERG lunatics?

One-third and maybe one-tenth?

Wait, if by actively remain you mean seeking to overturn, probably about one-twentieth.

Actively remain means not voting for May's Deal so it's probably 5 MPs of whom 4 have left the party.
The ERG has 62 members (wikipedia via Google)

Probably being generous with the lunatic label there.

ERG and the lunatic label sadly go rather well together...

The two terms are synonymous.

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Taking advice from 'Sir' John Major on Europe is like listening to Dr Harold Shipman lecture us all on the importance of Doctor-Patient welfare.

Threatening more court cases though reminds me of Remain before Article 50 was triggered. Looks like they're all out of options, the devious snakes.

As I recall the A50 litigation was successful.

If Parliament is Prorogued, I think the survival of the PM, and of No Deal could be measured in nanoseconds.

The very basis of the reason A50 litigation was successful is why it might not be against prorogation.

The A50 litigation said that because Article 50's invocation changed the law [because Britain would leave after 2 years[ it needed Parliament to approve it. Parliament already has approved it, thus it has approved what happens at the end of A50 [leaving without a deal] which was the reason why Miller won.

If Parliament is prorogued that won't change the law, the law will remain what it was when it was prorogued. Which is what MPs have already voted for.

First you and your fellow Brexit freedom-fighters claim 'Parliament is Sovereign', we want the HoC to determine our destiny. Now Parliament might do something you don't want it to do, you demand a Sovereign Exectutive.

No you're wrong. I don't want this current generation of MPs to be sovereign, I want the voters at the ballot box to be sovereign. I want voters to take control.

Leaving the EU without a backstop does that. MPs can then be held to account because they can change our laws accordingly.

If our current generation of MPs frustrates Brexit then that is them rejecting the voters taking control.

ReggieCide said:

eek said:

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:

ReggieCide said:

IanB2 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Taking advice from 'Sir' John Major on Europe is like listening to Dr Harold Shipman lecture us all on the importance of Doctor-Patient welfare.

Threatening more court cases though reminds me of Remain before Article 50 was triggered. Looks like they're all out of options, the devious snakes.

The court case that the government lost that gave parliament a vote on the leaving deal is a relevant precedent.

Did that work out well then?

So far, so good.

We really should not feed the trolls, it’s satisfying at the time but will never change minds. There is an interesting pattern developing on here which I think will develop without our help. For once the stars have aligned in a unique constellation that I have never witnessed before. It has its own momentum, I don’t know where it’s going to end but after 44 years of political involvement I am enjoying the rollercoaster. I’m no longer there to put boots on the street but I can join phone banks and help financially.

Is it happening in the wider world? I don’t know but the general public are pissed off with all politicians and it will take superior skills to get any message across.

My concern would be that it's not superior skills its just targeting and management.

I suspect shifting Tory voters to the extremes (see my poorly created pictures earlier) will be the entire focus of the next election and I really do pity those people who don't understand what's about to happen,,

Oh far sighted one - your wisdom is wondrous to behold. How cowed we poor mortals are in your presence.

It's possible I'm wrong and what's left of the tory votes is a percentage that votes for a monkey wearing a blue rosette. I suspect that isn't going to be the case and there is a fair percentage of the 20% left who could still shift elsewhere.

The great unknown is how Labour works out - but I expect outside close run Brexit target seats Boris won't be winning Labour seats if the MP talks leave and the thing they offer is a second referendum that Leave will "easily win" ...

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Taking advice from 'Sir' John Major on Europe is like listening to Dr Harold Shipman lecture us all on the importance of Doctor-Patient welfare.

Threatening more court cases though reminds me of Remain before Article 50 was triggered. Looks like they're all out of options, the devious snakes.

As I recall the A50 litigation was successful.

If Parliament is Prorogued, I think the survival of the PM, and of No Deal could be measured in nanoseconds.

The very basis of the reason A50 litigation was successful is why it might not be against prorogation.

The A50 litigation said that because Article 50's invocation changed the law [because Britain would leave after 2 years[ it needed Parliament to approve it. Parliament already has approved it, thus it has approved what happens at the end of A50 [leaving without a deal] which was the reason why Miller won.

If Parliament is prorogued that won't change the law, the law will remain what it was when it was prorogued. Which is what MPs have already voted for.

First you and your fellow Brexit freedom-fighters claim 'Parliament is Sovereign', we want the HoC to determine our destiny. Now Parliament might do something you don't want it to do, you demand a Sovereign Exectutive.

No you're wrong. I don't want this current generation of MPs to be sovereign, I want the voters at the ballot box to be sovereign. I want voters to take control.

Leaving the EU without a backstop does that. MPs can then be held to account because they can change our laws accordingly.

If our current generation of MPs frustrates Brexit then that is them rejecting the voters taking control.

So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

40% is impossible (unless there is a Lib Dem / Green pact and even then I reckon it's nearer 30-33%).

I also wonder how many voters in the Lib Dem's 23% would then look at their constituency (as I have) and decided that the only option is to hold their nose and vote Labour...

SirBenjamin said:

DavidL said:

CatMan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whatever it reveals, tonight’s Panorama will change absolutely nothing inside Labour. It will continue to be institutionally anti-Semitic for as long as the far left is in control. The only thing you can do to make a difference is not vote Labour. But doing that means you let in Johnson, who also stands shoulder to shoulder with racists, is in the pocket of Donald Trump and would happily sell the country down the river if it served his purposes. In whichever direction you look the UK's future is bleak and getting bleaker. Those who able to leave are mad to stay!

If only we had PR

I've always been a fan of FPTP and the more decisive governance it provides but as our politics becomes ever more fragmented it gets harder to defend. As our major parties show less and less interest in being broad churches containing a range of views within it becomes even more difficult.

'more decisive government' or, in other words, malapportionment, is an argument /against/ thr current system, not one in favour.

I am in favour of the system, but because it provides for geography-based constituent representation, not for its disproportionality. For me an ideal result is when FPTP happens to deliver a proportional outcome.

The most ludicrous situation of all is when electoral reformers cite the drawbacks of coalitions and/or indecisive election results as an argument for 'PR', mind. The very scenarios that become far more likely under PR...

Nobody does that.
With STV you can have geography-based constituencies and pretty good proportionality.

I have just caught up with the previous thread. I think our Thomo raises valid points this afternoon. Someone who agreed with the assessment may have leaked it to publicise it, the timing of the resignation may be to damage Boris.

But you could also be wrong Thompson, it could have come from Russian/Wikileaks, to smail via Brexit Party, even Trumps team. I am confident we will never know, leak enquiry’s seldom succeed in getting the perpetrators.

Stitch up or not, that Boris and Brexit itself has been damaged by this Kimgate affair is beyond question.

eek said:

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

40% is impossible (unless there is a Lib Dem / Green pact and even then I reckon it's nearer 30-33%).

Labour need to be on board too, with or without Corbyn- hopefully without, otherwise its Boris and Nige on a home-run.

Zephyr said:

I have just caught up with the previous thread. I think our Thomo raises valid points this afternoon. Someone who agreed with the assessment may have leaked it to publicise it, the timing of the resignation may be to damage Boris.

But you could also be wrong Thompson, it could have come from Russian/Wikileaks, to smail via Brexit Party, even Trumps team. I am confident we will never know, leak enquiry’s seldom succeed in getting the perpetrators.

Stitch up or not, that Boris and Brexit itself has been damaged by this Kimgate affair is beyond question.

I'm not sure - Boris has been damaged but it's the lack of support that damages him not the leak itself and that couldn't have been assumed.

As for Brexit it only confirms that leaving the EU for the US isn't the greatest plan... By itself it doesn't change anything..

Mexicanpete said:

So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Taking advice from 'Sir' John Major on Europe is like listening to Dr Harold Shipman lecture us all on the importance of Doctor-Patient welfare.

Threatening more court cases though reminds me of Remain before Article 50 was triggered. Looks like they're all out of options, the devious snakes.

As I recall the A50 litigation was successful.

If Parliament is Prorogued, I think the survival of the PM, and of No Deal could be measured in nanoseconds.

The very basis of the reason A50 litigation was successful is why it might not be against prorogation.

The A50 litigation said that because Article 50's invocation changed the law [because Britain would leave after 2 years[ it needed Parliament to approve it. Parliament already has approved it, thus it has approved what happens at the end of A50 [leaving without a deal] which was the reason why Miller won.

If Parliament is prorogued that won't change the law, the law will remain what it was when it was prorogued. Which is what MPs have already voted for.

First you and your fellow Brexit freedom-fighters claim 'Parliament is Sovereign', we want the HoC to determine our destiny. Now Parliament might do something you don't want it to do, you demand a Sovereign Exectutive.

No you're wrong. I don't want this current generation of MPs to be sovereign, I want the voters at the ballot box to be sovereign. I want voters to take control.

Leaving the EU without a backstop does that. MPs can then be held to account because they can change our laws accordingly.

If our current generation of MPs frustrates Brexit then that is them rejecting the voters taking control.

But MPs can be held to account without leaving. and if you think leaving with No Deal is a guarantee for No backstop I suspect it will be back in place by February regardless...

No, if we are within the EU then MPs can't be held to account for laws that we can't change unilaterally which is a lot of laws under the EU.

As for no backstop I disagree and I would bitterly oppose it being in place.

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.

Son-of- Corbyn could do an awful lot of damage to your Nirvana in 5 years, including of course re-joining the EU without a referendum.

Mexicanpete said:

eek said:

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

40% is impossible (unless there is a Lib Dem / Green pact and even then I reckon it's nearer 30-33%).

Labour need to be on board too, with or without Corbyn- hopefully without, otherwise its Boris and Nige on a home-run.

Labour with a second referendum are safe in fair few leave seats - see my comment earlier - you've always voted Labour, why change as we are only offering a second referendum. Surely Leave will win that second referendum so what's the issue, prove the point. It may seem insane but Labour only want Brexit votes they don't need core Tory votes there..

SouthamObserver said:

Whatever it reveals, tonight’s Panorama will change absolutely nothing inside Labour. It will continue to be institutionally anti-Semitic for as long as the far left is in control. The only thing you can do to make a difference is not vote Labour. But doing that means you let in Johnson, who also stands shoulder to shoulder with racists, is in the pocket of Donald Trump and would happily sell the country down the river if it served his purposes. In whichever direction you look the UK's future is bleak and getting bleaker. Those who able to leave are mad to stay!

The first step in tackling any form of institutional equalities breach is recognising that it exists. The evidence so far is that Labour doesn't.

Not voting for Corbyn won't necessarily let in Boris if there continues to be a near four-way split (or if one of those other parties starts to pull clear of Con/Lab).

Philip_Thompson said:

eek said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Foxy said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Taking advice from 'Sir' John Major on Europe is like listening to Dr Harold Shipman lecture us all on the importance of Doctor-Patient welfare.

Threatening more court cases though reminds me of Remain before Article 50 was triggered. Looks like they're all out of options, the devious snakes.

As I recall the A50 litigation was successful.

If Parliament is Prorogued, I think the survival of the PM, and of No Deal could be measured in nanoseconds.

The very basis of the reason A50 litigation was successful is why it might not be against prorogation.

The A50 litigation said that because Article 50's invocation changed the law [because Britain would leave after 2 years[ it needed Parliament to approve it. Parliament already has approved it, thus it has approved what happens at the end of A50 [leaving without a deal] which was the reason why Miller won.

If Parliament is prorogued that won't change the law, the law will remain what it was when it was prorogued. Which is what MPs have already voted for.

First you and your fellow Brexit freedom-fighters claim 'Parliament is Sovereign', we want the HoC to determine our destiny. Now Parliament might do something you don't want it to do, you demand a Sovereign Exectutive.

No you're wrong. I don't want this current generation of MPs to be sovereign, I want the voters at the ballot box to be sovereign. I want voters to take control.

Leaving the EU without a backstop does that. MPs can then be held to account because they can change our laws accordingly.

If our current generation of MPs frustrates Brexit then that is them rejecting the voters taking control.

But MPs can be held to account without leaving. and if you think leaving with No Deal is a guarantee for No backstop I suspect it will be back in place by February regardless...

No, if we are within the EU then MPs can't be held to account for laws that we can't change unilaterally which is a lot of laws under the EU.

As for no backstop I disagree and I would bitterly oppose it being in place.

Let's see how things play out with No Deal - I have reason to believe we will be in for a lot of nasty surprises...

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whatever it reveals, tonight’s Panorama will change absolutely nothing inside Labour. It will continue to be institutionally anti-Semitic for as long as the far left is in control. The only thing you can do to make a difference is not vote Labour. But doing that means you let in Johnson, who also stands shoulder to shoulder with racists, is in the pocket of Donald Trump and would happily sell the country down the river if it served his purposes. In whichever direction you look the UK's future is bleak and getting bleaker. Those who able to leave are mad to stay!

The first step in tackling any form of institutional equalities breach is recognising that it exists. The evidence so far is that Labour doesn't.

Not voting for Corbyn won't necessarily let in Boris if there continues to be a near four-way split (or if one of those other parties starts to pull clear of Con/Lab).

And if the Lib Dems don't - where else do the Labour party voters (mainly remain nowadays) go....

To highlight the issue - this is my constituency's 2017 result

Labour 22,000
Tory 18,000 (and remember the zipgate scandal that cost a lot of votes)
Lib Dems 1,500
UKIP 1,500

As someone who wants remain how do you vote...

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

Those are ComRes and Opinium results, only 1% down on the best score (this decade) from those firms, so we don't know yet what their true level of support is given the higher scores with Yougov and Ipsos-Mori.

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.

Son-of- Corbyn could do an awful lot of damage to your Nirvana in 5 years, including of course re-joining the EU without a referendum.

Indeed he could and I would see to undo that at the next election. Democracy, do you understand the concept?

I think so. I just preferred it when there were safeguards to reign in the excesses of for example a Corbyn government's Soviet-style programme. I guess you are ok with that, and heaven forbid it became a popular Soviet- style populist government. Blimey, if it moves they could nationalise it.

matt said:

eek said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whatever it reveals, tonight’s Panorama will change absolutely nothing inside Labour. It will continue to be institutionally anti-Semitic for as long as the far left is in control. The only thing you can do to make a difference is not vote Labour. But doing that means you let in Johnson, who also stands shoulder to shoulder with racists, is in the pocket of Donald Trump and would happily sell the country down the river if it served his purposes. In whichever direction you look the UK's future is bleak and getting bleaker. Those who able to leave are mad to stay!

The first step in tackling any form of institutional equalities breach is recognising that it exists. The evidence so far is that Labour doesn't.

Not voting for Corbyn won't necessarily let in Boris if there continues to be a near four-way split (or if one of those other parties starts to pull clear of Con/Lab).

And if the Lib Dems don't - where else do the Labour party voters (mainly remain nowadays) go....

They claim that their MPs will be able to act as an effective brake and will put any moral scruples to one side for their greater good. It’s nonsense of course, Labour MPs seem to have the spine of jellyfish and the rule of popular will is king but a blind eye and all that.

See my post below - how do you go from 1,500 to 22,000?

eek said:

Zephyr said:

Boris has been damaged

eek said:

Zephyr said:

it could have come from Russian/Wikileaks, to smail via Brexit Party, even Trumps team. I am confident we will never know, leak enquiry’s seldom succeed in getting the perpetrators.

Stitch up or not, that Boris and Brexit itself has been damaged by this Kimgate affair is beyond question.

I'm not sure - Boris has been damaged but it's the lack of support that damages him not the leak itself and that couldn't have been assumed.

As for Brexit it only confirms that leaving the EU for the US isn't the greatest plan... By itself it doesn't change anything..

If British Government assures us foreign powers were definitely not involved, I wouldn’t simply believe them, after all they would need to know who it was to be able to make that statement. Just because Assange went embassystircrazy and is gibbering behind bars doesn’t mean wikileaks or suppliers and customers gone away.

As to brexit. It’s just not the same anymore. People didnt vote for no deal, they voted to take back control not lose standing in the world and be even poorer. I am beginning to suspect something like Brexit needs to be delivered hot straight after the vote. Like when you take it out the fire and need to start bashing away at it straight away, summer we voted out was when Boris should have been crowned to deliver it. Three years following that thing that came out the fire hot has been cooling down. In those three years May over ruled Davis and allowed EU an arse over tit negotiation schedule its left Boris with little option than to say what isn’t concluded by October gets negotiated and settled after we have Brexited. That and a no deal the only Brexit left, isn’t it? Mind you I still think Boris negotiation-kicking Brexit can work, its not that different to the current deal, we claim Brexit and enter into a steady as she goes transition period, after both sides keen to avoid no deal kick even more things to be agreed to future.

Yes. How this plays out is beginning to come clear isn’t it. 🤔

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whatever it reveals, tonight’s Panorama will change absolutely nothing inside Labour.

I spent my adult life wanting to live in a Labour/Tory marginal. Now I do I wish I didn't! But I am voting LibDem whatever now. I cannot support Corbyn Labour. It is a racist party. I am sure Johnson's Tory party is too. Given that, I have to actively vote against both.

Welcome!

The one reassurance is that, if things continue as they are, the next GE will be one on which the voting tallies from the previous GE will be less relevant than ever before.

Yep, there are going to be extremes of tactical voting across the board whenever the next election takes place. The one thing I would say is that I retain my faith in the essential decency of the majority of the British people. Unfortunately, though, the minority is bigger than I thought!

The issue won’t so much be tactical voting as against intelligent tactical voting. There are tons of Tory seats where Labour is now second that Labour won’t win in a month of Sundays, even if they were running close for lead in the polls, that could fall to other parties based on current poll ratings.

One unusual example is the Isle of Wight, long a Green target, where Labour came second last time, but they will never be able to win. On latest polls the Greens are in with a shot, especially with a pact with the LDs, yet Labour will be able to use the 2017 result to try and squeeze the LD and Green vote in their favour. If non-Tory voters trended Green, they’d chalk up another gain, but the now time-expired Corbyn surge of 2017 makes this more difficult for them.

The LibDems are in a similar position in dozens of seats across the SW and Home Counties.

The Isle of Wight was held by Stephen Ross for the Liberals 1974 - 1987. It should be a target seat for them.

IOW is interesting Ross was a personality, the locals, I think selected the lunatic who’s name escapes me, before they realized he was a lunatic. There is actually a real problem when any, but maybe particularly the lib dems, party controls all levels of government. People gravitate to the party because they want to be councilors and the only way to achieve that’s is to join the party. The end result can be catastrophic but in the case of the Tory’s they would argue that despite being elected as a Tory they weren’t political! Yes they actually believed being a Tory councillor wasn’t political.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/KateMaltby/status/1148973847946944513

So are our own ambassadors. How will they dare to be honest if they're just going to be pilloried like this? Or worse, if they said something nasty about a psychopath - say, President Xi - and suffered a little accident.

The damage done is enormous. I hope whoever did it is found and jailed good and hard under the Byng principle.

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1149039017977159681

matt said:

ydoethur said:

matt said:

the Leominster greens are flat earthers

Do you mean that literally?!

Nothing would surprise me in Herefordshire. Anyone who claims superiority because they are Herefordshire born and bred is merely advertising that they were too stupid to leave. It’s like the Forest of Dean albeit with less incest.

Incest? Don't be ridiculous.

None of us are actually related to the sheep, you know!

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.

Son-of- Corbyn could do an awful lot of damage to your Nirvana in 5 years, including of course re-joining the EU without a referendum.

Indeed he could and I would see to undo that at the next election. Democracy, do you understand the concept?

I think so. I just preferred it when there were safeguards to reign in the excesses of for example a Corbyn government's Soviet-style programme. I guess you are ok with that, and heaven forbid it became a popular Soviet- style populist government. Blimey, if it moves they could nationalise it.

I prefer to have democracy as the safeguard.

What happens if a future EU-led government led to Soviet-style populist government and we can't kick it out at the ballot box?

Ah, that old chestnut, the Federal United States of Europe!

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

The latest YouGov actually has them ahead of Labour but the point is that sufficient numbers of ex-Labour members like my wife and have switched to the LibDems and won't be even contemplating going back until Corbyn/Milne et al have been shipped off.

That may or may not result in many LibDem MPs but it's going to be enough to cost Labour seats. I don't want Johnson or Corbyn on my conscience.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1149039017977159681

The truth clearly hurts...

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

Incorrect. You cannot compare polls from one firm with another. Latest
Ipsos MORI 22%
YouGov 20%
ComRes 16%
Opinium 15%

The top two were by some margin the most accurate at the Euros

eek said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1149039017977159681

The truth clearly hurts...

What does EL4C mean, please? I assume that it’s terribly significant.

eek said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1149039017977159681

The truth clearly hurts...

The Labour party is anti-racist ergo there is no racism in the Labour party.

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Mexicanpete said:

So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.

Son-of- Corbyn could do an awful lot of damage to your Nirvana in 5 years, including of course re-joining the EU without a referendum.

Indeed he could and I would see to undo that at the next election. Democracy, do you understand the concept?

I think so. I just preferred it when there were safeguards to reign in the excesses of for example a Corbyn government's Soviet-style programme. I guess you are ok with that, and heaven forbid it became a popular Soviet- style populist government. Blimey, if it moves they could nationalise it.

I prefer to have democracy as the safeguard.

What happens if a future EU-led government led to Soviet-style populist government and we can't kick it out at the ballot box?

Ah, that old chestnut, the Federal United States of Europe!

It's a ratchett that already exists.

If we want to undo an EU-law how can we do so via the ballot box?
If we want to undo a UK-law how can we do so via the ballot box?

justin124 said:

I do wonder whether Prorogation would threaten the perceived legitimacy of the Government such that there might develop demands for a General Strike etc - direct action which would receive a great deal of public support.

Doubtless you'll get slated for being over-dramatic.

justin124 said:

IanB2 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

Most LibDem seats will be won from the Tories, and the tipping point for them starts to kick in as soon as the LibDems draw equal to the Tories in terms of vote share. Today’s 23%-23% draw in the YouGov is encouraging.

But that was a hypothetical poll - not the normal voting intention result!

All voting intention polls are hypothetical based on the the presumption that there's a general election tomorrow

Mexicanpete said:

eek said:

Mexicanpete said:

eek said:

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

40% is impossible (unless there is a Lib Dem / Green pact and even then I reckon it's nearer 30-33%).

Labour need to be on board too, with or without Corbyn- hopefully without, otherwise its Boris and Nige on a home-run.

Labour with a second referendum are safe in fair few leave seats - see my comment earlier - you've always voted Labour, why change as we are only offering a second referendum. Surely Leave will win that second referendum so what's the issue, prove the point. It may seem insane but Labour only want Brexit votes they don't need core Tory votes there..

I spent decades in the Labour Party fending off the likes of Dave Nellist, Degsy and Corbyn. They have won- for the moment- but possibly forever. I don't want to vote for them now! If the LDs could pick up enough seats along with PC, SNP and Greens to defeat Boris and you don't need Labour I would be happy to vote for them, but I can't see that outcome for a generation. Which is why Labour even with a moron like Corbyn in charge need to be part of the Remainer picture, otherwise it is Boris and his brand of half-wittery that takes us out of the EU on his terms.

I suspect (heck we know) Labour can't and won't win a majority - the loss of Scotland to the SNP makes that impossible - hence the second referendum will be traded into revoke or referendum where everyone focuses on Remain and the leave option is actually defined.
What you can't however do is ignore the Labour remain seats - if they go to Brexit or the Tories leave could well have a majority. Labour need ambiguity to maximise what they can win and the remain parties need that to cross the 325 seat threshold.

It may be difficult to prove in court who the leaker was but if it becomes public knowledge that it was someone prominent then it might still destroy their career.

rottenborough said:

eek said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1149039017977159681

The truth clearly hurts...

The Labour party is anti-racist ergo there is no racism in the Labour party.

I think its more the ostrich with ears in the sand....

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/AaronBastani/status/1149015560799301634

This is on the same par as the moon landings were fake!!!

It says quite a lot about the lack of academic rigour at RHUL that this guy has a PhD from them, even in sociology.

FrankBooth said:

It may be difficult to prove in court who the leaker was but if it becomes public knowledge that it was someone prominent then it might still destroy their career.

A greater risk therefore would appear to be someone starting a malicious rumour to damage somebody from personal spite.

But realistically, there are very few people who could have leaked this and they must all be being invest right now.

eek said:

david_herdson said:

SouthamObserver said:

Whatever it reveals, tonight’s Panorama will change absolutely nothing inside Labour. It will continue to be institutionally anti-Semitic for as long as the far left is in control. The only thing you can do to make a difference is not vote Labour. But doing that means you let in Johnson, who also stands shoulder to shoulder with racists, is in the pocket of Donald Trump and would happily sell the country down the river if it served his purposes. In whichever direction you look the UK's future is bleak and getting bleaker. Those who able to leave are mad to stay!

The first step in tackling any form of institutional equalities breach is recognising that it exists. The evidence so far is that Labour doesn't.

Not voting for Corbyn won't necessarily let in Boris if there continues to be a near four-way split (or if one of those other parties starts to pull clear of Con/Lab).

And if the Lib Dems don't - where else do the Labour party voters (mainly remain nowadays) go....

To highlight the issue - this is my constituency's 2017 result

Labour 22,000
Tory 18,000 (and remember the zipgate scandal that cost a lot of votes)
Lib Dems 1,500
UKIP 1,500

As someone who wants remain how do you vote...

You're misremembering your constituency's result, nowhere had that - even rounded to the nearest thousand.
Darlington was 23k Lab, 19k Tory, 1k LD, 1k UKIP ?

eek said:

Mexicanpete said:

eek said:

Mexicanpete said:

eek said:

justin124 said:

stodge said:

IanB2 said:

That depends on where you live. There are plenty of Labour held seats that the Tories will never win. And plenty of Tory and SNP seats that Labour will never win.

Maximising the LD vote is all that matters. With 40% of the vote we can get rid of Boris Johnson, Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage in a single night and get this country back on track.

That should be the aim whether it's Jo or Ed.

At the moment polls have them on 15%/16% and beginning to fall back.

40% is impossible (unless there is a Lib Dem / Green pact and even then I reckon it's nearer 30-33%).

Labour need to be on board too, with or without Corbyn- hopefully without, otherwise its Boris and Nige on a home-run.

Labour with a second referendum are safe in fair few leave seats - see my comment earlier - you've always voted Labour, why change as we are only offering a second referendum. Surely Leave will win that second referendum so what's the issue, prove the point. It may seem insane but Labour only want Brexit votes they don't need core Tory votes there..

I spent decades in the Labour Party fending off the likes of Dave Nellist, Degsy and Corbyn. They have won- for the moment- but possibly forever. I don't want to vote for them now! If the LDs could pick up enough seats along with PC, SNP and Greens to defeat Boris and you don't need Labour I would be happy to vote for them, but I can't see that outcome for a generation. Which is why Labour even with a moron like Corbyn in charge need to be part of the Remainer picture, otherwise it is Boris and his brand of half-wittery that takes us out of the EU on his terms.

I suspect (heck we know) Labour can't and won't win a majority - the loss of Scotland to the SNP makes that impossible - hence the second referendum will be traded into revoke or referendum where everyone focuses on Remain and the leave option is actually defined.
What you can't however do is ignore the Labour remain seats - if they go to Brexit or the Tories leave could well have a majority. Labour need ambiguity to maximise what they can win and the remain parties need that to cross the 325 seat threshold.

Ambiguity is one of the factors killing the Labour Part along with the other 999 cuts inflicted by Corbyn.

Labour need to firmly come down on the side of a second vote, they really need to be part of the anti- Boris/Farage alliance, otherwise Boris/Farage win.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/OwenJones84/status/1149022508001234945

That paragraph could do with a few Oxford commas....

https://twitter.com/Channel4News/status/1149037239005057025

FrankBooth said:

It may be difficult to prove in court who the leaker was but if it becomes public knowledge that it was someone prominent then it might still destroy their career.

It depends on how much HMG wants to find the individual who did the deed. Not only will someone have to access the information, which leaves evidence, other technology can indicate who the person was who got the information. Mobile phone movements for instance can be cross checked. They may not have used the phone for transmission of the information but location information can be cross checked against login times. Finger prints may have been left on the documents if photocopied or other forensic evidence. If the journalist has destroyed the information now or previously then they might be liable for perverting the course of justice? I don't know how a Journalist reporting this information was in the public interest and the net could close in around the said journalist pretty quickly...