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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As we wait for the controversial Panorama report on LAB and an

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  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1149063200106848256?s=21

    Obligatory “so what are you going to do about it??”

    Stand against Corbyn and finally bring this civil war to its head?
    But Corbyn would win again and then what?
    Boris beats Corbyn with a comfortable majority
    Does he beat Starmer, after the new Labour ldr has had months and a whole campaign of publicity?
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Scott_P said:

    ydoethur said:

    The most embarrassing thing about this for Labour is the bizarre nature of their statement in response. It's so badly put together and unconvincing you would think Jeffrey Archer would blench at it.

    https://twitter.com/labourpress/status/1149057374155620357
    "And what was it that first attracted you to the job of auditing the Labour Party for anti semitism, Baroness Chakrabarti?"
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    kle4 said:

    Even the keyboard warrior outriders will know in their heart of hearts that what they have to tweet is a load of nonsense

    I think that is pretty optimistic. If there are a few things the internet age has taught us it is the value of the enthusiastic amateur (so most don't need to be paid to write garbage, they do it for free) and the other is that no matter how crazy a view might be, the idea the person writing it does not actually believe what they are saying is probably wrong. It's almost encouraging to think that, because it means those opposed to us are just bad people doing it simply because they are opponents, rather than because the truly think those things.

    I think my first test of whether this latest stuff has any breakthrough will be if anyone mentions it in the office tomorrow. Not that I think many will have watched it - heck, I have not - but to see if the reporting on it has broken through and what the reaction to that reporting is at least.
    It was not on BBC in Wales.

    I watched it on BBC London through Sky
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Do you think the marvellous Ms Le Conte has just outed herself as a PB comments reader?

    http://twitter.com/youngvulgarian/status/1149069365519798278
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    IanB2 said:

    https://twitter.com/wesstreeting/status/1149066763520397313

    ... plus, why are you still a Labour MP?

    I know Wes very well. He is genuinely torn. He is ambitious, and hopes for a long future in the Labour Party, which he joined very young. He knows that leaving normally means the wilderness (cf. CUK). Yet the type of party he wants to support isn’t the one he is currently a member of. He clings to the hope that a second Blair will arise (or maybe sees a future self as such). But I fear he is going to be disappointed.
    Very interesting tidbit. Thank you. Does his CLP support him?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happen as he would not ask for an extension and Parliament would not try and force him to ask for an extension.

    There may be some No Deal tidying up bills and subsequent renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement to at least remove the temporary Customs Union for GB but with no extension requested we would leave the EU on 31st October


    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the beginning of them...

    I can easily explain in 8 steps enough to scare your average Leave Pensioner back to Labour....

    It ends with less tax revenue, less money to pay your pension and no legal requirement to do so as we are outside the EU...
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    We get supplies of prescription drugs from the US now as well as elsewhere in the world, as Boris said the savings from EU contributions will go onto the NHS
    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of monthly insulin prescription in the us is $450. Can you afford that?

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    BoZo is as thin-skinned as his buddy
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Scott_P said:
    Scott_P said:

    BoZo is as thin-skinned as his buddy

    He is. As for whether he deserves blame, well, I do not know, but to use common parlance, his outriders all supported throwing the ambassador under the bus, which is at least of note.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    HYUFD said:

    Boris beats Corbyn with a comfortable majority

    That is absolute nonsense in a skirt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Pulpstar said:

    I'm watching the Apollo doc.

    In 50 years the US has gone from Kennedy & landing on the moon to Trump & no human spaceflight launch capability.

    Always forget it was Tricky Dicky in charge when they landed !
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    Won’t make a blind bit of difference . Most are watching Love Island or are bored to tears with Labours never ending saga on anti Semitism .

    People filter out anything they don’t like about politicians or parties and that’s the times we live in.

    I think it will make a difference. It was a damaging programme in its quiet insidious way.
    There will be lots of outrage from Labour MPs and that’s it.

    I don’t like Corbyn or his cronies as a Labour supporter but sadly we live in an age of varying degrees of horror to choose from politically .

    When push comes to shove Labour supporters will still vote for the party even with Corbyn .

  • ByronicByronic Posts: 3,578
    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    Me too. It was searing to watch. THAT was the big new story. People considering suicide thanks to Labour's lofty indifference to/glib acceptance of, Jew-hatred?

    Maybe it won't cut through to the general public. Probably it won't. But I do think that more politically engaged people will be appalled, and will recoil. Therefore it will damage Labour at the grassroots level. "Do I want to campaign for THIS party, and THIS leader??"
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438

    kle4 said:

    Even the keyboard warrior outriders will know in their heart of hearts that what they have to tweet is a load of nonsense

    I think that is pretty optimistic. If there are a few things the internet age has taught us it is the value of the enthusiastic amateur (so most don't need to be paid to write garbage, they do it for free) and the other is that no matter how crazy a view might be, the idea the person writing it does not actually believe what they are saying is probably wrong. It's almost encouraging to think that, because it means those opposed to us are just bad people doing it simply because they are opponents, rather than because the truly think those things.

    I think my first test of whether this latest stuff has any breakthrough will be if anyone mentions it in the office tomorrow. Not that I think many will have watched it - heck, I have not - but to see if the reporting on it has broken through and what the reaction to that reporting is at least.
    It was not on BBC in Wales.

    I watched it on BBC London through Sky
    What did they have on?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    Can't think why they would hate people who are investigating AS.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited July 2019
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    Me too. It was searing to watch. THAT was the big new story. People considering suicide thanks to Labour's lofty indifference to/glib acceptance of, Jew-hatred?

    Maybe it won't cut through to the general public. Probably it won't. But I do think that more politically engaged people will be appalled, and will recoil. Therefore it will damage Labour at the grassroots level. "Do I want to campaign for THIS party, and THIS leader??"
    "I'm campaigning for [insert local candidate here]. He/she is great"

    Job done, if they have concerns on Corbyn. Yes, they are still backing him as PM, but that's the path people will take to stick to their tribal vote. We can already see plenty of staunch anti-Borisites finding their own reasons to keep backing the party under him too.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happen as he would not ask for an extension and Parliament would not try and force him to ask for an extension.

    There may be some No Deal tidying up bills and subsequent renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement to at least remove the temporary Customs Union for GB but with no extension requested we would leave the EU on 31st October


    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the..
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    We get supplies of prescription drugs from the US now as well as elsewhere in the world, as Boris said the savings from EU contributions will go onto the NHS
    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    Me too. It was searing to watch. THAT was the big new story. People considering suicide thanks to Labour's lofty indifference to/glib acceptance of, Jew-hatred?

    Maybe it won't cut through to the general public. Probably it won't. But I do think that more politically engaged people will be appalled, and will recoil. Therefore it will damage Labour at the grassroots level. "Do I want to campaign for THIS party, and THIS leader??"
    Yeh, but, but, but, austerity, the NHS, bus services etc etc...
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited July 2019
    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    That struck me too, they all came across as credible in their personal testimony. They came across as human and genuine in contrast to the party's stilted rebuttals. The problem isn't just Corbyn it's the clique that now runs the show and they are not going to give up power without a monumental struggle.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm watching the Apollo doc.

    In 50 years the US has gone from Kennedy & landing on the moon to Trump & no human spaceflight launch capability.

    Always forget it was Tricky Dicky in charge when they landed !
    Guardian wrote this morning that 4% of US GDP per year was going on NASA at the height.

    4%!!!!!!

    That figure astounded me. Perhaps it is a typo?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,842
    Scott_P said:
    And Labour's descent into the mire because of the bigotry at the heart of their party is horrendous and shameful. But she won't speak out against that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happen as he would not ask for an extension and Parliament would not try and force him to ask for an extension.

    There may be some No Deal tidying up bills and subsequent renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement to at least remove the temporary Customs Union for GB but with no extension requested we would leave the EU on 31st October


    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the beginning of them...

    I can easily explain in 8 steps enough to scare your average Leave Pensioner back to Labour....

    It ends with less tax revenue, less money to pay your pension and no legal requirement to do so as we are outside the EU...
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    We get supplies of prescription drugs from the US now as well as elsewhere in the world, as Boris said the savings from EU contributions will go onto the NHS
    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of monthly insulin prescription in the us is $450. Can you afford that?

    A trade deal will be up for negotiation and part of the purpose of it to lower overall costs on both sides, the NHS already gets thousands of drugs from the US
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Zephyr said:

    kle4 said:

    Even the keyboard warrior outriders will know in their heart of hearts that what they have to tweet is a load of nonsense

    I think that is pretty optimistic. If there are a few things the internet age has taught us it is the value of the enthusiastic amateur (so most don't need to be paid to write garbage, they do it for free) and the other is that no matter how crazy a view might be, the idea the person writing it does not actually believe what they are saying is probably wrong. It's almost encouraging to think that, because it means those opposed to us are just bad people doing it simply because they are opponents, rather than because the truly think those things.

    I think my first test of whether this latest stuff has any breakthrough will be if anyone mentions it in the office tomorrow. Not that I think many will have watched it - heck, I have not - but to see if the reporting on it has broken through and what the reaction to that reporting is at least.
    It was not on BBC in Wales.

    I watched it on BBC London through Sky
    What did they have on?
    A programme about the left behind but I did not watch it due to the Panorama programme
  • GardenwalkerGardenwalker Posts: 21,298
    All of this shite from Tory and Labour was baked in by the 2017 GE. I voted LD for first time ever and haven’t looked back.

    As Stodge reminds us, we can rid ourselves of these turbulent beasts if we want to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1149063200106848256?s=21

    Obligatory “so what are you going to do about it??”

    Stand against Corbyn and finally bring this civil war to its head?
    But Corbyn would win again and then what?
    Boris beats Corbyn with a comfortable majority
    Does he beat Starmer, after the new Labour ldr has had months and a whole campaign of publicity?
    Yes, Starmer is the UK Bill Shorten.

    Not that Corbyn is going anywhere anyway
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm watching the Apollo doc.

    In 50 years the US has gone from Kennedy & landing on the moon to Trump & no human spaceflight launch capability.

    Always forget it was Tricky Dicky in charge when they landed !
    Guardian wrote this morning that 4% of US GDP per year was going on NASA at the height.

    4%!!!!!!

    That figure astounded me. Perhaps it is a typo?
    I don't think so. IIRC at it's peak the Apollo programme had the equivalent of 400,000 full time jobs.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,468
    There’s absolutely no way that the BBC doctored an email. What are these guys smoking?
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited July 2019

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    Me too. It was searing to watch. THAT was the big new story. People considering suicide thanks to Labour's lofty indifference to/glib acceptance of, Jew-hatred?

    Maybe it won't cut through to the general public. Probably it won't. But I do think that more politically engaged people will be appalled, and will recoil. Therefore it will damage Labour at the grassroots level. "Do I want to campaign for THIS party, and THIS leader??"
    For those who watched it, I think it might cut through. That is precisely the kind of treatment of subordinates by management that any labour movement ought to exist to fight.
    Contemptible.

  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    kle4 said:

    Byronic said:

    Drutt said:

    Back on topic, what struck me about the Panorama was not how much echelons of the Labour party are anti-Semitic - that's hardly news - but how much they hate people investigating AS. The testimony of party workers driven out, driven to madness and driven almost to suicide is the bit that's probably not priced into the polling.

    Me too. It was searing to watch. THAT was the big new story. People considering suicide thanks to Labour's lofty indifference to/glib acceptance of, Jew-hatred?

    Maybe it won't cut through to the general public. Probably it won't. But I do think that more politically engaged people will be appalled, and will recoil. Therefore it will damage Labour at the grassroots level. "Do I want to campaign for THIS party, and THIS leader??"
    "I'm campaigning for [insert local candidate here]. He/she is great"

    Job done, if they have concerns on Corbyn. Yes, they are still backing him as PM, but that's the path people will take to stick to their tribal vote. We can already see plenty of staunch anti-Borisites finding their own reasons to keep backing the party under him too.
    If Boris no deals I will not be a member
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    HYUFD said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of monthly insulin prescription in the us is $450. Can you afford that?

    A trade deal will be up for negotiation and part of the purpose of it to lower overall costs on both sides, the NHS already gets thousands of drugs from the US
    That wasn’t what I wrote - try again...
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    I look forward to Tom Watson’s response as he follows Liam
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900


    Guardian wrote this morning that 4% of US GDP per year was going on NASA at the height.

    4%!!!!!!

    That figure astounded me. Perhaps it is a typo?


    Sounds about right - NASA in the 60s had a mammoth budget, close to $50 billion per year in today's money (and in a drastically smaller economy).

  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    HYUFD said:

    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1149063200106848256?s=21

    Obligatory “so what are you going to do about it??”

    Stand against Corbyn and finally bring this civil war to its head?
    But Corbyn would win again and then what?
    Boris beats Corbyn with a comfortable majority
    Does he beat Starmer, after the new Labour ldr has had months and a whole campaign of publicity?
    Yes, Starmer is the UK Bill Shorten.

    Not that Corbyn is going anywhere anyway
    “Not that Corbyn is going anywhere anyway”.

    This time last week i would have agreed. The last few days I’m not so sure.

    Even as Boris fanatic you would admit its not been a good few days for Boris too? I think his win is nearer 60/40 than 70/30.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happe

    Snip

    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the beginning of them...

    I can easily explain in 8 steps enough to scare your average Leave Pensioner back to Labour....

    It ends with less tax revenue, less money to pay your pension and no legal requirement to do so as we are outside the EU...
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    We get supplies of prescription drugs from the US now as well as elsewhere in the world, as Boris said the savings from EU contributions will go onto the NHS
    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of monthly insulin prescription in the us is $450. Can you afford that?

    If US insulin were available at $450 a pop, why would the NHS buy it unless it were cheaper or better than their existing supply?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    To be blunt if this was a problem with Islamophobia the Labour Party would have sorted this out by now and Corbyn would have probably been toast .

    The facts are there are at least 3 million Muslims in the UK , a crucial voting block for the party , across many marginals . There are just around 350 thousand Jews in the UK, , very localized which have a big effect in only a few constituencies .

    It’s pretty clear that if Corbyn was to go the focal point of the problem would go with him but I can’t see him being challenged . I can just sit and imagine what Labour might do with someone like Keir Starmer .

  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    edited July 2019
    Welcome to British politics 2019, where dictatorial ideological purity & racism is the stock in trade of one party leader and the prospective leader of another party hasn't got a single bone of public service motivation in himself. Self service yes, public service no.

    One comment on the Darroch situation. Over in the US political establishment, its not going over as big a story because they have many other distractions, one of which is one Jeffrey Epstein.

    Unpleasant human being. Knows a lot of people, holds a lot of secrets, mixed up with a lot of overseas types including agencies that you shouldnt be sharing the table with. There will be politicians over there crapping a brick for fear of contamination.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    edited July 2019
    nico67 said:

    kinabalu said:

    nico67 said:

    Won’t make a blind bit of difference . Most are watching Love Island or are bored to tears with Labours never ending saga on anti Semitism .

    People filter out anything they don’t like about politicians or parties and that’s the times we live in.

    I think it will make a difference. It was a damaging programme in its quiet insidious way.
    There will be lots of outrage from Labour MPs and that’s it.

    I don’t like Corbyn or his cronies as a Labour supporter but sadly we live in an age of varying degrees of horror to choose from politically .

    When push comes to shove Labour supporters will still vote for the party even with Corbyn .

    I wouldn't bet on it. I was a member till Ed resigned and my opinion of Corbyn, Milne et al has got steadily worse. Nothing would induce me to vote Labour let alone rejoin while they are in control. It's clear from PB alone that many former supporters feel the same way.
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Scott_P said:
    Let's see if the EHRC agree Labour is not institutionally AS.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Tice is an arse.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    Drutt said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happe

    Snip

    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the beginning of them...

    I can easily explain in 8 steps enough to scare your average Leave Pensioner back to Labour....

    It ends with less tax revenue, less money to pay your pension and no legal requirement to do so as we are outside the EU...
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    We get supplies of prescription drugs from the US now as well as elsewhere in the world, as Boris said the savings from EU contributions will go onto the NHS
    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of monthly insulin prescription in the us is $450. Can you afford that?

    If US insulin were available at $450 a pop, why would the NHS buy it unless it were cheaper or better than their existing supply?
    It’s not - but can I saw you historic video of Nigel and his desire to replace the NHS with an insurance based scheme managed by US health care insurance firms..

    In a 5 week campaign there is a lot of time to slowly show things Farage and Boris have said in the past and show the consequences of it.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.

    92% of Tory members. Which is not a large number of voters.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406
    edited July 2019

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make their money last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006

    I suppose they doctored the testimony of all those employees and members as well!
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124
    Richard Tice making an unwashed dick of himself on Newsnight, saying that the problem with the Darroch affair was the content of the diptels.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Scott_P said:
    Can Jones actually provide evidence that this is "tawdry"?

  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    edited July 2019
    glw said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm watching the Apollo doc.

    In 50 years the US has gone from Kennedy & landing on the moon to Trump & no human spaceflight launch capability.

    Always forget it was Tricky Dicky in charge when they landed !
    Guardian wrote this morning that 4% of US GDP per year was going on NASA at the height.

    4%!!!!!!

    That figure astounded me. Perhaps it is a typo?
    I don't think so. IIRC at it's peak the Apollo programme had the equivalent of 400,000 full time jobs.
    Yes that is correct.

    Mind you the British Military in the 1960s were still 10% of public/government spending IIRC, that is not GDP! It was a different era with different priorities. People were prepared to forgo things personally so that a country as a whole could prioritise prestige projects or a military that could compete on all platforms with opponents. I doubt people are willing to forgo much beyond a certain point now and people were vociferous in their opposition to Nasa spending in the US and military spending all over the Western world even in the 1960s.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make your their last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
    Not sure what you mean but I do not need insulin and to be honest a trade deal with the US is years away, if ever
  • ralphmalphralphmalph Posts: 2,201
    Nigelb said:

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.

    92% of Tory members. Which is not a large number of voters.
    Correct i was fishing for a bite.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    Drutt said:

    Richard Tice making an unwashed dick of himself on Newsnight, saying that the problem with the Darroch affair was the content of the diptels.

    Agreed . He really is a clueless moron .
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make your their last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
    Not sure what you mean but I do not need insulin and to be honest a trade deal with the US is years away, if ever
    You hope but after a No Deal Brexit would we be able to say No....
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Tice claiming that “these were not classified documents”.
    How does he know one way or the other ?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited July 2019

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.

    So under 100% of Conservative members are committed to the Conservative
    Party? They’re more destitute than I thought.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Y0kel said:

    Welcome to British politics 2019, where dictatorial ideological purity & racism is the stock in trade of one party leader and the prospective leader of another party hasn't got a single bone of public service motivation in himself. Self service yes, public service no.

    One comment on the Darroch situation. Over in the US political establishment, its not going over as big a story because they have many other distractions, one of which is one Jeffrey Epstein.

    Unpleasant human being. Knows a lot of people, holds a lot of secrets, mixed up with a lot of overseas types including agencies that you shouldnt be sharing the table with. There will be politicians over there crapping a brick for fear of contamination.

    https://twitter.com/Tom_Winter/status/1149078131317379073
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make your their last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
    Not sure what you mean but I do not need insulin and to be honest a trade deal with the US is years away, if ever
    You hope but after a No Deal Brexit would we be able to say No....
    I do not support a no deal brexit and do not see the HOC allowing it
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    eek said:

    I look forward to Tom Watson’s response as he follows Liam
    As do I. Some beyond Corbyn's circle think there are problems that need resolving, they might want to take a somewhat nuanced view about how they think not enough is being done, this is all very concerning blah blah blah, but with accusations of actual doctored informed coming from the party, Watson and co need to address whether that is also their position, as their concern or lack thereof may be worth more, or less, depending on if they too think the programe was full of such inaccuracies.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Yes - that Boris is called out for being wrong and will still win easily, not inspite of but even because of being called wrong.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,133
    I am sure he will conclude it is something to do with Brexit....
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make your their last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
    Not sure what you mean but I do not need insulin and to be honest a trade deal with the US is years away, if ever
    You hope but after a No Deal Brexit would we be able to say No....
    I do not support a no deal brexit and do not see the HOC allowing it
    And when Boris goes for an election without asking for an extension?
  • ZephyrZephyr Posts: 438
    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    Zephyr said:

    HYUFD said:

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1149063200106848256?s=21

    Obligatory “so what are you going to do about it??”

    Stand against Corbyn and finally bring this civil war to its head?
    But Corbyn would win again and then what?
    Boris beats Corbyn with a comfortable majority
    Does he beat Starmer, after the new Labour ldr has had months and a whole campaign of publicity?
    Yes, Starmer is the UK Bill Shorten.

    Not that Corbyn is going anywhere anyway
    “Not that Corbyn is going anywhere anyway”.

    This time last week i would have agreed. The last few days I’m not so sure.

    Even as Boris fanatic you would admit its not been a good few days for Boris too? I think his win is nearer 60/40 than 70/30.
    60/40 is still a comprehensive win nothing too be ashamed of. How much member polling has there been and how reliable are such polls? There has to be a solid 30-40% boris was never going to get against a moderate remain opponent.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Labour have fallen into the trap of 'protesting too much' creating an even bigger problem that could spiral out of control
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make your their last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
    Not sure what you mean but I do not need insulin and to be honest a trade deal with the US is years away, if ever
    You hope but after a No Deal Brexit would we be able to say No....
    I do not support a no deal brexit and do not see the HOC allowing it
    And when Boris goes for an election without asking for an extension?
    Not easy under FPTP
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:

    eek said:



    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of insulin in the us is $450 a month. Can you afford that?

    I cannot see any trade deal with the US in years and at my age I am not giving it a moments thought.

    Today has seen Boris in a self made car crash, but Corbyn and his associates sicken me to the core.

    How on earth has labour descended into the depths of revulsion shown tonight with staffers even on the verge of suicide

    Do you want me to repeat the reduced tax revenue so no money to pay / increase pensions bit?
    No need. I am aware of the financial risks but projecting fear about pensions is on a par with previous attempts to scare people into remaining

    My viewpoint is more ensuring that I can honestly say don’t say I didn’t warn you as they try to make your their last the week..

    I’ve previously had the same with the public sector IR35 reforms. A friend told me he’s just got a £100k bill from HMRC. While I’m sympathetic it’s hard not to say I told you what to do and told you this would happen if you didn’t move elsewhere.
    Not sure what you mean but I do not need insulin and to be honest a trade deal with the US is years away, if ever
    You hope but after a No Deal Brexit would we be able to say No....
    I do not support a no deal brexit and do not see the HOC allowing it
    And when Boris goes for an election without asking for an extension?
    Not easy under FPTP
    It’s insane but it only takes 2 MPs to resign or the DUP to walk away and his majority is gone...
    And there are more than 2 Tory MPs who may walk...
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    The second tweet says Panorama “selectively quoted” it... that’s not the same as “edited”

    But a lie will be half way round the world etc
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happen as he would not ask for an extension and Parliament would not try and force him to ask for an extension.

    There may be some No Deal tidying up bills and subsequent renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement to at least remove the temporary Customs Union for GB but with no extension requested we would leave the EU on 31st October


    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the beginning of them...

    I can easily explain in 8 steps enough to scare your average Leave Pensioner back to Labour....

    It ends with less tax revenue, less money to pay your pension and no legal requirement to do so as we are outside the EU...
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    I’m guessing the same way we always have: using PPRS and NICE to control drug pricing
  • glwglw Posts: 9,912
    Nigelb said:

    Tice claiming that “these were not classified documents”.
    How does he know one way or the other ?

    I believe Alan Duncan said that they were classified in a statement to the Commons. I would assume that such a statement was carefully prepared.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.


    'Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party vote would collapse and switch back to the Tories if Boris Johnson succeeded in taking the UK out of the EU by October 31, a poll of Tory party members shows.
    The vast majority of Conservative switchers to the Brexit Party would come back to the Tories in a subsequent general election, leaving Mr Farage with a tiny rump, according to the survey by pollsters Orb International for the Telegraph.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/tory-party-members-would-ditch-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-can/


    Of course if Boris did not follow his leave in October Deal or No Deal policy and instead followed the Hunt policy and left open further extension past October 31st they would not come back
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Nigelb said:

    Tice claiming that “these were not classified documents”.
    How does he know one way or the other ?

    Isabel Oakeshott was claiming that diagram of her contacts was absurd. But her coterie seems very well-informed.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,293
    edited July 2019
    I'm more convinced than ever that Boris will win a majority in a forthcoming election.

    Ian Dale had "frosty" Simon Heffer on his show this evening and he absolutely hates and lothes Boris with a passion not seen since Tony Blair was in government.

    But the fact of the matter is Hefferlump hates winners and loves losers.

    He hated Blair and didn't have much time for Cameron (both election winners)

    But he supported Brown and Theresa May (both losers)

    The general rule of thumb therefore is that if Heffer hates you your're a winner. If Heffer loves you you're a loser.

    Boris 50 seat majority on 17th October 2019 nailed on! :D
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,167
    edited July 2019
    HYUFD said:

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.


    'Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party vote would collapse and switch back to the Tories if Boris Johnson succeeded in taking the UK out of the EU by October 31, a poll of Tory party members shows.
    The vast majority of Conservative switchers to the Brexit Party would come back to the Tories in a subsequent general election, leaving Mr Farage with a tiny rump, according to the survey by pollsters Orb International for the Telegraph.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/tory-party-members-would-ditch-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-can/


    Of course if Boris did not follow his leave in October Deal or No Deal policy and instead followed the Hunt policy and left open further extension past October 31st they would not come back
    Which must mean that, clearly, Britain must take a life-changing and cataclysmic decision that only 30% of its broader population supports, in order to save one political party, which mysteriously thinks, as Theresa May did of it, that it *is* Britain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited July 2019
    Tory members who have applied for a London hustings place (including me) will be informed at 10am on Friday CCHQ have emailed to say if they are lucky enough to have got a seat for the Boris and Hunt London hustings next week.


  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    HYUFD said:

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.


    'Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party vote would collapse and switch back to the Tories if Boris Johnson succeeded in taking the UK out of the EU by October 31, a poll of Tory party members shows.
    The vast majority of Conservative switchers to the Brexit Party would come back to the Tories in a subsequent general election, leaving Mr Farage with a tiny rump, according to the survey by pollsters Orb International for the Telegraph.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/tory-party-members-would-ditch-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-can/


    Of course if Boris did not follow his leave in October Deal or No Deal policy and instead followed the Hunt policy and left open further extension past October 31st they would not come back
    A pointless poll.

    It’s the general Tory voters in the country that are important . You don’t win elections by appealing to just your membership .
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    HYUFD said:

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.


    'Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party vote would collapse and switch back to the Tories if Boris Johnson succeeded in taking the UK out of the EU by October 31, a poll of Tory party members shows.
    The vast majority of Conservative switchers to the Brexit Party would come back to the Tories in a subsequent general election, leaving Mr Farage with a tiny rump, according to the survey by pollsters Orb International for the Telegraph.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/tory-party-members-would-ditch-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-can/


    Of course if Boris did not follow his leave in October Deal or No Deal policy and instead followed the Hunt policy and left open further extension past October 31st they would not come back
    That's an amazing poll considering it is of Tory party MEMBERS !

    Mind you it went on with LD -> Lab members in 2017 and Lab -> LD members in the most recent Euro elections too.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    Nigelb said:

    Tice claiming that “these were not classified documents”.
    How does he know one way or the other ?

    Isabel Oakeshott was claiming that diagram of her contacts was absurd. But her coterie seems very well-informed.
    He ought have been asked to justify his assertion.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:

    eek said:

    HYUFD said:



    If Boris win a parliamentary majority for Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st that is what would happen as he would not ask for an extension and Parliament would not try and force him to ask for an extension.

    There may be some No Deal tidying up bills and subsequent renegotiation of the Withdrawal Agreement to at least remove the temporary Customs Union for GB but with no extension requested we would leave the EU on 31st October


    Deal requires time to get the bills through Parliament.
    No Deal requires time to get bills through Parliament\

    If Boris campaigns on a No Deal Brexit the Tory party is totally and utterly toast.

    You may not see it yet but I can imagine the posters already - mine aren't even the beginning of them...

    I can easily explain in 8 steps enough to scare your average Leave Pensioner back to Labour....

    It ends with less tax revenue, less money to pay your pension and no legal requirement to do so as we are outside the EU...
    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.

    The Tories will only be toast if they do not campaign to deliver Brexit, provided they campaign to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal they will be fine
    No deal requires Bills to be passed - the fact you think it doesn't shows as much attention to detail as Boris gives...

    I notice that you haven't commented on the second point so you think a pensioner scared for their pension outside the EU is going to vote for a No Deal Brexit and lose their free NHS prescriptions as well...
    No, as Article 50 has already been passed by Parliament, the EU will not even consider granting a further extension of Article 50 without a request from the UK PM and Parliament so by default we leave the EU on October 31st without that.

    Not one No Deal Bill needs to be passed to make it happen, only to make the effects of No Deal a bit more orderly
    Once again - dear leave voting pensioner - nice collection of prescription drugs there. How are you going to pay for it now the US controls the NHS?
    We get supplies of prescription drugs from the US now as well as elsewhere in the world, as Boris said the savings from EU contributions will go onto the NHS
    A trade deal with the US will require giving US firms access to the NHS.
    The price of monthly insulin prescription in the us is $450. Can you afford that?

    US firms currently have “access to the NHS”

    Globally most insulin is supplied by Novo Nordisk, Sanofi or Eli Lilly

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    I'm watching the Apollo doc.

    In 50 years the US has gone from Kennedy & landing on the moon to Trump & no human spaceflight launch capability.

    Always forget it was Tricky Dicky in charge when they landed !
    So Democrats are great at spending money on grand spectacles but it takes a Republican to being the boys home?

    😉
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,884
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    nico67 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Calling Hyufd - Telegraph have a new poll on your specialist subject, The Boris Bounce.

    If Boris leaves no deal or deal on 31st Oct 92% would vote Tory in future compares to 56% that would if Boris did not leave.


    'Nigel Farage’s Brexit Party vote would collapse and switch back to the Tories if Boris Johnson succeeded in taking the UK out of the EU by October 31, a poll of Tory party members shows.
    The vast majority of Conservative switchers to the Brexit Party would come back to the Tories in a subsequent general election, leaving Mr Farage with a tiny rump, according to the survey by pollsters Orb International for the Telegraph.'

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/07/10/tory-party-members-would-ditch-nigel-farage-boris-johnson-can/


    Of course if Boris did not follow his leave in October Deal or No Deal policy and instead followed the Hunt policy and left open further extension past October 31st they would not come back
    A pointless poll.

    It’s the general Tory voters in the country that are important . You don’t win elections by appealing to just your membership .
    General Tory voters in the country also back Brexit, Deal or No Deal
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    People who don't like Boris are speaking against him?

    Considering Hammond and the Treasuries abject record being spoken negatively by him is about as concerning as not being liked by Simon Heffer (See Gin1138 @11:33pm)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

    Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

    Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

    If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.
    Son-of- Corbyn could do an awful lot of damage to your Nirvana in 5 years, including of course re-joining the EU without a referendum.
    Indeed he could and I would see to undo that at the next election. Democracy, do you understand the concept?
    I think so. I just preferred it when there were safeguards to reign in the excesses of for example a Corbyn government's Soviet-style programme. I guess you are ok with that, and heaven forbid it became a popular Soviet- style populist government. Blimey, if it moves they could nationalise it.
    I prefer to have democracy as the safeguard.

    What happens if a future EU-led government led to Soviet-style populist government and we can't kick it out at the ballot box?
    Ah, that old chestnut, the Federal United States of Europe!
    It's a ratchett that already exists.

    If we want to undo an EU-law how can we do so via the ballot box?
    If we want to undo a UK-law how can we do so via the ballot box?
    If you live in a safe parliamentary seat, the answer to the second question is “fuck all.” Thanks to PR, you have some input on the first.
    Wrong, in even the safest of Parliamentary seats you can change who has the seat. All you have to do is convince more electors to vote for another candidate than the incumbent Party. See for instance Scotland 2015 when 50/56 seats (including many very "safe" seats) changed hands.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    No Deal requires no bills, just refusal to extend.

    Only the process make No Deal more orderly requires bills.
    ..

    Well, it depends what you mean by 'more orderly'. A better characterisation would be 'if we're to avoid the most humoungous self-inflicted chaos ever known in peacetime in a developed economy, we will need plenty of time for legislation'.

    https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/brexit/legislation/what-legislation-is-required-for-a-no-deal-brexit/

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    eek said:

    So you will be quite happy to a have the HoC determine future laws so long as it is manned by the right sort of MPs.who can continue their business unfettered by the constraints of the EU. How will you feel when son-of-Corbyn is elected in a landslide sometime in the future? it could happen, unless your chaps are planning safeguards to ensure that never happens.

    Or are you suggesting voters take control and all primary legislation must be agreed by plebicite. If so let's have a vote on No Deal!

    Actually I'm happy to have the HoC determine future laws whether it is manned by the right or wrong sort of MPs. If it is the wrong sort of MPs we can remove them at the ballot box, something we can't do with the unelected von der Leyen.

    If son-of-Corbyn is elected I will be very disappointed and campaign to seek to see his tenure terminated and his decisions reversed at the next election. Ie democracy.
    Son-of- Corbyn could do an awful lot of damage to your Nirvana in 5 years, including of course re-joining the EU without a referendum.
    Indeed he could and I would see to undo that at the next election. Democracy, do you understand the concept?
    I think so. I just preferred it when there were safeguards to reign in the excesses of for example a Corbyn government's Soviet-style programme. I guess you are ok with that, and heaven forbid it became a popular Soviet- style populist government. Blimey, if it moves they could nationalise it.
    I prefer to have democracy as the safeguard.

    What happens if a future EU-led government led to Soviet-style populist government and we can't kick it out at the ballot box?
    Ah, that old chestnut, the Federal United States of Europe!
    It's a ratchett that already exists.

    If we want to undo an EU-law how can we do so via the ballot box?
    If we want to undo a UK-law how can we do so via the ballot box?
    If we leave the EU but wish to trade with them how do we change an EU law which thanks to us being in the EU parliament was passed by 52:48%?
    Once we've left we don't change their laws, that is their laws. Just as we don't change Japanese, or American laws. We change our own.
This discussion has been closed.