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System · June 2019

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones

Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies

Read the full story here

eek · June 2019

That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."

Philip_Thompson · June 2019

Nitpick: Farage's party are mentioned by name in the 8th paragraph.

Looks like the MP is trying to make it all about himself and the Lib Dems (Brexit), interesting tactic.

dixiedean · June 2019

What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.

Charles · June 2019

dixiedean said:
What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.

It’s probably his best shot though?

The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging

nichomar · June 2019

dixiedean said:
What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.

The man and his agent are fools. His only chance was to play the humble local servant who has achieved so much for his constituents with promises to do more in the future. He actually is not entirely honest with his description of the offense as legitimate expenditure. It wasn’t it exceeded the budget for those items and being unwilling to make up the difference from his own pocket forged, receipts.

dixiedean · June 2019

Charles said:

dixiedean said:
What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.
It’s probably his best shot though?

The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging

Looked at that way...well, fair enough.

felix · June 2019

The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.

tpfkar · June 2019

Laughing like a drain if that’s what the tories are putting out. Talking about his expenses, the threat of the Brexit party, how strong the Lib Dems are, and nothing about what he’s done as an MP or anything he wants to do for the area - not even a pitch for why Brexit will help Brecon and Radnor. Is it damage limitation already?

kinabalu · June 2019

I was tempted by the 9 on betfair for a Con hold. Just seemed a bit high in the circumstances although of course it would be a surprise if the LDs fail to take the seat.

On another matter I owe the blog an apology. My sources were wrong. Stormzy did deliver a powerful, politically charged set last night at Glasto but he did NOT come out clearly for a second referendum with Remain as an option. Has he been got at by Seumus Milne? I hope not.

another_richard · June 2019

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.

Farage is doing everything he can to stop Brexit.

He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video

What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.

Charles · June 2019

dixiedean said:

Charles said:

dixiedean said:
What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.
It’s probably his best shot though?

The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging
Looked at that way...well, fair enough.

It also allows him to lay off the blame if he loses and claim the credit if he wins. (Although I think that’s a personal thing rather than something anyone else will believe. His political career has peaked either way)

StuartDickson · June 2019

another_richard said:

StuartDickson said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
Agreed.

I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
That’s because far too many British and Irish people reckon that it is enough to just turn up at work and to be present the correct number of hours. It is unusual for them to be self-motivated and common that they only do any actual work when a boss is breathing down their neck. It brings despair to many foreign managers that are used to conscious workers.

This is one reason that Poland is soon going to zoom past Britain: they have an astonishing work ethic and are as ambitious as hell.
Care to put some numbers to that prediction ?

And from personal experience Polish people neither have an astonishing work ethic nor are ambitious as hell.

Those from the Baltic states though are much more impressive.

Small sample experience though so nothing scientific.

But my theory is that language ability is vital among immigrants - so middle class immigrants will prosper even when doing working class jobs as they still have the language ability to get on, impress and work themselves up the value chain.

Whereas working class immigrants struggle to adapt, become ghettoised and get exploited by ruthless people within their own communities.

I was not referring to emigrant Poles, but to Polish workers in Poland: they are astonishing. Great work ethic, self-motivated, fantastic managers, get-it-done culture. And the Baltic states even more so.

However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.

Charles · June 2019

StuartDickson said:

another_richard said:

StuartDickson said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
Agreed.

I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
That’s because far too many British and Irish people reckon that it is enough to just turn up at work and to be present the correct number of hours. It is unusual for them to be self-motivated and common that they only do any actual work when a boss is breathing down their neck. It brings despair to many foreign managers that are used to conscious workers.

This is one reason that Poland is soon going to zoom past Britain: they have an astonishing work ethic and are as ambitious as hell.
Care to put some numbers to that prediction ?

And from personal experience Polish people neither have an astonishing work ethic nor are ambitious as hell.

Those from the Baltic states though are much more impressive.

Small sample experience though so nothing scientific.

But my theory is that language ability is vital among immigrants - so middle class immigrants will prosper even when doing working class jobs as they still have the language ability to get on, impress and work themselves up the value chain.

Whereas working class immigrants struggle to adapt, become ghettoised and get exploited by ruthless people within their own communities.
I was not referring to emigrant Poles, but to Polish workers in Poland: they are astonishing. Great work ethic, self-motivated, fantastic managers, get-it-done culture. And the Baltic states even more so.

However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.

My impression (and it’s the same in Eastern Germany) is that's true in the cities butvthe further you go into the countryside the more rules-based they become rather than using their initiative.

IanB2 · June 2019

Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.

Zephyr · June 2019

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."

Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.

IanB2 · June 2019

another_richard said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
Farage is doing everything he can to stop Brexit.

He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video

What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.

He’s also been on the wrong end of the voting system enough times to be committed to reform. And he knows that using the current system to punish the Tories is the way to go about it.

Philip_Thompson · June 2019

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.

Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.

JackW · June 2019

I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?

AlastairMeeks · June 2019

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."

In fairness, given the willingness of many Leavers to sacrifice Northern Ireland, Scotland and economic prosperity to Brexit, that looks like a reasonable calculation.

Casino_Royale · June 2019

StuartDickson said:

another_richard said:

StuartDickson said:

Foxy said:

StuartDickson said:

Jonathan said:

DecrepitJohnL said:
OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.

The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.

The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.
Agreed.

I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.

OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
That’s because far too many British and Irish people reckon that it is enough to just turn up at work and to be present the correct number of hours. It is unusual for them to be self-motivated and common that they only do any actual work when a boss is breathing down their neck. It brings despair to many foreign managers that are used to conscious workers.

This is one reason that Poland is soon going to zoom past Britain: they have an astonishing work ethic and are as ambitious as hell.
Care to put some numbers to that prediction ?

And from personal experience Polish people neither have an astonishing work ethic nor are ambitious as hell.

Those from the Baltic states though are much more impressive.

Small sample experience though so nothing scientific.

But my theory is that language ability is vital among immigrants - so middle class immigrants will prosper even when doing working class jobs as they still have the language ability to get on, impress and work themselves up the value chain.

Whereas working class immigrants struggle to adapt, become ghettoised and get exploited by ruthless people within their own communities.
I was not referring to emigrant Poles, but to Polish workers in Poland: they are astonishing. Great work ethic, self-motivated, fantastic managers, get-it-done culture. And the Baltic states even more so.

However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.

Yes, that chimes with my experience.

initforthemoney · June 2019

another_richard said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
Farage is doing everything he can to stop Brexit.

He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video

What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.

He seems to have said that once in 18 months.

justin124 · June 2019

I doubt that the electors there will be quite as obsessed with Brexit as the Tory candidate appears to believe - indeed hope.

Zephyr · June 2019

Philip_Thompson said:

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.

Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?

MikeSmithson · June 2019

JackW said:
I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?

It will almost certainly count the following day that we saw with the recall petition

YBarddCwsc · June 2019

"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."

Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?

I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.

Sandpit · June 2019

Zephyr said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?

Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.

Gallowgate · June 2019

YBarddCwsc said:
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."

Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?

I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.

PC have not confirmed either way yet, just that talks are ongoing.

Tabman · June 2019

MikeSmithson said:

JackW said:
I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?
It will almost certainly count the following day that we saw with the recall petition

Mike - did I see you and Mrs S in the cafe by the Henley boat tents yesterday?

IanB2 · June 2019

A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.

ydoethur · June 2019

YBarddCwsc said:
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."

Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?

I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.

I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.

nichomar · June 2019

IanB2 said:
A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.

Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.

YBarddCwsc · June 2019

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."

Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?

I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.

Yes, i think that may be right.

Given a choice between a vet and someone who called the electors of Montgomeryshire selfish for opposing wind farms, the Welsh farming vote may may well go for the vet.

AndyJS · June 2019

JackW said:
I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?

It has counted during the night at most general elections since 2001.

rottenborough · June 2019

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:
A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.

It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.

noneoftheabove · June 2019

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.

What percentage of employers keep people on once they are convicted of fiddling their expenses?

rottenborough · June 2019

https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1144969874042757120

ydoethur · June 2019

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1144969874042757120

Would the decline go into reverse if they reduced it by the Enormous Member for part of Derbyshire?

AlastairMeeks · June 2019

It would be ironic if the main effect of the emergence of the Brexit party was to split the Leave vote and act as a catalyst to get Remainers to cooperate so that Remain’s control of Parliament was strengthened.

Dadge · June 2019

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:
A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.

But it's entirely their own fault. The Tories' fault for attempting to force through a Blue Brexit, when they could've made Brexit a cross-party job from the start. And Labour's fault for refusing to vote for the WA even though they have nothing really against it. When we're three years from the referendum and we're still none the wiser what on earth is going to happen, it's no wonder that more polarised positions have come to the fore.

ydoethur · June 2019

AndyJS said:

JackW said:
I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?
It has counted during the night at most general elections since 2001.

Although it's big, there aren't actually that many votes to count. I'd be surprised if they don't count overnight, but they would probably start later than most other seats.

Dadge · June 2019

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."

Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?

I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.

As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.

Richard_Tyndall · June 2019

Dadge said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:
A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.
But it's entirely their own fault. The Tories' fault for attempting to force through a Blue Brexit, when they could've made Brexit a cross-party job from the start. And Labour's fault for refusing to vote for the WA even though they have nothing really against it. When we're three years from the referendum and we're still none the wiser what on earth is going to happen, it's no wonder that more polarised positions have come to the fore.

Can't disagree with a single word of that.

rottenborough · June 2019

https://twitter.com/mehdirhasan/status/1144988100747284480

ydoethur · June 2019

Dadge said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:
"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."

Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?

I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.

And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.

Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?

Richard_Tyndall · June 2019

Zephyr said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?

No.

ydoethur · June 2019

ydoethur said:

rottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/campbellclaret/status/1144969874042757120
Would the decline go into reverse if they reduced it by the Enormous Member for part of Derbyshire?

On this subject, and apologies if it's already been posted, but this is well-worth reading (not something I often say about this journalist):

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/28/labour-corbyn-williamson-antisemitism

The most acid line must surely be:

'The preferable explanation for the situation is that Williamson owns photos of Corbyn having sex with Donalds Trump – Snr and Jnr – in a Chinese sweatshop, because the alternative is that the leadership actually thinks Williamson is worth all this.'

HYUFD · June 2019

I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

matt · June 2019

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:
A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.

And the LDs seem desperately keen to align with the Greens who are little more than socialists with a burning desire to ban everything.

ydoethur · June 2019

matt said:

rottenborough said:

nichomar said:

IanB2 said:
A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”

https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html

The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.
And the LDs seem desperately keen to align with the Greens who are little more than socialists with a burning desire to ban everything.

I thuoght they grew out of the hippie movement.

Admittedly there was a group with a definite desire to bang everything.

Zephyr · June 2019

Sandpit said:

Zephyr said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.

Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?

If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.

Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?

I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?
Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.

Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?

AlastairMeeks · June 2019

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?

AndyJS · June 2019

"Our illiberal empire of rights
Today's censoriousness perverts liberal societies and endangers democracy

John Gray"

https://unherd.com/2019/06/our-illiberal-empire-of-rights/

ydoethur · June 2019

Zephyr said:
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?

Ian Lavery was one of those banging the drum most aggressively against Davies.

The same Ian Lavery whose own union accused him of taking a redundancy payment he was not entitled to.

But of course, he's a friend of Corbyn. Integrity and consistency happen to other people.

Richard_Tyndall · June 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?

If the politicians' power has been given away, what matter if they are crooked or not.

Richard_Tyndall · June 2019

Zephyr said:

Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?

Because there was no prosecution. There has to be some way to gauge these matters to prevent spurious recalls and a criminal prosecution seem to be a good place to start. Personally I would like to see the scope of recalls extended but for now I am satisfied the system - which ultimately leaves the decision to the electorate - seems to be working.

HYUFD · June 2019

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.

The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!

ydoethur · June 2019

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!

But David Davis didn't stand, so it isn't an option.

noneoftheabove · June 2019

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!

How much do you think the electorate actually knows about these things? People hear free (good), trade (good) agreement (good). That is an over simplification but they do not know the details. The problems for Brexiteers is someone more Brexity can (and now will) always exploit a govt who does any deal of any kind with the EU.

AndyJS · June 2019

O/T

Should the Hafeez wicket have been a no ball? Looked like the wicket keeper might just have put his gloves in front of the wickets before the ball had been hit by the batsman.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47483386

justin124 · June 2019

JackW said:
I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?

In 1985 the count took place the following morning. Turnout was 79.4%.

Gallowgate · June 2019

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!

You keep saying this without any evidence.

rottenborough · June 2019

He has a point:

https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1144994536407601152

MikeSmithson · June 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.

I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.

Mexicanpete · June 2019

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!

I am not sure the country does know what it wants. The evidence, other than that which you are about to produce to prove me wrong, would seem to demonstrate this too.

By the way, did you see Johnson's model bus interview? For me it was an example of his utter contempt for his audience, namely both his immediate and wider electorate. He was making a monkey out of you and me!

rottenborough · June 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.

May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.

The ERG blocked her.

Zephyr · June 2019

Richard_Tyndall said:

Zephyr said:

Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?
Because there was no prosecution. There has to be some way to gauge these matters to prevent spurious recalls and a criminal prosecution seem to be a good place to start. Personally I would like to see the scope of recalls extended but for now I am satisfied the system - which ultimately leaves the decision to the electorate - seems to be working.

I agree with you. We have had 3 (?) and it does seem to be working. But one person being charged, another not, especially with historical crimes, can it be a bit arbitrary? Dick looked into Gove’s admission herself and concluded not enough to prosecute.

And when it comes to sex crimes, how are they going to be gauged? Politicians tend to herd together when one of there own is accused of such things. I feel there’s little to stop it becoming more spurious, the driving force behind recalls can be people as neutral as school governors, or neutral as governors of the BBC, and the number of unaffiliated voters needed for successful recall can be very small.

And it can also be cultural as much as legal, where for example most people in this country wouldn’t currently regard Goves crime on a par with Onasayna’s, the population of another country, or even this country in future, might view it differently?

HYUFD · June 2019

https://twitter.com/BillGates/status/1144995630848208898?s=20

HYUFD · June 2019

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.

The ERG blocked her.

Not all the ERG, Boris and Rees-Mogg and IDS and Raab voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, only the anti WA ERG diehards like Francois and Baker and Redwood refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3

Pulpstar · June 2019

Hope everyone is enjoying the big hot

HYUFD · June 2019

MikeSmithson said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.

No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-

JackW · June 2019

Sky Sports News - 3 place grid penalty for Hamilton

Mexicanpete · June 2019

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-

Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?

Sandpit · June 2019

Zephyr said:

Sandpit said:

Zephyr said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Zephyr said:

eek said:
That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
.
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?
Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?

You won’t find argument with me about drug laws. Drug laws work in Portugal, Amsterdam and Colorado. Drug laws also work in Bangkok, Dubai and Singapore. Drug laws don’t work in most of Europe and most of the US, who need to decide whether to legalise drugs or enforce strict laws against them.

HYUFD · June 2019

noneoftheabove said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
How much do you think the electorate actually knows about these things? People hear free (good), trade (good) agreement (good). That is an over simplification but they do not know the details. The problems for Brexiteers is someone more Brexity can (and now will) always exploit a govt who does any deal of any kind with the EU.

You will always get the No Deal hardliners and fanatics who will oppose any kind of Deal and keep voting Brexit Party.

However had Farage and Leave.EU been leading the Leave campaign rather than Boris and Vote Leave it would probably have been a narrow Remain win rather than a narrow Leave win.

IanB2 · June 2019

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.

The ERG blocked her.
Not all the ERG, Boris and Rees-Mogg and IDS and Raab voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, only the anti WA ERG diehards like Francois and Baker and Redwood refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3

It was killed as a political proposition at the first vote. Or indeed beforehand.

Sandpit · June 2019

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.

And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.

HYUFD · June 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?

I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors

williamglenn · June 2019

We could replace Trident with Theresa May’s look of disapproval.

https://twitter.com/a50challenge/status/1144919504356552704?s=21

IanB2 · June 2019

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.

HYUFD · June 2019

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.

Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.

It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

AlastairMeeks · June 2019

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors

Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?

HYUFD · June 2019

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

rottenborough said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.

The ERG blocked her.
Not all the ERG, Boris and Rees-Mogg and IDS and Raab voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, only the anti WA ERG diehards like Francois and Baker and Redwood refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3
It was killed as a political proposition at the first vote. Or indeed beforehand.

More MPs voted for the WA at MV3 than voted for any other Brexit option or revoke and with the Brady amendment the WA won a majority and more than the number of MPs who voted for EUref2 too but the EU will not budge on the backstop.

Recidivist · June 2019

I've just seen this tweet, and I think I might have a punt on the Tories to hold B&R. They'll have a new leader and presumably they've got some kind of a ground game.

https://twitter.com/StephenHarries8/status/1144974762424393733

HYUFD · June 2019

Mexicanpete said:

HYUFD said:

MikeSmithson said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard Brexit

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?

OK then a September 2018 ICM poll had a Canada type Deal the most popular Brexit option with a +20% rating, next was Norway style soft Brexit on +7%, then Chequers on +5%, then Remain on +1% and last was No Deal on -33%.

https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html

AndyJS · June 2019

O/T

The Afghans are now favourites.

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159358803

Charles · June 2019

ydoethur said:

Zephyr said:
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?
Ian Lavery was one of those banging the drum most aggressively against Davies.

The same Ian Lavery whose own union accused him of taking a redundancy payment he was not entitled to.

But of course, he's a friend of Corbyn. Integrity and consistency happen to other people.

Has HMRC considered the matter?

The first £30k of redundancy is tax free. If the union is disputing it was properly redundancy...

eek · June 2019

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.

It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland

And the DUP will do what exactly? As you've just created a Border Referendum that they will lose.

If you think Boris is going to get an FTA all I see is a VoNC that Boris will lose by 10 votes minimum...

HYUFD · June 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?

Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.

eek · June 2019

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.

But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...

HYUFD · June 2019

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.

I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.

I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out

AndyJS · June 2019

The saga continues.

"Berlin Brandenburg: The airport with half a million faults
By Chris Bowlby
BBC News"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308

Gallowgate · June 2019

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors

I'm sure you'd say the same if it was a Labour Remainer facing a by-election in the same circumstances.

YBarddCwsc · June 2019

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.

I am shocked.

I didn't realise the quotes in LibDem leaflets were real.

Especially the very deceitful leaflets that pretend not to be from the LDs but if you look at the small print, they are.

HYUFD · June 2019

eek said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errors
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.

But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...

Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or not

HYUFD · June 2019

eek said:

HYUFD said:

Sandpit said:

Gallowgate said:

HYUFD said:

felix said:
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!
You keep saying this without any evidence.
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.

It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
And the DUP will do what exactly? As you've just created a Border Referendum that they will lose.

If you think Boris is going to get an FTA all I see is a VoNC that Boris will lose by 10 votes minimum...

The DUP will lose Northern Ireland to reunification if they back a hard border anyway so tough, if they cannot win a referendum that is their problem and shows they do not represent the majority of Northern Ireland voters.

If Boris loses a VONC so be it, he can then deliver the majority he needs at a general election to pass the WA and deliver a FTA for GB

AlastairMeeks · June 2019

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.

I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out

Labour had the wit to replace the criminal.

IanB2 · June 2019

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote

If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.

I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out

If you bet now you’ll get attractive odds.

initforthemoney · June 2019

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?

Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.

rottenborough · June 2019

As the Slovenian (I think) diplomat said the other week. It is very cold outside the EU:

https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1145001583257751552

kle4 · June 2019

initforthemoney said:

AlastairMeeks said:

HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.

That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.

Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.

At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?
Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.

I voted Leave, but what would Brexit have ever done to get rid of crooked politicians? I don't remember it being a major part of any arguments.

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