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Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies
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Looks like the MP is trying to make it all about himself and the Lib Dems (Brexit), interesting tactic.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.
The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging
On another matter I owe the blog an apology. My sources were wrong. Stormzy did deliver a powerful, politically charged set last night at Glasto but he did NOT come out clearly for a second referendum with Remain as an option. Has he been got at by Seumus Milne? I hope not.
He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video
What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.
However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Given a choice between a vet and someone who called the electors of Montgomeryshire selfish for opposing wind farms, the Welsh farming vote may may well go for the vet.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/28/labour-corbyn-williamson-antisemitism
The most acid line must surely be:
'The preferable explanation for the situation is that Williamson owns photos of Corbyn having sex with Donalds Trump – Snr and Jnr – in a Chinese sweatshop, because the alternative is that the leadership actually thinks Williamson is worth all this.'
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
Admittedly there was a group with a definite desire to bang everything.
Today's censoriousness perverts liberal societies and endangers democracy
John Gray"
https://unherd.com/2019/06/our-illiberal-empire-of-rights/
The same Ian Lavery whose own union accused him of taking a redundancy payment he was not entitled to.
But of course, he's a friend of Corbyn. Integrity and consistency happen to other people.
Should the Hafeez wicket have been a no ball? Looked like the wicket keeper might just have put his gloves in front of the wickets before the ball had been hit by the batsman.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47483386
https://twitter.com/jrmaidment/status/1144994536407601152
By the way, did you see Johnson's model bus interview? For me it was an example of his utter contempt for his audience, namely both his immediate and wider electorate. He was making a monkey out of you and me!
The ERG blocked her.
And when it comes to sex crimes, how are they going to be gauged? Politicians tend to herd together when one of there own is accused of such things. I feel there’s little to stop it becoming more spurious, the driving force behind recalls can be people as neutral as school governors, or neutral as governors of the BBC, and the number of unaffiliated voters needed for successful recall can be very small.
And it can also be cultural as much as legal, where for example most people in this country wouldn’t currently regard Goves crime on a par with Onasayna’s, the population of another country, or even this country in future, might view it differently?
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
However had Farage and Leave.EU been leading the Leave campaign rather than Boris and Vote Leave it would probably have been a narrow Remain win rather than a narrow Leave win.
https://twitter.com/a50challenge/status/1144919504356552704?s=21
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
https://twitter.com/StephenHarries8/status/1144974762424393733
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html
The Afghans are now favourites.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159358803
The first £30k of redundancy is tax free. If the union is disputing it was properly redundancy...
If you think Boris is going to get an FTA all I see is a VoNC that Boris will lose by 10 votes minimum...
I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out
"Berlin Brandenburg: The airport with half a million faults
By Chris Bowlby
BBC News"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-48527308
I didn't realise the quotes in LibDem leaflets were real.
Especially the very deceitful leaflets that pretend not to be from the LDs but if you look at the small print, they are.
If Boris loses a VONC so be it, he can then deliver the majority he needs at a general election to pass the WA and deliver a FTA for GB
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1145001583257751552