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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In Brecon and Radnorshire the Remain parties are united and the big battle is between the pro-Brexit ones
Letter to B&R voters from ex-CON MP Chris Davies
Comments
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That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."0
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Nitpick: Farage's party are mentioned by name in the 8th paragraph.
Looks like the MP is trying to make it all about himself and the Lib Dems (Brexit), interesting tactic.0 -
What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.0 -
It’s probably his best shot though?dixiedean said:What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.
The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging0 -
The man and his agent are fools. His only chance was to play the humble local servant who has achieved so much for his constituents with promises to do more in the future. He actually is not entirely honest with his description of the offense as legitimate expenditure. It wasn’t it exceeded the budget for those items and being unwilling to make up the difference from his own pocket forged, receipts.dixiedean said:What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.0 -
Looked at that way...well, fair enough.Charles said:
It’s probably his best shot though?dixiedean said:What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.
The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging0 -
The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.0
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Laughing like a drain if that’s what the tories are putting out. Talking about his expenses, the threat of the Brexit party, how strong the Lib Dems are, and nothing about what he’s done as an MP or anything he wants to do for the area - not even a pitch for why Brexit will help Brecon and Radnor. Is it damage limitation already?1
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I was tempted by the 9 on betfair for a Con hold. Just seemed a bit high in the circumstances although of course it would be a surprise if the LDs fail to take the seat.
On another matter I owe the blog an apology. My sources were wrong. Stormzy did deliver a powerful, politically charged set last night at Glasto but he did NOT come out clearly for a second referendum with Remain as an option. Has he been got at by Seumus Milne? I hope not.0 -
Farage is doing everything he can to stop Brexit.felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video
What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.1 -
It also allows him to lay off the blame if he loses and claim the credit if he wins. (Although I think that’s a personal thing rather than something anyone else will believe. His political career has peaked either way)dixiedean said:
Looked at that way...well, fair enough.Charles said:
It’s probably his best shot though?dixiedean said:What does that letter say to Remain supporting Tories? (Or indeed any other Remainers?). To me it says I'm not particularly interested in your vote, as I presume you'll be voting LD.
Not sure with a split Brexit vote versus a united Remain, that making it a quasi referendum on Brexit is completely wise.
The split Brexit vote is real, the government hasn’t done much else of note, a personal character election would be, um, challenging0 -
I was not referring to emigrant Poles, but to Polish workers in Poland: they are astonishing. Great work ethic, self-motivated, fantastic managers, get-it-done culture. And the Baltic states even more so.another_richard said:
Care to put some numbers to that prediction ?StuartDickson said:
That’s because far too many British and Irish people reckon that it is enough to just turn up at work and to be present the correct number of hours. It is unusual for them to be self-motivated and common that they only do any actual work when a boss is breathing down their neck. It brings despair to many foreign managers that are used to conscious workers.Foxy said:
It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.StuartDickson said:
Agreed.Jonathan said:
11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.DecrepitJohnL said:OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.
The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.
The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
This is one reason that Poland is soon going to zoom past Britain: they have an astonishing work ethic and are as ambitious as hell.
And from personal experience Polish people neither have an astonishing work ethic nor are ambitious as hell.
Those from the Baltic states though are much more impressive.
Small sample experience though so nothing scientific.
But my theory is that language ability is vital among immigrants - so middle class immigrants will prosper even when doing working class jobs as they still have the language ability to get on, impress and work themselves up the value chain.
Whereas working class immigrants struggle to adapt, become ghettoised and get exploited by ruthless people within their own communities.
However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.0 -
My impression (and it’s the same in Eastern Germany) is that's true in the cities butvthe further you go into the countryside the more rules-based they become rather than using their initiative.StuartDickson said:
I was not referring to emigrant Poles, but to Polish workers in Poland: they are astonishing. Great work ethic, self-motivated, fantastic managers, get-it-done culture. And the Baltic states even more so.another_richard said:
Care to put some numbers to that prediction ?StuartDickson said:
That’s because far too many British and Irish people reckon that it is enough to just turn up at work and to be present the correct number of hours. It is unusual for them to be self-motivated and common that they only do any actual work when a boss is breathing down their neck. It brings despair to many foreign managers that are used to conscious workers.Foxy said:
It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.StuartDickson said:
Agreed.Jonathan said:
11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.DecrepitJohnL said:OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.
The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.
The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
This is one reason that Poland is soon going to zoom past Britain: they have an astonishing work ethic and are as ambitious as hell.
And from personal experience Polish people neither have an astonishing work ethic nor are ambitious as hell.
Those from the Baltic states though are much more impressive.
Small sample experience though so nothing scientific.
But my theory is that language ability is vital among immigrants - so middle class immigrants will prosper even when doing working class jobs as they still have the language ability to get on, impress and work themselves up the value chain.
Whereas working class immigrants struggle to adapt, become ghettoised and get exploited by ruthless people within their own communities.
However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.0 -
Nice of the Tories to help the LibDems squeeze the Labour vote.0
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Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.0 -
He’s also been on the wrong end of the voting system enough times to be committed to reform. And he knows that using the current system to punish the Tories is the way to go about it.another_richard said:
Farage is doing everything he can to stop Brexit.felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video
What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.0 -
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.Zephyr said:
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.0 -
I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?0
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In fairness, given the willingness of many Leavers to sacrifice Northern Ireland, Scotland and economic prosperity to Brexit, that looks like a reasonable calculation.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
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Yes, that chimes with my experience.StuartDickson said:
I was not referring to emigrant Poles, but to Polish workers in Poland: they are astonishing. Great work ethic, self-motivated, fantastic managers, get-it-done culture. And the Baltic states even more so.another_richard said:
Care to put some numbers to that prediction ?StuartDickson said:
That’s because far too many British and Irish people reckon that it is enough to just turn up at work and to be present the correct number of hours. It is unusual for them to be self-motivated and common that they only do any actual work when a boss is breathing down their neck. It brings despair to many foreign managers that are used to conscious workers.Foxy said:
It is worth noting that despite Britain's long hours culture, productivity is considerably better in the shorter hours of Europe.StuartDickson said:
Agreed.Jonathan said:
11 hour days are unsustainable and holidays are a good thing.DecrepitJohnL said:OT first world problems and the shortage of GPs.
The parent of a GP has written to the Telegraph to say their GP daughter is exhausted working 11-hour days so will scale back to three days a week.
The effect is rather spoiled by adding she has managed only two holidays this year.
I work (not very hard) approx 35 hours a week and have 9 weeks holiday. I cope.
OECD Chart: GDP per hour worked, Total, 2010=100, Annual, 2010 – 2018
This is one reason that Poland is soon going to zoom past Britain: they have an astonishing work ethic and are as ambitious as hell.
And from personal experience Polish people neither have an astonishing work ethic nor are ambitious as hell.
Those from the Baltic states though are much more impressive.
Small sample experience though so nothing scientific.
But my theory is that language ability is vital among immigrants - so middle class immigrants will prosper even when doing working class jobs as they still have the language ability to get on, impress and work themselves up the value chain.
Whereas working class immigrants struggle to adapt, become ghettoised and get exploited by ruthless people within their own communities.
However, all is not glossy and shiny. They tend to be sexist as hell and blatant racism is commonplace.0 -
He seems to have said that once in 18 months.another_richard said:
Farage is doing everything he can to stop Brexit.felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
He's been calling for a second referendum for 18 months:
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/video/2018/jan/11/nigel-farage-backs-second-brexit-referendum-video
What he wants is an endless Brexit campaign but never any Brexit.0 -
I doubt that the electors there will be quite as obsessed with Brexit as the Tory candidate appears to believe - indeed hope.0
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Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?Philip_Thompson said:
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.Zephyr said:
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.0 -
It will almost certainly count the following day that we saw with the recall petitionJackW said:I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?
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"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.0 -
Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.Zephyr said:
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?Philip_Thompson said:
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.Zephyr said:
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.0 -
PC have not confirmed either way yet, just that talks are ongoing.YBarddCwsc said:"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.0 -
Mike - did I see you and Mrs S in the cafe by the Henley boat tents yesterday?MikeSmithson said:
It will almost certainly count the following day that we saw with the recall petitionJackW said:I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?
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A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.0 -
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.YBarddCwsc said:"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.0 -
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.IanB2 said:A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.0 -
Yes, i think that may be right.ydoethur said:
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.YBarddCwsc said:"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
Given a choice between a vet and someone who called the electors of Montgomeryshire selfish for opposing wind farms, the Welsh farming vote may may well go for the vet.
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It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.nichomar said:
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.IanB2 said:A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
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What percentage of employers keep people on once they are convicted of fiddling their expenses?Zephyr said:
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.0 -
Would the decline go into reverse if they reduced it by the Enormous Member for part of Derbyshire?rottenborough said:0 -
It would be ironic if the main effect of the emergence of the Brexit party was to split the Leave vote and act as a catalyst to get Remainers to cooperate so that Remain’s control of Parliament was strengthened.1
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But it's entirely their own fault. The Tories' fault for attempting to force through a Blue Brexit, when they could've made Brexit a cross-party job from the start. And Labour's fault for refusing to vote for the WA even though they have nothing really against it. When we're three years from the referendum and we're still none the wiser what on earth is going to happen, it's no wonder that more polarised positions have come to the fore.rottenborough said:
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.nichomar said:
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.IanB2 said:A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.1 -
Although it's big, there aren't actually that many votes to count. I'd be surprised if they don't count overnight, but they would probably start later than most other seats.AndyJS said:
It has counted during the night at most general elections since 2001.JackW said:I unsure of the norm at a general election but as B&R is a vast rural constituency will the count take place overnight or the morning after?
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As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.ydoethur said:
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.YBarddCwsc said:"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.0 -
Can't disagree with a single word of that.Dadge said:
But it's entirely their own fault. The Tories' fault for attempting to force through a Blue Brexit, when they could've made Brexit a cross-party job from the start. And Labour's fault for refusing to vote for the WA even though they have nothing really against it. When we're three years from the referendum and we're still none the wiser what on earth is going to happen, it's no wonder that more polarised positions have come to the fore.rottenborough said:
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.nichomar said:
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.IanB2 said:A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.0 -
And I would not have said either of those was a certainty.Dadge said:
As long as at least one of them votes LD, and as long as more of them vote LD than Tory, the strategy will be successful.ydoethur said:
I would have thought actually there's a non-trivial chance in that seat that many would vote Tory.YBarddCwsc said:"A striking feature of the August 1st Brecon & Radnorshire by-election is that it appears that all the pro-Remain parties including the Greens and PC have decided to stand aside and get behind the Liberal Democrats...."
Do we know that? I don't believe that has been confirmed?
I also think it is a crass mistake to think PC voters will just line up with the LibDems. Most simply won't vote.
Put it another way - if you don't vote Liberal Democrat in an ordinary election in a marginal seat they frequently win, why would you in a by-election?0 -
No.Zephyr said:
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?Philip_Thompson said:
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.Zephyr said:
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.0 -
On this subject, and apologies if it's already been posted, but this is well-worth reading (not something I often say about this journalist):ydoethur said:
Would the decline go into reverse if they reduced it by the Enormous Member for part of Derbyshire?rottenborough said:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/28/labour-corbyn-williamson-antisemitism
The most acid line must surely be:
'The preferable explanation for the situation is that Williamson owns photos of Corbyn having sex with Donalds Trump – Snr and Jnr – in a Chinese sweatshop, because the alternative is that the leadership actually thinks Williamson is worth all this.'0 -
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
And the LDs seem desperately keen to align with the Greens who are little more than socialists with a burning desire to ban everything.rottenborough said:
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.nichomar said:
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.IanB2 said:A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.0 -
I thuoght they grew out of the hippie movement.matt said:
And the LDs seem desperately keen to align with the Greens who are little more than socialists with a burning desire to ban everything.rottenborough said:
It is a very depressing state of affairs that both main parties are in the hands of maniacs and extremist purists.nichomar said:
Well she may well have taken the first step to eventually leaving when she reads the comments. I’m not sure where a centrist ex Tory leaver goes though.IanB2 said:A young woman writes: ”I attended a Conservative Association event recently, and I was the only woman among a dozen retired and reckless No Deal Brexiteers. ”
https://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2019/06/joanne-bartley-has-our-party-gone-mad-no-deal-brexiteers-are-acting-like-pro-corbyn-extremists.html
The rabid comments beneath from ConHome readers show that her hopes are forlorn.
Admittedly there was a group with a definite desire to bang everything.0 -
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?Sandpit said:
Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.Zephyr said:
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?Philip_Thompson said:
Recall can't be done at the drop of a hat. Many of your examples it couldn't be used for. Cocaine use with no prosecution for example.Zephyr said:
Yes, this is exactly the question to ask.eek said:That letter to me screams "I'm a convicted crook but hopefully Brexit is more important than my behaviour."
Does the recall law enhance democracy empowering ordinary voters or merely Americanise our politics further handing bitter, narrow and partisan politics (within and between parties) another hatchet with which to draw blood?
If anything, as well as political parties, it hands power to the media. How Gove (whilst candidate in an election) was “tried” in the media for admitted cocaine use whilst Boris remained silent is good example of how partial such things can be.
Ultimately success of recall law will hinge upon fairly equating between crimes, I suspect someone doing a Huhne or Onasanya either may not necessarily be recalled, or recall for one crime sets precedent whilst those committing clearly worse crimes escape. How do you compare the Onasanya crime against recent cocaine use for example, where hypocrisy how legislator is voting and policy forming clearly at odds with their own lifestyle? Also a comparison between recent and historic cocaine use, or same cocaine use that did or did not result in a prosecution, or where backbench MP and senior Cabinet or party leader commit much the same crime, will everyone be dealt with fairly or unevenly?
I’m not convinced recall was really needed or work well in British parliamentary democracy, a Tory win in this brexit by-election will categorically prove that.
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You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
"Our illiberal empire of rights
Today's censoriousness perverts liberal societies and endangers democracy
John Gray"
https://unherd.com/2019/06/our-illiberal-empire-of-rights/0 -
Ian Lavery was one of those banging the drum most aggressively against Davies.Zephyr said:Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?
The same Ian Lavery whose own union accused him of taking a redundancy payment he was not entitled to.
But of course, he's a friend of Corbyn. Integrity and consistency happen to other people.0 -
If the politicians' power has been given away, what matter if they are crooked or not.AlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
Because there was no prosecution. There has to be some way to gauge these matters to prevent spurious recalls and a criminal prosecution seem to be a good place to start. Personally I would like to see the scope of recalls extended but for now I am satisfied the system - which ultimately leaves the decision to the electorate - seems to be working.Zephyr said:
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?1 -
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
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But David Davis didn't stand, so it isn't an option.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
0 -
How much do you think the electorate actually knows about these things? People hear free (good), trade (good) agreement (good). That is an over simplification but they do not know the details. The problems for Brexiteers is someone more Brexity can (and now will) always exploit a govt who does any deal of any kind with the EU.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
0 -
O/T
Should the Hafeez wicket have been a no ball? Looked like the wicket keeper might just have put his gloves in front of the wickets before the ball had been hit by the batsman.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/live/cricket/47483386-1 -
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
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0
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I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
0 -
I am not sure the country does know what it wants. The evidence, other than that which you are about to produce to prove me wrong, would seem to demonstrate this too.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
By the way, did you see Johnson's model bus interview? For me it was an example of his utter contempt for his audience, namely both his immediate and wider electorate. He was making a monkey out of you and me!
0 -
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The ERG blocked her.0 -
I agree with you. We have had 3 (?) and it does seem to be working. But one person being charged, another not, especially with historical crimes, can it be a bit arbitrary? Dick looked into Gove’s admission herself and concluded not enough to prosecute.Richard_Tyndall said:
Because there was no prosecution. There has to be some way to gauge these matters to prevent spurious recalls and a criminal prosecution seem to be a good place to start. Personally I would like to see the scope of recalls extended but for now I am satisfied the system - which ultimately leaves the decision to the electorate - seems to be working.Zephyr said:
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?
And when it comes to sex crimes, how are they going to be gauged? Politicians tend to herd together when one of there own is accused of such things. I feel there’s little to stop it becoming more spurious, the driving force behind recalls can be people as neutral as school governors, or neutral as governors of the BBC, and the number of unaffiliated voters needed for successful recall can be very small.
And it can also be cultural as much as legal, where for example most people in this country wouldn’t currently regard Goves crime on a par with Onasayna’s, the population of another country, or even this country in future, might view it differently?
0 -
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Not all the ERG, Boris and Rees-Mogg and IDS and Raab voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, only the anti WA ERG diehards like Francois and Baker and Redwood refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3rottenborough said:
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The ERG blocked her.0 -
Hope everyone is enjoying the big hot0
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No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard BrexitMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-0 -
Sky Sports News - 3 place grid penalty for Hamilton0
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Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?HYUFD said:
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard BrexitMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
0 -
You won’t find argument with me about drug laws. Drug laws work in Portugal, Amsterdam and Colorado. Drug laws also work in Bangkok, Dubai and Singapore. Drug laws don’t work in most of Europe and most of the US, who need to decide whether to legalise drugs or enforce strict laws against them.Zephyr said:
Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?Sandpit said:
Onasanya’s crime was right at the top of the offences for which an MP should be recalled - she was found guilty of an offence against the rule of law itself.Zephyr said:
Exactly. But is it not a worse crime than something someone is recalled for? So where’s the evenhandedness?Philip_Thompson said:0 -
You will always get the No Deal hardliners and fanatics who will oppose any kind of Deal and keep voting Brexit Party.noneoftheabove said:
How much do you think the electorate actually knows about these things? People hear free (good), trade (good) agreement (good). That is an over simplification but they do not know the details. The problems for Brexiteers is someone more Brexity can (and now will) always exploit a govt who does any deal of any kind with the EU.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
However had Farage and Leave.EU been leading the Leave campaign rather than Boris and Vote Leave it would probably have been a narrow Remain win rather than a narrow Leave win.0 -
It was killed as a political proposition at the first vote. Or indeed beforehand.HYUFD said:
Not all the ERG, Boris and Rees-Mogg and IDS and Raab voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, only the anti WA ERG diehards like Francois and Baker and Redwood refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3rottenborough said:
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The ERG blocked her.0 -
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
1 -
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errorsAlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
We could replace Trident with Theresa May’s look of disapproval.
https://twitter.com/a50challenge/status/1144919504356552704?s=210 -
HYUFD said:
I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.0 -
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.Sandpit said:
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland0 -
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?HYUFD said:
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errorsAlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
More MPs voted for the WA at MV3 than voted for any other Brexit option or revoke and with the Brady amendment the WA won a majority and more than the number of MPs who voted for EUref2 too but the EU will not budge on the backstop.IanB2 said:
It was killed as a political proposition at the first vote. Or indeed beforehand.HYUFD said:
Not all the ERG, Boris and Rees-Mogg and IDS and Raab voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3, only the anti WA ERG diehards like Francois and Baker and Redwood refused to vote for the Withdrawal Agreement even at MV3rottenborough said:
May's WA allowed the gateway to be opened to the next stage, which could well be a massive Canada-style FTA.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
The ERG blocked her.0 -
I've just seen this tweet, and I think I might have a punt on the Tories to hold B&R. They'll have a new leader and presumably they've got some kind of a ground game.
https://twitter.com/StephenHarries8/status/11449747624243937331 -
OK then a September 2018 ICM poll had a Canada type Deal the most popular Brexit option with a +20% rating, next was Norway style soft Brexit on +7%, then Chequers on +5%, then Remain on +1% and last was No Deal on -33%.Mexicanpete said:
Clutching at straws with a 2016 opinion poll aren't you?HYUFD said:
No need to cherry pick, in August 2016 soon after the referendum and the Leave win Yougov found that 50% of voters thought a Canada style Free Trade Agreement with the EU would be a good option for the UK, compared to 35% for a Norway style soft Brexit and staying in the EU and 32% for a No Deal hard BrexitMikeSmithson said:
I'm sure that HYUFD can cherry pick some data to back up his assertion.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2016/08/18/majority-people-think-freedom-movement-fair-price-
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/libleave_brexit_spectrum.html0 -
0
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Has HMRC considered the matter?ydoethur said:
Ian Lavery was one of those banging the drum most aggressively against Davies.Zephyr said:Absolutely. I agree there is no greater crime than hypocrisy, except maybe the refusal to uphold values because one may oneself have fallen short of them. Is this epidemic of knife crime fuelled by demand for cocaine as police chiefs ask us to believe disputed anymore? Or that as conservative politicians ask us to believe, middle-class professionals push to liberalise drugs laws to deal with their own guilt over taking drugs? We agree Onasanya’s crime and hypocrisy is right at the top of the list, but why don’t you have a politician telling us drug laws are there for a reason, publicly legislating to that whilst privately floating those laws, at the top of the list alongside Onasanya?
The same Ian Lavery whose own union accused him of taking a redundancy payment he was not entitled to.
But of course, he's a friend of Corbyn. Integrity and consistency happen to other people.
The first £30k of redundancy is tax free. If the union is disputing it was properly redundancy...0 -
And the DUP will do what exactly? As you've just created a Border Referendum that they will lose.HYUFD said:
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.Sandpit said:
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
If you think Boris is going to get an FTA all I see is a VoNC that Boris will lose by 10 votes minimum...1 -
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.AlastairMeeks said:
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?HYUFD said:
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errorsAlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
0 -
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...HYUFD said:
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.AlastairMeeks said:
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?HYUFD said:
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errorsAlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote1 -
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.IanB2 said:HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out0 -
The saga continues.
"Berlin Brandenburg: The airport with half a million faults
By Chris Bowlby
BBC News"
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-485273080 -
I'm sure you'd say the same if it was a Labour Remainer facing a by-election in the same circumstances.HYUFD said:
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errorsAlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
I am shocked.IanB2 said:HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I didn't realise the quotes in LibDem leaflets were real.
Especially the very deceitful leaflets that pretend not to be from the LDs but if you look at the small print, they are.0 -
Well that is up to your company, it depends whether a court finds the dismissal reasonable or noteek said:
But if he had been employed by my company he would have been fired for Gross Misconduct...HYUFD said:
Not if they had been jailed no, Davies was not jailed unlike Onasanya.AlastairMeeks said:
Papal indulgences for Brexit reliability. Just what crime would you see as more important than Brexit? Would you have campaigned for the former MP for Peterborough if she had been a Brexit-supporting Leaver?HYUFD said:
I think Brexit is more important than trying to get rid of hard working local MPs who have faced their punishment for any expenses errorsAlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
The DUP will lose Northern Ireland to reunification if they back a hard border anyway so tough, if they cannot win a referendum that is their problem and shows they do not represent the majority of Northern Ireland voters.eek said:
And the DUP will do what exactly? As you've just created a Border Referendum that they will lose.HYUFD said:
Wrong, I have spoken to a number of Tory members on this and they would be fine with it on the whole, bar a few No Deal or Remain diehards.Sandpit said:
And with the assumption that the Conservative and Unionist Party will be happy to throw NI under the bus to achieve it. “FTA for GB” is code for a border in the Irish Sea. It’s not happening.Gallowgate said:
You keep saying this without any evidence.HYUFD said:
The country want a a Canada style FTA for GB, it just needs a pro Brexit PM who believes in that vision and who can win a majority and deliver it. We all know who that might be!felix said:The refusal of the BXP to even consider a tactical withdrawal reflects what we saw within the Tory party over the Withdrawal Agreement earlier in the year. A total refusal to compromise which is completely at odds with electoral reality. For remainers this can only be good news. As a lifelong Tory who prefers Remain but would have accepted the Referendum result I find it all very sad. I think that the country would eventually have accepted a modest Brexit. I'm unclear that remain will heal the divisions we now have. My sole consolation is that I don't live in the UK anymore.
It would not be throwing Northern Ireland voters under a bus either, they could decide on the backstop by referendum but given Remain won the vote in Northern Ireland not Leave and the DUP now represent only about a third of Northern Ireland voters now and as the European elections showed the Alliance Party and Sinn Fein represent the other two thirds it is pretty clear a majority of Northern Ireland voters would vote for the backstop and to reject a hard border with the Republic of Ireland
If you think Boris is going to get an FTA all I see is a VoNC that Boris will lose by 10 votes minimum...
If Boris loses a VONC so be it, he can then deliver the majority he needs at a general election to pass the WA and deliver a FTA for GB0 -
Labour had the wit to replace the criminal.HYUFD said:
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.IanB2 said:HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out0 -
If you bet now you’ll get attractive odds.HYUFD said:
I expect the LDs will squeeze some of the Labour vote but not all of it, especially the working class Leave bit of it.IanB2 said:HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning Leave voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around), in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid though and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote
If I were the LibDem agent I would be taking some quotes out of that MP’s letter and using them again and again aimed at Labour voters.
I think the Tories could hold it by a few hundred as Labour held Peterborough, if they also get their vote out0 -
Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0 -
As the Slovenian (I think) diplomat said the other week. It is very cold outside the EU:
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/11450015832577515520 -
I voted Leave, but what would Brexit have ever done to get rid of crooked politicians? I don't remember it being a major part of any arguments.initforthemoney said:
Getting rid of crooked politicians is central to the appeal of Brexit.AlastairMeeks said:
You think Brexit is more important than getting rid of crooked politicians?HYUFD said:I don't think this is quite true, Labour is still standing and while Corbyn still backs Brexit most Labour MPs back Remain and EUref2.
That is a very good letter by Chris Davies warning voters in a pro Brexit area (Powys was 52% Leave and the Brexit Party won it in the European Parliament elections) how Peterborough showed that voting for the Brexit Party could allow a pro Remain candidate through the middle.
Indeed while in Peterborough it was the the Brexit Party that cost the Tories the seat (or you could argue the other way around) in Brecon it could be Labour that costs the LDs the seat.
At the 2017 general election the LDs and Plaid combined got 32% in Brecon and Radnor (the Greens did not stand), well behind the Tories 48.6%. Add in Labour's 17.7% to the 32% for the LDs and Plaid and you get to 49.7% ie above the Tories' vote0
