Predictably poor figures for Corbyn. The country just don't want a 70's tribute act. Certainly those who were alive first time round dont. I just hope he reads the polls and gets the message. Thornberry is the perfect mixture of Nurse Ratched and Nicola Sturgeon. That should cover all bases
According to Ipsos-Mori only 17% very likely to vote Conservative if Hunt were leader and only 19% if Boris were leader so poor compared to the 26% among those certain to vote (9/10) Conservative at present.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
Ipsos Mori actually had 36% likely to vote Tory under Boris and 32% likely to vote Tory under Hunt so both significantly higher than the 26% currently voting Tory.
21% of current non Tory voters are likely to vote Tory under Boris and 14% under Hunt
MORI’s own summary of its poll finding: ”There is little evidence that either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt would make much difference to how likely people would be to consider voting Conservative.”
Believe the official report - not the Comical HYali spin!
Just read it
Ipsos Mori has 17% of 2017 Labour voters likely to vote Tory if Boris is Tory leader and 12% likely to vote Tory if Hunt is Tory leader (p36 and 38 of the tables)
Ipsos Mori also has 12% of 2017 LD voters likely to vote Tory if Boris or Hunt are Tory leader.
So in total 29% of 2017 Labour or LD voters are likely to vote for a Boris led Tory Party while only 15% of current Tory voters are unlikely to vote for a Boris led Tory Party.
With Hunt 14% of 2017 Labour or LD voters are likely to vote for a Hunt led Tories and only 11% of current Tory voters are unlikely to vote for a Hunt led Tories
I have to expose this complete abuse of maths, even knowing that MikeL has allready called it out.
One recent poll has the LDs on 18% (and that is after don't knows have been excluded). 12% of 18% is 2.88%
12% of LD voters is nowhere near 12% of voters!
This is something a GCSE maths pupil should be getting right.
Have you not heard of positive optimistic maths? Or alternative maths? The ERG and HYUFD have their own counting system and anyone else is peddling more fake maths.
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Interesting, even on the night on 97 as the results came in you never really thought that the Tories would never win an election again. It was a pasting, but it wasn't a wipe out. You could even imagine them getting in at the next election.
Now, even though they are literally the current government it is very easy to think that they may not be on the scene much longer.
Good luck Labour. You have a complete albatross as leader. Poison on the doorsteps.
But he has his integrity and he won last time.
So it's all ok.
To be fair to Corbyn he has 4% more satisfied with him than Foot, 1% more satisfied with him than was the case with IDS and Hague had only 2% more satisfied with him than Corbyn, even if Corbyn has more dissatisfied with him than Foot, IDS and Hague and Ed Miliband
Interestingly I think only IDS and Corbyn had equal or less frontbench experience to Bozo when they assumed the role
Boris was Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London for 8 years, a bigger executive position than running some countries
Don't be ridiculous Mayor of London is a vanity position. Well suited to Boris Johnson. How long was he Foreign Sec for again? What is he most remembered for?
Mayor of London isn't a vanity position. Boris did a decent job. Khan is doing ok, but he isn't making it look easy.
If it's a vanity position, who exactly do I blame for continually raising my tube fares?
Hmm, good question. The unions? You could blame the rest of the population who are less willing to subsidise your travel needs perhaps?
Somebody is making the decision to raise fares. If it isn't Khan, who is it?
12% for the Brexit party? That's seriously out of line with most other recent polls. That doesn't mean it's wrong but it does mean that it needs to be treated with care.
I'm not altogether surprised at the fallback - they've had hardly any publicity for a few weeks, what with the Boris Show and all. That low share could easily rise quickly depending on circumstances. What is surprising is that the Con+Brexit+Ukip share is under 40%. If that's correct, it suggests that even though some Tories have switched back from Farage, another bunch of Tories have switched to the LibDems. This could be a worrying precursor to a BJ leadership - that Remainer/Wet Tories are unwilling to vote for him.
Tories in the lead?? It’s a bit like the downfall parody. What the hell do they have to do? The self destruct button has quit from overuse, May is a walking parody of a PM, Tories spend their time taking lumps out of each other, Boris ducks and dives every question or interview and they lead.
The tradition is that the Tories are the stupid party. Labour look like winners in that competition if nothing else.
12% for the Brexit party? That's seriously out of line with most other recent polls. That doesn't mean it's wrong but it does mean that it needs to be treated with care.
I'm not altogether surprised at the fallback - they've had hardly any publicity for a few weeks, what with the Boris Show and all. That low share could easily rise quickly depending on circumstances. What is surprising is that the Con+Brexit+Ukip share is under 40%. If that's correct, it suggests that even though some Tories have switched back from Farage, another bunch of Tories have switched to the LibDems. This could be a worrying precursor to a BJ leadership - that Remainer/Wet Tories are unwilling to vote for him.
12% for the Brexit party? That's seriously out of line with most other recent polls. That doesn't mean it's wrong but it does mean that it needs to be treated with care.
I'm not altogether surprised at the fallback - they've had hardly any publicity for a few weeks, what with the Boris Show and all. That low share could easily rise quickly depending on circumstances. What is surprising is that the Con+Brexit+Ukip share is under 40%. If that's correct, it suggests that even though some Tories have switched back from Farage, another bunch of Tories have switched to the LibDems. This could be a worrying precursor to a BJ leadership - that Remainer/Wet Tories are unwilling to vote for him.
True. I'm just speculating how the Mori poll *might* be correct. Other polls have Farage on 20%+ but it has been thought that polls are overstating BxP support.
Btw was down for the England Australia game. I really can’t see anyone other than Australia winning the tournament. Their fielding is just miles ahead of anyone else and their bowlers bite.
London seemed to be buzzing as usual. A few more sales on than usual perhaps. The politicians are doing their best to screw the country but I saw little sign that the country is taking their efforts seriously.
Corbyn as PM with a significant minority government with say 150 Lib Dems and Scot Nats would be ideal. It could also be a very popular government.
The UK without it's head half way up Trumps backside would certainly be popular and the only leader guaranteed to give no quarter to Trumps America is one led by Corbyn
Tories in the lead?? It’s a bit like the downfall parody. What the hell do they have to do? The self destruct button has quit from overuse, May is a walking parody of a PM, Tories spend their time taking lumps out of each other, Boris ducks and dives every question or interview and they lead.
The tradition is that the Tories are the stupid party. Labour look like winners in that competition if nothing else.
In the lead does not matter, it is suggesting around 240 seats, probably an overestimate once you get anti-tory tactical voting across the south.
They are only vaguely interested in a third of the vote, so like Corbyn need a miracle and weak opponent to have any chance of a majority.
A landslide is on offer for whichever of the Tories or Labour regains their sanity first.
Ruth Davidson was on the (much delayed) plane last night. I always get a shock when I see her in person. She is very small. It’s a lot less obvious on the TV.
Tories in the lead?? It’s a bit like the downfall parody. What the hell do they have to do? The self destruct button has quit from overuse, May is a walking parody of a PM, Tories spend their time taking lumps out of each other, Boris ducks and dives every question or interview and they lead.
The tradition is that the Tories are the stupid party. Labour look like winners in that competition if nothing else.
In the lead does not matter, it is suggesting around 240 seats, probably an overestimate once you get anti-tory tactical voting across the south.
They are only vaguely interested in a third of the vote, so like Corbyn need a miracle and weak opponent to have any chance of a majority.
A landslide is on offer for whichever of the Tories or Labour regains their sanity first.
It’s wrong to say that it doesn’t matter. It may not be enough but better in the lead than 4th like they were in the Euros.
According to Ipsos-Mori only 17% very likely to vote Conservative if Hunt were leader and only 19% if Boris were leader so poor compared to the 26% among those certain to vote (9/10) Conservative at present.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
Ipsos Mori actually had 36% likely to vote Tory under Boris and 32% likely to vote Tory under Hunt so both significantly higher than the 26% currently voting Tory.
21% of current non Tory voters are likely to vote Tory under Boris and 14% under Hunt
MORI’s own summary of its poll finding: ”There is little evidence that either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt would make much difference to how likely people would be to consider voting Conservative.”
Believe the official report - not the Comical HYali spin!
Just read it
Ipsos Mori has 17% of 2017 Labour voters likely to vote Tory if Boris is Tory leader and 12% likely to vote Tory if Hunt is Tory leader (p36 and 38 of the tables)
Ipsos Mori also has 12% of 2017 LD voters likely to vote Tory if Boris or Hunt are Tory leader.
So in total 29% of 2017 Labour or LD voters are likely to vote for a Boris led Tory Party while only 15% of current Tory voters are unlikely to vote for a Boris led Tory Party.
With Hunt 14% of 2017 Labour or LD voters are likely to vote for a Hunt led Tories and only 11% of current Tory voters are unlikely to vote for a Hunt led Tories
I htting right.
Have you not heard of positive optimistic maths? Or alternative maths? The ERG and HYUFD have their own counting system and anyone else is peddling more fake maths.
Bistromatics, isn't it?
"Bistromathics itself is simply a revolutionary new way of understanding the behaviour of numbers. Just as Albert Einstein's general relativity theory observed that space was not an absolute but depended on the observer's movement in space, and that time was not an absolute, but depended on the observer's movement in time, so it is now realized that numbers are not absolute, but depend on the observer's movement in restaurants." [HHGTTG - D Adams.]
12% for the Brexit party? That's seriously out of line with most other recent polls. That doesn't mean it's wrong but it does mean that it needs to be treated with care.
I'm not altogether surprised at the fallback - they've had hardly any publicity for a few weeks, what with the Boris Show and all. That low share could easily rise quickly depending on circumstances. What is surprising is that the Con+Brexit+Ukip share is under 40%. If that's correct, it suggests that even though some Tories have switched back from Farage, another bunch of Tories have switched to the LibDems. This could be a worrying precursor to a BJ leadership - that Remainer/Wet Tories are unwilling to vote for him.
True. I'm just speculating how the Mori poll *might* be correct. Other polls have Farage on 20%+ but it has been thought that polls are overstating BxP support.
The moving average has Tories on 22.3% , Lab on 24.5%, LD on 18.6% and Brex on 21.1%.
It gives:
Con 151 Lab 246 LD 65 Brex 115 SNP 51 PC 3 Grn 1 NI 18
I'm the one who christened Theresa May the pound shop Gordon Brown when the likes of Mortimer and other Leavers were declaring Theresa May the reincarnation of Thatcher and Boudica.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
Remain leaders, once again, have been way overplaying their hand in other words. Either because they're being deliberately mendacious, or because they're stupid enough to believe their own publicity.
12% for the Brexit party? That's seriously out of line with most other recent polls. That doesn't mean it's wrong but it does mean that it needs to be treated with care.
I'm not altogether surprised at the fallback - they've had hardly any publicity for a few weeks, what with the Boris Show and all. That low share could easily rise quickly depending on circumstances. What is surprising is that the Con+Brexit+Ukip share is under 40%. If that's correct, it suggests that even though some Tories have switched back from Farage, another bunch of Tories have switched to the LibDems. This could be a worrying precursor to a BJ leadership - that Remainer/Wet Tories are unwilling to vote for him.
In the small print Mori makes the point that they don’t prompt for BXP, and whilst they are currently reviewing this they kept the previous format for comparability with the previous poll. Expecting the former Tories to volunteer support for BXP when they are out of the news probably means that the BXP poll is somewhat understated and the Tories somewhat overstated, which is certainly how it appears compared to other recent findings.
Predictably poor figures for Corbyn. The country just don't want a 70's tribute act. Certainly those who were alive first time round dont. I just hope he reads the polls and gets the message. Thornberry is the perfect mixture of Nurse Ratched and Nicola Sturgeon. That should cover all bases
Those figures are a fairly shocking indictment of him, aren't they? I mean, you can imagine somebody being less fit to be PM than Jeremy Hunt, even though it requires some work.
But being less fit than Boris Johnsonby an 18 point margin?
Predictably poor figures for Corbyn. The country just don't want a 70's tribute act. Certainly those who were alive first time round dont. I just hope he reads the polls and gets the message. Thornberry is the perfect mixture of Nurse Ratched and Nicola Sturgeon. That should cover all bases
I reckon it’s more due to their remaining on the fence, which has both hit the party’s credibility and undone Corbyn’s image as someone who sticks to his principles even if unpopular.
Corbyn as PM with a significant minority government with say 150 Lib Dems and Scot Nats would be ideal. It could also be a very popular government.
The UK without it's head half way up Trumps backside would certainly be popular and the only leader guaranteed to give no quarter to Trumps America is one led by Corbyn
No it wouldn't, a Corbyn minority government reliant on the LDs and SNP would be a weak government riven by division seeking to reverse the Brexit most British voters voted for and facing a strong Boris led Tory opposition which would likely have won a majority of seats in England
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Couldn't get much worse in Scotland .... They got zero seats in 1997.
It could. A Unionist wipe out in Scotland with the SNP on 59 seats would be the cherry on the parfait.
Most polls still have the Tories winning at least 3 seats in Scotland, Labour at least 1 and the LDs even gaining seats to reach 5 so the SNP are unlikely to reach 59 or even the 56 they got in 2016 even if they recover some of the losses from 2017
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
Remain leaders, once again, have been way overplaying their hand in other words. Either because they're being deliberately mendacious, or because they're stupid enough to believe their own publicity.
But Project Fear worked so well the last time. Why wouldn’t they try it again? Get the soon to be departed Chancellor to veto any preparation spending for good measure. Achieve the worst possible Brexit (no deal with a pissed off EU) and then say, “see, we told you”.
According to Ipsos-Mori only 17% very likely to vote Conservative if Hunt were leader and only 19% if Boris were leader so poor compared to the 26% among those certain to vote (9/10) Conservative at present.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
Ipsos Mori actually had 36% likely to vote Tory under Boris and 32% likely to vote Tory under Hunt so both significantly higher than the 26% currently voting Tory.
21% of current non Tory voters are likely to vote Tory under Boris and 14% under Hunt
MORI’s own summary of its poll finding: ”There is little evidence that either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt would make much difference to how likely people would be to consider voting Conservative.”
Believe the official report - not the Comical HYali spin!
Just read it
Ipsos Mori has 17% of 2017 Labour voters likely to vote Tory if Boris is Tory leader and 12% likely to vote Tory if Hunt is Tory leader (p36 and 38 of the tables)
Ipsos Mori also has 12% of 2017 LD voters likely to vote Tory if Boris or Hunt are Tory leader.
So in total 29% of 2017 Labour or LD voters are likely to vote for a Boris led Tory Party while only 15% of current Tory voters are unlikely to vote for a Boris led Tory Party.
With Hunt 14% of 2017 Labour or LD voters are likely to vote for a Hunt led Tories and only 11% of current Tory voters are unlikely to vote for a Hunt led Tories
I have to expose this complete abuse of maths, even knowing that MikeL has allready called it out.
One recent poll has the LDs on 18% (and that is after don't knows have been excluded). 12% of 18% is 2.88%
12% of LD voters is nowhere near 12% of voters!
This is something a GCSE maths pupil should be getting right.
17% of 2017 Labour voters who would vote for Boris though is 7% of the electorate
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
I think the next election will see Boris deliver the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987 and you will still be whinging having voted LD!
Good luck with that as it’s pb.com maybe you should put some money behind that slightly hyperbolic suggestion. You’ll either clean up or be looking for somewhere to avoid the bailiffs
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
Remain leaders, once again, have been way overplaying their hand in other words. Either because they're being deliberately mendacious, or because they're stupid enough to believe their own publicity.
But Project Fear worked so well the last time. Why wouldn’t they try it again? Get the soon to be departed Chancellor to veto any preparation spending for good measure. Achieve the worst possible Brexit (no deal with a pissed off EU) and then say, “see, we told you”.
But it won't work, because as a respected remainer poster has just indicated, and as I floated the other month, there may just not be enough juice in 'crashing out without a deal' to actually have the impact that some remainers so quiveringly desire. Especially if we're actually pretty well prepared.
I seem to remember TSE was anything but a TMay cheerleader.
Have a look at the last leadership election threads.
TBF, the alternatives included Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
Because I'm scared to google this, and given your wonderful knowledge of history, which nearly rivals mine, is there a female equivalent of 'catamite'?
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
I think the next election will see Boris deliver the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987 and you will still be whinging having voted LD!
HYUFD, please let Phillip Hammond know the name of your supplier.
If he can sell twelve ounces of whatever you're on in the Far East, he could clear the national debt.
According to YouGov if Boris delivers Brexit before October 31st the Tories would be on 34%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 19% and the BP and Greens each on 9% and the SNP on 4%.
Electoral Calculus says that would give a Boris Tory majority of 118, with the Tories on 384 seats, Labour on 168, the LDs on 42 and the SNP on 34 and the BP on 0.
No our man from Horsham didn't, because Leadsom was at least competent and a good media performer, and as many of us said at the time, Theresa May had little to show from her time in high office except a gift for dogged survival, a talent which she once again displayed as PM.
Tories in the lead?? It’s a bit like the downfall parody. What the hell do they have to do? The self destruct button has quit from overuse, May is a walking parody of a PM, Tories spend their time taking lumps out of each other, Boris ducks and dives every question or interview and they lead.
The tradition is that the Tories are the stupid party. Labour look like winners in that competition if nothing else.
In the lead does not matter, it is suggesting around 240 seats, probably an overestimate once you get anti-tory tactical voting across the south.
They are only vaguely interested in a third of the vote, so like Corbyn need a miracle and weak opponent to have any chance of a majority.
A landslide is on offer for whichever of the Tories or Labour regains their sanity first.
It’s wrong to say that it doesn’t matter. It may not be enough but better in the lead than 4th like they were in the Euros.
I am not sure it matters whether the next MP is a brexit party loon or a tory ERG loon. The entryists have taken over and the Tory party is no longer a conservative party but a radical cultist and backward party. As with Labour it will take a while for those who have been Conservatives through thick and thin to get used to it and consider how to respond.
I seem to remember TSE was anything but a TMay cheerleader.
Have a look at the last leadership election threads.
TBF, the alternatives included Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
Because I'm scared to google this, and given your wonderful knowledge of history, which nearly rivals mine, is there a female equivalent of 'catamite'?
Is for a forthcoming thread.
I can't think of one. Doesn't mean there wasn't one. But bearing in mind that the age of female consent was until the late nineteenth century basically the onset of puberty, it probably wasn't a concept in the way that 'catamite' was.
I seem to remember TSE was anything but a TMay cheerleader.
Have a look at the last leadership election threads.
TBF, the alternatives included Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
Because I'm scared to google this, and given your wonderful knowledge of history, which nearly rivals mine, is there a female equivalent of 'catamite'?
Is for a forthcoming thread.
I can't think of one. Doesn't mean there wasn't one. But bearing in mind that the age of female consent was until the late nineteenth century basically the onset of puberty, it probably wasn't a concept in the way that 'catamite' was.
Not mad keen to Google it myself either...
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
I think the next election will see Boris deliver the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987 and you will still be whinging having voted LD!
Good luck with that as it’s pb.com maybe you should put some money behind that slightly hyperbolic suggestion. You’ll either clean up or be looking for somewhere to avoid the bailiffs
I already have a bet with Alistair Meeks that Boris will win a majority if there is a general election this year
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Couldn't get much worse in Scotland .... They got zero seats in 1997.
It could. A Unionist wipe out in Scotland with the SNP on 59 seats would be the cherry on the parfait.
Most polls still have the Tories winning at least 3 seats in Scotland, Labour at least 1 and the LDs even gaining seats to reach 5 so the SNP are unlikely to reach 59 or even the 56 they got in 2016 even if they recover some of the losses from 2017
I seem to remember TSE was anything but a TMay cheerleader.
Have a look at the last leadership election threads.
TBF, the alternatives included Liam Fox, Michael Gove and Andrea Leadsom.
Because I'm scared to google this, and given your wonderful knowledge of history, which nearly rivals mine, is there a female equivalent of 'catamite'?
Is for a forthcoming thread.
I can't think of one. Doesn't mean there wasn't one. But bearing in mind that the age of female consent was until the late nineteenth century basically the onset of puberty, it probably wasn't a concept in the way that 'catamite' was.
Not mad keen to Google it myself either...
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
Let's just say - it would be an awkward conversation for a teacher if they did.
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Couldn't get much worse in Scotland .... They got zero seats in 1997.
It could. A Unionist wipe out in Scotland with the SNP on 59 seats would be the cherry on the parfait.
Most polls still have the Tories winning at least 3 seats in Scotland, Labour at least 1 and the LDs even gaining seats to reach 5 so the SNP are unlikely to reach 59 or even the 56 they got in 2016 even if they recover some of the losses from 2017
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Couldn't get much worse in Scotland .... They got zero seats in 1997.
It could. A Unionist wipe out in Scotland with the SNP on 59 seats would be the cherry on the parfait.
Most polls still have the Tories winning at least 3 seats in Scotland, Labour at least 1 and the LDs even gaining seats to reach 5 so the SNP are unlikely to reach 59 or even the 56 they got in 2016 even if they recover some of the losses from 2017
51 is my projection.
351 I think you mean.
Winning 351 seats out of 59 would be a remarkable democratic feat.
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Couldn't get much worse in Scotland .... They got zero seats in 1997.
It could. A Unionist wipe out in Scotland with the SNP on 59 seats would be the cherry on the parfait.
Most polls still have the Tories winning at least 3 seats in Scotland, Labour at least 1 and the LDs even gaining seats to reach 5 so the SNP are unlikely to reach 59 or even the 56 they got in 2016 even if they recover some of the losses from 2017
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
Couldn't get much worse in Scotland .... They got zero seats in 1997.
It could. A Unionist wipe out in Scotland with the SNP on 59 seats would be the cherry on the parfait.
Most polls still have the Tories winning at least 3 seats in Scotland, Labour at least 1 and the LDs even gaining seats to reach 5 so the SNP are unlikely to reach 59 or even the 56 they got in 2016 even if they recover some of the losses from 2017
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
Well Boris Johnson's use of a catamite got him sacked.
Boris Johnson has spoken of his regret on concocting a quote about King Edward II and the monarch’s gay lover, when he was a junior reporter at the Times in the late 1980s.
In a BBC documentary broadcast on Monday, the London mayor was asked about having to leave the paper because of the incident.
He was sacked for falsifying a quotation from his godfather, Colin Lucas, later vice-chancellor of Oxford University.
The Guardian documents that as a 23-year-old Times trainee Mr Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists’ discovery of Edward II’s 14th-century palace.
He quoted Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch “enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston” at the palace. Gaveston was indeed rumoured to have been the king’s lover – but was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.
Of the quote, Mr Johnson told filmmaker Michael Cockerell: “It was awful… I remember a deep, deep sense of shame and guilt… just not knowing how to sort it out… it was a bit of a bummer frankly.”
Brian Coleman former London Assembly member and former Barnet councilllor has come out of hiding to give his views on Boris! http://thekingofblingisback.blogspot.com/
But it won't work, because as a respected remainer poster has just indicated, and as I floated the other month, there may just not be enough juice in 'crashing out without a deal' to actually have the impact that some remainers so quiveringly desire. Especially if we're actually pretty well prepared.
I think the effects will be very patchy.
If you export services, and are not overly reliant on EU staff, then you're barely see an impact. You may even benefit from a lower exchange rate.
If, on the other hand, you work in a sector where both EU tariffs and non-EU tariffs are high, then you will likely face a nasty hit. Similarly, if you're in an industry with a complex cross-border supply chains, it'll be quite miserable.
A lot also depends on how well the government responds to the crisis. Can they do a good job of tying up mutual agreements with individual EU states to remove double taxation and withholding taxes? Similarly, re professional qualifications and standards bodies.
And then there's the question of tariffs: removing them altogether lowers the short term impact on UK manufacturers, but leaves us in a weak negotiating position, and hammers our farmers. Leaving them at EU levels, but now covering 90% of our trading partners rather than 40%, hammers businesses in the UK that rely on international supply chains.
These are the things that should have been thought about ahead of time.
Instead, we shall attempt to "wing it", as Boris probably did in Oxford tutorials.
12% for the Brexit party? That's seriously out of line with most other recent polls. That doesn't mean it's wrong but it does mean that it needs to be treated with care.
I'm not altogether surprised at the fallback - they've had hardly any publicity for a few weeks, what with the Boris Show and all. That low share could easily rise quickly depending on circumstances. What is surprising is that the Con+Brexit+Ukip share is under 40%. If that's correct, it suggests that even though some Tories have switched back from Farage, another bunch of Tories have switched to the LibDems. This could be a worrying precursor to a BJ leadership - that Remainer/Wet Tories are unwilling to vote for him.
True. I'm just speculating how the Mori poll *might* be correct. Other polls have Farage on 20%+ but it has been thought that polls are overstating BxP support.
As usual taking an average of the polls is probably the best idea.
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
Well Boris Johnson's use of a catamite got him sacked.
Boris Johnson has spoken of his regret on concocting a quote about King Edward II and the monarch’s gay lover, when he was a junior reporter at the Times in the late 1980s.
In a BBC documentary broadcast on Monday, the London mayor was asked about having to leave the paper because of the incident.
He was sacked for falsifying a quotation from his godfather, Colin Lucas, later vice-chancellor of Oxford University.
The Guardian documents that as a 23-year-old Times trainee Mr Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists’ discovery of Edward II’s 14th-century palace.
He quoted Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch “enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston” at the palace. Gaveston was indeed rumoured to have been the king’s lover – but was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.
Of the quote, Mr Johnson told filmmaker Michael Cockerell: “It was awful… I remember a deep, deep sense of shame and guilt… just not knowing how to sort it out… it was a bit of a bummer frankly.”
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
Well Boris Johnson's use of a catamite got him sacked.
Boris Johnson has spoken of his regret on concocting a quote about King Edward II and the monarch’s gay lover, when he was a junior reporter at the Times in the late 1980s.
In a BBC documentary broadcast on Monday, the London mayor was asked about having to leave the paper because of the incident.
He was sacked for falsifying a quotation from his godfather, Colin Lucas, later vice-chancellor of Oxford University.
The Guardian documents that as a 23-year-old Times trainee Mr Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists’ discovery of Edward II’s 14th-century palace.
He quoted Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch “enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston” at the palace. Gaveston was indeed rumoured to have been the king’s lover – but was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.
Of the quote, Mr Johnson told filmmaker Michael Cockerell: “It was awful… I remember a deep, deep sense of shame and guilt… just not knowing how to sort it out… it was a bit of a bummer frankly.”
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
I think the next election will see Boris deliver the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987 and you will still be whinging having voted LD!
HYUFD, please let Phillip Hammond know the name of your supplier.
If he can sell twelve ounces of whatever you're on in the Far East, he could clear the national debt.
According to YouGov if Boris delivers Brexit before October 31st the Tories would be on 34%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 19% and the BP and Greens each on 9% and the SNP on 4%.
Electoral Calculus says that would give a Boris Tory majority of 118, with the Tories on 384 seats, Labour on 168, the LDs on 42 and the SNP on 34 and the BP on 0.
I think the relevant question now is what would the Tories be on if Johnson became leader with an unequivocal commitment to deliver Brexit by 31st October, only to find that parliament prevented any Brexit by failing to support his government in votes on Brexit and in a subsequent vote of confidence, with rebel Conservative MPs previously having defied the whip and lost the right to stand as Conservative candidates in the GE as a consequence.
(Yes, I know there are various nuances in the process leading to a GE arising from the FTPA but I don't think they are sufficient to avoid a GE.)
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
Well Boris Johnson's use of a catamite got him sacked.
Boris Johnson has spoken of his regret on concocting a quote about King Edward II and the monarch’s gay lover, when he was a junior reporter at the Times in the late 1980s.
In a BBC documentary broadcast on Monday, the London mayor was asked about having to leave the paper because of the incident.
He was sacked for falsifying a quotation from his godfather, Colin Lucas, later vice-chancellor of Oxford University.
The Guardian documents that as a 23-year-old Times trainee Mr Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists’ discovery of Edward II’s 14th-century palace.
He quoted Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch “enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston” at the palace. Gaveston was indeed rumoured to have been the king’s lover – but was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.
Of the quote, Mr Johnson told filmmaker Michael Cockerell: “It was awful… I remember a deep, deep sense of shame and guilt… just not knowing how to sort it out… it was a bit of a bummer frankly.”
I'm toying between calling Boris or Nigel Farage a Poundland Roderick Spode.
If Boris is Spode then Carrie has to be Madeline Bassett (Much Obliged Jeeves etc). Can't see it.
My name is Carrie I live on the second floor I live upstairs from you Yes I think you've seen me before
If you hear something late at night Some kind of trouble, some kind of fight Just don't ask me what it was Just don't ask me what it was Just don't ask me what it was
Would I expect a knock on the door if I did, I’m an engineer so such things go over my head.
Well Boris Johnson's use of a catamite got him sacked.
Boris Johnson has spoken of his regret on concocting a quote about King Edward II and the monarch’s gay lover, when he was a junior reporter at the Times in the late 1980s.
In a BBC documentary broadcast on Monday, the London mayor was asked about having to leave the paper because of the incident.
He was sacked for falsifying a quotation from his godfather, Colin Lucas, later vice-chancellor of Oxford University.
The Guardian documents that as a 23-year-old Times trainee Mr Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists’ discovery of Edward II’s 14th-century palace.
He quoted Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch “enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston” at the palace. Gaveston was indeed rumoured to have been the king’s lover – but was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.
Of the quote, Mr Johnson told filmmaker Michael Cockerell: “It was awful… I remember a deep, deep sense of shame and guilt… just not knowing how to sort it out… it was a bit of a bummer frankly.”
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
I think the next election will see Boris deliver the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987 and you will still be whinging having voted LD!
HYUFD, please let Phillip Hammond know the name of your supplier.
If he can sell twelve ounces of whatever you're on in the Far East, he could clear the national debt.
According to YouGov if Boris delivers Brexit before October 31st the Tories would be on 34%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 19% and the BP and Greens each on 9% and the SNP on 4%.
Electoral Calculus says that would give a Boris Tory majority of 118, with the Tories on 384 seats, Labour on 168, the LDs on 42 and the SNP on 34 and the BP on 0.
I think the relevant question now is what would the Tories be on if Johnson became leader with an unequivocal commitment to deliver Brexit by 31st October, only to find that parliament prevented any Brexit by failing to support his government in votes on Brexit and in a subsequent vote of confidence, with rebel Conservative MPs previously having defied the whip and lost the right to stand as Conservative candidates in the GE as a consequence.
(Yes, I know there are various nuances in the process leading to a GE arising from the FTPA but I don't think they are sufficient to avoid a GE.)
Then Boris likely wins a majority before October to deliver the Brexit the majority of voters voted for and the current Commons has blocked
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
Don't worry, I'm sure HUYFD will be along shortly to tell you why that's wrong . Sorry he already has!
I fear the next election will make 1997 look like a good night for the Tories.
I think the next election will see Boris deliver the biggest Tory majority since Thatcher in 1987 and you will still be whinging having voted LD!
HYUFD, please let Phillip Hammond know the name of your supplier.
If he can sell twelve ounces of whatever you're on in the Far East, he could clear the national debt.
According to YouGov if Boris delivers Brexit before October 31st the Tories would be on 34%, Labour on 22% and the LDs on 19% and the BP and Greens each on 9% and the SNP on 4%.
Electoral Calculus says that would give a Boris Tory majority of 118, with the Tories on 384 seats, Labour on 168, the LDs on 42 and the SNP on 34 and the BP on 0.
I think the relevant question now is what would the Tories be on if Johnson became leader with an unequivocal commitment to deliver Brexit by 31st October, only to find that parliament prevented any Brexit by failing to support his government in votes on Brexit and in a subsequent vote of confidence, with rebel Conservative MPs previously having defied the whip and lost the right to stand as Conservative candidates in the GE as a consequence.
(Yes, I know there are various nuances in the process leading to a GE arising from the FTPA but I don't think they are sufficient to avoid a GE.)
Then Boris likely wins a majority before October to deliver the Brexit the majority of voters voted for and the current Commons has blocked
Do you think you could actually try cracking a joke or posting something that isn’t based on a poll once in a while, it would all give us a bit of light relief.
Boris wants a Free Trade Deal for GB with the EU and trade deals with the rest of the world for GB too
.
Out of interest what will a Johnson government's key negotiating objectives be from a FTA with the EU, and what will they be prepared to offer the EU in return?
Boris wants a Free Trade Deal for GB with the EU and trade deals with the rest of the world for GB too
.
Out of interest what will a Johnson government's key negotiating objectives be from a FTA with the EU, and what will they be prepared to offer the EU in return?
Boris wants a Free Trade Deal for GB with the EU and trade deals with the rest of the world for GB too
.
Out of interest what will a Johnson government's key negotiating objectives be from a FTA with the EU, and what will they be prepared to offer the EU in return?
Boris wants a Free Trade Deal for GB with the EU and trade deals with the rest of the world for GB too
.
Out of interest what will a Johnson government's key negotiating objectives be from a FTA with the EU, and what will they be prepared to offer the EU in return?
Good luck Labour. You have a complete albatross as leader. Poison on the doorsteps.
But he has his integrity and he won last time.
So it's all ok.
To be fair to Corbyn he has 4% more satisfied with him than Foot, 1% more satisfied with him than was the case with IDS and Hague had only 2% more satisfied with him than Corbyn, even if Corbyn has more dissatisfied with him than Foot, IDS and Hague and Ed Miliband
Interestingly I think only IDS and Corbyn had equal or less frontbench experience to Bozo when they assumed the role
Boris was Foreign Secretary and Mayor of London for 8 years, a bigger executive position than running some countries
Don't be ridiculous Mayor of London is a vanity position. Well suited to Boris Johnson. How long was he Foreign Sec for again? What is he most remembered for?
Mayor of London isn't a vanity position. Boris did a decent job. Khan is doing ok, but he isn't making it look easy.
Did he? Are you able to point to any of his achievements? Please I would love to know. I keep asking HYUFD but he just keeps parroting optimistic predictions about what Boris will do when he is PM.
It is like someone being recommended for a job, but their only recommendation is that they are very good at winning interviews, and no one can point to anything of substance. I accept that it is highly unlikely I will vote for him (generally put off by liars) but I am one of those rare people that has a vote. It is either Hunt or abstention as choices for me at the moment. As a long term Conservative Party member I would love to be persuaded that Boris is not as hopeless as I think.
The proof that it's a non job is his claiming credit for the Olympics which had no imput from him. It can be a proper job. Ken's congestion charge was an excellent idea and well executed but apart from that his powers were limited
Comments
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-a6HNXtdvVQ
Labour are not our allies.
Now, even though they are literally the current government it is very easy to think that they may not be on the scene much longer.
The tradition is that the Tories are the stupid party. Labour look like winners in that competition if nothing else.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2019
London seemed to be buzzing as usual. A few more sales on than usual perhaps. The politicians are doing their best to screw the country but I saw little sign that the country is taking their efforts seriously.
The UK without it's head half way up Trumps backside would certainly be popular and the only leader guaranteed to give no quarter to Trumps America is one led by Corbyn
They are only vaguely interested in a third of the vote, so like Corbyn need a miracle and weak opponent to have any chance of a majority.
A landslide is on offer for whichever of the Tories or Labour regains their sanity first.
"Bistromathics itself is simply a revolutionary new way of understanding the behaviour of numbers. Just as Albert Einstein's general relativity theory observed that space was not an absolute but depended on the observer's movement in space, and that time was not an absolute, but depended on the observer's movement in time, so it is now realized that numbers are not absolute, but depend on the observer's movement in restaurants." [HHGTTG - D Adams.]
It gives:
Con 151
Lab 246
LD 65
Brex 115
SNP 51
PC 3
Grn 1
NI 18
I'm the one who christened Theresa May the pound shop Gordon Brown when the likes of Mortimer and other Leavers were declaring Theresa May the reincarnation of Thatcher and Boudica.
But being less fit than Boris Johnson by an 18 point margin?
He's not worth a pound.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48790803
A gun to Corbyn's head seems rather North Korean...
Our man from Russia didn't like that.
If he can sell twelve ounces of whatever you're on in the Far East, he could clear the national debt.
I've stopped calling him the disgraced national security risk, that title now belongs to Gavin Williamson.
Is for a forthcoming thread.
Electoral Calculus says that would give a Boris Tory majority of 118, with the Tories on 384 seats, Labour on 168, the LDs on 42 and the SNP on 34 and the BP on 0.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=34&LAB=22&LIB=19&Brexit=9&Green=9&UKIP=2&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVBrexit=&TVGreen=&TVUKIP=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base
Not mad keen to Google it myself either...
Sunday should have a thread that you will like a lot.
If anyone calls it clickbait they are getting exiled to ConHome.
It would almost rival Saddam Hussein's epics.
Boris Johnson has spoken of his regret on concocting a quote about King Edward II and the monarch’s gay lover, when he was a junior reporter at the Times in the late 1980s.
In a BBC documentary broadcast on Monday, the London mayor was asked about having to leave the paper because of the incident.
He was sacked for falsifying a quotation from his godfather, Colin Lucas, later vice-chancellor of Oxford University.
The Guardian documents that as a 23-year-old Times trainee Mr Johnson wrote a May 1988 article about archaeologists’ discovery of Edward II’s 14th-century palace.
He quoted Colin Lucas, giving the colourful detail that the monarch “enjoyed a reign of dissolution with his catamite, Piers Gaveston” at the palace. Gaveston was indeed rumoured to have been the king’s lover – but was also beheaded in 1312, a dozen years before the palace was built.
Of the quote, Mr Johnson told filmmaker Michael Cockerell: “It was awful… I remember a deep, deep sense of shame and guilt… just not knowing how to sort it out… it was a bit of a bummer frankly.”
https://www.pinknews.co.uk/2013/03/26/boris-johnson-i-was-wrong-to-make-up-a-quote-about-king-edward-ii-and-his-gay-lover-piers-gaveston/
http://thekingofblingisback.blogspot.com/
Edit: also, as Gaveston was 28 when executed, I'm not sure 'catamite' is the right word.
If you export services, and are not overly reliant on EU staff, then you're barely see an impact. You may even benefit from a lower exchange rate.
If, on the other hand, you work in a sector where both EU tariffs and non-EU tariffs are high, then you will likely face a nasty hit. Similarly, if you're in an industry with a complex cross-border supply chains, it'll be quite miserable.
A lot also depends on how well the government responds to the crisis. Can they do a good job of tying up mutual agreements with individual EU states to remove double taxation and withholding taxes? Similarly, re professional qualifications and standards bodies.
And then there's the question of tariffs: removing them altogether lowers the short term impact on UK manufacturers, but leaves us in a weak negotiating position, and hammers our farmers. Leaving them at EU levels, but now covering 90% of our trading partners rather than 40%, hammers businesses in the UK that rely on international supply chains.
These are the things that should have been thought about ahead of time.
Instead, we shall attempt to "wing it", as Boris probably did in Oxford tutorials.
I think the relevant question now is what would the Tories be on if Johnson became leader with an unequivocal commitment to deliver Brexit by 31st October,
only to find that parliament prevented any Brexit by failing to support his government in votes on Brexit and in a subsequent vote of confidence, with rebel Conservative MPs previously having defied the whip and lost the right to stand as Conservative candidates in the GE as a consequence.
(Yes, I know there are various nuances in the process leading to a GE arising from the FTPA but I don't think they are sufficient to avoid a GE.)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catamite
I live on the second floor
I live upstairs from you
Yes I think you've seen me before
If you hear something late at night
Some kind of trouble, some kind of fight
Just don't ask me what it was
Just don't ask me what it was
Just don't ask me what it was
with apologies to Suzanne Vega
titter...
You chose the photo.
Choosing the picture/video for a thread header is the greatest pleasure from editing PB.
Heck it is one of the top ten pleasures in my life.
I never expected it to be that fun.
Unfortunately, that's about as likely.
I'll get my coat.