I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
Both contenders are still promising no GE. How realistic is getting a deal (even an improved one) through Parliament without one? That Labour bloc is presumably key.
How are they going to get a deal through Parliament even if do we have a GE & the Conservatives win? It will still be the same old faces with the same old disagreements. They won a GE before on the commitment to leave the EU and the MPs have shown how much store they set by that.
Good afternoon, everyone.
(I've never said this so I thought I would now) Good afternoon Anne.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
Depends on how proactive the Uk government is wrt to business environment and taxes.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
I'm not 100% sure about the recovery of sterling. As we have discussed on here, exiting with no deal on October 31st settles nothing. There are still trade deals to do or not, still terms of trade in goods and services to negotiate, in fact vs a negotiation under the WA it is hugely more volatile and uncertain. Not what currency markets particularly value in a country (or however countries we are by then, if certain Leavers' wishes are fulfilled).
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
The surge in support for Boris after recent days (which I think he'd agree have been a bit suboptimal) is interesting support for the theory that any publicity is good publicity. The Brexit Party has been completely ignored by the media since the Euros and Peterborough, hence their slide.
I think TBP vote is just dormant at this stage waiting for Nige to declare the great Boris betrayal/calamity when it happens and then the Faragists will again erupt and the lava flow will engulf the Conservatives.
This of course leaves the Labour and its unified party and dynamic leader to sweep away the petrified remains of the Tories ....
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
Depends on how proactive the Uk government is wrt to business environment and taxes.
Completely agree. Also, hardship funds for farmers/fishers, and so many other things. But nothing impossible to deliver.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
Depends on how proactive the Uk government is wrt to business environment and taxes.
That's true - if the process heralds a huge govt giveaway then yes that might encourage "investment". God knows how much it will cost for the foreign motor manufacturers.
Edit: how much it will cost the govt to bribe the foreign motor manufacturers, that is.
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
I'm not 100% sure about the recovery of sterling. As we have discussed on here, exiting with no deal on October 31st settles nothing. There are still trade deals to do or not, still terms of trade in goods and services to negotiate, in fact vs a negotiation under the WA it is hugely more volatile and uncertain. Not what currency markets particularly value in a country (or however countries we are by then, if certain Leavers' wishes are fulfilled).
You're right, it's not 100% certain. But at the very least, it's more likely than not (depending on the Executive pushing through the obvious palliative measures required as noted by TGOHF below).
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
Well, yes, I suppose there's a fair chance Boris Johnson thinks the Brexit process is complete once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by the Commons, just as you do.
God knows you've been told often enough. But if you are Boris, maybe you were being distracted by flying crockery at the time or something.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
Why do you think the EY Item Club were wrong in their Winter 2018 forecast released in Jan 2019 when they predicted no deal. There prediction was based on knowing all the EU contingency plans and the UK plans and also using the intelligence gained from their Brexit Consultancy arm that was advising and knowing the positives and negatives that brexit would have.
The EY forecast for a no deal brexit was 1.7% growth in 2019 and 1,6% in 2020 with two quarters of zero growth Q1 and Q2 2020, then a fairly rapid recovery after that.
Seeing as the world economy is slowing, personally I think they are too optimistic but it is the same forecast as every other forecast made (I quote it because it is the lastest with knowledge of preparations and actions that would be taken in the event of no deal), the no deal forecasts have all been consistent, mild slow down then growth to continue at a decent rate 12 to 18 months after.
Off topic but of philosophical interest. A punter has lost the thick end of 200 grand by getting the name of the horse wrong on the betting slip. The Guardian isn't taking sides, but should they have paid out anyway?
In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.
I think it is inevitable that they do screw this up.
Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.
Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.
You voted LD in 2017, Richard Navabi has said he will vote LD if Boris is leader
Not quite. I said I'd probably vote LD if the alternative is the Conservatives heading us towards no-deal crash out. If the party has already crashed us out when it could have avoided doing so, it would be fairly academic because the Conservative Party won't really exist any more.
I have still a faint hope that Boris will renege on all his promises and shaft the ERG rather than shafting the economy, so we'll have to see. Either way I doubt if I'll remain a member if and when he becomes leader - it shows a complete lack of seriousness in the party that he's even vaguely in contention. What on earth is the Conservative Party for if it's not to be a serious party of government? (However I do note @Nigel_Foremains point that there might well be another leadership election in a few months. One to ponder on.)
Why do you think the EY Item Club were wrong in their Winter 2018 forecast released in Jan 2019 when they predicted no deal. There prediction was based on knowing all the EU contingency plans and the UK plans and also using the intelligence gained from their Brexit Consultancy arm that was advising and knowing the positives and negatives that brexit would have.
The EY forecast for a no deal brexit was 1.7% growth in 2019 and 1,6% in 2020 with two quarters of zero growth Q1 and Q2 2020, then a fairly rapid recovery after that.
Seeing as the world economy is slowing, personally I think they are too optimistic but it is the same forecast as every other forecast made (I quote it because it is the lastest with knowledge of preparations and actions that would be taken in the event of no deal), the no deal forecasts have all been consistent, mild slow down then growth to continue at a decent rate 12 to 18 months after.
I'm not sure I do think they are wrong. That's not a whole lot of growth and it won't help if the global economy slows also. My contention has always been that growth will be worse than it would have been. Zero growth today has a bigger impact on our wealth than some kind of growth tomorrow (in the future), the NPV of our wealth takes a big hit.
Off topic but of philosophical interest. A punter has lost the thick end of 200 grand by getting the name of the horse wrong on the betting slip. The Guardian isn't taking sides, but should they have paid out anyway?
Who knew there was a JeremyCunt running in the Victoria Derbyshire Handicap Stakes at Epsom. We all thought he was a non starter after the favourite was declared overnight to be not lame after all.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
The effect won't be uniform, though. Hence why I mentioned the media stories about farmers and fishing fleets etc. The media will inevitably focus on the sectors which are badly hit, and that will frame the overall narrative.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
The effect won't be uniform, though. Hence why I mentioned the media stories about farmers and fishing fleets etc. The media will inevitably focus on the sectors which are badly hit, and that will frame the overall narrative.
Off topic but of philosophical interest. A punter has lost the thick end of 200 grand by getting the name of the horse wrong on the betting slip. The Guardian isn't taking sides, but should they have paid out anyway?
Forgive my possible ignorance here, but why is it so obvious that he made a mistake? Surely from the bookmaker's point of view he's just as likely to have cocked up the race he was betting on as the horse he wanted?
Especially as he only spotted the error after the first race had concluded.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
The effect won't be uniform, though. Hence why I mentioned the media stories about farmers and fishing fleets etc. The media will inevitably focus on the sectors which are badly hit, and that will frame the overall narrative.
JackW could be his great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great great, grandfather... That's how young he looks....
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
I think that once we swallow whole the EU's no deal preparations document (which of course we will have to) then immediately much will continue as is. That said, over the subsequent several months, as the tariff regime is established and changes occur (for example in our farming and livestock sectors) then changes will become apparent.
As to the more tangible effects I see GBPUSD at around 1.10-1.15 and yes, a sizeable hit to GDP of the scale of the GFC. I don't see a wake up "gotcha" moment however (currency aside) and the vast majority of the UK will be largely unaware personally of the diminution of their wealth vs any alternative scenario (a deal, for example).
Hence the Leavers will be doing a lot of I told you so-ing. Even as they, we, all become poorer than we otherwise might have been.
I don't think that's an unrealistic scenario, except that it's too time limited; it misses out the part where the GBPUSD rate recovers over time (probably in the fairly short term, to be honest, particularly if the market over-reacts all the way down to 1.10), and GDP recovers off the back of that.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
Depends on how proactive the Uk government is wrt to business environment and taxes.
Which in turn depends on how far they are prepared to allow the deficit to rise bearing in mind that tax revenues will be falling and public services are already creaking. And if sterling looks a one-way bet and the government stance is to tell business to go forth and multiply gilts will probably not be at the top of foreign investors shopping lists.
Many people are suggesting she write to her local MP to find out who is responsible.
Someone is doing something about it. They are systematically making it harder to claim these benefits by making the paperwork and the medicals more difficult and packing the tribunal system full of people who have to try and overturn bad decisions.
Citizens Advice have never been so busy. She should spend an hour online at the forum of Benefits&Work website.
JackW could be his great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great great, grandfather... That's how young he looks....
Off topic but of philosophical interest. A punter has lost the thick end of 200 grand by getting the name of the horse wrong on the betting slip. The Guardian isn't taking sides, but should they have paid out anyway?
Absolutely not. He wrote the wrong name and didn't verify it. Of course it sucks for him, but the bookie has done nothing wrong here, it's entirely his own cock up. And the sum of money doesn't really change that.
According to Ipsos-Mori only 17% very likely to vote Conservative if Hunt were leader and only 19% if Boris were leader so poor compared to the 26% among those certain to vote (9/10) Conservative at present.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
Well, yes, I suppose there's a fair chance Boris Johnson thinks the Brexit process is complete once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by the Commons, just as you do.
God knows you've been told often enough. But if you are Boris, maybe you were being distracted by flying crockery at the time or something.
Once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed free trade agreement talks with the EU begin
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
According to Ipsos-Mori only 17% very likely to vote Conservative if Hunt were leader and only 19% if Boris were leader so poor compared to the 26% among those certain to vote (9/10) Conservative at present.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
Ipsos Mori actually had 36% likely to vote Tory under Boris and 32% likely to vote Tory under Hunt so both significantly higher than the 26% currently voting Tory.
21% of current non Tory voters are likely to vote Tory under Boris and 14% under Hunt
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
Well, yes, I suppose there's a fair chance Boris Johnson thinks the Brexit process is complete once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by the Commons, just as you do.
God knows you've been told often enough. But if you are Boris, maybe you were being distracted by flying crockery at the time or something.
Once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed free trade agreement talks with the EU begin
The point is that leaving with a deal requires further legislation after the Commons passes a withdrawal agreement. Not rocket science, but evidently beyond you.
Off topic but of philosophical interest. A punter has lost the thick end of 200 grand by getting the name of the horse wrong on the betting slip. The Guardian isn't taking sides, but should they have paid out anyway?
Absolutely not. He wrote the wrong name and didn't verify it. Of course it sucks for him, but the bookie has done nothing wrong here, it's entirely his own cock up. And the sum of money doesn't really change that.
Bit less here than meets the eye. It wasn't a spelling mistake, it was a real horse really running in another race. It looks a bit like post event rationalisation to me. something all punters are a little prone to.
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
Well, yes, I suppose there's a fair chance Boris Johnson thinks the Brexit process is complete once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed by the Commons, just as you do.
God knows you've been told often enough. But if you are Boris, maybe you were being distracted by flying crockery at the time or something.
Once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed free trade agreement talks with the EU begin
The point is that leaving with a deal requires further legislation after the Commons passes a withdrawal agreement. Not rocket science, but evidently beyond you.
Once the Withdrawal Agreement is passed we enter the transition period and Free Trade Agreement talks begin which will also be passed given the Tory majority which passes the former will certainly pass the latter.
Yet continue being as patronising and defeatist as ever
Many people are suggesting she write to her local MP to find out who is responsible.
She'll be finding out next week that the poor don't eat cakes all day.
Competence not policy is the big issue. Politicians are in denial about this. Another reminder that with government and politics generally the first thing the poor old public want and can't have is competence. If politicians put absolute basic competence - keeping stuff fast, consumer oriented, accurate, simple and efficient - first and policies second they would stand higher in public esteem.
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
US: I know it seems insane but I'm still on Gabbard. Breaking the mould.
UK: Any vaguely sensible person should get 100% in terms of lead over Corbyn. He's far worse than a tub of Lard, and far, far worse than Mr Hattersley, who in context was outstanding.
The Tories seemingly are struggling to find 'sensible'.
All hell's gonna be let loose whatever, we've had countless "experts" telling us so forever. Rather like those sandwich board men, looking pretty similar too.
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
Nope. It was only rejected by the DUP who held the whip hand over the British Government.
Once Boris wins a majority the DUP can be ignored and the FTA for GB most British voters want and the backstop to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland most Northern Irish voters want can be delivered
The Tories still exist as the main opposition which they would not if Brexit is not delivered as that would then be the Brexit Party
A Lab/LD/SNP coalition would have the fascinating task of putting it all right in line with their various election promises, and also to take responsibility for their failure to stop no deal, given that most of the Commons didn't want it. (Which is why it won't happen).
Mr. Pete, to be fair, stranger things have happened. And are happening.
Boris Johnson as our esteemed leader is about as strange as things get...surely?
I hope you're right, with JC waiting in the wings
Much as I detest Corbs, Johnson's sense of entitlement is somehow even worse. Johnson falling at tbe final hurdle, even if that meant a Corbyn government and all my children's inheritance spent on creating a Palestinian homeland in my back garden, would be worth it.
Mr. Pete, to be fair, stranger things have happened. And are happening.
Boris Johnson as our esteemed leader is about as strange as things get...surely?
I hope you're right, with JC waiting in the wings
Much as I detest Corbs, Johnson's sense of entitlement is somehow even worse. Johnson falling at tbe final hurdle, even if that meant a Corbyn government and all my children's inheritance spent on creating a Palestinian homeland in my back garden, would be worth it.
Did you vote Tory in 2015 or 2017? If not who cares!
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
I'm not sure that Unionism still exists to any great extent in the UK outside the chattering classes and half of NI.
The Tories still exist as the main opposition which they would not if Brexit is not delivered as that would then be the Brexit Party
A Lab/LC/SNP coalition would have the fascinating task of putting it all right in line with their various election promises, and also to take responsibility for their failure to stop no deal, given that most of the Commons didn't want one. (Which is why it won't happen).
Which is why Boris would not do too badly Leader of the Opposition to a Corbyn minority government
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
I'm not sure that Unionism still exists to any great extent in the UK outside the chattering classes and half of NI.
Mr. Pete, to be fair, stranger things have happened. And are happening.
Boris Johnson as our esteemed leader is about as strange as things get...surely?
I hope you're right, with JC waiting in the wings
Much as I detest Corbs, Johnson's sense of entitlement is somehow even worse. Johnson falling at tbe final hurdle, even if that meant a Corbyn government and all my children's inheritance spent on creating a Palestinian homeland in my back garden, would be worth it.
Did you vote Tory in 2015 or 2017? If not who cares!
Mr. Pete, to be fair, stranger things have happened. And are happening.
Boris Johnson as our esteemed leader is about as strange as things get...surely?
I hope you're right, with JC waiting in the wings
Much as I detest Corbs, Johnson's sense of entitlement is somehow even worse. Johnson falling at tbe final hurdle, even if that meant a Corbyn government and all my children's inheritance spent on creating a Palestinian homeland in my back garden, would be worth it.
I obviously value my back garden more than you do yours.
Just been searching on twitter for Northern Ireland backstop referendum tweets. There are a few. None of them before Portillo suggested it two weeks ago. None of them by Boris advisors. Most of them (at least 30) by HYUFD.
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
I'm not sure that Unionism still exists to any great extent in the UK outside the chattering classes and half of NI.
It certainly doesn't exist in the Conservative and Unionist party outside of Scotland.
Not content with just banning porn and plastic straws, Theresa May has decided to add a £1 trillion – that’s £1,000,000,000,000 – economic black hole to her “legacy” with her new policy to force the UK to have ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050.
Mr. Pete, to be fair, stranger things have happened. And are happening.
Boris Johnson as our esteemed leader is about as strange as things get...surely?
I hope you're right, with JC waiting in the wings
Much as I detest Corbs, Johnson's sense of entitlement is somehow even worse. Johnson falling at tbe final hurdle, even if that meant a Corbyn government and all my children's inheritance spent on creating a Palestinian homeland in my back garden, would be worth it.
I obviously value my back garden more than you do yours.
To witness Johnson's absolute and complete humiliation it seems like excellent value.
The scary bit about that poll - from a Conservative perspective - is that:
Con + BXP = 38 Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
You are forgetting many of those Labour voters in Northern and Midlands marginals voted Leave, the scary thing for Labour is if it shifts to EUref2 those voters go for Boris or Farage and the Tories then win scores of Labour v Tory marginal seats
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
I'm not sure that Unionism still exists to any great extent in the UK outside the chattering classes and half of NI.
And 55% of Scots
I'm not sure that the 45% is much down to Unionism, I suspect self interest was a significant motivator
Mr. Pete, to be fair, stranger things have happened. And are happening.
Boris Johnson as our esteemed leader is about as strange as things get...surely?
I hope you're right, with JC waiting in the wings
Much as I detest Corbs, Johnson's sense of entitlement is somehow even worse. Johnson falling at tbe final hurdle, even if that meant a Corbyn government and all my children's inheritance spent on creating a Palestinian homeland in my back garden, would be worth it.
Churchill had that same 'sense of entitlement'. There's a degree to which I don't like that, but on the other hand if you're so sure you're the man for the job, then that's interesting.
I suspect you can engender happiness, culture, and warmth in your back garden which tells you that your culture isn't tied to and land.
Just been searching on twitter for Northern Ireland backstop referendum tweets. There are a few. None of them before Portillo suggested it two weeks ago. None of them by Boris advisors. Most of them (at least 30) by HYUFD.
As I posted before and RCS will attest it was posted on this site a week ago but clearly you are too lazy to go back through old threads to find it, that is up to you.
Boris made clear yesterday No Deal was a million to one shot as he knows a FTA for GB is what he will do
I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?
I don't follow that.
Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?
Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.
Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.
Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow
The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.
He does.
Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.
No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?
Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border
And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).
The EU have said that is an option, Barnier offered May a FTA for GB ages ago but with the backstop for NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border.
Do keep up
It is you who needs to keep up. The reason this was rejected by the British was because it involved treating NI differently to the rest of Britain a bit of a no-no as far as Unionists are concerned.
I'm not sure that Unionism still exists to any great extent in the UK outside the chattering classes and half of NI.
At first glance, I read that as Unicornism. That certsinly still exists in the UK!
According to Ipsos-Mori only 17% very likely to vote Conservative if Hunt were leader and only 19% if Boris were leader so poor compared to the 26% among those certain to vote (9/10) Conservative at present.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
Ipsos Mori actually had 36% likely to vote Tory under Boris and 32% likely to vote Tory under Hunt so both significantly higher than the 26% currently voting Tory.
21% of current non Tory voters are likely to vote Tory under Boris and 14% under Hunt
MORI’s own summary of its poll finding: ”There is little evidence that either Boris Johnson or Jeremy Hunt would make much difference to how likely people would be to consider voting Conservative.”
Believe the official report - not the Comical HYali spin!
Not content with just banning porn and plastic straws, Theresa May has decided to add a £1 trillion – that’s £1,000,000,000,000 – economic black hole to her “legacy” with her new policy to force the UK to have ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050.
Comments
Perhaps they should try the Green party.
Twitter is taking this well (example below) .
https://twitter.com/FionaSnp/status/1144164703616192512?s=19
Many people are suggesting she write to her local MP to find out who is responsible.
As you sort of suggest, this is not political apocalypse territory.
http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-7tXmQmWJnzM/T3BWgEnsRzI/AAAAAAAAA4o/wME0upTglVo/s1600/10-bird-wallpapers-eagle-owl-wallpaper.jpg?vm=r
This of course leaves the Labour and its unified party and dynamic leader to sweep away the petrified remains of the Tories ....
Ah .... just noticed a slight flaw ....
Ken was Maggie's go to man when she was PM, it was he who introduced the free market to the NHS internal market.
He was also responsible for a few privatisations when he was at the DTI.
Edit: how much it will cost the govt to bribe the foreign motor manufacturers, that is.
God knows you've been told often enough. But if you are Boris, maybe you were being distracted by flying crockery at the time or something.
The EY forecast for a no deal brexit was 1.7% growth in 2019 and 1,6% in 2020 with two quarters of zero growth Q1 and Q2 2020, then a fairly rapid recovery after that.
Seeing as the world economy is slowing, personally I think they are too optimistic but it is the same forecast as every other forecast made (I quote it because it is the lastest with knowledge of preparations and actions that would be taken in the event of no deal), the no deal forecasts have all been consistent, mild slow down then growth to continue at a decent rate 12 to 18 months after.
Dame Anna N'Eagle .....
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/27/mistake-betting-slip-punter-lost-200k-bookie
I have still a faint hope that Boris will renege on all his promises and shaft the ERG rather than shafting the economy, so we'll have to see. Either way I doubt if I'll remain a member if and when he becomes leader - it shows a complete lack of seriousness in the party that he's even vaguely in contention. What on earth is the Conservative Party for if it's not to be a serious party of government? (However I do note @Nigel_Foremains point that there might well be another leadership election in a few months. One to ponder on.)
Here's PwC for example:
We project UK growth to dip to 1.1% in 2019 and to strengthen only moderately, to 1.6% in 2020. Slow growth this year reflects the drag on business investment from ongoing economic and political uncertainty relating to the outcome of the Brexit process. Our main scenario assumes an orderly exit from the EU with a transition period, with business investment and GDP growth picking up later in 2019 and in 2020. But short-term risks are weighted to the downside due to the possibility of a more disorderly Brexit.
Con 22%
BRX 22%
Lab 20%
LD 19%
Green 10%
Especially as he only spotted the error after the first race had concluded.
JackW could be his great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great, great great, grandfather... That's how young he looks....
Citizens Advice have never been so busy. She should spend an hour online at the forum of Benefits&Work website.
JackW is somewhat north of twenty-one ....
We could go from four parties polling equally to five.
Only 6% of other party voters would switch if Boris became Party leader and just 3% if Hunt became leader so again no great groundswell of support there.
Because if the answer is nothing, they may as well not have bothered writing the letter.
However, if Watson led scores of Labour MPs out of the door (I don't think he will) that's an entirely different kettle of monkeys.
Do keep up
b) I'll not have johnny foreigner tell me where he chooses to build his cars
* delete as appropriate.
21% of current non Tory voters are likely to vote Tory under Boris and 14% under Hunt
https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/little-choose-between-hunt-and-johnson-terms-public-opinion
Nice kecks. Now't in 'em.
All hell let's lose I would say.
Yet continue being as patronising and defeatist as ever
Any sort of competent Brexit would be a plus too.
UK:
Any vaguely sensible person should get 100% in terms of lead over Corbyn. He's far worse than a tub of Lard, and far, far worse than Mr Hattersley, who in context was outstanding.
The Tories seemingly are struggling to find 'sensible'.
Once Boris wins a majority the DUP can be ignored and the FTA for GB most British voters want and the backstop to avoid a hard border with the Republic of Ireland most Northern Irish voters want can be delivered
https://t.co/MfmnqgQilz
Con + BXP = 38
Lab + LD + Grn = 56
A little bit of tactical voting, and things could look very ugly indeed for the Conservatives
http://tinyurl.com/yy2va7nf
Not content with just banning porn and plastic straws, Theresa May has decided to add a £1 trillion – that’s £1,000,000,000,000 – economic black hole to her “legacy” with her new policy to force the UK to have ‘net zero’ emissions by 2050.
"things look very ugly for the Conservatives"
I suspect you can engender happiness, culture, and warmth in your back garden which tells you that your culture isn't tied to and land.
Boris made clear yesterday No Deal was a million to one shot as he knows a FTA for GB is what he will do
Believe the official report - not the Comical HYali spin!