politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The most accurate pollster at the Euros has Hunt rated better

12% for BXP is potentially very interesting.

Ipsos Mori also had a Boris led Tory Party on up to 36% but a Hunt led Tories only up to 32%

TheScreamingEagles said:

#HasToBeHunt

ConHome Tory members next Tory leader poll taken yesterday and out this morning.

Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

#HasToBeHunt

ConHome Tory members next Tory leader poll taken yesterday and out this morning.

Boris 66% Hunt 30% Undecided 4%

https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html

In truth there are surely many more undecideds - being undecided makes you less likely to respond. But it's still very hard to see a path for Hunt.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Ipsos Mori also had a Boris led Tory Party on up to 36% but a Hunt led Tories only up to 32%

Fake news. It asked would they consider voting Tory, not would they vote Tory if x or y was Tory leader.

Still a win for Boris, though.

On the poll, the overall -6 for Brexit-supporting parties and +6 for Remain-supporting ones looks OTT (even allowing for some Remain Labour leaching to the LDs). Do IPSOS not weight to the referendum result?

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Ipsos Mori also had a Boris led Tory Party on up to 36% but a Hunt led Tories only up to 32%

Fake news. It asked would they consider voting Tory, not would they vote Tory if x or y was Tory leader.

Still a win for Boris, though.

Not really, these hypothetical polls are rubbish.

Back in 2007 45% of the country said they could vote for a Gordon Brown led Labour party at the next general election.

I meant relative to Hunt.

Tissue_Price said:

On the poll, the overall -6 for Brexit-supporting parties and +6 for Remain-supporting ones looks OTT (even allowing for some Remain Labour leaching to the LDs). Do IPSOS not weight to the referendum result?

IIRC - Ipsos MORI weight to demographics and GE2017 vote recall.

KentRising said:

There's an opposition?

Farage seems to be the leader of the opposition now. Or maybe the LibDem leader, despite the fact nobody knows who that is.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Tissue_Price said:

On the poll, the overall -6 for Brexit-supporting parties and +6 for Remain-supporting ones looks OTT (even allowing for some Remain Labour leaching to the LDs). Do IPSOS not weight to the referendum result?

IIRC - Ipsos MORI weight to demographics and GE2017 vote recall.

Interestingly, the Tory lead is 30-25 amongst "all naming a party" rather than IPSOS's usual measure of 9 or 10/10 certainty to vote. Perhaps the uncertainty over the leadership is affecting that?

https://www.ipsos.com/sites/default/files/ct/news/documents/2019-06/polmon-june-27-2019-topline.pdf

It seems reasonably clear to me that Boris will get a (potentially brief) honeymoon; but as @SouthamObserver noted FPT that may well create a reaction on the other side.

Tissue_Price said:

12% for BXP is potentially very interesting.

Demand for BXP is clearly VERY elastic and VERY reliant on whether people believe the Tories are doing proper Brexit today or not.

There's a bit of a Bozza Bounce at the moment, but IMO he wants to moderate how sunny the uplands are that he promises. If he creates the impression of a stress-free Brexit at the stroke, nay flourish, of his pen and it doesn't happen, Farage will bounce back like Tigger* on speed. That could be pretty fatal for the Tories in a snap election.

(*The cartoon character, not the loose grouping of centrist MPs)

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

Thanks for the response. So, your concern is in essence one of political management, then? I accept that's definitely a risk; it doesn't quite feel like a certainty (but ask me again in 3 months).

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

Only a quarter of that coming to pass puts the Tories out of office for a generation. It would make a couple of days’ high interest rates before Black Wednesday look like a tea party.

Good summary, what you can expect though is for the usual suspects to (ie those who made the wild promises in 2016) to blame every but themselves.......

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

The difference with 2008/9 is we are going in having largely fixed the roof.

justin124 said:

I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?

I don't follow that.

Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?

Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

As long as leavers suffer longest and hardest and handwaving MPs suffer personal direct adverse consequences, so be it. They won’t, of course. In war there is always collateral damage. Leavers love a war analogy, don’t they.

matt said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

As long as leavers suffer longest and hardest and handwaving MPs suffer personal direct adverse consequences, so be it. They won’t, of course. In war there is always collateral damage. Leavers love a war analogy, don’t they.

Mind you some well known and not so well known will make loads of money

matt said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

As long as leavers suffer longest and hardest and handwaving MPs suffer personal direct adverse consequences, so be it. They won’t, of course. In war there is always collateral damage. Leavers love a war analogy, don’t they.

I'm looking forward to the inevitable Brexit Inquiry and the subsequent Brexit equivalent of the Nuremberg trials for the leading Brexiteers.

Scott_P said:

This is presumably why he is being warned not to reshuffle before a VONC

https://twitter.com/TelePolitics/status/1144228985620111360

Although if they are going to be shuffled out anyway, departing anti-no-deal minsters might VONC in any case

I see Boris has gone full Esther McVey.

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

The difference with 2008/9 is we are going in having largely fixed the roof.

We haven't fixed the roof. We've just stopped it leaking.

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Ipsos Mori also had a Boris led Tory Party on up to 36% but a Hunt led Tories only up to 32%

Fake news. It asked would they consider voting Tory, not would they vote Tory if x or y was Tory leader.

Still a win for Boris, though.

Not really, these hypothetical polls are rubbish.

Back in 2007 45% of the country said they could vote for a Gordon Brown led Labour party at the next general election.

Cameron did better in 2005 hypothetical polls than Davis, David Miliband did better in 2010 hypothetical polls than Ed Miliband, both were right.

2007 was pre 2008 crash

It’s not even a hypothetical poll.

A hypothetical poll is “if the parties were lead by X, Y and Z, who would you vote for?”

Asking whether people would “consider” voting for someone at best simply establishes a ceiling. The LibDems pre-2010 used to get well over half the population saying they would consider supporting them; clearly this doesn’t translate into any particular VI.

I thought fake pollery was a banning offence here?

No fake pollery that was an actual poll putting a Boris led Tory Party up to 36% together with all the other polls we have had none of which have had in hypothetical voting intention a Boris led Tory Party trailing Labour and most of which have had a Boris led Tory Party ahead.

I know you despise Boris and hate polls putting Boris ahead but tough luck

https://twitter.com/PaulBrandITV/status/1144231319808937984

Animal_pb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

matt said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

As long as leavers suffer longest and hardest and handwaving MPs suffer personal direct adverse consequences, so be it. They won’t, of course. In war there is always collateral damage. Leavers love a war analogy, don’t they.

I'm looking forward to the inevitable Brexit Inquiry and the subsequent Brexit equivalent of the Nuremberg trials for the leading Brexiteers.

To quote Wesley, from TPB - "get used to disappointment".

I'm used to disappointment.

But the Brexit inquiry is something a lot of Leavers in government are afraid of happening in the event of No Deal.

Given that shagger thinks we get a transition with No Deal I'm not really convinced he knows what he's talking about.

https://twitter.com/elashton/status/1144232787584651264

Tissue_Price said:

Both contenders are still promising no GE. How realistic is getting a deal (even an improved one) through Parliament without one? That Labour bloc is presumably key.

How are they going to get a deal through Parliament even if do we have a GE & the Conservatives win? It will still be the same old faces with the same old disagreements. They won a GE before on the commitment to leave the EU and the MPs have shown how much store they set by that.

Good afternoon, everyone.

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

tlg86 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Ipsos Mori also had a Boris led Tory Party on up to 36% but a Hunt led Tories only up to 32%

Fake news. It asked would they consider voting Tory, not would they vote Tory if x or y was Tory leader.

Still a win for Boris, though.

Not really, these hypothetical polls are rubbish.

Back in 2007 45% of the country said they could vote for a Gordon Brown led Labour party at the next general election.

Cameron did better in 2005 hypothetical polls than Davis, David Miliband did better in 2010 hypothetical polls than Ed Miliband, both were right.

2007 was pre 2008 crash

It’s not even a hypothetical poll.

A hypothetical poll is “if the parties were lead by X, Y and Z, who would you vote for?”

Asking whether people would “consider” voting for someone at best simply establishes a ceiling. The LibDems pre-2010 used to get well over half the population saying they would consider supporting them; clearly this doesn’t translate into any particular VI.

I thought fake pollery was a banning offence here?

No fake pollery that was an actual poll putting a Boris led Tory Party up to 36% together with all the other polls we have had none of which have had in hypothetical voting intention a Boris led Tory Party trailing Labour and most of which have had a Boris led Tory Party ahead.

What were the other parties on?

Animal_pb said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

matt said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

As long as leavers suffer longest and hardest and handwaving MPs suffer personal direct adverse consequences, so be it. They won’t, of course. In war there is always collateral damage. Leavers love a war analogy, don’t they.

I'm looking forward to the inevitable Brexit Inquiry and the subsequent Brexit equivalent of the Nuremberg trials for the leading Brexiteers.

To quote Wesley, from TPB - "get used to disappointment".

I think a subsequent post Mr. Thicky Labour government will certainly milk it as much as possible through a public enquiry. Chilcot on steroids.

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1144233796054716416

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1144233796054716416

And then what....

Then this

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1144233796054716416

With Corbyn blocking EUref2 as well is Tom Watson about to launch a leadership challenge?

Nice to read some good news: https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/uknews/uks-biggest-carbon-capture-project-is-step-change-on-emissions/ar-AADtlxH?ocid=spartandhp

Animal_pb said:

(as the actress said to the bishop)

In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.

I think it is inevitable that they do screw this up.

Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.

Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.

Nigel_Foremain said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Chris said:

justin124 said:

I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?

I don't follow that.

Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?

Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.

Yesterday's poll has 28% as first choice alone.

That's before considering that people may vote on other matters too.

Those two points are really the same one twice, if the Tories really do adopt No Deal, or a policy that effectively leads to No Deal.

Of course it may be that people will vote on other issues as well as Brexit. But there's no reason that factor per se should benefit the Tories or the Brexit Party rather than other parties (does the latter even have any other issues?).

On the most influential political issue of the day, the Tories would do well to remember that if they pin their hopes on No Deal, they're going to be fishing in a pond that contains not more than a third of the electorate, and with no assurance of catching anything like all the fish.

Boris will deliver a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum not a Farage No Deal

Boris doesn't have the ability to deliver a second class letter.

I do hope so, but I think it is unlikely. If so empty vessel Boris is sunk. I am not keen on the nonce-finder-general but he is someone that has energy and drive. If Corbyn is removed and replaced by anyone half decent everything changes

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

justin124 said:

I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?

I don't follow that.

Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?

Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.

Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.

Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow

The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.

He does.

Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.

No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop

So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1144233796054716416

With Corbyn blocking EUref2 as well is Tom Watson about to launch a leadership challenge?

Sorry, comment meant to be here: I do hope so, but I think it is unlikely. If so empty vessel Boris is sunk. I am not keen on the nonce-finder-general but he is someone that has energy and drive. If Corbyn is removed and replaced by anyone half decent everything changes

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

(as the actress said to the bishop)

In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.

I think it is inevitable that they do screw this up.

Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.

Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.

Well, I hope you and he feel differently in a few months. You never know, it might not be as bad as you fear.

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

justin124 said:

I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?

I don't follow that.

Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?

Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.

Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.

Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow

The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.

He does.

Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.

No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop

So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?

Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

(as the actress said to the bishop)

In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.

I think it is inevitable that they do screw this up.

Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.

Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.

I am keeping my membership for the next leadership election. I give a Boris leadership 6 to 12 months tops. He is incompetent and a snowflake

I would like to keep my membership to at least May 2022 then I will have been a member for 25 years.

My fear is that the party will go even more wingnut if Boris fails.


The spin will be Boris really didn't believe in Brexit and only backed it for his leadership ambitions, what we really need a true believer, so step forward Mark Francois or Andrew Bridgen as the next Tory leader after Boris.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

(as the actress said to the bishop)

In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.

I think it is inevitable that they do screw this up.

Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.

Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.

I am keeping my membership for the next leadership election. I give a Boris leadership 6 to 12 months tops. He is incompetent and a snowflake

I would like to keep my membership to at least May 2022 then I will have been a member for 25 years.

My fear is that the party will go even more wingnut if Boris fails.


The spin will be Boris really didn't believe in Brexit and only backed it for his leadership ambitions, what we really need a true believer, so step forward Mark Francois or Andrew Bridgen as the next Tory leader after Boris.

Yes it could be a Patel v Baker v Francois contest if Boris fails to deliver Brexit or a Farage takeover

Gove is lucky he didn't make the final 2 otherwise Sarah Vine would have just sunk his campaign today.

Jaw dropping stuff.

Alistair said:

Gove is lucky he didn't make the final 2 otherwise Sarah Vine would have just sunk his campaign today.

Jaw dropping stuff.

Don't be coy, what did she say?

TheScreamingEagles said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Scott_P said:

twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1144233796054716416

And then what....

Then this

Michael Fabricant lost his wig again in the Lichfield desert ??

Nigel_Foremain said:

nichomar said:

matt said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

FPT:

Animal_pb said:

I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?

Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.

What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.

As long as leavers suffer longest and hardest and handwaving MPs suffer personal direct adverse consequences, so be it. They won’t, of course. In war there is always collateral damage. Leavers love a war analogy, don’t they.

Mind you some well known and not so well known will make loads of money

I suspect Arron Banks and therefore Nigel Farage may do well out of it from business sources unknown

And JRM and a former cabinet members husband from the known

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Animal_pb said:

(as the actress said to the bishop)

In all seriousness, if Boris & Co screw this one up, the judgement in court of public opinion will come far before any serious inquiry, much as it did for Blair. The posters on this board care about Chilcot; you'd be hard pressed to find many 'normal' folk that could even remember what his report covered.

I think it is inevitable that they do screw this up.

Like Richard Nabavi my membership of the Tory party after the 1st of November isn't guaranteed.

Honestly if we wanted to join a party that was going to the trash the economy we'd have joined the Labour party.

You voted LD in 2017, Richard Navabi has said he will vote LD if Boris is leader

You really are stupid aren't you.

I vote swapped because I live in a Lib Dem/Labour marginal which helped the Tories gain a seat from Labour.

I also campaigned for the Tories in 2018 and 2019, which is an odd thing for a Lib Dem to do isn't it?

I am sure the Tory candidate in Sheffield Hallam in 2017 will understand

HYUFD said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

HYUFD said:

Chris said:

justin124 said:

I don't think these figures add up really - Tories only on 26% with Brexit Pty on 12%?

I don't follow that.

Surely the closer the Tories get to adopting No Deal as their policy, the closer the Tory figure plus the Brexit Party figure should be to the percentage supporting No Deal?

Per yesterday's poll, that's 28%, not 38%. Which would suggest the Tories have further to fall, if anything.

Boris supports Brexit Deal or No Deal on October 31st and voted for the Withdrawal Agreement at MV3.

Farage and the Brexit Party reject the Withdrawal Agreement outright and want to go straight to No Deal WTO terms so that does not follow

The problem is that no one in the world except you believes there is going to be time for us to leave the EU with a deal by 31 October. Not even Boris Johnson.

He does.

Boris wins a majority by October 31st, then can pass the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st too with the temporary Customs Union for GB May asked Barnier to impose removed.

No longer reliant on the DUP having won a Tory majority he could also hold a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop

So Boris is going to keep us in the customs union? Anyone told Mark Francois et al?

Nope, Boris takes GB out of the Customs Union, he lets NI voters decide if they want to keep it in NI until a technical solution is found to the Irish border

And when the EU state its not an option (remember the backstop arrived only when it become obvious the issues the Good Friday agreement created).

The surge in support for Boris after recent days (which I think he'd agree have been a bit suboptimal) is interesting support for the theory that any publicity is good publicity. The Brexit Party has been completely ignored by the media since the Euros and Peterborough, hence their slide.