FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.
You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.
Indeed. It's an astounding attitude to take. Even people who voted Tory for decades are not 'real' Tories because of their unwillingness to sign up to something which was not Tory policy , it was BXP policy.
And he'd rather see sensible stalwarts like Richard leave in order to repatriate nutters and extremists from the BXP
The Brexit Party got 32% in the European Parliament elections and the LDs got 20%
Both the BXs and LDs took votes from the Tories. Which one is most likely to hang on to them in a General Election I wonder.
And, do the Conservatives want to pitch their appeal to the classes, or the masses?
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
If your idea of a Tory is someone who was attracted by Cameron and Osborne, then sure. Many of the "Tories" on here come across as affluent Liberal Democrats who got a bit confused back in 2005 by the conman hugging a husky.
I see posts on here calling for the Tories to be liberal. Eh? Why? The Conservatives should be conservative, and the Liberals liberal. In the same way the Labour Party should represent workers (labour).
So someone who liked Cameron or Osborne are not really Tories? This is like all those people who think we've not had a Labour government since the 70s.
It is a huge opportunity for the LDs, if they really want it. I am not convinced they do.
Agreed. I think they got hurt too bad when they had some power and saw their voting coalition collapse. I think they dont want that again.
It really is time you stopped quoting polls andstarted to look at some results. The only reason we may not get a Labour government is the state of the Labour party but I cannot see how a party led by Boris Johnson will ever win an election either.
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
If your idea of a Tory is someone who was attracted by Cameron and Osborne, then sure. Many of the "Tories" on here come across as affluent Liberal Democrats who got a bit confused back in 2005 by the conman hugging a husky.
I see posts on here calling for the Tories to be liberal. Eh? Why? The Conservatives should be conservative, and the Liberals liberal. In the same way the Labour Party should represent workers (labour).
So someone who liked Cameron or Osborne are not really Tories? This is like all those people who think we've not had a Labour government since the 70s.
It is a huge opportunity for the LDs, if they really want it. I am not convinced they do.
Agreed. I think they got hurt too bad when they had some power and saw their voting coalition collapse. I think they dont want that again.
The focus for the LibDems should be on consolidating among the educated younger and working age people, such that they recover a base of fifty or so seats mostly in the university towns, London and Home Counties towns - regaining the likes of Guidford, Cheltenham, Winchester etc. That should mean welcoming in Home Counties commuters and local small businesspeople who might under the old class-based politics have looked toward the Tories.
Yet another example of someone in current affairs moving away from the BBC and failing. I can't think of anyone who switched who even kept their reputation let alone enhanced it. Just a reminder of how good the production teams are at the BBC. Not just current affairs but drama too and there is no one who comes near them for expertise and professionalism.
All the more reason that the BBC should not pay superstar wages to its "talent".
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.
You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.
Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and just 12% voted LD
Fact remains that your target is a lot lower than your 2017 support. And to achieve even that you need to satisfy all these BXP people with Brexit in practice - which will be a lot different to Brexit in many of their fevered imaginations.
Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.
The Republican govenor of North Carolina lost his job because the electorate voted him out over transgender bathrooms.
Mr. Rentool, nothing's changed since yesterday, when you used that as an excuse to ignore the evidence of your own eyes and ears that McDonnell is far from a splendid fellow, no.
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
That’s batshit crazy.
It is the deluded lunacy of the fanatic. Sounds just like a Corbyn supporter. It is fuck the centre ground or any attempt to reach an compromise, we must be pure. We haven't had this level of zealotry in this country since the civil war
It’s not just fuck the centre ground, it’s fuck your own loyal members and voters. Utterly insane.
That is my view. I am a centrist Tory from the traditional liberal Ken Clarke wing. I have been a member for 20 years and was an activist for 7. I still have close friends who are councillors and MPs. I am only keeping my membership to vote against Boris, and will keep it beyond that to vote again in the almost certain likelihood there will be another leadership election a short time later if he wins.
It's not fair to say that the Conservative party is mutating into something that it has never been before. It's going back to its roots as the stupid party.
Alastair, your comments are normally interesting and well balanced, but that is just dumb. The Conservative Party has had some of the greatest minds and leaders of all time, hence why they have been so successful in the past. The dogmatic insanity that has now gripped a party that was once highly pragmatic is sad to see. It's current stupidity is only equalled or surpassed by the stupidity of the PLP that allowed an intellectual pigmy to be LoTO
It was a reference to the John Stuart Mill description.
Fair enough. He was of course referring to the Tory Party of old, so in that sense if you are looking back with that length of history you may be right
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.
You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.
Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and just 12% voted LD
Fact remains that your target is a lot lower than your 2017 support. And to achieve even that you need to satisfy all these BXP people with Brexit in practice - which will be a lot different to Brexit in many of their fevered imaginations.
Which given the defections of 2017 Labour voters to the LDs is not a concern given the splits on Brexit in Labour between Corbyn and Watson over EUref2
Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.
The Republican govenor of North Carolina lost his job because the electorate voted him out over transgender bathrooms.
Trump has had 4 years in power come 2020. If he has created jobs and cut immigration than he may keep the presidency otherwise he will find talking about it doesn't get anywhere..
And remember a lot of tariff changed haven't exactly helped a lot of american companies...
Did anyone watch Johnson’s web hustings last night? I only caught ten minutes and he tried to answer a question on promoting engineering in the UK. He couldn’t name a single one of ‘our great engineering heritage like .......’ claimed we led the world in battery technology. His debating style is appalling lacking any substance or basis in fact. I bet when he comes to the next election he will refuse to debate as he will be slaughtered by corbyn, Farage and Swinson.
It really is time you stopped quoting polls andstarted to look at some results. The only reason we may not get a Labour government is the state of the Labour party but I cannot see how a party led by Boris Johnson will ever win an election either.
Boris is the only Tory who could win an overall majority now, otherwise the Brexit Party will be too strong for a Tory majority under FPTP
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.
You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.
Indeed. It's an astounding attitude to take. Even people who voted Tory for decades are not 'real' Tories because of their unwillingness to sign up to something which was not Tory policy , it was BXP policy.
And he'd rather see sensible stalwarts like Richard leave in order to repatriate nutters and extremists from the BXP
The Brexit Party got 32% in the European Parliament elections and the LDs got 20%
Both the BXs and LDs took votes from the Tories. Which one is most likely to hang on to them in a General Election I wonder.
And, do the Conservatives want to pitch their appeal to the classes, or the masses?
Indeed, in 2017 the Tories did as well with C2s as they did with ABs.
However the LDs did far better with ABs than they did with C2s
Did anyone watch Johnson’s web hustings last night? I only caught ten minutes and he tried to answer a question on promoting engineering in the UK. He couldn’t name a single one of ‘our great engineering heritage like .......’ claimed we led the world in battery technology. His debating style is appalling lacking any substance or basis in fact. I bet when he comes to the next election he will refuse to debate as he will be slaughtered by corbyn, Farage and Swinson.
Once again it comes down to basic laziness. He just doesn't seem willing to put any effort at all into mastering the basics.
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
For the cult of Corbyn read the cult of Johnson. The death of the Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the most extraordinary and sudden political events of this or any other time.
Undergraduate essays will be set in future on yesterday's Julia Hartley-Brewer tweet.
That was truly remarkable: Brexit before country. But, to be fair, why should the an English nationalist party care about the Union? The issue the English Conservative's have will be post-Brexit when they are seeking to keep their new coalition together. The only way it happens is to go full Trump and start a major culture war while hoping that half of your voters do not notice that you are screwing them over financially and squeezing their services
Out of interest, could Boris (or May, I guess) call an election after Boris is leader but before he is PM?
So as to avoid any risk of being the shortest PM in history?
Don't see how Boris can. The PM can't call an election anymore. May can resign and tell the Queen there is no one on her side who can command confidence and so recommend sending for Jezza to have a go. There will then be 14 days for someone to show they can command. So I guess in theory Boris could emerge as PM in that case, but more likely we would just have an election.
Or, a motion could get the 2/3 of MPs to back a GE. But iirc that has to be a government motion so Boris couldn't rustle one up. But I could be wrong.
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
That’s batshit crazy.
It is the deluded lunacy of the fanatic. Sounds just like a Corbyn supporter. It is fuck the centre ground or any attempt to reach an compromise, we must be pure. We haven't had this level of zealotry in this country since the civil war
It’s not just fuck the centre ground, it’s fuck your own loyal members and voters. Utterly insane.
That is my view. I am a centrist Tory from the traditional liberal Ken Clarke wing. I have been a member for 20 years and was an activist for 7. I still have close friends who are councillors and MPs. I am only keeping my membership to vote against Boris, and will keep it beyond that to vote again in the almost certain likelihood there will be another leadership election a short time later if he wins.
OT. Thanks for your comment last night Nigel. It was very kind of you.
It really is time you stopped quoting polls andstarted to look at some results. The only reason we may not get a Labour government is the state of the Labour party but I cannot see how a party led by Boris Johnson will ever win an election either.
Boris is the only Tory who could win an overall majority now, otherwise the Brexit Party will be too strong for a Tory majority under FPTP
So you keep deluding yourself. However many times you say it will not convince those of us that think there is a bit more to being PM than being affable on a game show. Once again, please explain to us, what has Boris actually achieved in government or opposition? What positive difference has he made to people's lives and what managerial capability does he bring to a very very complex and demanding job. Anyone with half a brain knows the answer. He is the most unsuitable candidate (barring Mr Thicky Corbyn) for the post of PM since Michael Foot, and Michael Foot looked like a colossus of capability when compared to him.
The discontent amongst some of the more sane PB Tories is instructive. Their misgivings about Boris are clear.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Being Prime Minister is not a comedy turn with government trimmings and baubles thrown in. That many in the world think they are watching a nation become a circus is bad enough but worse is to come as a clown is about to hold centre stage as the 14th Prime Minister of the Queen's reign.
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
For the cult of Corbyn read the cult of Johnson. The death of the Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the most extraordinary and sudden political events of this or any other time.
Undergraduate essays will be set in future on yesterday's Julia Hartley-Brewer tweet.
That was truly remarkable: Brexit before country. But, to be fair, why should the an English nationalist party care about the Union? The issue the English Conservative's have will be post-Brexit when they are seeking to keep their new coalition together. The only way it happens is to go full Trump and start a major culture war while hoping that half of your voters do not notice that you are screwing them over financially and squeezing their services
Isnt that effectively what both sides have done for the last 50 years?
It really is time you stopped quoting polls andstarted to look at some results. The only reason we may not get a Labour government is the state of the Labour party but I cannot see how a party led by Boris Johnson will ever win an election either.
Boris is the only Tory who could win an overall majority now, otherwise the Brexit Party will be too strong for a Tory majority under FPTP
The above may be right, where your analysis is crazy is that it is worth betraying Conservative principles, not to mention your longer standing members, activists and MPs for a slim chance of winning one GE cycle, where even if you do win the govt is likely to be a disaster.
A coalition of the elderly and those with nothing is clearly unsustainable in the long term.
FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.
Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.
For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party
That’s batshit crazy.
It is the deluded lunacy of the fanatic. Sounds just like a Corbyn supporter. It is fuck the centre ground or any attempt to reach an compromise, we must be pure. We haven't had this level of zealotry in this country since the civil war
It’s not just fuck the centre ground, it’s fuck your own loyal members and voters. Utterly insane.
That is my view. I am a centrist Tory from the traditional liberal Ken Clarke wing. I have been a member for 20 years and was an activist for 7. I still have close friends who are councillors and MPs. I am only keeping my membership to vote against Boris, and will keep it beyond that to vote again in the almost certain likelihood there will be another leadership election a short time later if he wins.
OT. Thanks for your comment last night Nigel. It was very kind of you.
My pleasure. His attack was unpleasant. He may reflect on that perhaps.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
Out of interest, could Boris (or May, I guess) call an election after Boris is leader but before he is PM?
So as to avoid any risk of being the shortest PM in history?
With the FTPA, you'd need the votes (and two weeks) to get it through parliament. Labour would sign up but Theresa May might face opposition from Boris-backers, and Boris could in theory no-confidence his own side but in practice, as a backbencher, he'd find it hard to get a hearing.
It all sounds very unlikely and even the premise is surely wrong. To be prime minister even briefly is better than not to have been, for a senior politician. Boris has hinted he might (as PM) call a snap election but then Boris has hinted all sorts of things to different audiences.
Out of interest, could Boris (or May, I guess) call an election after Boris is leader but before he is PM?
So as to avoid any risk of being the shortest PM in history?
Actually I've thought about that and yes it is a possibility.
It is viable to have a general election with Boris leading it for Con as Con leader while Theresa May stays on to "manage" the country as PM.
Theresa would have to do all the formal stuff (present dissolution bill to Parliament, visit HMQ to inform her etc) I think
Would Boris want to take the risk. If he won less seats than TM (and that's highly possible as no one has a clue how things would work out) how long would he last?
Did anyone watch Johnson’s web hustings last night? I only caught ten minutes and he tried to answer a question on promoting engineering in the UK. He couldn’t name a single one of ‘our great engineering heritage like .......’ claimed we led the world in battery technology. His debating style is appalling lacking any substance or basis in fact. I bet when he comes to the next election he will refuse to debate as he will be slaughtered by corbyn, Farage and Swinson.
Once again it comes down to basic laziness. He just doesn't seem willing to put any effort at all into mastering the basics.
Indeed. Mastery of a brief is less important than his ego basking in the glow of gullible supporters like HYUFD
Out of interest, could Boris (or May, I guess) call an election after Boris is leader but before he is PM?
So as to avoid any risk of being the shortest PM in history?
Actually I've thought about that and yes it is a possibility.
It is viable to have a general election with Boris leading it for Con as Con leader while Theresa May stays on to "manage" the country as PM.
Theresa would have to do all the formal stuff (present dissolution bill to Parliament, visit HMQ to inform her etc) I think
Would Boris want to take the risk. If he won less seats than TM (and that's highly possible as no one has a clue how things would work out) how long would he last?
Oh I'm not saying its likely to happen just that it would be possible (if very odd) to have a Con leader leading a general election campaign while someone else is PM.
LOL! All the bullshit over the past week has made virtually no difference.
Who could have guessed that?
It is called closed mindset. It generally affects the fanatical, and if it is true that 40% of the membership have joined since 2016 we can assume sanity is unlikely to prevail.
Out of interest, could Boris (or May, I guess) call an election after Boris is leader but before he is PM?
So as to avoid any risk of being the shortest PM in history?
Don't see how Boris can. The PM can't call an election anymore. May can resign and tell the Queen there is no one on her side who can command confidence and so recommend sending for Jezza to have a go. There will then be 14 days for someone to show they can command. So I guess in theory Boris could emerge as PM in that case, but more likely we would just have an election.
Or, a motion could get the 2/3 of MPs to back a GE. But iirc that has to be a government motion so Boris couldn't rustle one up. But I could be wrong.
Under the FTPA Under section 7(4)–(6), the prime minister of the day is obliged to establish a committee to review the operation of the Act and to make recommendations for its amendment or repeal, if appropriate. The committee must be established between 1 June and 30 November 2020, and the majority of its members must be members of the House of Commons. That's, more or less, a quote from Wikipedia, which I assume is accurate. The Act doesn't say when the committee must report, but I would imagine it wouldn't be too difficult to stuff it with members who would quickly recommend repeal, although I believe Labour is, or was, in favour of fixed term Parliaments.
The discontent amongst some of the more sane PB Tories is instructive. Their misgivings about Boris are clear.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Being Prime Minister is not a comedy turn with government trimmings and baubles thrown in. That many in the world think they are watching a nation become a circus is bad enough but worse is to come as a clown is about to hold centre stage as the 14th Prime Minister of the Queen's reign.
I wonder if Her Majesty, at Christmas perhaps, after the Queen's Speech and washing-up, as a parlour game ever ranks her prime ministers by whichever criteria come to mind, say in order of soundness, intelligence or entertainment value.
So I am sure it has been covered here about Williamson being restated to Labour Party but I wanted to vent. I’m not sure what annoys me most but the most shocking personally is that I feel sorry for Boris. Last week he was questioned in the debate saying words have consequences. But that only seems to be the case if you are not Labour. In Labour it doesn’t seem to matter what you say or do, as long as you are signed up to a ‘woke’ set of values, then you can do or say something sexist, racist, homophobic or anti-Semitic, and you need to go on awareness training. Words do have consequences in as much as writing words in an action and actions have consequences. Boris has used some colourful and inappropriate language to describe women and minorities, but his actions regarding policy in this area are actually fairly liberal for a Tory. I also sense with Boris that it is part of his showmanship to use an extended vocabulary which extends sometimes into inappropriate language. Does this ultimately harm anyone? It’s not calling for the destruction of Israel, or lumping all Jews in with a global conspiracy. And this is not linked with left wing politics - Layla Moran should have been a leadership nominee for LDs but her past actions with regards to her public falling out with her partner seem to have scuppered that, as they would with a man.
I find it truly sinister that Williamson and his ilk are on the cusp of power, and the Jew conspiracies that I thought had long since disappeared into obscurity seem to be accepted by people who should know better.
The discontent amongst some of the more sane PB Tories is instructive. Their misgivings about Boris are clear.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Being Prime Minister is not a comedy turn with government trimmings and baubles thrown in. That many in the world think they are watching a nation become a circus is bad enough but worse is to come as a clown is about to hold centre stage as the 14th Prime Minister of the Queen's reign.
We're in the world of No Good Scenarios, Jack. It's not that people voting for Boris don't also have misgivings, it's that this is the only option that might - might - result in a survivable outcome.
The alternative is surrender, sadly. Doubtless many on this board would characterise it as surrendering to reality, but it's where we are.
Did anyone watch Johnson’s web hustings last night? I only caught ten minutes and he tried to answer a question on promoting engineering in the UK. He couldn’t name a single one of ‘our great engineering heritage like .......’ claimed we led the world in battery technology. His debating style is appalling lacking any substance or basis in fact. I bet when he comes to the next election he will refuse to debate as he will be slaughtered by corbyn, Farage and Swinson.
Once again it comes down to basic laziness. He just doesn't seem willing to put any effort at all into mastering the basics.
Indeed. Mastery of a brief is less important than his ego basking in the glow of gullible supporters like HYUFD
Although I then asked myself to name any uk leading engineer or scientist who was still alive, I was found seriously wanting although to a certain extent is it more to do with the fact we don’t ‘value’ them in the same way as other professions?
Except for the fact he’s made several derogatory remarks towards gay people so which Bozo is the real Bozo .
Or perhaps he supported gay marriage when it was politically expedient to do so . Johnson has no principles and there’s too much turd polishing by his supporters who want to forget his past history .
His entire past history is of throwing around colourful phrases for effect, without much thought for the consequences. Not a good attribute for a potential PM, to be sure, but who on earth could seriously think there was anything more to it than phrase-making?
Interesting comment by Richard. When you think of the number of Labour Party officials currently under suspension for the careless use of words you do wonder what sets Boris's apart. 'Bunmboys' 'piccanninis' 'watermelln smiles' 'pillar-box muslims' etc
How should the average Hartlipudlian differentiate Bulingdon Boy Boris's 'Phrase Making' from racist tweets by Labour officials from Bootle?
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
(1)An early parliamentary general election is to take place if—
(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (2), and
(b)if the motion is passed on a division, the number of members who vote in favour of the motion is a number equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).
(2)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (1)(a) is—
“That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Which is why they will pick Boris to win back Leavers from TBP while Corbyn continues to lose Remainers to the LDs
The discontent amongst some of the more sane PB Tories is instructive. Their misgivings about Boris are clear.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Being Prime Minister is not a comedy turn with government trimmings and baubles thrown in. That many in the world think they are watching a nation become a circus is bad enough but worse is to come as a clown is about to hold centre stage as the 14th Prime Minister of the Queen's reign.
Exactly right. It was clear that he would be the choice of the membership which has practically morphed into UKIP Mark 2 but I was surprised at how well he did with MPs. They will deserve the blame as well if not more because they have actually observed him close up.
Both parties really have lost it and it we are stuck in the strait-jacket of a FPTP voting system. Very hard to be optimistic about how this all plays out.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
It really is time you stopped quoting polls andstarted to look at some results. The only reason we may not get a Labour government is the state of the Labour party but I cannot see how a party led by Boris Johnson will ever win an election either.
Boris is the only Tory who could win an overall majority now, otherwise the Brexit Party will be too strong for a Tory majority under FPTP
The above may be right, where your analysis is crazy is that it is worth betraying Conservative principles, not to mention your longer standing members, activists and MPs for a slim chance of winning one GE cycle, where even if you do win the govt is likely to be a disaster.
A coalition of the elderly and those with nothing is clearly unsustainable in the long term.
A coalition of the eldely and skilled working class, the poor still vote Labour regardless
Did anyone watch Johnson’s web hustings last night? I only caught ten minutes and he tried to answer a question on promoting engineering in the UK. He couldn’t name a single one of ‘our great engineering heritage like .......’ claimed we led the world in battery technology. His debating style is appalling lacking any substance or basis in fact. I bet when he comes to the next election he will refuse to debate as he will be slaughtered by corbyn, Farage and Swinson.
Once again it comes down to basic laziness. He just doesn't seem willing to put any effort at all into mastering the basics.
Reagan could be lazy but was a brilliant President as he set the direction and had good advisers as Boris will.
Being a workaholic does not mean you will be a great leader, see Brown and May
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
I actually think Boris has already lost the Brexit flank unless he performs a miracle and we leave on October 31st. All his announcements have made him a hostage of fortune and if anything changes that flank is completely lost.
Did anyone watch Johnson’s web hustings last night? I only caught ten minutes and he tried to answer a question on promoting engineering in the UK. He couldn’t name a single one of ‘our great engineering heritage like .......’ claimed we led the world in battery technology. His debating style is appalling lacking any substance or basis in fact. I bet when he comes to the next election he will refuse to debate as he will be slaughtered by corbyn, Farage and Swinson.
Once again it comes down to basic laziness. He just doesn't seem willing to put any effort at all into mastering the basics.
Indeed. Mastery of a brief is less important than his ego basking in the glow of gullible supporters like HYUFD
Although I then asked myself to name any uk leading engineer or scientist who was still alive, I was found seriously wanting although to a certain extent is it more to do with the fact we don’t ‘value’ them in the same way as other professions?
Made me think, too. Prof Cox, of course. David Nutt. You're right; science and engineering are not seen as 'sexy' professions.
Today's thread is so far notable for containing even more than the usual amount of bile directed at anyone who has the temerity to advocate anything but Remain.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
I actually think Boris has already lost the Brexit flank unless he performs a miracle and we leave on October 31st. All his announcements have made him a hostage of fortune and if anything changes that flank is completely lost.
If, as he said last night, No Deal is a million to one against, surely he has already discounted it in his own head. So unless he conjures out a great deal between now and October I don't see how he kills off Farage
Today's thread is so far notable for containing even more than the usual amount of bile directed at anyone who has the temerity to advocate anything but Remain.
Well, hardly surprising. Leaving's such a silly idea!
Today's thread is so far notable for containing even more than the usual amount of bile directed at anyone who has the temerity to advocate anything but Remain.
My explanation is that Brexit’s turned out to be an utter shitshow, as was obvious to any sentient person from the outset.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
Your solution is for the Tory Party to be more extreme and put a dishonest buffoon in charge. You are a strategic genius.
Today's thread is so far notable for containing even more than the usual amount of bile directed at anyone who has the temerity to advocate anything but Remain.
Well, hardly surprising. Leaving's such a silly idea!
and it gets even more silly by the day. The show known as Pointless should rename itself Brexit. I wonder what the word may mean in the future. The verb to Brexit will probably mean to do something absurdly self harming that simultaneously helps your competitors and detractors.
To be fair, leadership contests can tend to be opportunities to burnish credentials of ideological purity but there's nothing like success or wanting to be on the winning side to tone down the ideological bluster. In the mid 1990s, there were those in Labour who had their doubts about Tony Blair but once he started looking like a winner and especially when he trounced the Conservatives, any such doubts melted away.
Any doubts about Boris Johnson will evaporate if he wins a majority or delivers Brexit but if he fails and especially if the consequences of that failure are a heavy electoral defeat and a prolonged spell of opposition his political future won't be terribly bright.
Where I am struggling is with the assertion from Boris that No Deal is a "million to one" but the EU are refusing to renegotiate the WA. The only conclusion I can draw is Boris is going to try to change the parliamentary arithmetic via an election to create what for him would be a "win-win" position - if he gets a majority he can either force through the WA as stands or just run the clock down to No Deal.
I'm still far from convinced there's a position around which his party and all its candidates can unite.
Morning all. I'm amused at being seen as an Orange Book LD. It's news to me that Vince Cable, Nick Clegg and Susan Kramer are enthusiastic admirers of Margaret Thatcher.
I think he's a better journalist than he is a politician but as much as he's hated by the left (and by Remainers) I think he'll do surprisingly well as PM.
He's much more liberal and generous of spirit than is claimed and will be far more likely to let others run their departments than control freaks like Brown and May.
Anybody who has read in depth about the Gordon Brown administration will be aware of how terribly dysfunctional and miserable it was. Ditto May.
Being a great thinker and big serious beast doesn't necessarily make a good leader.
(1)An early parliamentary general election is to take place if—
(a)the House of Commons passes a motion in the form set out in subsection (2), and
(b)if the motion is passed on a division, the number of members who vote in favour of the motion is a number equal to or greater than two thirds of the number of seats in the House (including vacant seats).
(2)The form of motion for the purposes of subsection (1)(a) is—
“That there shall be an early parliamentary general election.”
it seems to me that if BoJo wants an election like this, May could bring the motion and Corbyn will direct Labour to vote in favour (he could hardly oppose). Likely some dissent on each side of the House, but not enough I think.
Today's thread is so far notable for containing even more than the usual amount of bile directed at anyone who has the temerity to advocate anything but Remain.
Well, hardly surprising. Leaving's such a silly idea!
and it gets even more silly by the day. The show known as Pointless should rename itself Brexit. I wonder what the word may mean in the future. The verb to Brexit will probably mean to do something absurdly self harming that simultaneously helps your competitors and detractors.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
I actually think Boris has already lost the Brexit flank unless he performs a miracle and we leave on October 31st. All his announcements have made him a hostage of fortune and if anything changes that flank is completely lost.
If, as he said last night, No Deal is a million to one against, surely he has already discounted it in his own head. So unless he conjures out a great deal between now and October I don't see how he kills off Farage
2 competing priorities: 1.) Keep enough Remainer MPs pacified enough that they don't immediately VONC him. Hence the "million to one against" spin. Like the rest of us, he must recognise it's more like a million to one against getting a new deal; 2.) Burnish his Brexit credentials brightly enough that there he stands a chance of being able to take on TBP if he *does* get VONCed before 31/10 and has to fight a GE. Hence the ironclad 31/10 deadline.
If 1.) works, he talks down the clock and uses the powers of the Executive to (if it comes to it) exit with No Deal. If it comes to 2.), and he wins, well, then who knows?
Morning all. I'm amused at being seen as an Orange Book LD. It's news to me that Vince Cable, Nick Clegg and Susan Kramer are enthusiastic admirers of Margaret Thatcher.
To the ERG mob if you don't support crashing out of the EU they consider you a Marxist.
Can someone please explain to me why Chris Williamson is supposed to be anti-Semitic because he suggested the Labour Party had been “too apologetic”?
I mean, he is clearly a far left scumbag, but all of this anti-Semitic pearl clutching just leaves the average person confused.
I say this at the same time as believing that Labour has a significant anti-Semitism problem under Corbyn.
It's an accumulation of comments and actions over time. If you consistently and brazenly say things that you know are going to upset a specific ethnicity and you continue to do it despite being told consistently by a large majority of that community that your words and actions are causing them hurt and distress, then it is clear that you feel entitled to cause hurt and distress and that such feelings do not matter when suffered by members of that ethnic minority. When the ethnic minority in question is Jewish, that makes you an anti-Semite. Williamson's speech was part of a long-established pattern, it was not a one-off.
To be fair, leadership contests can tend to be opportunities to burnish credentials of ideological purity but there's nothing like success or wanting to be on the winning side to tone down the ideological bluster. In the mid 1990s, there were those in Labour who had their doubts about Tony Blair but once he started looking like a winner and especially when he trounced the Conservatives, any such doubts melted away.
Any doubts about Boris Johnson will evaporate if he wins a majority or delivers Brexit but if he fails and especially if the consequences of that failure are a heavy electoral defeat and a prolonged spell of opposition his political future won't be terribly bright.
Where I am struggling is with the assertion from Boris that No Deal is a "million to one" but the EU are refusing to renegotiate the WA. The only conclusion I can draw is Boris is going to try to change the parliamentary arithmetic via an election to create what for him would be a "win-win" position - if he gets a majority he can either force through the WA as stands or just run the clock down to No Deal.
I'm still far from convinced there's a position around which his party and all its candidates can unite.
Let alone the electorate.
Particularly if it were clear that even if the WA were forced through there wouldn't be time to pass the necessary legislation by 31 October.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
Your solution is for the Tory Party to be more extreme and put a dishonest buffoon in charge. You are a strategic genius.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
I actually think Boris has already lost the Brexit flank unless he performs a miracle and we leave on October 31st. All his announcements have made him a hostage of fortune and if anything changes that flank is completely lost.
If, as he said last night, No Deal is a million to one against, surely he has already discounted it in his own head. So unless he conjures out a great deal between now and October I don't see how he kills off Farage
Even if we leave with a No Deal Brexit he won't kill off Farage. Things will go wrong and Farage will blame Boris for the way he did it...
Haven written that I think my viewpoint is that Tory party is completely screwed - while the means of it's final demise isn't known yet there is no way of stopping support disappearing from both flanks
I see Merkel now looks increasingly unwell, though of course, only a doctor coul tell you what.
Dehydration or the heat may be a contributing factor, but it is difficult to believe that had it been the sole cause she would have allowed it to manifest on separate occasions.
Morning all. I'm amused at being seen as an Orange Book LD. It's news to me that Vince Cable, Nick Clegg and Susan Kramer are enthusiastic admirers of Margaret Thatcher.
To the ERG mob if you don't support crashing out of the EU they consider you a Marxist.
When the revolution comes, no-one will be pure enough.
Can someone please explain to me why Chris Williamson is supposed to be anti-Semitic because he suggested the Labour Party had been “too apologetic”?
I mean, he is clearly a far left scumbag, but all of this anti-Semitic pearl clutching just leaves the average person confused.
I say this at the same time as believing that Labour has a significant anti-Semitism problem under Corbyn.
I agree, surely they would need a case stronger than saying "too apologetic" to have sacked him. His attackers will undermine their case, if that is their main charge.
I think he's a better journalist than he is a politician but as much as he's hated by the left (and by Remainers) I think he'll do surprisingly well as PM.
He's much more liberal and generous of spirit than is claimed and will be far more likely to let others run their departments than control freaks like Brown and May.
Anybody who has read in depth about the Gordon Brown administration will be aware of how terribly dysfunctional and miserable it was. Ditto May.
Being a great thinker and big serious beast doesn't necessarily make a good leader.
What do you make of this though? Colluding in a plan to beat up a journalist - hardly speaks well of him.
Morning all. I'm amused at being seen as an Orange Book LD. It's news to me that Vince Cable, Nick Clegg and Susan Kramer are enthusiastic admirers of Margaret Thatcher.
David Laws certainly was but an Orange Book LD is not a Thatcherite, more a Macronite or Cleggite
Can someone please explain to me why Chris Williamson is supposed to be anti-Semitic because he suggested the Labour Party had been “too apologetic”?
I mean, he is clearly a far left scumbag, but all of this anti-Semitic pearl clutching just leaves the average person confused.
I say this at the same time as believing that Labour has a significant anti-Semitism problem under Corbyn.
See his support for Gilad Atzmon, amongst others. There has been a repeated pattern of behaviour of him siding with and supporting anti-semites and anti-semitic comments despite being previously warned. Falconer’s interview on the Today programme this morning, just after Thought for the Day, is worth listening to.
No, Boris wants to deliver a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum. If he wins a general election by October he can do that
Today's thread is so far notable for containing even more than the usual amount of bile directed at anyone who has the temerity to advocate anything but Remain.
We all have a responsibility to keep the debate civil and friendly. I am a passionate opponent of Brexit but I hope I have never been unfriendly or rude to any of the Leavers on this site, many of whom I am sure are wonderful people despite their adherence to this absurd and manifestly harmful course of action.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
I actually think Boris has already lost the Brexit flank unless he performs a miracle and we leave on October 31st. All his announcements have made him a hostage of fortune and if anything changes that flank is completely lost.
If, as he said last night, No Deal is a million to one against, surely he has already discounted it in his own head. So unless he conjures out a great deal between now and October I don't see how he kills off Farage
Even if we leave with a No Deal Brexit he won't kill off Farage. Things will go wrong and Farage will blame Boris for the way he did it...
Haven written that I think my viewpoint is that Tory party is completely screwed - while the means of it's final demise isn't known yet there is no way of stopping support disappearing from both flanks
The Brexit Party still get 13% under Boris with Yougov, they get 9% even if Boris delivers Brexit by October.
However Boris still wins a majority as he gets the Tories back to around 30% while Labour and the LDs are both on about 20 to 22% each with Labour still losing Remainers to the LDs while Boris wins back Leavers from the Brexit Party to the Tories
No, Boris wants to deliver a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum. If he wins a general election by October he can do that
If he wins an election in October he hasn't got time to deliver something the EU hasn't agreed to by October 31st... Any election after all September is going to require an extension and any extension gives Farage the ability to destroy Boris...
Can someone please explain to me why Chris Williamson is supposed to be anti-Semitic because he suggested the Labour Party had been “too apologetic”?
I mean, he is clearly a far left scumbag, but all of this anti-Semitic pearl clutching just leaves the average person confused.
I say this at the same time as believing that Labour has a significant anti-Semitism problem under Corbyn.
I agree, surely they would need a case stronger than saying "too apologetic" to have sacked him. His attackers will undermine their case, if that is their main charge.
It isn’t. And it’s worth noting that the Labour party investigative process thought there was sufficient basis for disciplinary action. That was overruled for no very good reason. So as well as the issues with Williamson himself Labour has now also managed to undermine its own investigative and disciplinary process - and it’s not as if it was a model of robust independence in the first place.
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Under Theresa May they've collapsed to 20-22% and polled 9% in a national election.
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
The Conservatives are in crisis, largely of May's and the ERG's making. May failed to occupy a consensus position from day one until just before MV3 and the ERG wanted a unicorn BREXIT. However the Tory solution to this nightmare is not to wake up to reality but to continue to sleepwalk into a deeper longer nightmare.
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
Continuity May (Hunt) would be out flanked by both the TBP and the Lib Dems. Go down that path and the Tories could be annihilated like the Canadian Tories in 1993. Being exposed on 2 flanks can be disastrous.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
I actually think Boris has already lost the Brexit flank unless he performs a miracle and we leave on October 31st. All his announcements have made him a hostage of fortune and if anything changes that flank is completely lost.
If, as he said last night, No Deal is a million to one against, surely he has already discounted it in his own head. So unless he conjures out a great deal between now and October I don't see how he kills off Farage
Even if we leave with a No Deal Brexit he won't kill off Farage. Things will go wrong and Farage will blame Boris for the way he did it...
Haven written that I think my viewpoint is that Tory party is completely screwed - while the means of it's final demise isn't known yet there is no way of stopping support disappearing from both flanks
Given the Corbyn and Watson civil war over EUref2 while Boris gets back Leavers it is Labour who may be screwed more than the Tories
No, Boris wants to deliver a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum. If he wins a general election by October he can do that
If he wins an election in October he hasn't got time to deliver something the EU hasn't agreed to by October 31st... Any election after all September is going to require an extension and any extension gives Farage the ability to destroy Boris...
He has, with a majority he passes the Withdrawal Agreement by October 31st minus the temporary Customs Union for GB.
He could then just hold a a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop
Comments
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48781165
So as to avoid any risk of being the shortest PM in history?
And remember a lot of tariff changed haven't exactly helped a lot of american companies...
However the LDs did far better with ABs than they did with C2s
Or, a motion could get the 2/3 of MPs to back a GE. But iirc that has to be a government motion so Boris couldn't rustle one up. But I could be wrong.
Who could have guessed that?
What is also clear is that when the wheels of Boris's bus fall off the Conservative MP's and party membership will have nobody to blame but themselves. They went into the upcoming catastrophe fully warned and chose to ignore the evidence.
Being Prime Minister is not a comedy turn with government trimmings and baubles thrown in. That many in the world think they are watching a nation become a circus is bad enough but worse is to come as a clown is about to hold centre stage as the 14th Prime Minister of the Queen's reign.
A coalition of the elderly and those with nothing is clearly unsustainable in the long term.
It is viable to have a general election with Boris leading it for Con as Con leader while Theresa May stays on to "manage" the country as PM.
Theresa would have to do all the formal stuff (present dissolution bill to Parliament, visit HMQ to inform her etc) I think
They are already in an existential crisis and passed the "nothing left to lose" barrier weeks ago...
It all sounds very unlikely and even the premise is surely wrong. To be prime minister even briefly is better than not to have been, for a senior politician. Boris has hinted he might (as PM) call a snap election but then Boris has hinted all sorts of things to different audiences.
That's, more or less, a quote from Wikipedia, which I assume is accurate. The Act doesn't say when the committee must report, but I would imagine it wouldn't be too difficult to stuff it with members who would quickly recommend repeal, although I believe Labour is, or was, in favour of fixed term Parliaments.
Words do have consequences in as much as writing words in an action and actions have consequences. Boris has used some colourful and inappropriate language to describe women and minorities, but his actions regarding policy in this area are actually fairly liberal for a Tory. I also sense with Boris that it is part of his showmanship to use an extended vocabulary which extends sometimes into inappropriate language. Does this ultimately harm anyone? It’s not calling for the destruction of Israel, or lumping all Jews in with a global conspiracy. And this is not linked with left wing politics - Layla Moran should have been a leadership nominee for LDs but her past actions with regards to her public falling out with her partner seem to have scuppered that, as they would with a man.
I find it truly sinister that Williamson and his ilk are on the cusp of power, and the Jew conspiracies that I thought had long since disappeared into obscurity seem to be accepted by people who should know better.
The alternative is surrender, sadly. Doubtless many on this board would characterise it as surrendering to reality, but it's where we are.
How should the average Hartlipudlian differentiate Bulingdon Boy Boris's 'Phrase Making' from racist tweets by Labour officials from Bootle?
The "nothing to lose" position is being outflanked by TBP and the LibDems with Prime Minister Corbyn heading a minority government or worse.
I mean, he is clearly a far left scumbag, but all of this anti-Semitic pearl clutching just leaves the average person confused.
I say this at the same time as believing that Labour has a significant anti-Semitism problem under Corbyn.
Both parties really have lost it and it we are stuck in the strait-jacket of a FPTP voting system. Very hard to be optimistic about how this all plays out.
Doesn't look like that is the case though. If the Tories choose Boris and if he sticks to his word then they will have the Lib Dems attacking on one flank but they can defend the other flank. It may mean they lose the next election (nothing but Corbyn may prevent that now) but at least the party can survive.
Being a workaholic does not mean you will be a great leader, see Brown and May
You're right; science and engineering are not seen as 'sexy' professions.
Edited for silly mistake!
Has Chris Williamson said that?
What’s yours?
To be fair, leadership contests can tend to be opportunities to burnish credentials of ideological purity but there's nothing like success or wanting to be on the winning side to tone down the ideological bluster. In the mid 1990s, there were those in Labour who had their doubts about Tony Blair but once he started looking like a winner and especially when he trounced the Conservatives, any such doubts melted away.
Any doubts about Boris Johnson will evaporate if he wins a majority or delivers Brexit but if he fails and especially if the consequences of that failure are a heavy electoral defeat and a prolonged spell of opposition his political future won't be terribly bright.
Where I am struggling is with the assertion from Boris that No Deal is a "million to one" but the EU are refusing to renegotiate the WA. The only conclusion I can draw is Boris is going to try to change the parliamentary arithmetic via an election to create what for him would be a "win-win" position - if he gets a majority he can either force through the WA as stands or just run the clock down to No Deal.
I'm still far from convinced there's a position around which his party and all its candidates can unite.
I think he's a better journalist than he is a politician but as much as he's hated by the left (and by Remainers) I think he'll do surprisingly well as PM.
He's much more liberal and generous of spirit than is claimed and will be far more likely to let others run their departments than control freaks like Brown and May.
Anybody who has read in depth about the Gordon Brown administration will be aware of how terribly dysfunctional and miserable it was. Ditto May.
Being a great thinker and big serious beast doesn't necessarily make a good leader.
Boris's honeymoon looks set to be shorter than the infant Ronnie Corbett.
1.) Keep enough Remainer MPs pacified enough that they don't immediately VONC him. Hence the "million to one against" spin. Like the rest of us, he must recognise it's more like a million to one against getting a new deal;
2.) Burnish his Brexit credentials brightly enough that there he stands a chance of being able to take on TBP if he *does* get VONCed before 31/10 and has to fight a GE. Hence the ironclad 31/10 deadline.
If 1.) works, he talks down the clock and uses the powers of the Executive to (if it comes to it) exit with No Deal. If it comes to 2.), and he wins, well, then who knows?
Particularly if it were clear that even if the WA were forced through there wouldn't be time to pass the necessary legislation by 31 October.
Haven written that I think my viewpoint is that Tory party is completely screwed - while the means of it's final demise isn't known yet there is no way of stopping support disappearing from both flanks
Dehydration or the heat may be a contributing factor, but it is difficult to believe that had it been the sole cause she would have allowed it to manifest on separate occasions.
His attackers will undermine their case, if that is their main charge.
https://twitter.com/PeoplesMomentum/status/1143883885547331586
However Boris still wins a majority as he gets the Tories back to around 30% while Labour and the LDs are both on about 20 to 22% each with Labour still losing Remainers to the LDs while Boris wins back Leavers from the Brexit Party to the Tories
He could then just hold a a confirmatory referendum in NI on the backstop