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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Warren consolidates her position as the main challenger to Joe Biden in the first of the Democratic nominee debates

Overnight we have had the first of the Democratic debates held in Miami in the possible swing state of florida which the party needs to win next year if it is to have a chance of beating Trump.

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DecrepitJohnL

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Nigelb

Warren’s raised hand to the question about scrapping private health insurance is a possible hostage to fortune, but she had a good night.

And I’m hoping for a Booker bump, as having backed and laid him for a small profit earlier, I’m still quite green.

Nigelb

The party and the TV networks need to find a mechanism to hone it down to only those with a real chance.

There’s already one - called harsh reality.
Four or five of last night’s candidates could well drop out over the next few weeks, as that was their big opportunity.

Against that, there is the small matter of ego....

DecrepitJohnL

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

SquareRoot

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Grammar police

an uninspring

DecrepitJohnL

Nigelb said:

The party and the TV networks need to find a mechanism to hone it down to only those with a real chance.

There’s already one - called harsh reality.
Four or five of last night’s candidates could well drop out over the next few weeks, as that was their big opportunity.

Against that, there is the small matter of ego....

Was Trump a proper candidate four years ago against Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Mike Huckabee, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie and others I've forgotten? Trump dominated the first debate, but would he have been there at all if limited to serious politicians?

TheJezziah

https://twitter.com/ewarren/status/1144086118465515520

Bernie gets a positive mention when not even in the debate... need a big performance from him tomorrow!

Good answer from Warren, as usual.

Pulpstar

Nigelb said:

Warren’s raised hand to the question about scrapping private health insurance is a possible hostage to fortune, but she had a good night.

And I’m hoping for a Booker bump, as having backed and laid him for a small profit earlier, I’m still quite green.

How did Booker do ?

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

I was referring to Macdonnell and his surreal economic 'costings.'

But the others are barely better, which is why I said 'at least.'

ydoethur

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Even Clinton should have beaten Trump, although she didn't. That should be a warning this time.

I doubt if Biden would be a noticeably better President than Johnson would Prime Minister. He's a clown.

Streeter

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Even Clinton should have beaten Trump, although she didn't. That should be a warning this time.

I doubt if Biden would be a noticeably better President than Johnson would Prime Minister. He's a clown.

Is there any politician you _do_ like?

eristdoof

PaulM said:

Warren has some detailed policy ideas, but it all has the air of a Student Union election where everyone is trying to one-up everyone else as to how progressive they are. They aren't just going after Trump,they are going after the last 80- years

But this is the problem with primaries especially at this early stage is you are running two campaigns at once. The main aim is to get enough registered democrats to vote for you. The second aim is not to box yourself in to a corner so that, if selected as democrat nominee, you can get enough votes acfoss all electors to win 271 Electoral College votes.

Casino_Royale

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

CarlottaVance

For once, I agree with Rachael:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1143968531756830720

Casino_Royale

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

I thought Michael Gove had been eliminated?

matt

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

I was referring to Macdonnell and his surreal economic 'costings.'

But the others are barely better, which is why I said 'at least.'

They’re fully costed. I’ve read it here. One doesn’t get fantasists, dissemblers and liars here, surely?

Morris_Dancer

Bugger. Thought I'd backed Warren. Ah well. If Biden or Harris gets it, that's fine.

Cicero

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Well, quite. and likewise the idea that arch-Conservatives like Rory Stewart are actually "really" Liberal Democrats.

williamglenn

Translation: this is how to tempt Corbyn into fully backing a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1144119529729138689?s=21

Roger

CarlottaVance said:

For once, I agree with Rachael:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1143968531756830720

Yet another example of someone in current affairs moving away from the BBC and failing. I can't think of anyone who switched who even kept their reputation let alone enhanced it. Just a reminder of how good the production teams are at the BBC. Not just current affairs but drama too and there is no one who comes near them for expertise and professionalism.

ydoethur

williamglenn said:

Translation: this is how to tempt Corbyn into fully backing a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1144119529729138689?s=21

The best way would be to stop hinting that the Russians had something to do with it and persuade him it's all a CIA plot to bring NATO more closely under US control.

He'd switch to Revoke and join the Euro faster than you can say 'fully costed manifesto.'

Casino_Royale

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

I thought Michael Gove had been eliminated?

Is Rory doing walks in Florida?

ydoethur

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

I thought Michael Gove had been eliminated?

Is Rory doing walks in Florida?

Are you saying he'll stick at nothing?

williamglenn

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

Translation: this is how to tempt Corbyn into fully backing a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1144119529729138689?s=21

The best way would be to stop hinting that the Russians had something to do with it and persuade him it's all a CIA plot to bring NATO more closely under US control.

He'd switch to Revoke and join the Euro faster than you can say 'fully costed manifesto.'

https://twitter.com/hackneyabbott/status/1144120589340356609?s=21

OldKingCole

Roger said:

CarlottaVance said:

For once, I agree with Rachael:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1143968531756830720

Yet another example of someone in current affairs moving away from the BBC and failing. I can't think of anyone who switched who even kept their reputation let alone enhanced it. Just a reminder of how good the production teams are at the BBC. Not just current affairs but drama too and there is no one who comes near them for expertise and professionalism.

Good God, what was Peston thinking? Of all the insensitive, intrusive.......

Dreadful.

OblitusSumMe

Casino_Royale said:

ydoethur said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

I thought Michael Gove had been eliminated?

Is Rory doing walks in Florida?

He's pledged to walk in every county* if he becomes President.

* There are 3,007 counties in the US, so Rory would need to visit slightly more than two every day to make it round them all in a four-year term.

DecrepitJohnL

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

I was referring to Macdonnell and his surreal economic 'costings.'

But the others are barely better, which is why I said 'at least.'

Your issue with McDonnell's costings in 2017 appeared to be that he had not accounted for the vast costs associated with something not actually in the manifesto.

Anyway, since all parties lost the 2017 election, perhaps it is time to move on.

rcs1000

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

It's tighter than it looks. FiveThirtyEight examined a poll that asked:

"How much attention have you paid to the current Democratic nomination?"

For people who said "None" or "Hardly any", Biden lead the pack by a massive margin. For those who said "a lot", then he was behind Sanders, and barely ahead of Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

Simply, the more people see of Biden, the less impressed they are.

And this is why he's polling relatively poorly in NH and Iowa. See - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/iowa/

If Biden doesn't win Iowa or NH, then his aura of invincibility is going to be looking rather tarnished.

I'm not saying he's not the favourite (given his overall polling, he surely is), but I am saying his lead is more precarious than we might think.

Nigelb

SquareRoot said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Grammar police

an uninspring

Not grammar - just my bleary eyes early in the morning. Also beat, not bear.....

Scott_P

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1144130468406857728

Are the members votes tallied locally?

I wondering if, like Brexit, Scottish members vote for a different result than English members...

Nigelb

Pulpstar said:

Nigelb said:

Warren’s raised hand to the question about scrapping private health insurance is a possible hostage to fortune, but she had a good night.

And I’m hoping for a Booker bump, as having backed and laid him for a small profit earlier, I’m still quite green.

How did Booker do ?

Well, in the circumstances of a ten person debate. His line about refusing to be the VP for a male presidential candidate was a smart one in the attention stakes.

ydoethur

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

I was referring to Macdonnell and his surreal economic 'costings.'

But the others are barely better, which is why I said 'at least.'

Your issue with McDonnell's costings in 2017 appeared to be that he had not accounted for the vast costs associated with something not actually in the manifesto.

Anyway, since all parties lost the 2017 election, perhaps it is time to move on.

My issue with McDonnell's costings was that all of them were blatantly fraudulent. £300 million for extra police (actual cost: £1 billion) free school meals for every state school child paid for by a tax that would have raised no money but would have increased state school numbers, no money set aside for renationalising water (cost: £90 billion) and an unfunded pledge to abolish tuition fees and write off extant debt.

I have demonstrated this repeatedly with ample evidence to show you that your touching faith in his integrity is wrong. But you will not see it. It's odd, because on every other issue you are very shrewd and certainly always worth reading, but here you have a bit of a blind spot.

Anyway, I have to get to work. Have a good morning.

IanB2

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

It's tighter than it looks. FiveThirtyEight examined a poll that asked:

"How much attention have you paid to the current Democratic nomination?"

For people who said "None" or "Hardly any", Biden lead the pack by a massive margin. For those who said "a lot", then he was behind Sanders, and barely ahead of Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

Simply, the more people see of Biden, the less impressed they are.

And this is why he's polling relatively poorly in NH and Iowa. See - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/iowa/

If Biden doesn't win Iowa or NH, then his aura of invincibility is going to be looking rather tarnished.

I'm not saying he's not the favourite (given his overall polling, he surely is), but I am saying his lead is more precarious than we might think.

Or alternatively those not following things have heard of the former VP and not heard of the others.

That said, I don't think Biden will win.

Morris_Dancer

That Peston clip is not an edifying spectacle.

He should interview Boris, and the pair can implode under the sheer gravity of bloody stupid questions and bloody stupid answers.

TGOHF

ydoethur said:

williamglenn said:

Translation: this is how to tempt Corbyn into fully backing a second referendum.

https://twitter.com/mattzarb/status/1144119529729138689?s=21

The best way would be to stop hinting that the Russians had something to do with it and persuade him it's all a CIA plot to bring NATO more closely under US control.

He'd switch to Revoke and join the Euro faster than you can say 'fully costed manifesto.'

Easier than that - tell him the Jews like Brexit.

Nigelb

ydoethur said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Even Clinton should have beaten Trump, although she didn't. That should be a warning this time.

I doubt if Biden would be a noticeably better President than Johnson would Prime Minister. He's a clown.

Well he was more or less a surrogate foreign secretary while Obama’s VP, and conspicuously less ridiculous than Johnson, and proved able to survive a lengthy spell in national office.

My biggest fear of a Biden presidency - that he would stall climate change action - has receded.

He would be a mediocre choice, but if he survives the nomination battle, he would beat Trump.

Viceroy_of_Orange

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

If your idea of a Tory is someone who was attracted by Cameron and Osborne, then sure. Many of the "Tories" on here come across as affluent Liberal Democrats who got a bit confused back in 2005 by the conman hugging a husky.

I see posts on here calling for the Tories to be liberal. Eh? Why? The Conservatives should be conservative, and the Liberals liberal. In the same way the Labour Party should represent workers (labour).

SquareRoot

Nigelb said:

SquareRoot said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Grammar police

an uninspring

Not grammar - just my bleary eyes early in the morning. Also beat, not bear.....

absolution granted

TheJezziah

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

I was referring to Macdonnell and his surreal economic 'costings.'

But the others are barely better, which is why I said 'at least.'

Your issue with McDonnell's costings in 2017 appeared to be that he had not accounted for the vast costs associated with something not actually in the manifesto.

Anyway, since all parties lost the 2017 election, perhaps it is time to move on.

I figured he was just trolling, the deliberate misspelling of the name is a giveaway... I try not to rise to it.

Nigelb

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

It's tighter than it looks. FiveThirtyEight examined a poll that asked:

"How much attention have you paid to the current Democratic nomination?"

For people who said "None" or "Hardly any", Biden lead the pack by a massive margin. For those who said "a lot", then he was behind Sanders, and barely ahead of Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

Simply, the more people see of Biden, the less impressed they are.

And this is why he's polling relatively poorly in NH and Iowa. See - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/iowa/

If Biden doesn't win Iowa or NH, then his aura of invincibility is going to be looking rather tarnished.

I'm not saying he's not the favourite (given his overall polling, he surely is), but I am saying his lead is more precarious than we might think.

That’s one interpretation; the other is that the choice of political obsessives (who are over represented in NH and Iowa) will continue to be different from that of those who just turn up to vote.

I’d agree that his lead is brittle, but unless something precipitates a substantial fracture, it could remain sufficiently durable to hand him the nomination. The polling in the small early voting states is very different from that in (for example) Florida and California.
And voters in the large states simply will not get the same exposure to the candidates.

edmundintokyo

eristdoof said:

But this is the problem with primaries especially at this early stage is you are running two campaigns at once. The main aim is to get enough registered democrats to vote for you. The second aim is not to box yourself in to a corner so that, if selected as democrat nominee, you can get enough votes acfoss all electors to win 271 Electoral College votes.

Yglesias reckoned Warren was doing some smart politicsing in this debate: She made a (in his view calculated) commitment on healthcare to avoid getting outflanked by Bernie, but she dodged taking potentially centrist-repellent positions on other issues like gun control:

https://www.vox.com/2019/6/26/18760656/democratic-debate-elizabeth-warren-won

Viceroy_of_Orange

Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.

SouthamObserver

Another superb article from Simon Kuper on how English nostalgia explains the rise of Johnson, Rees Mogg, Corbyn and co. He really is an incredibly insightful commentator:

https://www.ft.com/content/5e4e0094-9796-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36?shareType=nongift

rcs1000

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.

Trump will win if people feel better off and more secure, and lose if they do not.

edmundintokyo

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.

They're definitely talking about climate change, but can you give us some examples of the leading Democratic candidates choosing to talk about transgender bathrooms???

HYUFD

I think Warren or Sanders will likely win the Democratic nomination in the end, not Biden and that will be a boost to Trump's re election chances. Both Iowa and New Hampshire of the early caucuses and primaries could be Warren or Sanders wins.

If Warren won the debate last night and Biden bombs tonight that will just cement that trend.

O'Rourke may no longer be a contender for the presidential nomination but could still be a VP pick

HYUFD

Nigelb said:

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

It's tighter than it looks. FiveThirtyEight examined a poll that asked:

"How much attention have you paid to the current Democratic nomination?"

For people who said "None" or "Hardly any", Biden lead the pack by a massive margin. For those who said "a lot", then he was behind Sanders, and barely ahead of Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

Simply, the more people see of Biden, the less impressed they are.

And this is why he's polling relatively poorly in NH and Iowa. See - https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/iowa/

If Biden doesn't win Iowa or NH, then his aura of invincibility is going to be looking rather tarnished.

I'm not saying he's not the favourite (given his overall polling, he surely is), but I am saying his lead is more precarious than we might think.

That’s one interpretation; the other is that the choice of political obsessives (who are over represented in NH and Iowa) will continue to be different from that of those who just turn up to vote.

I’d agree that his lead is brittle, but unless something precipitates a substantial fracture, it could remain sufficiently durable to hand him the nomination. The polling in the small early voting states is very different from that in (for example) Florida and California.
And voters in the large states simply will not get the same exposure to the candidates.

No Democratic presidential nominee has failed to win at least won of Iowa and New Hampshire since Bill Clinton and Clinton still came a strong second in New Hampshire in 1992

CarlottaVance

Cicero said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Well, quite. and likewise the idea that arch-Conservatives like Rory Stewart are actually "really" Liberal Democrats.

Or that Dominic Grieve isn't a "Conservative".

I disagree with him on much - but there's no doubt he is a Conservative.

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

SouthamObserver

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Wow! I just saw that. I disagree with Richard on so many things, but he is undoubtedly a pragmatic patriot focused on enablement and then getting the state out of the way. He is what I always imagined most Tories to be. If he believes that his party has left him then the old Conservative and Unionist Party is well and truly dead. All I can say is that I know the feeling! It's also very bad news for the UK.

HYUFD

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1144130468406857728

Are the members votes tallied locally?

I wondering if, like Brexit, Scottish members vote for a different result than English members...

Yougov this week has Boris leading Hunt 57% to 43% with Scottish Tory members and 74% to 26% with Tory members overall

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/25/incredible-rise-and-fall-and-rise-boris-johnson

IanB2

Yesterday Germany, Czechia and Poland recorded their highest ever June temperatures, with parts of France and Switzerland recording their all time highest temperature (which is remarkable given the usual temperature differential between August and June).

Given the forecast of an even hotter end to this week, more records are sure to fall.

Today's forecast suggests that Spain inland from Barcelona will be the hottest spot.

The peak in the UK is forecast for Saturday.

Roger

Cicero said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Well, quite. and likewise the idea that arch-Conservatives like Rory Stewart are actually "really" Liberal Democrats.

The Tories are becoming an unmetropolitan party which is good news for the Lib Dems. It's extraordinary to see what's happened to the party Cameron 'modernised' just ten years ago. I wonder whether he'll be voting Lib Dem?

HYUFD

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

Boris has a bigger lead with Tory members than Biden does with Democratic primary voters

SquareRoot

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1144130468406857728

Are the members votes tallied locally?

I wondering if, like Brexit, Scottish members vote for a different result than English members...

Yougov this week has Boris leading Hunt 57% to 43% with Scottish Tory members and 74% to 26% with Tory members overall

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/25/incredible-rise-and-fall-and-rise-boris-johnson

How do they know they are Tory members .. for certain?

IanB2

Roger said:

Cicero said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Well, quite. and likewise the idea that arch-Conservatives like Rory Stewart are actually "really" Liberal Democrats.

The Tories are becoming an unmetropolitan party which is good news for the Lib Dems. It's extraordinary to see what's happened to the party Cameron 'modernised' just ten years ago. I wonder whether he'll be voting Lib Dem?

It's a consequence of their becoming the Pensioners Party.

HYUFD

CarlottaVance said:

For once, I agree with Rachael:

https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1143968531756830720

Considering Robert Peston lost his own wife a few years ago I would have thought Robert could have been a bit more sensitive in his questioning yes

Nigel_Foremain

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

If your idea of a Tory is someone who was attracted by Cameron and Osborne, then sure. Many of the "Tories" on here come across as affluent Liberal Democrats who got a bit confused back in 2005 by the conman hugging a husky.

I see posts on here calling for the Tories to be liberal. Eh? Why? The Conservatives should be conservative, and the Liberals liberal. In the same way the Labour Party should represent workers (labour).

You are a simplistic fool. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church, but essentially the clue is in the name, but its history since 1912 has held a very strong liberal element. It is/was essentially about stability. Other things are ephemeral and are accounted for in the different wings of the party.

All of this has been turned on its head by the fact that people with your simplistic very right wing views have taken over the party. It is no longer about stability. It is now about absurd simplistic ideologies, and the main obsession is Brexit, which is irrational destabilising and is an extension of the foreign policy agenda of Russia, so not very patriotic either.

In a traditional sense Brexit is highly unconservative. It is the reason why the Conservative Party may well die. The only thing keeping it alive at the moment is the fear of Mr Thicky as the alternative. When Boris is PM it will be a choice between one type of clown or another

CarlottaVance

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/GlennBBC/status/1144130468406857728

Are the members votes tallied locally?

I wondering if, like Brexit, Scottish members vote for a different result than English members...

Yougov this week has Boris leading Hunt 57% to 43% with Scottish Tory members and 74% to 26% with Tory members overall

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/25/incredible-rise-and-fall-and-rise-boris-johnson

https://twitter.com/scotpolitics/status/1144141287882444800

IanB2

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.

You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.

SquareRoot

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Wow! I just saw that. I disagree with Richard on so many things, but he is undoubtedly a pragmatic patriot focused on enablement and then getting the state out of the way. He is what I always imagined most Tories to be. If he believes that his party has left him then the old Conservative and Unionist Party is well and truly dead. All I can say is that I know the feeling! It's also very bad news for the UK.

I voted LD at the Euro's , I would naturally want to support my Tory MP in a GE.. but not sure that is a given any more.

AlastairMeeks

It's not fair to say that the Conservative party is mutating into something that it has never been before. It's going back to its roots as the stupid party.

IanB2

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Wow! I just saw that. I disagree with Richard on so many things, but he is undoubtedly a pragmatic patriot focused on enablement and then getting the state out of the way. He is what I always imagined most Tories to be. If he believes that his party has left him then the old Conservative and Unionist Party is well and truly dead. All I can say is that I know the feeling! It's also very bad news for the UK.

I voted LD at the Euro's , I would naturally want to support my Tory MP in a GE.. but not sure that is a given any more.

There are enough of you now to form a PBexTory group.

Recidivist

SquareRoot said:

Nigelb said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

For once, I must disagree with you.
Biden is objectively a uninspiring (and superannuated) candidate, but he’d probably bear Trump, and probably be fine in the White House, being essentially a moderate conservative.

Grammar police

an uninspring

Grammar police.

It's not An Widdicombe. It's a A Widdicombe.

Jonathan

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

That’s batshit crazy.

Morris_Dancer

Mr. HYUFD, I've since seen that Peston did ask beforehand if that line of questioning was ok, but still an error of judgement, I suspect.

Barnesian

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.

He's likely to win if he starts a war with Iran and the nation comes together to support him.

Nigel_Foremain

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not fair to say that the Conservative party is mutating into something that it has never been before. It's going back to its roots as the stupid party.

Alastair, your comments are normally interesting and well balanced, but that is just dumb. The Conservative Party has had some of the greatest minds and leaders of all time, hence why they have been so successful in the past. The dogmatic insanity that has now gripped a party that was once highly pragmatic is sad to see. It's current stupidity is only equalled or surpassed by the stupidity of the PLP that allowed an intellectual pigmy to be LoTO

AlastairMeeks

You have to admire the civic dedication of those Americans who choose to watch the equivalent of the Eurovision semifinal with Armenia, Slovakia and Moldova.

Opinion formers will have an outsize influence. That's good news for Elizabeth Warren, though I still think she would have benefited more by being seen next to Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

Nigel_Foremain

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Wow! I just saw that. I disagree with Richard on so many things, but he is undoubtedly a pragmatic patriot focused on enablement and then getting the state out of the way. He is what I always imagined most Tories to be. If he believes that his party has left him then the old Conservative and Unionist Party is well and truly dead. All I can say is that I know the feeling! It's also very bad news for the UK.

I voted LD at the Euro's , I would naturally want to support my Tory MP in a GE.. but not sure that is a given any more.

Ditto

Jonathan

Nigel_Foremain said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not fair to say that the Conservative party is mutating into something that it has never been before. It's going back to its roots as the stupid party.

Alastair, your comments are normally interesting and well balanced, but that is just dumb. The Conservative Party has had some of the greatest minds and leaders of all time, hence why they have been so successful in the past. The dogmatic insanity that has now gripped a party that was once highly pragmatic is sad to see. It's current stupidity is only equalled or surpassed by the stupidity of the PLP that allowed an intellectual pigmy to be LoTO

The Tory Party has not had some of the greatest minds of all time. Unless you are referring to Jeffrey Archer?

SouthamObserver

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

For the cult of Corbyn read the cult of Johnson. The death of the Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the most extraordinary and sudden political events of this or any other time.

Morris_Dancer

As long as Corbyn's Labour leader, or someone of his ilk is, I'll be voting Conservative at the next General Election.

If Labour elected someone sane, and the Conservatives go for Boris...

kle4

matt said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

As expected, really. Warren was the only star on show, and now is front-runner for 24 hours.

She'd be better than Biden.

But that's like saying somebody would run a more effective economic policy than Chavez and Maduro.

(Unfortunately we can't even say that about at least one of our parties at this moment, @dixiedean's increasingly desperate attempts to do so aside.)

You mean Hunt and Boris's unfunded, deficit-busting giveaways? Even their own party's Chancellor has warned against them.

I was referring to Macdonnell and his surreal economic 'costings.'

But the others are barely better, which is why I said 'at least.'

They’re fully costed. I’ve read it here. One doesn’t get fantasists, dissemblers and liars here, surely?

We prefer to be called 'creatives'.

Jonathan

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

For the cult of Corbyn read the cult of Johnson. The death of the Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the most extraordinary and sudden political events of this or any other time.

It could be a summer of madness, he could be gone by Xmas.

Nigel_Foremain

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

That’s batshit crazy.

It is the deluded lunacy of the fanatic. Sounds just like a Corbyn supporter. It is fuck the centre ground or any attempt to reach an compromise, we must be pure. We haven't had this level of zealotry in this country since the civil war

Alistair

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

The Democrat race makes the Tory leadership contest look tight.

It's tighter than it looks. FiveThirtyEight examined a poll that asked:

"How much attention have you paid to the current Democratic nomination?"

For people who said "None" or "Hardly any", Biden lead the pack by a massive margin. For those who said "a lot", then he was behind Sanders, and barely ahead of Buttigieg, Harris and Warren.

.

Ding Ding Ding ding.

As I have been banging on and on Warren is doing best amongst political obsessives. We are now entering the period where state by state the Dem primary voters are goi g to go from low imformation to high information voters. National polls will show Biden well in the lead whilst early primary state polls will show Warren catching up/surpassing Biden.

"Being Obama's VP" is the entirety of his message. That inside-baseball-political-savvy article from 538 saying that Biden's gaffes will help him with African Americans (the Dem demographic Biden completely dominates) looks a lot like their "Trump cannot win" article from 2015 even as trump was increasing his poll leads. Biden's poll leads are shrinking.

I am on Warren and have been for a while.

OnlyLivingBoy

edmundintokyo said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Trump is likely to win in 2020 for one simple reason, he is talking jobs and immigration whilst the Democrats talk transgender bathrooms and climate change.

They're definitely talking about climate change, but can you give us some examples of the leading Democratic candidates choosing to talk about transgender bathrooms???

Yeah the only people who talk about transgender bathrooms are Republicans, who have a weird obsession with what other people get up to in private, and let's face it are no strangers to toilet-based sexual shenanigans.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Larry_Craig_scandal

AlastairMeeks

Nigel_Foremain said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not fair to say that the Conservative party is mutating into something that it has never been before. It's going back to its roots as the stupid party.

Alastair, your comments are normally interesting and well balanced, but that is just dumb. The Conservative Party has had some of the greatest minds and leaders of all time, hence why they have been so successful in the past. The dogmatic insanity that has now gripped a party that was once highly pragmatic is sad to see. It's current stupidity is only equalled or surpassed by the stupidity of the PLP that allowed an intellectual pigmy to be LoTO

It was a reference to the John Stuart Mill description.

Jonathan

Nigel_Foremain said:

Jonathan said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

That’s batshit crazy.

It is the deluded lunacy of the fanatic. Sounds just like a Corbyn supporter. It is fuck the centre ground or any attempt to reach an compromise, we must be pure. We haven't had this level of zealotry in this country since the civil war

It’s not just fuck the centre ground, it’s fuck your own loyal members and voters. Utterly insane.

noneoftheabove

Cicero said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Well, quite. and likewise the idea that arch-Conservatives like Rory Stewart are actually "really" Liberal Democrats.

The interesting questions are what should the LDs do in response? And what will they do?

They have the choice of staying a similar party to the last thiry years, it would likely to be one of their more successful periods, perhaps getting back to 50+ seats and being a likely coalition kingmaker.

Or it can become a broad church centre party based around not just remain but for all those who value pragmatism, believe in experts and facts, with a bit less emphasis on liberal than the current party (a lot of liberal values would be norms within the broad church anyway). That party could become the lead party in a govt within the next 3 years.

It is surprising that there is little discussion of which option to choose during the leadership contest, it seems to be the former?

AlastairMeeks

SouthamObserver said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

For the cult of Corbyn read the cult of Johnson. The death of the Conservative and Unionist Party is one of the most extraordinary and sudden political events of this or any other time.

Undergraduate essays will be set in future on yesterday's Julia Hartley-Brewer tweet.

kle4

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.

You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.

Indeed. It's an astounding attitude to take. Even people who voted Tory for decades are not 'real' Tories because of their unwillingness to sign up to something which was not Tory policy , it was BXP policy.

Nigelb

AlastairMeeks said:

You have to admire the civic dedication of those Americans who choose to watch the equivalent of the Eurovision semifinal with Armenia, Slovakia and Moldova.

Opinion formers will have an outsize influence. That's good news for Elizabeth Warren, though I still think she would have benefited more by being seen next to Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden.

Which will happen in the next round of debates.
She got in first, which matters from a viewing numbers perspective, and did fine. I don't think the makeup of the first set of debates matters particularly.

And it's just possible the second debate will be an unholy mess.

SandyRentool

Morris_Dancer said:

As long as Corbyn's Labour leader, or someone of his ilk is, I'll be voting Conservative at the next General Election.

If Labour elected someone sane, and the Conservatives go for Boris...

Still supporting Andrea Jenkyns then.

kle4

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

If your idea of a Tory is someone who was attracted by Cameron and Osborne, then sure. Many of the "Tories" on here come across as affluent Liberal Democrats who got a bit confused back in 2005 by the conman hugging a husky.

I see posts on here calling for the Tories to be liberal. Eh? Why? The Conservatives should be conservative, and the Liberals liberal. In the same way the Labour Party should represent workers (labour).

So someone who liked Cameron or Osborne are not really Tories? This is like all those people who think we've not had a Labour government since the 70s.

IanB2

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.

You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.

Indeed. It's an astounding attitude to take. Even people who voted Tory for decades are not 'real' Tories because of their unwillingness to sign up to something which was not Tory policy , it was BXP policy.

And he'd rather see sensible stalwarts like Richard leave in order to repatriate nutters and extremists from the BXP

IanB2

SandyRentool said:

Morris_Dancer said:

As long as Corbyn's Labour leader, or someone of his ilk is, I'll be voting Conservative at the next General Election.

If Labour elected someone sane, and the Conservatives go for Boris...

Still supporting Andrea Jenkyns then.

She was on TV recently. Words fail me.

noneoftheabove

kle4 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

If your idea of a Tory is someone who was attracted by Cameron and Osborne, then sure. Many of the "Tories" on here come across as affluent Liberal Democrats who got a bit confused back in 2005 by the conman hugging a husky.

I see posts on here calling for the Tories to be liberal. Eh? Why? The Conservatives should be conservative, and the Liberals liberal. In the same way the Labour Party should represent workers (labour).

So someone who liked Cameron or Osborne are not really Tories? This is like all those people who think we've not had a Labour government since the 70s.

It is a huge opportunity for the LDs, if they really want it. I am not convinced they do.

Sean_F

Jonathan said:

Nigel_Foremain said:

AlastairMeeks said:

It's not fair to say that the Conservative party is mutating into something that it has never been before. It's going back to its roots as the stupid party.

Alastair, your comments are normally interesting and well balanced, but that is just dumb. The Conservative Party has had some of the greatest minds and leaders of all time, hence why they have been so successful in the past. The dogmatic insanity that has now gripped a party that was once highly pragmatic is sad to see. It's current stupidity is only equalled or surpassed by the stupidity of the PLP that allowed an intellectual pigmy to be LoTO

The Tory Party has not had some of the greatest minds of all time. Unless you are referring to Jeffrey Archer?

Mark Francois and Guto Bebb.

HYUFD

New Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll taken yesterday has Boris leading Hunt 66% to 30% with 4% undecided.


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.

You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.

Indeed. It's an astounding attitude to take. Even people who voted Tory for decades are not 'real' Tories because of their unwillingness to sign up to something which was not Tory policy , it was BXP policy.

And he'd rather see sensible stalwarts like Richard leave in order to repatriate nutters and extremists from the BXP

The Brexit Party got 32% in the European Parliament elections and the LDs got 20%

TheWhiteRabbit

HYUFD said:

New Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll taken yesterday has Boris leading Hunt 66% to 30% with 4% undecided.


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html

TL:DR Hunt closes the gap a bit, but not enough.

SandyRentool

HYUFD said:

New Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll taken yesterday has Boris leading Hunt 66% to 30% with 4% undecided.


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html

Entryists and loons have got it sown up.

HYUFD

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.

You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.

Over 50% of 2017 Tories voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and just 12% voted LD

Recidivist

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

Casino_Royale said:

FPT - if Richard Nabavi (someone as solidly and loyally Tory as it gets) is now considering Lib Dem then that’s utterly DefCon1 for the party.

Richard Navabi is basically an Orange Book LD anyway.

For every Richard Navabi who leaves for the LDs under Boris, Boris will win back 2 2017 Tories from the Brexit Party

So out of every three people who voted Tory in 2017, you'll hang on (at best) to two of them? Great stuff.

You are the mirror of the Corbynites telling their moderates where to go.

Indeed. It's an astounding attitude to take. Even people who voted Tory for decades are not 'real' Tories because of their unwillingness to sign up to something which was not Tory policy , it was BXP policy.

And he'd rather see sensible stalwarts like Richard leave in order to repatriate nutters and extremists from the BXP

The Brexit Party got 32% in the European Parliament elections and the LDs got 20%

Both the BXs and LDs took votes from the Tories. Which one is most likely to hang on to them in a General Election I wonder.

noneoftheabove

SandyRentool said:

HYUFD said:

New Conservative Home Tory members next Tory leader poll taken yesterday has Boris leading Hunt 66% to 30% with 4% undecided.


https://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2019/06/our-survey-next-tory-leader-johnson-66-per-cent-hunt-30-per-cent.html

Entryists and loons have got it sown up.

Entryism really does work for the nutters. First stage overwhelm the existing members. Second stage be so mad that no sane centrist potential new members would want to be associated with them.

It is hard to see how either party gets its identity back in the next five years, maybe for a generation.