"Britain can borrow for half a century at 1.33pc. Nothing like this has ever been seen before."
World to enter recession in early 2020. UK will need radical new form of public investment - big spend on infrastructure, to dig us out deflation hole. AEP
Is Gove the man for the treasury - the only one who can take on their aversion to infrastructure spending?
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2 and Corbyn still backing Brexit and blocking another referendum.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
I think it’s very sweet you don’t believe that a Johnson-led Conservative party will lead to mass tactical voting against him. Any chance I can persuade you to put some money down on it. I’m happy to go in at whatever level you suggest.
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Wasn’t it a “would you consider voting Tory if...?” question? That isn’t a VI poll, and HY is being misleading presenting it so.
It's absurd of Nick Tyrone to call a no-deal crash-out 'risky' for the Tories.
It's not risky, it's suicidal.
Only if the warnings aren't exaggerated.
Funny how we've had extreme warnings so often from the Europhiles but always "this time its different, this time there really, really is a wolf". I expect we'll adapt and cope either way.
As @HYUFD seems to be slow at this one, I plugged it into electoral calculus with this result:
Con 266 Lab 236 LD 73 Gr 1 PC 3 SNP 53 Brexit nil
Conclusion: Nigel Farage will not be Prime Minister,though hard to see who would be!
Corbo in a Lab-LD-SNP "Mark Rothko" coalition. No Brexit but Sindyref2 and probable Irish unification as consolation prizes.
The LDs would vote against and block Sindyref2 as their Scottish voters are overwhelmingly Unionist and anti Brexit. No Irish unification either if no hard border.
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2 and Corbyn still backing Brexit and blocking another referendum.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
There will be tactical voting for sure. Corbyn only needs to remain slightly less brexit than the Tories to get the remainer votes when a bojo no deal is looming. I would much rather vote LD but in my seat I will be tactically voting Labour in this circumstance to stop a bojo Farage no deal brexit. Better to chuck a weak minority lab government in than that. I will be far from the only one. The better Boris looks like doing, the more we see a repeat of 2017. Its only if it looks like the BXP Tory split will be devestating that people will feel safe to abandon Labour.
I must say I am struggling to see why the Lib Dems are as big as 1.20 for Brecon and Radnorshire. Surely the Labour vote will be nearly fully lent to the Lib Dems?
First, the Labour party surely will take this by-election seriously. There is clear & present danger for them in letting the LibDems snatch their vote. My guess is that Labour may even prefer a Tory hold to LibDem gain.
Second, Labour are only really strong in the south of the constituency. They have chosen a good candidate from Brecon. They should be able to get their highly localised vote out easily enough.
I think Labour's vote will hold up.
There is also still no confirmation of the Remain parties pact -- which I guess is easier to talk about on pb.com than actually implement in the real world.
Thank you for the more local view. I think it's unlikely a pact will make much difference to the overall result, given that PC polled 3% in the GE and most other voters so inclined (latent Greens?) will be well aware that the LD is the only one who can win.
Any idea on the Brexit Party's score? I'd assume around 10-15%, even with BoJo as newly-elected PM.
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Yes. To capitalise, Johnson would need to hold an election prior to Oct 31, in which case he could spike The Brexit Party's guns by promising No Deal (and pointing out that a split vote lets Corbyn/the second referendum lot in, and forces Corbyn to either commit to a second referendum (in which case he loses a bunch of votes in the North and Midlands) or not to (in which case the left wing vote fragments in the South).
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
I think it’s very sweet you don’t believe that a Johnson-led Conservative party will lead to mass tactical voting against him. Any chance I can persuade you to put some money down on it. I’m happy to go in at whatever level you suggest.
There will be some but I am willing to bet a Boris led Tory Party wins a majority if there is a general election before October.
Guardian still losing money like it is going out of fashion though.
Also, don't really get that article. Daily Rant has been reported as one of the most viewed "news" websites in the world for a number of years.
The Guardian is no longer losing money. It hit breakeven earlier this year.
Fair point, they hit break even in the last set of accounts after they got the begging bowl out asking for reader donations and cut lots of staff. Still piss poor given their web traffic.
Yes but the whole point is that the content is free of advertising and free to those that can't afford to pay. Its rather an uplifting business model and they don't have shareholders that need feeding or expat tax avoiding owners.
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2 and Corbyn still backing Brexit and blocking another referendum.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
There will be tactical voting for sure. Corbyn only needs to remain slightly less brexit than the Tories to get the remainer votes when a bojo no deal is looming. I would much rather vote LD but in my seat I will be tactically voting Labour in this circumstance to stop a bojo Farage no deal brexit. Better to chuck a weak minority lab government in than that. I will be far from the only one. The better Boris looks like doing, the more we see a repeat of 2017. Its only if it looks like the BXP Tory split will be devestating that people will feel safe to abandon Labour.
Even Labour internal polling has shown some Remainers will stick with the LDs even if Corbyn goes for EUref2 as they do not trust Corbyn to stop Brexit
Ethnicity or community? I'm ethnically half-Jewish, but I'm not part of a Jewish community in any meaningful way. Not only that but I'm politically very far from many of the people and organisations who are taken to be representatives of the Jewish community, and find myself very alienated from them. The reaction when Corbyn spent passover with Jewdas sent a very clear message to people like me: if you're left wing and critical of Israel, we don't consider you to be a real Jew.
That's why I find it frankly pretty disgusting when conversations here casually conflate criticism of Israel with antisemitism. Blurring that line can only aid genuine antisemitism, something that many regulars here seem to think is a lot less important than having a pop at whoever the Labour hate figure of the day is. And the idea that I have to accept the IHRA's word on what counts as bigotry against my own ethnicity- including opinions on Israel which are a hair's breadth away from my own- seems totally absurd to me.
If you doubt how pernicious this can all be, look at the US, where accusations of antisemitism were used to try to take down Ilhan Omar when she spoke out on the country's dreadful record in South and Central America. Or more recently how it's being used to shut down criticism of ICE's concentration camps
EDIT: By the way if anyone's getting caught up on me only being half-Jewish, a lot of the same could be said of my father. He too isn't really part of a Jewish community, and though his politics are generally quite different to mine also doesn't believe that Corbyn is antisemitic.
It does strike me as strange the same people here will call Labour deeply and systematically anti Semitic and then talk favourably about Farage or even Trump. Trump and Farage may be pro Israel, but pro Jew they are not. Whether it is Soros memes, saying they'd rather have their money counted by men in yamakas, or whatever other weird NWO nonsense they want to sell...
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
I think it’s very sweet you don’t believe that a Johnson-led Conservative party will lead to mass tactical voting against him. Any chance I can persuade you to put some money down on it. I’m happy to go in at whatever level you suggest.
There will be some but I am willing to bet a Boris led Tory Party wins a majority if there is a general election before October.
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
I think it’s very sweet you don’t believe that a Johnson-led Conservative party will lead to mass tactical voting against him. Any chance I can persuade you to put some money down on it. I’m happy to go in at whatever level you suggest.
There will be some but I am willing to bet a Boris led Tory Party wins a majority if there is a general election before October.
Am happy to bet £50 on that
What about an election in October? That seems to be the most likely date, unless there is an immediate VONC.
It was also reported as what his advisers were planning on Twitter as I have already mentioned umpteen times, it was posted here last week if you bother to check previous threads, just ask RCS who commented on it
Guardian still losing money like it is going out of fashion though.
Also, don't really get that article. Daily Rant has been reported as one of the most viewed "news" websites in the world for a number of years.
The Guardian is no longer losing money. It hit breakeven earlier this year.
Fair point, they hit break even in the last set of accounts after they got the begging bowl out asking for reader donations and cut lots of staff. Still piss poor given their web traffic.
Yes but the whole point is that the content is free of advertising and free to those that can't afford to pay. Its rather an uplifting business model and they don't have shareholders that need feeding or expat tax avoiding owners.
Content isn't free from advertising, they have have them just like every other newspapers / website. As well as also have tax avoiding "owners".
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
That’s 36% before he’s disappointed anyone and before there’s any tactical voting. It’s a very low maximum, but if you want to see it as great news who am I to stop you?
Ha Ha, tactical voting when Labour ripping itself apart over EUref2.
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
I think it’s very sweet you don’t believe that a Johnson-led Conservative party will lead to mass tactical voting against him. Any chance I can persuade you to put some money down on it. I’m happy to go in at whatever level you suggest.
There will be some but I am willing to bet a Boris led Tory Party wins a majority if there is a general election before October.
Am happy to bet £50 on that
An overall majority? Yep, I’ll take that.
Agreed, straight bet then you pay me £50 if Boris wins a majority in a pre October general election and I pay you £50 if he does not.
It's absurd of Nick Tyrone to call a no-deal crash-out 'risky' for the Tories.
It's not risky, it's suicidal.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
It's absurd of Nick Tyrone to call a no-deal crash-out 'risky' for the Tories.
It's not risky, it's suicidal.
Only if the warnings aren't exaggerated.
Funny how we've had extreme warnings so often from the Europhiles but always "this time its different, this time there really, really is a wolf". I expect we'll adapt and cope either way.
Adapt and cope is not a reasuring message. It sounds like learning to live with a war injury.
It's absurd of Nick Tyrone to call a no-deal crash-out 'risky' for the Tories.
It's not risky, it's suicidal.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
Thank you for the response. In essence, your concern is one of political management, then, yes? I can see how that would be a concern - it's certainly a risk.
It's absurd of Nick Tyrone to call a no-deal crash-out 'risky' for the Tories.
It's not risky, it's suicidal.
I'm probably going to regret asking this, but what makes you so convinced that No Deal ineluctably leads to economic apocalypse?
Not economic apocalypse (except in Northern Ireland), but the media full every day for a long period of farmers going bust, fishing fleets being mothballed, car manufacturers laying off staff or withdrawing from the UK altogether, supplies being held up at ports, produce rotting, the pound collapsing, lorries held up on the approach to Dover, British ex-pats being left without medical cover, etc etc etc.
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.
That's on the optimistic view that the media won't be full of stories about no fresh food in the shops and speculation about how long the stockpiles of tinned food will hold out, interspersed with interviews with the family members of people who died because they couldn't get their medication.
IPSOS-MORI were the most accurate Euros pollster apparently. Tories + BXP on under 40% should terrify the Johnson cult. The Corbyn cult is past caring about Labour polling, of course. The potential for tactical voting at the next GE is immense. It makes it impossible to Baxter with a straight face.
Tories up to 36% under Boris with Ipsos Mori today is actually great news for Boris fans and would deliver a comfortable overall Tory majority
And an affront to democracy, in that anyone getting a majority on 36% of the vote would be. Yes, including Tony Blair.
Comments
Incidentally, most of the members of Groups within 'my' U3a to which I belong seem anti-Brexit.
Please just tell me which party I have to vote for. The SNP don't normally stand in England, do they?
36% is Cameron 2015 levels and an even bigger Tory majority than Cameron got then as Remainers continue to drift from Labour to the LDs splitting the centre left vote
But the polling level is not what's interesting, it's the direction of travel.
It's not risky, it's suicidal.
In any case Boris wants a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop by referendum
Funny how we've had extreme warnings so often from the Europhiles but always "this time its different, this time there really, really is a wolf". I expect we'll adapt and cope either way.
So no Brexit only
Scotland is unusual, because the SNP are able to win nearly all seats in a GE on ~40-50% of the vote.
Aka FPTP gone mad. To their credit, the SNP support PR.
The Tories are irredeemably doomed whatever happens.
Any idea on the Brexit Party's score? I'd assume around 10-15%, even with BoJo as newly-elected PM.
In theory.
Am happy to bet £50 on that
https://www.irishnews.com/news/brexit/2019/06/15/news/michael-portillo-makes-prediction-over-boris-johnson-s-brexit-backstop-plan-1642500/
[with apologies for intervening in your negotiation, @SouthamObserver & @HYUFD
Politicians campaign with their wives quite often. How often did we see Samantha Cameron for set pieces?
NEW THREAD
Bet void if no general election before October
What this will all mean in macro-economic terms is very hard indeed to say. I don't really think traditional economic models are any use at all here - no advanced Western economy has ever imposed wide-ranging economic sanctions on itself before - but if I had to hazard a guess I'd say the pound will head down to the range $1 to $1.10 and the overall hit to UK GDP will be comparable to the 2008/9 crisis, and the unemployment effect much worse than 2008/9.