politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The final step. Why the leader of the Conservative party does

Charles said:

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

algarkirk said:

Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.

One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays

Seems unlikely but who knows

Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August

Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance

Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.

Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote

Campaigning in August would be a nonsense

I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.

There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.

1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.

2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.

If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.

We know you think 2 is a cute idea but it won’t happen. It would destroy the party. May will recommend the leader of the largest party in the Commons. It would be extraordinary if she were to do anything else

These are extraordinary totally unprecedented times. If she does recommend the leader of the largest party i.e. Boris, knowing that he faces a successful VONC then she is neglecting her duty. She won't do that.

Barnesian said:

Stereotomy said:

Barnesian said:

El_Sid said:

Barnesian said:

There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.

1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.

The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.

That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says

"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "

Para 2.9 of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

Thanks for the clarification. Very useful.

If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,

She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.

EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".

If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."

Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.

Rule 1: Tory Remainers have no stones.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

nico67 said:

blueblue said:

nico67 said:

Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .

He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .

Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .

Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..

Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...

I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .

Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .

Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.

If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .

They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .

Hunt is not a threat to Labour, as that Sky poll shows Boris is more popular than Hunt in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North where most of the marginal seats are, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.


In Leaverville Boris is well ahead of Hunt

Maybe try not to be too complacent

Just pointing out the facts, the only voters Hunt leads Boris with on that poll are Londoners, over 55s and narrowly Scots and Hunt almost ties Boris with women.

Boris leads Hunt with Northerners, those in the Midlands and Wales, the middle aged and the young and Boris trounces Hunt with men and Southerners.

All Hunt needs to do is go on TV and say how people will feel cheated about Boris not taking part in a debate.

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Barnesian said:

El_Sid said:

Barnesian said:

There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.

1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.

The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.

That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says

"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "

Para 2.9 of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

Thanks for the clarification. Very useful.

If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,

She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.

EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".

Nah - aside from it being kinda nuts, it's easily countered by Labour saying "We reject any attempt by the Tories to negate their own democratic processes, so we will abstain on any VoNC against the elected leader of the Tories until their predecessor has handed over the keys to No 10, and vote in favour of any other VoNC".

That stuffs May's VoNC unless you eg get a majority of Tories voting for no confidence in their newly-elected leader - perhaps possible if it was Hunt, but even the Tories are surely not _that_ mad?

Strange times.

Was that it.

I cannot see we learnt anything with his BBC interview

Barnesian said:

viewcode said:

Barnesian said:

Stereotomy said:

Barnesian said:

El_Sid said:

Barnesian said:

There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.

1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.

The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.

That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says

"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "

Para 2.9 of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf

Thanks for the clarification. Very useful.

If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,

She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.

EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".

If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."

Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.

Rule 1: Tory Remainers have no stones.

Grieve and Letwin certainly had.

Rule 1.1 (as amended). Not enough Tory Remainers have enough stones to make a difference.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Was that it.

I cannot see we learnt anything with his BBC interview

No. But not for want of trying. I thought Laura did very well there and his body language was defensive.

PClipp said:

HYUFD said:

Just pointing out the facts, the only voters Hunt leads Boris with on that poll are Londoners, over 55s and narrowly Scots and Hunt almost ties Boris with women.
Boris leads Hunt with Northerners, those in the Midlands and Wales, the middle aged and the young and Boris trounces Hunt with men and Southerners.

The problem for you, Mr HY, is that most Conservative voters are over 55. Hunt would make the better leader for you.

The difficulty is that the country is in the middle of a crisis of the Conservatives`own making. Do we want somebody who might be able to come up with a solution, or somebody who is just a joker?

No he wouldn't as voters over 55 will vote Tory anyway regardless of whether Boris or Hunt is leader even if they slightly prefer Hunt.

The voters in the key marginal seats are mainly in the Midlands and Wales and the North and South and those regions all back Boris over Hunt and Boris also leads Hunt with the middle aged and if the Tories do not win the middle aged they will lose the election.

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

Your lot are putting Boris in no 10, it is for you to get a grip.

Jonathan said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

Your lot are putting Boris in no 10, it is for you to get a grip.

You want to put Corbyn in - really no contest in the shit stakes.

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Life will go on you know.

Roger said:

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

Yep. The gal did well. But I fear he could announce that Swift's A Modest Proposal is now government policy and he would still win.

Floater said:

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Life will go on you know.

It will, but now people will leap on your line as a 'so that is all we can look forward to now?' gotcha.

Charles said:

viewcode said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Barnesian said:

Foxy said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.

Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote

Campaigning in August would be a nonsense

I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.

There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.

1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.

2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.

If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.

Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so

She stops being PM when she dies, resigns the position of PM, or HMQ fires her. Not before. You could elect ten million leaders of the Conservative Party and that would still be the case.

And I thought the Greens had a radical approach with their shared leadership!

I think it has to be some atomic particle - a leaderon? - that moves between each candidate so that each can be the leader for a picosecond. Or you can have Schrödinger's Leader: you lock each candidate in a box and only collapse the waveform when you open it.

Jonathan said:

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

It’s going to get worse before it gets better.

I think you've just pipped Hirohito for understatement.......

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Was that it.

I cannot see we learnt anything with his BBC interview

From what i saw of the interview he does not inspire confidence!

The line that stuck out to me was the part where he said "people should work out whats going on my head" or words to that effect! WTF! I have never heard a politician talk about the workings of their brain. No wonder he avoids any debates.

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

Obviously I can't be sure that you'd be in this category, but I know beyond any shadow of a doubt that if anyone had suggested a couple of years ago that the Conservative party, Westminster and the UK was going to end up in this current parlous state, PB Tories* would have instantly called them hopeless doom mongers who should *get a grip*.

Edit: *many PB Tories

rottenborough said:

Roger said:

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

Yep. The gal did well. But I fear he could announce that Swift's A Modest Proposal is now government policy and he would still win.

It's Trump all over again. We're busy congratulating ourselves over our identification of his many manifest flaws, but his supporters already know and don't care. And there are enough of them to make him leader and maybe enough to make him PM and, as @HYUFD points out, maybe enough for a majority, even a large one.

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1143266403967000576

Has anyone told Pritti, Francios, Bone, IDS, Mogg etc etc about this classic US primary nominee swerve to the centre ground?

It was pretty obvious from his Birmingham speech. His plan, such as it is, is to buy off the right with any sort of Brexit and then drop them and pitch to the centre. Just a shame he hasn’t coloured any of it in.

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Just as well I like turnips.

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

No - it is the Tories who need to get a grip. Seriously. You (Tories) are behaving ridiculously. Utterly ridiculously. The more we see of those who are or who have been in Cabinet the more we see people who are ignorant, incompetent and woefully lacking in any talent. We see arrogance and a total lack of concern for those likely to be impacted by a policy (and that is to be polite) which you cannot explain, for which you have no plan and in respect of which your spokesmen are talking verifiable nonsense virtually every single time you open your mouths.

You Tories are contemptible in the way you are behaving. You are exhausted, out of ideas, confused, directionless and divided. You are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people who do worry about the future, about jobs, about their children and their future, about homes and savings. You are destroying what remains of your USP and in your complacency and arrogance think that Corbyn is so much worse that voters will have no option but to choose you. You are so mistaken. You are desperate to escape the trap you've fallen into and are thrashing around. It is pitiful and concerning watching this happen in a country which used to be a by-word for pragmatism and common-sense.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

I'm tired, yes. But above all I'm furious at the way your wretched party is wilfully gambling with my children's futures. You will not be easily - if ever - forgiven. Not by me anyway.

viewcode said:

rottenborough said:

Roger said:

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

Yep. The gal did well. But I fear he could announce that Swift's A Modest Proposal is now government policy and he would still win.

It's Trump all over again. We're busy congratulating ourselves over our identification of his many manifest flaws, but his supporters already know and don't care. And there are enough of them to make him leader and maybe enough to make him PM and, as @HYUFD points out, maybe enough for a majority, even a large one.

But, yes, you are correct.

He will literally have to self-combust to lose this now. But it will be closer than many think.

Floater said:

Cyclefree said:

I give up. The Tories are going to have a 4-week campaign and then some of their MPs are going to say that the chosen leader is an arse in whom they don't have any confidence. And then we'll have yet another GE and waste more time and probably end up with another messy hung Parliament and still won't be any closer to having done any of the practical stuff needed actually to leave the EU on any sort of basis.

And then, presumably, panic and ask for an extension or maybe not but leave without any relevant legislation into some sort of legal no-man's land two months before Xmas when all the warehouses will be full of Chinese tat to cheer us all up at the likelihood that the only veg available at reasonable prices will be turnips while the days get short and dark and, oh, probably, we'll have a hard winter as well.

And if we do get an extension the Tories will burst into flames and Farage will be PM with Anne Widdecombe as Minister for Squashing Diversity and Annunziata handing out food parcels to the poor like a heroine in a Victorian novel. While Mr Corbyn thinks about doing something possibly, maybe, once a committee has been held.

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Life will go on you know.

Perhaps not Tory life. The hardline Brexiteers and chancers are destroying the Tory party - which is a pity. The country needs a decent opposition.

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

No - it is the Tories who need to get a grip. Seriously. You (Tories) are behaving ridiculously. Utterly ridiculously. The more we see of those who are or who have been in Cabinet the more we see people who are ignorant, incompetent and woefully lacking in any talent. We see arrogance and a total lack of concern for those likely to be impacted by a policy (and that is to be polite) which you cannot explain, for which you have no plan and in respect of which your spokesmen are talking verifiable nonsense virtually every single time you open your mouths.

You Tories are contemptible in the way you are behaving. You are exhausted, out of ideas, confused, directionless and divided. You are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people who do worry about the future, about jobs, about their children and their future, about homes and savings. You are destroying what remains of your USP and in your complacency and arrogance think that Corbyn is so much worse that voters will have no option but to choose you. You are so mistaken. You are desperate to escape the trap you've fallen into and are thrashing around. It is pitiful and concerning watching this happen in a country which used to be a by-word for pragmatism and common-sense.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

I'm tired, yes. But above all I'm furious at the way your wretched party is wilfully gambling with my children's futures. You will not be easily - if ever - forgiven. Not by me anyway.

I think you're being too generous.

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1143266403967000576

Has anyone told Pritti, Francios, Bone, IDS, Mogg etc etc about this classic US primary nominee swerve to the centre ground?

It was pretty obvious from his Birmingham speech. His plan, such as it is, is to buy off the right with any sort of Brexit and then drop them and pitch to the centre. Just a shame he hasn’t coloured any of it in.

Does he think the ERG wont destroy him as they have done May?

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1143269266520772610

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1143269266520772610

Heisenberg's Withdrawal Agreement.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

I have no love for Boris but your intolerance does you no favours

To put it into context I would prefer Len McClusky as PM rather than Johnson and I thought there was no one I liked less than McClusky

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

I have no love for Boris but your intolerance does you no favours

To put it into context I would prefer Len McClusky as PM rather than Johnson and I thought there was no one I liked less than McClusky

Perhaps Boris will invite Big Len round to No 10 to help him deliver Brexit?

Parliament should all get together right now and pass a law changing the way PMs get chosen so Parliament changes the PM by voting for a new one, instead of this ridiculous roundabout thing where unnamed advisors take soundings and communicate to The Queen the general vibe of what parliament would might do if it had a chance to vote against them.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1143266403967000576

Has anyone told Pritti, Francios, Bone, IDS, Mogg etc etc about this classic US primary nominee swerve to the centre ground?

It was pretty obvious from his Birmingham speech. His plan, such as it is, is to buy off the right with any sort of Brexit and then drop them and pitch to the centre. Just a shame he hasn’t coloured any of it in.

Does he think the ERG wont destroy him as they have done May?

Indeed. May already offered them any sort of Brexit and they (or rather the spartan rump of the ERG along with the Grievers) said up yours. They don't want any sort of Brexit - the ones who were willing to take any sort of Brexit in order to ensure it happened at all already caved in during MV3, including Boris, revealing what crap he had been talking for months beforehand. The rest want more than that. However unreasonable that may or may not be, they won't cave in with any old Brexit.

Yep. But at least they can say they bore witness to the end of the Conservative Party.

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1143266403967000576

Has anyone told Pritti, Francios, Bone, IDS, Mogg etc etc about this classic US primary nominee swerve to the centre ground?

It was pretty obvious from his Birmingham speech. His plan, such as it is, is to buy off the right with any sort of Brexit and then drop them and pitch to the centre. Just a shame he hasn’t coloured any of it in.

Does he think the ERG wont destroy him as they have done May?

Indeed. May already offered them any sort of Brexit and they (or rather the spartan rump of the ERG along with the Grievers) said up yours. They don't want any sort of Brexit - the ones who were willing to take any sort of Brexit in order to ensure it happened at all already caved in during MV3, including Boris, revealing what crap he had been talking for months beforehand. The rest want more than that. However unreasonable that may or may not be, they won't cave in with any old Brexit.

Which is why Boris needs a majority to deliver a Deal Brexit, the WA will never get through otherwise because of the DUP and 10-20 Tory ERG hardliners who are opposed to the WA in principle even without the backstop or the temporary Customs Union removed and about 6 Tory diehard Remainer hardliners who are now basically LDs in all but name

Roger said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Roger said:

Laura K just made him seem like a dribbling blobfish and she wasn't even trying. If any Tory member votes for him they're as thick as pig shit.

(Except for HYUFD who is in love)

I have no love for Boris but your intolerance does you no favours

To put it into context I would prefer Len McClusky as PM rather than Johnson and I thought there was no one I liked less than McClusky

My only concern is that there are many conservative members that I totally oppose, but there are many of us who do not like being collectively referred to as you did

I hope you accept some of us are just as despairing at the hard brexiteers in our party as you are

nico67 said:

So what Johnson said about Muslim women and flag waving picanninies was really what’s going on in his head . Oh dear !

Do we add the Libya comments on clearing up the corpses to make a beach resort , gay marriage as bestiality and the rest aswell !

I can see why his handlers or should they be called babysitters want to keep him away from the cameras and any debate .

The more he talks the worse it gets !

One of his key backers told me a few months ago that dealing with Boris is like “wrangling a toddler”

rottenborough said:

kle4 said:

rottenborough said:

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/JohnRentoul/status/1143266403967000576

Has anyone told Pritti, Francios, Bone, IDS, Mogg etc etc about this classic US primary nominee swerve to the centre ground?

It was pretty obvious from his Birmingham speech. His plan, such as it is, is to buy off the right with any sort of Brexit and then drop them and pitch to the centre. Just a shame he hasn’t coloured any of it in.

Does he think the ERG wont destroy him as they have done May?

Indeed. May already offered them any sort of Brexit and they (or rather the spartan rump of the ERG along with the Grievers) said up yours. They don't want any sort of Brexit - the ones who were willing to take any sort of Brexit in order to ensure it happened at all already caved in during MV3, including Boris, revealing what crap he had been talking for months beforehand. The rest want more than that. However unreasonable that may or may not be, they won't cave in with any old Brexit.

Yep. But at least they can say they bore witness to the end of the Conservative Party.

We already know that is a price they are willing to pay for Brexit. Apparently they are also prepared to block (the wrong) Brexit to see the end of the Conservative party. And these are the ones who think others are in the wrong party!

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

No - it is the Tories who need to get a grip. Seriously. You (Tories) are behaving ridiculously. Utterly ridiculously. The more we see of those who are or who have been in Cabinet the more we see people who are ignorant, incompetent and woefully lacking in any talent. We see arrogance and a total lack of concern for those likely to be impacted by a policy (and that is to be polite) which you cannot explain, for which you have no plan and in respect of which your spokesmen are talking verifiable nonsense virtually every single time you open your mouths.

You Tories are contemptible in the way you are behaving. You are exhausted, out of ideas, confused, directionless and divided. You are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people who do worry about the future, about jobs, about their children and their future, about homes and savings. You are destroying what remains of your USP and in your complacency and arrogance think that Corbyn is so much worse that voters will have no option but to choose you. You are so mistaken. You are desperate to escape the trap you've fallen into and are thrashing around. It is pitiful and concerning watching this happen in a country which used to be a by-word for pragmatism and common-sense.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

I'm tired, yes. But above all I'm furious at the way your wretched party is wilfully gambling with my children's futures. You will not be easily - if ever - forgiven. Not by me anyway.

You know I’m not a Tory, right? Haven’t been a member since IDS was elected

And they say triangulation is dead...

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1143270115682725889

rottenborough said:

And they say triangulation is dead...

https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1143270115682725889

Can a politician be prosecuted for gross malfeasance in a public office?

Gardenwalker said:

rottenborough said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

No - it is the Tories who need to get a grip. Seriously. You (Tories) are behaving ridiculously. Utterly ridiculously. The more we see of those who are or who have been in Cabinet the more we see people who are ignorant, incompetent and woefully lacking in any talent. We see arrogance and a total lack of concern for those likely to be impacted by a policy (and that is to be polite) which you cannot explain, for which you have no plan and in respect of which your spokesmen are talking verifiable nonsense virtually every single time you open your mouths.

You Tories are contemptible in the way you are behaving. You are exhausted, out of ideas, confused, directionless and divided. You are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people who do worry about the future, about jobs, about their children and their future, about homes and savings. You are destroying what remains of your USP and in your complacency and arrogance think that Corbyn is so much worse that voters will have no option but to choose you. You are so mistaken. You are desperate to escape the trap you've fallen into and are thrashing around. It is pitiful and concerning watching this happen in a country which used to be a by-word for pragmatism and common-sense.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

I'm tired, yes. But above all I'm furious at the way your wretched party is wilfully gambling with my children's futures. You will not be easily - if ever - forgiven. Not by me anyway.

Post of the decade.

And it all comes back to the shrunken state of the party. A mere 160k members. When there were two million in 1950s.

It is hollow.

And that is a terrible reflection on wider society.

Bowling alone...

But as the Mount article argues, compare and contrast with National Trust membership, or Green or Labour Party membership.

The Tory Party is hollowed out.
It is no longer fit for purpose.

For those of us of broadly centre right instincts, that is a pity.

If Boris wins Tory membership will go up guaranteed, as Labour membership went up under Corbyn.


Indeed some new Tory members joined up precisely to vote for Boris

Anyone else's PB acting funny? Mine flashes each time I type a letter into the comment box Worried my computer is about to die....

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

rottenborough said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

No - it is the Tories who need to get a grip. Seriously. You (Tories) are behaving ridiculously. Utterly ridiculously. The more we see of those who are or who have been in Cabinet the more we see people who are ignorant, incompetent and woefully lacking in any talent. We see arrogance and a total lack of concern for those likely to be impacted by a policy (and that is to be polite) which you cannot explain, for which you have no plan and in respect of which your spokesmen are talking verifiable nonsense virtually every single time you open your mouths.

You Tories are contemptible in the way you are behaving. You are exhausted, out of ideas, confused, directionless and divided. You are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people who do worry about the future, about jobs, about their children and their future, about homes and savings. You are destroying what remains of your USP and in your complacency and arrogance think that Corbyn is so much worse that voters will have no option but to choose you. You are so mistaken. You are desperate to escape the trap you've fallen into and are thrashing around. It is pitiful and concerning watching this happen in a country which used to be a by-word for pragmatism and common-sense.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

I'm tired, yes. But above all I'm furious at the way your wretched party is wilfully gambling with my children's futures. You will not be easily - if ever - forgiven. Not by me anyway.

Post of the decade.

And it all comes back to the shrunken state of the party. A mere 160k members. When there were two million in 1950s.

It is hollow.

And that is a terrible reflection on wider society.

Bowling alone...

But as the Mount article argues, compare and contrast with National Trust membership, or Green or Labour Party membership.

The Tory Party is hollowed out.
It is no longer fit for purpose.

For those of us of broadly centre right instincts, that is a pity.

If Boris wins Tory membership will go up guaranteed, as Labour membership went up under Corbyn

All Boris kids to join?

RobD said:

Anyone else's PB acting funny? Mine flashes each time I type a letter into the comment box Worried my computer is about to die....

I'm still getting posts saying that Boris as PM is going to work out fine, so yeah...

HYUFD said:

Gardenwalker said:

rottenborough said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Cyclefree said:

Charles said:

Cyclefree said:

This is all going to go so terribly well, isn't it?

Scene opens with exhausted peasants pushing a cart through the mud

[clang]. Bring out your dead! Bring out your dead! [clang]

For goodness sake @Cyclefree, get a grip!

No - it is the Tories who need to get a grip. Seriously. You (Tories) are behaving ridiculously. Utterly ridiculously. The more we see of those who are or who have been in Cabinet the more we see people who are ignorant, incompetent and woefully lacking in any talent. We see arrogance and a total lack of concern for those likely to be impacted by a policy (and that is to be polite) which you cannot explain, for which you have no plan and in respect of which your spokesmen are talking verifiable nonsense virtually every single time you open your mouths.

You Tories are contemptible in the way you are behaving. You are exhausted, out of ideas, confused, directionless and divided. You are out of touch with the concerns of ordinary people who do worry about the future, about jobs, about their children and their future, about homes and savings. You are destroying what remains of your USP and in your complacency and arrogance think that Corbyn is so much worse that voters will have no option but to choose you. You are so mistaken. You are desperate to escape the trap you've fallen into and are thrashing around. It is pitiful and concerning watching this happen in a country which used to be a by-word for pragmatism and common-sense.

"You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!"

I'm tired, yes. But above all I'm furious at the way your wretched party is wilfully gambling with my children's futures. You will not be easily - if ever - forgiven. Not by me anyway.

Post of the decade.

And it all comes back to the shrunken state of the party. A mere 160k members. When there were two million in 1950s.

It is hollow.

And that is a terrible reflection on wider society.

Bowling alone...

But as the Mount article argues, compare and contrast with National Trust membership, or Green or Labour Party membership.

The Tory Party is hollowed out.
It is no longer fit for purpose.

For those of us of broadly centre right instincts, that is a pity.

If Boris wins Tory membership will go up guaranteed, as Labour membership went up under Corbyn.

And that was for the better?

RobD said:

Anyone else's PB acting funny? Mine flashes each time I type a letter into the comment box Worried my computer is about to die....

I have that.

Are you using Chrome?

I think it is a Chrome recent update issue (I am now viewing on Firefox).

Theuniondivvie said:

I'm still getting posts saying that Boris as PM is going to work out fine, so yeah...

According the Gordon Brown "the United Kingdom is in mortal danger".

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7176697/Former-Prime-Minister-GORDON-BROWN-fears-antagonistic-nationalism-mean-end-United-Kingdom.html