Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated. Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter. Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper. Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes People go away at Easter So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
I agree. The point a vonc arrives must be when a no deal becomes seriously likely, probably mid to late september
It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.
(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).
Presumably a reciprocal stand down in a PC Westminster target seat.
Presumably, but that may not be quite so easy to arrange at short notice.
Adam Price clearly says he wants something in return.
(I am not entirely sure that the Plaid Cymru and LibDems voters are quite so willing to be parcelled up as gifts by their leaders).
Oh, I agree that there is always some shrinkage when people cannot vote for their preferred party. Voters cannot be shifted about without consequence.
Not all members can be parcelled either. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate, due to a pact, I'd not vote. I didn't join the Lib Dems to help other parties with which I have very little common ground. I'm happy to work with others after an election but I standing aside for another party takes choice away from voters.
Absolutely.
I regularly vote Plaid Cymru, and nothing would make me vote for Jane Dodds in B&R.
What is wrong with Jane Dodds? The political gene pool in Wales is currently pretty shallow and she strikes me as being no more useless than the rest of them.
She is a lib dem apparently the most vile people to occupy the earth.
He is more likely to get a working majority on a sensible softish leave platform than Johnson's unicorn exit proposals, unless of course Bannon can mediate an electoral pact between Boris snd Nigey
Hmm. The rhetoric doesn’t match that plus his arithmetic mirrors May’s doesn’t it?
Probably, but not as certainly - he also cannot get Brexit done, but may be able to kick the can a little bit further (but the EU may not play ball there).
What do the Conservative party stand for? What values underpin their policies? To what extent does brexit support those values? I’m actually interested because many years ago I believed in equality of opportunity, free enterprise and separation of the courts from the legislature. I see very little of any of that these days
Brexit (specifically no deal Brexit). Belief in Brexit Entirely, because they have nothing but Brexit, given they would even see the UK destroyed to achieve it.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.
My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
I have to say I am coming around to this view, even though I have been banging on about Boris not becoming PM for several weeks now.
Let no man stand between an MP and his August holiday!
By now bookings will have been made. Spouse and kids excited etc etc.
And no cancellation insurance. Could cost mps thousands of pounds each
It may depend on whether his enemies - he is not short of them - want to prevent him being PM at all or to cut it short once he is installed. But at all events time is not on his enemies' side. The best way to stop him being PM at all is for lots of Tories well in advance - soon - to say they cannot support him. This gives TM both time and constitutional reason to take alternative action. If his enemies don't want to be labelled stooges of the Marxists they need a n alternative idea - either TM to stay or a GNU. I prefer the second.
Won’t happen the Tory party would implode , the activist base would defect to bxp. Half the tory MPs would defect bxp. It would be seen as a last ditch attempt of parliament to block brexit . The voters would be very unforgiving , Nigel Farage would become PM
Could well be of course. The harder thing is to find the route by which the Tory party does not implode
Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.
My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated. Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter. Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper. Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes People go away at Easter So there really is apart from MPs themselves not that many who are rigidly tied into August. It’s not as if it’s frequently too hot to campaign, the Spanish had a GE a week before Christmas so time to ditch this fallacy that August is a no no.
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.
(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).
Presumably a reciprocal stand down in a PC Westminster target seat.
Difficult because the only plausible gain for Plaid Cymru right now is Ynys Mon, and the Lib Dems don't have much of a presence to offer up there. After that, PC's only route to advancement at Westminster is an SLab-style collapse in the Valleys.
Still, don't knock it. The Lib Dem/Green alliance in parts of Oxfordshire has proved extraordinarily successful - two districts, one MP, even a handful of councillors on the none-more-Tory Cherwell DC.
He is more likely to get a working majority on a sensible softish leave platform than Johnson's unicorn exit proposals, unless of course Bannon can mediate an electoral pact between Boris snd Nigey
Hmm. The rhetoric doesn’t match that plus his arithmetic mirrors May’s doesn’t it?
Jezza's rhetoric is a little worrying, however surely his pragmatism could win the day.
He is more likely to get a working majority on a sensible softish leave platform than Johnson's unicorn exit proposals, unless of course Bannon can mediate an electoral pact between Boris snd Nigey
Hmm. The rhetoric doesn’t match that plus his arithmetic mirrors May’s doesn’t it?
Jezza's rhetoric is a little worrying, however surely his pragmatism could win the day.
The pragmatism of either man is secondary to whether they could carry the votes on whatever pragmatic option they go for.
Also, this Jezza talk is getting confusing. Can we refer to one as Jezza the Hunt and the other as the Jezziah to distinguish?
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.
(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).
Presumably a reciprocal stand down in a PC Westminster target seat.
Presumably, but that may not be quite so easy to arrange at short notice.
Adam Price clearly says he wants something in return.
(I am not entirely sure that the Plaid Cymru and LibDems voters are quite so willing to be parcelled up as gifts by their leaders).
Oh, I agree that there is always some shrinkage when people cannot vote for their preferred party. Voters cannot be shifted about without consequence.
Not all members can be parcelled either. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate, due to a pact, I'd not vote. I didn't join the Lib Dems to help other parties with which I have very little common ground. I'm happy to work with others after an election but I standing aside for another party takes choice away from voters.
Absolutely.
I regularly vote Plaid Cymru, and nothing would make me vote for Jane Dodds in B&R.
What is wrong with Jane Dodds? The political gene pool in Wales is currently pretty shallow and she strikes me as being no more useless than the rest of them.
She is a lib dem apparently the most vile people to occupy the earth.
Having just seen Cleggy whoring for Facebook- fair point!
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
No. You misunderstand. She ceases to be Leader of the Tory Party. She remains as PM until her successor, who commands the confidence of the House, is appointed by the Queen.
EDIT As PM she retains the power to introduce business motions. In particular she retains the power to choose who she recommends to the Queen to be next PM.
Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election and lose.
My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated. Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter. Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper. Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes People go away at Easter So there really is apart from MPs thitch this fallacy that August is a no no.
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
Not necessarily, even if not ideal the Germans do it all the time as their general elections are always in September.
The Australians had a general election in August in 2010
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
TM ceases to be leader at that point. The winner then becomes PM after he meets with the Queen, so not similtaneous.
We need Theresa back. Against these other two she looks gargantuan. It's impossible to visualise either being PM. I know Tories are known as the 'stupid' party and the 'nasty 'party but they surely see this would make them the ex party.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has" the confidence of the House, but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
Not true.
David Cameron remained Prime Minister for two days after Theresa May succeeded him as Tory leader.
Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; he may lose to Hunt; he may by the time he is leader have so many Tories indicating they would not support him that TM could not constitutionally request HM the Queen to ask him to form a government; he may lose support of DUP; he may only survive days before losing a VONC; he may call a quick election My best guess is that if he becomes PM his only recourse is to call a Brexit election asap and take his chance before a VONC is called on him. Thus he keeps such initiative as is possible - which is not much.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated. Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter. Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper. Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes People go away at Easter So there really is apart from MPs thitch this fallacy that August is a no no.
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
Not necessarily, even if not ideal the Germans do it all the time as their general elections are always in September.
The Australians had a general election in August in 2010
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
No. You misunderstand. She ceases to be Leader of the Tory Party. She remains as PM until her successor, who commands the confidence of the House, is appointed by the Queen.
The 1922 committee are in charge of the election and any subsquent action will need their approval
However, I do not see it happening in July before Boris/Hunt has had meetings with the EU
We need Theresa back. Against these other two she looks gargantuan. It's impossible to visualise either being PM. I know Tories are known as the 'stupid' party and the 'nasty 'party but they surely see this would make them the ex party.
It is surely time for them to consolidate into the stupid, nasty party.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
Not true.
David Cameron remained Prime Minister for two days after Theresa May succeeded him as Tory leader.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
It is interesting that Boris, the Great Tory Hope for any future election campaign, is stuttering, stumbling, and self-destructing only half a week into a leadership campaign.
What would a seven week election campaign against opponents who really want to defeat him and his entire Party look like?
(we cut to Labour Headquarters, where everyone is muttering like a mantra, "Pick Boris, pick Boris, pick Boris...")
Excellent analysis as always. Boris faces these obstacles in order: he may bottle out before the contest with Hunt is complete; henot much.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
As for Boris' private life, I agree that everyone is entitled not to answer questions about these things. However it is not consequence free. People are still entitled to draw their own conclusions from the evidence about his character, and to draw conclusions from his refusal to answer questions.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
The debate about August GE being unacceptable as it’s the holiday season is outdated. Many pensioners go to warmer climes for the winter. Most people without children will go June July September October because it’s cheaper. Half term is holiday season as can be seen by price hikes People go away at Easter So there really is apart from MPs thitch this fallacy that August is a no no.
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
Not necessarily, even if not ideal the Germans do it all the time as their general elections are always in September.
The Australians had a general election in August in 2010
Someone tell HY about the Southern Hemisphere.
Australia also held an election in December in 1984
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
No. You misunderstand. She ceases to be Leader of the Tory Party. She remains as PM until her successor, who commands the confidence of the House, is appointed by the Queen.
The 1922 committee are in charge of the election and any subsquent action will need their approval
However, I do not see it happening in July before Boris/Hunt has had meetings with the EU
The 1922 Committee are in charge of the election of the Party Leader. They are not involved in any way in the appointment of the PM. It is a crucial distinction.
There's a couple of issues with an election before B-Day2(or is it 3?). 1) they'd not want to be campaigning during August and with the Tory leadership election finishing late july it'd not happen before then 2) if the election was to be announced on the first week after the summer recess (around the 4th September) with the dissolution of parliament on the 12th and election day on the 17th which would give 2 weeks before B-Day2 to form a government. any later and it gets tight. 3) an election in september requires the dissolution of parliament in august while it is in recess 4) I can't see the Tory party wanting to be campaigning during conference season
I can see a late election (after B-Day2) following another delay (until march 2020) but not before
Oh, I agree that there is always some shrinkage when people cannot vote for their preferred party. Voters cannot be shifted about without consequence.
Plaid Cymru has inherited most of the old Welsh Chapel vote that was the bedrock of the old Welsh Liberals (people like Emlyn Hooson). The present Welsh LibDem party membership is very Anglo-centric.
So, the voter base of the two parties are very different. I think the efficiency of any vote transfer will be low (under 20 per cent).
I don't see much in it for either party, tbh.
Have to say I find it bizarre. Plaid are the self styled "Party of Wales" and there's a byelection in Wales and they would't stand ? It would sound like they don't think Brecon & Radnorshire is sufficiently Welsh, which would be an odd stance for a party whose raison d'etre is Welsh independence. They aren't supposed to be just the political wing of the Welsh Language society.
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
I'm amazed people are still talking about a possible GONU. That is impossible without the support of either the Labour or Tory leader, unless approximately 300 MPs across the two parties defect from them.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
Tell me. How is TM going to vonc her own elected successor and do you think the party would let her
I've explained above how she can conduct an indicative VONC through a business motion. How can the Party stop her? Even if the 1922 committee change the rules so that Tory MPs can VONC Mrs May, and they do so, she remains PM until her successor is appointed by the Queen, and retains the power of the PM to determine who that is.
I'm amazed people are still talking about a possible GONU. That is impossible without the support of either the Labour or Tory leader, unless approximately 300 MPs across the two parties defect from them.
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
It says Plaid Cymru are in talks to field a joint Remain candidate, and they want something in return.
(I suspect the LibDems think they have no need to grant anything in return, so it will come to nothing).
Presumably a reciprocal stand down in a PC Westminster target seat.
Presumably, but that may not be quite so easy to arrange at short notice.
Adam Price clearly says he wants something in return.
(I am not entirely sure that the Plaid Cymru and LibDems voters are quite so willing to be parcelled up as gifts by their leaders).
Oh, I agree that there is always some shrinkage when people cannot vote for their preferred party. Voters cannot be shifted about without consequence.
Not all members can be parcelled either. If I lived in a constituency where there wasn't a Lib Dem candidate, due to a pact, I'd not vote. I didn't join the Lib Dems to help other parties with which I have very little common ground. I'm happy to work with others after an election but I standing aside for another party takes choice away from voters.
Absolutely.
I regularly vote Plaid Cymru, and nothing would make me vote for Jane Dodds in B&R.
What is wrong with Jane Dodds? The political gene pool in Wales is currently pretty shallow and she strikes me as being no more useless than the rest of them.
The core Plaid vote has always been militant Welsh speakers which is precisely why they have never emulated the success of the SNP.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
This is only the first few days and the trend is there
And this is where members may well be making a huge mistake if the general public continue to fall out with him
Great pressure to meet OGH at the second LD leadership election hustings in London this evening.
Both Jo and Ed made short opening and closing speeches but spent the bulk of the 90 minute session answering questions from the audience.
My take on it - Ed emphasised his experience, both inside and outside Government and stressed his environmental credentials. Jo played the more media friendly card as someone able to get through to a largely apolitical audience. Both played the stop Brexit/people's vote themes strongly as you would expect.
We heard lots about tectonic plates shifting and new opportunities which, as a near forty year member, I've heard a few times before and there were kind words for Chuka, the newest LD MP and a rallying cry to go and help Jane Dodds win Brecon & Radnor.
Has it helped me decide? As I said to OGH, I went in undecided and came out none the wiser. In truth. both spoke very well and there's very little between them on areas of policy as you'd expect.
My mind went back to the Farron vs Lamb hustings in 2015 and before that to Clegg vs Huhne in 2007. Davey is the insider candidate, the activist - he has the Ashdown energy without the messianic nature of a Farron. He would stand up to both Johnson and Corbyn.
Swinson is a different character - better at engaging with prospective LD voters, wholly personable and engaging.
If we choose Davey, all three main parties will be led by white, male London MPs and I'm not sure what message that sends to the rest of the country. OTOH, that's not a reason not to choose Davey if he's genuinely the better candidate.
The dilemma I have is while I think Ed Davey might be the better candidate for the Party, Jo Swinson is in my view better placed to get more votes for LD candidates and hopefully many more MPs at the GE.
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7)
Voters? Members? General public?
General public
Not worth terribly much then, sadly.
Yes, if Boris is still ahead with the public he will be well ahead still with Tory members
Presumably the worst case for the party's electoral chances is that he does better than Hunt with members but worse than Hunt with the electorate. (Or vice-versa, but that's extremely unlikely)
So half of all voters think it's relevant? That's more than I expected.
I hate Bozo but agree it’s irrelevant . As long as he didn’t lay a finger on her I really could care less what happened .
I’m actually surprised it’s as high as 39% . The media have cremated the story, I’d rather his clueless Brexit plan was held up for scrutiny than his private life.
So half of all voters think it's relevant? That's more than I expected.
I hate Bozo but agree it’s irrelevant . As long as he didn’t lay a finger on her I really could care less what happened .
I’m actually surprised it’s as high as 39% . The media have cremated the story, I’d rather his clueless Brexit plan was held up for scrutiny than his private life.
Well, for one it is more salacious, but is also something they can contrast with the other contender, whereas a focus on clueless Brexit plan means the story is the same for both.
- ”To date, no one has ever gone broke betting on the Conservative Remainers failing to follow through. So it must remain by some way the likeliest outcome that most of them will go quietly, at least initially, deluding themselves that they should wait and see. You and I might wonder what they would be waiting to see, but they aren’t called wets for nothing.”
The Tories need a hard wet.
The Remainers aren’t the wets
The “wets” are the one nation Tories (vs the Radicals like Raab and Truss and the Ultras that are in BXP/ERG).
There is some overlap between ONTs and Remainers but it’s not absolute
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
This is only the first few days and the trend is there
And this is where members may well be making a huge mistake if the general public continue to fall out with him
Don't read too much into the trend. It's a very common pattern for stories like this to cause a short-term bounce which reverses itself. That's much more likely than it accelerating under its own strength, unless the story itself continues to develop.
There's a couple of issues with an election before B-Day2(or is it 3?). 1) they'd not want to be campaigning during August and with the Tory leadership election finishing late july it'd not happen before then 2) if the election was to be announced on the first week after the summer recess (around the 4th September) with the dissolution of parliament on the 12th and election day on the 17th which would give 2 weeks before B-Day2 to form a government. any later and it gets tight. 3) an election in september requires the dissolution of parliament in august while it is in recess 4) I can't see the Tory party wanting to be campaigning during conference season
I can see a late election (after B-Day2) following another delay (until march 2020) but not before
Were a VNOC to be passed in late July, I would expect the Summer recess to be delayed to facilitate the formation of an alternative Government within a 14 day period. That would take us a week into August, at which point a Dissolution would occur in the event of there not having been an affirmative Confidence Vote in a new PM. That might imply an election could take place on 12th September - but the fact of a Bank Holiday at the end of the month might well have the effect of delaying the earliest practical election date to 19th September.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."
Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
This is only the first few days and the trend is there
And this is where members may well be making a huge mistake if the general public continue to fall out with him
Don't read too much into the trend. It's a very common pattern for stories like this to cause a short-term bounce which reverses itself. That's much more likely than it accelerating under its own strength, unless the story itself continues to develop.
Or some new story adds to the pressure. Which is more likely than this one continuing to develop, but IDK, it feels like it had pretty much run its course, and the more it looks like a campaign to get Boris, the less effective it might be.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
He's a Southern Old Etonian Tory MP. It's assumed by even the most apolitical that he supports City bankers. It's hardly a "gotcha" moment.
I can understand that but he seems to be freefall with the public
He is still ahead with the public
He needs to halt the trend.
This could become a crisis for him and he only has himself to blame
Up until now, I've believed that Boris' main asset is not his charisma (which in my mind is extremely questionable), but his ability to set the media narriatve. If this story keeps dragging on and dominating the headlines I'm going to have to reconsider that.
Sky reporting that Boris has seen a big drop in his lead indicated by their own poll
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
And yet still leads comfortably. Presumably his lead among Tories remains even larger, and what happens once the excitement of the past few days dies down?
This is only the first few days and the trend is there
And this is where members may well be making a huge mistake if the general public continue to fall out with him
Don't read too much into the trend. It's a very common pattern for stories like this to cause a short-term bounce which reverses itself. That's much more likely than it accelerating under its own strength, unless the story itself continues to develop.
Or some new story adds to the pressure. Which is more likely than this one continuing to develop, but IDK, it feels like it had pretty much run its course, and the more it looks like a campaign to get Boris, the less effective it might be.
Another possibility is that Hunt's campaign comes up with some good talking points/slogans which connect with the negative perception created by the story. But to my mind that's less likely
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."
Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."
Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.
Well they'd better get a move on!
They've got until 21 July. Boris might implode or even pull out before then. Why go public with a letter before they need to?
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."
Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.
Well they'd better get a move on!
They've got until 21 July. Boris might implode or even pull out before then. Why go public with a letter before they need to?
Surely the longer they leave it, the more catastrophic for the party. Even letting him get to the final two was grossly irresponsible if they intend to VONC to prevent him from taking power.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
He's a Southern Old Etonian Tory MP. It's assumed by even the most apolitical that he supports City bankers. It's hardly a "gotcha" moment.
I never said it was but there’s a huge list of gaffs in the Bozo dossier . Defending bankers though will go down very badly in some marginal seats . Bozo is a gift to Labour and a horror show for Scottish Tories .
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
Hunt is not a threat to Labour, as that Sky poll shows Boris is more popular than Hunt in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North where most of the marginal seats are, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.
I can understand that but he seems to be freefall with the public
He is still ahead with the public
He needs to halt the trend.
This could become a crisis for him and he only has himself to blame
The other point to be made is that Hunt has had far less exposure to the wider public than Boris. Only now will many be taking a close look at him.
Good point Justin
Of all the serious non-Boris contenders, I feel like Hunt has done the least to construct a persona or narriatve for himself. He seems content to be a hazy, not-Boris-shaped blob. But maybe his campaign will now enter a phase two which will change that.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
Hunt is not a threat, as that Sky polls shows Boris is more popular in the UK in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.
In Leaverville Boris is well ahead of Hunt
You’re ignoring what an election campaign would do. Labour will be cracking open the champagne when Bozo becomes PM.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
Hunt is not a threat, as that Sky polls shows Boris is more popular in the UK in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.
In Leaverville Boris is well ahead of Hunt
You’re ignoring what an election campaign would do. .
Could do. While I do not like him, there's a reason Boris starts off with such a big advantage, and he could retain it.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
Hunt is not a threat, as that Sky polls shows Boris is more popular in the UK in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.
In Leaverville Boris is well ahead of Hunt
You’re ignoring what an election campaign would do. Labour will be cracking open the champagne when Bozo becomes PM.
The Tories will be cracking open the champagne when Boris wins an overall majority certainly, he is a far better campaigner than May and will win back Brexit Party voters in those key marginal seats to the Tories
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
Hunt is not a threat to Labour, as that Sky poll shows Boris is more popular than Hunt in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North where most of the marginal seats are, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
We know you think 2 is a cute idea but it won’t happen. It would destroy the party. May will recommend the leader of the largest party in the Commons. It would be extraordinary if she were to do anything else
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House.
The test is not "has the confidence of the House", but the person who is "best placed" to command the confidence of the House.
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
If there are Tory MPs who'd vote against their government if it was led by Boris, before he's had a chance to actually do anything, why aren't they saying so now? Why would they wait until the day he's declared winner to say "Hey, guess what guys!..."
Some of them are. There are rumours that a number of Tory MPs plan to write to Mrs May declaring that a government led by Johnson would not have their confidence.
Well they'd better get a move on!
They've got until 21 July. Boris might implode or even pull out before then. Why go public with a letter before they need to?
Surely the longer they leave it, the more catastrophic for the party. Even letting him get to the final two was grossly irresponsible if they intend to VONC to prevent him from taking power.
They can't stop the members voting for him! The die is cast and it is catastrophic for the party.
We are only talking about 10-15 Tory MPs who would be prepared to VONC him. But that would be enough.
Hope, if Boris wins, TM advises HM that Kenneth Clarke and a GNU is the country's only hope of a stable government. She owes Boris few favours, but we may think she owes the country a few.
One other point. An immediate vonc in late July would lead to the cancellation of the summer holidays as mps deal with the crisis and even a GE fought through the summer holidays
Seems unlikely but who knows
Have you tried to book a holiday in late June or July. They are priced as peak and most everyone we know with school children are going away from early July to mid August
Also mps will have committed thousands to their summer holidays and it is lost money if they do not go as it is not covered by insurance
Even if Boris does lose a VONC I think the likeliest date for a general election is early September not July or August.
Plus of course we now have postal and proxy votes so even if it is in August and people are on holiday they can still vote
Campaigning in August would be a nonsense
I think Boris will be PM, I cannot see a VONC the next day myself.
There are two different mechanisms for a VONC in a new PM.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Re no 2 - TM ceases to be pm on the result of the ballot and would have no power to do so
She stops being PM when she dies, resigns the position of PM, or HMQ fires her. Not before. You could elect ten million leaders of the Conservative Party and that would still be the case.
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
I’m one of those Labourites now disaffected because of Corbyn but see Hunt as a much bigger threat .
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
Hunt is not a threat, as that Sky polls shows Boris is more popular in the UK in the South, the Midlands and Wales and the North, Hunt is only more popular than Boris in London which will mostly not vote Tory anyway regardless of which of them leads and more narrowly in Scotland ie Remainerville.
In Leaverville Boris is well ahead of Hunt
You’re ignoring what an election campaign would do. Labour will be cracking open the champagne when Bozo becomes PM.
The Tories will be cracking open the champagne when Boris wins an overall majority certainly, he is a far better campaigner than May and will win back Brexit Party voters in those key marginal seats to the Tories
I would join you but I have very many reservations on that score
Now your man is up on BBC news - let us see how he gets on
Labour are desperate for Bozo to become PM for several reasons .
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
Yeah, you can tell by all the Labourites constantly attacking Johnson that they really want him as Tory leader...
Good point. The way we Nats kept pointing out what a disaster Jim Murphy (who he?) was showed how much we feared him as SLab leader.
Comments
As someone who is on at 110/1, I say Go Hunt!
Belief in Brexit
Entirely, because they have nothing but Brexit, given they would even see the UK destroyed to achieve it.
1. Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen as someone who has the confidence of the House. Johnson kisses hands, picks up the nuclear codes and becomes PM. There is a subsequent VONC in his government which succeeds or not. That's one way.
2. The other way is that Mrs May, while remaining PM, tests whether Johnson has the confidence of the House by introducing an amendable business motion " A government led by Boris Johnson has the confidence of this House". Call it an indicative VONC. If it succeeds, Mrs May recommends Johnson to the Queen and he becomes PM.
If it is amendable, other candidates may be proposed and tested. If such an amendment passes, Mrs May recommends that person. If no-one can command the confidence of the House, she then has no choice but to call a GE, remaining PM in the meantime.
Still, don't knock it. The Lib Dem/Green alliance in parts of Oxfordshire has proved extraordinarily successful - two districts, one MP, even a handful of councillors on the none-more-Tory Cherwell DC.
Also, this Jezza talk is getting confusing. Can we refer to one as Jezza the Hunt and the other as the Jezziah to distinguish?
EDIT As PM she retains the power to introduce business motions. In particular she retains the power to choose who she recommends to the Queen to be next PM.
The Australians had a general election in August in 2010
That's a really important point on which constitutional lawyers of my acquaintance get quite agitated - otherwise minority governments would be impossible. And it's not up exclusively up to May although she has a leading role as the principal adviser to the Crown, the Cabinet Manual says
"if there is doubt it is the responsibility of those involved in the political process, and in particular the parties represented in Parliament, to seek to determine and communicate clearly to the Sovereign who is best placed to be able to command the confidence of the House of Commons. As the Crown’s principal adviser this responsibility falls especially on the incumbent Prime Minister, who at the time of his or her resignation may also be asked by the Sovereign for a recommendation on who can best command the confidence of the House of Commons in his or her place. "
Para 2.9 of https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/60641/cabinet-manual.pdf
David Cameron remained Prime Minister for two days after Theresa May succeeded him as Tory leader.
However, I do not see it happening in July before Boris/Hunt has had meetings with the EU
If there is doubt, and there may well be, she may feel obliged to test with an indicative VONC, who is best placed etc,
She doesn't owe Johnson any favours. She knows what he's like. She knows his "strategy" is vapid. She cares about her Party.
EDIT Party members will be up in arms - but most of them vote for the Brexit Party anyway so she may feel "sod 'em".
What would a seven week election campaign against opponents who really want to defeat him and his entire Party look like?
(we cut to Labour Headquarters, where everyone is muttering like a mantra, "Pick Boris, pick Boris, pick Boris...")
Boris 37 (-7) Hunt 32 (+7) Dont knows 31
1) they'd not want to be campaigning during August and with the Tory leadership election finishing late july it'd not happen before then
2) if the election was to be announced on the first week after the summer recess (around the 4th September) with the dissolution of parliament on the 12th and election day on the 17th which would give 2 weeks before B-Day2 to form a government. any later and it gets tight.
3) an election in september requires the dissolution of parliament in august while it is in recess
4) I can't see the Tory party wanting to be campaigning during conference season
I can see a late election (after B-Day2) following another delay (until march 2020) but not before
Unless Grieve or Clarke or A N Other resigns the whip they should be counted as Tories as far as May is concerned for her recommendation.
He’s more likely to cause a complete meltdown in the Tory party . There are a huge choice of campaign slogans ready to go that they have from his huge past catalogue of gaffs .
Bozo just gave them a gold plated one with his defending bankers . Labour are hoping in the hate stakes the anti vote will be stronger against Bozo .
Labour would find it more difficult against Hunt regardless of what the current polls show..
A case in point:
I must have shit eyes because I cannot see the difference in his hair.
https://news.sky.com/story/boris-johnsons-row-with-girlfriend-irrelevant-to-his-suitability-as-pm-sky-data-poll-11748110
And this is where members may well be making a huge mistake if the general public continue to fall out with him
Great pressure to meet OGH at the second LD leadership election hustings in London this evening.
Both Jo and Ed made short opening and closing speeches but spent the bulk of the 90 minute session answering questions from the audience.
My take on it - Ed emphasised his experience, both inside and outside Government and stressed his environmental credentials. Jo played the more media friendly card as someone able to get through to a largely apolitical audience. Both played the stop Brexit/people's vote themes strongly as you would expect.
We heard lots about tectonic plates shifting and new opportunities which, as a near forty year member, I've heard a few times before and there were kind words for Chuka, the newest LD MP and a rallying cry to go and help Jane Dodds win Brecon & Radnor.
Has it helped me decide? As I said to OGH, I went in undecided and came out none the wiser. In truth. both spoke very well and there's very little between them on areas of policy as you'd expect.
My mind went back to the Farron vs Lamb hustings in 2015 and before that to Clegg vs Huhne in 2007. Davey is the insider candidate, the activist - he has the Ashdown energy without the messianic nature of a Farron. He would stand up to both Johnson and Corbyn.
Swinson is a different character - better at engaging with prospective LD voters, wholly personable and engaging.
If we choose Davey, all three main parties will be led by white, male London MPs and I'm not sure what message that sends to the rest of the country. OTOH, that's not a reason not to choose Davey if he's genuinely the better candidate.
The dilemma I have is while I think Ed Davey might be the better candidate for the Party, Jo Swinson is in my view better placed to get more votes for LD candidates and hopefully many more MPs at the GE.
More musing required...
I’m actually surprised it’s as high as 39% . The media have cremated the story, I’d rather his clueless Brexit plan was held up for scrutiny than his private life.
However Hunt leads Boris 41% to 22% in London and more narrowly by 32% to 29% in Scotland.
Boris leads Hunt strongly with men 42% to 33% but with women it is almost tied with Boris on 33% and Hunt on 32%.
Boris leads Hunt 39% to 26% with 18 to 34s, 39% to 28% with 35s to 54s but Hunt leads Boris 41% to 34% with over 55s
https://interactive.news.sky.com/240619_JOHNSON_TABS.pdf
I wouldn’t describe the LDs as “an English party”. They are Welsh Unionists and British federalists.
The “wets” are the one nation Tories (vs the Radicals like Raab and Truss and the Ultras that are in BXP/ERG).
There is some overlap between ONTs and Remainers but it’s not absolute
This could become a crisis for him and he only has himself to blame
Just madness for Plaid to leave the field in such an important constituency here in Wales
And Wales voted leave
Bozo has no chance of getting anything out of the EU , Hunt could get something and isn’t hated in Brussels .
Hunt is a bit beige but seems pretty harmless , I expect there would be a huge anti Bozo vote.
If the Tories had any sense they’d have gone for Hunt , they don’t so will go for Bozo .
They’ve invested so much emotionally in him when failure comes it will be especially brutal and ugly .
In Leaverville Boris is well ahead of Hunt
We are only talking about 10-15 Tory MPs who would be prepared to VONC him. But that would be enough.
Now your man is up on BBC news - let us see how he gets on
The way we Nats kept pointing out what a disaster Jim Murphy (who he?) was showed how much we feared him as SLab leader.