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Boris is intent on chasing unicorns whilst doing a poor pastiche of Churchill. I expect he twist and turn, will likely create chaos and open the door to opponents.HYUFD said:
Why? Hunt's policy is he will competently renegotiate the backstop.Jonathan said:
You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.HYUFD said:
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win
The EU will competently say no.
Hunt will then competently extend Article 50 again rather than leave with No Deal or try for a GB FTA.
Hunt will then competently lead the Tories to be slaughtered by Farage and Corbyn at the next general election as a result
Meanwhile Hunt has a small chance off success, pulling off a John Major style appeal to conservative voters, although possibly not ideological Tories.
That’s my take. Counter intuitive perhaps in the mad world of Trump. But hopefully food for thought.
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I have heard many voters say they would vote Tory again if Boris was leader when canvassing on the doorsteps, I have yet to hear one saying they would vote Tory again if Hunt was leadernichomar said:
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy s or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Jedi to be the UK's top religion?tlg86 said:
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Then I have good news, they will probably switch places and we will have a clown as PM and a buffoon as LotO.JackW said:
Jeremy Corbyn has personalty too but I'd rather hope we didn't have a clown as Leader of the Opposition and a buffoon as Prime Minster.Vinny said:Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.
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We will not Brexit without a GE as the current Commons will likely vote to extend again or revoke rather than deliver BrexitOldKingCole said:
If (yes I know) Brexit is half the disaster forecast then the next GE WILL be about BrexitHYUFD said:
It will not be a Brexit election if we actually Brexit before the next general election as both parties promised before the last general election.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
If we are still in the EU by the next general election then Brexit will dominate0 -
Yes - if people are asked the question - but that does not make Brexit the most salient issue despite its obvious importance. I suspect this particularly applies to Labour voters for most of whom other matters will override.The overwhelming sense that I get as a fellow political anorak is that the electorate at large is thoroughly sick to death of it. The idea that we would spend five or six weeks in an election campaign simply focussing on Brexit is 'for the birds' - voters will be very receptive to other problems being raised.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
I don't doubt that Boris will be a better vote-getter than Hunt. OTOH, Hunt is a better person. And, Boris might just blow up the party.0
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I put "Arsène Knows" in 2011. I might go for "Brexit means Brexit" in 2021.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jedi to be the UK's top religion?tlg86 said:
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
He also thinks No deal won't be much of a problem because Johnson will agree a FTA in a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
Hunt may do a Major but more likely Major 1997 than 1992 if he does not deliver BrexitJonathan said:
Boris is intent on chasing unicorns whilst doing a poor pastiche of Churchill. I expect he twist and turn, will likely create chaos and open the door to opponents.HYUFD said:
Why? Hunt's policy is he will competently renegotiate the backstop.Jonathan said:
You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.HYUFD said:
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win
The EU will competently say no.
Hunt will then competently extend Article 50 again rather than leave with No Deal or try for a GB FTA.
Hunt will then competently lead the Tories to be slaughtered by Farage and Corbyn at the next general election as a result
Meanwhile Hunt has a small chance off success, pulling off a John Major style appeal to conservative voters, although possibly not ideological Tories.
That’s my take. Counter intuitive perhaps in the mad world of Trump. But hopefully food for thought.0 -
Were it any other time, or the contest had happened back in December for example, I could see it possible working The extenstion past March has changed the political realities so much, it genuinely caused massive shifts in support, and if they would ever have gone for such an appeal I don't think it is now - they know the situation is desperate and either believe, or hope, that Johnson can provide the oomph factor that will see then exceed expectations. And though I think he's awful, in terms of damage limitation I can see why that would be so.Jonathan said:
Boris is intent on chasing unicorns whilst doing a poor pastiche of Churchill. I expect he twist and turn, will likely create chaos and open the door to opponents.HYUFD said:
Why? Hunt's policy is he will competently renegotiate the backstop.Jonathan said:
You are lost. Hunt is competent. Boris is not. If you want Brexit you’re better off with Hunt.HYUFD said:
Which in your eyes means picking another Remainer to fail to deliver Brexit again so we can lose gracefully to Corbyn or Farage at the next general election.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:
Perhaps your vote is a blank cheque, mine is not. I’ll wait to see what happens. The world is upside down. Hunt is not a complete no. I could not vote for Boris.HYUFD said:
Enough of that, I want a leader now who actually believes in Brexit and wants to deliver it and can win
The EU will competently say no.
Hunt will then competently extend Article 50 again rather than leave with No Deal or try for a GB FTA.
Hunt will then competently lead the Tories to be slaughtered by Farage and Corbyn at the next general election as a result
Meanwhile Hunt has a small chance off success, pulling off a John Major style appeal to conservative voters, although possibly not ideological Tories.
That’s my take. Counter intuitive perhaps in the mad world of Trump. But hopefully food for thought.0 -
I’m sorry but that leaves me totally confused, or is it that no matter what it’s a buffoonish clown who is PM.kle4 said:
Then I have good news, they will probably switch places and we will have a clown as PM and a buffoon as LotO.JackW said:
Jeremy Corbyn has personalty too but I'd rather hope we didn't have a clown as Leader of the Opposition and a buffoon as Prime Minster.Vinny said:Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.
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As was Clinton (Bill, not Hillary), or at least sexual harassment.HYUFD said:0 -
Boris is the Heineken of politicians , he reaches voters others cannot reach . Love him or loathe him he is a vote winnerHYUFD said:
I have heard many voters say they would vote Tory again if Boris was leader when canvassing on the doorsteps, I have yet to hear one saying they would vote Tory again if Hunt was leadernichomar said:
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy s or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
And only two Sith, if the Statistics Authority are doing things properly.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jedi to be the UK's top religion?tlg86 said:
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
If Boris wins a majority he can do a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop without the DUP blocking himalex. said:
He also thinks No deal won't be much of a problem because Johnson will agree a FTA in a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
Agreedkjohnw said:
Boris is the Heineken of politicians , he reaches voters others cannot reach . Love him or loathe him he is a vote winnerHYUFD said:
I have heard many voters say they would vote Tory again if Boris was leader when canvassing on the doorsteps, I have yet to hear one saying they would vote Tory again if Hunt was leadernichomar said:
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy s or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Boris is indeed not the messiah, nor even the destined best Tory leader since Thatcher that HYUFD is already convinced hte will be. But the more staid, competent appeal of a May or Hunt is not guaranteed to work either, particularly not in very unusual times. I'd be a lot more comfortable if the Tories went with Hunt, but does he really have any better a plan than Boris? And if he doesn't, who is best for the party in a fallback position of GE? (better it be about the country, but obviously the drivers of any political party think the two are one and the same)Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here0 -
Am i right on the timescale, or might it take a bit longer than that?HYUFD said:
If Boris wins a majority he can do a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop without the DUP blocking himalex. said:
He also thinks No deal won't be much of a problem because Johnson will agree a FTA in a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
Well yes, but it was really just to suggest that I think Corbyn will be PM and Boris LotO before too long.nichomar said:
I’m sorry but that leaves me totally confused, or is it that no matter what it’s a buffoonish clown who is PM.kle4 said:
Then I have good news, they will probably switch places and we will have a clown as PM and a buffoon as LotO.JackW said:
Jeremy Corbyn has personalty too but I'd rather hope we didn't have a clown as Leader of the Opposition and a buffoon as Prime Minster.Vinny said:Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.
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My wife is not very interested in politics, she thought Theresa May was doing her best and was being undermined by scheming men who refused to see that they could not have the perfect Brexit they wanted. But when it comes to Bojo she is in no doubt - how could a man who treats women like thats possibly be put forward as PM? He disgusts me. Even Corbyn would be better.HYUFD said:
I have heard many voters say they would vote Tory again if Boris was leader when canvassing on the doorsteps, I have yet to hear one saying they would vote Tory again if Hunt was leadernichomar said:
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy s or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
I suspect that she is not alone in holding this view.0 -
May has often had a compulsive aversion to telling the truth - but is clearly not disreputable and amoral as a human being in the way that Boris shows every sign of being.HYUFD said:
May is a moral, good person, that did not enable her to win a general election though did itSean_F said:I don't doubt that Boris will be a better vote-getter than Hunt. OTOH, Hunt is a better person.
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How big a majority does he need, considering it would be very optimistic to assume all Tories wil back him on that, even if they promise they will follow the plan in order to be reselected for a snap GE.HYUFD said:
If Boris wins a majority he can do a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop without the DUP blocking himalex. said:
He also thinks No deal won't be much of a problem because Johnson will agree a FTA in a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke
0 -
We will all get excited about the Tory leadership election for the next four weeks. But does it really matter?
There is still no solution to Brexit that is simultaneously negotiable with the EU, able to command a majority in parliament, and doesn't split the Tory party in half. So a general election is more or less inevitable.
I can't see that either of these men can win that election since there is no majority in the country for their likely solution to Brexit, and they have nothing appealing to say on any other issues. The only difference is that Hunt would face a BXP-Labour pincer movement while Johnson would force a straight no deal vs referendum choice, in which Labour would support a second referendum and win.
They really are fucked.0 -
Self-made. Doesn't need the ego boost.Benpointer said:
I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.Mexicanpete said:
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.
I was interviewed by one of the guys who founded a [redacted public opinion research house]. We were discussing the criteria people use when deciding to buy stuff. In one of my interview questions the question about purchasing toilet paper came up (the beer and pampers anecdote is a myth, incidentally) and he wanted to know why I refused to buy high-quality premium toilet paper. I pointed out that I was born piss-poor and I was b******d if I was going to spend that much money wiping my arse. He said "Me too".
To prevent this appearing in r/thathappened, I need to point out I didn't get the job...
0 -
Gassy crap that had its best years a couple of decades ago ?kjohnw said:
Boris is the Heineken of politicians...HYUFD said:
I have heard many voters say they would vote Tory again if Boris was leader when canvassing on the doorsteps, I have yet to hear one saying they would vote Tory again if Hunt was leadernichomar said:
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The UK electoral map is not one homogeneous equation that runs by pre determined logic, especially when you see voting opinions based on hypothetical non elections. Yes you can have a poll showing party x has y% but to then translate that into votes in the ballot box is a fantasy s or in seats that you can win through differential turn out you’ll understand, otherwise at for the only poll that matters.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Does David Roe still post on this site ?TheScreamingEagles said:
I do.alex. said:
Do you have contacts on the Sun's editorial board?HYUFD said:
If you had actually bothered to read a word I wrote on the last thread which again clearly you have not, you would have read I said the Sun would likely stay neutral in the leadership race but endorse the Tories whichever of Boris or Hunt wins provided they deliver Brexit. If they do not and extend again the Sun may even endorse Farage and the Brexit PartyCarlottaVance said:The Sun....totally behind Boris....
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/1142502515960946691
Well one current member and the former editor of thesun.co.uk
But as the Queen told me, she hates name droppers.0 -
No doubt the person who contacted the Guardian is a remainer and Tory hater but nevertheless post Midnight council estate style screaming matches make a certain type of country Tory uncomfortable. Hunt I reckon gained 5 points today.Sean_F said:I don't doubt that Boris will be a better vote-getter than Hunt. OTOH, Hunt is a better person.
0 -
It will be an interesting match up. Far from the views of his adoring hordes (perhaps slightly less adoring than they used to be) Corbyn has plenty of things to be heavily criticised over, but if you don't see his occasional petulant outbursts at the media for example, he projects an air of calm, politeness and good manners. The contrast with Boris doing his best Trump impression, with added latin, will be stark, and it will be interesting to see what the last few years have done with regards the anti-corbyn factor.anothernick said:
My wife is not very interested in politics, she thought Theresa May was doing her best and was being undermined by scheming men who refused to see that they could not have the perfect Brexit they wanted. But when it comes to Bojo she is in no doubt - how could a man who treats women like thats possibly be put forward as PM? He disgusts me. Even Corbyn would be better.HYUFD said:
I have heard ory again if Hunt was leadernichomar said:
Ok then if Johnson is Tory leader they are all going down the polling station to vote Tory because it’s ‘boris’. Good luck with that it’s about as likely as the TBP winning more than ten seats.HYUFD said:
If you want to get Tories and Leavers out to vote at the next general election then Boris is the man to do it, not Hunt who will enthuse voters as much as May did in 2017nichomar said:
The matters.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
I suspect that she is not alone in holding this view.0 -
Brexit, if it were done today.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jedi to be the UK's top religion?tlg86 said:
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
By 2021, there’ll be mainly apostates.
0 -
Well I suppose we are using the time up well before the next deadline determining what the country can unite around and will command a majority in the HOC. Yet to see a single realistic solution that can be delivered within the time constraints. If people think no deal is a solution .....
You are welcome to it but at least have the decency to stay and sort it out.0 -
Ahem. I would not claim them as incredibly accurate, but there is more to them than "guesswork", and the "largely manipulated" bit is a subjective way of putting it.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
0 -
In the unlikely event that Hunt did win the Tory leadership, then that in itself would suggest that his electoral appeal is greater than some are assuming.0
-
Fun story. I sometimes like to reflect why I am willing to spend money on some things and not others, it is probably an interesting field to consider.viewcode said:
Self-made. Doesn't need the ego boost.Benpointer said:
I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.Mexicanpete said:
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.
I was interviewed by one of the guys who founded a [redacted public opinion research house]. We were discussing the criteria people use when deciding to buy stuff. In one of my interview questions the question about purchasing toilet paper came up (the beer and pampers anecdote is a myth, incidentally) and he wanted to know why I refused to buy high-quality premium toilet paper. I pointed out that I was born piss-poor and I was b******d if I was going to spend that much money wiping my arse. He said "Me too".
To prevent this appearing in r/thathappened, I need to point out I didn't get the job...1 -
-
I don't know what you mean, I always backed remain and any thousands of posts that indicate otherwise are a filthy piece of fake newsNigelb said:
Brexit, if it were done today.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jedi to be the UK's top religion?tlg86 said:
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
By 2021, there’ll be mainly apostates.
0 -
I agree that Boris is "characterful", but to present him as decisive and strong is difficult to believe. His life history is full of indecision and weakness.Vinny said:Hunt comes over as diffident, weak and characterless. He cannot make that up by appearing articulate. Mr Smithson, the job of PM requires personality.
0 -
An election under these conditions would be absolutely mental. I don't think anyone could say with any confidence who would win it, but the leader could make a *lot* of difference.OnlyLivingBoy said:We will all get excited about the Tory leadership election for the next four weeks. But does it really matter?
There is still no solution to Brexit that is simultaneously negotiable with the EU, able to command a majority in parliament, and doesn't split the Tory party in half. So a general election is more or less inevitable.
I can't see that either of these men can win that election since there is no majority in the country for their likely solution to Brexit, and they have nothing appealing to say on any other issues. The only difference is that Hunt would face a BXP-Labour pincer movement while Johnson would force a straight no deal vs referendum choice, in which Labour would support a second referendum and win.
They really are fucked.
Also if the Tory Party splits then it matters a lot who gets which half.
So yes, it matters.0 -
Who needs toilet paper when you can use discarded copies of the sun mail and expresskle4 said:
Fun story. I sometimes like to reflect why I am willing to spend money on some things and not others, it is probably an interesting field to consider.viewcode said:
Self-made. Doesn't need the ego boost.Benpointer said:
I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.Mexicanpete said:
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.
I was interviewed by one of the guys who founded a [redacted public opinion research house]. We were discussing the criteria people use when deciding to buy stuff. In one of my interview questions the question about purchasing toilet paper came up (the beer and pampers anecdote is a myth, incidentally) and he wanted to know why I refused to buy high-quality premium toilet paper. I pointed out that I was born piss-poor and I was b******d if I was going to spend that much money wiping my arse. He said "Me too".
To prevent this appearing in r/thathappened, I need to point out I didn't get the job...0 -
Excellent header. Totally agree. Hunt has surprised today on the upside. An adult in the room.
There will be the tiny whiff of panic in Boris HQ tonight.0 -
-
There is greater joy in heaven....kle4 said:
I don't know what you mean, I always backed remain and any thousands of posts that indicate otherwise are a filthy piece of fake newsNigelb said:
Brexit, if it were done today.TheScreamingEagles said:
Jedi to be the UK's top religion?tlg86 said:
2021 Census could have some interesting entries in the religion field.Sean_F said:
It is striking though, that more people now identify as Remain or Leave than now profess a religion. For some people, being Remain or Leave has become a religion.justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris
By 2021, there’ll be mainly apostates.
0 -
UK, YouGov poll:
Wales independence referendum
Pro independence: 41% (+8)
Against independence: 59% (-8)
This excludes 29% (+2) undecided.
Fieldwork: 10-15 May 2019
Sample size: 1,1330 -
Broadcasters better get practicing saying Hunt's name.
And I think we have something to fear with TSE's relentless reminders of his bet.
0 -
D'y'know, the older I get, the more I think that is a good point. Charisma really does count. I don't know if it's sufficient, but I'm pretty sure it's close to necessary. Steve Richards pointed out that at heart Thatcher was a teacher, and this lay behind her success: she wouldn't stop until her interlocutor had gotten the point. He also pointed out that Wilson was invigorated by debate, and Blair did the masochism strategy. Success as a politician relies in getting people to agree with you, and charisma is a big part of that.HYUFD said:0 -
Corbyn has many weaknesses but as a person he seems pretty run of the mill, he doesn't come over as a user and he clearly hasn't dedicated his whole life to personal advancement.kle4 said:
It will be an interesting match up. Far from the views of his adoring hordes (perhaps slightly less adoring than they used to be) Corbyn has plenty of things to be heavily criticised over, but if you don't see his occasional petulant outbursts at the media for example, he projects an air of calm, politeness and good manners. The contrast with Boris doing his best Trump impression, with added latin, will be stark, and it will be interesting to see what the last few years have done with regards the anti-corbyn factor.0 -
-
Can you 'leak' a "row tape" that you made yourself?Scott_P said:0 -
Had WI one more batsman with the level headedness of Carlos Brathwaite, they’d have walked this match.0
-
I think that is an extremely complacent attitude indeed. I was a member until Ed left as leader and I will not be voting Labour again while Corbyn is there. Even if he panics and offers a second referendum late in the day who is going to believe he would actually deliver it?justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
God, you're not kidding:kle4 said:
Fun story. I sometimes like to reflect why I am willing to spend money on some things and not others, it is probably an interesting field to consider.viewcode said:
Self-made. Doesn't need the ego boost.Benpointer said:
I find it surprising given his wealth he didn't come back business class.Mexicanpete said:
I came back from Tokyo ANA peasant class at Easter. In the window seats in front and to the right of me was a Jeremy Hunt and his wife, in front of them were their children. Hunt seemed a normal, family guy. He will come over as decent and trustworthy, despite his tendency to pander to his audience.HYUFD said:
Hunt is Mitt Romney ie a smooth cold fish CEO who looks on paper like the ideal candidate but likely loses the next general election.The_Taxman said:I think Hunt comes across as PM material.
Boris on the other hand is like a CH4 Big brother winner.
I cannot believe Boris is even being considered as PM. He is a joke with no strategy, policies or ideas. I think Tories will be in for a negative shock if they think Boris will save them....
Boris is Trump ie the charismatic populist the liberal left establishment hates but might actually win the next general election
Johnson if he couldn't swing an RAF freebie, he would surely get The Telegraph to bump him up to the front. Man of the people he is not, the more he is tested the more he will be found wanting. His chaotic personal life is important too because it mirrors his behaviour in office.
I was interviewed by one of the guys who founded a [redacted public opinion research house]. We were discussing the criteria people use when deciding to buy stuff. In one of my interview questions the question about purchasing toilet paper came up (the beer and pampers anecdote is a myth, incidentally) and he wanted to know why I refused to buy high-quality premium toilet paper. I pointed out that I was born piss-poor and I was b******d if I was going to spend that much money wiping my arse. He said "Me too".
To prevent this appearing in r/thathappened, I need to point out I didn't get the job...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Classical_test_theory
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Item_response_theory
And those are just the ones I know of... 0 -
A interesting question for pollsters is, if Scotland has left, would you support Wales becoming independent or would you wish to stay in the Union with England?Pulpstar said:UK, YouGov poll:
Wales independence referendum
Pro independence: 41% (+8)
Against independence: 59% (-8)
This excludes 29% (+2) undecided.
Fieldwork: 10-15 May 2019
Sample size: 1,133
Once Scotland has gone, then Wales will go within the next decade.
0 -
More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .0 -
0
-
You really think the people of England, Scotland and Wales will be happy to see Northern Ireland have another referendum and not be allowed to vote themselves?HYUFD said:
If Boris wins a majority he can do a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop without the DUP blocking himalex. said:
He also thinks No deal won't be much of a problem because Johnson will agree a FTA in a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
It is technically defendable in a situation where parliament has essentially approved it subject to confirmation on one technical point, but it would not be an easy sell to MPs for the reason you give.Streeter said:
You really think the people of England, Scotland and Wales will be happy to see Northern Ireland have another referendum and not be allowed to vote themselves?HYUFD said:
If Boris wins a majority he can do a FTA for GB and let Northern Ireland voters decide on the backstop without the DUP blocking himalex. said:
He also thinks No deal won't be much of a problem because Johnson will agree a FTA in a couple of months.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Right now you are living your own fantasy to be fairHYUFD said:
The Tories improved their poll rating and won more councillorsBig_G_NorthWales said:
And how did that work outHYUFD said:
I suspect you are right that Hunt over the campaign will make it closer to 60% to 40% than 70% to 30% as it was at the beginning but Boris will still win comfortably.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And many more will follow. Boris is not the Messiah you think he is. You spent too much time with IDS. You need to broaden your horizonsHYUFD said:
No surprise thereBig_G_NorthWales said:
Most of us discount polls at present as they shift from week to week and prefer to have a more rounded and nuanced view of politics today. Very pleased with Hunt today and my watching lady wife, and voting member, recoiled in horror at Boris theatricals.alex. said:What is it about opinion polls that the more they are discredited and shown to be largely manipulated guesswork, the more seem to cling to them as the arbiters of the truth.
So 2 votes for Hunt here
IDS of course won the Tory membership vote himself in 2001 when he beat Ken Clarke0 -
Meanwhile, this ticking bomb lies at Boris's feet:
https://twitter.com/johnharris1969/status/11425136285931847680 -
Link?nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .0 -
Maybe those were the allegations.rottenborough said:
Link?nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .
0 -
Seems a bit of an overreaction. Back to normal soon, probably.Scott_P said:
After all, we need to 'get it done' as Boris said, what more does one need to know?0 -
Exactly, you can't be more Farage than Farage himself. It doesn't matter how extreme a Brexit Boris proposes, Farage will say it's effectively remaining and move the goalposts.Jonathan said:
You don’t defeat Farage by playing his game. He is a better at it than you. You are supposed to be Conservatives not ideological zealots. Play to your strengths.HYUFD said:
Getting you from 100% anti Tory to 90% anti Tory is irrelevant if the Tories keep losing 2017 Tories to 100% Brexit PartyJonathan said:0 -
I’m on iPad but it’s in the Guardian and they have a tape of Bannon bigging up his contacts with Bozo .rottenborough said:
Link?nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .0 -
The question is "is this momentum or is this a bounce"rottenborough said:
My gut feel is it is a bou ce and take another poll in two days and Boris will be back to the first poll values.0 -
Try untangling 700 years of association!rottenborough said:0 -
And it will all stick like all that stuff on Corbyn and the trots........nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .0 -
Nah the big part is that Boris is absolubtely miles ahead with the actual electorate that will be allowed to vote.Alistair said:
The question is "is this momentum or is this a bounce"rottenborough said:
My gut feel is it is a bou ce and take another poll in two days and Boris will be back to the first poll values.0 -
Did 1999 not happen? I thought they had their own government these days.rottenborough said:0 -
Which currency will you use?YBarddCwsc said:
A interesting question for pollsters is, if Scotland has left, would you support Wales becoming independent or would you wish to stay in the Union with England?Pulpstar said:UK, YouGov poll:
Wales independence referendum
Pro independence: 41% (+8)
Against independence: 59% (-8)
This excludes 29% (+2) undecided.
Fieldwork: 10-15 May 2019
Sample size: 1,133
Once Scotland has gone, then Wales will go within the next decade.0 -
I assume then that you did not vote Labour in 2017 when it polled 40%.OllyT said:
I think that is an extremely complacent attitude indeed. I was a member until Ed left as leader and I will not be voting Labour again while Corbyn is there. Even if he panics and offers a second referendum late in the day who is going to believe he would actually deliver it?justin124 said:
I doubt that very much indeed when 'the chips are down'. LD support has tended to lack depth - 'easy come - easy go'. When other issues come to the fore in an election campaign - as I expect them to - the anti-Tory vote will again coalesce around Labour. Moreover , whatever people might say now , it will not be a Brexit election.HYUFD said:
Of course they will but under Boris the Brexit Party take fewer votes off the Tories thsn the LDs take off Corbyn Labournichomar said:
They could but Farige says he’ll run candidates to keep the tories ‘honest’ . Given they can’t run a ground game then all they will do is syphon votes off from the tories letting others through the middle. So bring it onHYUFD said:
No, only if the Tories extend again post October does the polling show the Tories will be massacred.CarlottaVance said:
That's where the analysis falls.alex. said:HYUFD's contention is that once Johnson wins, he will be forced to call an election to overall Parliament vetoing no deal. He will then win that election with a majority.
On the basis of current polling (based on hypotheticals, so to be taken with buckets of salt), if the Tories go to the country again before delivering Brexit they will be massacred. Scant comfort, but so will Labour.
The "GE to deliver Brexit" has been tried once.....
If the Tories call a general election before October to get a mandate for Brexit Deal or No Deal then they could well win a majority under Boris0 -
Corbyns not a Trump poodle and wouldn’t be hanging around with pond scum like Bannon . And I’m not a Corbyn fan but Bannon is a vile white nationalist .Floater said:
And it will all stick like all that stuff on Corbyn and the trots........nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .1 -
Depends - there's lots of old material on Boris's relationships that is not as widely known about as political anoraks assume. That could keep the momentum going.Alistair said:
The question is "is this momentum or is this a bounce"rottenborough said:
My gut feel is it is a bou ce and take another poll in two days and Boris will be back to the first poll values.1 -
No, he just hangs around with pond scum like the Gerry Adamsnico67 said:
Corbyns not a Trump poodle and wouldn’t be hanging around with pond scum like Bannon . And I’m not a Corbyn fan but Bannon is a vile white nationalist .Floater said:
And it will all stick like all that stuff on Corbyn and the trots........nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign . 0 -
Just your average neighbours who flick two fingers up in your the face, boast about it on Twitter, send hate mail then tape record your arguments and send them to The Guardian
Not a shred of evidence they were anything to do with it though 🙄0 -
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There are arguments about the true Scottish financial position within the UK. There are no such arguments in Wales...Floater said:
Which currency will you use?YBarddCwsc said:
A interesting question for pollsters is, if Scotland has left, would you support Wales becoming independent or would you wish to stay in the Union with England?Pulpstar said:UK, YouGov poll:
Wales independence referendum
Pro independence: 41% (+8)
Against independence: 59% (-8)
This excludes 29% (+2) undecided.
Fieldwork: 10-15 May 2019
Sample size: 1,133
Once Scotland has gone, then Wales will go within the next decade.0 -
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Problem is the selectorate definitely know he is the only original Leaver still in the race, and is being far more bold in saying how we must definitely leave by X (even if that is not necessarily the plan). For someone who finds out only now about his various shananigans, they may well disapprove heartily, but as the timing makes it clearly designed to stop Boris becoming PM, and this presumably prevent what he (and they) want, and given how popular he starts out as, how many would hold their noses?alex. said:
Depends - there's lots of old material on Boris's relationships that is not as widely known about as political anoraks assume. That could keep the momentum going.Alistair said:
The question is "is this momentum or is this a bounce"rottenborough said:
My gut feel is it is a bou ce and take another poll in two days and Boris will be back to the first poll values.0 -
Their interview was bizarre. Started off with concern about neighbours' safety - which was fair enough, then got on to how they voted in the referendum !isam said:Just your average neighbours who flick two fingers up in your the face, boast about it on Twitter, send hate mail then tape record your arguments and send them to The Guardian
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Of course he is. So many skeletons, so much opportunity for leverage. Hell we can't even get a straight answer about how many children he has.Scott_P said:1 -
There are few MPs less qualified to be PM than Corbyn. But Johnson is one of them.nico67 said:
Corbyns not a Trump poodle and wouldn’t be hanging around with pond scum like Bannon . And I’m not a Corbyn fan but Bannon is a vile white nationalist .Floater said:
And it will all stick like all that stuff on Corbyn and the trots........nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .0 -
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Hunt dipping. Now at 5.90
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Boris haters gonna hate.
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Thanks. Doesn't surprise me. Although I suspect it is Bannon bigging himself up rather than Boris.nico67 said:
I’m on iPad but it’s in the Guardian and they have a tape of Bannon bigging up his contacts with Bozo .rottenborough said:
Link?nico67 said:More allegations of Johnson and Steve Bannon being in close contact and the latter helping him write his resignation speech last year .
At this rate Labour and the rest will have an impossible job deciding what material to use in the next GE campaign .0 -
And Corbyn haters also gonna hate.MarkHopkins said:
Boris haters gonna hate.
Doesnt' mean all the hate is unjustified.0 -
Newspapers, like bettors want a horse race. More interest.0
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A Welsh currency? ... easy - The Kinnock - 100 Windbags = 1 KinnockFloater said:
Which currency will you use?YBarddCwsc said:
A interesting question for pollsters is, if Scotland has left, would you support Wales becoming independent or would you wish to stay in the Union with England?Pulpstar said:UK, YouGov poll:
Wales independence referendum
Pro independence: 41% (+8)
Against independence: 59% (-8)
This excludes 29% (+2) undecided.
Fieldwork: 10-15 May 2019
Sample size: 1,133
Once Scotland has gone, then Wales will go within the next decade.0 -
I can see some Labour chuckles occurring tonight - Boris is getting the Corbyn treatment, with the 'security risk' stories and all.Scott_P said:
Surely the 'Hunt allies' bit is bad for Hunt though? Obviously the pair will attack each other, Hunt more than Boris because he is bringing up the rear in this contest, but that strong an attack would, I think, infuriate many Tory members.0
This discussion has been closed.