We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
The Tory LD gap is 5% under Boris and 5% under Hunt.
The Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt.
I have no doubt Boris will lose a few middle class Remainers to the LDs but Hunt will lose more mainly working class Leavers to the Brexit Party
Pro independence: 41% (+8) Against independence: 59% (-8)
This excludes 29% (+2) undecided.
Fieldwork: 10-15 May 2019 Sample size: 1,133
A interesting question for pollsters is, if Scotland has left, would you support Wales becoming independent or would you wish to stay in the Union with England?
Once Scotland has gone, then Wales will go within the next decade.
Wales was united with England for centuries before Scotland joined the Union and voted Leave by exactly the same margin as the UK as a whole.
Note even on that Yougov poll Welsh voters reject independence by a big 18% margin
So what? I have told you Wales won't Leave unless Scotland has done, so polls at the moment are not relevant.
Wales was united (sic) with England for centuries.
Slovenia was united with Venice or the Hapsburgs for centuries. Yet, Slovenia is now an independent and prosperous country.
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
You are beginning to whistle in the wind. Even the 2017 voters have lost him 10% in just two days.
Another 15 hustings like today could have very serious consequences for his leadership
It was not the hustings that costs him (today's poll largely conducted before that and Boris got a good response from the audience) but last night's Guardian plot, however Boris still has a clear lead with 2017 Tories even despite that
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
The Tory LD gap is 5% under Boris and 5% under Hunt.
The Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt.
I have no doubt Boris will lose a few middle class Remainers to the LDs but Hunt will lose more mainly working class Leavers to the Brexit Party
The fact is that the Tories need to dump Boris and Brexit. They can't win the votes they need to actually win with either. Someone needs to tell their existing Brexit supporting voters that both are too divisive. They'll no doubt not be especially happy. But they've nowhere else to go.
The hypothetical with Boris in charge stems TBP. But doesn't change the fundamentals. Lab 267 Con 248 LD. 66 SNP. 38 TBP. 9 Green. 1 PC. 3 NI. 18
FWIW. Doesn't look like an early election would be very appealing for BJ.
This might not be so bad given the other options. Lab-Lib-SNP government which might not be entirely stable, Con still overwhelmingly dominant as opposition, Boris could probably stay on as leader.
He'd then personally in charge of the Leave side in the re-referendum. If Leave wins the Labour side still have to deal with the entire shit sandwich and the Tories can get back in next time, with Brexit done and Labour's fault. If Remain wins Boris is established as the leader of the betrayed and defeated leaver tribe, who will be riled up to vote, but the voters won't be up for a *third* EU referendum, so he can win the next election and go back to actually governing.
Sure Corbyn would take that too. As would I. A second ref, and a Labour led government, out of the control of the lunatic fringe. What's not to like?
The hypothetical with Boris in charge stems TBP. But doesn't change the fundamentals. Lab 267 Con 248 LD. 66 SNP. 38 TBP. 9 Green. 1 PC. 3 NI. 18
FWIW. Doesn't look like an early election would be very appealing for BJ.
This might not be so bad given the other options. Lab-Lib-SNP government which might not be entirely stable, Con still overwhelmingly dominant as opposition, Boris could probably stay on as leader.
He'd then personally in charge of the Leave side in the re-referendum. If Leave wins the Labour side still have to deal with the entire shit sandwich and the Tories can get back in next time, with Brexit done and Labour's fault. If Remain wins Boris is established as the leader of the betrayed and defeated leaver tribe, who will be riled up to vote, but the voters won't be up for a *third* EU referendum, so he can win the next election and go back to actually governing.
I agree, Boris as Leader of the Opposition and a weak Corbyn Government neutered by the LDs and SNP and Corbyn having to deal with Brexit would not be too bad an outcome
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
The change between the two polls was larger for Conservative voters, though. Perhaps the lead for Johnson will not last?
Almost half the movement to don't know and even then Boris still 11% ahead of Hunt with 2017 Tories
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
Where is your 395 seats
Survation had a Boris led Tory Party tied with Corbyn last year, they have always had a lower Boris bounce than Yougov or Comres
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
Where is your 395 seats
It was possibly a typo. He meant 195 seats !
You know Hyufd. It cannot be a typo as he constantly repeats the 395 seat poll
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
The fact is that the Tories need to dump Boris and Brexit. They can't win the votes they need to actually win with either. Someone needs to tell their existing Brexit supporting voters that both are too divisive. They'll no doubt not be especially happy. But they've nowhere else to go.
If the Tories dump Boris and Brexit they really will be in 4th place with Jeremy on just 17 seats as Yougov forecast last week and the Brexit Party would become the main party of the right.
The fact is their Brexit supporters do have somewhere to go, Farage
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
You are beginning to whistle in the wind. Even the 2017 voters have lost him 10% in just two days.
Another 15 hustings like today could have very serious consequences for his leadership
It was not the hustings that costs him (today's poll largely conducted before that and Boris got a good response from the audience) but last night's Guardian plot, however Boris still has a clear lead with 2017 Tories even despite that
And it has fallen 10% in two days.
The trend is fast going away from him. Give it another two weeks, and by the time the ballot papers are sent, it could be 'squeaky bum time' for him
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
The Tory LD gap is 5% under Boris and 5% under Hunt.
The Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt.
I have no doubt Boris will lose a few middle class Remainers to the LDs but Hunt will lose more mainly working class Leavers to the Brexit Party
On that poll it's the other way round:
Under Boris: Tory -> Lib Dem = 3%
Under Hunt: Tory -> Brexit Party = 1%
Boris picks up 4% from the Brexit Party and loses 3% to the LDs with no change from Labour but still adds +2% to the current Tory rating.
Hunt loses 1% to the Brexit Party without winning any LDs or Labour voters and loses 1% from the current Tory rating.
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
Where is your 395 seats
Survation had a Boris led Tory Party tied with Corbyn last year, they have always had a lower Boris bounce than Yougov or Comres
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge he would not have won the election.
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge UKIP would have been over 15% and no Cameron majority
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge he would not have won the election.
Arguably the referendum pledge led to UKIP's strong performance in 2014 and 2015 because Cameron legitimised their USP.
In a similar vein, declaring a 'climate emergency' is more likely to boost the Green party than to keep them down.
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge he would not have won the election.
Yes, and we could have been enjoying the final year of Ed Miliband as PM. Corbyn would be still an obscure back bencher.
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge he would not have won the election.
Arguably the referendum pledge led to UKIP's strong performance in 2014 and 2015 because Cameron legitimised their USP.
In a similar vein, declaring a 'climate emergency' is more likely to boost the Green party than to keep them down.
UKIP polled 15% in the last poll of 2012 before Cameron made his EU referendum pledge in 2013
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
I thought one of the reasons that David Cameron won an election in 2015 was because he stole a great many voters from the LibDems.
Or am I wrong?
My point, such that there is one, is that there is no simple solution for the Conservative Party. Swing "right" (especially if you were to enter into a pact with the Brexit Party), and you risk losing to the LDs in the South East and suburbia. Swing "left" (or stay where you are), and you get cannabilised by the Brexit Party.
And as another aside, the danger of entering into a pact with the Brexit Party is that you are constantly at risk of them saying "you broke our pact! you're not Brexity enough!". They have no MPs, so their downside to doing this is - errr... - nonexistant.
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
The Tory LD gap is actually the same under Boris and Hunt but the Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt on tonight's Survation
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
And in practical terms:
1) Suppose Boris tried to call a snap election. Would the turkies vote for Christmas? Or would they develop urgent dentistry appointments?
2) Are Labour MPs in Leave-ish seats feeling lucky? If Boris/Hunt/TMay brings the WA back for one last try, wouldn't they finally be tempted to rip off the bandage?
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
The Tory LD gap is actually the same under Boris and Hunt but the Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt on tonight's Survation
Remind me again what the Tory-LibDem gap was in 2017, and how it's changed since.
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
I thought one of the reasons that David Cameron won an election in 2015 was because he stole a great many voters from the LibDems.
Or am I wrong?
My point, such that there is one, is that there is no simple solution for the Conservative Party. Swing "right" (especially if you were to enter into a pact with the Brexit Party), and you risk losing to the LDs in the South East and suburbia. Swing "left" (or stay where you are), and you get cannabilised by the Brexit Party.
And as another aside, the danger of entering into a pact with the Brexit Party is that you are constantly at risk of them saying "you broke our pact! you're not Brexity enough!". They have no MPs, so their downside to doing this is - errr... - nonexistant.
I agree they need to deal with both but Boris gains more Brexit Party voters to the Tories than he loses Tory voters to the LDs while Hunt still loses Tory voters to the Brexit Party without gaining any new LD voters to the Tories to compensate with Survation
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge he would not have won the election.
Arguably the referendum pledge led to UKIP's strong performance in 2014 and 2015 because Cameron legitimised their USP.
In a similar vein, declaring a 'climate emergency' is more likely to boost the Green party than to keep them down.
UKIP polled 15% in the last poll of 2012 before Cameron made his EU referendum pledge in 2013
It’s irrelevant what happens over the next month Bozo will be PM barring him actually shooting someone !
The Tory Membership are overwhelmingly made up of what could now be called an idealogical cult .
It’s Brexit at any cost as can be seen by the recent poll, the Union, the economy , NI imploding into more trouble is a mere irrelevance to them .
The media seem to act as if most of the membership will actually care what happens during the hustings .
It’s a month charade of holding both candidates to account.
The real fireworks won’t happen till his bluff and bluster hit the reality of actually having to deal with Brexit , instead of carping from the sidelines and playing the martyr .
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
I like the way that there is one, and only one, way to win elections.
The fact is that the Tories need to dump Boris and Brexit. They can't win the votes they need to actually win with either. Someone needs to tell their existing Brexit supporting voters that both are too divisive. They'll no doubt not be especially happy. But they've nowhere else to go.
If the Tories dump Boris and Brexit they really will be in 4th place with Jeremy on just 17 seats as Yougov forecast last week and the Brexit Party would become the main party of the right.
The fact is their Brexit supporters do have somewhere to go, Farage
So, let's just say that Boris reassures the Faragistas, and takes the UK out of the EU without a deal on 31 October. Let us then imagine that this is not an entirely pleasant experience. (I would note that the global economy is already cooling sharply, and No Deal might act as a multiplier.)
If the Conservative Party is seen to have chosen a path that to hardship, insecurity, job losses, and home reposessions, do you think the electorate will say:
(a) why didn't you take the deal, you f*cking idiots? or (b) well, I may have lost my home, but at least we didn't make a deal with those dastardly Europeans.
(a) why didn't you take the deal, you f*cking idiots? or (b) well, I may have lost my home, but at least we didn't make a deal with those dastardly Europeans.
What they should be really scared of is, aside the 70% or so who picked one of those two, how many of the remaining 30% are (c) how did these shambolic incompetents make such a pig's ear of executing on this brilliant idea?
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
The Tory LD gap is actually the same under Boris and Hunt but the Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt on tonight's Survation
Remind me again what the Tory-LibDem gap was in 2017, and how it's changed since.
Mainly because Labour voters have gone LD, the Tories have lost far fewer voters to the LDs than they have to the Brexit Party
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
I like the way that there is one, and only one, way to win elections.
Stick to the centre and betray your base and you get obliterated like Clegg's LDs or the Progressive Conservatives in Canada in 1993.
You cannot win only with your base but you certainly cannot win without them
Have you noticed that the Brexit Party do not talk about FoM at all?
They would if the PM tried to cut a deal that didn't stop it.
My point was more that if the PM tried to cut a deal that did restrict it, but left us as rule-takers on something else, they would talk about that instead. People who regard any deal on the EU's terms as 'not Brexit' will find some reason to be outraged. The detail isn't important.
Have you noticed that the Brexit Party do not talk about FoM at all?
They would if the PM tried to cut a deal that didn't stop it.
My point was more that if the PM tried to cut a deal that did restrict it, but left us as rule-takers on something else, they would talk about that instead. People who regard any deal on the EU's terms as 'not Brexit' will find some reason to be outraged. The detail isn't important.
Fairy nuff, and importantly this applies to any deal (including "mini" ones) that might be done after rejecting the WA and crashing out, in the event that such a deal could be cut.
You cannot win only with your base but you certainly cannot win without them
You don't regard middle class professionals as a critical part of the Tory base?
No. The Leave triad are a) the poor, b) the retired, and c) wealthy social conservatives. The middle class professionals don't really fit in there and are gradually being eased out.
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
Not least J, Hunt, if the local elections are a guide.
"Boss, I've got a scoop: Boris has argued with his girlfriend and it's on tape" "What, where did the tape come from?" "Some lefty nutters sent it the Guardian" "Excellent!" "Ok,...er, what!" "Attack the witnesses! Traduce their character! Photograph their house! Use insinuation and just plain abuse!" "Er, aren't we supposed to be journalists?" "Oh, listen to Mr Bloody Pulitzer there! You work for the Mail, bitch. We do celeb goss and hurting people we don't like. Now get over there and hurt people, otherwise..." "Righty-ho, boss. One assisted suicide coming up"
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
I like the way that there is one, and only one, way to win elections.
We also included hypothetical "if Boris, if Hunt" Conservative leader scenarios. Current, IF Boris, IF Hunt CON 24%, 26%, 23% LAB 26%, 26%, 26% LD 18%, 21%, 18% BREX 20%, 16%, 21%
HYUFD will not like this. Only a 2% premium for Boris. I thought 37% would vote Tory if HE was PM.
So Boris still increases the Tory voteshare by 2% to be tied with Labour while Hunt cuts the Tories voteshare by 1% and is 3% behind Labour.
That on a supposedly bad poll for Boris!
The Con-Lib Dem swing is not great though is it?
There is an interesting question here: Conservative MPs in "the Remain belt", of suburban London and SE England, who are looking at a resurgent LibDems. Is there a point at which they panic?
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
The Tory LD gap is actually the same under Boris and Hunt but the Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt on tonight's Survation
Remind me again what the Tory-LibDem gap was in 2017, and how it's changed since.
Mainly because Labour voters have gone LD, the Tories have lost far fewer voters to the LDs than they have to the Brexit Party
We are in the midst of a political skirmish with meaningless flags and no proper uniforms. The first to establish a rallying point will have a huge, but possibly not insurmountable, advantage. I still think "fucking leave" will be that rallying point.
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
How did David Cameron first take the Tories into government and then win the Tories a majority?
He won over voters who didn't vote Tory previously.
Cameron only got into government with the LDs in 2010 he did not win a majority and he only did that by reassuring his base with an inheritance tax cut proposal first.
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
Dave didn't keep UKIP down, UKIP went from 3% in 2010 to 13% in 2015.
Without the referendum pledge he would not have won the election.
Arguably the referendum pledge led to UKIP's strong performance in 2014 and 2015 because Cameron legitimised their USP.
In a similar vein, declaring a 'climate emergency' is more likely to boost the Green party than to keep them down.
UKIP polled 15% in the last poll of 2012 before Cameron made his EU referendum pledge in 2013
Between Jan 2012 to Jan 2013 UKIP had gone from 5% to above 10%. Since the pledge was made UKIP were kept down below 15% for the rest of Parliament and into the election.
The alternative scenario where no pledge was made is unknown.
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
The fanatics will never be pleased but they constitute 10% of the voters max, yet the Brexit Party are currently polling 20% and you will not win over enough LDs to compensate for losing that additional 10%.
"Boss, I've got a scoop: Boris has argued with his girlfriend and it's on tape" "What, where did the tape come from?" "Some lefty nutters sent it the Guardian" "Excellent!" "Ok,...er, what!" "Attack the witnesses! Traduce their character! Photograph their house! Use insinuation and just plain abuse!" "Er, aren't we supposed to be journalists?" "Oh, listen to Mr Bloody Pulitzer there! You work for the Mail, bitch. We do celeb goss and hurting people we don't like. Now get over there and hurt people, otherwise..." "Righty-ho, boss. One assisted suicide coming up"
She was a left-wing Remainer who stuck her finger up at Boris in the street, not a case for the Sanaritans
"Boss, I've got a scoop: Boris has argued with his girlfriend and it's on tape" "What, where did the tape come from?" "Some lefty nutters sent it the Guardian" "Excellent!" "Ok,...er, what!" "Attack the witnesses! Traduce their character! Photograph their house! Use insinuation and just plain abuse!" "Er, aren't we supposed to be journalists?" "Oh, listen to Mr Bloody Pulitzer there! You work for the Mail, bitch. We do celeb goss and hurting people we don't like. Now get over there and hurt people, otherwise..." "Righty-ho, boss. One assisted suicide coming up"
She was a left-wing Remainer who stuck her finger up at Boris in the street, not a case for the Sanaritans
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
No, we're not entirely unreasonable. We do though expect *something* to vote for at a General Election. This means the Conservatives must offer us them.
Since the 1960s, the masses of conservative voters (both Tory and Labour) have been forced between Liberal Light and Liberal. Those days are over, thanks to Mr Farage,
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
Really?
In 2016 Farage left the field as he knew he has nothing further to offer. UKIP all but died.
In 2017 UKIP was so rudderless and so useless that they failed to stand in a vast proportion of seats and lost their deposits in hundreds more.
In 2018 UKIP had gone from a serious party, to a laughing stock, to just plain embarrassing. Farage was setting himself up in the USA as he had nothing more happening here.
But then in late 2018 something changed. It looked like Britain might not leave the EU on time after all. The betting markets changed...
... in 2019 Brexit was delayed repeatedly. We didn't leave the EU as pledged. The EU elections had to happen despite commitments to the contrary. All of a sudden Farage was back
The goal posts are leaving the EU. Do that and Farage is gone. That is something most of us should appreciate whether you like Brexit or not.
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
No, we're not entirely unreasonable. We do though expect *something* to vote for at a General Election. This means the Conservatives must offer us them.
Since the 1960s, the masses of conservative voters (both Tory and Labour) have been forced between Liberal Light and Liberal. Those days are over, thanks to Mr Farage,
May was an illiberal authoritarian.
Thankfully the liberal Tory party should return with either Boris or Hunt. Both are liberals not puritanical authoritarians.
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
No, we're not entirely unreasonable. We do though expect *something* to vote for at a General Election. This means the Conservatives must offer us them.
Since the 1960s, the masses of conservative voters (both Tory and Labour) have been forced between Liberal Light and Liberal. Those days are over, thanks to Mr Farage,
May was an illiberal authoritarian.
Thankfully the liberal Tory party should return with either Boris or Hunt. Both are liberals not puritanical authoritarians.
The problem is that authoritarianism is rather popular.
It’s irrelevant what happens over the next month Bozo will be PM barring him actually shooting someone !
The Tory Membership are overwhelmingly made up of what could now be called an idealogical cult .
It’s Brexit at any cost as can be seen by the recent poll, the Union, the economy , NI imploding into more trouble is a mere irrelevance to them .
The media seem to act as if most of the membership will actually care what happens during the hustings .
It’s a month charade of holding both candidates to account.
The real fireworks won’t happen till his bluff and bluster hit the reality of actually having to deal with Brexit , instead of carping from the sidelines and playing the martyr .
I care what happens during the hustings. My vote is up for grabs, as is that of most of the other members I know, to a greater or lesser extent. We aren't all caricatures.
The problem with trying to reassure the Farage-curious Tory base is that the goal posts never stop moving: Every time you give them something Farage will find something new for them to be anxious about. And each time you do this you take yourself further away from what used to be the rest of your base...
No, we're not entirely unreasonable. We do though expect *something* to vote for at a General Election. This means the Conservatives must offer us them.
Since the 1960s, the masses of conservative voters (both Tory and Labour) have been forced between Liberal Light and Liberal. Those days are over, thanks to Mr Farage,
Boris strikes me as in the throes of a mid-life crisis. A man who has spent a couple of decades trying to reach the top, then finding it turn to ashes in his mouth and desperate to try to hang on to his youth.
He has missed out on the sports car, but losing a few stone, getting some sharper clothes and a abandoning his wife for a fickle younger woman. I wonder what sort of tattoo he has picked out...
Boris had a Lamborghini Gallardo for a while. It was in that golden age when he was writing absolutely thick-as-shit pig ignorant car reviews for GQ.
But then in late 2018 something changed. It looked like Britain might not leave the EU on time after all. The betting markets changed...
You skipped a step. You skipped the part where the PM came up with a deal intended to deliver as much of what the Leave campaign had promised as she could, and Farage and the ERG denounced it as a betrayal. That particular goalpost shift was *why* it didn't pass and the UK didn't leave the EU: The hard Leave side left it way short, and Labour MPs in leave-voting seats weren't going to stick their necks out for something their Leave supporters were saying was a sell-out.
Survation carried out its first poll on the leadership contenders shortly after MPs concluded their voting on Thursday.
It found that when asked who would make the best Prime Minister, a total of 36 per cent of all voters backed Mr Johnson and just 28 per cent supported Mr Hunt.
But a second survey yesterday put Mr Johnson on 29 per cent and Mr Hunt in the lead on 32 per cent.
Among just Tory voters, Mr Johnson had a thumping 55 per cent on Thursday, with Mr Hunt on just 28 per cent.
By yesterday Mr Johnson was on 45 per cent and Mr Hunt was on 34 per cent – more than halving the gap between them.
When all voters were asked whether the incident had made them more or less likely to back Mr Johnson as premier, more than a third – 35 per cent – said less likely, and just nine per cent said it was more likely.
More than half of all voters (53 per cent) said Mr Johnson’s private life was relevant to his ability to be Prime Minister and three-quarters said that a person’s character was relevant to the contest.
Survation’s chief executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, said: ‘It is unusual to see a politician’s private life having this level of salience among voters.’
You cannot win only with your base but you certainly cannot win without them
You don't regard middle class professionals as a critical part of the Tory base?
The Tory base is now more the retired than middle class professionals and it is a similar story for conservative parties across the western world
The Tory party becoming the party of those who already have capital and those who resent other people having a chance to earn capital in the future.
What a sad turnaround. We have no party standing up for business and good sustainable jobs that give people opportunity. The LDs are the only ones not actively trying to make it worse for business, Tories, Labour and Greens all wanting to create various plagues to threaten our economy. (Yes there are sides to business that should be threatened and changed, I am talking about the vast majority of businesses).
So much like Rory Stewart Hunt is popular with Labour and LD voters who will never vote Tory while Boris is still the strong favourite of 2017 Tories to be PM who actually might vote Tory
I thought one of the reasons that David Cameron won an election in 2015 was because he stole a great many voters from the LibDems.
Or am I wrong?
My point, such that there is one, is that there is no simple solution for the Conservative Party. Swing "right" (especially if you were to enter into a pact with the Brexit Party), and you risk losing to the LDs in the South East and suburbia. Swing "left" (or stay where you are), and you get cannabilised by the Brexit Party.
And as another aside, the danger of entering into a pact with the Brexit Party is that you are constantly at risk of them saying "you broke our pact! you're not Brexity enough!". They have no MPs, so their downside to doing this is - errr... - nonexistant.
Too much of our politics is about short term tactics, it is not about being left or right, it is choosing sensible options. If policy A gives you a temporary boost of 5% in the polls for three months, but you know you can't deliver it and you will end up letting down the voters who wanted it, along with looking weak and a liar, choose policy B. It should be very clear that the current path of both Tory candidates is wrong.
Survation carried out its first poll on the leadership contenders shortly after MPs concluded their voting on Thursday.
It found that when asked who would make the best Prime Minister, a total of 36 per cent of all voters backed Mr Johnson and just 28 per cent supported Mr Hunt.
But a second survey yesterday put Mr Johnson on 29 per cent and Mr Hunt in the lead on 32 per cent.
Among just Tory voters, Mr Johnson had a thumping 55 per cent on Thursday, with Mr Hunt on just 28 per cent.
By yesterday Mr Johnson was on 45 per cent and Mr Hunt was on 34 per cent – more than halving the gap between them.
When all voters were asked whether the incident had made them more or less likely to back Mr Johnson as premier, more than a third – 35 per cent – said less likely, and just nine per cent said it was more likely.
More than half of all voters (53 per cent) said Mr Johnson’s private life was relevant to his ability to be Prime Minister and three-quarters said that a person’s character was relevant to the contest.
Survation’s chief executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, said: ‘It is unusual to see a politician’s private life having this level of salience among voters.’
Mr. HYUFD, again you are confusing electoral appeal with the ability to do the job. As I previously said, this is not "I'm a Celebrity". A good leader of a political party must have both. Boris is arguable on the former, but all evidence points to mega-incompetence on the latter. He is therefore highly unsuitable. It is not difficult really. The bottom line is that if Tory members choose Boris Johnson they are effectively saying that his inability to do the job he needs to do is unimportant. It is the political equivalent of the "fuck business" comment that someone once said.
Comments
The Tory Labour gap is 0 under Boris but -3% under Hunt.
I have no doubt Boris will lose a few middle class Remainers to the LDs but Hunt will lose more mainly working class Leavers to the Brexit Party
Swinson = 🍺
Davey = whohe
Wales was united (sic) with England for centuries.
Slovenia was united with Venice or the Hapsburgs for centuries. Yet, Slovenia is now an independent and prosperous country.
Under Boris: Tory -> Lib Dem = 3%
Under Hunt: Tory -> Brexit Party = 1%
What's not to like?
Man meets girl at a party.
"Hallo. What's your name?"
"Carmen. I call myself that because I like cars and men. What's yours?"
"BJ Titsandgolf"
#hunt
See you tomorrow goodnight! 😊
Cameron only won a majority in 2015 by keeping UKIP down by promising EUref2.
As John Howard said you win elections by reassuring your base first then reaching out to the centre
The fact is their Brexit supporters do have somewhere to go, Farage
The trend is fast going away from him. Give it another two weeks, and by the time the ballot papers are sent, it could be 'squeaky bum time' for him
70-75% of Conservatives favour Brexit. And they have another party to vote for. Not delivering Brexit will certainly finish the party off.
Hunt loses 1% to the Brexit Party without winning any LDs or Labour voters and loses 1% from the current Tory rating.
In a similar vein, declaring a 'climate emergency' is more likely to boost the Green party than to keep them down.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-48732672
Because while there are a great many Conservative MPs that are threatened by the Brexit Party, there are also a great many threatened by the LibDems.
https://www.opinium.co.uk
Or am I wrong?
My point, such that there is one, is that there is no simple solution for the Conservative Party. Swing "right" (especially if you were to enter into a pact with the Brexit Party), and you risk losing to the LDs in the South East and suburbia. Swing "left" (or stay where you are), and you get cannabilised by the Brexit Party.
And as another aside, the danger of entering into a pact with the Brexit Party is that you are constantly at risk of them saying "you broke our pact! you're not Brexity enough!". They have no MPs, so their downside to doing this is - errr... - nonexistant.
1) Suppose Boris tried to call a snap election. Would the turkies vote for Christmas? Or would they develop urgent dentistry appointments?
2) Are Labour MPs in Leave-ish seats feeling lucky? If Boris/Hunt/TMay brings the WA back for one last try, wouldn't they finally be tempted to rip off the bandage?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election
The Tory Membership are overwhelmingly made up of what could now be called an idealogical cult .
It’s Brexit at any cost as can be seen by the recent poll, the Union, the economy , NI imploding into more trouble is a mere irrelevance to them .
The media seem to act as if most of the membership will actually care what happens during the hustings .
It’s a month charade of holding both candidates to account.
The real fireworks won’t happen till his bluff and bluster hit the reality of actually having to deal with Brexit , instead of carping from the sidelines and playing the martyr .
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7170739/The-Remain-couple-called-police-Boris-Johnson-millionaires-daughter-partner.html
If the Conservative Party is seen to have chosen a path that to hardship, insecurity, job losses, and home reposessions, do you think the electorate will say:
(a) why didn't you take the deal, you f*cking idiots?
or
(b) well, I may have lost my home, but at least we didn't make a deal with those dastardly Europeans.
"Asked how he felt about the incident, [Imran] said: 'It's no big deal for me - we're all human'."
(c) how did these shambolic incompetents make such a pig's ear of executing on this brilliant idea?
But I think the truth is that so long as:
(a) the UK is out the EU in the next year or so
and
(b) there are at least some restrictions on FoM
Then the Conservatives will be seen to have delivered Brexit, and the electorate will be happy.
You cannot win only with your base but you certainly cannot win without them
Middle class professionals are the LD base though
"What, where did the tape come from?"
"Some lefty nutters sent it the Guardian"
"Excellent!"
"Ok,...er, what!"
"Attack the witnesses! Traduce their character! Photograph their house! Use insinuation and just plain abuse!"
"Er, aren't we supposed to be journalists?"
"Oh, listen to Mr Bloody Pulitzer there! You work for the Mail, bitch. We do celeb goss and hurting people we don't like. Now get over there and hurt people, otherwise..."
"Righty-ho, boss. One assisted suicide coming up"
Between Jan 2012 to Jan 2013 UKIP had gone from 5% to above 10%. Since the pledge was made UKIP were kept down below 15% for the rest of Parliament and into the election.
The alternative scenario where no pledge was made is unknown.
Since the 1960s, the masses of conservative voters (both Tory and Labour) have been forced between Liberal Light and Liberal. Those days are over, thanks to Mr Farage,
In 2016 Farage left the field as he knew he has nothing further to offer. UKIP all but died.
In 2017 UKIP was so rudderless and so useless that they failed to stand in a vast proportion of seats and lost their deposits in hundreds more.
In 2018 UKIP had gone from a serious party, to a laughing stock, to just plain embarrassing. Farage was setting himself up in the USA as he had nothing more happening here.
But then in late 2018 something changed. It looked like Britain might not leave the EU on time after all. The betting markets changed...
... in 2019 Brexit was delayed repeatedly. We didn't leave the EU as pledged. The EU elections had to happen despite commitments to the contrary. All of a sudden Farage was back
The goal posts are leaving the EU. Do that and Farage is gone. That is something most of us should appreciate whether you like Brexit or not.
Thankfully the liberal Tory party should return with either Boris or Hunt. Both are liberals not puritanical authoritarians.
There dies a once mighty political movement.
Here's the front page:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1142532417229660162
Survation carried out its first poll on the leadership contenders shortly after MPs concluded their voting on Thursday.
It found that when asked who would make the best Prime Minister, a total of 36 per cent of all voters backed Mr Johnson and just 28 per cent supported Mr Hunt.
But a second survey yesterday put Mr Johnson on 29 per cent and Mr Hunt in the lead on 32 per cent.
Among just Tory voters, Mr Johnson had a thumping 55 per cent on Thursday, with Mr Hunt on just 28 per cent.
By yesterday Mr Johnson was on 45 per cent and Mr Hunt was on 34 per cent – more than halving the gap between them.
When all voters were asked whether the incident had made them more or less likely to back Mr Johnson as premier, more than a third – 35 per cent – said less likely, and just nine per cent said it was more likely.
More than half of all voters (53 per cent) said Mr Johnson’s private life was relevant to his ability to be Prime Minister and three-quarters said that a person’s character was relevant to the contest.
Survation’s chief executive, Damian Lyons Lowe, said: ‘It is unusual to see a politician’s private life having this level of salience among voters.’
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7170813/Mail-Sunday-poll-voters-puts-Hunt-three-points-ahead-Boris-Johnson.html
What a sad turnaround. We have no party standing up for business and good sustainable jobs that give people opportunity. The LDs are the only ones not actively trying to make it worse for business, Tories, Labour and Greens all wanting to create various plagues to threaten our economy. (Yes there are sides to business that should be threatened and changed, I am talking about the vast majority of businesses).