politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brecon & Radnorshire: the by-election that never was?
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On the basis of that poll even if all the 19% who might change their mind went to Hunt, Boris would still win 55% to 45% for Hunt.MikeL said:Was this posted last night? From quick scan couldn't see it.
Sunday Times YouGov poll of Con members:
Johnson 74
Hunt 26
(On 16 May 2019 it was Johnson 67 Hunt 33)
80% certain of choice
19% might change mind
47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted
71% Happy if Johnson leader
19% Unhappy
41% Happy if Hunt leader
31% Unhappy
65% support pact with Brexit Party
27% oppose
8% Don't Know
Though currently Boris wins a bigger landslide over Hunt with the membership than IDS did over Clarke in 2001 or Cameron did over Davis in 20050 -
Surely some mistake, I thought Scotland was a basket case dependent on London largesse ...................
Hammond warns leader candidates that Scotland leaving the union "would deprive Britain's next leader of the money needed to end austerity".
https://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN1TK324?__twitter_impression=true0 -
Wasn't it a public ceremony?EPG said:I think it's a shameful violation of Jeremy Corbyn's private life that he was recorded at that wreath-laying. There's no direct evidence he did anything criminal there so we should all just ignore it. Politicians have a right to a private life.
But, I agree with you about Ed's bacon roll. There was no need for that to be reported at all, let alone in fantastic detail.0 -
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".isam said:
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police timenichomar said:
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?isam said:
So obvious this was a stitch up by the neighbours.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1142151102357524480FrankBooth said:Simple question. Why do Tory members trust Boris?
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=210 -
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.0 -
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.YBarddCwsc said:
He sounds more like a football manager, whose team have lost twenty games and languish at the foot of the table, saying "I don't need to go. I can sort it. I have the full backing of the Board."eristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
We read next day that the Board have fired him.1 -
Next Chancellor (or any Cabinet minister) betting. It is clear from the Standard's story that Grant Shapps is a key part of Team Boris. Unfortunately, he is not quoted.
ETA link
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/tory-leadership-race-how-boris-johnson-nailed-it-down-to-the-final-vote-a4172856.html0 -
This is interesting. I'm not sure how representative Mr Gilliland is, but if he reflects a significant strand of Unionism Sammy Wilson & Paisley Jr should be shitting their pants (something that almost everyone should celebrate).
https://twitter.com/Bangordub/status/11423102660567285770 -
If Johnson doesn't provide the ammunition no one could fire it. Simple as that.isam said:
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police timenichomar said:
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?isam said:
So obvious this was a stitch up by the neighbours.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1142151102357524480FrankBooth said:Simple question. Why do Tory members trust Boris?
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=210 -
It’s interesting how on three issues in 24 hours people have frequently been in the same camp
field was a hero
The B&R recall shouldn’t happen because the offense was trivial
And now Johnson is being set up by his neighbours it was only a lovers tiff.
I plead guilty to being in the opposing camp but it is illuminating.0 -
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.noneoftheabove said:
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?HYUFD said:
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.NickPalmer said:The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.0
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If you want to see how the broad left thinks, visit Twitter.nichomar said:It’s interesting how on three issues in 24 hours people have frequently been in the same camp
field was a hero
The B&R recall shouldn’t happen because the offense was trivial
And now Johnson is being set up by his neighbours it was only a lovers tiff.
I plead guilty to being in the opposing camp but it is illuminating.
Same is true for the right in the Mail comment section.0 -
Ed broke the golden rule of politics. NEVER be filmed eating because you always look a prat.YBarddCwsc said:
Wasn't it a public ceremony?EPG said:I think it's a shameful violation of Jeremy Corbyn's private life that he was recorded at that wreath-laying. There's no direct evidence he did anything criminal there so we should all just ignore it. Politicians have a right to a private life.
But, I agree with you about Ed's bacon roll. There was no need for that to be reported at all, let alone in fantastic detail.0 -
0
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Duplicate, deleted0 -
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating in Scotland with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.malcolmg said:Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.Roger said:
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
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And if widespread reports of electoral fraud are correct, he was right.ThomasNashe said:
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.noneoftheabove said:
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?HYUFD said:
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.NickPalmer said:The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted.Charles said:
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as wellNigelb said:
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....MikeL said:YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted
Are those the entryists?
About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.
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Call the police?DecrepitJohnL said:
If you heard your neighbour being attacked, what would you do?GIN1138 said:Morning PB,
I can report everything was quiet next door overnight but I've got my recording equipment ready just in case...
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If he wasn't that, he wouldn't be a senior politician.Nigelb said:
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted.Charles said:
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as wellNigelb said:
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....MikeL said:YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted
Are those the entryists?
About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.0 -
Record it, inform and release the recording to the requisite authorities, being the police and an unfriendly newspaper. What would you do?DecrepitJohnL said:
If you heard your neighbour being attacked, what would you do?GIN1138 said:Morning PB,
I can report everything was quiet next door overnight but I've got my recording equipment ready just in case...0 -
If you are really public-spirited like Mark Field, you personally intervene.GIN1138 said:
Call the police?DecrepitJohnL said:
If you heard your neighbour being attacked, what would you do?GIN1138 said:Morning PB,
I can report everything was quiet next door overnight but I've got my recording equipment ready just in case...
You disarm the woman with the dangerous smartphone and frogmarch her out the house.0 -
The Brexit Party are on 10% and 8% in Scotland respectively in the latter scenario of further extensionHYUFD said:
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.malcolmg said:Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
"Widespread" = spread widely on Westmonster, Breitbart and Guido comment sections??Luckyguy1983 said:
And if widespread reports of electoral fraud are correct, he was right.ThomasNashe said:
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.noneoftheabove said:
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?HYUFD said:
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.NickPalmer said:The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.Charles said:
Not at alleristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off0 -
Be as patronising as you wish but the Brexit Party failed to win Peterborough by just 600 votes with the police investigating allegations of electoral fraud there now and with the Tory vote holding up better than in the European Parliament elections after May announced her resignationThomasNashe said:
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.noneoftheabove said:
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?HYUFD said:
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.NickPalmer said:The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-0 -
In an age where the 'selfie of the year' was a girl photographing herself with someone throwing themselves off the Clifton suspension Bridge in the background the answer is all of the above plus release it online as it's happening.matt said:
Record it, inform and release the recording to the requisite authorities, being the police and an unfriendly newspaper. What would you do?DecrepitJohnL said:
If you heard your neighbour being attacked, what would you do?GIN1138 said:Morning PB,
I can report everything was quiet next door overnight but I've got my recording equipment ready just in case...1 -
Surely these neighbours have a vested interest in Boris’ success. Anything to get rid.1
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What happens if Boris did withdraw? does Hunt get it by default? Do they do a rerun with Hunt Gove? Rerun the whole thing?0
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I think they know they will lose. So better to have a figure to blame. Someone who is already discredited and so the result doesn't really tell us that Tories are about to be slaughterd in a GE.Jonathan said:
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.Charles said:
Not at alleristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off0 -
To be fair, his malfeasance is only a tiny bit of, for example, Joan Ryan's.Jonathan said:
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.Charles said:
Not at alleristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
She stood again.
Late of Labour and now of ... I've forgotten .. is she a LibDem or a Chuk?
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Hunt gets it. Based on Leadsom's withdrawal last time when she announced she was a mother.houndtang said:What happens if Boris did withdraw? does Hunt get it by default? Do they do a rerun with Hunt Gove? Rerun the whole thing?
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Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milnekinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage0 -
What did the police say they found at the scene?EPG said:
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".isam said:
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police timenichomar said:
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?isam said:
So obvious this was a stitch up by the neighbours.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1142151102357524480FrankBooth said:Simple question. Why do Tory members trust Boris?
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=21
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that0 -
HYUFD said:
HYUFD, what do you do in the days when there are no polls ?HYUFD said:
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.malcolmg said:Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
The Brexit Party are on 10% and 8% in Scotland respectively in the latter scenario of further extension0 -
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Not to mention the most right wing rag of them all...Freggles said:
"Widespread" = spread widely on Westmonster, Breitbart and Guido comment sections??Luckyguy1983 said:
And if widespread reports of electoral fraud are correct, he was right.ThomasNashe said:
It's a real service to PB. His constant authoritative quoting of the EU election results for Peterborough showed us that it was a certain gain for the Brexit Party long before we got the actual result.noneoftheabove said:
I love the precision of your predictions, given they are so certain could we perhaps get the percentages to 1 decimal place along with the exact seat numbers?HYUFD said:
What will finish the Tories off is not so much a pact with the Brexit Party but failing to deliver Brexit by October 31st regardless of whether Boris or Hunt wins.NickPalmer said:The MOST interesting finding in that poll of Tory members is that 65% want a pact with the BXP. Wow, just wow. Purely electorally, they are quite mad - it would finish them off as a national party.
Reading Parris's article (urging Hunt to go personal against Boris), an odd problem for Labour against Boris will be that Corbyn doesn't do personal attacks. Not ever, not even in private. It's not high-mindedness exactly, just that he regards them as a tiresome distraction from the serious business of politics, in the same way that he doesn't bother with attacking Southern Rail when he could be talking about the rail industry as a whole. Leaders don't need to be nasty, but Labour will need a Prescott prominent in the campaign to go fully-fledged personal - possibly Angela Rayner.
As Yougov showed yesterday, deliver Brexit by the end of October and Boris wins a majority with the Tories on 34%, Labour second on 22% and the Brexit Party falling back to 9% as does Hunt with the Tories on 30%, Labour second on 23% and the Brexit Party falling back to 30%.
Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second and the Tories and Labour tied for third. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second and Labour third
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
https://www.peterboroughtoday.co.uk/news/crime/five-electoral-fraud-allegations-at-peterborough-by-election-being-investigated-by-police-1-8964103?fbclid=IwAR1K-QtSSqJCX4WLsqlPZTcOYI3wHAoJEa5-YxrciGhM_gqXyLrzziipwVg0 -
Presumably as with Leadsom withdrawing in 2016, Hunt would win.houndtang said:What happens if Boris did withdraw? does Hunt get it by default? Do they do a rerun with Hunt Gove? Rerun the whole thing?
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It was a minuscule mistake as it has been explained in the press unless there was more and i missed it.YBarddCwsc said:
To be fair, his malfeasance is only a tiny bit of, for example, Joan Ryan's.Jonathan said:
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.Charles said:
Not at alleristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
She stood again.
Late of Labour and now of ... I've forgotten .. is she a LibDem or a Chuk?
Bad judgement. He had startup costs and office running costs. The photocopier exceeded what was left in the startup costs budget so he mocked up two invoices to spread the cost between the two budgets.
The photocopier was allowable under either budgets. He did not enrich himself, he did not try to double claim. Ordinarily something like this would have been a telling off and dont do it again. To decide to prosecute seems extraordinary.0 -
If the Tories lose it will be to PM Farage as Brexit has not been delivered.rottenborough said:
I think they know they will lose. So better to have a figure to blame. Someone who is already discredited and so the result doesn't really tell us that Tories are about to be slaughterd in a GE.Jonathan said:
What’s surprising is that the Tories want him. A little bit of fiddling is clearly ok.Charles said:
Not at alleristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off
So yes Boris needs to deliver Brexit by October 31st or call a general election on a Brexit with a Deal or No Deal ticket by then0 -
If you don't like polls don't come to PBsurbiton19 said:HYUFD said:
HYUFD, what do you do in the days when there are no polls ?HYUFD said:
Provided Brexit is delivered by October 31st the Tories in Scotland get their highest rating with Yougov under Boris on 20% to 18% with Hunt and are second behind the SNP with either leader.malcolmg said:Ruth Davidson is running out of candidates to put a curse on , she has picked every loser in every round. She will be polishing her tongue whilst praying Hunt beats Boris. Will be major brown nosing needed if Boris gets it but for sure she will claim she was misquoted and has always supported him, just ask Mundell.
If Brexit is not delivered by then they do better in Scotland with Hunt on 16% compared to 13% with Boris but are only third in Scotland behind the SNP and Scottish Labour with either leader.
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/06/21/delivering-brexit-will-do-more-boost-conservative-
The Brexit Party are on 10% and 8% in Scotland respectively in the latter scenario of further extension0 -
Boris Johnson, I am told, has eyes which when he is not performing, when he is not "on", are lifeless and dead. I use both words because they are subtly different.Dura_Ace said:When you look in Hunt's chiropteran eyes you just see nothing. Absolutely nothing. He would be better than Boris at being PM but so would Freddie Starr and he's dead.
What he (Boris) also has in spades is that certain brand of larger-than-life, bluff 'persona' which although manufactured and phony is highly effective and very useful to him. It puts a distance between himself and others, a kind of protective coating, and allows things to bounce off him as he goes on his merry way.
People such as this often turn out to have a hidden inner core that is deeply rotten. This can remain hidden for a long time - either forever or until the day when it isn't.
Jimmy Savile (also blond) was a great example of what I'm talking about. I could come up with a few others if anybody is interested, but he will do for now.0 -
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
0 -
DELETE DUPE.0
-
Yes - certain.HYUFD said:Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
It wins more seats than it loses.
Or, more accurately, it increases the chances of being largest party (or even a majority).0 -
YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
0 -
Calculation details, please.kinabalu said:
Yes - certain.HYUFD said:Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
It wins more seats than it loses.
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
The choice isn't Remain or Leave.
It is Remain or Leave or Fudge.0 -
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Faragekinabalu said:
Yes - certain.HYUFD said:Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
It wins more seats than it loses.0 -
This is a non-story.isam said:
What did the police say they found at the scene?EPG said:
"Subvert" the race by citing things that actually happened, is a bit close to the modern meaning of "fake news".isam said:
Neighbours who plaster anti Boris posters with EU stars on all over his car, then record his activity and call the police who find all is well and no case to answer, then give the story the Guardian, obviously have an agenda to try and subvert the Leadership race. Hopefully they’ll be done for wasting police timenichomar said:
How could the neighbours cause the couple to have a row? Where is the stitch up?isam said:
So obvious this was a stitch up by the neighbours.Scott_P said:
https://twitter.com/mrjamesob/status/1142151102357524480FrankBooth said:Simple question. Why do Tory members trust Boris?
https://twitter.com/samcoatessky/status/1142186051257155584?s=21
No case to answer and both people fine.
The neighbours called them to get the headline in the paper, don’t let partisanship blind you to that0 -
I saw Professor Sir John Curtice at Glasgow Queen Street station once. He didn't recognise me.Gardenwalker said:
Whole years go by without my encountering anyone famous, but I saw Dominic Grieve hanging out back the Royal Courts of Justice - and Jeremy Hunt walking briskly to Waterloo Station last night. Both looked rather pleased with themselves.rottenborough said:Oh! As I have been saying on here:
https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/11423260783101788160 -
Maybe he thinks No Deal would serve us all right.kle4 said:
His problem is hes a fanatic, who people pretend is not one because he is intelligent. Hes risked no deal repeatedly and self righteously. But like any fanatic he pursues things beyond all reason and no amount of undoubted intellect, nor even good intentions, can prevent that fanaticism undermining what he wantsXtrain said:Dominic Grieve is going to end up giving us Nigel Garage as PM.
He's far too clever for his own good.0 -
But with the wonders of the internet today, LDs in London and Brexiteers in the North will be able to tell voters that Labour are saying different things in different places.YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.0 -
100% agree.YBarddCwsc said:Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
With your last sentence.0 -
They would gain votes by pivoting. But would they make a net gain of seats?Sean_F said:YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
If they don't pivot, they can lose a lot of votes in Cambridge or London and still hold the seats very comfortably.
0 -
Certain.HYUFD said:No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Farage
0 -
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again0 -
The votes gained would come from Lib Dems and Greens. The votes lost would go to TBP. I don't see South Wales falling, but I think places like Stoke, Rotherham, Bolsover could go.HYUFD said:
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Faragekinabalu said:
Yes - certain.HYUFD said:Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
It wins more seats than it loses.0 -
But, my recollection is you are a LibDem.No_Offence_Alan said:
But with the wonders of the internet today, LDs in London and Brexiteers in the North will be able to tell voters that Labour are saying different things in different places.
Surely, I don't need to tell you about how a party can face both ways at once. And it can be a very successful strategy for a long while.
Corby only needs it to work for a short while. Nothing is forever.0 -
Compared to 2017? No.YBarddCwsc said:
They would gain votes by pivoting. But would they make a net gain of seats?Sean_F said:YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
IMHO, Labour would gain votes, net, if they pivoted, but they'd also be putting some long-standing seats in jeapord
If they don't pivot, they can lose a lot of votes in Cambridge or London and still hold the seats very comfortably.
Compared to the number they'd win if an election were held tomorrow? Yes.0 -
The Labour MP rhetoric re Leave seats isn’t matched by the polling.
In the last YouGov the Brexit Party was only taking 8% of their vote . The myth peddling by people like Lavery is based on their Lexiter view nothing to do with reality .
Labour Leavers don’t prioritize Brexit like Tory Leavers .0 -
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.HYUFD said:
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.0 -
So you’re saying the corresponding figures for Hunt show he’s not thought to be sufficiently deceitful ?Luckyguy1983 said:
If he wasn't that, he wouldn't be a senior politician.Nigelb said:
No - there isn’t much correlation between unhappy with and cannot be trusted.Charles said:
31% unhappy if Hunt leader as wellNigelb said:
‘Incredibly’ is indeed borne out by the numbers....MikeL said:YouGov poll obviously conducted before last night's revelations.
But even so, shows an incredibly strong position for Johnson....
47% Johnson can be trusted
40% Johnson cannot be trusted
52% Hunt can be trusted
31% Hunt cannot be trusted
Are those the entryists?
About a third of Boris’ support seem quite happy with his being an inveterate liar.0 -
Imagine this 'Brexit' GE. Highly polarizing. Tories and BP running on Leave, LDs running on Remain. If Labour go with fudge, on the fence, it is clear to me that they will get HAMMERED. Because the Remain vote will go to the LDs. So they quite simply MUST do the pivot.YBarddCwsc said:Calculation details, please.
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
The choice isn't Remain or Leave.
It is Remain or Leave or Fudge.
Not saying Corbyn wants to - he doesn't - or that it won't cost some seats in 'traditional areas' - it will - but they will have to do it. And the members want it, remember.0 -
Labour in Wales have already committed to a second referendum and campaign for remain0
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But a lot of those voters are lost for at least the next GE people will not trust corbyn to da as he says.kinabalu said:
Imagine this 'Brexit' GE. Highly polarizing. Tories and BP running on Leave, LDs running on Remain. If Labour go with fudge, on the fence, it is clear to me that they will get HAMMERED. Because the Remain vote will go to the LDs. So they quite simply MUST do the pivot.YBarddCwsc said:Calculation details, please.
I am not sure it does. I don't think Labour are in danger of being out-Remainered and losing seats to the LibDems.
The choice isn't Remain or Leave.
It is Remain or Leave or Fudge.
Not saying Corbyn wants to - he doesn't - or that it won't cost some seats in 'traditional areas' - it will - but they will have to do it. And the members want it, remember.0 -
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.YBarddCwsc said:
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.Roger said:
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
I don't know if she is unattached, but I chanted her name three times and now all my furniture is levitating.Theuniondivvie said:
Is Annunziata unattached? That would be a Brexit political union and a half.Pulpstar said:Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
0 -
But would that really happen?kinabalu said:
If Labour go with fudge, on the fence, it is clear to me that they will get HAMMERED. Because the Remain vote will go to the LDs. So they quite simply MUST do the pivot.
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.0 -
That a person is entiltled to do something, does not mean that choosing to do it isn't arrogant.Charles said:
Not at alleristdoof said:So an MP breaks the law and is convicted. 19% of his constituents vote to remove him and he "decides" he will stand again. How breathtakingly arrogant is that.
He’s perfectly entitled to stand again. And his voters are perfectly entitled to tell him to sod off0 -
Test post from Firefox. Ignore0
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I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.SandyRentool said:We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."0 -
We have quite active Greens demanding citizens assemblies at local authority levels for their climate emergencies. No one seems to have the courage to tell them their councils and parliaments are properly constituted citizens assemblies.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.YBarddCwsc said:
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.Roger said:
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
Of course you are quite right. These things will be populated almost entirely with people who have the 'correct' view on most things. Which is why they want them.0 -
I though they had committed to a vote to avoid a hard Brexit.marke09 said:Labour in Wales have already committed to a second referendum and campaign for remain
Still, Labour's best position is fudge.
Fudge is very sticky and opaque. So it may not be so easy to figure out Welsh Labour's position.
0 -
OK, will do.rottenborough said:Test post from Firefox. Ignore
0 -
me tookinabalu said:
OK, will do.rottenborough said:Test post from Firefox. Ignore
0 -
-
Yes, the latter would all go Boris Tory or Brexit Party if Labour back EUref2 with Dennis Skinner and Gareth Snell losing their seats and Gloria Del Piero in Ashfield and Yvette Cooper in Pontefract and Lisa Nandy in Wigan and John Cruddas in Dagenham would also be at riskSean_F said:
The votes gained would come from Lib Dems and Greens. The votes lost would go to TBP. I don't see South Wales falling, but I think places like Stoke, Rotherham, Bolsover could go.HYUFD said:
No not certain as Corbynistas will block it as will Labour MPs from Leave seats as they know while it racks up huge Labour majorities in London and the inner cities and university towns it hands Labour Leave seats and towns in the working class industrial Midlands, the North and South Wales on a plate to Boris or Faragekinabalu said:
Yes - certain.HYUFD said:Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Unite boss Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest paymaster as has Corbyn adviser Seamus Milne
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
It wins more seats than it loses.0 -
If MPs don’t wish to undergo recalls they have the option of not committing crimes.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.YBarddCwsc said:
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.Roger said:
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.0 -
Much better, but still a little harsh on the palate.kinabalu said:
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.SandyRentool said:We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
We are looking for a more inspissated texture, with perhaps a creamier flavour.
A little more butter and sugar perhaps? And even a few candies and raisins in the mix, inside rather than on top.
0 -
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Stoke, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield and beating the Brexit Party or Boris Tories, only Labour do, correctSandyRentool said:
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.HYUFD said:
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.0 -
0
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Indeed. People act like they can happen just because people dont like a politician.AlastairMeeks said:
If MPs don’t wish to undergo recalls they have the option of not committing crimes.A_View_From_Cumbria5 said:
I can't see any Recall Petition EVER failing. And it will NEVER have anything to do with personal conduct. The opponents just see it as a free go and round up the votes. They are a really bad idea. Seems to me that the previous situation was much fairer.YBarddCwsc said:
I said it was a large, rural constituency, and it was not obvious that the recall would succeed. I also said I would not have signed the petition.Roger said:
I read your tip that Brecon and Radnor wouldn't get the 10%. If you're trying to compete with me for PB's worst tipster you've still got a long way to go.
The size of the recall vote is impressive, but I think it is national circumstances rather than Davies' malfeasance that has caused it.
I can certainly tip Davies to lose if he stands again. Will the Tories be dumb enough to choose him again?
Does the choice depend on the central party for a by-election or on the Local Association?
Recall Petitions are a stunt - bad governance. Referendums were introduced for the same reason. Wise people saw the risks of referendums imposed on the UK system. It is interesting that the ones who are really furious about the result are those who most strongly demanded their grafting into the system.
We now have "serious" people advocating Citizen's Councils where the "right sort" of people confirm the views of the "right sort" of people in refusing to allow the rest to have any say. Lest you think this is acceptable these are the people who would take the vote off those who don't share their own "sensible" view.
Rory Stewart was the most dangerous man ever to apply to be PM, in my view more dangerous than Jeremy Corbyn.
Plus we have seen one that has already failed0 -
How many people will have already voted by then? Hardly seems worth it.HYUFD said:1 -
So right there is our difference of view. I think in a general election, if the Lib Dems are the only main party (in England) offering the chance to cancel Brexit, the votes of those people for whom cancelling Brexit is a priority will go in great numbers (many millions) to that party. With Leavers split between Tory and BP, this spells annihilation for Labour. Don't see how they can take that risk. There is a risk the other way, of course, but IMO it is much smaller.YBarddCwsc said:But would that really happen?
In a seat like Cambridge with a vigorous Labour Remainer as an MP, would the Labour vote get hammered? My guess is no.0 -
Handy little list to tick off if these things happen:
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/11421930619357020170 -
Can I ask - what does HYUFD stand for?HYUFD said:
To the extent the LDs and Greens have no chance winning Leave seats like Wigan, Bolsover and Dagenham and Ashfield, only Labour do, correctSandyRentool said:
We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.HYUFD said:
Yes, Corbyn will try the same strategy as last time and hedge his bets.YBarddCwsc said:
Labour will certainly lose some seats pivoting to EU Ref2. They will be in an awkward position. My guess is they won't pivot.HYUFD said:
Certain? Labour chairman Ian Lavery has blocked EUref2 as has Big Len McCluskey Labour's biggest postmaster as has Seamus Milne.kinabalu said:
Mmm.HYUFD said:Fail to deliver Brexit by the end of October and extend again or revoke and the Brexit Party becomes largest party v a Boris led Tory Party on 24% with the LDs second on 22% and the Tories and Labour tied for third on 20%. A Hunt led Tory Party meanwhile is massacred even more collapsing to 4th place and just 18% and 17 seats with the Brexit Party on 27% and 344 seats and with an overall majority of 38, the LDs second on 22% and Labour third on 19%.
But this does not factor in the (certain) Labour pivot to Ref/Remain if there is a GE with Brexit not delivered.
Labour 3rd in that case? Je ne pense so. Nein way jose.
1st.
Had Labour backed EUref2 it would likely have lost the Peterborough by election too to the Brexit Party and would lose other Labour Leave seats in the Midlands and North and Wales to Farage
My guess is the same will happen as happened last time. They will fudge.
Labour candidates in Remainer Central (London, Cambridge) will emphasise how strongly they personally are for Remain. So, the Libdems will find it really hard to take many seats from Labour, even in places with huge Remain votes, as the local MPs will already be strongly Remain.
Labour candidates in Wales and the North will emphasise how strongly they personally want to abide by the results of the referendum.
And Corby will talk about inequality.
However it runs the risk of Labour being squeezed by the LDs in Remain areas and the Brexit Party and Boris in Leave areas but he can say talking about other things while being non commital on Brexit boosted Labour in 2017 so he will do so again
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.0 -
Initially, I read The Union Divvie's comment as suggesting she should hook up with Carrie.Recidivist said:
I don't know if she is unattached, but I chanted her name three times and now all my furniture is levitating.Theuniondivvie said:
Is Annunziata unattached? That would be a Brexit political union and a half.Pulpstar said:Sounds like the crockery was being flung about by Carrie Symonds. Boris probably best of moving on to another young lady after he gets elected Tory leader.
0 -
There's yer Home Office with its wee rainbow flag asking us to celebrate Windrush Day.
Heartwarming.
https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/11423339015132119050 -
YBarddCwsc said:
Much better, but still a little harsh on the palate.
We are looking for a more inspissated texture, with perhaps a creamier flavour.
A little more butter and sugar perhaps? And even a few candies and raisins in the mix, inside rather than on top.
But unfair. That policy is not fudge. It is perfectly clear.0 -
An end to an impartial civil service? You think it's impartial now?rottenborough said:Handy little list to tick off if these things happen:
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/11421930619357020170 -
Will Hutton famously makes hundreds of predictions of which nearly all are wrong, then makes a career out of claiming to be a sage on the three he got right. His book the State We Are In was wrong on so many fronts as to be embarrassing. His comments about Japan's economic model and how we should all follow it are so bad that he should be shunned from ever making predictions again.rottenborough said:Handy little list to tick off if these things happen:
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/11421930619357020170 -
You’re watching Saturday kitchen.YBarddCwsc said:
Much better, but still a little harsh on the palate.kinabalu said:
I'm not thinking full-on Remain necessarily.SandyRentool said:We'd be better off losing seats to the LibDems, Greens and SNP than to the Tories or Brexit Party. The next election will be all about building an anti-Tory alliance - a Labour majority is wishful thinking.
Therefore going full-on Remain would be a bad strategy.
"We will seek to negotiate a better deal with the EU. One that protects jobs and workers' rights and ...
We will then put that deal to the British people in a confirmatory referendum with the other option being to Remain.
We will allow Labour members and MPs to campaign for whichever option they personally support."
We are looking for a more inspissated texture, with perhaps a creamier flavour.
A little more butter and sugar perhaps? And even a few candies and raisins in the mix, inside rather than on top.0 -
Provided that the commitment to Ref2 (with Remain as an option) is unambiguously made in the manifesto, I think the votes will come back.nichomar said:But a lot of those voters are lost for at least the next GE people will not trust corbyn to da as he says.
But what matters is what LABOUR think. If they think what I think, they will do the pivot. If they think what you think, they won't.
It's all about winning after all.0 -
please save us from woke wankery by public institutions.Theuniondivvie said:There's yer Home Office with its wee rainbow flag asking us to celebrate Windrush Day.
Heartwarming.
https://twitter.com/ukhomeoffice/status/11423339015132119050 -
Zu Asche, zu Staub.rottenborough said:Handy little list to tick off if these things happen:
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/11421930619357020170 -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UwWfE4DAyaorottenborough said:Handy little list to tick off if these things happen:
https://twitter.com/williamnhutton/status/1142193061935702017 0
