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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove moves into second place as the Tory MPs prepare to vote f

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  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151
    I miss Sir Graham! :(
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    Markets swinging heavily back to Hunt
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gove currently 30/1, Hunt 11/1.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    Betfair spoilt the result for me.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Here we go
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,736
    The BBC says Rory is currently holding a rally.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    Final two

    Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Result:

    Johnson 160
    Hunt 77
    Gove 75
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Gove out.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    By two votes
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    Fux sake.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,892
    What a waste of time, just give Boris the title now.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    One spoiled!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    Bloody close though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,851
    my predicting doesn't get any better!
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,796
    edited June 2019
    So rat boy and the racist it is.

    Is Ruth going to kybosh Boris by giving him the black spot of her backing?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,340
    Boris picked his opponent skilfully.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    The only consolation is that if Boris implodes during the hustings the Tories do have someone half way sensible to turn to.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,226
    edited June 2019
    Boris 160
    Hunt 77
    Gove 75

    So Hunt scrapes through to face Boris
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......

    Williamson likely behind this result
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Time to reform this voting system.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    So Boris only gained +3 in the final vote?

    Revenge on Gove?
  • PaulMPaulM Posts: 613
    Have to say the contributor who spotted that Williamson was managing the whole thing got it spot on.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    And another example of how the rumour mill and the betting patterns got things wrong.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    Roger said:

    Wonderful character assassination of Johnson on radio 4. "What are the Tory Party thinking about!" says Max Hastings "You wouldn't trust him with your wallet or your wife" says Hesseltine. They loathe him! I'd put your money on Gove. He wont survive a month of that

    rogerdamus strikes again :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,853
    Nigel Evans facial expression gave away the stitch up lol.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    JackW said:

    Let us pray ....

    Dear Lord we your humble and miserable servants of PB do beseech you to consider the thread writers of this site and pray that you place a pair of wicked sinners - Boris Johnson and Michael Gove into the cauldron of the Conservative party leadership.

    Let them sacrifice and eat babies in your name and ensure that in doing so the meek and mild of PB earn many pieces of silver.

    Amen.

    PB has gone to the devil .... :naughty:
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151

    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......

    Indeed. Boris has been calling the shots with this right from the start...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388

    By two votes

    Isn't that twice the number that Ken lost by in a final round. :smiley:
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Roger said:

    my predicting doesn't get any better!

    Aw, bless!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    rcs1000 said:

    Just a thought on nationalism for everyone to disagree with.

    We all feel closer to people who are like us in one way or another. Maybe they are also British or Swiss or whatever. And sometimes this is genetic: if someone looks like us, then they might share DNA with us. But this closeness extends beyond genetics.

    If a Catholic (of whatever skin colour or race) sees violence being meted out to a Catholic, they will instinctively hate the attacker and feel sympathy with the victim. One of their tribe has been attacked.

    There are other bonds. Your football team is one, your friends at the pub, your chess club, your political persuasion, your employer, profession, or even being a PB-poster. (Or even for the truly perverse, there is the tribe of EUphilia that williamglenn and Jean-Claude Juncker are members of.)

    We feel close to those with whom we can - in one way or another - identify with.

    We are all members of multiple tribes. Some tribes stretch beyond national boundaries and therefore are seen as challenges to national identity and the nation state. I might mention Muslims in much of the Western world, or Jews in Eastern Europe prior to the Second World War.

    It's OK and perfectly natural to have these competing loyalties.

    The danger comes when one of these tribes is elevated above all the others, or when one is called to renounce all other loyalties. Fundamentalist religions are like this, as is extreme nationalism.

    And here's the thing: extreme nationalism is not thinking that your country is better than others. It's thinking that the national bond is the only one that matters.

    The Internet and globalisation have weakened the national bond, because they make it easier to be members of tribes that stretch beyond national borders. And the reaction to that is Trump and, I increasingly fear, Farage.

    People just need to wake up to the fact that globalisation is likely to mean true diversity within countries rather than homogeneous nationalism. All I did was to point it out rather than pretend that everyone will just become secular Westerners. Anne Widdecombe, strict Muslims and Orthodox Jews all probably agree on issues of gender and sexuality, and if secularists genuinely want a diverse society they’ll have to accept that.

    I don’t think my country is better than others nor that the national bond is stronger. I just think mass immigration is bad for the poorest in society and rewards the richest, even though it doesn’t really affect me either way.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 41,947
    I will wait for the UN report but that looks rigged to a degree that amounts to a scandal.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    AndyJS said:

    Time to reform this voting system.

    AV from the beginning. Stops all this funny business.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297
    PaulM said:

    Have to say the contributor who spotted that Williamson was managing the whole thing got it spot on.

    That was me a few weeks ago.

    Gavin Williamson back in the cabinet. Eesh.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Andrew said:

    So Boris only gained +3 in the final vote?

    Revenge on Gove?

    Definitely.
  • StreeterStreeter Posts: 684
    We are cursed to live in interesting times.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825
    AndyJS said:

    Result:

    Johnson 160
    Hunt 77
    Gove 75

    I hereby declare, with complete lack of logic, that we can count all non Boris votes together, and therefore it is effectively Johnson 160, Hunt 152. See, very close.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    Fux sake.

    Furious at the incompetent buffoons that make up the Tory party MPs.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    kle4 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Result:

    Johnson 160
    Hunt 77
    Gove 75

    I hereby declare, with complete lack of logic, that we can count all non Boris votes together, and therefore it is effectively Johnson 160, Hunt 152. See, very close.
    Not so illogical. If Hunt and Gove could now team up....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 95,825

    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......

    He has a lot less control over relevant factors when running the country. Even of the factors he has controlled during the contest, they will be far more unreliable when it comes to actually governing. So it seems a faint hope.
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    DavidL said:

    I presume the two spoilt ballot papers were Stewart backers.

    Maybe Stewart was one himself.

    He's denied it. Wouldn't surprise me if Ken was one.
    I don't think it'd be Ken.
    Grieve and Greening would be my bet
    Philip Lee.

    My guess is that Lee and Greening are intending to leave when Boris gets chosen (or possibly and more dramatically a little earlier) and left their papers blank. I doubt any MP would take the risk of adding graffiti to a ballot paper, for risk of being found out.

    Remember Heidi seemed convinced there is a bunch of Tories ready to jump
    Greening would be a very good call to hold Putney as a LD. Lee would be unlikely to hold Bracknell.

    I could see Grieve and Lee quitting as they have already faced deselection threats
    The LibDems did make second, if distant, in Bracknell in 2010. And you could argue it’s Chelmsford dropped West of London.
    I don't know Chelmsford but I would have though it was a bit more upmarket than Bracknell.

    The LDs have never tended to do that well in the new towns, which have mainly been Con-Lab fights. Bracknell is more Brexity than Chelmsford.
    A 1% difference is neither here nor there.
    It also depends on, if he defects, who he takes with him. I still have, limited, links in the constituency so whilst I can’t see it being fertile ground given a four party split anything could happen.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    Seems good news to me. Other than having Rory in final, this probably for the best.

    Tory members can now decide whether they want a ultra unicorn seller or a mildly unicorn seller.

    I think we know the answer.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    The only consolation is that if Boris implodes during the hustings the Tories do have someone half way sensible to turn to.

    Only Gove had the ability to make him implode.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,706

    If Boris runs the country as well as he has run this contest, we will be fine......

    Williamson likely behind this result
    You might say that. He couldn’t possibly comment.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,151
    Roger said:

    my predicting doesn't get any better!

    We wouldn't have it any other way. X
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    Thank God.

    At least I do not have to vote for the apologist for racists and terrorists at the next election.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    PaulM said:

    Have to say the contributor who spotted that Williamson was managing the whole thing got it spot on.

    That was me a few weeks ago.

    Gavin Williamson back in the cabinet. Eesh.

    Williamson, Truss, god knows who else, truly the cabinet of none of the talents.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    IanB2 said:

    The only consolation is that if Boris implodes during the hustings the Tories do have someone half way sensible to turn to.

    The other consolation is that I followed @TSE in on Hunt at 100/1 then again at 80/1.

    I win a tenner if Boris wins, a grand or so if Jeremy does.

    It will be less entertaining than Gove, but perhaps mose sane in the debates.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    The only consolation is that if Boris implodes during the hustings the Tories do have someone half way sensible to turn to.

    Only Gove had the ability to make him implode.
    No. This model has a self-implode feature which can be triggered by past events resurfacing.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    As this goes to the hustings (16 of them) and TV debates, if they are not concluded by the 12th July or so the membership will have voted. We receive our votes on the 6th to 8th July and the two votes for Hunt will be returned immediately
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    Alistair said:

    IanB2 said:

    The only consolation is that if Boris implodes during the hustings the Tories do have someone half way sensible to turn to.

    Only Gove had the ability to make him implode.
    I think you’ll find he’s self-imploding. It’s just a question of before or after reaching number 10.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    As this goes to the hustings (16 of them) and TV debates, if they are not concluded by the 12th July or so the membership will have voted. We receive our votes on the 6th to 8th July and the two votes for Hunt will be returned immediately

    All the hustings are before ballot papers are sent out
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    Streeter said:

    We are cursed to live in interesting times.

    No one is cursed to be fair but they are interesting times
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,154
    AndyJS said:
    Boris got muddled and ticked the Hunt box?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 59,980
    Andrew said:

    So Boris only gained +3 in the final vote?

    Revenge on Gove?

    Heavy tactical voting there.

    Perhaps if the Gove camp had stayed beneath the radar they might have pipped it by a vote.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,473
    IanB2 said:

    PaulM said:

    Have to say the contributor who spotted that Williamson was managing the whole thing got it spot on.

    That was me a few weeks ago.

    Gavin Williamson back in the cabinet. Eesh.

    Williamson, Truss, god knows who else, truly the cabinet of none of the talents.
    Its a disgrace!

    I cannot see Williamson in the next CoE markets, is anyone running one?

    Of course spiderman didn't do very well with the WA votes!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    Seems good news to me. Other than having Rory in final, this probably for the best.

    Tory members can now decide whether they want a ultra unicorn seller or a mildly unicorn seller.

    I think we know the answer.


    If you are out shopping for unicorns, the longer the horn the better.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,297

    NEW THREAD

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:
    Boris got muddled and ticked the Hunt box?
    Don’t forget the person who unspoiled their vote!
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749
    kinabalu said:

    I will wait for the UN report but that looks rigged to a degree that amounts to a scandal.

    Why would Hunt winning be a UN matter !!!!!!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,388
    Foxy said:

    IanB2 said:

    The only consolation is that if Boris implodes during the hustings the Tories do have someone half way sensible to turn to.

    The other consolation is that I followed @TSE in on Hunt at 100/1 then again at 80/1.

    I win a tenner if Boris wins, a grand or so if Jeremy does.

    It will be less entertaining than Gove, but perhaps mose sane in the debates.
    My wallet is very happy with Hunt in final running. Very light green on Boris.

    So pretty pleased overall. Perhaps should have weighed in a bit more on Boris in the days when he was out of favour.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,344
    Artist said:

    What a waste of time, just give Boris the title now.

    That is Hunt's call. We could have a new PM by Monday......
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,773

    PaulM said:

    Have to say the contributor who spotted that Williamson was managing the whole thing got it spot on.

    That was me a few weeks ago.

    Gavin Williamson back in the cabinet. Eesh.
    Send him to Northern Ireland. What could go wrong?
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 62,749

    Artist said:

    What a waste of time, just give Boris the title now.

    That is Hunt's call. We could have a new PM by Monday......
    Not a chance
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509

    By two votes

    Isn't that twice the number that Ken lost by in a final round. :smiley:
    Yes, but I’m struggling to see everyone saying a decade or so hence ‘if only they’d picked Gove’...

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,509
    ydoethur said:

    AndyJS said:
    Boris got muddled and ticked the Hunt box?
    A misreading of the ballot paper of Newsnight presenter proportions ?
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,687
    The British people voted in 2016. Everyone said they had made a crazy choice, and so-called experts intervened to try to deny them their rights. But they proved the nay sayers wrong, and now great things are happening!

    https://news.avclub.com/groundbreaking-climate-change-discovery-made-by-sigh-1835625168
This discussion has been closed.