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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventuall

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  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,110

    Cheryl Gillan is 1922. She doesn't vote iirc.
    There were 313 votes last time so she must have a vote too.
  • theProletheProle Posts: 1,328

    Yes, and pigs might be able to fly if they had wings.

    1) by what mechanism could PM Johnson trigger an immediate GE?

    2) have you seen the polls? the SCons are not going to save Johnson as they saved May in 2017
    If Johnson wants an election, Grandpa Magic has to give him one - he's spent the last two years demanding one, he can hardly turn it down because he looks like he will lose.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    If you're good enough, you're old enough.

    If not....

    (One of my neighbours came across him out there. Not a fan.)
    So to clarify, some bloke you talk to over the fence while watering the camelia doesn’t like him
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,907
    isam said:

    Just watching part 4 of the Thatcher doc... mid term hypothetical polls had her behind in 87, and a Labour landslide on the cards...

    Have just finished watching the final part on iplayer.

    The "wets" were out in force... ;)

    Its gratifying to know that everything the likes of Heseltine, Patten and Clarke worked for their entire careers (namely the UK stuck inside a United States Of Europe) is currently in tatters...
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    rcs1000 said:

    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    And the fact it's a crazy plan.

    The best deal we have with the EU is the current deal. It's crazy we are even thinking of ditching it. Only thick xenophobic mofos think otherwise.

    Sad times...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,574
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that this statement from @Philip_Thompson (fpt) -

    “Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.”

    must rate as one of the most repulsive I’ve read here - or anywhere.

    To prefer the death or maiming of people in Ireland and here to an agreement which will come to an end when a trade agreement is signed..... well, words fail me.

    Philip Thompson is Sid and Doris. I think he's spent time in Australia. You've heard the one about the bloke walking through the outback carrying a sheep over his shoulder.

    "Are you shearing'?"

    "No mate. find your own".
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    Rory Stewart - ‘the Florence of Belgravia years’ - serialised in tomorrow’s Telegraph. He shockingly had a portrait of himself painted when he left Eton - whereas Boris didn’t take up the offer.

    What essential insights we are getting about our potential PM candidates!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/rory-stewart-florence-belgravia-years-portrait-set-apart-eton/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    There were 313 votes last time so she must have a vote too.
    She just won't publically declare.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    Freggles said:

    In that case the electorate will be more Remainer heavy!

    In which case the handful of Tory MPs left if they have not been completely wiped out will be taken over by the LDs anyway
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    Charles said:

    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
    A wife acquired from another man, she was previously married to an academic who lost out to Rory's charms in Afghanistan when they were doing academic research
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,783
    _Anazina_ said:

    So to clarify, some bloke you talk to over the fence while watering the camelia doesn’t like him
    Bit more than that, to be fair. Some bloke I have lengthy dinners with doesn't like him. He tells me why, over those lengthy dinners.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    edited June 2019
    TGOHF said:

    Can imagine Ruth Davidson would like it either.

    If Rory Stewart had suggested this idea his head would already be on a pike.

    Ruth Davidson currently cannot even beat the Brexit Party in Scotland let alone the SNP and she should thank Boris he will get a FTA polling shows most Scots far prefer to No Deal
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Cheryl Gillan is 1922. She doesn't vote iirc.
    She votes and she also counts the votes. Not many jobs where you do that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    isam said:

    Just watching part 4 of the Thatcher doc... mid term hypothetical polls had her behind in 87, and a Labour landslide on the cards...

    Not a landslide, she trailed by a few points and Kinnock cut the Tory lead to 4 points at one stage in the 1987 campaign before she got her second albeit narrower Tory landslide
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,724
    edited June 2019
    murali_s said:

    And the fact it's a crazy plan.

    The best deal we have with the EU is the current deal. It's crazy we are even thinking of ditching it. Only thick xenophobic mofos think otherwise.

    Sad times...
    What an insightful approach. The same sentiment only without the insults designed to make yourself feel superior might have seen remain sentiment rise a lot higher a lot quicker. Seriously, other than giving yourself a sense of self satisfaction what is the point of just going 'Leave is terrible'?

    I think you would get along very well with the Farages of the world, two sides of the same coin, and ones which feed off each other, secretly happy to see things polarised to extremes.

    Gets points for honesty at least though.

    Fortunately, the awfulness of leave and remain supporters has little bearing on the way a lot of people vote, so I'll join you in voting remain in any future referendum, but your bitterness and Farage like behaviour makes it less than pleasant.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019

    She just won't publically declare.
    Graham Brady, Theresa May, Charles Walker, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and Bob Blackman also didn't reveal how they voted. The latter 3 were also on the "stage" in addition to Cheryl Gillan when the result of the first ballot was announced.
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031


    I don't compromise on this principle. Democracy comes before everything else.

    Which is why you've been such a forthright voice against the UK's oligarchical media, its hollowing-out of local government, its complete absence of effective regional government, its totally unrepresentative electoral system, its resort to "advisory" referendums without any protection from dark money and foreign influence, and its decades of diminishing political engagement among the public...

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356

    On the polling, if you chose the right dates to look at it, David Cameron won a big majority in 2010, Nick Clegg won 100+ seats in 2010, Ed Miliband became PM in a hung parliament in 2015, and Theresa May won a massive landslide in 2017.

    You really do need to learn to look at least half a step beyond the polling.
    In 2015 the LDs were trounced after betraying their promise to reverse tuition fees, the Tories would similarly be trounced at the hands of the Brexit Party if they failed to deliver Brexit.

    As the SNP showed in 2015 voters who feel betrayed can easily shift from traditional loyalties
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    AndyJS said:

    Graham Brady, Theresa May, Charles Walker, Geoffrey Clifton-Brown and Bob Blackman also didn't reveal how they voted. The latter 3 were also on the "stage" when the result of the first ballot was announced.
    I wonder who Tezza did vote for? Stewart, presumably, as he likes her deal.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    I wonder who Tezza did vote for? Stewart, presumably, as he likes her deal.
    Hunt or Stewart I'd guess.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,724
    If Rory does get through tomorrow's vote (still not certain, but he seems to have a shot), I don't see any route by which he gets further, particularly given how he seems to be viewed by many Tory members. But I wonder if we'll see the sort of doing down comments that the BXP faced for 'underperforming' sky high expectations as though it diminshed what the acheived, and that a failure to get through to the final two will be presented as a big failure for Rory because he and his supporters have gotten a bit overexcited.

    Good night all.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    #SackTomWatson now trending on Twitter, looks like Labour will not be going for EUref2 then
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    Chris said:

    Then again, a week ago you'd have been telling us there was no chance of his making the final 2 ...
    He still isn't likely to make the final 2.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,716
    HYUFD said:

    #SackTomWatson now trending on Twitter, looks like Labour will not be going for EUref2 then

    If you get something trending then it becomes party policy, that's the way it works right???
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    kle4 said:

    What an insightful approach. The same sentiment only without the insults designed to make yourself feel superior might have seen remain sentiment rise a lot higher a lot quicker. Seriously, other than giving yourself a sense of self satisfaction what is the point of just going 'Leave is terrible'?

    I think you would get along very well with the Farages of the world, two sides of the same coin, and ones which feed off each other, secretly happy to see things polarised to extremes.

    Gets points for honesty at least though.

    Fortunately, the awfulness of leave and remain supporters has little bearing on the way a lot of people vote, so I'll join you in voting remain in any future referendum, but your bitterness and Farage like behaviour makes it less than pleasant.
    Yes I am bitter about politics at the moment. Lying disingenuous politicians have made this country a f*cking laughing stock.

    Brexit sucks and it stinks! To be honest, I respect Farage far more than turds like Johnson.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918

    If you get something trending then it becomes party policy, that's the way it works right???
    You jest but look at all the 'climate emergency' bollocks. Most politicians fall over themselves these days to get on Twitter's side.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,081
    edited June 2019

    You jest but look at all the 'climate emergency' bollocks. Most politicians fall over themselves these days to get on Twitter's side.
    "Climate emergency" is not bollocks my right-wing friend. Unfortunately, it is very real!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,495
    Hunt can be laid at 1.88 to make the final 2 but is 10 points bigger to win than Stewart who is 2.74 to make the cut
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,946

    She just won't publically declare.
    Incidently, why is the magic number 33? I thought it would be 32 being 10% of the Parliamentary party is 313. Surely its 31.3 (so 32)?

    Is there a rule I've missed about 10% + 1 or something?

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356

    If you get something trending then it becomes party policy, that's the way it works right???
    Well Corbynistas now control the NEC
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    murali_s said:

    "Climate emergency" is not bollocks my right-wing friend. Unfortunately, it is very real!
    Sure, sure.
  • The_TaxmanThe_Taxman Posts: 2,979
    HYUFD said:

    In 2015 the LDs were trounced after betraying their promise to reverse tuition fees, the Tories would similarly be trounced at the hands of the Brexit Party if they failed to deliver Brexit.

    As the SNP showed in 2015 voters who feel betrayed can easily shift from traditional loyalties
    You read too much into things from one scenerio to another. The LD were the protest vote party in 2010. They were then a party of govt in 2015. In 2015 the SNP new leader was in peak honeymoon whereas the Tories and Labour were pretty much unchanged from 2010. You really should not believe the rubbish in the Brexit supporting media with regards the Brexit party. They have failed to deliver the sort of results some media outlets have predicted.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488

    Incidently, why is the magic number 33? I thought it would be 32 being 10% of the Parliamentary party is 313. Surely its 31.3 (so 32)?

    Is there a rule I've missed about 10% + 1 or something?

    10% of the Parliamentary party plus the candidate's own vote.
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 10,016
    The Borisites' panic over Rory is palpable. Why? The membership chose IDS over Ken Clarke; the vast majority of them chose to humiliate their own PM by voting TPB at the euro-elections. It's unthinkable that Boris, Mr Brexit, won't get their endorsement. Why are they so spooked?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    I think Boris really wouldn't like to have Rory in the members' ballot. Maybe it's time for his team to start organising some tactical voting to keep him out. Lend a few votes to Hunt and Gove.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488
    HYUFD said:
    You can't put the American people first and the British people first, Katie, you have to choose which one you're loyal to...ah. Yes. Yes, I see your problem. Look, will somebody just lob that girl an American passport and put her out of her misery... :)
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    kle4 said:

    If Rory does get through tomorrow's vote (still not certain, but he seems to have a shot), I don't see any route by which he gets further, particularly given how he seems to be viewed by many Tory members. But I wonder if we'll see the sort of doing down comments that the BXP faced for 'underperforming' sky high expectations as though it diminshed what the acheived, and that a failure to get through to the final two will be presented as a big failure for Rory because he and his supporters have gotten a bit overexcited.

    Good night all.

    I can envisage a lot of Javid supporters going over to Rory.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,946
    viewcode said:

    10% of the Parliamentary party plus the candidate's own vote.
    Thank you, I'd done some digging and suspected it was this.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,033
    HYUFD said:

    Not a landslide, she trailed by a few points and Kinnock cut the Tory lead to 4 points at one stage in the 1987 campaign before she got her second albeit narrower Tory landslide
    Possibly the last ever Tory landslide? For those who were there, the very thought was inconceivable. It seemed like she'd just go on and on for ever.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,944
    edited June 2019
    Fascinating front page from the Telegraph, in a reversal of what you'd think might be its stance to someone who in background so extraordinarily resembles the profile of a duty-bound James Bond. This is because the subtext is : anyone not fully behind Brexit must be part of an "establishment plot".

    The billionaire tax exiles owning the press, the hedge fund donors to both Tory and Brexit causes, and their political representatives in the Commons and the Lords, are not "the establishment", of course.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918

    The Borisites' panic over Rory is palpable. Why? The membership chose IDS over Ken Clarke; the vast majority of them chose to humiliate their own PM by voting TPB at the euro-elections. It's unthinkable that Boris, Mr Brexit, won't get their endorsement. Why are they so spooked?

    Who says they are?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 55,110
    viewcode said:

    You can't put the American people first and the British people first, Katie, you have to choose which one you're loyal to...ah. Yes. Yes, I see your problem. Look, will somebody just lob that girl an American passport and put her out of her misery... :)
    Her implication seems to be that Sadiq Khan is not one of "the British people". It's just racism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    dixiedean said:

    Possibly the last ever Tory landslide? For those who were there, the very thought was inconceivable. It seemed like she'd just go on and on for ever.
    Possibly the last Tory landslide until Boris maybe, likely to be the best Tory leader since Thatcher
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,356
    viewcode said:

    You can't put the American people first and the British people first, Katie, you have to choose which one you're loyal to...ah. Yes. Yes, I see your problem. Look, will somebody just lob that girl an American passport and put her out of her misery... :)
    Though I suggest a property in Alabama or Ohio rather than San Francisco or New York would be advisable
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T

    England are playing Afghanistan tomorrow at Old Trafford. I wonder if any cricket records will be set, such as highest ever innings total if England bat first.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488
    HYUFD said:
    Leavers before 2016: Other countries are interfering in our politics! This is intolerable! We must leave the EU and make our own decisions!
    Leavers after 2016: The American President and the Italian Deputy Prime Minister want to depose the British Mayor of London! We must obey them!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Thank you, I'd done some digging and suspected it was this.
    It's a weird rule that doesn't make any sense.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,415
    murali_s said:

    "Climate emergency" is not bollocks my right-wing friend. Unfortunately, it is very real!
    It totally devalues the word "emergency"!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488

    Thank you, I'd done some digging and suspected it was this.
    It's what I've been told. I think it's right (it certainly makes sense!) but I have no primary source. Apols if it turns out to be wrong
  • MangoMango Posts: 1,031
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    England are playing Afghanistan tomorrow at Old Trafford. I wonder if any cricket records will be set, such as highest ever innings total if England bat first.

    Unlikely. Missing Roy, perhaps Morgan, perhaps even Buttler. Second use of pitch which turned first time out, so Rashid will be a handful. Hope ours is too.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    Mango said:

    Unlikely. Missing Roy, perhaps Morgan, perhaps even Buttler. Second use of pitch which turned first time out, so Rashid will be a handful. Hope ours is too.
    Sounds right. It'll be disappointing if England don't bowl Afghanistan out inside 30 overs.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,033
    HYUFD said:

    Possibly the last Tory landslide until Boris maybe, likely to be the best Tory leader since Thatcher
    In your opinion. Mind you, I was always dubious about him becoming leader. So. I reserve my cynicism for another day :).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    edited June 2019
    Rory The Tory was a spy...I thought that was already a given.

    Who the hell ends up in the places he did, doing what he has done, as a random civilian?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    edited June 2019

    twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1140739657921171456

    Unlike Jezza, it is totally believable he was a spy. Jezza on the other hand was simply a useful idiot for the enemy (and still is with his positions on Iran and Russia).
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    RobD said:

    It totally devalues the word "emergency"!
    Surely merely declaring an emergency is enough to save the planet? And then set a target to achieve something in 31 years time alongside setting up a committee to report in 12 months.

    What will the middle classes be willing to sacrifice though - and I mean sacrifice:

    giving up their spare bedrooms to a needy family living in energy inefficient housing?

    finding 40 other people to agree to stop going on holidays by plane to offset the impact of the emissions that will be created by their new born baby?

    insisting their woke daughters - inspired by their climate change strike at school - walk everywhere to visit their friends or go to their ballet classes in the pouring rain rather than expecting to be driven everywhere?

    refusing to buy Chinese made mobile phones until they decide to stop building the 150 airports planned before we even start on the Heathrow fourth runway - and yes we know they are doing loads on renewables and emit less per head (but there are 1.4 billion of them to our 65 million).

    If its an emergency - what exactly are we going to do today and not 30 years hence? Or if as rumoured we only have ten years left anyway - why not enjoy it like everyone outside western Europe, Canada and Australia intends to as far as they can?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,918
    AndyJS said:

    O/T

    England are playing Afghanistan tomorrow at Old Trafford. I wonder if any cricket records will be set, such as highest ever innings total if England bat first.

    My money's on the rain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,415
    brendan16 said:

    Surely merely declaring an emergency is enough to save the planet? And then set a target to achieve something in 31 years time alongside setting up a committee to report in 12 months.

    What will the middle classes be willing to sacrifice though - and I mean sacrifice:

    giving up their spare bedrooms to a needy family living in energy inefficient housing?

    finding 40 other people to agree to stop going on holidays by plane to offset the impact of the emissions that will be created by their new born baby?

    insisting their woke daughters - inspired by their climate change strike at school - walk everywhere to visit their friends or go to their ballet classes in the pouring rain rather than expecting to be driven everywhere?

    refusing to buy Chinese made mobile phones until they decide to stop building the 150 airports planned before we even start on the Heathrow fourth runway - and yes we know they are doing loads on renewables and emit less per head (but there are 1.4 billion of them to our 65 million).

    If its an emergency - what exactly are we going to do today and not 30 years hence? Or if as rumoured we only have ten years left anyway - why not enjoy it like everyone outside western Europe, Canada and Australia intends to as far as they can?
    I suppose with the NHS in the state it is, waiting 31 years in the emergency room is quite common. :smiley:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,707
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    ITV has banned all-male comedy writing teams.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48668652
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,707
    brendan16 said:

    refusing to buy Chinese made mobile phones until they decide to stop building the 150 airports planned

    That doesn't make sense.

    Chinese phones may (or may not) have lower energy input costs than Korean ones. Whether the Chinese government is spending on Gross Capital Formation is irrelevant.
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that this statement from @Philip_Thompson (fpt) -

    “Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.”

    must rate as one of the most repulsive I’ve read here - or anywhere.

    To prefer the death or maiming of people in Ireland and here to an agreement which will come to an end when a trade agreement is signed..... well, words fail me.

    There's currently no shortage of people in this country prepared to say (or at least imply (or at least I can't see another way of interpreting what they're saying)) that increased stabbings are preferable to allowing Stop & Search.
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    rcs1000 said:

    That doesn't make sense.

    Chinese phones may (or may not) have lower energy input costs than Korean ones. Whether the Chinese government is spending on Gross Capital Formation is irrelevant.
    I think it was more about making a tokenist stand against the actions of the Chinese government?

    Still glad you are happy with the plan to commandeer the spare rooms of the better off to house poorer families so we can use energy more efficiently. Starting no doubt with the family homes of public school educated double barrelled limate change protestors. Surely they need to suffer too to save the planet?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    ITV has banned all-male comedy writing teams.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48668652

    Galton & Simpson, Clement and La Frenais, John Sullivan, Ben Elton, Richard Curtis, Jimmy Perry & David Croft, Armando Iannucci, Steve Coogan, Rob Brydon, Antony Jay, Jonathan Lynn, Rob Grant, Doug Naylor, Chris Morris...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,707
    brendan16 said:

    I think it was more about making a tokenist stand against the actions of the Chinese government?

    Still glad you are happy with the plan to commandeer the spare rooms of the better off to house poorer families so we can use energy more efficiently. Starting no doubt with the family homes of public school educated double barrelled limate change protestors. Surely they need to suffer too to save the planet?
    I was merely pointing out that there was at least one logical fallacy in there :lol:
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,707
    viewcode said:

    Galton & Simpson, Clement and La Frenais, John Sullivan, Ben Elton, Richard Curtis, Jimmy Perry & David Croft, Armando Iannucci, Steve Coogan, Rob Brydon, Antony Jay, Jonathan Lynn, Rob Grant, Doug Naylor, Chris Morris...
    Is one person a team?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Is Hunt more likely than Gove to lose support to Stewart?
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    rcs1000 said:

    I was merely pointing out that there was at least one logical fallacy in there :lol:
    We don't have time for logical fallacies - the UK parliament and Leo Varadkar have declared an emergency! Its been six weeks since the former and what has been done - its all very worrying?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488
    rcs1000 said:

    Is one person a team?
    Thinks.

    Technically...yes?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,873
    edited June 2019
    AndyJS said:

    ITV has banned all-male comedy writing teams.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/entertainment-arts-48668652

    "Ms Schuster also runs events where she says she "forces" her producers to have 10-minute conversations with three female writers."

    That won't be awkward...I am speaking to you because, looks at watch, thinks...9 min 45s left...
  • EndillionEndillion Posts: 4,976
    viewcode said:

    Thinks.

    Technically...yes?
    There's no 1 in team.

    Or something.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    viewcode said:

    Galton & Simpson, Clement and La Frenais, John Sullivan, Ben Elton, Richard Curtis, Jimmy Perry & David Croft, Armando Iannucci, Steve Coogan, Rob Brydon, Antony Jay, Jonathan Lynn, Rob Grant, Doug Naylor, Chris Morris...
    Weren't they BBC writers?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    If I had to guess how the votes of the 4 candidates who are not standing in the second round will be redistributed tomorrow, this is what I'd forecast:

    Hancock (20 votes): Stewart 13, Johnson 3, Javid 2, Hunt 1, Gove 1.
    Leadsom (11 votes): Johnson 6, Raab 3, Gove 1, Javid 1.
    Harper (10 votes): Johnson 5, Stewart 2, Hunt 1, Gove 1, Javid 1.
    McVey (9 votes): Johnson 5, Raab 2, Gove 1, Javid 1.

    Changes:

    Johnson +19
    Stewart +15
    Raab + 5
    Javid +5
    Gove +4
    Hunt +2
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488

    Weren't they BBC writers?
    Yes. Now consider all the fine ITV male writers, such as, um. Hold on, I know this. Er...

    (Seriously. I got as far as Tony Warren, now I'm stuck. I am getting senile in my old age... :) )
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,488
    viewcode said:

    Yes. Now consider all the fine ITV male writers, such as, um. Hold on, I know this. Er...

    (Seriously. I got as far as Tony Warren, now I'm stuck. I am getting senile in my old age... :) )
    Brian Clemens!
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,773
    HYUFD said:

    On the latest YouGov the Brexit Party would win more seats than the Tories and the Brexit Party and Tories and DUP would have a majority in the Commons combined so it would be PM Farage actually
    Per Betfair, the Brexit Party is currently odds on to win 0-9 seats.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2019
    The closest thing to free money, 5% return with England v Afghanistan tomorrow.
    https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket/market/1.159349837

    Weather is dry:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/6691246
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    viewcode said:

    Yes. Now consider all the fine ITV male writers, such as, um. Hold on, I know this. Er...

    (Seriously. I got as far as Tony Warren, now I'm stuck. I am getting senile in my old age... :) )
    To be fair, from the article, it does seem like they are talking mainly about the teams who write jokes for programmes that are not sitcoms.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    murali_s said:

    And the fact it's a crazy plan.

    The best deal we have with the EU is the current deal. It's crazy we are even thinking of ditching it. Only thick xenophobic mofos think otherwise.

    Sad times...
    You clearly have an idea fixe

    However, for the record:

    1. The current deal with the E.U. no longer exists. According to your metric the “best” outcome we can end up with is E.U. membership plus ignored referendum. That’s worse than the position before the referendum.

    2. The current E.U. deal is not static - there is unending pressure towards ever closer union. For me this was probably the key factor in voting Leave. Today’s arrangement is barely adequate and will get worse as time goes on
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    brendan16 said:

    Rory Stewart - ‘the Florence of Belgravia years’ - serialised in tomorrow’s Telegraph. He shockingly had a portrait of himself painted when he left Eton - whereas Boris didn’t take up the offer.

    What essential insights we are getting about our potential PM candidates!

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/17/rory-stewart-florence-belgravia-years-portrait-set-apart-eton/

    What’s shocking about getting a portrait painted?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    HYUFD said:

    A wife acquired from another man, she was previously married to an academic who lost out to Rory's charms in Afghanistan when they were doing academic research
    Your implied misogyny is extraordinary

    Women are not “acquired”.

    I don’t know his relationship history but they appear to be happily married snd that’s what matters
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,504
    HYUFD said:

    Not a landslide, she trailed by a few points and Kinnock cut the Tory lead to 4 points at one stage in the 1987 campaign before she got her second albeit narrower Tory landslide
    I remember the 87 GE, it was my first political bet. I won a pint off my brother having guessed the size of the Tory majority. Labour were never in the running to win, the question was merely how much they could reduce the Tory majority by. At the time Maggie looked to be in control forever. Within a few years she was defenestrated by her own party.
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