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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The favourite always wins the Tory leadership race – eventuall

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  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Hunt appears to have the most appalling judgement. How could he not distance himself from Trump's comment/retweet(?) about Khan's Londonistan? Even the supposed hard right Raab seems to have taken a firm line against.

    Criticise Khan as mayor by all means. Criticise his record on crime. But implying he's a secret Islamist trying to Islamise London. Come off it.

    He didn't imply that. Read the actual exchange (on the Guardian live blog, for example).
    Hunt didn't imply it but the tweet clearly did. And if Hunt can't see that he's too thick to be PM.
    He didn't support the tweet, in fact he explicitly said he disagreed with it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Tory members want someone who believes in Brexit now, hence why Boris leads with them comfortably with Raab second. I cannot see Tory members picking a Remainer for some time to come

    Yes, not till November, by which time it will be too late.
    Most Tory members would rather defect to the Brexit Party if we are still in the EU in November I suspect than vote for a Remainer
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    edited June 2019
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    It's heartening isn't it? I wonder how the fragrant Virginia is doing?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Has anyone asked Rory if it comes down to a choice between no deal or revoke which he'll go for?

    I believe he said that if the EU refused an extension thereby leaving us no choice he would reluctant support no deal

    I think I got enough conditionals and caveats in his statement
    It's a clever answer from Rory. Who seriously thinks the EU wouldn't offer PM Stewart an A50 extension?
    He’s a clever lad
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    He has if he wins an immediate GE and gets a majority
  • anothernickanothernick Posts: 3,591
    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris will have to go for immediate general election
    At which he will storm to victory by hiding from his opponents and refusing to answer questions from journalists. It's such a sure fire winner it's amazing no one has tried iit before. Or perhaps not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,751

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    So Farage isn't going to stand aside and deliver his votes to Boris Johnson?

    That's astonishing news.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Foxy said:

    Drutt said:

    Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.

    An LD insider chum of mine raises her eyebrows at Davey being 5/1.

    Also too long: NZ to win WC at 8/1.
    Davey is a little long, but we do need to remember that odds are for likelihood of winning not the margin of victory.

    The big question is how the surge of new members vote.
    At least the new members are not likely to be UKIP insurgents :wink:
    It would be interesting to know the demography and geography of the post 2017 members. I guess that they are geographically closer to Davey, but demographically closer to Swinson, and quite green.

  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Winding up Ulster Unionists is always terrific fun. They get very angry, very quickly.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    And he hasn't got the time. Implementing either No Deal or a new deal will require a lot of work including a lot of parliamentary time, which just ain't there.

    This is such an obvious point that it beggars belief that Boris and much of the Conservative Party haven't noticed it. It's also amazing that journalists and broadcasters - who claim to hold politicians 'to account' but mostly think this means interrupting them before they've finished their sentences - haven't pushed Boris heavily on it.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Phukov said:

    kjohnw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    kjohnw said:

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris will have to go for immediate general election
    He will not become PM is my bet. He cannot command the confidence.
    He will be PM . TM will not block him
    I would have thought the question would be whether two or three Conservatives (Grieve, Greening, AN Other) resigned the whip in response to his victory.

    If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
    If Tory MPs resigned the whip it would bring about a collapse of the government and a general election in which Boris would be party leader and probably wins majority , the purge of wets will do the party good
    You can't win a majority in the UK parliament on a narrow ideological platform. If you think you can, your name is Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my five rials.
    Clement Attlee and Margaret Thatcher both won landslide victories on clear ideological platforms
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683
    I wonder if the Tory membership will start resenting Boris for his obvious sense of entitlement and will vote for Rory just to piss Boris off.
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    kjohnw said:

    Scott_P said:
    Boris will have to go for immediate general election
    At which he will storm to victory by hiding from his opponents and refusing to answer questions from journalists. It's such a sure fire winner it's amazing no one has tried iit before. Or perhaps not.
    He has to get past the remain dominated Tory MPs first, he’s keeping his powder dry , not a bad move given all the enemies that currently surround him
  • brendan16brendan16 Posts: 2,315
    edited June 2019
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Times should know better!

    Foreign monarchs are always Stranger Knights rather than Companion Knights!
    Is there a reason why their feathers are flat or angled but the Duke of Cambridge’s are fully erect? Or is that just the wind?

    What an odd ceremony - do the Queen or Charles get anything in return? A summer invite to the Med or a bunch of tulips?

    I am aware Felipe and Charles are cousins via their Greek mother and father but are they related to the Dutch monarchy too?
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    I wonder if the Tory membership will start resenting Boris for his obvious sense of entitlement and will vote for Rory just to piss Boris off.

    QTWTAIN
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
    We won't end up with PM Farage, but you do need to ask yourself why Farage is setting up this attack line now. He's not stupid.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    And he hasn't got the time. Implementing either No Deal or a new deal will require a lot of work including a lot of parliamentary time, which just ain't there.

    This is such an obvious point that it beggars belief that Boris and much of the Conservative Party haven't noticed it. It's also amazing that journalists and broadcasters - who claim to hold politicians 'to account' but mostly think this means interrupting them before they've finished their sentences - haven't pushed Boris heavily on it.
    We often lament the poor quality of politicians, but the pathetic state of journalism in the UK is as least as serious.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Portillo idea on This Week (last week)
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    If you can believe in Brexit, you can and likely will believe in Johnson.
    Perhaps, but not this Leaver.

    Johnson is an idiot. I don't know if he will deliver Brexit, but I do know he'll be a bloody disaster as Prime Minister. I only hope its short, preferably less than a few months.

    And if he does deliver Brexit, it'll be a disasterous one. The man is a walking disaster.

    What have we done to derseve him? (No comments about voting Leave please - there are better ways to Leave than the way Boris will pick if he has to. He'd probably DOW France for the Lolz)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    Jeff Daniels.

    Though granted, Johnson does dress like the Big Lebowski.
  • DruttDrutt Posts: 1,124

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Scott_P said:
    There's something endearing about how badly all his clothes fit him.
    I'd be surprised if it wasn't proper, £4k a pop badly fitting.
    His tailoring does rather smack of a chap who had a suit made while he was younger and doing heavy lifting reasonably often, made a note of his sizes and still refuses to countenance that he's not quite that chest size anymore. (see also: my own wardrobe)
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    I think Robert Smithson suggested this exact course of action on here months ago
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Foxy said:

    Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.

    Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.

    Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.
    I would disagree that LDS are wishy washy, but you do have a point. I think that the SNP may have a bit of a revival in the next GE, probably at the expense of SLAB and SCON. I suspect that Swinson would hold her seat, but would probably have to fight hard for it, limiting her national campaigning. It is another factor inclining me to Davey, who is near many target seats. On the other hand LD's have a long tradition of able Scottish Leaders.

    Glad people found my piece interesting, having had the chance of reading the responses.
    Swinson has a tough job holding on to her seat, but ought to be assisted by the declining SLab and SCon support. They’ll likely break more to SLD than SNP in that area.

    On the other hand, if the Greens don’t put up a candidate again it’ll help the SNP.

    She has a fascinating seat: it has been held by all four parties in recent times.

    The most vulnerable SLD seat is actually Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, not East Dunbartonshire.

    By the way, I’m not sure that I’d describe the strong SNP showing as a ”revival”. We have been in government for twelve years now, and won well over half the seats in the country at GE2017.
    I was thinking of revival in that the losses of seats to SCON and SLAB in 2017 are likely to be at least partially reversed, at least in Westminster. I am not so sure about Holyrood.
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    Chris said:

    Chris said:

    Scott_P said:
    Well, it's pretty revealing if Johnson feels he has to do that.
    It is as bad as Gordon Brown's attempt to stifle any competition. Boris is a weak man whose complete lack of skills as PM will lead to a rapid removal from office.
    I imagine he is rather worried about the debate by now.
    Boris is similar to Trump in one respect: he hates hostile questioning. He's at his worst when facing a stern questioner, so format will be everything here. If the "debate" is a gentle game of badminton on the beach, batting abstract questions around, he'll be fine.
    But if the host or the other candidates come after him, you'll see that petulant face, the middle-distance gaze as he endures a scolding and possibly a barely-suppressed eye-roll.
    It will be magnificent if the others can get under his skin, because it'll show the truth about Boris: he thinks scrutiny is beneath him. It distracts him and he can't perform. And what is Boris if he can't perform? Is there any substance beneath cackling static?
  • geoffwgeoffw Posts: 8,722
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Kate Hoey on Newsnight advocating no-deal.

    Kate Hoey is a bit of a fan of autarky.
    Autarky means ourselves alone. I doubt if Kate is a fan of that.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    The House voted not to block No Deal last week and if Boris does remove the temporary CU for GB the ERG would be on board
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    It's heartening isn't it? I wonder how the fragrant Virginia is doing?
    Very well I understand from some of her colleagues
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    It's heartening isn't it? I wonder how the fragrant Virginia is doing?
    Well, it would seem. I met her at an event a year or so ago.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914

    Would being a spy for MI6 be such a bad thing for Stewart. Might Tory party members not look favourably upon that?

    Funny how we take it for granted that Tory members are a different species from normal people. Understandable but funny
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Times should know better!

    Foreign monarchs are always Stranger Knights rather than Companion Knights!
    But they get to wear the same very sensible head wear, which is the main thing.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    brendan16 said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:
    The Times should know better!

    Foreign monarchs are always Stranger Knights rather than Companion Knights!
    Is there a reason why their feathers are flat or angled but the Duke of Cambridge’s are fully erect? Or is that just the wind?

    What an odd ceremony - do the Queen or Charles get anything in return? A summer invite to the Med or a bunch of tulips?

    I am aware Felipe and Charles are cousins via their Greek mother and father but are they related to the Dutch monarchy too?
    William has probably been smart enough to put wire in...

    I assume that there are equivalent baubles to hand out in other countries
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,490
    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
    Is there some bizarre Russian doll of mad Brexiteers comedians. First Boris fails. Wonder what happens when reality catches up with a Farage administration and he has to delay. Would Roy Chubby Brown he called up to give it a go?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory members want someone who believes in Brexit now, hence why Boris leads with them comfortably with Raab second. I cannot see Tory members picking a Remainer for some time to come

    Yes, not till November, by which time it will be too late.
    Most Tory members would rather defect to the Brexit Party if we are still in the EU in November I suspect than vote for a Remainer
    In that case the electorate will be more Remainer heavy!

  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132

    FF43 said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Boris Johnson isn't the firmest Brexiteer on the ballot paper, he's not even the firmest brexiteer in a room full of remainers.

    Boris Johnson believes in Boris Johnson and will believe in whatever he thinks it will take to get elected.

    Whether apocryphal or true, the story that he wrote two columns for the telegraph, one for leave and one for remain, on the eve of declaring, speaks volumes.

    People say Farage is a spiv and a huckster, but at least you know what he stands for.

    If you can believe in Brexit, you can and likely will believe in Johnson.
    Perhaps, but not this Leaver.

    Johnson is an idiot. I don't know if he will deliver Brexit, but I do know he'll be a bloody disaster as Prime Minister. I only hope its short, preferably less than a few months.

    And if he does deliver Brexit, it'll be a disasterous one. The man is a walking disaster.

    What have we done to derseve him? (No comments about voting Leave please - there are better ways to Leave than the way Boris will pick if he has to. He'd probably DOW France for the Lolz)
    Sorry, but he's exactly the same phenomenon as Leave. Attention over thought, promises over track record, bluster over discussion. Leave, Trump, Farage and Boris are the perfect embodiments of Generation Clickbait.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    kjohnw said:

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    He has if he wins an immediate GE and gets a majority
    Yes, and pigs might be able to fly if they had wings.

    1) by what mechanism could PM Johnson trigger an immediate GE?

    2) have you seen the polls? the SCons are not going to save Johnson as they saved May in 2017
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
    Is there some bizarre Russian doll of mad Brexiteers comedians. First Boris fails. Wonder what happens when reality catches up with a Farage administration and he has to delay. Would Roy Chubby Brown he called up to give it a go?
    Robert Kilroy Silk makes his comeback, promising to "shaft" the EU.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    edited June 2019

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    And he hasn't got the time. Implementing either No Deal or a new deal will require a lot of work including a lot of parliamentary time, which just ain't there.

    This is such an obvious point that it beggars belief that Boris and much of the Conservative Party haven't noticed it. It's also amazing that journalists and broadcasters - who claim to hold politicians 'to account' but mostly think this means interrupting them before they've finished their sentences - haven't pushed Boris heavily on it.
    Indeed the summer recess alone takes out seven weeks: 20 July to 5 September
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2019
    _Anazina_ said:

    Indeed the summer recess alone takes out seven weeks: 20 July to 5 September

    Not to mention that late July and all of August aren't great for finding anyone to talk to in Brussels, and the fact that if you did find anyone they'd point out that the Commission is winding down and you'll have to wait until the new Commission and President are in place in November before discussing any changes to anything.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Freggles said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Tory members want someone who believes in Brexit now, hence why Boris leads with them comfortably with Raab second. I cannot see Tory members picking a Remainer for some time to come

    Yes, not till November, by which time it will be too late.
    Most Tory members would rather defect to the Brexit Party if we are still in the EU in November I suspect than vote for a Remainer
    In that case the electorate will be more Remainer heavy!

    HY hadn’t really thought that through, had he?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    _Anazina_ said:

    HYUFD said:

    Evening all,

    Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.

    So much this.

    Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.

    In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
    Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
    And he hasn't got the time. Implementing either No Deal or a new deal will require a lot of work including a lot of parliamentary time, which just ain't there.

    This is such an obvious point that it beggars belief that Boris and much of the Conservative Party haven't noticed it. It's also amazing that journalists and broadcasters - who claim to hold politicians 'to account' but mostly think this means interrupting them before they've finished their sentences - haven't pushed Boris heavily on it.
    Indeed the summer recess alone takes out seven weeks: 20 July to 5 September
    It is just one of the many misfortunes of this country at the moment that the lead interviewer of these charlatans is Marr and not Walden.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    Yes, 🎩 tip. Noted above.

    Why would the ERG block it though? What would they care?
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    So apparently according to the DT Stewart could have been a spy for MI6 !

    Which if it was the case makes him a very interesting character . Not sure this would harm his chances . Certainly it’s a dangerous job and puts Johnson in the shade .

    What exactly has the spineless buffoon done that comes anywhere close to that .

    Of course we’ll never know about the spy story as Stewart would never be able to admit to it anyway .
  • PhukovPhukov Posts: 132
    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Genius until you think about it for more than 2 seconds.
    Why do the NI voters back it? Why do the ERG back it when the DUP don't? If the DUP see a wedge driven between themselves and the NI electorate, what stops them bringing Boris down?

    It is literally the most idiotic thing I've ever heard, in a crowded field from many talented participants.

    Brexit, eh? As soon as you scrape through one barrel, there's another. It's barrels all the way down.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Kate Hoey on Newsnight advocating no-deal.

    Kate Hoey is a bit of a fan of autarky.
    Autarky means ourselves alone. I doubt if Kate is a fan of that.
    I was choiceful in my words. She has says we need to produce more of what we consume and to rely less on other countries.

    Now, maybe autarky is a little harsh. But it certainly looks like she isn't a fan of international trade.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    2 will no longer be a problem as it enables a GB FTA and removes the temporary Customs Union for GB.

    1 still will be but Boris can correctly tell them that if they want to stop the backstop convince NI voters to do so in a referendum
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    3. MPs editing the bill to replace “NI” with “U.K.” and “backstop” with “Brexit”
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502
    My feelings towards Bozo might improve if he threw the DUP nutjobs under a bus .
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,683

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
    We won't end up with PM Farage, but you do need to ask yourself why Farage is setting up this attack line now. He's not stupid.
    Boris and his people must have reasoned that they need to secure the leadership first. Thereafter Boris will be able to waffle his way out of any prior commitments. Boris is widely indulged, so it’s not the silliest of tactics,
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited June 2019
    Jonathan said:

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
    Is there some bizarre Russian doll of mad Brexiteers comedians. First Boris fails. Wonder what happens when reality catches up with a Farage administration and he has to delay. Would Roy Chubby Brown he called up to give it a go?
    Farage could No Deal, but only if his clown-car show wins a majority.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146

    _Anazina_ said:

    Indeed the summer recess alone takes out seven weeks: 20 July to 5 September

    Not to mention that late July and all of August aren't great for finding anyone to talk to in Brussels, and the fact that if you did find anyone they'd point out that the Commission is winding down and you'll have to wait until the new Commission and President are in place in November before discussing any changes to anything.
    May got her deal. That is the deal. These Brexit chaps really are slow on the uptake.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    3. MPs editing the bill to replace “NI” with “U.K.” and “backstop” with “Brexit”
    What a good idea (of yours). Let's hope you get the credit for it!
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    nico67 said:

    So apparently according to the DT Stewart could have been a spy for MI6 !

    Which if it was the case makes him a very interesting character . Not sure this would harm his chances . Certainly it’s a dangerous job and puts Johnson in the shade .

    What exactly has the spineless buffoon done that comes anywhere close to that .

    Of course we’ll never know about the spy story as Stewart would never be able to admit to it anyway .

    He doesn't need to answer, just to turn up in a gunmetal DB5 for his next walkabout B)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    Charles said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    3. MPs editing the bill to replace “NI” with “U.K.” and “backstop” with “Brexit”
    :lol:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Kate Hoey on Newsnight advocating no-deal.

    Kate Hoey is a bit of a fan of autarky.
    Autarky means ourselves alone. I doubt if Kate is a fan of that.
    I was choiceful in my words. She has says we need to produce more of what we consume and to rely less on other countries.

    Now, maybe autarky is a little harsh. But it certainly looks like she isn't a fan of international trade.
    If you were feeling charitable you’d interpret that as “reduce the trade deficit”

    Which I assume you’d be a fan of?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810

    _Anazina_ said:

    Indeed the summer recess alone takes out seven weeks: 20 July to 5 September

    Not to mention that late July and all of August aren't great for finding anyone to talk to in Brussels, and the fact that if you did find anyone they'd point out that the Commission is winding down and you'll have to wait until the new Commission and President are in place in November before discussing any changes to anything.
    Indeed, scouring the gites of the Loire Valley and Provence in 30c heat might be an unwelcome way of bringing forward the necessary conversations.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
    Those who knew him in Iraq don't speak highly of his efforts there.......
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237
    HYUFD said:

    Boris can correctly tell them that if they want to stop the backstop convince NI voters to do so in a referendum

    Dear Boris,

    Good luck in the upcoming General Election.

    Your former friends in the DUP,

    xxx
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    _Anazina_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    Yes, 🎩 tip. Noted above.

    Why would the ERG block it though? What would they care?
    Er apart from giving the EU £39 Bn and Ulster for nowt in return ?


    It’s a turd sandwich idea without the bread.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,237

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
    Those who knew him in Iraq don't speak highly of his efforts there.......
    Some people who knew him in Iraq don't speak highly of his efforts there.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Phukov said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Genius until you think about it for more than 2 seconds.
    Why do the NI voters back it? Why do the ERG back it when the DUP don't? If the DUP see a wedge driven between themselves and the NI electorate, what stops them bringing Boris down?

    It is literally the most idiotic thing I've ever heard, in a crowded field from many talented participants.

    Brexit, eh? As soon as you scrape through one barrel, there's another. It's barrels all the way down.
    Oh it is hardly the most idiotic thing that has been suggested, if still politically very difficult. However, if it did seen the NI voters would back it it would expose the hypocritical rantings of the DUP, with their constant whinging and victim complex, to claim to speak for NI in its entirety with their truculent views.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
    Those who knew him in Iraq don't speak highly of his efforts there.......
    To be fair he was barely 30!
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Phukov said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Genius until you think about it for more than 2 seconds.
    Why do the NI voters back it? Why do the ERG back it when the DUP don't? If the DUP see a wedge driven between themselves and the NI electorate, what stops them bringing Boris down?

    It is literally the most idiotic thing I've ever heard, in a crowded field from many talented participants.

    Brexit, eh? As soon as you scrape through one barrel, there's another. It's barrels all the way down.
    Shhh...

    There’s nothing funnier than watching folk who think it’s easy to solve Irish political problems.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can correctly tell them that if they want to stop the backstop convince NI voters to do so in a referendum

    Dear Boris,

    Good luck in the upcoming General Election.

    Your former friends in the DUP,

    xxx
    Fake news!

    It’s three kisses for the Orthodox, two for Catholics and one for Protestants.

    The DUP don’t do kisses
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Boris and his people must have reasoned that they need to secure the leadership first. Thereafter Boris will be able to waffle his way out of any prior commitments. Boris is widely indulged, so it’s not the silliest of tactics,

    I simply don't understand it. Surely Boris of all people should be able to come up with some amusing flim-flam to leave himself some wriggle room on the date.

    He's fond of comparing himself to Churchill. He should have reflected that Churchill never set himself up for failure by promising victory by a specific date.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Can imagine Ruth Davidson would like it either.

    If Rory Stewart had suggested this idea his head would already be on a pike.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    HYUFD said:

    Completely wrong.

    Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.



    Nigel Farage is several steps ahead of you (and of Boris):

    https://twitter.com/Nigel_Farage/status/1140238304664850434
    I do agree with you that if Boris does not deliver Brexit by October 31st we may end up with PM Farage instead to finally deliver what the 52% voted for
    We won't end up with PM Farage, but you do need to ask yourself why Farage is setting up this attack line now. He's not stupid.
    On the latest YouGov the Brexit Party would win more seats than the Tories and the Brexit Party and Tories and DUP would have a majority in the Commons combined so it would be PM Farage actually
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,878
    geoffw said:

    rcs1000 said:

    geoffw said:

    Kate Hoey on Newsnight advocating no-deal.

    Kate Hoey is a bit of a fan of autarky.
    Autarky means ourselves alone. I doubt if Kate is a fan of that.
    Thanks for that. I always wondered what it meant within the Tremere (VtM player Revised edition from the 1990s).
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,318
    Can I just say that this statement from @Philip_Thompson (fpt) -

    “Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.”

    must rate as one of the most repulsive I’ve read here - or anywhere.

    To prefer the death or maiming of people in Ireland and here to an agreement which will come to an end when a trade agreement is signed..... well, words fail me.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nico67 said:

    So apparently according to the DT Stewart could have been a spy for MI6 !

    Which if it was the case makes him a very interesting character . Not sure this would harm his chances . Certainly it’s a dangerous job and puts Johnson in the shade .

    What exactly has the spineless buffoon done that comes anywhere close to that .

    Of course we’ll never know about the spy story as Stewart would never be able to admit to it anyway .

    I agree. Some clown at DT seems to think the MI6 story will damage Rory at expense of Boris.

    Run this past me again? I just don't get it?

    It's John Buchan vs Billy Bunter.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    A mere whippersnapper at 74 compared to a few others (Dennis Skinner most notably). Amazing how some of these MPs stick around for decades, almost anonymously in some cases, albeit with moments of high profile for some. Peter Bottomley, Geoffrey Robinson, Barry Sheerman, Jeremy Corbyn, who would have thought they'd still be here after all this time?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    TGOHF said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG
    Yes, 🎩 tip. Noted above.

    Why would the ERG block it though? What would they care?
    Er apart from giving the EU £39 Bn and Ulster for nowt in return ?


    It’s a turd sandwich idea without the bread.
    To be fair, from the financial perspective such a deal would be in profit part way through the 4th year.
    kle4 said:

    Phukov said:

    HYUFD said:

    Freggles said:

    https://twitter.com/tgeducation/status/1140359775181574144?s=20


    NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?

    Genius move if true.

    Enables a FTA for GB and gets the ERG on board and removes the temporary CU for GB true but ensures NI voters likely back the backstop so the DUP can't blame him and the way is clear for the WA to get through even on the current Commons or with a Tory majority after a snap general election
    Genius until you think about it for more than 2 seconds.
    Why do the NI voters back it? Why do the ERG back it when the DUP don't? If the DUP see a wedge driven between themselves and the NI electorate, what stops them bringing Boris down?

    It is literally the most idiotic thing I've ever heard, in a crowded field from many talented participants.

    Brexit, eh? As soon as you scrape through one barrel, there's another. It's barrels all the way down.
    Oh it is hardly the most idiotic thing that has been suggested, if still politically very difficult. However, if it did seen the NI voters would back it it would expose the hypocritical rantings of the DUP, with their constant whinging and victim complex, to claim to speak for NI in its entirety with their truculent views.
    If NI can have a referendum on the Deal, why can the rest of the UK not. I suspect that NI would want Remain on the ballot paper too, and that might even get DUP support.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2019
    HYUFD said:

    On the latest YouGov the Brexit Party would win more seats than the Tories and the Brexit Party and Tories and DUP would have a majority in the Commons combined so it would be PM Farage actually

    On the polling, if you chose the right dates to look at it, David Cameron won a big majority in 2010, Nick Clegg won 100+ seats in 2010, Ed Miliband became PM in a hung parliament in 2015, and Theresa May won a massive landslide in 2017.

    You really do need to learn to look at least half a step beyond the polling.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that this statement from @Philip_Thompson (fpt) -

    “Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.”

    must rate as one of the most repulsive I’ve read here - or anywhere.

    To prefer the death or maiming of people in Ireland and here to an agreement which will come to an end when a trade agreement is signed..... well, words fail me.

    Brexit brings out the mad dog lurking in the English psyche.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,936
    Just catching up. Is Bond, err, Rory PM yet?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
    Those who knew him in Iraq don't speak highly of his efforts there.......
    To be fair he was barely 30!
    If you're good enough, you're old enough.

    If not....

    (One of my neighbours came across him out there. Not a fan.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Boris and his people must have reasoned that they need to secure the leadership first. Thereafter Boris will be able to waffle his way out of any prior commitments. Boris is widely indulged, so it’s not the silliest of tactics,

    I simply don't understand it. Surely Boris of all people should be able to come up with some amusing flim-flam to leave himself some wriggle room on the date.

    He's fond of comparing himself to Churchill. He should have reflected that Churchill never set himself up for failure by promising victory by a specific date.
    I suspect his reflection on Churchill goes no further than 'He made some good speeches, I can do good speeches, can't I? Yay, I am modern day Churchill'.

    As for why no wiggle room, it is so obvious a thing to do that even someone as purportedly lazy as Boris will have not done so deliberately, the one thing he is not lazy about is going after the leadership. He's either gambling that he is so bloody popular that he can withstand a u-turn on the subject, which is damn risky, or he is looking no further than securing the leadership and like May is content to win the day by storing up trouble for his promise later, or he thinks that if he says he will do it, no ifs ands or buts, and is stopped by Parliament he will avoid the blame and the BXP voters will not punish him at a GE.
  • El_CapitanoEl_Capitano Posts: 4,239
    Charles said:

    Scott_P said:

    So the choice is Jeff Bridges' stunt double from Dumb & Dumber, or James Bond?

    If that’s the choice, number 1 all the way please. I'm not a Boris fan but I think I have a pretty good idea of his motivations. That's immensely preferable to me than a member of our friendly neighbourhood spook community. Hope it's not true.
    Come on!

    Scottish gentry (minor)
    Scion of an ancient albeit scruffy House
    Eton educated
    Former governor of Iraqi province
    Friends with President of Afghanistan
    Charming and beautiful wife

    It could almost be a character from an Ian Fleming novel

    What’s not to like?
    I thought you were talking about JackW for a minute.
  • nico67nico67 Posts: 4,502

    nico67 said:

    So apparently according to the DT Stewart could have been a spy for MI6 !

    Which if it was the case makes him a very interesting character . Not sure this would harm his chances . Certainly it’s a dangerous job and puts Johnson in the shade .

    What exactly has the spineless buffoon done that comes anywhere close to that .

    Of course we’ll never know about the spy story as Stewart would never be able to admit to it anyway .

    I agree. Some clown at DT seems to think the MI6 story will damage Rory at expense of Boris.

    Run this past me again? I just don't get it?

    It's John Buchan vs Billy Bunter.
    Yes it’s bizarre . Risking your life for Queen and country as a spy is apparently now a big no no !

    But Bozo hiding away in a bunker is so brave ! It’s a shame they didn’t print the story a few days ago , it certainly would have been a big boost for Stewart .
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    edited June 2019
    Has Boris blown it, with his Telegraph chum MI6 story?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    Has Boris blow it, with his Telegraph chum MI6 story?

    No.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Boris can correctly tell them that if they want to stop the backstop convince NI voters to do so in a referendum

    Dear Boris,

    Good luck in the upcoming General Election.

    Your former friends in the DUP,

    xxx
    Dear DUP,

    Sod off, you are so thick it will have to be me that saves the Union and Brexit.


    Looking forward to my general election landslide thanks for asking.

    Yours,

    Boris
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    nico67 said:

    nico67 said:

    So apparently according to the DT Stewart could have been a spy for MI6 !

    Which if it was the case makes him a very interesting character . Not sure this would harm his chances . Certainly it’s a dangerous job and puts Johnson in the shade .

    What exactly has the spineless buffoon done that comes anywhere close to that .

    Of course we’ll never know about the spy story as Stewart would never be able to admit to it anyway .

    I agree. Some clown at DT seems to think the MI6 story will damage Rory at expense of Boris.

    Run this past me again? I just don't get it?

    It's John Buchan vs Billy Bunter.
    Yes it’s bizarre . Risking your life for Queen and country as a spy is apparently now a big no no !

    But Bozo hiding away in a bunker is so brave ! It’s a shame they didn’t print the story a few days ago , it certainly would have been a big boost for Stewart .
    It smacks to me of the Trump playbook. Trump == I got out of Vietnam with opt-outs; McCain == he's no hero, he got caught in Vietnam.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    Has Boris blow it, with his Telegraph chum MI6 story?

    No he’s waiting for the BBC debate to blow it.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    edited June 2019
    Foxy said:


    If NI can have a referendum on the Deal, why can the rest of the UK not. I suspect that NI would want Remain on the ballot paper too, and that might even get DUP support.

    It's a fair question, but it's a question of if sufficient people in the parliament say they could accept the backstop if the voters of NI back it, then they would approve that referendum (which would actually be a confirmatory ballot unlike the false one with a remain option) even if they would not back an UK wide one.

    Now, I don't think they would go for that, and personally I think we should go for remain now, but there's nothing inherently illogical in saying 'We, the parliament, are agreed we are happy to leave on these terms, so long as the area specifically affected on point Y are happy with point Y'.

    Presently, a referendum is still having difficulty getting through because it is so clearly a ploy to remain, it's why despite being a worse solution a GE is preferred, because some think no deal backing parties would win. Even if they are wrong, they are more confident of winning that than a referendum. A partial referendum on a technical point might be able to pass muster more easily, providing pretext for more people to back the deal. Though as I say, I don't think it would work.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Just watching part 4 of the Thatcher doc... mid term hypothetical polls had her behind in 87, and a Labour landslide on the cards...
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    A mere whippersnapper at 74 compared to a few others (Dennis Skinner most notably). Amazing how some of these MPs stick around for decades, almost anonymously in some cases, albeit with moments of high profile for some. Peter Bottomley, Geoffrey Robinson, Barry Sheerman, Jeremy Corbyn, who would have thought they'd still be here after all this time?
    Cheryl Gillan is 1922. She doesn't vote iirc.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that this statement from @Philip_Thompson (fpt) -

    “Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.”

    must rate as one of the most repulsive I’ve read here - or anywhere.

    To prefer the death or maiming of people in Ireland and here to an agreement which will come to an end when a trade agreement is signed..... well, words fail me.

    I missed that - a new low for PB
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    He's been in the House continuously since a by-election in Woolwich West on 26th June 1975. The result helped to eliminate Harold Wilson's 3 seat majority.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    rcs1000 said:


    Wow.

    Someone from Boris's team must have been reading this board, because right back at the beginning of this process, I suggested a referendum in Northern Ireland.

    There are only two problems with this excellent idea (of mine):

    1. The DUP
    2. The ERG

    It's probably a better thing to run on in a snap election than No Deal, May-Barnier or The EU Will Totally Blink If I Give Them One Of My Hard Stares.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited June 2019
    Cyclefree said:

    Can I just say that this statement from @Philip_Thompson (fpt) -

    “Let me be abundantly clear, it is preferable to me that the Troubles restart than the backstop is agreed, though I don't want or expect either.”

    must rate as one of the most repulsive I’ve read here - or anywhere.

    To prefer the death or maiming of people in Ireland and here to an agreement which will come to an end when a trade agreement is signed..... well, words fail me.

    @Cyclefree you and clearly others here don't agree with me but for me the backstop is 100% unacceptable. It is quite literally a cessation of democracy. People will be subject to laws and regulations they have no representation in shaping and no way of unilaterally terminating. That is never OK under any circumstances.

    I don't want violence but I value democracy more than the threat of violence.

    I don't compromise on this principle. Democracy comes before everything else.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    Has Boris blown it, with his Telegraph chum MI6 story?

    Of course not. I'm sure we've all seens contests where someone is so far ahead, at least among their own voters, that nothing that could happen could derail them. People want to buy what Johnson is selling, they are desperate for it, and they will find a way to justify doing so no matter what comes up, at least in sufficient numbers to win. Counter candidates can manage the same thing to a lesser degree of course, if someone is the chosen anti-candidate they remarkably are seen to possess none of the traditional negative traits of the political classes. Unless they win and then disappoint.
  • justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527

    kle4 said:

    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:

    Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
    Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
    Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
    Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
    Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.

    Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.

    You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
    Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
    Blimey! I had no idea he was still around!
    A mere whippersnapper at 74 compared to a few others (Dennis Skinner most notably). Amazing how some of these MPs stick around for decades, almost anonymously in some cases, albeit with moments of high profile for some. Peter Bottomley, Geoffrey Robinson, Barry Sheerman, Jeremy Corbyn, who would have thought they'd still be here after all this time?
    Cheryl Gillan is 1922. She doesn't vote iirc.
    Yes she does! All 313 Tory MPs voted in Round 1.
This discussion has been closed.