Watching the Thatdher program - Tebbit really is a bitter old git.
Had his wife not been disabled as a result of the Brighton bomb, Tebbit would have run as the true heir to Thatcher in the 1990 leadership race rather than Major
And would likely have lost.
I have a great deal of sympathy for what he suffered in the aftermath of the bombing, but his bitterness seems general.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.
Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.
I would disagree that LDS are wishy washy, but you do have a point. I think that the SNP may have a bit of a revival in the next GE, probably at the expense of SLAB and SCON. I suspect that Swinson would hold her seat, but would probably have to fight hard for it, limiting her national campaigning. It is another factor inclining me to Davey, who is near many target seats. On the other hand LD's have a long tradition of able Scottish Leaders.
Glad people found my piece interesting, having had the chance of reading the responses.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
May voted for Stewart last time according to the MoS (yes, I know)...
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
May voted for Stewart last time according to the MoS (yes, I know)...
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.
Boris is doing the BBC debate tomorrow evening
That's a bit presumptive isn't it? There's no guarantee he'll get the votes.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
May voted for Stewart last time according to the MoS (yes, I know)...
Rory isn’t going to win anyway even if he makes the final 2. All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Of course by 6pm tomorrow Rory Rory tell us a story may be out of the race - and the Twitterati will be devastated! Like Robert Francis O Rourke he shone so brightly and then suddenly turned so pale.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
If Rory gets through tomorrow Boris needs to lend some of his votes to ensure Rory comes last on Wednesday
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
Boris is just not being tackled on anything because he wont do the events. Just as May was not found out in the crucible of a proper leadership election.
They will rue the day.
Boris is doing the BBC debate tomorrow evening
That's a bit presumptive isn't it? There's no guarantee he'll get the votes.
I imagine you could get some very good odds on a bet that he doesn't.
The danger after last few days and not doing recent debates is if he goes backwards tomorrow. That could set a very damaging narrative.
Boris will have to go for immediate general election
He will not become PM is my bet. He cannot command the confidence.
He will be PM . TM will not block him
I would have thought the question would be whether two or three Conservatives (Grieve, Greening, AN Other) resigned the whip in response to his victory.
If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
I think you can probably add Mike Freer to that list.
Rory isn’t going to win anyway even if he makes the final 2. All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Of course by 6pm tomorrow Rory Rory tell us a story may be out of the race - and the Twitterati will be heartbroken.
OTOH Boris beating Rory after a long argument on Brexit could give him the mandate that he needs.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
I think you can probably add Mike Freer to that list.
He was supporting Hunt last time apparently. Has he tweeted about supporting Rory or made a statement elsewhere?
Stewart's team privately believe they are two votes short at the moment.
Peston reporting that would indicate Rory is safe. Peston rarely gets it right
Well this is just an inane PB meme. He has been mostly spot on about Brexit delay timings for a start. He sticks his neck out more than Laura K, granted, but he’s a journalist, not a conduit.
I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few erstwhile supporters of Gove, Hunt, Javid and even Johnson, from the Remainer wing, quietly switch to Stewart tomorrow.
Rory isn’t going to win anyway even if he makes the final 2. All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Of course by 6pm tomorrow Rory Rory tell us a story may be out of the race - and the Twitterati will be heartbroken.
OTOH Boris beating Rory after a long argument on Brexit could give him the mandate that he needs.
Either way, Rory is setting himself up nicely to succeed Johnson when the latter's premiership inevitably crashes and burns after intersecting with reality.
Hunt appears to have the most appalling judgement. How could he not distance himself from Trump's comment/retweet(?) about Khan's Londonistan? Even the supposed hard right Raab seems to have taken a firm line against.
Criticise Khan as mayor by all means. Criticise his record on crime. But implying he's a secret Islamist trying to Islamise London. Come off it.
Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
An LD insider chum of mine raises her eyebrows at Davey being 5/1.
All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Surely that's only an issue if there are actual flaws in Boris's Brexit position.
Rory isn’t going to win anyway even if he makes the final 2. All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Of course by 6pm tomorrow Rory Rory tell us a story may be out of the race - and the Twitterati will be heartbroken.
OTOH Boris beating Rory after a long argument on Brexit could give him the mandate that he needs.
Either way, Rory is setting himself up nicely to succeed Johnson when the latter's premiership inevitably crashes and burns after intersecting with reality.
Well he is certainly now the leader of the internal opposition. He has been audacious and from almost nowhere (unless you are PBer!)
All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Surely that's only an issue if there are actual flaws in Boris's Brexit position.
Hancock not only comes across as sly and untrustworthy. He is also pretty poor at political strategy. He would have been better keeping his powder dry instead of belatedly trying to jump on the Boris bandwagon only to miss and fall on his face!
Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.
She should have gone after 10 years in 1989, one thing Blair did get right was resigning in 2007, a decade after he came to power
Of course, he was given a big shove even for that.
He really should have gone in 2006.
Blair could have forced a leadership challenge from Brown as Thatcher forced one from Heseltine but he did not and went once he saw his time was up and as a result avoided the economic crash which hit Brown
Boris will have to go for immediate general election
He will not become PM is my bet. He cannot command the confidence.
He will be PM . TM will not block him
I would have thought the question would be whether two or three Conservatives (Grieve, Greening, AN Other) resigned the whip in response to his victory.
If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
If Tory MPs resigned the whip it would bring about a collapse of the government and a general election in which Boris would be party leader and probably wins majority , the purge of wets will do the party good
Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
An LD insider chum of mine raises her eyebrows at Davey being 5/1.
Also too long: NZ to win WC at 8/1.
Davey is a little long, but we do need to remember that odds are for likelihood of winning not the margin of victory.
The big question is how the surge of new members vote.
Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.
She should have gone after 10 years in 1989, one thing Blair did get right was resigning in 2007, a decade after he came to power
Blair did plenty of things right. Not least helping drive the expansion of the EU eastwards, stabilising those former Eastern-bloc countries. When you look at how well they've fared in comparison to the other former Soviet states, you realise how utterly unworkable the idea of a fully independent nation state really is.
In fact, I'm struggling to count many successful examples in world history. Without membership of EEC-type organisations, or being the controlling force in an empire, nation states have a woeful record of peace, stability and prosperity.
Blair saw this at a time when many on both sides of the house couldn't understand Europe because they had a romantic and hopelessly unrealistic vision of nationhood.
It's one of the tragedies of recent political decades, that a man of such vision hollowed out his own reputation so thoroughly in the crucible of Iraq, and left this country without its most effective and forward-seeing visionary. You can't praise Blair these days because "but Iraq". But when you look around nowadays, all you have are fat grubby scrappers like Francois, race-baiting drunks like Farage, shrill pedants, shambolic clowns, antisemites, islamophones, and fucking fireplace salesmen. The pity of it all is that some people reading this who believe in democracy and capitalism will enjoy sticking the boot in to Blair in response to this post ("but Iraq!") and scoffing at the idea that he helped save Eastern Europe by exporting good institutions, and ignoring the incalculable benefit we have derived from that increased prosperity on our doorstop.
I've never defended Tony Blair before, and I personally haven't forgiven him for Iraq. But I just saw a glimpse something there and had to share it. I expect ridicule for it, but fuck it. It has to be said.
Rory isn’t going to win anyway even if he makes the final 2. All he is going to do is undermine Boris and point out the flaws in his Brexit position before he takes office. Whether that’s a positive or not depends on your political persuasion.
Of course by 6pm tomorrow Rory Rory tell us a story may be out of the race - and the Twitterati will be heartbroken.
OTOH Boris beating Rory after a long argument on Brexit could give him the mandate that he needs.
Either way, Rory is setting himself up nicely to succeed Johnson when the latter's premiership inevitably crashes and burns after intersecting with reality.
Tory members want someone who believes in Brexit now, hence why Boris leads with them comfortably with Raab second. I cannot see Tory members picking a Remainer for some time to come
Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
An LD insider chum of mine raises her eyebrows at Davey being 5/1.
Also too long: NZ to win WC at 8/1.
Davey is a little long, but we do need to remember that odds are for likelihood of winning not the margin of victory.
The big question is how the surge of new members vote.
At least the new members are not likely to be UKIP insurgents
Hunt appears to have the most appalling judgement. How could he not distance himself from Trump's comment/retweet(?) about Khan's Londonistan? Even the supposed hard right Raab seems to have taken a firm line against.
Criticise Khan as mayor by all means. Criticise his record on crime. But implying he's a secret Islamist trying to Islamise London. Come off it.
He didn't imply that. Read the actual exchange (on the Guardian live blog, for example).
Tory members want someone who believes in Brexit now, hence why Boris leads with them comfortably with Raab second. I cannot see Tory members picking a Remainer for some time to come
Yes, not till November, by which time it will be too late.
I've been through the list of undeclared Tory MPs and there are 25 that might consider voting for Rory Stewart IMO:
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan, Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond, Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee, Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman, Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
You also need to consider switchers from Hunt.
Yes, someone like Peter Bottomley would be quite likely to switch from Hunt to Stewart.
Well, it's pretty revealing if Johnson feels he has to do that.
It is as bad as Gordon Brown's attempt to stifle any competition. Boris is a weak man whose complete lack of skills as PM will lead to a rapid removal from office.
Just read Dr Fox's take on the Lib Dem hustings. Disappointing to see that as the Lib Dems re-emerge into the spotlight they appear to be determined to sink into wishy washy platitudes hardly becoming of the times we are in.
Many English Remain voters will vote for them anyway. They haven’t got a choice.
Scottish and Welsh Remain voters do have a non-wishy washy alternative, and will largely take it.
I would disagree that LDS are wishy washy, but you do have a point. I think that the SNP may have a bit of a revival in the next GE, probably at the expense of SLAB and SCON. I suspect that Swinson would hold her seat, but would probably have to fight hard for it, limiting her national campaigning. It is another factor inclining me to Davey, who is near many target seats. On the other hand LD's have a long tradition of able Scottish Leaders.
Glad people found my piece interesting, having had the chance of reading the responses.
Swinson has a tough job holding on to her seat, but ought to be assisted by the declining SLab and SCon support. They’ll likely break more to SLD than SNP in that area.
On the other hand, if the Greens don’t put up a candidate again it’ll help the SNP.
She has a fascinating seat: it has been held by all four parties in recent times.
The most vulnerable SLD seat is actually Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, not East Dunbartonshire.
By the way, I’m not sure that I’d describe the strong SNP showing as a ”revival”. We have been in government for twelve years now, and won well over half the seats in the country at GE2017.
Boris will have to go for immediate general election
He will not become PM is my bet. He cannot command the confidence.
He will be PM . TM will not block him
I would have thought the question would be whether two or three Conservatives (Grieve, Greening, AN Other) resigned the whip in response to his victory.
If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
If Tory MPs resigned the whip it would bring about a collapse of the government and a general election in which Boris would be party leader and probably wins majority , the purge of wets will do the party good
The word "probably" is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
So much this.
Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.
In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
Recollection of the 1990 Tory leadership battle on BBC2 now in the last episode of 'Thstcher: A Very British Revolution'
It's an oft repeated, half true cliche that Thatch was a bit mad by the end, and on the evidence here she definitely was.
She should have gone after 10 years in 1989, one thing Blair did get right was resigning in 2007, a decade after he came to power
Blair did plenty of things right. Not least helping drive the expansion of the EU eastwards, stabilising those former Eastern-bloc countries. When you look at how well they've fared in comparison to the other former Soviet states, you realise how utterly unworkable the idea of a fully independent nation state really is.
In fact, I'm struggling to count many successful examples in world history. Without membership of EEC-type organisations, or being the controlling force in an empire, nation states have a woeful record of peace, stability and prosperity.
Blair saw this at a time when many on both sides of the house couldn't understand Europe because they had a romantic and hopelessly unrealistic vision of nationhood.
It's one of the tragedies of recent political decades, that a man of such vision hollowed out his own reputation so thoroughly in the crucible of Iraq, and left this country without its most effective and forward-seeing visionary. You can't praise Blair these days because "but Iraq". But when you look around nowadays, all you have are fat grubby scrappers like Francois, race-baiting drunks like Farage, shrill pedants, shambolic clowns, antisemites, islamophones, and fucking fireplace salesmen. The pity of it all is that some people reading this who believe in democracy and capitalism will enjoy sticking the boot in to Blair in response to this post ("but Iraq!") and scoffing at the idea that he helped save Eastern Europe by exporting good institutions, and ignoring the incalculable benefit we have derived from that increased prosperity on our doorstop.
I've never defended Tony Blair before, and I personally haven't forgiven him for Iraq. But I just saw a glimpse something there and had to share it. I expect ridicule for it, but fuck it. It has to be said.
Iraq is also now in a much better state than it was 5 years ago
The Telegraph front page is intriguing. Are they really saying that risking your life for national security now makes you one of the hated ‘liberal elite’? Or is the paper shifting? I can’t believe Boris’s 100,000 grand a year for a haphazard article each week has enamoured him much to a staff cut to the bone.
Boris will have to go for immediate general election
He will not become PM is my bet. He cannot command the confidence.
He will be PM . TM will not block him
I would have thought the question would be whether two or three Conservatives (Grieve, Greening, AN Other) resigned the whip in response to his victory.
If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
If Tory MPs resigned the whip it would bring about a collapse of the government and a general election in which Boris would be party leader and probably wins majority , the purge of wets will do the party good
You can't win a majority in the UK parliament on a narrow ideological platform. If you think you can, your name is Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my five rials.
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
So much this.
Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.
In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
Completely wrong.
Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.
Tory members want someone who believes in Brexit now, hence why Boris leads with them comfortably with Raab second. I cannot see Tory members picking a Remainer for some time to come
A quick glance at the latest European polling news - starting in Lithuania which has an election next year. As in many other countries, a "Green" party is doing well but don't be confused - the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, while it sits with the Green group in the EU Parliament, is more a traditional centre-right agrarian party.
Currently they are on 29%, just a point between the Homeland Union which sits with the EPP group.
The Social Democrats and the Labour Party are the next two groups - the former sits with the European Socialists and Democrats but the latter with the ALDE group so make of that what you will.
Off to Estonia next and as we know there were elections in March which produced a new coalition led by the Centre Party, the Conservative People's Party and Pro Patria, another conservative group. This coalition shut out the party which won the most votes and seats, the liberal Reform Party which won 29% of the vote and 34 of the 101 seats in the Riijikogu (as we all know).
Current polling suggests Reform are well ahead on 36% with the combined Government parties on 39% and the Social Democrats making ground.
The latest INSA poll in Germany has the Greens and the CDU/CSU tied on 25% with Linke making a little headway.
In Hungary, Orban's Fidesz Party remains dominant with the latest poll putting it at 53% but with Jobbik falling away, new groups such as the Democratic Coalition have moved into a poor second.
Finally to Croatia which elects to the Sabor. The main parties are the centre-right HDZ and the centre-left Social Democrats and they are locked together at 27% each but that's 12 points down from the combined share at the 2016 election. The smaller parties gaining ground include the right-wing Independents for Croatia and a party set up by a Zagreb lawyer called National List Mislav Kolokusic which is currently polling at 6.2% which would put it into the aforementioned Sabor.
Even more finally to Poland where the governing Law & Justice is on 49% and looks set for a comfortable re-election in the November elections to the Sejm. The main opposition is Donald Tusk's Civic Platform but that trails on 25%
Well, it's pretty revealing if Johnson feels he has to do that.
It is as bad as Gordon Brown's attempt to stifle any competition. Boris is a weak man whose complete lack of skills as PM will lead to a rapid removal from office.
I imagine he is rather worried about the debate by now.
Boris will have to go for immediate general election
He will not become PM is my bet. He cannot command the confidence.
He will be PM . TM will not block him
I would have thought the question would be whether two or three Conservatives (Grieve, Greening, AN Other) resigned the whip in response to his victory.
If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
If Tory MPs resigned the whip it would bring about a collapse of the government and a general election in which Boris would be party leader and probably wins majority , the purge of wets will do the party good
You can't win a majority in the UK parliament on a narrow ideological platform. If you think you can, your name is Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my five rials.
Polling seems to suggest that Boris would get a majority against corbyn
Hunt appears to have the most appalling judgement. How could he not distance himself from Trump's comment/retweet(?) about Khan's Londonistan? Even the supposed hard right Raab seems to have taken a firm line against.
Criticise Khan as mayor by all means. Criticise his record on crime. But implying he's a secret Islamist trying to Islamise London. Come off it.
He didn't imply that. Read the actual exchange (on the Guardian live blog, for example).
Hunt didn't imply it but the tweet clearly did. And if Hunt can't see that he's too thick to be PM.
Seems to me that Tories are sleep walking into another May-style PM f-ck up.
So much this.
Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.
In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
Completely wrong.
Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit
Boris cannot commit to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal. He just hasn’t got the votes in the House.
Comments
I have a great deal of sympathy for what he suffered in the aftermath of the bombing, but his bitterness seems general.
He really should have gone in 2006.
Guto Bebb, Tracey Crouch, Jonathan Djanogly, George Freeman, Cheryl Gillan,
Damian Green, Justine Greening, Sam Gyimah, Philip Hammond, Stephen Hammond,
Richard Harrington, George Hollingbery, Nick Hurd, Alister Jack, Phillip Lee,
Jeremy Lefroy, Theresa May, Paul Maynard, Sarah Newton, Jesse Norman,
Neil O'Brien, Daniel Poulter, Jeremy Quin, Julian Smith, William Wragg.
Those 25 would take him from 14 to 39 votes.
Glad people found my piece interesting, having had the chance of reading the responses.
If MPs vote for Johnson, they'll be voting for an early Christmas.
Can't see it myself.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7145499/Theresa-threatens-block-Brexit-No-Deal-voting-Remainer-Rory-Stewart-Tory-contest.html
They clearly see Rory as Boris's main threat.
Nothing new to report but Rory might be a "007"!
Of course by 6pm tomorrow Rory Rory tell us a story may be out of the race - and the Twitterati will be devastated! Like Robert Francis O Rourke he shone so brightly and then suddenly turned so pale.
The danger after last few days and not doing recent debates is if he goes backwards tomorrow. That could set a very damaging narrative.
Also suggests that they have got no actual dirt on him.
If they did, then Mrs May would have great difficulty advising HM that Johnson could command the confidence of the House.
I wouldn't be surprised if quite a few erstwhile supporters of Gove, Hunt, Javid and even Johnson, from the Remainer wing, quietly switch to Stewart tomorrow.
Criticise Khan as mayor by all means. Criticise his record on crime. But implying he's a secret Islamist trying to Islamise London. Come off it.
Also too long: NZ to win WC at 8/1.
I think I got enough conditionals and caveats in his statement
The big question is how the surge of new members vote.
In fact, I'm struggling to count many successful examples in world history. Without membership of EEC-type organisations, or being the controlling force in an empire, nation states have a woeful record of peace, stability and prosperity.
Blair saw this at a time when many on both sides of the house couldn't understand Europe because they had a romantic and hopelessly unrealistic vision of nationhood.
It's one of the tragedies of recent political decades, that a man of such vision hollowed out his own reputation so thoroughly in the crucible of Iraq, and left this country without its most effective and forward-seeing visionary. You can't praise Blair these days because "but Iraq". But when you look around nowadays, all you have are fat grubby scrappers like Francois, race-baiting drunks like Farage, shrill pedants, shambolic clowns, antisemites, islamophones, and fucking fireplace salesmen. The pity of it all is that some people reading this who believe in democracy and capitalism will enjoy sticking the boot in to Blair in response to this post ("but Iraq!") and scoffing at the idea that he helped save Eastern Europe by exporting good institutions, and ignoring the incalculable benefit we have derived from that increased prosperity on our doorstop.
I've never defended Tony Blair before, and I personally haven't forgiven him for Iraq. But I just saw a glimpse something there and had to share it. I expect ridicule for it, but fuck it. It has to be said.
On the other hand, if the Greens don’t put up a candidate again it’ll help the SNP.
She has a fascinating seat: it has been held by all four parties in recent times.
The most vulnerable SLD seat is actually Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross, not East Dunbartonshire.
By the way, I’m not sure that I’d describe the strong SNP showing as a ”revival”. We have been in government for twelve years now, and won well over half the seats in the country at GE2017.
Con party establishment airbrushing the last 3 years from memory - who on earth can support this stupidity ?
Boris is taking exactly the same approach to Brexit as May did: promise an indeterminate end-state that will magically keep everyone happy, and believe you can get there by force of personality and your negotiating skill.
In theory a leadership election should be the chance for the members to pull the party back from the brink. In practice, they appear to be gleefully cheering it over the cliff.
Foreign monarchs are always Stranger Knights rather than Companion Knights!
NI backstop with a referendum in NI to ratify is surely the best option, but is there time given Boris would need to win a GE ?
Boris is actually committing to deliver Brexit Deal or No Deal, it is Rory who is actually continuity May by threatening to extend forever rather than actually deliver Brexit, hence why May voted for him. Hunt and Gove are not much different either.
A quick glance at the latest European polling news - starting in Lithuania which has an election next year. As in many other countries, a "Green" party is doing well but don't be confused - the Lithuanian Farmers and Greens Union, while it sits with the Green group in the EU Parliament, is more a traditional centre-right agrarian party.
Currently they are on 29%, just a point between the Homeland Union which sits with the EPP group.
The Social Democrats and the Labour Party are the next two groups - the former sits with the European Socialists and Democrats but the latter with the ALDE group so make of that what you will.
Off to Estonia next and as we know there were elections in March which produced a new coalition led by the Centre Party, the Conservative People's Party and Pro Patria, another conservative group. This coalition shut out the party which won the most votes and seats, the liberal Reform Party which won 29% of the vote and 34 of the 101 seats in the Riijikogu (as we all know).
Current polling suggests Reform are well ahead on 36% with the combined Government parties on 39% and the Social Democrats making ground.
The latest INSA poll in Germany has the Greens and the CDU/CSU tied on 25% with Linke making a little headway.
In Hungary, Orban's Fidesz Party remains dominant with the latest poll putting it at 53% but with Jobbik falling away, new groups such as the Democratic Coalition have moved into a poor second.
Finally to Croatia which elects to the Sabor. The main parties are the centre-right HDZ and the centre-left Social Democrats and they are locked together at 27% each but that's 12 points down from the combined share at the 2016 election. The smaller parties gaining ground include the right-wing Independents for Croatia and a party set up by a Zagreb lawyer called National List Mislav Kolokusic which is currently polling at 6.2% which would put it into the aforementioned Sabor.
Even more finally to Poland where the governing Law & Justice is on 49% and looks set for a comfortable re-election in the November elections to the Sejm. The main opposition is Donald Tusk's Civic Platform but that trails on 25%