politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest PB / Polling Matters podcast asks two big questions

StuartDickson said:

His minders can hinder Johnson from making a tit of himself during the Tory leadership contest, but they cannot change his basic personality. Once elected, the inner-Boris will out. The man is a buffoon.

Yes, his victory is inevitable as long as the minders succeed in protecting him from himself,

No, he is not a vote winner, because the finest minders in the world cannot erect an impregnable barrier around him.

Keep out of sight; say practically nothing, and then only in controlled circumstances to safe audiences. We saw at Boris's launch, where he called a Mail journalist and then had to ask if he was even present, that he was talking only to pre-selected questioners, and then not taking follow-ups.

A bit like Theresa May in 2017. Hardly an unqualified success. Common factor: Lynton Crosby.

eek said:

He’s only a winner because people are assuming name recognition in polling as something more than that. Come any election and the truth will quickly be revealed.

Yes. Whoever is the new prime minister will become famous almost overnight. Name recognition at this stage does not mean an advantage in a general election.

Fishing said:

One of the many good things about being in California is that Boris, Jeremy and the rest of them seem a very long way away.

The only downside is you are closer to me and rcs1000.

HYUFD said:

edmundintokyo said:

kjohnw said:

Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

British voters:
25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
55% Basically LibDems

Fair enough, the problem is some on PB want 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs (plus of course it depends on the issue on crime, immigration etc voters tend to take a harder line then the LDs and they also back renationalising the railways etc unlike the LDs)

Can you tell us who you think on PB "wants 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs"? I haven't had this impression in over 10 years of reading the comments.

It would have to be a pretty rare person who is interested in politics, their opinions lie in the middle or staddle the political spectrum and then be against the exixstence of parties to the left or the right. The LDs even have "democrats" in their name.

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

edmundintokyo said:

kjohnw said:

Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

British voters:
25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
55% Basically LibDems

Fair enough, the problem is some on PB want 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs (plus of course it depends on the issue on crime, immigration etc voters tend to take a harder line then the LDs and they also back renationalising the railways etc unlike the LDs)

Can you tell us who you think on PB "wants 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs"? I haven't had this impression in over 10 years of reading the comments.

It would have to be a pretty rare person who is interested in politics, their opinions lie in the middle or staddle the political spectrum and then be against the exixstence of parties to the left or the right. The LDs even have "democrats" in their name.

As did the German Democratic Republic. Outside the US "Democratic" is a weasel word. It is one of those words that if you have to say it then it probably isn't true.

I haven't seen much evidence that the LDs are Liberal either.

AlastairMeeks said:

Take a look at who Vox, the Spanish far right anti-immigrant party, have aligned with in the European Parliament. This should be a huge controversy but probably won’t be.

Yep, the anti-immigrant, Soros-conspiracist, Franco-nostalgic, anti-equality, Bannon-promoted Vox party will sit with the Tories in the European parliament. Hard right English nationalists and far right Spanish nationalists in perfect harmony - as long as you do not mention Gibraltar.

Good morning everyone. Has the rain actually stopped? Just down to showers for a couple of hours today, then a reasonable prospect of sun for a few days now.

Came across two anecdotes about politicians over the last couple of days; one dead, one very much alive. The first was of Harold Wilson, when faced with a young trainee journalist, who was very nervous. Told that she was, and why, he told her to ask whatever she wanted, but could he hear... not see.... what she'd written. She did, he made only a very few minor changes, and she went on to be confirmed in her fist job and go on to have a satisfying career.
The other tale was of Boris who apparently sometimes goes into his local supermarket (yes, I was surprised, too, but apparently it's 'man of the people' stuff) and throws his weight about. Makes himself very unpopular with management and staff.

Interesting yesterday (was it commented on?) that GO gave Boris the option of support from the ES if... Boris would jettison the blimpish oaf and embrace his inner liberal.

Not sure if Osborne was trolling or not but I'm sure something for BoJo's campaign manager to ponder.

SquareRoot said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone. Has the rain actually stopped? Just down to showers for a couple of hours today, then a reasonable prospect of sun for a few days now.

Came across two anecdotes about politicians over the last couple of days; one dead, one very much alive. The first was of Harold Wilson, when faced with a young trainee journalist, who was very nervous. Told that she was, and why, he told her to ask whatever she wanted, but could he hear... not see.... what she'd written. She did, he made only a very few minor changes, and she went on to be confirmed in her fist job and go on to have a satisfying career.
The other tale was of Boris who apparently sometimes goes into his local supermarket (yes, I was surprised, too, but apparently it's 'man of the people' stuff) and throws his weight about. Makes himself very unpopular with management and staff.

citation required

The first anecdote was in Third Age Matters, the magazine of the U3a, the University of the Third Age. The second was a private conversation.

OldKingCole said:

SquareRoot said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone. Has the rain actually stopped? Just down to showers for a couple of hours today, then a reasonable prospect of sun for a few days now.

Came across two anecdotes about politicians over the last couple of days; one dead, one very much alive. The first was of Harold Wilson, when faced with a young trainee journalist, who was very nervous. Told that she was, and why, he told her to ask whatever she wanted, but could he hear... not see.... what she'd written. She did, he made only a very few minor changes, and she went on to be confirmed in her fist job and go on to have a satisfying career.
The other tale was of Boris who apparently sometimes goes into his local supermarket (yes, I was surprised, too, but apparently it's 'man of the people' stuff) and throws his weight about. Makes himself very unpopular with management and staff.

citation required

The first anecdote was in Third Age Matters, the magazine of the U3a, the University of the Third Age. The second was a private conversation.

It isn't private any more.

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

OldKingCole said:

SquareRoot said:

OldKingCole said:

Good morning everyone. Has the rain actually stopped? Just down to showers for a couple of hours today, then a reasonable prospect of sun for a few days now.

Came across two anecdotes about politicians over the last couple of days; one dead, one very much alive. The first was of Harold Wilson, when faced with a young trainee journalist, who was very nervous. Told that she was, and why, he told her to ask whatever she wanted, but could he hear... not see.... what she'd written. She did, he made only a very few minor changes, and she went on to be confirmed in her fist job and go on to have a satisfying career.
The other tale was of Boris who apparently sometimes goes into his local supermarket (yes, I was surprised, too, but apparently it's 'man of the people' stuff) and throws his weight about. Makes himself very unpopular with management and staff.

citation required

The first anecdote was in Third Age Matters, the magazine of the U3a, the University of the Third Age. The second was a private conversation.

in other words a smear. I don't like Boris , but its the sort of smear that appears at these times. Remember the one about Obama dissing veterans, which was a straight out and out lie.

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Jonathan said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Corbyn may be misguided in some of his ideology and has not done enough to stop antisemitism and abuse in Labour, but there is also no doubt that he genuinely cares about things and people other than himself.

Boris cares about Boris.

They are not the same.

That's a big mistake people make about Corbyn. He genuinely cares about *some* things and *some* people.

If you're not in certain groups, he sees you as the enemy. In some ways that's more dangerous than an egomaniac like Johnson.

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Personally they are very different, as are their motivations. But what they represent, what methods they use and what they will in practice deliver are pretty much identical.

eristdoof said:

HYUFD said:

edmundintokyo said:

kjohnw said:

Rory Stewart will be out by Tuesday, he is basically a Lib Dem

British voters:
25% Genuine Conservative (vote Brexit Party etc)
20% Genuine Labour (like Corbyn etc)
55% Basically LibDems

Fair enough, the problem is some on PB want 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs (plus of course it depends on the issue on crime, immigration etc voters tend to take a harder line then the LDs and they also back renationalising the railways etc unlike the LDs)

Can you tell us who you think on PB "wants 100% of our political parties to basically be LDs"? I haven't had this impression in over 10 years of reading the comments.

It would have to be a pretty rare person who is interested in politics, their opinions lie in the middle or staddle the political spectrum and then be against the exixstence of parties to the left or the right. The LDs even have "democrats" in their name.

My experience of PB-ers through the years is that many want the LDs to replace Labour as the opposition to the Tories AND at the same time to support Tory policies.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Personally they are very different, as are their motivations. But what they represent, what methods they use and what they will in practice deliver are pretty much identical.

Nah. Different in motivations, methods and outcomes and problematical in different ways.

For example

Corbyn has been banging on about the issues he cares about, fashionable or not for 40 years. He hasn’t changed his mind once in that time. When he ceases to be Labour leader he will carry on.

Meanwhile Boris believes in whatever will help Boris at that moment.

YBarddCwsc said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Agreed. Boris & Jeremy are not the same.

They are also not British versions of Trump.

Jeremy is also not anti-semitic. Boris is also not a racist.

Unfortunately, Brexit and Corby-mania has driven Southam completely mad.

I am very far from sure I would say Boris is 'not a racist.'

Even allowing for an element of hatchet jobbing, this is a pretty damning list:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

As for Corbyn, he thinks he is not an anti-Semite. That is not altogether the same thing.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Personally they are very different, as are their motivations. But what they represent, what methods they use and what they will in practice deliver are pretty much identical.

No, not really. Unusual for you to let your prejudices overwhelm your usually sharp judgement.

Jeremy Corbyn and Boris Johnson are not the same, just as Ebola and anthrax are not the same. That doesn’t mean that I’d be rushing to contract either of them.

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Personally they are very different, as are their motivations. But what they represent, what methods they use and what they will in practice deliver are pretty much identical.

Nah. Different in motivations, methods and outcomes and problematical in different ways.

For example

Corbyn has been banging on about the issues he cares about, fashionable or not for 40 years. He hasn’t changed his mind once in that time. When he ceases to be Labour leader he will carry on.

Meanwhile Boris believes in whatever will help Boris at that moment.

Yes, they have very different motivations. Both have spent years standing shoulder to shoulder with racists to get what they want, though.

SouthamObserver said:

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Yep, the motivations are different. The end result is the same. Both are happy to pander to racists to achieve their aims. Both avoid scrutiny. Both are prepared to see their supporters harry and harass the media. Both are going to inflict significant damage on the UK, perhaps to the point of destroying it. They are two British versions of Trump - and are just as divisive and destructive. It is true, though, that Johnson does seem to inspire slightly more affection among slightly more people than Corbyn. But far less than he used to.

Oh come on, they’re clearly not the same.

Personally they are very different, as are their motivations. But what they represent, what methods they use and what they will in practice deliver are pretty much identical.

They are both deeply flawed individuals, with Corbyn having a mental rigidity that rivals May.

Johnson is just over entitled English Public School privilege encapsulated in one person. A classic example of the belief that an amateur winging it without proper preparation and not listening to advice is a suitable way to run a country.

We do not need evidence from supermarket anecdotes that he is like this,there is plenty in the public domain. Indeed, like many other arrogant toddlers he doesn't see for to hide it, such is his sense of entitlement.

kamski said:

IanB2 said:

Jonathan said:

JosiasJessop said:

SouthamObserver said:

SquareRoot said:

SouthamObserver said:

The stand-out stat for me in the Ipsos-Mori polling was just how narrow Johnson's lead was over Corbyn. Six points is nothing compared to the big leads Theresa may and Don't Know have enjoyed over him on a regular basis.

Corbyn hasn't been in the news this week.. Wait till he opens his gob.. Anyone, even a grub would have a lead over Corbyn. Thoroughly nasty individual , unfit to be PM

Corbyn and Johnson are two peas in a pod.

That's a rather simplistic view - I think they're very different. Corbyn is driven by an underlying ideology: a disastrous and diseased ideology that has led him into the depths of anti-Semitism, but an ideology nonetheless.

Boris's ideology is Boris Johnson. He will do whatever he thinks is best for Boris Johnson and his friends, not the country. Hence the Garden Bridge debacle.

Both Corbyn and Boris are dangerous to the country in different ways. Boris does have the advantage of being outwardly likeable to many, though.

Corbyn may be misguided in some of his ideology and has not done enough to stop antisemitism and abuse in Labour, but there is also no doubt that he genuinely cares about things and people other than himself.

Boris cares about Boris.

They are not the same.

Yes, from the centre I would agree with that. Corbyn has strong views and principles, and remarkably low ambition for a top tier politician. You don’t need to like or agree with his views to see that he has them. Boris has barely any views, no principles, and tons of ambition.

It's probably true that Johnson is first and foremost a chancer, but he does have views, or at least prejudices.

I think one of the big divides in politics is between those who believe in the Just World Hypothesis and those who don't. Johnson gives the impression of fully believing, for example, that those who are rich are rich because they deserve it and those who are poor are poor because they deserve it. Hence his one policy so far of a tax cut for the rich. This is another difference with Corbyn.

Or maybe he's cynically just worked out how to pass a bung to Tory members? Remarkable that his tax cut directs the biggest benefit to higher earning retirees, when the "logic" (as I understand it) of Tory tax cutting is normally focused on incentives for wealth creation.

https://twitter.com/bbcnickrobinson/status/1139425576522002432

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsPolitics/status/1139425097578668032

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

YBarddCwsc said:

ydoethur said:

I am very far from sure I would say Boris is 'not a racist.'

Even allowing for an element of hatchet jobbing, this is a pretty damning list:

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2019/06/boris-johnson-s-racist-insults-dog-whistles-and-slurs

As for Corbyn, he thinks he is not an anti-Semite. That is not altogether the same thing.

Really, is writing a poem about Erdogan having sex with a goat racist ? Or quoting Kipling ?

I don't want to end up defending Boris (someone I rather dislike), but much of that list is just flimsy.

There is also a danger if terms like "racism" or "antisemitism" are weakened to meaninglessness, in my opinion.

To the first, couldn't care less about Erdogan. He deserves it. In that context, yes, to the second. As for what he called the Africans or Papua New Guineans...

Kipling .. I think Foxy has it right in his description of Boris as entitled public school privilege.

"Let me show you I know Kipling off by heart. You don't know it do you. Jolly good stuff."

I'd describe that attitude as insensitive, childish, & egocentric.

Reciting Kipling at the Shwedegon pagoda was an interesting insight to the man-child. It is a magnificent and highly revered site, one that I have visited myself.

I think it unlikely that Johnson had committed enough Kipling to memory at school to be able to recite it, decades later. I think that he re-read it on the way there in preparation, in preference to his briefing papers on the country. Fortunately the British Diplomat cut him short before he insulted the Buddha at Yangon 's holiest site.

AlastairMeeks said:

You can lay Andrea Leadsom, who is now out of the leadership race, at a shorter price than Matt Hancock, who is still in it.

Lolz.

There are a fair number of Tories here who think Johnson will save them from electoral oblivion. I don't believe that to be the case, but understand the reasons why.

Other than that, is there anyone willing to speak up for him to say that he is suitable to the role of Prime Minister?

ydoethur said:

Anyway, before I go I think we are all missing the most serious news today:

Gulf of Oman tanker attacks: US says video shows Iran removing mine https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-48633016

If this stands up, it seems likely there will be war between the US and Iran before the end of July.

It will be very nasty.

And on that cheerful note, have a good morning.

Hope we stay out. Questions need to asked,, and answered, by our line up of potential PMs.

https://twitter.com/PeterMannionMP/status/1139429260232482817

Anna Soubry's constituency

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stapleford South East (Broxtowe) result:

LDEM: 44.3% (+19.8)
CON: 30.1% (-0.3)
LAB: 25.5% (-2.9)

No Stapleford Alliance (-16.6) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN (X2) from Conservative.
23:31 - 13 Jun 2019

The usual completely over the top nonsense about Johnson this morning. Is this a competition and if so what's the prize? If its just virtue signalling its getting a tad tedious.

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You can lay Andrea Leadsom, who is now out of the leadership race, at a shorter price than Matt Hancock, who is still in it.

Lolz.

Leadsom, backed by the Prince of Whales

logical_song said:

Anna Soubry's constituency

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stapleford South East (Broxtowe) result:

LDEM: 44.3% (+19.8)
CON: 30.1% (-0.3)
LAB: 25.5% (-2.9)

No Stapleford Alliance (-16.6) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN (X2) from Conservative.
23:31 - 13 Jun 2019

And still they think no deal Brexit is the road to salvation ...

logical_song said:

Anna Soubry's constituency

Britain Elects
@britainelects
Stapleford South East (Broxtowe) result:

LDEM: 44.3% (+19.8)
CON: 30.1% (-0.3)
LAB: 25.5% (-2.9)

No Stapleford Alliance (-16.6) as prev.

Liberal Democrat GAIN (X2) from Conservative.
23:31 - 13 Jun 2019

Tbf the Stapleford Alliance was a LibDem splinter group, so you could say there has only been a small swing toward the LibDems overall. Nevertheless its a creditable result, and may change who runs the local council.

BBC says Hancock may be on the point of pulling out.

RochdalePioneers said:

If they want Johnson then great - he's fit to lead the party. If Johnson then wins an election he's fit to lead the country.

Thats what democracy is.

That is demonstrably fallacious.

Corbyn is not fit to lead Labour. With almost any other leader they would be miles ahead.

Trump is not fit to lead America. He's doing it, but that doesn't make him fit.

In response to @Philip_Thompson (fpt)

“It takes two to tango.

If the EU refuses to give us a decent deal then what are we supposed to do?

If the EU says you can Brexit and we can give you a trade deal but you must sign up that you will follow our laws in full, you won't get a say in them and there is no way out of this agreement then are we just supposed to sign that?

If they said you can exit but instead of paying £9bn per annum we now want you to pay £18bn are we just supposed to sign that?”


Welcome to the world of power politics where the stronger party imposes its will on the weaker party if it has something which the latter wants. What you describe are known as trade offs. They were pointed out to the Brexiteers both before and after the referendum result. They chose to sack those who did the pointing out and have had a prolonged tantrum ever since at the fact that Britain does not get its way. They have resorted instead to living in a fantasy world and, judging by what the likely candidates for leadership are saying, are still in that fantasy world.

As a result at some point soon the brutal realities of power politics will be felt by this country.

We could do without a FTA with the EU but this will likely have serious economic consequences for the country. Is that what people wanted? Or was it for a deal which could be signed in an afternoon?

It’s too much to expect, I suppose, for a party seemingly intent on electing a habitual liar as leader to be honest with the voters.

IanB2 said:

BBC says Hancock may be on the point of pulling out.

Telegraph understands he will back Javid.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You can lay Andrea Leadsom, who is now out of the leadership race, at a shorter price than Matt Hancock, who is still in it.

Lolz.

The Leadsom betting price is the funniest thing all year. Now out the race and the bot still thinks she has a chance !

It's a real puzzle.

We've had instances before of supporters manipulating the betting markets in the hope of creating an illusion of support. One of the earliest and most famous of these involved Clement Freud during a Liberal Party Leadership contest. More spectacularly, the Romney team primed Intrade during his contest with Obama, allowing many on here to arb happily with the prices on Betfair.

The Leadsome case is a bit odd though. She never had the faintest chance, and it would have been an expensive way to create support. Few people outside this niche Site would have noticed the betting anomoly and it's hard to believe more than a tiny handful of people would have been misled or inflenced by her absurd price.

Somebody must have a lot more money than sense, or there are more crap punters out there than we thought.

These things seem to happen on BFE. I remember in the runup to 30 March, someone was putting lumps of round £thousands on a no deal exit at the end of that week, even as it was becoming obvious we would get an extension.

Ploppikins said:

Reading all of this, it's a serious case of 'grass is always greener'. 2010-2015 was rife with complaints about identikit politicians you couldn't get a cigarette paper between. Does anyone remember the name of that 40-something, fresh faced, sharp suited, media trained, Oxbridge educated, metropolitan liberal who led that major party back then?? Think it was something like Cameronleggiband?

Now we've got a genuine choice and people are up in arms! You can have proper socialism. You can have a right wing government. Hell you can even have a party that accepts capitalism but wants it to be a bit fairer (LDs... and don't tell me it's a wasted vote, they were in power 4 years ago). So is it really that bad? Or is the rhetoric more divisive because people now have a real choice?

Haha well said

DavidL said:

The usual completely over the top nonsense about Johnson this morning. Is this a competition and if so what's the prize? If its just virtue signalling its getting a tad tedious.

The "prize" is the tenancy pf 10 Downing Street. The scrutiny should be forensic and, if necessary, excoriating especially as the favourite has become uncharacteristically demur and shy.

https://twitter.com/BethRigby/status/1139434185893056512

Pulpstar said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

You can lay Andrea Leadsom, who is now out of the leadership race, at a shorter price than Matt Hancock, who is still in it.

Lolz.

The Leadsom betting price is the funniest thing all year. Now out the race and the bot still thinks she has a chance !

Tempting as it is to hoover up whatever I can I have better things to do with my money over the next five weeks.

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

The usual completely over the top nonsense about Johnson this morning. Is this a competition and if so what's the prize? If its just virtue signalling its getting a tad tedious.

You'd be in a horrible place in the Tory betting if you'd followed all the above the line advice on Boris, especially if you missed the Hunt tip !

Indeed. I read several forecasts yesterday morning that his votes were going to be below the declared supporters. Its not analysis, its plain dislike and bias. Previously we were repeatedly told that he would not make the final 2 and that he would be blocked by Tory MPs. Hey ho.

Boris is not a monster. He has many faults but he is also clever, witty, a reasonable delegator and someone not frightened of ideas. He is colour in a world of black and white. That has drawbacks sometimes but it is also interesting in a way that most politicians aren't. There are several others in this leadership race that I would prefer but this site is losing its sense of perspective.

Boris will be tolerable as premier only if he delegates wisely and efficiently to a string of very talented number twos.

That’s why his mayoralty was a success.

DavidL said:

Pulpstar said:

DavidL said:

The usual completely over the top nonsense about Johnson this morning. Is this a competition and if so what's the prize? If its just virtue signalling its getting a tad tedious.

You'd be in a horrible place in the Tory betting if you'd followed all the above the line advice on Boris, especially if you missed the Hunt tip !

Indeed. I read several forecasts yesterday morning that his votes were going to be below the declared supporters. Its not analysis, its plain dislike and bias. Previously we were repeatedly told that he would not make the final 2 and that he would be blocked by Tory MPs. Hey ho.

Boris is not a monster. He has many faults but he is also clever, witty, a reasonable delegator and someone not frightened of ideas. He is colour in a world of black and white. That has drawbacks sometimes but it is also interesting in a way that most politicians aren't. There are several others in this leadership race that I would prefer but this site is losing its sense of perspective.

Its an understandable reaction to having someone so dangerously unsuitable installed as our national leader without our having any say in the matter.

The Americans got Trump, but at least he got in through a nationwide election.

The Tories really haven't thought about the potential backlash if things do indeed to pear shaped.