politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next gener

GIN1138 said:

Plod on the Jo Brand case

https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-calls-on-bbc-to-explain-why-jo-brand-battery-acid-joke-was-broadcast-11741134

Amazing the non-reaction to this story vs Danny Baker ill-considered tweet. Baker was top of the BBC news and Persona non grata within the day, Brand not a mention.

GIN1138 said:

The rise and rise of Laura K continues as This Week is replaced by Brexitcast

https://inews.co.uk/news/bbc-brexitcast-podcast-to-become-weekly-tv-show-in-place-of-andrew-neils-this-week/

I really like Laura K. She reminds me of John Cole. Quite substantially prettier though.

GIN1138 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

GIN1138 said:

Plod on the Jo Brand case

https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-calls-on-bbc-to-explain-why-jo-brand-battery-acid-joke-was-broadcast-11741134

Amazing the non-reaction to this story vs Danny Baker ill-considered tweet.

Probably because 90% of people in the media secretly agree with Ms Brand.

Only 90%?

Omnium said:

GIN1138 said:

The rise and rise of Laura K continues as This Week is replaced by Brexitcast

https://inews.co.uk/news/bbc-brexitcast-podcast-to-become-weekly-tv-show-in-place-of-andrew-neils-this-week/

I really like Laura K. She reminds me of John Cole. Quite substantially prettier though.

The cult will be triggered by her "promotion".

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West

Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.

Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh

Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.

williamglenn said:

HYUFD said:

No, based on YouGov too, even Survation has had Boris doing best for the Tories v Labour in the past.

They all show Johnson getting a lower share of the vote than May got in 2017.

And all polls show Labour getting way lower than they got in 2017.....

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West

Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.

Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh

Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.

Oh to be rid of the useless Marcus Fysh

Trigger warning for TSE....Mark Reckless is on QT this evening.

Ishmael_Z said:

Casino_Royale said:

AndyJS said:

If the Chinese f**k up Hong Kong, they really are idiots.

We should never have given it back.

Not that we had a choice, or anything.

Water.

Edit: And contractual obligations, unless you're a "don't pay them a penny of that 39 billion" believer.

Yes, and if we'd had the New Territories in perpetuity and no massive humongous Red Army breathing down our necks with an autocratic Government backing it up it'd have stayed British, like a Far East Gibraltar.

There are still millions of British nationals (overseas) living there and few of them wanted to return to China, and the majority to stay self-governing in the British Commonwealth.

A referendum have given a very clear answer to that effect, but.. real politik.

logical_song said:

AndyJS said:

Boris appointing Priti Patel as Chancellor is a thought.

...or Home Secretary - then she could bring back hanging.
What's her position on flogging?

Flogging should take place on the decks of hulks.

nichomar said:

MarqueeMark said:

kle4 said:

Casino_Royale said:

JosiasJessop said:

Casino_Royale said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

viewcode said:

Endillion said:

RoyalBlue said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeL said:

Rules Question:

What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?

It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.

If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!

If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated

CROWNED DAMMIT

Push!

I can see the baby's head!

You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!

Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!

YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!

AAAAAAGH!

waaaah!

I’m getting flashbacks.

Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.

Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.

Over 24 hours for us.

My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.

Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).

These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.

Apparently I was nearly 6 weeks late, in one of the hottest summers on record.

I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....

1976?

I wish! Somewhat older....

kle4 said:

Fenman said:

A host of council by elections tonight

How many is a host?

A Laura Kuenssberg host or something more substantial for a Thursday night like Andrew Neil.

Hopefully Portillo and Alan Johnson and that nice Lib Dem woman will appear occasionally to give us some intellectual insight on Laura’s new late night offering?

But I Can’t see this Brexitcast show ruining for 18 years like This week has - but who knows with Brexit!

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Cyclefree said:

ThomasNashe said:

Cyclefree said:

ThomasNashe said:

Cyclefree said:

chloe said:

TGOHF said:

chloe said:

Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.

As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.

Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.

.

Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.

The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader

Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:

Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%

Con 201
Lab 292
LD 34
Brex 43
Green1
PC 4
SNP 57
NI 18

Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.

The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.

Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories

That's based on that one dodgy Comres poll isn't it? You're pinning a lot of hope on Johnson's pulling power. I think he is going to be a huge disappointment come 31st October. That's why he might risk a GE before then. High stakes! I have money on an October GE at decent odds.

No, based on YouGov too, even Survation has had Boris doing best for the Tories v Labour in the past.

Nothing like the ComRes poll! But you are right. It was based on those earlier polls that I agreed with you that Boris was the next PM and backed him substantially at good odds. He's still going to disappoint many of his supporters come 31st October.

rottenborough said:

logical_song said:

AndyJS said:

Boris appointing Priti Patel as Chancellor is a thought.

...or Home Secretary - then she could bring back hanging.
What's her position on flogging?

Flogging should take place on the decks of hulks.

Hulk Smash!

viewcode said:

JosiasJessop said:

viewcode said:

Ishmael_Z said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

OldKingCole said:

ThomasNashe said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

GIN1138 said:

Plod on the Jo Brand case

https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-calls-on-bbc-to-explain-why-jo-brand-battery-acid-joke-was-broadcast-11741134

Well, it was a damn silly thing to say.

But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.

Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.

Wasn't it aimed at Farage?

It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.

It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.

Quite right.

I think he was being ironic.

Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).

I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.

How has SeanT cleansed his posts? He may have asked OGH and co to remove them, but the Internet's more complex than that. I'm intrigued how it might be 'expensive'.

You can pay people to do it. Online reputation management services aka online reputation services are companies that remove or mask personal details. It's easier in Europe due to the right-to-be-forgotten. I know how to delete my history and all the other gubbins but for a proper job I would get a firm in, and they are expensive.

Thanks. I'm intrigued about how such services work.

IanB2 said:

I do think the next GE will see a return to a degree of anti-Tory tactical voting, which none of the models factor in.

In LD v Tory marginals maybe, less so in Tory v Labour marginals unless Corbyn commits to EUref2

JosiasJessop said:

viewcode said:

JosiasJessop said:

viewcode said:

Ishmael_Z said:

OldKingCole said:

viewcode said:

OldKingCole said:

ThomasNashe said:

RobD said:

OldKingCole said:

GIN1138 said:

Plod on the Jo Brand case

https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-calls-on-bbc-to-explain-why-jo-brand-battery-acid-joke-was-broadcast-11741134

Well, it was a damn silly thing to say.

But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.

Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.

Wasn't it aimed at Farage?

It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.

It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.

Quite right.

I think he was being ironic.

Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).

I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.

How has SeanT cleansed his posts? He may have asked OGH and co to remove them, but the Internet's more complex than that. I'm intrigued how it might be 'expensive'.

You can pay people to do it. Online reputation management services aka online reputation services are companies that remove or mask personal details. It's easier in Europe due to the right-to-be-forgotten. I know how to delete my history and all the other gubbins but for a proper job I would get a firm in, and they are expensive.

Thanks. I'm intrigued about how such services work.

Jessop!? Yeah, total wise man. Intrigued by things!

You now owe me a pound. (Also I may be able to pick up the odd few pennies from other Jessops.

Byronic said:

eek said:

HYUFD said:

eek said:

AlastairMeeks said:

On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.

Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.

No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.

No he can't - Boris can try to call a general election but he needs 66% of Parliament (or 434 MPs) to agree - so you could just ensure people weren't around.
The other option would be to VoNC himself which requires Corbyn to go along with it as only he can call a VoNC and Nigel would have a field day with that...

I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...

I know we have discussed this before - but I cannot see any way Corbyn could refuse the chance of an election. It would be such an odd look.

His whole shtick is that the Tories are evil kitten-smashers and must be chased out of power TODAY! So now he turns around and says Tories are evil kitten-smashers who must be chased out of power at some later time, this is a bit early. uh, they can carry on smashing kittens for a while, fine by us, let's have a prosecco?

Good luck with that.

It's really quite simple. From September onwards Corbyn can legitimately state that there needs to be a small extension due the timing of the election and the approaching October 31st deadline.

Boris then either gets an extension (at which point Nigel is going to destroy him) or he fails to get one but the EU isn't going to mind another 2 month delay for a proper final result so he will get one.
Then there will be an election - but Corbyn with any sense will ensure its on November 7th to ensue maximum harm...

So the only way to escape that is for Boris to try and go for an election in July as soon as he's elected - and that would then be on September 12th.

AndyJS said:

Casino_Royale said:

Stewart is the new Leadsom.

Was shorter than Gove a few minutes ago.

Their stupidity is our gain, as far as betting opportunities are concerned.

I can only assume that some punters don't understand the selection process, and are assuming Rory Stewart will somehow be going before the members regardless of the facts.

And then somehow assuming even if he did the members would vote for him ...

Have we had today’s ChUK-TIG name change klaxon yet?


https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1139244410472996865?s=20

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

I do think the next GE will see a return to a degree of anti-Tory tactical voting, which none of the models factor in.

In LD v Tory marginals maybe, less so in Tory v Labour marginals unless Corbyn commits to EUref2

As a centre-right Remainer in a Tory v Labour marginal, I would probably vote Labour again if there were an election this year, regardless of their fence-sitting. If the Brexit Party split the Tory vote then I’d vote Lib Dem.

IanB2 said:

rottenborough said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

GIN1138 said:

dr_spyn said:

Hammond helpfully tosses in a grenade.

https://twitter.com/PhilipHammondUK/status/1139212305743450115

Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.

He's yesterdays man...

Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor

Utterly stupid if so. It needs to be one of Liz Truss or Andea Leadsom, even Amber Rudd.

Boris needs to balance his team or it will look male dominated

I have a bet on Truss. She has some decent experience. And Boris announcing first female CoE would appeal to him.

She is favourite at 2.0 on BFE, although there isn’t much money on it.

Thanks. I am on at 11.

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West

Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.

Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh

Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.

Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?

numbertwelve said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Have we had today’s ChUK-TIG name change klaxon yet?


https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1139244410472996865?s=20

The Tiggers are textbook how not to run a new party.

To be honest, Rory Stewart would be a better leader than all of them put together.

numbertwelve said:

Harris_Tweed said:

Have we had today’s ChUK-TIG name change klaxon yet?


https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1139244410472996865?s=20

The Tiggers are textbook how not to run a new party.

Half a party!

nichomar said:

Barnesian said:

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West

Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.

Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh

Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.

Oh to be rid of the useless Marcus Fysh

Don't tell me Anne Main of Expenses Scandal fame is finally to get her come-uppance!

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Nooooo! This makes my hardcopy of Erskine May no longer cool!

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1139177106267693056

What does it say under 'Prorogue'?

On the subject of Prorogue:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1139153314740920320?s=19

IanB2 said:

I do think the next GE will see a return to a degree of anti-Tory tactical voting, which none of the models factor in.

What about the 40% Labour got last time was not tactical voting.

I ❤️ Rory

https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1139252215842058240?s=21

TheScreamingEagles said:

I ❤️ Rory

https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1139252215842058240?s=21

Can he be the leader of the socially liberal, fiscally dry, not obsessed by immigration, immigrants, gays, and Europe New Tory Party.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Nooooo! This makes my hardcopy of Erskine May no longer cool!

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1139177106267693056

What does it say under 'Prorogue'?

It says 'See Clusterfuck.'

I thought that was under 'Brexit'.

Benpointer said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Nooooo! This makes my hardcopy of Erskine May no longer cool!

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1139177106267693056

What does it say under 'Prorogue'?

It says 'See Clusterfuck.'

I thought that was under 'Brexit'.

Synonyms, aren't they?

HYUFD said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

HYUFD said:

Barnesian said:

HYUFD said:

justin124 said:

Cyclefree said:

ThomasNashe said:

Cyclefree said:

ThomasNashe said:

Cyclefree said:

chloe said:

TGOHF said:

chloe said:

Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.

As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.

Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.

I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is ner I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.

Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.

The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader

Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:

Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%

Con 201
Lab 292
LD 34
Brex 43
Green1
PC 4
SNP 57
NI 18

Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.

The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.

Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories

You are possessed with Boris and opinion polls.

My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West, while seats will be lost in Scotland but depending on how Boris can convince the fishing communities he will get us out of the CFP. As far as Wales is concerned the effect may

My guess is a Boris majority but of Cameron 2015 levels not a landslide and I think the LDs could beat Labour in voteshare which would see Corbyn get an even worse result than Foot. So not that far apart

Underestimating Corbyn again, will they never learn

Well apparently if you want to be a candidate for leader of the Conservative party (and de facto the Prime Minister) you now have to pay the Conservative Party £150,000 for the privilege

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/13/marginal-candidates-pressure-drop-conservative-party-demand/

I knew that the Conservatives have become a bunch of crooks and tossers but didn't know that they were this brazen.

(declaration of interest: onetime member of the Conservative Party, sometime Conservative candidate in local council election)

IMO both Hancock and Javid are going to struggle to reach 33 in the next round. Will they consider standing down before Tuesday's vote?

AndyJS said:

IMO both Hancock and Javid are going to struggle to reach 33 in the next round. Will they consider standing down before Tuesday's vote?

As I said earlier they should both be cashing in their support for a top job whilst they still have something to trade.

isam said:

If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?

That's an if too far.

Barnesian said:

Brilliant article on Johnson in June edition of the New Yorker.

One quote:

In 1988 Johnson contributed a chapter to "The Oxford Myth", a book of essays edited by his sister Rachel, in which he emphasised the importance of cultivating adoring followers.  "The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge" Johnson wrote.

Potential stooges watch out!

EDIT: Another quote:

Johnson hates choosing between things, even right and wrong. "I want to have my cake and eat it" sums him up.

Hmm

The 'Stooge' bit is uncannily reminiscent of Trump's approach. It's more familiarly understood as 'never give a sucker an even break', and certainly Donald is taking the US voters for suckers right now.

We of course are far to smart for those tricks....

Foxy said:

isam said:

If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?

Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.

Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.

Omnium said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I ❤️ Rory

https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1139252215842058240?s=21

I like him too. But what sort of an idea is a 'citizens' assembly' with the ArchBish being part of that?

He's excellent, but I think he needs some friends to bounce these ideas against. It worries me that he seems to have no such friends.

Yes, not a fan of that idea either, and he is also pretty unreaslistic just in different ways, but he certainly has a strong personality and is a breath of fresh air.

kle4 said:

Foxy said:

isam said:

If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?

Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.

Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.

Well, opinions change!

The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.

TOPPING said:

isam said:

If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?

What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.

Here’s hoping 🤞🏻

isam said:

If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?

Assuming a spartan surrender seems rather a biggie?

TheScreamingEagles said:

Stark_Dawning said:

Jenks, like many of us on here, thinks that Boris's Brexit plan is to hoodwink everyone into accepting Theresa's deal:

Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/13/boris-johnson-tories-labour-voters

I think Boris Johnson's strategy is to try and get a deal, but then pivot towards no deal, then blame Parliament when it blocks him for doing no deal.

But how does he get any kind of deal that is significantly different from May's deal? The EU won't wear it. And if he tries sleight of hand, Farage calls him out.

Snookered, mate.

Benpointer said:

kle4 said:

Nooooo! This makes my hardcopy of Erskine May no longer cool!

https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1139177106267693056

What does it say under 'Prorogue'?

A great deal, too much to transcribe.

It opens quite clearly that 'the prorogation of parliament is a prerogative act of the Crown.

In terms of procedure this is either by a commission (preceded by a proclamation) or by a proclamation alone. The Queen may issue a proclamation giving notice of her intention that parliament shall meet for the dispatch of business on any date afte rthe date of the proclmation, and parliament then stands prorogued to that day, notwithstanding the previous prorogation.

Those are just random snippets (which, regretfully, now everyone will be able to view) but in any case I don't think the main objection is the legality of any prorogation.

MarqueeMark said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West

Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.

I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.

Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.

The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.

https://twitter.com/jessicaelgot/status/1139259132626780160