Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
His election as leader will neutralise many of the attacks that could be made against Corbyn and his move towards Brexit and even the contemplation of shutting down Parliament will alienate many of those who voted for him in the past.
If the Tories choose him it simply shows that they are no longer a serious party, that old-fashioned, sensible Conservatism is dead and that they put the interests of their own party above those of the country.
The Tories are not thinking straight. Choosing Boris is simply them indulging in a group hug. (A much more vulgar term would be more accurate but it is still early and this is a respectable site.)
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is now a safe Labour seat. But in Cumbria - in the constituency next to Rory’s - it’s a marginal. So my vote counts there. And nice as Trudi Harrison is I’m not going to reward the Tories for what they are doing.
Were Rory to become leader I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
The Tories are doing what the financial sector did for many years: choosing the risky, the flashy, the superficial with little regard for morality or decency or trustworthiness or old-fashioned concepts such as leadership and integrity. They will end up in big trouble and, eventually, will realise that such things do matter, are indeed more important than the golden calf they have worshipped. But we will have to endure the mess first, I fear.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
Indeed, it could be 1 Boris, 2 Raab, 3 Hunt, 4 Gove and everyone else eliminated by this time next Tuesday
Could well be. Although I would postulate the order as follows -
4. Michael 3. Dominic 2. Jeremy 1. Johnson
Could be that too but I can't see where Hunt gets many more votes from those eliminated today, I think most of McVey and Leadsom's votes will go to Raab or Boris and Hunt will have to share Harper's votes with Gove, Stewart, Javid and Hancock
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
His election as leader will neutralise many of the attacks that could be made against Corbyn and his move towards Brexit and even the contemplation of shutting down Parliament will alienate many of those who voted for him in the past.
If the Tories choose him it simply shows that they are no longer a serious party, that old-fashioned, sensible Conservatism is dead and that they put the interests of their own party above those of the country.
The Tories are not thinking straight. Choosing Boris is simply them indulging in a group hug. (A much more vulgar term would be more accurate but it is still early and this is a respectable site.)
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is now a safe Labour seat. But in Cumbria - in the constituency next to Rory’s - it’s a marginal. So my vote counts there. And nice as Trudi Harrison is I’m not going to reward the Tories for what they are doing.
Were Rory to become leader I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
The Tories are doing what the financial sector did for many years: choosing the risky, the flashy, the superficial with little regard for morality or decency or trustworthiness or old-fashioned concepts such as leadership and integrity. They will end up in big trouble and, eventually, will realise that such things do matter, are indeed more important than the golden calf they have worshipped. But we will have to endure the mess first, I fear.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
Priti Chancellor? How mad do things have to get?
Things don't get crazier than 'Boris Johnson and/or Jeremy Corbyn will soon be Prime Minister'.
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
I think you give them too much credit that they care about anything other than Brexit. Repackage an idea as Tory/Labour and you can get either side to agree it, their purported commitment to ideology is a pile of crap.
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
The idea of Boris as PM with one of those as Chancellor is terrifying.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
His election as leader will neutralise many of the attacks that could be made against Corbyn and his move towards Brexit and even the contemplation of shutting down Parliament will alienate many of those who voted for him in the past.
If the Tories choose him it simply shows that they are no longer a serious party, that old-fashioned, sensible Conservatism is dead and that they put the interests of their own party above those of the country.
The Tories are not thinking straight. Choosing Boris is simply them indulging in a group hug. (A much more vulgar term would be more accurate but it is still early and this is a respectable site.)
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is now a safe Labour seat. But in Cumbria - in the constituency next to Rory’s - it’s a marginal. So my vote counts there. And nice as Trudi Harrison is I’m not going to reward the Tories for what they are doing.
Were Rory to become leader I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
The Tories are doing what the financial sector did for many years: choosing the risky, the flashy, the superficial with little regard for morality or decency or trustworthiness or old-fashioned concepts such as leadership and integrity. They will end up in big trouble and, eventually, will realise that such things do matter, are indeed more important than the golden calf they have worshipped. But we will have to endure the mess first, I fear.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
By election boosts and the usual subsequent unwinding is likely to be independent of polls.
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
The idea of Boris as PM with one of those as Chancellor is terrifying.
No more or less than the Labour Party. In the case of the latter one is assured that backbenchers will restrain them. Why should one not think the same with a Johnson administration. If people believe one then they should have no issue with the latter.
But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.
Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.
Wasn't it aimed at Farage?
It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.
It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.
Quite right.
I think he was being ironic.
Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).
I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.
- Snap election in September. - Big majority for Boris. - Second referendum in 2020.
Why would they bother with #3?
To get off the hook for delivering Brexit.
Your dreaming if you think that will happen. If Boris wins a massive majority on the basis on getting Brexit through, they aren't going to go for a second referendum.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
I don't think people promoting British products automatically rises to the level of Trumpian nationalism. I assume there's a reason the supermarket feels it necessary to tell me that milk or beef is British or Irish, in that people apparently care about it. Certainly politicians.
Also comes as news to me that Tea is a British product. Must be some plantations in a corner of Kent I haven't visited.
We think Tea and Curry are British.
The Indians think Cricket and Railways are theirs.
We have a special relationship.
I think not somehow.
Cameron wanted to make it the special relationship of the 21st Century.
What more proof do I need?
They may be in the commonwealth but we're still the former imperial power.
Why would India want a special relationship with Britain? They're much more bothered about the US and China? What exactly are we going to offer them that they can't get elsewhere?
- Snap election in September. - Big majority for Boris. - Second referendum in 2020.
Why would they bother with #3?
To get off the hook for delivering Brexit.
Your dreaming if you think that will happen. If Boris wins a massive majority on the basis on getting Brexit through, they aren't going to go for a second referendum.
The most accurate way to predict the future is to start from the assumption that Brexit won't happen, and then work backwards from there to fit the current circumstances.
Boris winning a big majority ain't going to happen. The Tories under Boris absolute best case is scraping a majority with the combination of those who want Brexit and the never Corbyn's, with just the correct amount of Labour voters splitting to Lib Dems because of Jezza's fence sitting.
The only published poll so far gave the Conservatives a majority of 140 under Johnson. Now there are a number of reasons why you may be sceptical that that is the most probable outcome, and I think most of us here would view that as tending towards an extreme of a wide variety of possible outcomes. However, in the face of such evidence you are just closing your eyes to the facts if you claim that the "absolute best case" is the Conservatives scraping a majority under Johnson.
The assumptions beneath that projection are obvious nonsense. The LibDems aren’t going to near treble their national vote by merrily adding the same percentage in every seat. On those percentages the LibDems will be sweeping Tories away through much of the Home Counties and South West.
I agree. I also suspect some of their most spectacular gains will come in London.
What clown would vote for those lying duffers. They could not run a bath.
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
The idea of Boris as PM with one of those as Chancellor is terrifying.
No more or less than the Labour Party. In the case of the latter one is assured that backbenchers will restrain them. Why should one not think the same with a Johnson administration. If people believe one then they should have no issue with the latter.
It can be considered terrifying irrespective of what one thinks of Labour.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
A friend of ours, a slip of a lass, had two children. The first nearly 11 pounds, the second a bit lighter. For the second, there was a crash team with resus and other gear waiting outside the cubicle. It frightened her husband silly - and she still doesn't know about it.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
Perhaps you could advise on the success of Imperial Preference.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.
Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.
Wasn't it aimed at Farage?
It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.
It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.
Quite right.
I think he was being ironic.
Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).
I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.
How has SeanT cleansed his posts? He may have asked OGH and co to remove them, but the Internet's more complex than that. I'm intrigued how it might be 'expensive'.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Could be that too but I can't see where Hunt gets many more votes from those eliminated today, I think most of McVey and Leadsom's votes will go to Raab or Boris and Hunt will have to share Harper's votes with Gove, Stewart, Javid and Hancock
☺
Well you're the member so I ought to defer.
But I can see Mark's support going to Jeremy - all of it.
And as for Esther and Andrea, Dominic will benefit but so I suspect will Michael.
So if Matt and Sajid pull out and get behind Rory, what does that all add up to?
Or more particularly what does it mean for Johnson?
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros . So the Leave vote there isn’t going to coalesce and they have a pool now of not even 30% . Scotland is more Remain now than in 2016.
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
Better in the old days when men were banned from births. Saying that I was on the boat from Barra to LochBoisdale when my daughter was born, out of touch with the world.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
Apparently I was nearly 6 weeks late, in one of the hottest summers on record.
I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Despite his conversion, Hunt will be viewed as still too Remainy for the rank and file. The other two are potential Brutus figures. I think Boris will through a curve ball and appoint a woman: possibly Esther or Priti.
The idea of Boris as PM with one of those as Chancellor is terrifying.
No more or less than the Labour Party. In the case of the latter one is assured that backbenchers will restrain them. Why should one not think the same with a Johnson administration. If people believe one then they should have no issue with the latter.
It can be considered terrifying irrespective of what one thinks of Labour.
Terrifying? Terrifying is being on TWA 800 and not dying immediately. Terrifying is being homosexual in Iran and being caught. Terrifying is not Boris Johnson and a CofTheE you don’t like.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
Apparently I was nearly 6 weeks late, in one of the hottest summers on record.
I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
Apparently I was nearly 6 weeks late, in one of the hottest summers on record.
I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
Our first took 35 hours. Was just a student midwife most of the time but then suddenly by the end there was the head midwife and a doctor and others in the room. Don't know what they knew that we didn't. Doctor held his hands up and said to my wife she had to give one last push or he was going to have to get involved and she swears he had the biggest hands she had ever seen and didn't want them going anywhere near her lol.
Baby was born healthy and mother was healthy but found out afterwards there was a "true knot" in the umbilical cord so we were very lucky.
Could be that too but I can't see where Hunt gets many more votes from those eliminated today, I think most of McVey and Leadsom's votes will go to Raab or Boris and Hunt will have to share Harper's votes with Gove, Stewart, Javid and Hancock
☺
Well you're the member so I ought to defer.
But I can see Mark's support going to Jeremy - all of it.
And as for Esther and Andrea, Dominic will benefit but so I suspect will Michael.
So if Matt and Sajid pull out and get behind Rory, what does that all add up to?
Or more particularly what does it mean for Johnson?
Won’t the ERG now try to engineer a Johnson v Raab contest?
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
I think Rory will overtake Hancock and Javid in the next round. But he won't be able to catch Raab because the latter will pick up most of McVey's and Leadsom's votes.
Indeed, it could be 1 Boris, 2 Raab, 3 Hunt, 4 Gove and everyone else eliminated by this time next Tuesday
I've always thought it will be very close for second place between Hunt and Gove and possibly another candidate too.
Better in the old days when men were banned from births. Saying that I was on the boat from Barra to LochBoisdale when my daughter was born, out of touch with the world.
I never know whether it is urban myth or genuine anthropology that men were barred so that any child born with a deformity (therefore liable to slow the tribe down) could be ruthlessly smothered by the old women without the father trying to stop them.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros . So the Leave vote there isn’t going to coalesce and they have a pool now of not even 30% . Scotland is more Remain now than in 2016.
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
Perhaps you could advise on the success of Imperial Preference.
As it happens, the introduction of tariffs in 1932 did turn out to be beneficial for British industry.
Better in the old days when men were banned from births. Saying that I was on the boat from Barra to LochBoisdale when my daughter was born, out of touch with the world.
I never know whether it is urban myth or genuine anthropology that men were barred so that any child born with a deformity (therefore liable to slow the tribe down) could be ruthlessly smothered by the old women without the father trying to stop them.
In Ken Clarke’s autobiography he said when his second child was born the tradition was the second child was born at home.
He turned up at home after work and his mother-in-law told him to mow the lawn and not to come inside until she invited him.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
Joining the EU was certainly not a philosophically conservative project. It was a very radical break with all of the country's traditions.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Great post and the optimist in me agrees with it.
But the optimist in me took a beating on 23 June and 8 November 2016 and although out of intensive care and back on solids is still VERY fragile.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
Joining the EU was certainly not a philosophically conservative project. It was a very radical break with all of the country's traditions.
You overstate the position but, whatever, the politicians of the age had the good sense to manage it gradually.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
Apparently I was nearly 6 weeks late, in one of the hottest summers on record.
I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
Joining the EU was certainly not a philosophically conservative project. It was a very radical break with all of the country's traditions.
Paradoxically the same can be true of both joining and leaving.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
Joining the EU was certainly not a philosophically conservative project. It was a very radical break with all of the country's traditions.
But one that both sides of the house wanted to do...
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
Joining the EU was certainly not a philosophically conservative project. It was a very radical break with all of the country's traditions.
Paradoxically the same can be true of both joining and leaving.
I’m not sure that is correct it was widely supported by the conservatives, I seem to remember hosting ted heath for tea and buns during the yes campaign. It was the left we had to beat then.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
You are confusing a hankering for a probably unachievable past, which is conservative, with imposing a radical and immensely disruptive project upon the present, which most certainly isn’t.
Joining the EU was certainly not a philosophically conservative project. It was a very radical break with all of the country's traditions.
Paradoxically the same can be true of both joining and leaving.
I’m not sure that is correct it was widely supported by the conservatives, I seem to remember hosting ted heath for tea and buns during the yes campaign. It was the left we had to beat then.
I disagree with Sean on that too, but even if you take his view, it can still be the case that leaving after 45 years is similarly unconservative.
At a certain point something becomes an intrinsic part of what we are. No-one can draw an arbitrary line in the sand at a certain point in time and claim that no deviation is permissible.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
No, you are just implying your beliefs on what the Tory Party should be ie basically a second LD Party when ignoring the fact that most of its voters are conservatives and voted for Brexit.
Brexit is not a conservative project. This is true even if a majority of Conservative allowed themselves to be taken in by it.
Restoring national sovereignty and border control is a conservative project, given the Tories history of support for tariffs on numerous occasions not even leaving the single market and customs union can be said to be unconservative
Perhaps you could advise on the success of Imperial Preference.
As it happens, the introduction of tariffs in 1932 did turn out to be beneficial for British industry.
Yes, although I’m not sure that they would have been in the medium term, but WW2 renders that argument moot. The pre-WW1 imperial presence split the Conservative party for a chimera.
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is now a safe Labour seat. But in Cumbria - in the constituency next to Rory’s - it’s a marginal. So my vote counts there. And nice as Trudi Harrison is I’m not going to reward the Tories for what they are doing.
Were Rory to become leader I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
The Tories are doing what the financial sector did for many years: choosing the risky, the flashy, the superficial with little regard for morality or decency or trustworthiness or old-fashioned concepts such as leadership and integrity. They will end up in big trouble and, eventually, will realise that such things do matter, are indeed more important than the golden calf they have worshipped. But we will have to endure the mess first, I fear.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is now a safe Labour seat. But in Cumbria - in the constituency next to Rory’s - it’s a marginal. So my vote counts there. And nice as Trudi Harrison is I’m not going to reward the Tories for what they are doing.
Were Rory to become leader I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
The Tories are doing what the financial sector did for many years: choosing the risky, the flashy, the superficial with little regard for morality or decency or trustworthiness or old-fashioned concepts such as leadership and integrity. They will end up in big trouble and, eventually, will realise that such things do matter, are indeed more important than the golden calf they have worshipped. But we will have to endure the mess first, I fear.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.
I think Rory will overtake Hancock and Javid in the next round. But he won't be able to catch Raab because the latter will pick up most of McVey's and Leadsom's votes.
Indeed, it could be 1 Boris, 2 Raab, 3 Hunt, 4 Gove and everyone else eliminated by this time next Tuesday
I've always thought it will be very close for second place between Hunt and Gove and possibly another candidate too.
But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.
Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.
Wasn't it aimed at Farage?
It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.
It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.
Quite right.
I think he was being ironic.
Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).
I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.
How has SeanT cleansed his posts? He may have asked OGH and co to remove them, but the Internet's more complex than that. I'm intrigued how it might be 'expensive'.
You can pay people to do it. Online reputation management services aka online reputation services are companies that remove or mask personal details. It's easier in Europe due to the right-to-be-forgotten. I know how to delete my history and all the other gubbins but for a proper job I would get a firm in, and they are expensive.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Boris gets the Tories to 20% in Scotland from just 16% now and cuts back the Brexit Party as in the rest of the country.
Boris sweeps up seats from Wolverhampton to Bolsover, to Barrow to Stoke and the Muslim vote is concentrated in the inner cities, with the Leave vote largely united behind Boris and the Brexit Party falling back they could not stop the Boris onslaught in industrial towns and rural areas given less than 10% is Muslim.
Boris wins back a handful of seats in London too like Kensington and Battersea
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.
No he can't - Boris can try to call a general election but he needs 66% of Parliament (or 434 MPs) to agree - so you could just ensure people weren't around. The other option would be to VoNC himself which requires Corbyn to go along with it as only he can call a VoNC and Nigel would have a field day with that...
I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is now a safe Labour seat. But in Cumbria - in the constituency next to Rory’s - it’s a marginal. So my vote counts there. And nice as Trudi Harrison is I’m not going to reward the Tories for what they are doing.
Were Rory to become leader I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
You are possessed with Boris and opinion polls.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West, while seats will be lost in Scotland but depending on how Boris can convince the fishing communities he will get us out of the CFP. As far as Wales is concerned the effect may be neutral
So overall minority conservative government with most seats but not a majority
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.
No he can't - Boris can try to call a general election but he needs 66% of Parliament (or 434 MPs) to agree - so you could just ensure people weren't around. The other option would be to VoNC himself and Nigel would have a field day with that...
I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...
So Corbyn u turns on a general election and looks pathetically weak and if he tries and blocks Brexit too Boris can just watch his ratings soar with voters in Labour Leave seats and if Corbyn dithers Labour voters drift to the LDs.
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
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Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
That's based on that one dodgy Comres poll isn't it? You're pinning a lot of hope on Johnson's pulling power. I think he is going to be a huge disappointment come 31st October. That's why he might risk a GE before then. High stakes! I have money on an October GE at decent odds.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Boris gets the Tories to 20% in Scotland from just 16% now and cuts back the Brexit Party as in the rest of the country.
Boris sweeps up seats from Wolverhampton to Bolsover, to Barrow to Stoke and the Muslim vote is concentrated in the inner cities, with the Leave vote largely united behind Boris and the Brexit Party falling back they could not stop the Boris onslaught in industrial towns and rural areas given less than 10% is Muslim.
Boris wins back a handful of seats in London too like Kensington and Battersea
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is ner I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
You are possessed with Boris and opinion polls.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West, while seats will be lost in Scotland but depending on how Boris can convince the fishing communities he will get us out of the CFP. As far as Wales is concerned the effect may be neutral
So overall minority conservative government with most seats but not a majority
You are often too blinkered in your opinions
My guess is a Boris majority but of Cameron 2015 levels not a landslide and I think the LDs could beat Labour in voteshare which would see Corbyn get an even worse result than Foot. So not that far apart
Won’t the ERG now try to engineer a Johnson v Raab contest?
Just the sort of 'too clever by half' scheme they would be attracted to.
I find it interesting how so many of the Brexiter Tory MPs prefer Johnson to Raab despite it being obvious that Raab is the true believer in the noble cause.
Is it because their main concern is hanging on to their seats do you think?
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.
No he can't - Boris can try to call a general election but he needs 66% of Parliament (or 434 MPs) to agree - so you could just ensure people weren't around. The other option would be to VoNC himself which requires Corbyn to go along with it as only he can call a VoNC and Nigel would have a field day with that...
I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...
I know we have discussed this before - but I cannot see any way Corbyn could refuse the chance of an election. It would be such an odd look.
His whole shtick is that the Tories are evil kitten-smashers and must be chased out of power TODAY! So now he turns around and says Tories are evil kitten-smashers who must be chased out of power at some later time, this is a bit early. uh, they can carry on smashing kittens for a while, fine by us, let's have a prosecco?
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
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Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
That's based on that one dodgy Comres poll isn't it? You're pinning a lot of hope on Johnson's pulling power. I think he is going to be a huge disappointment come 31st October. That's why he might risk a GE before then. High stakes! I have money on an October GE at decent odds.
No, based on YouGov too, even Survation has had Boris doing best for the Tories v Labour in the past.
Won’t the ERG now try to engineer a Johnson v Raab contest?
Just the sort of 'too clever by half' scheme they would be attracted to.
I find it interesting how so many of the Brexiter Tory MPs prefer Johnson to Raab despite it being obvious that Raab is the true believer in the noble cause.
Is it because their main concern is hanging on to their seats do you think?
In a Boris v Raab contest Boris would be the moderate yes
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
It is not inconceivable that all the other candidates could withdraw, as happened in 2016. It would still be in Johnson's interest in terms of strengthening his authority to ask the 1922 to declare him leader such that he was able to take over as PM and start proper preparations for leaving on 31st October but to request that they also instigate a confirmatory ballot of members.
When she hit the rocks after 2017, May's authority was weakened by the absence of a members' ballot.
In all the talk of a 2019 election the notion than TBP bubble will somehow be quickly burst is wide of the mark. If the Faragists really trusted Boris why did UKIP field a candidate against him in Uxbridge in 2017? Boris no doubt will recapture some of the lost vote but not all by any means. Another hung parliament may well follow.
YouGov has the Brexit party still winning 13% v a Boris led Tories ie UKIP 2015 levels but Boris like Cameron still winning a small overall Tory majority.
And that's before campaigning begins. I really, really don't see Boris winning a majority.
Equally I don't see the time to have an election and still leave on October 31st unless Boris goes for an election in late July, early August at the very latest...
And if Boris has to change the October 31st date the Tories are toast.
Does an election in August change the polling much? Are certain groups more likely to be away? Does in term/out of term for university matter?
No way will there be a general election during school holidays from late July to early September. It would play very badly if a large section of voters are away on holiday.
That's based on that one dodgy Comres poll isn't it? You're pinning a lot of hope on Johnson's pulling power. I think he is going to be a huge disappointment come 31st October. That's why he might risk a GE before then. High stakes! I have money on an October GE at decent odds.
The trouble with Boris at the moment is he isn't even any good at the things he is good at. There was me thinking he is a shit but he is telegenic and quick thinking as feck and couldn't lose a TV debate if he tried; but on that front he turns out to be another Theresa May, with bigger tits. So what is he for?
I think the "Boris isn't liked" line runs the risk of making the same error people did with Corbyn in 2017. Amongst politics affectionados, Boris isn't popular, but I think he does have an appeal to a number of people in the country whom the Tories wouldn't otherwise reach. That's not to say that will definitely stay the same if (when?) he is PM, but we have to be careful not to be an echo chamber. A lot of posters on here (myself included) thought Corbyn would lead Labour to disaster in 2017, but there were people out there who thought a lot of what he was proposing made sense.
Comments
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
Boris needs to balance his team or it will look male dominated
So:
4. Michael
3. Dominic
2. Jeremy
1. Alexander
They may be in the commonwealth but we're still the former imperial power.
Why would India want a special relationship with Britain? They're much more bothered about the US and China? What exactly are we going to offer them that they can't get elsewhere?
(I have no idea why they didn't do a Cesarean).
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
We don't need tokenism we need competence. We need the best person for the job whoever they may be.
Liz Truss could be it. But if she is it should be because of her talents and competence not her gender.
Well you're the member so I ought to defer.
But I can see Mark's support going to Jeremy - all of it.
And as for Esther and Andrea, Dominic will benefit but so I suspect will Michael.
So if Matt and Sajid pull out and get behind Rory, what does that all add up to?
Or more particularly what does it mean for Johnson?
I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2012/may/03/problem-behaviour-babies-born-late
Baby was born healthy and mother was healthy but found out afterwards there was a "true knot" in the umbilical cord so we were very lucky.
Won’t the ERG now try to engineer a Johnson v Raab contest?
He turned up at home after work and his mother-in-law told him to mow the lawn and not to come inside until she invited him.
But the optimist in me took a beating on 23 June and 8 November 2016 and although out of intensive care and back on solids is still VERY fragile.
At a certain point something becomes an intrinsic part of what we are. No-one can draw an arbitrary line in the sand at a certain point in time and claim that no deviation is permissible.
We can only hope
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201
Lab 292
LD 34
Brex 43
Green1
PC 4
SNP 57
NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.125574963
Question: why are bets still being traded on Leadsom?
What I'm less happy about is the notion of Sandy as PM. Utter charlatan.
Boris sweeps up seats from Wolverhampton to Bolsover, to Barrow to Stoke and the Muslim vote is concentrated in the inner cities, with the Leave vote largely united behind Boris and the Brexit Party falling back they could not stop the Boris onslaught in industrial towns and rural areas given less than 10% is Muslim.
Boris wins back a handful of seats in London too like Kensington and Battersea
The other option would be to VoNC himself which requires Corbyn to go along with it as only he can call a VoNC and Nigel would have a field day with that...
I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...
Not that we had a choice, or anything.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West, while seats will be lost in Scotland but depending on how Boris can convince the fishing communities he will get us out of the CFP. As far as Wales is concerned the effect may be neutral
So overall minority conservative government with most seats but not a majority
You are often too blinkered in your opinions
Stewart is, I agree, ridiculously short.
Edit: And contractual obligations, unless you're a "don't pay them a penny of that 39 billion" believer.
I find it interesting how so many of the Brexiter Tory MPs prefer Johnson to Raab despite it being obvious that Raab is the true believer in the noble cause.
Is it because their main concern is hanging on to their seats do you think?
His whole shtick is that the Tories are evil kitten-smashers and must be chased out of power TODAY! So now he turns around and says Tories are evil kitten-smashers who must be chased out of power at some later time, this is a bit early. uh, they can carry on smashing kittens for a while, fine by us, let's have a prosecco?
Good luck with that.
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
It is not inconceivable that all the other candidates could withdraw, as happened in 2016. It would still be in Johnson's interest in terms of strengthening his authority to ask the 1922 to declare him leader such that he was able to take over as PM and start proper preparations for leaving on 31st October but to request that they also instigate a confirmatory ballot of members.
When she hit the rocks after 2017, May's authority was weakened by the absence of a members' ballot. No way will there be a general election during school holidays from late July to early September. It would play very badly if a large section of voters are away on holiday.
https://inews.co.uk/news/bbc-brexitcast-podcast-to-become-weekly-tv-show-in-place-of-andrew-neils-this-week/