Amazing the non-reaction to this story vs Danny Baker ill-considered tweet. Baker was top of the BBC news and Persona non grata within the day, Brand not a mention.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
If the Chinese f**k up Hong Kong, they really are idiots.
We should never have given it back.
Not that we had a choice, or anything.
Water.
Edit: And contractual obligations, unless you're a "don't pay them a penny of that 39 billion" believer.
Yes, and if we'd had the New Territories in perpetuity and no massive humongous Red Army breathing down our necks with an autocratic Government backing it up it'd have stayed British, like a Far East Gibraltar.
There are still millions of British nationals (overseas) living there and few of them wanted to return to China, and the majority to stay self-governing in the British Commonwealth.
A referendum have given a very clear answer to that effect, but.. real politik.
I think Betfair punters are getting it wrong again, by putting Stewart at 21 and Raab at 55. Raab is still more likely to get more votes than Stewart in the next round IMO.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
If that really happened, Boris would just be coronated
CROWNED DAMMIT
Push!
I can see the baby's head!
You come near me again and I'm cutting your balls off!
Just a little more, just a little more! Puuuuush!
YOU'RE NOT DOING THE PUSHING DAMMIT!
AAAAAAGH!
waaaah!
I’m getting flashbacks.
Mrs J had a near 24-hour labour with our little-un (apparently, one of the consequences of being a runner means that her pelvic floor was a little too strong). During the worst of that time, 'Independence Day' was on the TV in the room.
Even a still image from that film makes her go white. She liked it before, now she just cannot watch it.
Over 24 hours for us.
My wife’s blood pressure went sky high and two doctors were called in.
Whilst that went on I’d already crashed out asleep on the floor. I woke up afterward (but before the baby was born).
These birthing stories are intense. As a youngest, and small, child, I like to think my mother was very grateful I was born in less than an hour as a result.
Apparently I was nearly 6 weeks late, in one of the hottest summers on record.
I wasn't too many days off the record gestation. But hey, I was comfortable, everythign on tap - what's the problem? And I probably have some elephant DNA.....
Hammond's desperately trying to stay relevant (like TM and her carbon neutral announcement yesterday) but the tide has already gone out on him.
He's yesterdays man...
Yes, I suspect Raab, Javid or Hunt will end up Boris' Chancellor
Utterly stupid if so. It needs to be one of Liz Truss or Andea Leadsom, even Amber Rudd.
Boris needs to balance his team or it will look male dominated
I have a bet on Truss. She has some decent experience. And Boris announcing first female CoE would appeal to him.
The tories are in credit enough on this issue (two PMs and one World Cup, only without the WC) that they can get away with an all male line up at least for a bit.
A Laura Kuenssberg host or something more substantial for a Thursday night like Andrew Neil.
Hopefully Portillo and Alan Johnson and that nice Lib Dem woman will appear occasionally to give us some intellectual insight on Laura’s new late night offering?
But I Can’t see this Brexitcast show ruining for 18 years like This week has - but who knows with Brexit!
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
That's based on that one dodgy Comres poll isn't it? You're pinning a lot of hope on Johnson's pulling power. I think he is going to be a huge disappointment come 31st October. That's why he might risk a GE before then. High stakes! I have money on an October GE at decent odds.
No, based on YouGov too, even Survation has had Boris doing best for the Tories v Labour in the past.
Nothing like the ComRes poll! But you are right. It was based on those earlier polls that I agreed with you that Boris was the next PM and backed him substantially at good odds. He's still going to disappoint many of his supporters come 31st October.
Their stupidity is our gain, as far as betting opportunities are concerned.
I can only assume that some punters don't understand the selection process, and are assuming Rory Stewart will somehow be going before the members regardless of the facts.
But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.
Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.
Wasn't it aimed at Farage?
It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.
It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.
Quite right.
I think he was being ironic.
Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).
I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.
How has SeanT cleansed his posts? He may have asked OGH and co to remove them, but the Internet's more complex than that. I'm intrigued how it might be 'expensive'.
You can pay people to do it. Online reputation management services aka online reputation services are companies that remove or mask personal details. It's easier in Europe due to the right-to-be-forgotten. I know how to delete my history and all the other gubbins but for a proper job I would get a firm in, and they are expensive.
Thanks. I'm intrigued about how such services work.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.
No he can't - Boris can try to call a general election but he needs 66% of Parliament (or 434 MPs) to agree - so you could just ensure people weren't around. The other option would be to VoNC himself which requires Corbyn to go along with it as only he can call a VoNC and Nigel would have a field day with that...
I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...
I know we have discussed this before - but I cannot see any way Corbyn could refuse the chance of an election. It would be such an odd look.
His whole shtick is that the Tories are evil kitten-smashers and must be chased out of power TODAY! So now he turns around and says Tories are evil kitten-smashers who must be chased out of power at some later time, this is a bit early. uh, they can carry on smashing kittens for a while, fine by us, let's have a prosecco?
Good luck with that.
Yes. Jezza is 70 and he knows he is on borrowed time with the kids who are beginning to rumble the magic grandpa crap as he sits on his fence.
But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.
Ah, Tories are evil so Brand can say what she wants? OK.
Wasn't it aimed at Farage?
It doesn't matter who the acid, or the acid remark, was aimed at. Remarks like that, even by a 'comedian' are, especially in the current situation, DAMN' SILLY.
It was also not funny. Anvils are funny: you can drop anvils on somebody and it's funny. Or frying-pans: as Vic and Bob demonstrated, accompanied by a "boiiing!" sound. You can take refuge in ad-absurdum: so "skinned and thrown to the pirhanas" But not acid. Too close to the bone.
Quite right.
I think he was being ironic.
Torturing people particularly slowly to death is also a fun, wholesome and kid-friendly subject (see under London Dungeon).
I wasn't being ironic. Humour is a difficult subject to get right and I try not to give accidental offence (deliberate offence is a different matter), which is why my analogies tend to the over-wrought and over-the-top. @SeanT 's approach of cleansing one's past posts is a good approach but is expensive and time consuming. So for the past few months I've been either toning it down or going deliberately over the top in the hope that when Mr Journo or Mr Psycho goes thru my past posts it reduces the chances of a career-ending faux-pas.
How has SeanT cleansed his posts? He may have asked OGH and co to remove them, but the Internet's more complex than that. I'm intrigued how it might be 'expensive'.
You can pay people to do it. Online reputation management services aka online reputation services are companies that remove or mask personal details. It's easier in Europe due to the right-to-be-forgotten. I know how to delete my history and all the other gubbins but for a proper job I would get a firm in, and they are expensive.
Thanks. I'm intrigued about how such services work.
Jessop!? Yeah, total wise man. Intrigued by things!
You now owe me a pound. (Also I may be able to pick up the odd few pennies from other Jessops.
On topic, I expect this will shorten further. Because Parliament is hung, however, no one is fully in control of the process. A Prime Minister might easily find his party trapped in office.
Yep - I'm really struggling to see how you could call an election between now and October 31st. And Boris is gone if October 31st passes and nowt has changed.
No, as Boris as PM can call a general election and Corbyn can hardly do anything but back it given he has been calling for an election for ages, then Boris wins a majority to deliver Brexit, Deal or No Deal before October 31st.
No he can't - Boris can try to call a general election but he needs 66% of Parliament (or 434 MPs) to agree - so you could just ensure people weren't around. The other option would be to VoNC himself which requires Corbyn to go along with it as only he can call a VoNC and Nigel would have a field day with that...
I actually suspect there is little risk for Labour saying no to a general election once you hit September - there just isn't time to hold an election and react to the result...
I know we have discussed this before - but I cannot see any way Corbyn could refuse the chance of an election. It would be such an odd look.
His whole shtick is that the Tories are evil kitten-smashers and must be chased out of power TODAY! So now he turns around and says Tories are evil kitten-smashers who must be chased out of power at some later time, this is a bit early. uh, they can carry on smashing kittens for a while, fine by us, let's have a prosecco?
Good luck with that.
It's really quite simple. From September onwards Corbyn can legitimately state that there needs to be a small extension due the timing of the election and the approaching October 31st deadline.
Boris then either gets an extension (at which point Nigel is going to destroy him) or he fails to get one but the EU isn't going to mind another 2 month delay for a proper final result so he will get one. Then there will be an election - but Corbyn with any sense will ensure its on November 7th to ensue maximum harm...
So the only way to escape that is for Boris to try and go for an election in July as soon as he's elected - and that would then be on September 12th.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Boris gets the Tories to 20% in Scotland from just 16% now and cuts back the Brexit Party as in the rest of the country.
Boris sweeps up seats from Wolverhampton to Bolsover, to Barrow to Stoke and the Muslim vote is concentrated in the inner cities, with the Leave vote largely united behind Boris and the Brexit Party falling back they could not stop the Boris onslaught in industrial towns and rural areas given less than 10% is Muslim.
Boris wins back a handful of seats in London too like Kensington and Battersea
I hope someone is writing all this nonsense down?
That’s so funny ! I’m afraid HYUFD has become irrationally obsessed with one poll . I’m hoping another one from a different pollster will come out soon just so we can move on from that bleeding Comres poll!
Their stupidity is our gain, as far as betting opportunities are concerned.
I can only assume that some punters don't understand the selection process, and are assuming Rory Stewart will somehow be going before the members regardless of the facts.
And then somehow assuming even if he did the members would vote for him ...
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Boris gets the Tories to 20% in Scotland from just 16% now and cuts back the Brexit Party as in the rest of the country.
Boris sweeps up seats from Wolverhampton to Bolsover, to Barrow to Stoke and the Muslim vote is concentrated in the inner cities, with the Leave vote largely united behind Boris and the Brexit Party falling back they could not stop the Boris onslaught in industrial towns and rural areas given less than 10% is Muslim.
Boris wins back a handful of seats in London too like Kensington and Battersea
I hope someone is writing all this nonsense down?
That’s so funny ! I’m afraid HYUFD has become irrationally obsessed with one poll . I’m hoping another one from a different pollster will come out soon just so we can move on from that bleeding Comres poll!
I do think the next GE will see a return to a degree of anti-Tory tactical voting, which none of the models factor in.
In LD v Tory marginals maybe, less so in Tory v Labour marginals unless Corbyn commits to EUref2
As a centre-right Remainer in a Tory v Labour marginal, I would probably vote Labour again if there were an election this year, regardless of their fence-sitting. If the Brexit Party split the Tory vote then I’d vote Lib Dem.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
Oh to be rid of the useless Marcus Fysh
Don't tell me Anne Main of Expenses Scandal fame is finally to get her come-uppance!
Brilliant article on Johnson in June edition of the New Yorker.
One quote:
In 1988 Johnson contributed a chapter to "The Oxford Myth", a book of essays edited by his sister Rachel, in which he emphasised the importance of cultivating adoring followers. "The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge" Johnson wrote.
Potential stooges watch out!
EDIT: Another quote:
Johnson hates choosing between things, even right and wrong. "I want to have my cake and eat it" sums him up.
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I too am in the Lib Dem camp though in London it makes no difference as my constituency is ner I’d look at them again. But I’m not holding my breath. He is wonderfully old-fashioned, and I mean that as a compliment.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The Brexit Party are at take-off point in terms of number of seats. Small increases in share translate into large increases in number of seats. They are crippling the Tories and the LibDems are eating them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
You are possessed with Boris and opinion polls.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West, while seats will be lost in Scotland but depending on how Boris can convince the fishing communities he will get us out of the CFP. As far as Wales is concerned the effect may
My guess is a Boris majority but of Cameron 2015 levels not a landslide and I think the LDs could beat Labour in voteshare which would see Corbyn get an even worse result than Foot. So not that far apart
Underestimating Corbyn again, will they never learn
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
Well apparently if you want to be a candidate for leader of the Conservative party (and de facto the Prime Minister) you now have to pay the Conservative Party £150,000 for the privilege
I do think the next GE will see a return to a degree of anti-Tory tactical voting, which none of the models factor in.
What about the 40% Labour got last time was not tactical voting.
Yes plenty was; at that time those voters blamed the Cons for Brexit. I think since then many will have reconciled themselves to a sensible Brexit only to find their party has been taken over by the lunatics so will stay.
But in addition there might be Labour voters who didn't like Jezza and so probably abstained last time but who, as Labour supporters after all, dislike Boris a whole lot more and hence would come out to vote Lab this time.
Bozo might have beaten Livingstone to be mayor of London but this isn’t the great victory it’s made out to be. At the time Bozo came across as a Liberal conservative not a Trump poodle and his larger than life personality is something that might have attracted quite a few Londoner’s . And also Livingstone was a very divisive character .
The Tories keep pushing he’s a winner line but that was then before he turned into mini Trump , we’re also told that apparently the public like him which isn’t based on reality .
A minority like him , the rest despise him .
If you’re a Scottish Tory MP you’re going to be in big trouble because the third of SNP supporters who voted Leave can’t stand him , they won’t be lining up to back him because he supports Brexit and even though the BP came second they were miles behind on 16% at the Euros .
A vote for Bozo is effectively P45 s for the majority of Scottish Tories .
Most of London hates him aswell , quite a few Tories are on very slim majorities there. London Tories and those in the cities are quite a bit different to the Shire Empire 2.0 brigade .
The Tories hope to mop up in the Midlands and the north , forgetting that the Muslim population is key in at least 38 marginals . Good luck selling Bozo on the doorstep there .
The Telegraph publishes one poll that suggests Bozo is the next Messiah , ignoring some key issues , name recognition and a campaign hasn’t even started .
Bozo doesn’t like scrutiny hence his current bunker routine but opposition parties have a huge array of issues to target him on come an election campaign .
Boris gets the Tories to 20% in Scotland from just 16% now and cuts back the Brexit Party as in the rest of the country.
Boris sweeps up seats from Wolverhampton to Bolsover, to Barrow to Stoke and the Muslim vote is concentrated in the inner cities, with the Leave vote largely united behind Boris and the Brexit Party falling back they could not stop the Boris onslaught in industrial towns and rural areas given less than 10% is Muslim.
Boris wins back a handful of seats in London too like Kensington and Battersea
No, based on YouGov too, even Survation has had Boris doing best for the Tories v Labour in the past.
They all show Johnson getting a lower share of the vote than May got in 2017.
And all polls show Labour getting way lower than they got in 2017.....
Yougov had Labour on 23% in April 2017 and over 20% behind the Tories. Some polls now have Labour at 27% and generally several points ahead of the Tories. Peterborough last week was a far better result for them than Copeland in late February 2017 and represented a 4% swing from Con to Lab.
Can’t see how Boris is going to be any more successful than May in resolving Brexit.
As Eddie Mair memorably, and rightly, said he's a nasty piece of work.
Agree. I'm a lifelong (every GE since 1983) Labour voter, firmly in the Lib-Dem camp now.
I I mean that as a compliment.
Copeland could well be a Labour gain next time as the Tory post-by election boost unwinds. Had there not been a by election in February 2017 Labour would probably retained the seat - given that the more vulnerable Barrow seat was held.
The Tories would hold Copeland and gain Barrow as well on the current polling with Boris as leader
Current polling has stabilised a bit. The EMA is showing:
Con 22.8%, Lab 26.7%, LD 17.2%, Brex 21.2%
Con 201 Lab 292 LD 34 Brex 43 Green1 PC 4 SNP 57 NI 18
Lab 34 short of an overall majority on a share of less than 27%.
The g them from the other side.
Yes but that is without Boris, with Boris the Brexit Party falls back dramatically and the LDs are neck and neck with Labour for second behind the Tories
You are possessed with Boris and opinion polls.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West, while seats will be lost in Scotland but depending on how Boris can convince the fishing communities he will get us out of the CFP. As far as Wales is concerned the effect may
My guess is a Boris majority but of Cameron 2015 levels not a landslide and I think the LDs could beat Labour in voteshare which would see Corbyn get an even worse result than Foot. So not that far apart
Underestimating Corbyn again, will they never learn
Fans of both Corbyn and Johnson seem to assume a natural return to the top form of their goal scoring days and ignore the age and injuries they’ve picked up since then.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.
Brilliant article on Johnson in June edition of the New Yorker.
One quote:
In 1988 Johnson contributed a chapter to "The Oxford Myth", a book of essays edited by his sister Rachel, in which he emphasised the importance of cultivating adoring followers. "The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge" Johnson wrote.
Potential stooges watch out!
EDIT: Another quote:
Johnson hates choosing between things, even right and wrong. "I want to have my cake and eat it" sums him up.
Hmm
The 'Stooge' bit is uncannily reminiscent of Trump's approach. It's more familiarly understood as 'never give a sucker an even break', and certainly Donald is taking the US voters for suckers right now.
We of course are far to smart for those tricks....
Jenks, like many of us on here, thinks that Boris's Brexit plan is to hoodwink everyone into accepting Theresa's deal:
Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.
I like him too. But what sort of an idea is a 'citizens' assembly' with the ArchBish being part of that?
He's excellent, but I think he needs some friends to bounce these ideas against. It worries me that he seems to have no such friends.
Yes, not a fan of that idea either, and he is also pretty unreaslistic just in different ways, but he certainly has a strong personality and is a breath of fresh air.
Jenks, like many of us on here, thinks that Boris's Brexit plan is to hoodwink everyone into accepting Theresa's deal:
Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
Opposition parties are not obliged to support a Brexit that involves leaving a CU. That is the basis that Lab were elected. Obviously the SNP and Libs have even higher requirements.
Even with a CU most of Labour are demanding a referendum in which they would campaign to remain. It demonstrates the falsity of objections to any other deal, since clearly they would never have gone for anything.
Well, opinions change!
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.
I suspect the ten who voted for the Labour motion yesterday would be with Grieve.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.
Exactly. It passes. Then everyone laughs briefly at the second referendum lot before attention turns to negotiations for the future trade deal.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.
If the vote had been public instead of private, it would have been possible to declare Boris selected as one of the two to go forward to the members since he got at least 105 votes. You could then let the other MPs who didn't vote for Boris to vote again to choose the second person. It wouldn't be fair to let Boris supporters vote for the second candidate as well because they might vote tactically for the person they think is the weakest in order to maximise Boris's chances. But of course this isn't possible with a secret ballot because there's no definitive way of identifying the Boris supporters so they could be excluded from further rounds.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
Assuming a spartan surrender seems rather a biggie?
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.
Jenks, like many of us on here, thinks that Boris's Brexit plan is to hoodwink everyone into accepting Theresa's deal:
Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.
I think Boris Johnson's strategy is to try and get a deal, but then pivot towards no deal, then blame Parliament when it blocks him for doing no deal.
But how does he get any kind of deal that is significantly different from May's deal? The EU won't wear it. And if he tries sleight of hand, Farage calls him out.
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
Cheadle gain from CON : Mary Robinson Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton Wells gain from CON : James Heappey Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
Want to bet a gold sovereign on Kevin Foster losing Torbay to the LibDems?
In Colchester and Wimbledon Labour are the main challengers based on the 2017 results.
Not based on the Euros though!
The EU elections have never been taken seriously. Last week's Peterborough by election came up with a very different result to what had been implied but two weeks earlier. Some were even predicting that Labour would finish in third place!
It opens quite clearly that 'the prorogation of parliament is a prerogative act of the Crown.
In terms of procedure this is either by a commission (preceded by a proclamation) or by a proclamation alone. The Queen may issue a proclamation giving notice of her intention that parliament shall meet for the dispatch of business on any date afte rthe date of the proclmation, and parliament then stands prorogued to that day, notwithstanding the previous prorogation.
Those are just random snippets (which, regretfully, now everyone will be able to view) but in any case I don't think the main objection is the legality of any prorogation.
If Johnson tries to get a deal through before October, the ERG all vote for it but Grieve, Labour, whatever Chuka and Soubry’s bunch of no marks are called and the others who were elected in 2017 on a mandate to deliver Brexit don’t and it doesn’t pass, whose fault will it be?
What are the stats? I thought the Soubry lot going had been counted in the three seat majority. So that's Grieve plus who else? I think every other Tory plus the DUP vote yes plus what, a handful (no more) Lab MPs? I think it passes.
Here’s hoping 🤞🏻
What deal will he try to get through? The one and only on the table or the one delivered by storks?
My view is that if Boris becomes PM he will gain TBP voters and win seats in large parts of non metropolitan England but excluding parts of the South. The Lid Dems are likely to decimate labour and the conservatives in London and the South West
Boris is popular in the SW. And the LibDems still have a long way to claw back voters who have returned to Labour here.
I think St Ives will fill to the Yellow Peril, almost irrespective. They might also hold/gain Totnes if Sarah Wollaston is the candidate.
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.
Jenks, like many of us on here, thinks that Boris's Brexit plan is to hoodwink everyone into accepting Theresa's deal:
Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.
I think Boris Johnson's strategy is to try and get a deal, but then pivot towards no deal, then blame Parliament when it blocks him for doing no deal.
But how does he get any kind of deal that is significantly different from May's deal? The EU won't wear it. And if he tries sleight of hand, Farage calls him out.
Snookered, mate.
No, that's exactly why the real plan is to pivot to no deal all along, as he knows the EU won't wear a new deal. He doesn't have to worry about Farage calling him out, and he can tell everyone he did try.
Comments
Have I missed something?
Was shorter than Gove a few minutes ago.
Cheltenham gain from CON : Alex Chalk
Chippenham gain from CON : Michelle Donelan
Colchester gain from CON : Will Quince
Cornwall North gain from CON : Scott Mann
Devon North gain from CON : Peter Heaton-Jones
Eastleigh gain from CON : Mims Davies
Hazel Grove gain from CON : William Wragg
Lewes gain from CON : Maria Caulfield
Richmond Park gain from CON : Zac Goldsmith
Sheffield Hallam gain from LAB : Jared O Mara
Southport gain from CON : Damien Moore
St Albans gain from CON : Anne Main
St Austell and Newquay gain from CON : Steve Double
St Ives gain from CON : Derek Thomas
Sutton and Cheam gain from CON : Paul Scully
Taunton Deane gain from CON : Rebecca Pow
Thornbury and Yate gain from CON : Luke Hall
Torbay gain from CON : Kevin Foster
Truro and Falmouth gain from CON : Sarah Newton
Wells gain from CON : James Heappey
Wimbledon gain from CON : Stephen Hammond
Winchester gain from CON : Steve Brine
Yeovil gain from CON : Marcus Fysh
Of the 23 projected LibDem gains, 22 are from the Tories. 11 are in the South West.
What's her position on flogging?
Why stop there we could have drawing and quartering in public after the hanging
There are still millions of British nationals (overseas) living there and few of them wanted to return to China, and the majority to stay self-governing in the British Commonwealth.
A referendum have given a very clear answer to that effect, but.. real politik.
Hopefully Portillo and Alan Johnson and that nice Lib Dem woman will appear occasionally to give us some intellectual insight on Laura’s new late night offering?
But I Can’t see this Brexitcast show ruining for 18 years like This week has - but who knows with Brexit!
I can only assume that some punters don't understand the selection process, and are assuming Rory Stewart will somehow be going before the members regardless of the facts.
He would take a GE tomorrow.
You now owe me a pound. (Also I may be able to pick up the odd few pennies from other Jessops.
Boris then either gets an extension (at which point Nigel is going to destroy him) or he fails to get one but the EU isn't going to mind another 2 month delay for a proper final result so he will get one.
Then there will be an election - but Corbyn with any sense will ensure its on November 7th to ensue maximum harm...
So the only way to escape that is for Boris to try and go for an election in July as soon as he's elected - and that would then be on September 12th.
https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1139244410472996865?s=20
https://twitter.com/estwebber/status/1139177106267693056
She's also rather good.
https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1139153314740920320?s=19
https://twitter.com/rorystewartuk/status/1139252215842058240?s=21
One quote:
In 1988 Johnson contributed a chapter to "The Oxford Myth", a book of essays edited by his sister Rachel, in which he emphasised the importance of cultivating adoring followers. "The terrible art of the candidate is to coddle the self-deception of the stooge" Johnson wrote.
Potential stooges watch out!
EDIT: Another quote:
Johnson hates choosing between things, even right and wrong. "I want to have my cake and eat it" sums him up.
Hmm
He's excellent, but I think he needs some friends to bounce these ideas against. It worries me that he seems to have no such friends.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/13/marginal-candidates-pressure-drop-conservative-party-demand/
I knew that the Conservatives have become a bunch of crooks and tossers but didn't know that they were this brazen.
(declaration of interest: onetime member of the Conservative Party, sometime Conservative candidate in local council election)
But in addition there might be Labour voters who didn't like Jezza and so probably abstained last time but who, as Labour supporters after all, dislike Boris a whole lot more and hence would come out to vote Lab this time.
We of course are far to smart for those tricks....
Come October, the odds are on Britain being desperate for no more posturing, no more economic machismo and no more fantasies about new trade deals. It will need one almighty climbdown, in favour of some version of May’s Brexit deal. If Johnson can deploy his charm to persuade the nation and its parliament to follow where common sense and circumstance force him to go, I will be the first to cheer. That is as far as my optimism can go.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jun/13/boris-johnson-tories-labour-voters
The point remains, Labour are not obliged to support a Tory designed Brexit.
Snookered, mate.
It opens quite clearly that 'the prorogation of parliament is a prerogative act of the Crown.
In terms of procedure this is either by a commission (preceded by a proclamation) or by a proclamation alone. The Queen may issue a proclamation giving notice of her intention that parliament shall meet for the dispatch of business on any date afte rthe date of the proclmation, and parliament then stands prorogued to that day, notwithstanding the previous prorogation.
Those are just random snippets (which, regretfully, now everyone will be able to view) but in any case I don't think the main objection is the legality of any prorogation.
Beyond those, gains look tough, unless the Brexit vote is split between Con and BXP.
The LDs, though, look set to gain back many of their wealthy metropolitan and market town seats in the South East. While I think suggestions they'd get to 60 seats are fanciful, a Boris Brexit election would likely see them get somewhere north of 25 seats, and possibly as many as 40.