politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next gener
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2019 now moves to the favourite slot as year of the next general election
Chart of Betfair price movements from Betdata.io
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O/T but another "interesting" decision from the Supreme Court: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-48625914?intlink_from_url=https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business&link_location=live-reporting-story
A woman who prioritised buying food for her children over her rent was not "intentionally homeless". It was "reasonable" for her to do so.
To me this is the sort of decision that Lord Sumption has been having a go at in his Reith lectures. This isn't law, its politics. And our judges are not best placed to make political decisions.
- Snap election in September.
- Big majority for Boris.
- Second referendum in 2020.
Most seats:
Con 2.08
Lab 2.52
Overall Majority:
Con 3.65
Lab 7
We could actually no deal exit on 31 October and he would on 1 November still be talking up a second referendum.
I wonder what the response would be if a different PM suspended parliament so that they could send the Article 50 revocation letter .
The fact so many Leavers are happy to turn the UK into a dictatorship as long as they can get their deluded no deal shows once again what they really think of sovereignty .
Lansman
Livingstone
Abbott
Lewis
Even being a socialist and a Euro-federalist is good for you. Delors is still going, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jacques_Delors
As everything in politics has become so unpredictable and weird, why not him coming out of nowhere and emerging as the Stop Boris candidate who goes to the membership, just as Boris implodes?
Boris's team just needs to be average.
As has been said before, the survival of the Tory Party now depends on Brexit happening. It would be like a Labour government being elected and abolishing the NHS, or a Ukip government joining the EU. It is in the DNA.
They are pure The Thick Of It now.
EFTA is a perfectly reasonable result of a 52/48 referendum. it's not as if Norway and Switzerland are basket cases. A second referendum could provide cover for either that or remain. Personally I prefer EFTA for all the reasons Richard North has exhaustively, and exhaustingly, given. BTW it would be hard to say who hates Boris most as there are so many candidates but Dr North must be in the frame for that position.
What happens if Boris is the only person to get 33 votes in Round 2? Would he be declared winner or would top 2 still go to members?
It's not actually that far off from happening - would only need Hunt and Gove to lose a few votes.
If threshold in Round 2 had been 15% and not 10% then it easily could have happened!
He is untrustworthy, a liar, afraid of scrutiny, a bit of a bully (expecting photos of the votes for him has a hint of G. Brown-style menace ), incompetent, frivolous and is not respected. He simply is not serious or thoughtful.
His election as leader will neutralise many of the attacks that could be made against Corbyn and his move towards Brexit and even the contemplation of shutting down Parliament will alienate many of those who voted for him in the past.
If the Tories choose him it simply shows that they are no longer a serious party, that old-fashioned, sensible Conservatism is dead and that they put the interests of their own party above those of the country.
The Tories are not thinking straight. Choosing Boris is simply them indulging in a group hug. (A much more vulgar term would be more accurate but it is still early and this is a respectable site.)
I expected her to write her name in and then 'nothing has changed'.
I was ridiculing the preposterous suggestion that the EU would blockade the UK banning planes from flying, banning exports and imports. That would be a casus belli. It also won't happen.
And the ERG won’t vote for a no deal exit because it isn’t no deal enough....
It is also likely Hancock on 20 votes today and Javid on 23 will be eliminated in the next round too and fail to clear the 33 votes hurdle along probably with Stewart on 19 votes today (unless he really picks up momentum).
That leaves Boris, Raab, Hunt and Gove as the final 4 and assuming most of Hancock and Stewart's votes go to Hunt and most of Javid's votes go to Raab where Gove's votes go after he is eliminated will be decisive in determining which of Raab and Hunt faces Boris in the membership ballot runoff after the final round
https://news.sky.com/story/theresa-may-calls-on-bbc-to-explain-why-jo-brand-battery-acid-joke-was-broadcast-11741134
A few months later those were the policies of the Lib Dems and Labour, the Lib Dems polled 7.4% and Labour polled 40%.
Yes: nasty and incompetent. For all the superficial bonhomie and jolly japes persona, he is a bit like Corbyn in that respect. Corbyn seems polite and would no doubt be nice to chat to about gardening and such like. But there is an unpleasant side to him too eg not bothering to speak to Luciana Berger.
What a dreadful choice. I will not vote for either.
I am resigning myself to the fact that Britain is embarking on a serious of foolish choices which will do great harm to us. I only hope that the hole is not too deep before we start digging ourselves out of it.
Thanks. I’m on the other side of that bet.
But if May cared a bit more about the cruel elements of her Governments policy her complaints would perhaps be taken more seriously.
When she hit the rocks after 2017, May's authority was weakened by the absence of a members' ballot.