politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Get ready for the Betrayals Ahead

Great article, thank you for your thoughts and insight.

This is all correct, added to which there's the *competence* angle for the government in charge of doing it. There will be a million different things going wrong, many of which could have been mitigated by government planning, but many of which were just going to go wrong anyway. But the people who want this to happen expect everything to go pretty well, and the Corbyn people and the Farage people are going to be united in blaming everything that goes wrong on the EPIC INCOMPETENCE of this SHAMBOLIC GOVERNMENT. It doesn't help that the likely PM looks kind-of shambolic.

All of which made me think that no government would do it, but then I watched the Ken Burns documentary on Vietnam, where right from the start, all the people responsible can see that they have no workable plan and it's all likely to go horribly wrong, yet still get sucked into it by the short-term political logic...

Cycle’s leads are so text heavy.

The only thing wrong with this excellent piece is the suggestion that the Euro elections indicated popular support for No Deal. They clearly didn’t. And that’s going to be another problem for the Tories. Inflicting a No Deal Brexit on a country that doesn’t want one, even before the bad stuff actually starts happening, is the route to electoral disaster. But the Tories are in full self-destruct mode, so that’s where they’re heading once Corbyn is no longer Labour leader.

It does seem as if the total and final humiliation of the Conservative party - and Boris Johnson - will be part of the Brexit they have inflicted on us. That is the one silver lining in all of this.

As a business owner and former strong Tory supporter I am no longer planning to vote for them as a matter of right. Boris with his f**k business is not the type of guy I can vote for. The tories forget that the brexit 25% are not all ex Tory and not the whole of the Tory party. At the euros I dnv. I am concerned that the tories are dead whatever happens now.

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

edmundintokyo said:

This is all correct, added to which there's the *competence* angle for the government in charge of doing it. There will be a million different things going wrong, many of which could have been mitigated by government planning, but many of which were just going to go wrong anyway. But the people who want this to happen expect everything to go pretty well, and the Corbyn people and the Farage people are going to be united in blaming everything that goes wrong on the EPIC INCOMPETENCE of this SHAMBOLIC GOVERNMENT. It doesn't help that the likely PM looks kind-of shambolic.

All of which made me think that no government would do it, but then I watched the Ken Burns documentary on Vietnam, where right from the start, all the people responsible can see that they have no workable plan and it's all likely to go horribly wrong, yet still get sucked into it by the short-term political logic...

Ken Burn’s Vietnam is epic.

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

14 or 15/1 if your probability assessments are correct. The sums are very easy if you multiply them in reverse order, so 50% or half of 20% = 10% and a tenth of 65% is 6.5% which is somewhere between 14 and 15/1 against.

The most doubtful part is Nigel Farage standing against the PM, and costing the seat. Boris's majority last time was only 5,000 so he'd be vulnerable but we cannot rely on Farage to do the right thing.

Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.

JackW said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.

Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.

eek said:

Charles said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

IIRC it happened to Gladstone

I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong

He loses the by-election. Equally who is in charge in the mean time...

He’d be in charge in the meantime... but I don’t think he’d get a second chance if he lost the by election

ydoethur said:

Charles said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

IIRC it happened to Gladstone

I don’t believe that the PM technically needs to be in the Commons. So he’d find some safe seat, give the MP a peerage and win the by election... what could go wrong

Not while he was leader. He lost his seat in 1865, but Palmerston was still alive.

I think that would have cost him the Chancellorship had he not found another seat during the same election.

We should ask @JackW

He was a young whippersnapper back then so was probably involved

The constitutional position is clear. The Queen may appoint, on advice, anyone who enjoys the confidence of the House of Commons be they a member of the HoC or not.

This last happened in October 1963 when The Earl of Home became Prime Minister, then disclaimed his peerages and as Sir Alec Douglas Home, outwith either house of parliament was Prime Minister until he won the Kinross and West Perthshire by-election in November.

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.

Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.

That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.

DecrepitJohnL said:

JackW said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.

Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.

I can see the first happening easy as easy as well - but remember, that does also assume the Labour vote doesn't leak to the Yellows and Greens. Given their current travails that may be a bold assumption.

DecrepitJohnL said:

JackW said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.

Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.

Decapitation doesn’t work. If Boris is PM his majority will firm up and increase.

ydoethur said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

JackW said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.

Nor do I, but I can see Farage taking 5,000 votes from Boris which will be enough for a Labour win.

I can see the first happening easy as easy as well - but remember, that does also assume the Labour vote doesn't leak to the Yellows and Greens. Given their current travails that may be a bold assumption.

When it comes to getting rid of Boris, the temptation will be too much - they will stick with Labour

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.

Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.

That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.

Which is, of course, analogous to the period of a GE, when the PM, like all the rest isn't an MP!

matt said:

JackW said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

I don't see Farage winning Uxbridge or any seat in London.

While the past is no definitive guide to the future all the evidence suggests Farage actively repels more then he attracts. The Farage frotters invariably forget that.

Nevertheless he attracts rabid Tories more than he repels, which is the point.

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

OldKingCole said:

ydoethur said:

asjohnstone said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

Timetable for the new leader.

Kiss hands.
Walk straight into no confidence vote tabled by Labour.
Lose it thanks to idiotic constituency parties deselecting members.
Win election.
But lose seat because Nigel Farage stands in PM's constituency.
Peerage.

Interesting scenario, quite possible.

Who takes over as leader then ?

Another 6 week process or does Boris find a safe seat somewhere ?

Wonder what price on 3 tory PMs in 2019 ?

I reckon roughly the following

Boris to win @ 65%
Lose VONC @ 50%
Win election whilst losing seat @ 20%

I make this around a 15/1 shot, have I got this wrong ?

The last time a Tory leader lost his seat the Parliamentary Unionist Party had his deputy act as leader until he found a seat, which took six months as I recall. But that was in opposition.

There is no law saying that a PM must be in Parliament. A PM outside Parliament has happened fairly recently, albeit briefly, in 1963. I think if he won the election overall he would be given time to find a seat while remaining PM.

Alec Douglas-Home was in the Lords when he was appointed PM, not outside Parliament, although of course there was a very brief period when he was campaigning to be elected as an MP.

That 16 day period is what I was referring to, because it's the one that seems relevant here.

Which is, of course, analogous to the period of a GE, when the PM, like all the rest isn't an MP!

Home disclaimed his peerages on 24th October. He won the by-election on the 7th November but was unable to take his seat as the HoC was in recess until 12th November. So 20 days in total as Prime Minister whist not being a member of either house of parliament.

This is a great piece, hard to disagree with any part, thanks for writing it.
One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.
And I have talked to him, briefly, so I can confirm myself that he does not exude some special magic in the flesh that is absent on television.

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139057445878292480?s=19

Many bastards follow Johnson.

And it's possible he has a number of children outside wedlock as well.

Have a good morning.

MikeSmithson said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139057445878292480?s=19

He probably wouldn't know the answer to that.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
Harper 1.7
McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
Harper 1.7
McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.

I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

IanB2 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
Harper 1.7
McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.

I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

I could see Leadsom getting between 15-25 votes if she’s very lucky.

I can’t see her topping 30.

What time do PT and orange v get up? it’s quite pleasant at the moment.

IanB2 said:

I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.

Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.

IanB2 said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Who do we think will surprise on the upside / downside and / or get knocked out today?

I think the extremes - Stewart and McVey - will do better than expected. The former because pro-Remain MPs will want to keep him in the contest and continue to attract attention, the latter because I suspect the more hardline Brexit MPs will want to keep someone in the contest to ensure Boris isn't tempted to slide.

First one out - Harper the obvious one, possibly Leadsom (although she may get backers who want to keep her as a fallback if Boris explodes), Hancock possibly if his backers switch to Stewart to boost the latter's numbers.

Mark Harper is the most likely because there is no reason for supporters of other candidates to switch to him.

Betfair's pretty thin market on who will get fewest votes (Ladbrokes offers the same bet iirc) has:
Harper 1.7
McVey 3.45 (might be lent support to keep women in, and should be able to rely on her husband's mates at least in the first round)
Rory 8.4 (said to be attracting support only from non-Tories: this will test that)
Leadsom 10.5 (see McVey re women, and Boris might want to keep her in as a counterweight to Raab on his right but had to be lent sponsors even to get this far)
Hancock 12.5 (might lose supporters after his unanimously-panned launch)

A fiver would massively disrupt the market though. The problem is that whoever of those came last, it would be easy to rationalise after the event.

I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

I could see Leadsom getting between 15-25 votes if she’s very lucky.

I can’t see her topping 30.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

This is a great piece, hard to disagree with any part, thanks for writing it.
One thing I don't understand - and I mean this literally not rhetorically - is how anybody can see Johnson as in any way qualified to be Prime Minister of this country. Genuinely, it completely baffles me.

"How can this person be foerign secretary?" was what most people outside the UK were thinking as was given that post. His actions in that role showed that this scepticism was well founded.

Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

SouthamObserver said:

Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.

I'd say much the same about Chingford, as well. The Tory vote is only just under 50%, and the Conservatives did very well in local elections there (as they did in Uxbridge).

Why do I still want Brexit?

Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

IanB2 said:

SouthamObserver said:

Johnson losing Uxbridge is not going to happen. It's a Leave area and there is no third party vote for Labour to squeeze, They maxed out in 2017 and Johnson still won comfortably. The one to watch is IDS. There was a very small Remain majority in Chingford and Woodford Green, there is still an LD and Green vote for Labour to tap into and the Tory vote has been in decline there since 2010. I suspect that Johnson as PM will finally cost the Quiet Man his seat.

Yet Uxbridge, like most of Outer London, is changing fast. Its population is increasing by over 1.5% (+5,000 people) per year. Every year 1% of the population total switches from white to BAME: the White British population will shortly drop to 40% having been 43% in 2017, 48% in 2011 and 73% in 2001.

It depends on the precise circumstances in which an election took place. In a post-Brexit meltdown, he'd be gone. In a VONC pre-Brexit GE, not sure. There are factors cutting both ways, as other posters have indicated. All I'd say is there's a definite possibilty.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

JackW said:

Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

Said it below but in answer Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside, Hancock to bomb.

Agree Raab might be interesting - both Steve Hawkes and Dan Hodges suggested his hopes are fading fast.

"...Jack - Rory / McVey to surprise on the upside."

Jack always surprises on the upside.

nichomar said:

What time do PT and orange v get up? it’s quite pleasant at the moment.

They are currently on the range zeroing their weapons.

Did Trump just ensure that the Democrats will attempt to impeach him ?

‘I think I’d take it’: Trump says he might not report foreign help to FBI in 2020
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/12/trump-fbi-foreign-information-1362788


https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2019/06/trump-says-hed-accept-foreign-electoral-aid/591577/
I worried some weeks later on this site about the political and institutional risks of proceeding down that path. But Trump himself gets a vote; Trump himself forces the hands even of those who might wish to restrain the hand. He is such an institution wrecker—his instincts are so lawless—that he may simply refuse to allow Congress not to impeach him.

Confessing a willingness to collaborate with foreign spies against his domestic political opponents is a hand-forcing move. The risks of proceeding are still there. But the risks of not proceeding? Trump just forced us all to confront them in the most aggressively public possible way....

Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Much as I'd like to see a big surprise today, past form suggests that MPs tend to vote the way they say they will, even in a secret ballot. My guess is Boris will romp home, Gove and Raab will do badly. Stewart might scrape into the next round, which would be a hell of a result for him.

The rumour is that Rory and Leadsom have been lent votes to get them through. Personally I don't think campaigns should do that. If a candidate has so little support from MPs then they shouldn't be in the process, that's the point of it.

Having said which, I do hope he makes it through. I think he'd be a very useful addition to the Channel 4 debate.

Will be a much less interesting contest if Rory doesn't get through.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

JackW said:

IanB2 said:

I still suspect Leadsom will surprise on the upside, as she did the last time.

You may be correct but Leadsom needs to triple her declared support to stay in the race. I suspect those candidates who only marginally pass the threshold will drop out.

Indeed as I indicated yesterday there is a prospect that Boris and Hunt hoover up around 200 votes and the others pull out and we get to the final two by close of play today.

Not sure they will. Let's say you are one of Raab, Leadsom and McVey. You know that the membership will almost certainly go for a Leaver in the final two. If you think there is a chance Boris may be forced out of the race because of more revelations to come (Janice Turner's quotation is an open invite to journalists to ask him), why not stay in?

The entire rationale for backing Leadsom is that Gove and Boris might implode. And since all candidates will have watched this happen in 2016, there might be reluctance to withdraw too early. There might be some behind-the-scenes deal-making.

SouthamObserver said:

Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Why do I still want Brexit?

Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.

It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Why do I still want Brexit?

Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.

I wanted to Brexit too for reasons such as DavidL gives , but while it may be weakness on my part I've just given up. The cost is going to be too high and events to date have shown it will be a chaotic and incompetent mess. Yes definitely in part due to obstructive behaviour but the task is to overcome that. And so with any reasonable leaves abandoned and despite the costs of not honouring the first vote, the balance of the costs has shifted for me.

That people are now demanding the most extreme exits and many support any action so long as they get that, like prorogation, means while I would be a bitter and unhappy remainer, and wanted us to be out by now, things have moved on and we had our chance.

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.

Yes, they hate him. He wouldn't win today. A lot has changed.

JackW said:

Perhaps PBers might indicate where a surprise might occur in the vote.

It's too easy to say Gove will struggle so I'm opting for Rabb to bomb - 25-30 votes.

That's my pick for suprise. Most likely because it aligns closest with my nightmare scenario of Leadsom suprising on the upisde.

OblitusSumMe said:

SouthamObserver said:

Given how deeply unpopular Corbyn is, these are not great figures for the Tory leadership hopefuls - the better-known ones especially ...

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1139060640558014466

I thought it would be amusing to look at the London subsamples - given Johnson's tenure as Mayor of London - and it turns out that Leadsom is the only candidate (of those polled) to lead Corbyn in London, by 34-33. Johnson is behind 40-35, Gove also has a five point deficit, Hunt and Javid are just one point behind.

Usual numerous caveats apply, but you'd think the people of London would know Johnson best.

Londoners remember his posturing as a Remain Mayor.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Why do I still want Brexit?

Because I do not like the European project. I do not like more and more of our decisions being taken in an undemocratic structure by people we have no right to remove. I want my politicians to be accountable, to decide how we spend our own money, what our own priorities are. I do not approve of the gradual downgrading of the nation state. I see that as the objective of the project and the Euro as the main means of achieving this. Once national politicians are accountable for how much money is spent and what it is spent on they really are local government. I see the EZ being increasingly dominant inside the EU and pressure to join it over time. I think policy will evolve to favour the EZ bloc with its QMV to our detriment. I get it that some like our own Mr Glenn see these as a desirable end state, I don't.

None of this means that I want any unnecessary disruption in trade with the EU. I also accept that if you are going to have free unregulated trade you need common standards and regulatory equivalence at least in internationally traded goods. I accept that complete independence is a ridiculous fantasy. Cooperation on a bilateral state basis is a good thing not a trap. My objective is a UK that has a close relationship with the EU, works together on common problems but is that bit apart and has the freedom to choose its own path, recognising that such choices are not free and have consequences.

For me May's deal was and is a possible solution to this. Other solutions may exist but that is the one we have and time is pressing. A trade agreement built on the bones of that WA is likely to meet my objectives, modest as they are. As I have said on here before our relationship with the EU will always continue to evolve as it has throughout our membership. None of these choices are forever, not even leaving if the British people chose to go back in years to come. But right now we chose to leave and our political class should honour that choice.

Totally agree. The EU is not just about harmonising product standards across 27 countries.

It might surprise some to find that a lot of Remainers would agree with a lot of this. I certainly do, it's just that when the dog has fleas I prefer to take it to the vet, not shoot it - but I see why some might do the latter.

Like many I gave up on meaningful reform in the eu. It's own extremists let the mask slip and speak contempfully of those opposed to the project, so smug in superiority, and that shows how their occasional comments acknowledging concerns are crap. It's why some proponents on here focus more on the crushing inevitability of it all. Because the nice dream of the EU does not match the reality.

Sadly it's the better option given the failure of the last three years.