politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON lea
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On Betfair alone £3.5m has already been wagered on the CON leadership fight
Here is tonight’s chart showing the movement on the Betfair exchange next CON leader market where the total gambled has now topped £3.5m.
Comments
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First - Like BORIS soon.0
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So when will Boris the coward make an appearance?0
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https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?0 -
Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.1
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He's got his campaign launch tomorrow but I think he might send that dimwit Francois in his place!TheScreamingEagles said:So when will Boris the coward make an appearance?
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Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.AlastairMeeks said:
Prorogation was never a viable option and if that wasn’t already obvious Rory Stewart killed it stone dead tonight. The headbangers simply don’t have the numbers.kle4 said:
They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.MrsB said:Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.
Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far
I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.Streeter said:
People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.Casino_Royale said:
You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.AlastairMeeks said:
How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?Casino_Royale said:
Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I suault to shooting the messenger.OblitusSumMe said:
Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.Casino_Royale said:
Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?kle4 said:
Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.Richard_Nabavi said:The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.
He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
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I think you know the reason.Pulpstar said:Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.
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Perhaps instead of condescending that I did not comprehend your point, you might consider that your point was not in any way well made and was not as self evident as you thought it was, given multiple people have taken away from it what you claim was not there. It happens, believe me I know.Casino_Royale said:
Read my posts again, and try and understand what I’ve said.kle4 said:
Then why say he 'could have made that pitch for the Conservatives' and that he didn't? Seems a lot like saying he is not making a Conservative pitch.Casino_Royale said:
Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a ConservativeOblitusSumMe said:
Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.Casino_Royale said:
Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?kle4 said:
Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.Richard_Nabavi said:The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.
He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
Whatever your claimed intent, you said he did not make a pitch for the Conservatives, and are now whining that people read into that that you do not think he made a Conservative pitch.
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He appears tomorrow does he not? With some more endorsements and a lot of fancy talking laced with optimism but not much else (which is even what Rory did).TheScreamingEagles said:So when will Boris the coward make an appearance?
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Sajid Javid suggests he is John Major to Boris' Michael Heseltine
https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/conservative-leadership-contest-im-an-outsider-and-thats-what-the-tories-need-says-sajid-javid-a4164406.html0 -
Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)0
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If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.0 -
FPT
Anecdote.kle4 said:
Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.AlastairMeeks said:
The headbangers simply don’t the numbers.kle4 said:
They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.MrsB said:Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.
Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far
I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.Streeter said:
People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.Casino_Royale said:
You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.AlastairMeeks said:
How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?Casino_Royale said:
Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I suault to shooting the messenger.OblitusSumMe said:
Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.Casino_Royale said:
Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?kle4 said:
Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.Richard_Nabavi said:The shocking thing is that Rory is just making obvious, mainstream, Conservative points, clearly and without equivocation. That is shocking because we have become so inured to fudge, fantasy and extremism that the moderate, sensible voices have been cowed into silence, as indeed they have in Labour.
He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.
“Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”0 -
Is the challenge for Boris simply to match the number of declared supporters in the voting on Thursday? I imagine that would be enough to make him a near-certainty for the final two.0
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0
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FPT for @Cyclefree:
If you're interested in lesser-known places to visit, there's the Neue Galerie on 86th and 7th near the Met, has some great Klimts (including the Woman in Gold) and a Viennese style café for some sachertorte. The Rubin Museum on 17th between 6th and 7th specializes in Himalayan Buddhist art and has some amazing stuff to see. The JP Morgan Library at 36th and Madison usually has some interesting exhibitions on.Cyclefree said:
Well, the event at which I was due to speak was cancelled as it turned out it was at the building on which the helicopter crash landed yesterday. What are the odds, eh!Mysticrose said:Re. Brexit, he has said he'll support the cross party strategy to block No Deal (good man) and he talked at the end of the main speech about courage being not chasing the unicorns, the fantasies but facing reality.
I'd read that to going for something close to May's-EU deal but I could be wrong.
He's streets ahead of the other candidates and would toast Corbyn. But he won't be chosen by the lunatics who have taken over the asylum.
So have a day in NY to bum around. Have just watched Rory Stewart’s speech and his Q&A. Very impressive. The standout candidate.
If the Tories reject him they are fools. They will, I fear. They are fools.
But I hope Rory will hang on in there for the next time. There is something about him which has been lacking in far too many politicians and which we need in this country.
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Could someone perhaps explain to Boris that PMQ’s is one of the things PMs have to do and that hiding away from questions does not suggest someone with what it takes to be PM.0
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I’m happy to accept those terms - for charity?HYUFD said:
OK but £50 is my limit I am afraid and it only applies if Boris is leader, I do not see any other Tory leader getting an overall majorityAlastairMeeks said:
If you’re open to a sporting bet I’ll wager with you that the Conservatives will not get an overall majority in any general election held in 2019. Void if no election.HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
I’d be happy to make it charitable, stake of your choice up to £100.0 -
Ha. He's still canny - gave himself an out by saying he had not read the detail but was inclined to support the reported substance, which allows him to oppose it later.Gallowgate said:0 -
Thank you. The first I’ve been to. I will look into the others.rpjs said:FPT for @Cyclefree:
If you're interested in lesser-known places to visit, there's the Neue Galerie on 86th and 7h near the Met, has some great Klimts (including the Woman in Gold) and a Viennese style café for some sachertorte. The Rubin Museum on 17th between 6th and 7th specializes in Himalayan Buddhist art and has some amazing stuff to see. The JP Morgan Library at 36th and Madison usually has some interesting exhibitions on.Cyclefree said:
Well, the event at which I was due to speak was cancelled as it turned out it was at the building on which the helicopter crash landed yesterday. What are the odds, eh!Mysticrose said:Re. Brexit, he has said he'll support the cross party strategy to block No Deal (good man) and he talked at the end of the main speech about courage being not chasing the unicorns, the fantasies but facing reality.
I'd read that to going for something close to May's-EU deal but I could be wrong.
He's streets ahead of the other candidates and would toast Corbyn. But he won't be chosen by the lunatics who have taken over the asylum.
So have a day in NY to bum around. Have just watched Rory Stewart’s speech and his Q&A. Very impressive. The standout candidate.
If the Tories reject him they are fools. They will, I fear. They are fools.
But I hope Rory will hang on in there for the next time. There is something about him which has been lacking in far too many politicians and which we need in this country.1 -
AgreedAlastairMeeks said:
I’m happy to accept those terms - for charity?HYUFD said:
OK but £50 is my limit I am afraid and it only applies if Boris is leader, I do not see any other Tory leader getting an overall majorityAlastairMeeks said:
If you’re open to a sporting bet I’ll wager with you that the Conservatives will not get an overall majority in any general election held in 2019. Void if no election.HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
I’d be happy to make it charitable, stake of your choice up to £100.0 -
I maintain the theory PMQs may be why our PMs are so obsessed with GE's, because the dispatch box in front of them literally has the letters GE carved into the side facing them.Cyclefree said:Could someone perhaps explain to Boris that PMQ’s is one of the things PMs have to do and that hiding away from questions does not suggest someone with what it takes to be PM.
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CON Gain Rory the Tory !0
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The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
It would be easy for a deal to be agreed that could be ratified by the EU, Ireland and the UK if the backstop issue was removed from the Withdrawal Agreement and the can was kicked to the end of the Transition Agreement. The backstop doesn't kick in until the end of Transition at the earliest anyway so nothing would change.
However the EU and Ireland are unwilling to compromise on the backstop and apparently are entirely unconcerned about having No Deal imminently because compromise would be worse than No Deal.
I agree.1 -
If the polls change of course I might reconsider but the polling has been clear for a while now Boris is the Tories' best bet.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
Having said that I suspect Rory Stewart would poll better with Labour and LD and Green voters than Boris but how many of them would vote for a Stewart led Tory Party? A handful at most0 -
I don't, but you are correct that is the logic of their position. Like many their position argues for no deal even as they pretend no deal is horrible. At least the no dealers here and in parliament admit they are happy for that outcome.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
It would be easy for a deal to be agreed that could be ratified by the EU, Ireland and the UK if the backstop issue was removed from the Withdrawal Agreement and the can was kicked to the end of the Transition Agreement. The backstop doesn't kick in until the end of Transition at the earliest anyway so nothing would change.
However the EU and Ireland are unwilling to compromise on the backstop and apparently are entirely unconcerned about having No Deal imminently because compromise would be worse than No Deal.
I agree.0 -
Rory Rory is he really at Tory? Rory Rory is he a Lib Dem?Pulpstar said:CON Gain Rory the Tory !
https://youtu.be/8Y414KH0-fg0 -
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
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It is millions. That's a matter of fact.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?0 -
I can beat that: I had a girl in HR ask me if South Africa is in the EU.Streeter said:FPT
Anecdote.kle4 said:
Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.AlastairMeeks said:
The headbangers simply don’t the numbers.kle4 said:
They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.MrsB said:Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.
Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far
I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.Streeter said:
People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.Casino_Royale said:
You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.
Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.
“Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”
Although given the RSS conference is in Belfast this year, the funny looks the travel agent gave me did run a close second...
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My other half would make a beeline to La Boite spice shop in Hell’s Kitchen. But that is admittedly niche.Cyclefree said:
Thank you. The first I’ve been to. I will look into the others.rpjs said:FPT for @Cyclefree:
If you're interested in lesser-known places to visit, there's the Neue Galerie on 86th and 7h near the Met, has some great Klimts (including the Woman in Gold) and a Viennese style café for some sachertorte. The Rubin Museum on 17th between 6th and 7th specializes in Himalayan Buddhist art and has some amazing stuff to see. The JP Morgan Library at 36th and Madison usually has some interesting exhibitions on.Cyclefree said:
Well, the event at which I was due to speak was cancelled as it turned out it was at the building on which the helicopter crash landed yesterday. What are the odds, eh!Mysticrose said:Re. Brexit, he has said he'll support the cross party strategy to block No Deal (good man) and he talked at the end of the main speech about courage being not chasing the unicorns, the fantasies but facing reality.
I'd read that to going for something close to May's-EU deal but I could be wrong.
He's streets ahead of the other candidates and would toast Corbyn. But he won't be chosen by the lunatics who have taken over the asylum.
So have a day in NY to bum around. Have just watched Rory Stewart’s speech and his Q&A. Very impressive. The standout candidate.
If the Tories reject him they are fools. They will, I fear. They are fools.
But I hope Rory will hang on in there for the next time. There is something about him which has been lacking in far too many politicians and which we need in this country.0 -
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.0 -
Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.0 -
The backstop avoids either side using the border for leverage in trade talks - it's a two-way thing, and it's the UK the benefits the most from it, since it's the UK that has to bear the cost of maintaining order in Northern Ireland.Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.1 -
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.0 -
Cost more than 2k.viewcode said:
Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.0 -
I think its possibly a comment on clumsy use of upper.Philip_Thompson said:
It is millions. That's a matter of fact.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
The higher rate of tax is paid by millions (4.2 in June 2017, may even have crossed 5 million by now), while the additional rate, which kicks it at £150,000, was paid by just shy of 400k back then.
I don't know if more up to date numbers are out there. Must be.
Anyway, as the debate has focused on the higher rate so far, I'd give the tweet the benefit of the doubt.0 -
It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.0
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How much more?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cost more than 2k.viewcode said:
Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.0 -
"Eire" was the description of the Irish state in English for just twelve years (1937-1949). Why do so many people in Britain still use it?Streeter said:FPT
Anecdote.kle4 said:
Perhaps so, but that's immaterial to how many want to do it, or are pretending they would do it, which is just as bad.AlastairMeeks said:
The headbangers simply don’t the numbers.kle4 said:
They don't need to, several candidates are by default backing no deal, or even prorogation.MrsB said:Who gets to the last 2 depends on whether MPs vote for what's best for the country or what's best in terms of what they can as individuals personally extract from the situation.
Even then, surely they would not vote for McVey. Would they? Please tell me they haven't sunk that far
I love the UK. As frustrating as some of NI can be, it is just shorthand that exclides them unless you think someone saying they are British means they do not back the UK.Streeter said:
People don’t love the UK. They may love England, Scotland, Wales, Northern Ireland or (less an less as time goes on) Britain, but the UK? Nah.Casino_Royale said:
You appeal to the legacy of their party, their emotions, their pride and need for a winner, and their well rooted patriotism. A vision for the UK they love for the 21st Century.AlastairMeeks said:
How do you talk a death cult out of their mania?Casino_Royale said:
Bullocks. I’ve written over this thread and previous that I do think he’s a Conservative and I suault to shooting the messenger.OblitusSumMe said:
Rory does support a moderate Brexit. That you don't recognize it as such only goes to show how difficult his job is.Casino_Royale said:
Rory could have made that pitch for the Conservatives, with a moderate Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
In that case we need a new party to take over the great Conservative traditions of pragmatism, sound finances, opportunity, and respect for ourselves, for others and for our history. The Big Tent Party, anyone?kle4 said:
Conservatism is Brexit, nothing more, nothing less. That is what the massive surge to BXP has taught us.
He didn’t, so he’ll lose.
Brexit - there’s a clue in the name.
Accounts manager at work, had to invoice a firm in Belfast.
“Do we have to charge them VAT? Are they in Eire?”0 -
Yes most likely. The correct name for the 45p rate that kicks in at £150k is the “additional rate”BannedInParis said:
I think its possibly a comment on clumsy use of upper.Philip_Thompson said:
It is millions. That's a matter of fact.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
The higher rate of tax is paid by millions (4.2 in June 2017, may even have crossed 5 million by now), while the additional rate, which kicks it at £150,000, was paid by just shy of 400k back then.
I don't know if more up to date numbers are out there. Must be.
Anyway, as the debate has focused on the higher rate so far, I'd give the tweet the benefit of the doubt.0 -
0
-
Equally it's millions less than it used to be.Philip_Thompson said:
It is millions. That's a matter of fact.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..
0 -
what is the reason? it seems like a possible anomalyTheScreamingEagles said:
I think you know the reason.Pulpstar said:Third, like Leadsom in the betting for some god unknown reason.
0 -
Schroedinger's Boris.TheScreamingEagles said:1 -
I meant no one is so silly as to bet that Rory would win.viewcode said:
Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.0 -
I'm sure they'd find a way. There are only 24 hours left to stop a no deal Brexit etc etcrottenborough said:Oh. This suddenly looks serious:
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11385159680518103040 -
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
0 -
Politics between now and 31st October is certainly going to be diverting.1
-
The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.Sandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
1 -
Ireland is an EU member. Their interests areSandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
aligned.0 -
A lot of people kidding themselves about what he has promised. While him saying he will do something is no guarantee he will, those relying on him definitely doing the opposite of what he says are fooling themselves the most.rpjs said:
Schroedinger's Boris.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.eek said:
Equally it's millions less than it used to be.Philip_Thompson said:
It is millions. That's a matter of fact.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..0 -
Nevertheless they have possibly helped bring about that which they said they did not want.not_on_fire said:
Ireland is an EU member. Their interests areSandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
aligned.0 -
Our interests are not. We need to stand up for our own interests, the EU is not going to stand up for our interests.not_on_fire said:
Ireland is an EU member. Their interests areSandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
aligned.1 -
The reasoning for £80k, is that that’s what the starting point for the 40% rate would be, if it had risen with inflation since it was introduced by Lawson in (IIRC) 1988.Philip_Thompson said:
And millions of more that it was in previous years too. But either way the statement was that millions of people pay it and millions of people do. Just shows how out of touch with reality Gallowgate is FFS.eek said:
Equally it's millions less than it used to be.Philip_Thompson said:
It is millions. That's a matter of fact.Gallowgate said:https://twitter.com/matt_gillow/status/1138492573234937859
“Millions of people” ffs. How out of touch is she?
Then again you're a lefty. Not particularly keen on being in touch with facts are you?
In 2016/17 anyone earning over £43,000 was paying higher rate tax at 40%
in 2019/20 you need to earn £50,000 (outside of Scotland) to be paying higher rate tax - an increase from £46350 in 2018/19)..0 -
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?0 -
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
Ireland is an EU member. Their interests areSandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
aligned.
That’s not a reason we should agree to it.0 -
Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.rpjs said:
Schroedinger's Boris.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.Cyclefree said:It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.
0 -
Destined to be an EU colony (the words of their negotiator) until they decide otherwise.williamglenn said:
The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.Sandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
0 -
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.1 -
I know. I’ve done it. Fascinating.Foxy said:
The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.Cyclefree said:It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.
0 -
The backstop is precisely them doing that. The only reason we would possibly sign the backstop is because they are using the border as leverage.williamglenn said:
The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.Sandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
An open border on the Ireland of Ireland is not worth the backstop. Would the Republic agree to be subject to our laws which we could change and they get no representation in passing?0 -
My mother is voting for Boris in the final two. She wouldn't explain why.SandyRentool said:
Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.rpjs said:
Schroedinger's Boris.TheScreamingEagles said:
She was going to back Leadsom last time, mind you!0 -
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.0 -
21st century colonialism. Disgusting, and the people backing this call themselves "moderates".Sandpit said:
Destined to be an EU colony (the words of their negotiator) until they decide otherwise.williamglenn said:
The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.Sandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
0 -
Mid you, last time I was in NYC, I went up the World Trade Centre. It has been a while!Cyclefree said:
I know. I’ve done it. Fascinating.Foxy said:
The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.Cyclefree said:It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.
0 -
The word you are looking for is "taint". Boris the Taint. Seems apt in a GoT way.SandyRentool said:
Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.rpjs said:
Schroedinger's Boris.TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
So Fox In Socks In Ox is from Tory stock?Foxy said:
My mother is voting for Boris in the final two. She wouldn't explain why.SandyRentool said:
Simultaneously a twat and an arsehole.rpjs said:
Schroedinger's Boris.TheScreamingEagles said:
She was going to back Leadsom last time, mind you!
0 -
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.1 -
Depends on how many supplementaries you wish to ask and of course the sample size.viewcode said:
How much more?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cost more than 2k.viewcode said:
Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.0 -
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
Ireland is an EU member. Their interests areSandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
aligned.
That’s not a reason we should agree to it.0 -
Errr, the whole point of the backstop is if there isn't an agreement during the transition phase.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
It would be easy for a deal to be agreed that could be ratified by the EU, Ireland and the UK if the backstop issue was removed from the Withdrawal Agreement and the can was kicked to the end of the Transition Agreement. The backstop doesn't kick in until the end of Transition at the earliest anyway so nothing would change.
However the EU and Ireland are unwilling to compromise on the backstop and apparently are entirely unconcerned about having No Deal imminently because compromise would be worse than No Deal.
I agree.
Now, I'm not a great fan of it. But the reality is that the backstop only kicks in under two circumstances:
1. We are not able to agree an FTA with the EU
and
2. We have not implemented a system for tracking shipments away from the border
In the event the EU is not sincere in negotiating an FTA or in implementing a technical solution, then we can take the EU to the Permanent Court of Arbitration. (If they are sincere, then there is no issue, because the backstop will never kick in.) If the PCA rules in our favour, then we are free to walk with no consequences.
Alternatively, we are always free to abrogate the treaty - as the US has done with three treaties in the last 18 months.0 -
What do MPs care about most? Retaining their seats and winning.
If they conclude Rory is best placed to beat Corbyn then many will vote for him.
At the moment it's like Corbyn early in the Lab leadership - nobody thought he had a chance. But what Corbyn showed is that if you can get real momentum (ignore pun!) then things can change and they can change very rapidly.
Rory may still be a long shot but make no mistake - he could win this if he gets momentum.
In a Final vs Boris, members will also mainly be thinking about one thing - winning.0 -
Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?0
-
What is the smallest cheque I have to sign to ask two questions:TheScreamingEagles said:
Depends on how many supplementaries you wish to ask and of course the sample size.viewcode said:
How much more?TheScreamingEagles said:
Cost more than 2k.viewcode said:
Um, iirc, YouGov polls only cost about a K or two. Possibly less.kle4 said:
If a poll tomorrow showed something different will you forget how you were so certain that he would achieve that based on this poll?HYUFD said:
Nope, Boris slashes the Brexit Party to 13% with Yougov, leads Labour and the LDs by 7% and gets an overall Tory majority of 16eek said:
If Boris is VoNCed there will be an election. If Nigel stands the Tory party would still be destroyedMysticrose said:HYUFD said:
If Boris is VoNCed he will win a majority at the ensuing general election on a platform to deliver Brexiteek said:
I don't expect the Tories to be in power if Boris wins - Boris will be VoNCed before he begins or destroyed by Brexit in the way everyone will be until it's put to bedChris said:
The trouble with that is, if Johnson really screws things up, the leader of the Tories won't be in a position of power for a very, very long time.eek said:
Nope - this mess can't be solved. Rory is better off picking up the pieces after Boris has really screwed things up...OblitusSumMe said:I have no doubt that Rory is the single most impressive politician in British politics right now by a country mile. And yet. If he can't win over his fellow MPs, and then his Party members, within mere days, he will end up a big failure.
I don't buy this nonsense of running this time to prepare for the next contest. The time when he can make a difference is now. The country needs him to win.
Equally I wouldn't be surprised if Rory was leader of the Tories by this time next year...
That's by no means a given. And Boris himself might lose his seat.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1136006739864825858?s=20
Ouch.Philip_Thompson said:Where is the line on the chart for Rory the non Tory? ;-)
No one is that silly, we're not made of money.
"If Rory Stewart was leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister, which of the following parties would you vote for"
And
"If Boris Johnson was ditto"
If the Tories are vote whores, then we have to establish which of the two would attract most votes.0 -
Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of the UK if they want the withdrawal agreement?rcs1000 said:Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?
0 -
Europe cut off, storm in channel.williamglenn said:
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....
I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!
(London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
0 -
We are destined to be an EU colony regardless of what Brexit deal we get because that's the reality of the situation. We will be a small country on the edge of a super power.Sandpit said:
Destined to be an EU colony (the words of their negotiator) until they decide otherwise.williamglenn said:
The backstop prevents them from doing that because it provides a guarantee. We can always walk away from trade talks knowing that an open border on the island of Ireland will be maintained.Sandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
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The new 1WTC has a viewing gallery as well. As an employee of a WTC tenant (I'm currently looking out at the Brooklyn and Manhattan Bridges from the 60th floor of 4WTC) I believe I'm supposed to get a discount but haven't got around to doing it yet.Foxy said:
Mid you, last time I was in NYC, I went up the World Trade Centre. It has been a while!Cyclefree said:
I know. I’ve done it. Fascinating.Foxy said:
The Ellis Island museum is well worth the boat trip, and great views of the Statue of Liberty and harbour.Cyclefree said:It is a beautifully sunny day. But on such a day I really want to be in a nice garden somewhere away from traffic. NY is not ideal for that. So heading off to a museum instead.
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On a standard sample (circa 1,500 respondents) you're looking at £5k to £7k.viewcode said:
What is the smallest cheque I have to sign to ask two questions:
"If Rory Stewart was leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister, which of the following parties would you vote for"
And
"If Boris Johnson was ditto"
If the Tories are vote whores, then we have to establish which of the two would attract most votes.0 -
World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!Omnium said:
Europe cut off, storm in channel.williamglenn said:
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....
I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!
(London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)0 -
Which does not include the backstop...viewcode said:
And yet we signed the GFA...Sandpit said:
Indeed they are - against the British.not_on_fire said:
Ireland is an EU member. Their interests areSandpit said:
But the EU using the border for leverage against the U.K. is absolutely fine?williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
aligned.
That’s not a reason we should agree to it.0 -
We just have time.rpjs said:
World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!Omnium said:
Europe cut off, storm in channel.williamglenn said:
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....
I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!
(London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)0 -
Not really. UTC is controlled by the ITU in Geneva.Luckyguy1983 said:
We just have time.rpjs said:
World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!Omnium said:
Europe cut off, storm in channel.williamglenn said:
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....
I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!
(London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)0 -
Actually no - asking the people of NI is clearly simpler than asking the whole of the UK something, it is far fewer people and on a matter of less complexity (one part of the WA vs all the WA). What you mean is if it would be better to ask the people of the UK.williamglenn said:
Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of the UK if they want the withdrawal agreement?rcs1000 said:Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?
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Rory 2nd, Jezza a distance back in 3rd?rottenborough said:
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Oh, arse. Can't do it. Might have been able to afford a K, but not 5-7k. Sorry to waste your time...TheScreamingEagles said:
On a standard sample (circa 1,500 respondents) you're looking at £5k to £7k.viewcode said:
What is the smallest cheque I have to sign to ask two questions:
"If Rory Stewart was leader of the Conservatives and Prime Minister, which of the following parties would you vote for"
And
"If Boris Johnson was ditto"
If the Tories are vote whores, then we have to establish which of the two would attract most votes.
0 -
Yes.williamglenn said:
Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of the UK if they want the withdrawal agreement?rcs1000 said:Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?
We already know that the majority of the NI electorate would be happy with the backstop.
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You do, you do. Doesn't count though. I'm not even going to mention that London has other features - important stuff, that I'm sure someone somewhere will love.rpjs said:
World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!Omnium said:
Europe cut off, storm in channel.williamglenn said:
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....
I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!
(London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)
It just is, or at least it is just becoming.
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If I knew what that was, I might be impressed.rpjs said:
Not really. UTC is controlled by the ITU in Geneva.Luckyguy1983 said:
We just have time.rpjs said:
World capital eh? Ahem, all you have is the International Maritime Organization. Here in Noo Yawk we have the whole damn UN!Omnium said:
Europe cut off, storm in channel.williamglenn said:
The UK is a potential rogue state and the backstop minimises any self-harm from affecting our neighbours. That's why the EU is insisting on it.Philip_Thompson said:
Cut the bullshit, nobody believes it. If no backstop put the UK in a weaker position the EU wouldn't be so desperate to insist on it.williamglenn said:
In a withdrawal deal without a backstop, the EU can dictate terms to ensure the border stays open in the future relationship. With the backstop they can't.Philip_Thompson said:
No Deal is not better than a hypothetical deal. A deal without a backstop is a hypothetical deal, I want that hypothetical deal.eek said:
Why is No Deal better than a hypothetical deal. What exactly is No Deal in your view?Philip_Thompson said:
No deal is better than a bad deal for us too, and a bad deal for the United Kingdom wil be one that left open the possibility of using the backstop for leverage.williamglenn said:
No, it's that no deal is better than a bad deal, and a bad deal for Ireland would be one that left open the possibility of using the border for leverage.Philip_Thompson said:The logic of Ireland's positioning is that No Deal is no big deal.
So since no deal is better than lets go ahead with that.
No deal is better then a bad deal. Ireland and the EU are OK with that happening, why shouldn't we be too?
You want to put the UK in a weaker position.
I'll tolerate many things, but the idea that johnny foreigner gets to call us a rogue state....
I had such high hopes for johnny foreigner too!
(London simply is and will continue to be the world capital. It's not fair, but we almost can't be "rogue".)0 -
Arguably the simplest thing (other than not bothering with Brexit at all) would actually be to give Northern Ireland to the Republic and be done with it.rcs1000 said:Wouldn't it be simpler to ask the people of Northern Ireland if they want the backstop?
However, neither this solution nor that which you propose would be acceptable to the party holding the balance of power in the current Parliament and therefore it cannot happen, of course.0 -
British defence policy through the last 500 years was to ensure a power balance in Europe. Now thanks to the moronic Brexiteers the whole of Europe is united. Against us. There is no outcome where we eventually end up anything other than a vassal state of the EU. Even with a WTO Brexit. Geography and geopolitics dictate it.0
