politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

Pulpstar said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/PolhomeEditor/status/1138447281215197187

Be patient, the Boris campaign launch is tomorrow

The media can't wait to ask him who would win between a lion and a bear.

That's a far easier question than a 5 part No Deal question..

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Of course: parliament cannot bind the EU.

Indeed, I suspect that Boris Johnson's strategy is to be sufficiently objectionable that the EU veto any extension he asks for, therefore ensuring they get blamed for No Deal.

The danger with this strategy is that the EU does not play ball and instead grants an extension to 2022.

In my view the EU is almost certain to grant an extension. And PM Boris Johnson, regardless of macho talk at this point, will opt for that over No Deal. Ditto any other feasible PM.

I therefore think No Deal in 2019 is far less likely than the betting market implies. Happy to lay it at 4.

But Boris cannot survive as PM unless he seeks to deliver no deal. Therefore he will seek to deliver no deal - unless the EU renegotiates he has no other option if he wants to be PM.

He’s been watching Mrs M very carefully and already copying her submarine strategy. I am sure he noticed her promising something dozens of times and then not delivering, yet remaining in office. And also how difficult it is to get rid of a PM determined to stay in the chair. Likely even more difficult a second time.

The deadlines for him are far tighter, and have been shifted several times already. If he is as bright as he clearly thinks he is to be he should recognise that.

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

rcs1000 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

rcs1000 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Cicero said:

logical_song said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/euanmccolm/status/1138451422998093825

Well it worked for Vince.

That wasn't an ad hominem attack on a great officer of state.

Very poor. Bercow is absolutely right: to prorogue Parliament to ram through a no deal would put a bomb under the constitution and place the Queen in an impossible position. It is even more irresponsible that the rest of the guff from the nutcase no dealers. The Conservative party has indeed been made mad and deserves destruction.

Bercow has put multiple of his own bombs under the constitution. What's good for the goose ...

Exactly. Our turn now.

You would, I hope, have been horrified if Cameron had perogued parliament to avoid invoking Article 50.

You would have been disgusted at his behaviour. It would have been an affront to our parliamentary democracy.

Imagine for a second that No Deal then turns out to be unpleasant. How do you think history will see you?

I would have been horrified yes, as that would be ignoring the referendum result. All the comparisons you make ignore the gigantic elephant in the room, which is that this country voted in a democratic referendum to leave the EU.

Proroguing parliament to avoid implementing ref result = Bad.
Proroguing parliament to force it to do what it promised/we voted for = Good.

Hope that's simple enough to understand. And remember, breaking conventions was started by this Speaker and his cronies of Letwin and Grieve - do they expect us to just sit back and abide by rules they do not? Nah. We're going to play just as dirty now.

If the other side has broken conventions, then the solution is to make the conventions more solid, not to say "my turn to break them now."

We have a parliamentary democracy. Subverting it because it gets you the result you want will end up being used against you in the future. Do you really want that?

If this parliament will not do the democratic bidding of the people via the referendum then hold another election, and elect one that will. Don't try and subvert it.

"Being used against you in future"

Erm, that's exactly what is happening now with a bent Speaker and MPs who simply refuse point blank to accept what people voted for.

I'm genuinely starting to believe Farage will end up in Number 10.

It he's elected, good for him. That's parliamentary democracy.

bigjohnowls said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeL said:

The BBC has played a pretty cute game.

The 2015 Licence Fee settlement had four components:

- LF to start rising again in line with CPI from 2017
- BBC funding of broadband (£150m per year) to cease
- iPlayer loophole closed (ie TVL required to watch iPlayer)
- BBC to take over cost of TVL for over 75s

Factoring in household growth, putting it all together the BBC said it represented "flat cash" or a 10% real terms cut over 5 years (assuming 2% inflation for 5 years). The BBC said it was a good deal. Indeed compared to most public services a 10% real terms cut was a pretty generous result.

Whilst technically the BBC took over responsibility for the policy, there was no expectation the BBC would start charging over 75s - the whole deal was a package.

Now the BBC is going to start charging approx 65% of over 75 households - it will have done better than just about any public service other than the NHS - with almost no real terms cut in funding at all.

(to be continued)

iPlayer loophole was no such thing.

If the BBC is to be commercial and we rename the TV Licence to be a BBC Subscription Fee then iplayer being charged it makes sense.

But the TV licence is a fee to watch TV even if you don't want live BBC. The TV licence should be abolished for anyone who wants to watch TV but not BBC.

I think the licence fee and the BBC should cease to exist.

I also think that aged celebrities like Gloria, Esther and Angela arguing the Golden generation should continue to get free stuff just because they are old irrespective of their wealth is completely unrealistic in capitalist Britain.

Wait till they have to pay for their cataract operation under PM Nige.

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Of course: parliament cannot bind the EU.

Indeed, I suspect that Boris Johnson's strategy is to be sufficiently objectionable that the EU veto any extension he asks for, therefore ensuring they get blamed for No Deal.

The danger with this strategy is that the EU does not play ball and instead grants an extension to 2022.

In my view the EU is almost certain to grant an extension. And PM Boris Johnson, regardless of macho talk at this point, will opt for that over No Deal. Ditto any other feasible PM.

I therefore think No Deal in 2019 is far less likely than the betting market implies. Happy to lay it at 4.

You think Macron is bluffing? I don't. He has his political machismo and prestige to defend, and he has made No Extension a definite red line. He also strikes me as the kind of man who cares about how he is perceived.

He likes playing hard cop, which goes down well at home. But the EU doesn’t work that way; failure to understand how the EU operates has been a key weakness of you leavers.

If Macron vetoes no extension as all 27 EU nations must agree

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Of course: parliament cannot bind the EU.

Indeed, I suspect that Boris Johnson's strategy is to be sufficiently objectionable that the EU veto any extension he asks for, therefore ensuring they get blamed for No Deal.

The danger with this strategy is that the EU does not play ball and instead grants an extension to 2022.

In my view the EU is almost certain to grant an extension. And PM Boris Johnson, regardless of macho talk at this point, will opt for that over No Deal. Ditto any other feasible PM.

I therefore think No Deal in 2019 is far less likely than the betting market implies. Happy to lay it at 4.

You think Macron is bluffing? I don't. He has his political machismo and prestige to defend, and he has made No Extension a definite red line. He also strikes me as the kind of man who cares about how he is perceived.

He likes playing hard cop, which goes down well at home. But the EU doesn’t work that way; failure to understand how the EU operates has been a key weakness of you leavers.

If Macron vetoes no extension as all 27 EU nations must agree

As I said, you don’t understand how the EU operates.

Mr. Owls, the problem with capitalism is that sometimes it fails. The problem with socialism is that it always fails. And usually a lot harder than capitalism.

kle4 said:

IanB2 said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Of course: parliament cannot bind the EU.

Indeed, I suspect that Boris Johnson's strategy is to be sufficiently objectionable that the EU veto any extension he asks for, therefore ensuring they get blamed for No Deal.

The danger with this strategy is that the EU does not play ball and instead grants an extension to 2022.

In my view the EU is almost certain to grant an extension. And PM Boris Johnson, regardless of macho talk at this point, will opt for that over No Deal. Ditto any other feasible PM.

I therefore think No Deal in 2019 is far less likely than the betting market implies. Happy to lay it at 4.

But Boris cannot survive as PM unless he seeks to deliver no deal. Therefore he will seek to deliver no deal - unless the EU renegotiates he has no other option if he wants to be PM.

He’s been watching Mrs M very carefully and already copying her submarine strategy. I am sure he noticed her promising something dozens of times and then not delivering, yet remaining in office. And also how difficult it is to get rid of a PM determined to stay in the chair. Likely even more difficult a second time.

The deadlines for him are far tighter, and have been shifted several times already. If he is as bright as he clearly thinks he is to be he should recognise that.

He has confidence in his ability to wing anything and I genuinely don’t think he is calculating anything beyond what to say to get the top job right now.

The Rory Stewart launch at the South Bank looks like a revue stage.

Will @Peter_the_Punter introduce Rory with a song and dance routine from "Cabaret" ?

JackW said:

The Rory Stewart launch at the South Bank looks like a revue stage.

Will @Peter_the_Punter introduce Rory with a song and dance routine from "Cabaret" ?

What time is he due on?

IanB2 said:

HYUFD said:

IanB2 said:

Byronic said:

kinabalu said:

rcs1000 said:

Of course: parliament cannot bind the EU.

Indeed, I suspect that Boris Johnson's strategy is to be sufficiently objectionable that the EU veto any extension he asks for, therefore ensuring they get blamed for No Deal.

The danger with this strategy is that the EU does not play ball and instead grants an extension to 2022.

In my view the EU is almost certain to grant an extension. And PM Boris Johnson, regardless of macho talk at this point, will opt for that over No Deal. Ditto any other feasible PM.

I therefore think No Deal in 2019 is far less likely than the betting market implies. Happy to lay it at 4.

You think Macron is bluffing? I don't. He has his political machismo and prestige to defend, and he has made No Extension a definite red line. He also strikes me as the kind of man who cares about how he is perceived.

He likes playing hard cop, which goes down well at home. But the EU doesn’t work that way; failure to understand how the EU operates has been a key weakness of you leavers.

If Macron vetoes no extension as all 27 EU nations must agree

As I said, you don’t understand how the EU operates.

Macron blocked further extension to January 2020 last time, October is his limit unless we offer EUref2

HYUFD said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1138445876060463104?s=20

Steve Baker calls for the abolition of the monarchy and the installation of Mr and Mrs Peter Bone as "Dear Leader and Leaderene"

To be fair they only asked a question and nodded, they did not comment for or against Brexit just asked about its implications.

That said while the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh are almost certainly
Leavers and the Queen Mother was reportedly very anti EU, William and Kate are almost certainly Remainers as is Prince Charles. The age divide runs even amongst the Royals

Extraordinary insights! The evidence being what, precisely?

The Queen asking what the EU has ever done for us at a banquet, the Queen Mother saw the EU as a German plot, the Cambridges are basically young metropolitan liberals, Prince Charles is a climate change obsessive and basically a LD

I think you’ve misremembered what the Queen is reported to have said.

SandyRentool said:

bigjohnowls said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MikeL said:

The BBC has played a pretty cute game.

The 2015 Licence Fee settlement had four components:

- LF to start rising again in line with CPI from 2017
- BBC funding of broadband (£150m per year) to cease
- iPlayer loophole closed (ie TVL required to watch iPlayer)
- BBC to take over cost of TVL for over 75s

Factoring in household growth, putting it all together the BBC said it represented "flat cash" or a 10% real terms cut over 5 years (assuming 2% inflation for 5 years). The BBC said it was a good deal. Indeed compared to most public services a 10% real terms cut was a pretty generous result.

Whilst technically the BBC took over responsibility for the policy, there was no expectation the BBC would start charging over 75s - the whole deal was a package.

Now the BBC is going to start charging approx 65% of over 75 households - it will have done better than just about any public service other than the NHS - with almost no real terms cut in funding at all.

(to be continued)

iPlayer loophole was no such thing.

If the BBC is to be commercial and we rename the TV Licence to be a BBC Subscription Fee then iplayer being charged it makes sense.

But the TV licence is a fee to watch TV even if you don't want live BBC. The TV licence should be abolished for anyone who wants to watch TV but not BBC.

I think the licence fee and the BBC should cease to exist.

Who needs it when we have RT?

Two cheeks of the same arse

I was at Parliament today and saw Esther McVey and Andrew Bridgen having a tete-a-tete on the terrace. Still they could have been talking about last nights Eastenders.

kle4 said:

But Boris cannot survive as PM unless he seeks to deliver no deal. Therefore he will seek to deliver no deal - unless the EU renegotiates he has no other option if he wants to be PM.

He has to look like he is prepared to No Deal in October in order to win this contest and become PM. Then when the crunch comes I think he will opt for fudge and delay, because going through with it will be more likely to end his tenure than not doing so.

My prediction for 'unlikely but most likely' is that he ratifies the May Deal - with some cosmetic changes so it can be branded the Johnson Deal - at some point in 2020.

The only way I can see No Deal in 2019 is if he calls a GE, runs on that as a commitment, and wins it outright. I don't think he will call that election - and even if he did I think he would lose to Labour.

HYUFD said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1138445876060463104?s=20

Steve Baker calls for the abolition of the monarchy and the installation of Mr and Mrs Peter Bone as "Dear Leader and Leaderene"

To be fair they only asked a question and nodded, they did not comment for or against Brexit just asked about its implications.

That said while the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh are almost certainly
Leavers and the Queen Mother was reportedly very anti EU, William and Kate are almost certainly Remainers as is Prince Charles. The age divide runs even amongst the Royals

Extraordinary insights! The evidence being what, precisely?

The Queen asking what the EU has ever done for us at a banquet, the Queen Mother saw the EU as a German plot, the Cambridges are basically young metropolitan liberals, Prince Charles is a climate change obsessive and basically a LD

You've got to remember what an enormous Monty Python fan she is.

Stereotomy said:

kle4 said:

rcs1000 said:

If the other side has broken conventions, then the solution is to make the conventions more solid, not to say "my turn to break them now."

We have a parliamentary democracy. Subverting it because it gets you the result you want will end up being used against you in the future. Do you really want that?

If this parliament will not do the democratic bidding of the people via the referendum then hold another election, and elect one that will. Don't try and subvert it.

Agreed. This idea that it is a good idea to constitutionally mess around because someone else did it first is not only very childish logic, it is an every escalating conflict which ends poorly for everyone. I am amazed people are willing to go down such a route while saying they care about more than just a single issue, as I would hope they do.

This is pretty much the reasoning the Dems use in the US, whereas the GOP do whatever gives them an advantage. Guess who's come out the better.

Regardless, if people are prepared to be just as shitty as they claim their opponents are, then they are equally as deserving of contempt.

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

But Boris cannot survive as PM unless he seeks to deliver no deal. Therefore he will seek to deliver no deal - unless the EU renegotiates he has no other option if he wants to be PM.

He has to look like he is prepared to No Deal in October in order to win this contest and become PM. Then when the crunch comes I think he will opt for fudge and delay, because going through with it will be more likely to end his tenure than not doing so.

My prediction for 'unlikely but most likely' is that he ratifies the May Deal - with some cosmetic changes so it can be branded the Johnson Deal - at some point in 2020.

The only way I can see No Deal in 2019 is if he calls a GE, runs on that as a commitment, and wins it outright. I don't think he will call that election - and even if he did I think he would lose to Labour.

I just don't think he can fudge and delay even if he wants to try it. I think he has boxed himself in, the EU have decided they will not cosmetically budge, and therefore he will try for a GE rather than delay for any other reason. I think that explains a lot of his support, because plenty of MPs who may not back no deal think that a GE is pretty inevitable as nothing else will pass and no deal will not be allowed, therefore they need to maximise their chances of holding the seats, which is under Boris.

Hunt and co don't agree they'd do very well in that scenario, and I believe them, but even if he is right he has no plan if the EU do not renegotiate to avoid a GE.

Looks like Ken Clarke in the audience for Rory.

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

rcs1000 said:

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

"It he's elected, good for him. That's parliamentary democracy."

Maybe you can find some convention then to stop him reaching Number 10? Order the Queen via Bercow to appoint Grieve as Dear Leader for a life term?

?

Processes matter more than outcomes.

We have survived long as a country, because we've recognised that.

Indeed we did, until Remainers and the Speaker made it clear they were willing to smash through age old conventions to get their way. I'm disgusted.

But there's fire in my belly now that I haven't had since June 2016.

I'm no fan of Bercow and his pals either, but if someone is playing with fire in front of me like a wally I don't set myself on fire to show them how outraged I am at what they are doing.

https://twitter.com/adampayne26/status/1138478459515260928?s=21

Rory on now, being introduced by a new MP I don't know.

https://twitter.com/BBCVickiYoung/status/1138487459443032065

Rory calls Bozo "a great prancing elephant"!

HYUFD said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1138445876060463104?s=20

Steve Baker calls for the abolition of the monarchy and the installation of Mr and Mrs Peter Bone as "Dear Leader and Leaderene"

To be fair they only asked a question and nodded, they did not comment for or against Brexit just asked about its implications.

That said while the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh are almost certainly
Leavers and the Queen Mother was reportedly very anti EU, William and Kate are almost certainly Remainers as is Prince Charles. The age divide runs even amongst the Royals

Extraordinary insights! The evidence being what, precisely?

The Queen asking what the EU has ever done for us at a banquet, the Queen Mother saw the EU as a German plot, the Cambridges are basically young metropolitan liberals, Prince Charles is a climate change obsessive and basically a LD

Very flimsy evidence combined with pure invention. Many of the older generation are motivated by the 'never again' reaction to WWII, and support European unity for that reason. Charles is an eccentric fogey with a number of niche obsessions. This does not make him a LibDem. The Cambridges have been a model of political neutrality, more county set than metroplitan liberals.

SandyRentool said:

Rory calls Bozo "a great prancing elephant"!

Not looking for a Cabinet position then. He's fortunate David Laws will ensure he is not the shortest serving Cabinet Minister of recent times.

kle4 said:

SandyRentool said:

Rory calls Bozo "a great prancing elephant"!

Not looking for a Cabinet position then. He's fortunate David Laws will ensure he is not the shortest serving Cabinet Minister of recent times.

He has already said he wont serve under Boris.

But that will be a short premiership.

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1138445876060463104?s=20

Steve Baker calls for the abolition of the monarchy and the installation of Mr and Mrs Peter Bone as "Dear Leader and Leaderene"

To be fair they only asked a question and nodded, they did not comment for or against Brexit just asked about its implications.

That said while the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh are almost certainly
Leavers and the Queen Mother was reportedly very anti EU, William and Kate are almost certainly Remainers as is Prince Charles. The age divide runs even amongst the Royals

You did see her hat, didn't you?

rottenborough said:

Is he doing this with no autocue and no notes?

Incredible.

Eh, that would be impressive but it would only be a gimmick. Much as I like Rory's style in this campaign he is offering no plan that will actually get through parliament.

Rory far too good / sensible for his members

Stewart says he will talk about the elephant in the room - the great prancing elephant - and he is not talking about Boris Johnson, he jokes.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/live/2019/jun/11/tory-leadership-campaigns-hancock-claims-early-commons-brexit-vote-could-lead-to-eu-offering-backstop-concessions-live-news

This Labour plan is very smart as it definitely puts a break on their own internal wrangling, for a time at least.

Rory the PM after Boris has failed and Corbyn has won a majority and made a total hash?

bigjohnowls said:

Rorys Big Tent Conservatism

Tory members: Can we have a smaller tent, please? The riff raff (remainers, soft brexiters, etc) have sneaked into this one.

bigjohnowls said:

Rorys Big Tent Conservatism

Great!

The headline is written

rottenborough said:

Rory the PM after Boris has failed and Corbyn has won a majority and made a total hash?

Yup, that hope is enough to keep me in the Tory party for the foreseeable future.

#TeamRory

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Rory the PM after Boris has failed and Corbyn has won a majority and made a total hash?

Yup, that hope is enough to keep me in the Tory party for the foreseeable future.

#TeamRory

Very impressed and on planting trees my beloved said 'good on you'

I might have to recant my love and support for Rory

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1138490904925429760

That said Ken Clarke's backing him and that's good enough for me.

Rory mentioning non-conservatives again. The traitor.

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

PeterC said:

HYUFD said:

JackW said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/1138445876060463104?s=20

Steve Baker calls for the abolition of the monarchy and the installation of Mr and Mrs Peter Bone as "Dear Leader and Leaderene"

To be fair they only asked a question and nodded, they did not comment for or against Brexit just asked about its implications.

That said while the Queen and Duke of Edinburgh are almost certainly
Leavers and the Queen Mother was reportedly very anti EU, William and Kate are almost certainly Remainers as is Prince Charles. The age divide runs even amongst the Royals

Extraordinary insights! The evidence being what, precisely?

The Queen asking what the EU has ever done for us at a banquet, the Queen Mother saw the EU as a German plot, the Cambridges are basically young metropolitan liberals, Prince Charles is a climate change obsessive and basically a LD

Very flimsy evidence combined with pure invention. Many of the older generation are motivated by the 'never again' reaction to WWII, and support European unity for that reason. Charles is an eccentric fogey with a number of niche obsessions. This does not make him a LibDem. The Cambridges have been a model of political neutrality, more county set than metroplitan liberals.

well said. HYUFD who isn't normally as loony as many leavers (even tho he supports Boris), is talking almost as much crap as Philip-lets-go-to-war-with-Europe-Thompson

Please please please let Rory win the contest, and then it turns out he is backed by Russian money, that would be hilarious.

TheScreamingEagles said:

I might have to recant my love and support for Rory

https://twitter.com/montie/status/1138490904925429760

That said Ken Clarke's backing him and that's good enough for me.

Rory, Rory. Not a proper Tory.

rottenborough said:

Tories have a major problem (well several, but here's one). Boris can reach out and drag Farage voters back. Rory can reach out a bring floating Lab/Lib/Tory voters.

Who is more likely to bring enough votes in and beat Corbyn?

I'm not so sure the answer is actually Boris.

Ah, but the issue is also who can hold onto the most voters they currently have. Much as I dislike Boris, the members and many Tory voters probably align better with him than Rory. The candidates will push some away as well as pull some in.

kle4 said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

rottenborough said:

Rory the PM after Boris has failed and Corbyn has won a majority and made a total hash?

Yup, that hope is enough to keep me in the Tory party for the foreseeable future.

#TeamRory

At some time it may be time to pull the plug. At some point a party is too far gone to return to what it was.

Hmm, I would like to agree with TSE, but I think my standing order to my local association is likely to stopped until someone like Rory is able to take back control from the nutjobs and economy wreckers

https://twitter.com/MarkerJParker/status/1138490511633858560

https://twitter.com/HackBlackburn/status/1138491819090698242

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1138492953910005760

Was Rory's launch a bit reminiscent of Cameron's 2005 Conference speech?

Starting to feel as if he could come from nowhere to win it.

EDIT: Hadn't read last few posts when I posted!

Sandpit said:

Pulpstar said:

OldKingCole said:

TheWhiteRabbit said:

Pulpstar said:

Here are the declared backers using either Guido or Wiki at the moment.

73 JOHNSON
36 HUNT
35 GOVE
24 RAAB
19 JAVID
16 HANCOCK
7 HARPER
6 McVEY
6 STEWART
5 LEADSOM

74 for Boris if you add Cash.

How many to declare?

80? Will May?

Isn't it convention that former PMs don't declare a support ? I expect she'd probably go for Hunt in the privacy of the booth.

Last time out, the number of MPs voting in the ballots was one short of the total. David Cameron.

One vote short of a full ballot could become a new saying. Would certainly apply to several would be PMs.

MikeL said:

Was Rory's launch a bit reminiscent of Cameron's 2005 Conference speech?

Starting to feel as if he could come from nowhere to win it.

But that was in front of the actual membership at conference.