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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls
Above is a chart based on the final polls in the 2012 London Mayoral race when John just squeezed to victory with a margin of three points. As can be seen none of the pollsters had the gap so close.
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A motto for the Democratic race, too.
(Though Biden is, actually, quite popular.)
1. New Prime MInister
2. EU does not budge.
3. Government decides No-Deal on 31st Oct or earlier
4. Parliament stops the government from doing so. How ?
5. Government refuses to apply for an extension to Art.50 or EU refuses. What next then. VONC ?
6. What if HMG survives ?
7. Are we back at No-Deal ?
I do hope that isn't because many of the Tories and others below the line here simply don't like him.
The 2012 polling was wrong on 2nd preferences anyway a totally different proposition to a FPTP election like the next general election
Hunt or Gove are well recognised as is Javid now as Senior Cabinet Ministers yet all poll worse than Boris v Labour mainly as all see the Brexit Party poll over 20% while Boris cuts the Brexit Party down to 13% so zilch to do with name recognition
MPs will be drinking g and t s in the bar and twiddling their thumbs.
Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.
And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.
Note: they are using the updated version of trigger ballot. Sitting AMs are triggered (aka full open selection contest) if either 1/3 of the party branches or 1/3 of the affiliates branches vote to trigger the ballot.
Previously, just like MPs, party branches (in this case CLPs; in MPs case wards) and affiliates branches were considered together. And to be triggered it was required to lose the vote in 50% of them. Given affiliates (mainly unions) often vote for reselection of everyone, it was difficult to deselect sitting members, also because affiliates usually outnumber party branches.
Back to London...
3 constituency AMs are retiring: Andrew Dismore (Barnet and Camden), Navin Shah (Brent and Harrow) and Janette Arnold (North East)
The "trigger ballot" situation for CLPs section (let's assume none of them will have troubles with affiliates) is as follows:
City and East (Unmesh Desai): he won in Bethnall Green & Bow, Poplar & Limehouse, Dagenham & Rainham, Barking, Cities of London. West Ham and East still to come. So he is 5/7. Already above the 2/3 threshold required regardless of the outcome of Newham CLPs
Ealing and Hillingdon (Onkar Sahota): he won Eailing Southall and Ruislip & North Pinner . Lost in Ealing Central. Ealing North, Hayes & Harlington and Uxbridge/South Ruislip etc still to vote. He needs to win all of them
Enfield and Haringey (Joanne McCartney): she won in Tottenham, Edmonton and Enfield Southgate. Enfiled North and Horney/Wood Green still to come. Winning in 1 of them is enough.
Greenwich and Lewisham (Len Duvall). CLPs part finished. He won in Lewisham East, Lewisham West, Greenwich/Woolwich, Eltham and Erith. He lost in Lewisham Deptford. So 5/6. Save.
Lambeth and Southwark (Florence Eshalomi): she won in Vauxhall and lost in Streatham. Dulwich/West Norwood, Camberwell/Peckham and Bermondsey/Old Southwark still to come. She needs to win all of them.
Merton and Wandsworth (Leonie Cooper): she won Putney and Mitcham & Morden. Wimbledon, Tooting and Battersea left. She can afford to lose one of them.
Yes, first name recognition is well overestimated as a pointer to results.
I like his policies, in general. And a Muslim-heritage PM might heal some of the nation's divisions. And boy, do they need healing.
David Miliband led in hypothetical polls in 2010 and Andy Burnham led in hypothetical polls in 2015 and Labour ignored them and lost in 2015 and 2017.
Occasionally you can win regardless e.g. Heath polled better than Thatcher pre 1979 but Thatcher won anyway because of the need for change but generally they are right
They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.
Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0
Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oy4q6y1tfj/Results_190516_ConservativePartyMembers_formatted_2w.pdf
A similar number for Hancock. I suspect those numbers would be very different today.
And everyone asks why he bothered running.
An unexplored area is the capacity of parliament, against the will of government, to pass an act, mandating the government to revoke Art 50 as a way of avoiding 'no deal'. Can the speaker facilitate this step, and if so how?
It is also conceivable that a court would grant an injunction requiring revocation or application for extension on the (arguable) basis that in passing Art 50 parliament was not thereby agreeing to crashing out but only to an agreed deal.
Plenty of lawyers will be having a think about all this.
One other small point. 'No deal' requires someone to take responsibility for the 'No Deal' outcome - something which no-one so far has reached the point of being willing to do. In political terms the end of October is a long time off, and promises now about it mean nothing. Under Art 50 the EU can offer an extension without the UK even asking for one; and under Art 50 the UK can of course both ask for an extension and (as now interpreted) Revoke. Come 31 October will something have changed and will both sides be willing to allow crashing out? I doubt it.
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1138432690640871424
By the by, Trump was quite handsome in his youth. Easy to forget that.
https://www.reddit.com/r/pics/comments/5nvore/young_donald_trump_and_barry_pepper_the/
https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972
A benefit to him politically? Possibly, since as you say he appears (physically at least) less immature and clowny.
But on balance I think not - because the wear & tear on that face looks to me like the result not of 'long nights wrestling with the soul', but of long nights.
This is Britain.
Fox 7 -> 16 (+9) (+128.6%)
Gove 27 -> 48 (+19) (+70.4%)
Leadsom 42 -> 66 (+24) (+57%)
May 141 -> 165 (+24) (+17%)
On balance I've decided I agree with kinabalu. The Ageing Of Boris is bad for Boris.
People want to vote for him (if they want to vote for him) because he seems charismatic, fun, ambitious, energetic - a gamble, but at least an amusing gamble. None of that applies if, when you look at him, you are reminded of death, and the ageing process. Plus you also get the sense he's a major boozer.
https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/article.asp?ID=9672&Article=Behold...+the+June+Monsoon#
Some achievement that.
Boris is meant to be youthful and amusing. He is not amusing when he reminds you of the grave.
All comedians face this problem: it is much harder to be funny as you age. That's why so many successful comedians move on to other trades - writing, serious acting, etc.
But of course I recognize that not everyone feels that.
Same stupid mistake May made.
Some of us are relying on winnings from the cricket in order to unwind our longstanding lay on Boris Bloody Johnson.
Essential caveat, there are plenty of exceptions.
But not my dad.
This isn't the 70s.
All while the Tory government sends £9bn a year to corrupt African regimes.
This is the kind of upside-down thinking Cameron and Osborne have given us.
But yes, there are exceptions: Billy Connolly?
Guys, chill. Have a game of wiff-waff. Better still, spend the time until the launch tomorrow seeing if you can do this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPvf5Yw5l2o
https://twitter.com/HenrySmithUK/status/1138436462683316224
Elsewhere teams often play ODIs on consecutive days, and today’s players are genuine athletes.
These scriptwriters are shit-hot!
Part of the magic of cricket - the best of all sports.