politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Boris Johnson – the man who gets overstated by the polls

Nul.

Don’t confuse high name recognition with popularity

A motto for the Democratic race, too.
(Though Biden is, actually, quite popular.)

Third like Labour

Thread headers seem to have consistently underestimated Boris Johnson's apparent appeal and chances in this leadership contest.
I do hope that isn't because many of the Tories and others below the line here simply don't like him.

I don’t think anyone except HY believes that hypothetical “how would you vote if X were leader” polls are worth a bean.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ThatTimWalker/status/1138402304208646147

Boris should be good if Grieve is so steadfastly against him!

Nigelb said:

Perhaps it should be 'don't confuse high name recognition with voting intention' ?

Cameron polled better in 2005 on hypotheticals than Davis with no greater name recognition.

Hunt or Gove are well recognised as is Javid now as Senior Cabinet Ministers yet all poll worse than Boris v Labour mainly as all see the Brexit Party poll over 20% while Boris cuts the Brexit Party down to 13% so zilch to do with name recognition

surbiton19 said:

Has anyone in PB [ with so many experts ] worked out the following:

1. New Prime MInister
2. EU does not budge.
3. Government decides No-Deal on 31st Oct or earlier
4. Parliament stops the government from doing so. How ?
5. Government refuses to apply for an extension to Art.50 or EU refuses. What next then. VONC ?
6. What if HMG survives ?
7. Are we back at No-Deal ?

Yes, we are back at No Deal, if 1-6 occur as you suggest

Update on Labour reselections for London Assembly

Note: they are using the updated version of trigger ballot. Sitting AMs are triggered (aka full open selection contest) if either 1/3 of the party branches or 1/3 of the affiliates branches vote to trigger the ballot.
Previously, just like MPs, party branches (in this case CLPs; in MPs case wards) and affiliates branches were considered together. And to be triggered it was required to lose the vote in 50% of them. Given affiliates (mainly unions) often vote for reselection of everyone, it was difficult to deselect sitting members, also because affiliates usually outnumber party branches.

Back to London...
3 constituency AMs are retiring: Andrew Dismore (Barnet and Camden), Navin Shah (Brent and Harrow) and Janette Arnold (North East)

The "trigger ballot" situation for CLPs section (let's assume none of them will have troubles with affiliates) is as follows:

City and East (Unmesh Desai): he won in Bethnall Green & Bow, Poplar & Limehouse, Dagenham & Rainham, Barking, Cities of London. West Ham and East still to come. So he is 5/7. Already above the 2/3 threshold required regardless of the outcome of Newham CLPs

Ealing and Hillingdon (Onkar Sahota): he won Eailing Southall and Ruislip & North Pinner . Lost in Ealing Central. Ealing North, Hayes & Harlington and Uxbridge/South Ruislip etc still to vote. He needs to win all of them

Enfield and Haringey (Joanne McCartney): she won in Tottenham, Edmonton and Enfield Southgate. Enfiled North and Horney/Wood Green still to come. Winning in 1 of them is enough.

Greenwich and Lewisham (Len Duvall). CLPs part finished. He won in Lewisham East, Lewisham West, Greenwich/Woolwich, Eltham and Erith. He lost in Lewisham Deptford. So 5/6. Save.

Lambeth and Southwark (Florence Eshalomi): she won in Vauxhall and lost in Streatham. Dulwich/West Norwood, Camberwell/Peckham and Bermondsey/Old Southwark still to come. She needs to win all of them.

Merton and Wandsworth (Leonie Cooper): she won Putney and Mitcham & Morden. Wimbledon, Tooting and Battersea left. She can afford to lose one of them.

Byronic said:

The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.

I think it's good. Has a chance of winning over Mcvey/Harper's troops over with the working class Tory story.

Pulpstar said:

Thread headers seem to have consistently underestimated Boris Johnson's apparent appeal and chances in this leadership contest.
I do hope that isn't because many of the Tories and others below the line here simply don't like him.

I backed Boris at 10/1 and laid him at 1/2.

Interesting that around a third of Tory members polled last month didn't "know enough about this person to say", when asked about Rory Stewart for leader:
https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/oy4q6y1tfj/Results_190516_ConservativePartyMembers_formatted_2w.pdf

A similar number for Hancock. I suspect those numbers would be very different today.

And everyone asks why he bothered running.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AndyJS said:

Updated with latest endorsements:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.

Lunge would be an excellent surname for an ERG member.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AndyJS said:

Updated with latest endorsements:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.

She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.

Byronic said:

Is it me or is Boris suddenly looking quite a lot older?

They've clearly chosen that photo for its unflattering qualities. But I have seen lots of other photos, where he looks similarly haggard, tired, and podgy.

Perhaps this will be to his advantage, as it makes him seem a bit less adolescent, and clownish.

Exactly what struck me when I saw him on TV the other day. He has 'gone over' and has done so at the rather tender age of 54. OK, will be 55 in a week, but that is still well short of the usual age at which this happens, which is 58.

A benefit to him politically? Possibly, since as you say he appears (physically at least) less immature and clowny.

But on balance I think not - because the wear & tear on that face looks to me like the result not of 'long nights wrestling with the soul', but of long nights.

Tissue_Price said:

Heh
https://twitter.com/GeneralBoles/status/1138432690640871424

Perhaps he's visiting Uncle Vince ?

AndyJS said:

Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972

Another decent result for England.

Richard_Nabavi said:

AndyJS said:

Updated with latest endorsements:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.

I've been trying to find out who the other 4 mystery supporters are that she must have had for the nomination paper, without success.

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1138433955877785600

Byronic said:

OldKingCole said:

Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?

Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.

Byronic said:

OldKingCole said:

Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?

Means I have to do things instead of sitting in front of the bx!

Byronic said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1138433955877785600

Crikey, the hair is Totally Trump, there.

On balance I've decided I agree with kinabalu. The Ageing Of Boris is bad for Boris.

People want to vote for him (if they want to vote for him) because he seems charismatic, fun, ambitious, energetic - a gamble, but at least an amusing gamble. None of that applies if, when you look at him, you are reminded of death, and the ageing process. Plus you also get the sense he's a major boozer.

Because when one looks at Corbyn, all one feel is youth and vigour, right?

Isn’t Lynton Crosby presenting private polling to MPs at 4pm today to encourage them that Boris is the man to vote for

Pulpstar said:

IanB2 said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

AndyJS said:

Updated with latest endorsements:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

Thanks Andy, that's excellent.

Not much sign of a Lunge for Leadsom to justify the odds, so far.

She had the biggest upside surprise in the last leadership ballot, though. Leadsom supporters are shy.

Crabb 22 -> 34 (+54.5%)
Fox 7 -> 16 (+9) (+128.6%)
Gove 27 -> 48 (+19) (+70.4%)
Leadsom 42 -> 66 (+24) (+57%)
May 141 -> 165 (+24) (+17%)

She is still a Mother !

It is worth remembering that Johnson won the London mayorality in 2012 by 4% on the first round at the same time as the Conservatives ended up 9% behind Labour in the Assembly elections and as the Conservatives were being absolutely trashed in local elections up and down the rest of England, more so that at any other point of Cameron's premiership.

Some achievement that.

https://twitter.com/avmikhailova/status/1138437097822543874?s=21

Byronic said:

AndyJS said:

Byronic said:

OldKingCole said:

Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?

Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.

Yes the phenomenon is backed up by the stats. It's called the "June monsoon".

https://www.metcheck.com/WEATHER/article.asp?ID=9672&Article=Behold...+the+June+Monsoon#

Thanks for the link. I'm guessing they would have scheduled the World Cup for July and August if it wasn't for the Ashes being held then.

blueblue said:

Because when one looks at Corbyn, all one feels is youth and vigour, right?

When I look at Jeremy the main thing that I feel is a frisson of excitement at the prospect (ever nearer) of a modest but significant and much needed reversal of the Thatcher Blair consensus.

But of course I recognize that not everyone feels that.

Boris is going to throw this away if the coward line sticks.

Same stupid mistake May made.

AndyJS said:

Match abandoned in Bristol between Sri Lanka and Bangladesh.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/cricket/48593972

Bloody rain.

Some of us are relying on winnings from the cricket in order to unwind our longstanding lay on Boris Bloody Johnson.

kjohnw said:

Isn’t Lynton Crosby presenting private polling to MPs at 4pm today to encourage them that Boris is the man to vote for

See the article at the top of this thread. I suspect Boris wins on Fun and name recognition. Reality may be very different though...

Byronic said:

All comedians face this problem: it is much harder to be funny as you age. That's why so many successful comedians move on to other trades - writing, serious acting, etc.

This falls fair and square into the 'sad but true' category. Affects everyone not just comedians. My dad used to make me laugh (for all the right reasons) but now, not so much. All gets a bit stale.

Essential caveat, there are plenty of exceptions.

But not my dad.

justin124 said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1138431491254366208?s=21

I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.

The person who would be Prime Minister should face scrutiny.

This isn't the 70s.

OldKingCole said:

AndyJS said:

Byronic said:

OldKingCole said:

Bangladesh vs Sri Lanka abandoned. Not too confident about tomorrows Aus v Pakistan clash, either.

The rest of the week will be a washout, I fear. What will that do to the tournament?

Ruin it, sadly. Early June has a reputation for being wet, although I don't know whether that's backed up by the statistics.

I remember it snowing one Derby Day back in the 70's. Can't recall what the subsequent summer was like, though.

1867 https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/a-dramatic-derby-day-fdrq0b8fr

Wulfrun_Phil said:

It is worth remembering that Johnson won the London mayorality in 2012 by 4% on the first round at the same time as the Conservatives ended up 9% behind Labour in the Assembly elections and as the Conservatives were being absolutely trashed in local elections up and down the rest of England, more so that at any other point of Cameron's premiership.

Some achievement that.

He was up against Ken Livingstone thought. Who was at or even past his sell-by by then.

justin124 said:

Philip_Thompson said:

justin124 said:

TGOHF said:

https://twitter.com/bbc5live/status/1138431491254366208?s=21

I cannot abide Johnson but do not condemn him for avoiding the broadcasters . That should always be a matter for the candidates themselves. Heath, Maudling and Powell did not debate or give media interviews in the July 1965 contest - neither did Heath, Thatcher, Whitelaw et al do so in the February 1975 contest. I see no reason at all for these campaign launches either - at least not until the party members' stage is reached. I really do resent the sense of entitlement evident from the broadcasters' criticism.

The person who would be Prime Minister should face scrutiny.

This isn't the 70s.

Scrutiny by those who can vote for him - ie Tory MPs until the final stage.The case for scrutiny today is no stronger than in the 70s.

Yes it is. We are in the age of the internet, 24/7 news and TV debates. Time has changed

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/avmikhailova/status/1138437097822543874?s=21

Viceroy_of_Orange said:

The debate in the Tory Party on TV licences really is absurd. Here's a party that is supposed to defend the interests of those who have saved and been frugal all of their lives, talking about stripping well-off pensioners of their TV licences: the same pensioners who will have to sell their homes to pay for their own care.

All while the Tory government sends £9bn a year to corrupt African regimes.

This is the kind of upside-down thinking Cameron and Osborne have given us.

Mate you weren't at the Bruges Group meeting yesterday were you by any chance?

So by trying to avoid making a gaff, Bozo has made a major gaff.

These scriptwriters are shit-hot!

Byronic said:

Pulpstar said:

Byronic said:

The Javid video is interesting. Vastly superior in production values to his first little movie, Clever use of dogs, mums, old photos, the word "Bromsgrove".

Yet he is still stilted, and oddly inarticulate. He repeats words in a weird fashion. He does that strange politicians' hand movement: a lightly clenched fist, with thumb protruding, waggling up and down. They must have been told it looks effective (like the legs apart power-stance). Fail.

And yet.... the video has been watched 200,000 times. Maybe he has a chance.

I think it's good. Has a chance of winning over Mcvey/Harper's troops over with the working class Tory story.

Yes. It's such a shame he is so lacking in charisma. He is anti-charismatic. One of those people that makes you fall asleep as soon as he speaks. Worse than TMay, even though he is clearly smarter than her, and more flexible.

I like his policies, in general. And a Muslim-heritage PM might heal some of the nation's divisions. And boy, do they need healing.

The Saj should sign up with Rada for some charisma training. Mrs T had voice coaching. With the demise of public meetings and conference debates, many politicians have never learned the skills of holding a crowd's attention. I expect we will see something similar in America when the debates begin and we find we have done our money on someone who speaks hesitantly in a dull monotone.