politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The extraordinary betting collapse of Michael Gove
Comments
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Thankyou SunilSunil_Prasannan said:
He said Hitchens does NOT support BojoPulpstar said:
I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?HYUFD said:
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
Sure it won't help him with the members, but unlike Boris he has a fight on his hands just to get to the final two - he needs all the backing he can get.ralphmalph said:
Jeremy Hunt puts head in hands and wails "Please no."AndyJS said:0 -
He wants to try cocaine again?IScott_P said:0 -
Ah. Yes. Absolutely agree Bojo was a disappointment as Foreign Secretary. As was Churchill as Lord of the Admiralty,:ordering Gallipoli. Churchill forgot the detail. i.e. The fact that the Turks could entrench, and the possibility that the Royal Navy might not breach the Dardanelles.TGOHF said:
Did you miss the Foreign Secretary months ?Byronic said:
Why and how? Genuine question.TGOHF said:
But Boris is shit..Byronic said:
And - given the facts on the ground, and the electorate (the Tory membership) - exactly how would you suggest Boris *should* campaign, if he wanted to match your ludicrous standard?Cyclefree said:
Sorry.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
And then we found that a blank space was all she was.
And judging by the lies and statements Johnson is making we will find that there is a blank space in Boris where a realistic achievable plan for Brexit should be.
Come out as a Remainer and Revoker?? No one has dared, you'd get zero votes
Come out as a truth-telling quasi-Remainer, like Rory Stewart? Look at the betting.
Come out as a hardcore no Brexiteer and prorogeur, like Raab? He is flailing.
Boris is winning. And, even as he wins, he is giving little away. That is as good as it gets, I would say, in these adverse circs.
And yet, and yet. being PM is very different to a ministerial position. You get to delegate almost everything, indeed that is probably your main job (aside from leading the nation, with good rhetoric). Boris might just be good at this. He is a proven delegator.
Besides (and more importantly) there is no decent alternative. I can see why the Tories are tempted to take the gamble0 -
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That genuinely made me LOLBenpointer said:
He wants to try cocaine again?IScott_P said:0 -
Yep - Brexit is for the few, not the many.HYUFD said:
If we go to No Deal we will need to cut taxes to continue to attract business and investment and higher earners here so this will help with that. If you want higher taxes you will never vote Tory anywaySouthamObserver said:
A tax cut for the wealthy funded by money set aside to mitigate the effects of the No Deal Brexit Johnson is set to deliver. A gift to Labour and the LibDems.HYUFD said:
£50k in London does not even get you into the top 10% of earners, so that will boost the Tory vote in the capital to cut their taxes and elsewhere toonico67 said:
More economic idiocy . Blowing the money that’s apparently there for a no deal which his EU fantasy plan will lead to . And give tax cuts to those that don’t really need them.Scott_P said:
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I am talking about the general direction of publications not the personalities.HYUFD said:
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.
You were telling me the other day that the Brexit party would win Peterborough and it would be the prelude to an epoch making victory for the Brexit party in the next GE! So, while you are entitled to your opinion, my personal experience of politics has taught me that Boris is doomed. Sorry, but that is how I see it and I have enough insight into the political system, the media and political parties to know that Johnson will be of no consequents for longevity in office if he becomes PM...0 -
Sorry misread it, I didn't think Hitchens would hitch himself to such an obvious medium term disaster as Boris.HYUFD said:
Thankyou SunilSunil_Prasannan said:
He said Hitchens does NOT support BojoPulpstar said:
I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?HYUFD said:
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
J
It’s all relative. Someone earning £80k in Sunderland is well off - but that salary would barely get you a two bed flat in Barking.Sunil_Prasannan said:"Instead of sending £39bn to Brussels, let's spend it on the rich instead"
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Presently (excluding Turkey which is in a Customs Union with the EU) the EU has only 5 FTAs completed with an Asian nation with Japan, one of the more established and slower growing Asian economies anyway, Jordan and Lebanon and Israel and the Palestinian AuthoritySouthamObserver said:
A No Deal Brexit is not Brexit done well. We already have huge opportunities in Asia.HYUFD said:
Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing AsiaSouthamObserver said:
You don’t expand economic.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.0 -
Just like you said the Brexit party would win by a landslide in Peterborough! lolHYUFD said:
Yes, Boris might be heading for a landslide of North Korean proportions on that basis with the Tory membership if Hunt is his opponentTGOHF said:As for Hunt - Rudd and Hammond backing you might be a poisoned chalice.
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Boris really should be a heavy favourite against Hunt though.The_Taxman said:
Just like you said the Brexit party would win by a landslide in Peterborough! lolHYUFD said:
Yes, Boris might be heading for a landslide of North Korean proportions on that basis with the Tory membership if Hunt is his opponentTGOHF said:As for Hunt - Rudd and Hammond backing you might be a poisoned chalice.
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Could someone who knows about this tell me if cocaine users were usually jailed 20 years ago as Gove is saying here:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48572982
Because if not then Gove is spouting self-indulgent bollox.0 -
Hitchens is in eternal opposition, he is so Conservative and uptight he could sell his arse as a diamond mine!Pulpstar said:
Sorry misread it, I didn't think Hitchens would hitch himself to such an obvious medium term disaster as Boris.HYUFD said:
Thankyou SunilSunil_Prasannan said:
He said Hitchens does NOT support BojoPulpstar said:
I don't doubt you but can you show me the Peter Hitchens column backing Bozza ?HYUFD said:
Boris is nothing like Brown and May, personality wise he is more Trump or Berlusconi than those 2. Plus not all conservative journalists back Boris, see Max Hastings, Peter Hitchens etcThe_Taxman said:
Basic rule of thumb, if the Tory/Brexit media all back the same candidate for PM they will turn out to be a disaster. Both Brown and May had unanimous and unequivocal support from these quarters and both were dreadful PM's. Boris will get a honeymoon as Brown and May received but he is looking at that being cut short given the likely trajectory of Brexit!Jonathan said:
It is undoubtedly reminiscent of May and Brown.Byronic said:
Completely the wrong reading. Just 100% wrong. Boris is showing that he knows how to campaign. Give little away. Rely on his reputation as a winner (as London mayor). Let everyone doodle their hopes and wishes on the blank space: Remainers, Leavers, Thatcherites, One Nationers.Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
It is the very best way to win the Tory leadership.
I find it encouraging. If Boris can (at last) be this capable, cunning, cruel and effective as a candidate, he might even be a decently effective PM.0 -
“Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU.”MaxPB said:
That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
That’s a keeper. The idea that a contractual dispute, a political dispute, a No Deal exit and probably also a political crisis in Britain won’t have an effect on those assessing Britain’s standing in the world ......
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That's not true, and it's surprising that you say that as the EU-South Korea deal was one of the most well publicised.HYUFD said:Presently the EU has only one FTA completed with an Asian nation with Japan
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With the Brexit supporting media behind him, you would think so! It will be interesting to see how far the elastic of political gravity can stretch assuming he becomes PM before the media has to follow the people who buy their output rather than consumers being led by the media.Pulpstar said:
Boris really should be a heavy favourite against Hunt though.The_Taxman said:
Just like you said the Brexit party would win by a landslide in Peterborough! lolHYUFD said:
Yes, Boris might be heading for a landslide of North Korean proportions on that basis with the Tory membership if Hunt is his opponentTGOHF said:As for Hunt - Rudd and Hammond backing you might be a poisoned chalice.
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Have any of them promised to reduce borrowing with their fantasy money ?
After all the governments of which they have all been part have borrowed hundreds of billions more than they promised to.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/budget/7846849/Budget-2010-Full-text-of-George-Osbornes-statement.html0 -
Jeremy Hunt has been getting tips from Donald Trump on how to use social media to mobilise supporters
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hunt-turns-to-trump-for-advice-on-tweeting-to-victory-hk8xn65xh
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Boris will already win back voters there from the Brexit Party because he backs a hard Brexit, it is targeted at voters in the more Remain leaning London and the SouthPulpstar said:0 -
Cyclefree said:
“Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU.”MaxPB said:
That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
That’s a keeper. The idea that a contractual dispute, a political dispute, a No Deal exit and probably also a political crisis in Britain won’t have an effect on those assessing Britain’s standing in the world ......
That's an epic moving of goalposts. Epic.
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Isn’t Korea in Asia? I am intrigued by the idea that a trade deal with Japan is of minor interest compared to one with, say, fast-growing Myanmar.HYUFD said:
Presently (excluding Turkey which is in a Customs Union with the EU) the EU has only 5 FTAs completed with an Asian nation with Japan, one of the more established and slower growing Asian economies anyway, Jordan and Lebanon and Israel and the Palestinian AuthoritySouthamObserver said:
A No Deal Brexit is not Brexit done well. We already have huge opportunities in Asia.HYUFD said:
Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing AsiaSouthamObserver said:
You don’t expand economic.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense designed solely for good headlines in the Telegraph and Mail that will end up costing the UK far more than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be soamounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route itsuggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
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Please go back and quote me where I said the Brexit Party would win a landslide in Peterborough and of course the only reason they did not win the seat was because the Tory vote held up better than expected to comfortably beat the LDs for third. It needed more Labour voters to vote LD and more Tory voters to vote Brexit Party for Farage's Party to winThe_Taxman said:
Just like you said the Brexit party would win by a landslide in Peterborough! lolHYUFD said:
Yes, Boris might be heading for a landslide of North Korean proportions on that basis with the Tory membership if Hunt is his opponentTGOHF said:As for Hunt - Rudd and Hammond backing you might be a poisoned chalice.
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Quite. TskMarkHopkins said:Cyclefree said:
“Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU.”MaxPB said:
That's rubbish and you know it. Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU. I'm willing to put a thousand pounds on it. If we end up in dispute resolution for non-payment of the exit bill I'm willing to say it will have no material effect on gilt prices.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be so.Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
But, with great respect, you and @MaxPB are missing the point. Do you really think that Britain refusing to pay amounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route it will not be very long before we find out what our creditors think of a country which behaves in such a way or which, chooses for domestic politics, to make such suggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
That’s a keeper. The idea that a contractual dispute, a political dispute, a No Deal exit and probably also a political crisis in Britain won’t have an effect on those assessing Britain’s standing in the world ......
That's an epic moving of goalposts. Epic.0 -
Not sure I get this. Most high earners will be Remainers and as Deal Brexit is now regarded as a treacherous form of Remain isn't Boris essentially rewarding Remainers through the cancellation of Brexit?Scott_P said:0 -
OK, South Korea too, so 6 of which only 2 are major economies, with fast growing or major economies like India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, China and Singapore there are no deals in placewilliamglenn said:
That's not true, and it's surprising that you say that as the EU-South Korea deal was one of the most well publicised.HYUFD said:Presently the EU has only one FTA completed with an Asian nation with Japan
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He's the last of the candidates I'd have expected to take advice from Trump.HYUFD said:Jeremy Hunt has been getting tips from Donald Trump on how to use social media to mobilise supporters
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/hunt-turns-to-trump-for-advice-on-tweeting-to-victory-hk8xn65xh0 -
Bond traders don't assess "Britain's standing in the world" though. They will, rightly, continue to believe that we will pay the bills that are due.Cyclefree said:“Our creditors will give absolutely no fucks about a contractual dispute with the EU.”
That’s a keeper. The idea that a contractual dispute, a political dispute, a No Deal exit and probably also a political crisis in Britain won’t have an effect on those assessing Britain’s standing in the world ......
As I said, you need to separate market reality from media perception of it. In reality no one will give a flying fuck about this going to dispute resolution. In reality the Bank is the largest holder of Gilts. In reality the ~£20bn or so is peanuts compared to the amount of paper the government has written.
Whether it is morally right or wrong for the government to push this to dispute settlement is up for debate, but if it does it is going to make absolutely no difference to our credit worthiness. I'm willing to put up a £1000 to that effect, happy for @rcs1000 to arbitrate and hold the cash.0 -
Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%SouthamObserver said:
Isn’t Korea in Asia? I am intrigued by the idea that a trade deal with Japan is of minor interest compared to one with, say, fast-growing Myanmar.HYUFD said:
Presently (excluding Turkey which is in a Customs Union with the EU) the EU has only 5 FTAs completed with an Asian nation with Japan, one of the more established and slower growing Asian economies anyway, Jordan and Lebanon and Israel and the Palestinian AuthoritySouthamObserver said:
A No Deal Brexit is not Brexit done well. We already have huge opportunities in Asia.HYUFD said:
Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing AsiaSouthamObserver said:
You don’t expand economic.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense dore than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be soamounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whatever that even means, in this sui generis context). We will pay what is clearly and legally due, and let a court decide the rest. But which court? Who adjudicates? These things must be thrashed out. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route itsuggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.0 -
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/singapore-eu-sign-landmark-free-trade-partnership-agreementsHYUFD said:
OK, South Korea too, so 6 of which only 2 are major economies, with fast growing or major economies like India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, China and Singapore there are no deals in placewilliamglenn said:
That's not true, and it's surprising that you say that as the EU-South Korea deal was one of the most well publicised.HYUFD said:Presently the EU has only one FTA completed with an Asian nation with Japan
"Singapore and the European Union have inked a landmark trade agreement, hailing it as a signal of their commitment to open trade and its potential to benefit their people."0 -
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
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Still not a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/singapore-eu-sign-landmark-free-trade-partnership-agreementsHYUFD said:
OK, South Korea too, so 6 of which only 2 are major economies, with fast growing or major economies like India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, China and Singapore there are no deals in placewilliamglenn said:
That's not true, and it's surprising that you say that as the EU-South Korea deal was one of the most well publicised.HYUFD said:Presently the EU has only one FTA completed with an Asian nation with Japan
"Singapore and the European Union have inked a landmark trade agreement, hailing it as a signal of their commitment to open trade and its potential to benefit their people."0 -
Hunt seems to be picking up momentum tonight.MarkHopkins said:
Boris vs Hunt final?0 -
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
0 -
Turkeys voting for Christmas .
The working class Leavers must be overjoyed . Tax cuts for higher earners and less money for public services with a no deal crash out but hey you got your sovereignty back!
0 -
So what? Japan is a vast market which presents huge opportunities. A country with a median annual salary of $1,000 a year experiencing 20% growth is rather less enticing.HYUFD said:
Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%SouthamObserver said:
Isn’t Korea in Asia? I am intrigued by the idea that a trade deal with Japan is of minor interest compared to one with, say, fast-growing Myanmar.HYUFD said:
Presently (excluding Turkey which is in a Customs Union with the EU) the EU has only 5 FTAs completed with an Asian nation with Japan, one of the more established and slower growing Asian economies anyway, Jordan and Lebanon and Israel and the Palestinian AuthoritySouthamObserver said:
A No Deal Brexit is not Brexit done well. We already have huge opportunities in Asia.HYUFD said:
Brexit done well will expand opportunities to trade across the globe, especially in fast growing AsiaSouthamObserver said:
You don’t expand economic.HYUFD said:
Not if it expands economic growth and thus tax revenuesSouthamObserver said:
Populist nonsense dore than £39 billion. It’s Johnson all over.Cyclefree said:
That is not what those refusing to pay are saying.Byronic said:
It's all a load of bollocks, from both sides. Boris is playing to his domestic audience, but so is Macron (and so is Barnier: who wants to be the next EU prez)Cyclefree said:
That may well be soamounts it legally owes is going to help or hinder Britain after a No Deal/hard/clean Brexit?Byronic said:fpr for Cyclefree
It's bollocks tho. Macron might wish to be the Jupiterian emperor of the world, but, despite that, he does not personally get to decide what constitutes a sovereign debt default.
Macron is increasingly comical and cack-handed. His unwarranted arrogance has just collapsed the merger of Fiat Chrysler and Renault. He was meant to be the French Thatcher. So far he is a disappointing mix of Mitterand distracted by his mistress, and Chirac at the onset of his dementia.
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/emmanuel-macron-gets-lesson-capitalism-090142794
You are surely smart enough to see this?!
We won't break the law and "default" (whateverout. And that will take time.
And Boris will gain from looking flinty and Thatcherite.
If Britain goes down this route itsuggestions.
It is preposterous that what was a serious party should even think of playing such games.
0 -
0
-
They can't hear you above the five-point-lead-under-Boris poll, @Cyclefree...Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
0 -
It will be a Boris, Hunt top 2 on Thursday now in all likelihood, whether that is the final 2 depends where the other contenders support goes, the only contender I would suggest Hunt is certain to gain most of their supporters from are Hancock, Gyimah and maybe Stewartrottenborough said:
Hunt seems to be picking up momentum tonight.MarkHopkins said:
Boris vs Hunt final?0 -
Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
0 -
rottenborough said:
Hunt seems to be picking up momentum tonight.MarkHopkins said:
Boris vs Hunt final?
Looking like it.
0 -
7 point lead under Boris actually and Boris will face a membership vote unlike May or Brown so the point is rubbish anywayviewcode said:
They can't hear you above the five-point-lead-under-Boris poll, @Cyclefree...Cyclefree said:The fact that Boris is doing everything he can to avoid scrutiny is a very bad sign. It’s yet another sign why he is unfit to be PM.
Have Tory MPs learnt nothing from Mrs May? Or earlier from one G Brown?
0 -
Good for Hunt, the losers in these things can trade on that for many years.MarkHopkins said:rottenborough said:
Hunt seems to be picking up momentum tonight.MarkHopkins said:
Boris vs Hunt final?
Looking like it.0 -
Do we need one with Singapore? aren't they the lowest tariff economy in the world?HYUFD said:
Still not a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/europe/singapore-eu-sign-landmark-free-trade-partnership-agreementsHYUFD said:
OK, South Korea too, so 6 of which only 2 are major economies, with fast growing or major economies like India, Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, China and Singapore there are no deals in placewilliamglenn said:
That's not true, and it's surprising that you say that as the EU-South Korea deal was one of the most well publicised.HYUFD said:Presently the EU has only one FTA completed with an Asian nation with Japan
"Singapore and the European Union have inked a landmark trade agreement, hailing it as a signal of their commitment to open trade and its potential to benefit their people."
0 -
Brief comment in middle of packing...
If we're in dispute with the EU over an exit bill, that will not affect the ability of the British government to raise finance (IMHO). What would potentially be a problem would be after we inevitably lose at international arbitration re pensions: if we then refused to pay that, it would almost certainly constitute a technical default, which would cause other obligations to come due.
(A great many bonds - and debts generally - contain small print about becoming immediately due in the event of default, because that avoids creditors finding themselves at the back of the queue in the event of default.)
But, realistically, that would take 3-4 years from crash out to come about. (And it wouldn't be Boris, or even Boris's successor in Number 10 at that point.)
If the UK government had any sense, they'd offer to pay the £10-20bn that they'd lose on in arbitration immediately. Because legally the rest is on massively shakier ground.0 -
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11378338802648064021 -
Ignore it all. Leadership promises on tax are like April snow. Gone by morning.Stark_Dawning said:
Not sure I get this. Most high earners will be Remainers and as Deal Brexit is now regarded as a treacherous form of Remain isn't Boris essentially rewarding Remainers through the cancellation of Brexit?Scott_P said:0 -
In London and the SE the tax changes will be extremely popular. Whether it will help us win seats we wouldn't have otherwise isn't as certain.rottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11378338802648064020 -
Gove and Javid too, unless they are pledged to Leadsome to give PBers apoplexy.HYUFD said:
It will be a Boris, Hunt top 2 on Thursday now in all likelihood, whether that is the final 2 depends where the other contenders support goes, the only contender I would suggest Hunt is certain to gain most of their supporters from are Hancock, Gyimah and maybe Stewartrottenborough said:
Hunt seems to be picking up momentum tonight.MarkHopkins said:
Boris vs Hunt final?0 -
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
0 -
Boris called in Cabinet for an extra £100m a week for the NHS too so that will get that as well as the boost to economic growth from the tax cuts and the sovereignty regained and the tighter controls on immigrationnico67 said:Turkeys voting for Christmas .
The working class Leavers must be overjoyed . Tax cuts for higher earners and less money for public services with a no deal crash out but hey you got your sovereignty back!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-427835860 -
The EU has a number of trade agreements with the US - it just doesn't have one overarching free trade deal.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
0 -
Naive but serious question.
Why are so many tory MPs publicly endorsing candidates?
-? you want to weasel your way to a government position on the small chance that your backee becomes PM, but what kind of PM chooses a minister on this basis?
-? you're a close friend of the candidate. This might explain 20 or so endorsements, not many more.
On the otherhand, you have nailed your colours to the mast, which can easily be held against you in the future.0 -
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe0 -
Exactly, so there is no full Free Trade Deal in force between the EU and USrcs1000 said:
The EU has a number of trade agreements with the US - it just doesn't have one overarching free trade deal.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
0 -
Yes, I think about half would be payable either way, or we'd at least have to take £15-20bn worth of liabilities on to the government balance sheet for pensions and other costs. The rest would go into dispute resolution and make no difference to gilt prices. The question is political IMO. Is it sensible to go into a dispute resolution process with an organisation who you want to conclude a fairly vast trade deal with? I'd say no, but then I'm not trying to win the leadership of the Tory party.rcs1000 said:Brief comment in middle of packing...
If we're in dispute with the EU over an exit bill, that will not affect the ability of the British government to raise finance (IMHO). What would potentially be a problem would be after we inevitably lose at international arbitration re pensions: if we then refused to pay that, it would almost certainly constitute a technical default, which would cause other obligations to come due.
(A great many bonds - and debts generally - contain small print about becoming immediately due in the event of default, because that avoids creditors finding themselves at the back of the queue in the event of default.)
But, realistically, that would take 3-4 years from crash out to come about. (And it wouldn't be Boris, or even Boris's successor in Number 10 at that point.)
If the UK government had any sense, they'd offer to pay the £10-20bn that they'd lose on in arbitration immediately. Because legally the rest is on massively shakier ground.0 -
Chris Patten: situation in Hong Kong most serious since 1997.0
-
Like the electorate, the Commons opposes a No Deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
0 -
Javid dislikes Hunt and most of his backers will likely go to Boris, Gove and Raab if he goes out.Foxy said:
Gove and Javid too, unless they are pledged to Leadsome to give PBers apoplexy.HYUFD said:
It will be a Boris, Hunt top 2 on Thursday now in all likelihood, whether that is the final 2 depends where the other contenders support goes, the only contender I would suggest Hunt is certain to gain most of their supporters from are Hancock, Gyimah and maybe Stewartrottenborough said:
Hunt seems to be picking up momentum tonight.MarkHopkins said:
Boris vs Hunt final?
Gove's backers will likely mainly go to Javid and Boris if he goes out0 -
You mean like Uxbridge?MaxPB said:
In London and the SE the tax changes will be extremely popular. Whether it will help us win seats we wouldn't have otherwise isn't as certain.rottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/11378338802648064020 -
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe
0 -
Given a forced choice between No Deal Brexit or Revoke, 44% of voters preferred No Deal to 42% for Revoke and RemainSouthamObserver said:
Like the electorate, the Commons opposes a No Deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit0 -
Trying to shift the leadership debate in the direction they want? Creating the very narratives we have seen that Boris is going to be hard to beat, near impossible to keep out the top two, and that the main contenders are Hunt, Javid, Raab and Gove.eristdoof said:Naive but serious question.
Why are so many tory MPs publicly endorsing candidates?
-? you want to weasel your way to a government position on the small chance that your backee becomes PM, but what kind of PM chooses a minister on this basis?
-? you're a close friend of the candidate. This might explain 20 or so endorsements, not many more.
On the otherhand, you have nailed your colours to the mast, which can easily be held against you in the future.0 -
What a recipe for unity both those are, when practically level.HYUFD said:
Given a forced choice between No Deal Brexit or Revoke, 44% of voters preferred No Deal to 42% for Revoke and RemainSouthamObserver said:
Like the electorate, the Commons opposes a No Deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit0 -
The Irish American lobby is focused around Boston and New York and now overwhelmingly Democrat, thus Republicans are less influenced by it and more pro BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe0 -
You say you vote for X. If X wins, then result. If Y wins, you say you voted for Y in the secret ballot, that you have always admired Y, and that you are very glad Y won instead of X who you've always really disliked.eristdoof said:Naive but serious question.
Why are so many tory MPs publicly endorsing candidates?
-? you want to weasel your way to a government position on the small chance that your backee becomes PM, but what kind of PM chooses a minister on this basis?
-? you're a close friend of the candidate. This might explain 20 or so endorsements, not many more.
On the otherhand, you have nailed your colours to the mast, which can easily be held against you in the future.0 -
If the exit bill does end up in arbitration, does anyone know where it will end up? The LCIA are probably best equipped but I'd be surprised if the EU agreed to it and the government will never, ever agree to the ECJ ruling on it.0
-
The farmers will want funding. A statement which is always true, mind...HYUFD said:
Boris called in Cabinet for an extra £100m a week for the NHS too so that will get that as well as the boost to economic growth from the tax cuts and the sovereignty regained and the tighter controls on immigrationnico67 said:Turkeys voting for Christmas .
The working class Leavers must be overjoyed . Tax cuts for higher earners and less money for public services with a no deal crash out but hey you got your sovereignty back!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-42783586 0 -
Guido has already included him in Hunt's column.rottenborough said:0 -
Bless your total ignorance. The Irish American lobby is incredibly powerful across the North East of the US, as well as the Mid-West. And is strong in both parties. There are a number of Congressional districts in red and blue states where you don’t get elected if it opposes you.HYUFD said:
The Irish American lobby is focused around Boston and New York and now overwhelmingly Democrat, Republicans are now less influenced by it and more pro BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe
0 -
How about the next time the USA wants support for its warmongering we tell them to get it from Ireland instead ?SouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe0 -
Finally before I go to sleep, oddly in the event of no deal I expect gilt yields to fall quite significantly. There will be a flight to safety and probably another round of QE.0
-
Given a choice in actual elections voters always oppose No Deal.HYUFD said:
Given a forced choice between No Deal Brexit or Revoke, 44% of voters preferred No Deal to 42% for Revoke and RemainSouthamObserver said:
Like the electorate, the Commons opposes a No Deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit
0 -
If I were PM and knew No Deal was inevitable, then I would immediately offer about £15bn, and I'd make sure it was explicitly for the stuff we'd end up paying for anyway. By doing this, it would dramatically lower the chance that the EU would take the rest to dispute resolution. Simply, they don't want to be embarassed by a loss, and they know that some of their demand would be doomed. We might (might) end up paying another £5bn down the line, after further negotiations, but I think that would be the sum of it.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think about half would be payable either way, or we'd at least have to take £15-20bn worth of liabilities on to the government balance sheet for pensions and other costs. The rest would go into dispute resolution and make no difference to gilt prices. The question is political IMO. Is it sensible to go into a dispute resolution process with an organisation who you want to conclude a fairly vast trade deal with? I'd say no, but then I'm not trying to win the leadership of the Tory party.rcs1000 said:Brief comment in middle of packing...
If we're in dispute with the EU over an exit bill, that will not affect the ability of the British government to raise finance (IMHO). What would potentially be a problem would be after we inevitably lose at international arbitration re pensions: if we then refused to pay that, it would almost certainly constitute a technical default, which would cause other obligations to come due.
(A great many bonds - and debts generally - contain small print about becoming immediately due in the event of default, because that avoids creditors finding themselves at the back of the queue in the event of default.)
But, realistically, that would take 3-4 years from crash out to come about. (And it wouldn't be Boris, or even Boris's successor in Number 10 at that point.)
If the UK government had any sense, they'd offer to pay the £10-20bn that they'd lose on in arbitration immediately. Because legally the rest is on massively shakier ground.
What we really don't want to end up with is a situation where the PM makes blood and iron speeches about not paying a penny, and then we end up in interntional arbitration, and they rule against us to the tune of £20bn. Then we either end up grudgingly paying. Or we end up going into technical default, which would end up costing us far more than the £20bn bill.0 -
You want the credit from them for helping their campaign, and might get goodwill or a job in future. You say it is a small chance, but almost 10% of the entire party will be in Cabinet so it doesn't take too much to get your name in there in some capacity.eristdoof said:Naive but serious question.
Why are so many tory MPs publicly endorsing candidates?
-? you want to weasel your way to a government position on the small chance that your backee becomes PM, but what kind of PM chooses a minister on this basis?
-? you're a close friend of the candidate. This might explain 20 or so endorsements, not many more.
On the otherhand, you have nailed your colours to the mast, which can easily be held against you in the future.0 -
What elections were they then?SouthamObserver said:
Given a choice in actual elections voters always oppose No Deal.HYUFD said:
Given a forced choice between No Deal Brexit or Revoke, 44% of voters preferred No Deal to 42% for Revoke and RemainSouthamObserver said:
Like the electorate, the Commons opposes a No Deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit
I don’t recollect no deal or revoke being on any ballot paper?
0 -
It’s an option. The world is as it is, though.another_richard said:
How about the next time the USA wants support for its warmongering we tell them to get it from Ireland instead ?SouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe
0 -
EU payments are a settling up. The idea is that you can then negotiate on the other stuff that actually matters for the future. Throwing the original payments negotiations into question is an aggressive act that shows that you don't want to engage. I can't see any benefit to the UK to doing this. I suggested last night however that Johnson might see benefit in antagonizing the EU into refusing an extension, ensuring the November No Deal parliament that would refuse to vote for.0
-
Are you suggesting that we support US "warmongering" in order to get a better deal on Clorinated chicken and hormone beef?another_richard said:
How about the next time the USA wants support for its warmongering we tell them to get it from Ireland instead ?SouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe
What could possibly go wrong?0 -
No it isn't, of the 9 US states with over 15% Irish American population every one was in the North East and every one bar Pennsylvania voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.SouthamObserver said:
Bless your total ignorance. The Irish American lobby is incredibly powerful across the North East of the US, as well as the Mid-West. And is strong in both parties. There are a number of Congressional districts in red and blue states where you don’t get elected if it opposes you.HYUFD said:
The Irish American lobby is focused around Boston and New York and now overwhelmingly Democrat, Republicans are now less influenced by it and more pro BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe
https://names.mongabay.com/ancestry/st-Irish.html
The Jewish, Hispanic, African American, Christian evangelical lobbies are now more powerful than the Irish American lobby and the Commerce and gun and evangelical lobbies certainly more influential with Republicans.
Indeed Trump was so unconcerned about the Irish fears over a hard border he told Varadkar last week that he wished him well with his country's border wall after Brexit
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-to-ireland-leo-varadkar-post-brexit-border-wall-will-work-out-well/0 -
It wouldn't be the ECJ, because there'd be a clear conflict of interest.MaxPB said:If the exit bill does end up in arbitration, does anyone know where it will end up? The LCIA are probably best equipped but I'd be surprised if the EU agreed to it and the government will never, ever agree to the ECJ ruling on it.
My guess would be the PCA, but I could be wrong. My hope is that the EU is as disorganised as we are. Because it would not be good for us if a case was filed on the day after crash out.0 -
Are you trying to brainwash yourself into following the Brexit party line?HYUFD said:
Exactly, so there is no full Free Trade Deal in force between the EU and USrcs1000 said:
The EU has a number of trade agreements with the US - it just doesn't have one overarching free trade deal.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
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It is and it is an indictment of the incompetence of generations of governments.SouthamObserver said:
It’s an option. The world is as it is, though.another_richard said:
How about the next time the USA wants support for its warmongering we tell them to get it from Ireland instead ?SouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe0 -
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Andrea Leadsom continues to be more popular with punters than Sajid Javid or Rory Stewart.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
The EU's been war-gaming handling No Deal from the beginning, so you can bet they will have everything in place to neuter the UK.rcs1000 said:My guess would be the PCA, but I could be wrong. My hope is that the EU is as disorganised as we are. Because it would not be good for us if a case was filed on the day after crash out.
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Do they, the Brexit Party won most votes in the European elections on a No Deal platform, CUK was the main party pushing revoke and got less than 5%SouthamObserver said:
Given a choice in actual elections voters always oppose No Deal.HYUFD said:
Given a forced choice between No Deal Brexit or Revoke, 44% of voters preferred No Deal to 42% for Revoke and RemainSouthamObserver said:
Like the electorate, the Commons opposes a No Deal Brexit.HYUFD said:
The Remain majority Commons is actually out of touch with Leave voting Britainrottenborough said:Leadership candidates are saddled with the reality that the membership are utterly out of touch with younger, modern Britain.
https://twitter.com/NickBoles/status/1137833880264806402
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/04/04/what-do-public-think-about-no-deal-brexit0 -
Odd isn't it?AndyJS said:Andrea Leadsom continues to be more popular with punters than Sajid Javid or Rory Stewart.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
Neuter the UK?williamglenn said:
The EU's been war-gaming handling No Deal from the beginning, so you can bet they will have everything in place to neuter the UK.rcs1000 said:My guess would be the PCA, but I could be wrong. My hope is that the EU is as disorganised as we are. Because it would not be good for us if a case was filed on the day after crash out.
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The ruling of "agreed to pay as a member" would probably hurt them a lot.rcs1000 said:
If I were PM and knew No Deal was inevitable, then I would immediately offer about £15bn, and I'd make sure it was explicitly for the stuff we'd end up paying for anyway. By doing this, it would dramatically lower the chance that the EU would take the rest to dispute resolution. Simply, they don't want to be embarassed by a loss, and they know that some of their demand would be doomed. We might (might) end up paying another £5bn down the line, after further negotiations, but I think that would be the sum of it.MaxPB said:
Yes, I think about half would be payable either way, or we'd at least have to take £15-20bn worth of liabilities on to the government balance sheet for pensions and other costs. The rest would go into dispute resolution and make no difference to gilt prices. The question is political IMO. Is it sensible to go into a dispute resolution process with an organisation who you want to conclude a fairly vast trade deal with? I'd say no, but then I'm not trying to win the leadership of the Tory party.rcs1000 said:Brief comment in middle of packing...
If we're in dispute with the EU over an exit bill, that will not affect the ability of the British government to raise finance (IMHO). What would potentially be a problem would be after we inevitably lose at international arbitration re pensions: if we then refused to pay that, it would almost certainly constitute a technical default, which would cause other obligations to come due.
(A great many bonds - and debts generally - contain small print about becoming immediately due in the event of default, because that avoids creditors finding themselves at the back of the queue in the event of default.)
But, realistically, that would take 3-4 years from crash out to come about. (And it wouldn't be Boris, or even Boris's successor in Number 10 at that point.)
If the UK government had any sense, they'd offer to pay the £10-20bn that they'd lose on in arbitration immediately. Because legally the rest is on massively shakier ground.
What we really don't want to end up with is a situation where the PM makes blood and iron speeches about not paying a penny, and then we end up in interntional arbitration, and they rule against us to the tune of £20bn. Then we either end up grudgingly paying. Or we end up going into technical default, which would end up costing us far more than the £20bn bill.
Unfortunately the PM is highly likely to make said speeches.
Amazingly we could probably get away with a liability transfer rather than actually giving them money.0 -
Very. Maybe they don't understand the election process and are assuming Leadsom is going through to the members' ballot where she'd be quite popular.rottenborough said:
Odd isn't it?AndyJS said:Andrea Leadsom continues to be more popular with punters than Sajid Javid or Rory Stewart.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.1255749630 -
I support a Canada style FTA with the EU rather than No Deal and personally I also support the backstop for NI with a Canada style FTA for GB so no, but I recognise in a choice between No Deal or Revoke there is no guarantee Revoke and Remain would win most support amongst the electoratewilliamglenn said:
Are you trying to brainwash yourself into following the Brexit party line?HYUFD said:
Exactly, so there is no full Free Trade Deal in force between the EU and USrcs1000 said:
The EU has a number of trade agreements with the US - it just doesn't have one overarching free trade deal.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
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Why is 15% the magic number? There are 34 million Americans who claim Irish descent. That equals immense power. Trump’s ignorance is utterly irrelevant. It’s Congress that approves trade deals.HYUFD said:
No it isn't, of the 9 US states with over 15% Irish American population every one was in the North East and every one bar Pennsylvania voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016.SouthamObserver said:
Bless your total ignorance. The Irish American lobby is incredibly powerful across the North East of the US, as well as the Mid-West. And is strong in both parties. There are a number of Congressional districts in red and blue states where you don’t get elected if it opposes you.HYUFD said:
The Irish American lobby is focused around Boston and New York and now overwhelmingly Democrat, Republicans are now less influenced by it and more pro BrexitSouthamObserver said:
Pelosi is not the problem, it’s the Irish American lobby. That will be there for a very long time to come. And there is no way round it.HYUFD said:
https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/donald-trump-hints-post-brexit-us-uk-trade-deal-state-visit/ (and Pelosi won't be there for ever)SouthamObserver said:
And the UK will not have them either. Ireland and Huawei ensure that.HYUFD said:
Still below the US and China, the 2 largest economies in the world with neither of whom does the EU have a trade deal in forcewilliamglenn said:
In cash terms that's a lot more than a small economy growing at 5%.HYUFD said:Japanese growth was 0.9% in the past year below the global average of 3.3%
https://www.ft.com/content/91d125d6-93c8-11e8-b67b-b8205561c3fe
https://names.mongabay.com/ancestry/st-Irish.html
The Jewish, Hispanic, African American, Christian evangelical lobbies are now more powerful than the Irish American lobby and the Commerce and gun and evangelical lobbies certainly more influential with Republicans.
Indeed Trump was so unconcerned about the Irish fears over a hard border he told Varadkar last week that he wished him well with his country's border wall after Brexit
https://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-to-ireland-leo-varadkar-post-brexit-border-wall-will-work-out-well/
I will bet any sum you care to name that there will be no US/UK trade deal if the Irish American lobby opposes one. Literally any sum.
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