politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some analysis of the Tory leadership race and why the hardline

Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

Richard_Nabavi said:

https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1137043828647571457

https://twitter.com/DomWalsh13/status/1137043832833490949

That's quite interesting information, though I don't know that it is all that significant - a harder Brexiteer already has 50ish nominations, so with transfers from the already declared and just a few more is probably safe even if most of those who have not declared are ones who were May loyalists.

And there's little difference between open no dealers and covert no dealers, hunting for things that may not exist as cover.

Pulpstar said:

Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.

https://twitter.com/peterwalker99/status/1136998615665303553

I’ve been unwinding a bit of my position on Stewart. I’m nibbling back on him at anything north of 40/1.

The public poll is interesting. It’s not inconceivable he could make it to the penultimate or even final round as the alternative to Boris if Hunt and Gove continue to fall flat.

tlg86 said:

Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

There's one just put up on BFE, but when I looked this morning there was no money on it.

Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

tlg86 said:

Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

Yes, Betfair have a ‘final two’ market.

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Peter_the_Punter said:

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

tlg86 said:

Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1133737863907033088

Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?

So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week.

Weathermen should be paid by results.

When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.

One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...

Stagg was neither Royal Navy or Army. He was a RAF Group Captain.

SandyRentool said:

If every non-Bozo voter in round 1 keeps voting for non-Bozo candidates they can keep the buffoon out of the final 2.

Would you consider that likely? Peter the Punter raises the question of if Boris counts as a Deal or No Deal candidate, and whether people agree with me or not that he is a No Deal candidate by virtue of making promises he cannot keep and intending to leave no matter what at the end of October, he does have a lot more Leave MP declarations behind him than the others (bar Raab I think, by proportion at least) so if Gove is the Remainer's leaver, then Boris is the best option for other harder leavers if, as seems likely, no harder leaver can make the final two against (it seems) Gove or Hunt.

SandyRentool said:

If every non-Bozo voter in round 1 keeps voting for non-Bozo candidates they can keep the buffoon out of the final 2.

Clown-commentary avidly monitored. Not sure you're helping your argument by watching.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Can someone please brief me as to whether Boris counts as a Deal or No Deal candidate? (And how would one be sure?)

It depends who Boris is talking to and you certainly couldn't be sure of it from one hour to the next.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1137059415448625154

Avoid looking like a twat by avoiding any references to Game of Thrones.

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1137059415448625154

Death Deceit Dishonesty Dragons

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.

Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.

Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.

I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.

Pulpstar said:

Can everyone stop calling Lord Byron's provenance into question ?

He’s actually Lord Lucan.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Artist said:

Think we're heading for Johnson versus Gove. Raab seems to have fallen out of the picture a bit.

He's fallen out of the betting picture, but the betting is peculiar. Hunt for example was way too long but has now shortened for no particular reason. The Leadsome peculiarity has been widely commented on here, and remains unexplained.

I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.

I’ve been laying Hunt today and topping up on Raab and Stewart.

Raab will appeal the most credible of the Spartans. Floating voter Tory MPs - who are unconvinced by Johnson - will be intrigued by Stewart.

I sense Gove has gone off the boil. Javid is going nowhere.

tlg86 said:

Is there a market for the final two? I'd suggest Boris v Raab would be a lay.

Yes there is:

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159279442

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.

Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.

Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.

I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.

So that's a Yes

viewcode said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Ken Clarke and/or Tracey Crouch leaving their declaration alarmingly late...

Beckett's most depressing work: "Waiting for Penny"

Vladimir: at least the time is passing
Estragon: it would have passed anyway...wait, what are you doing?
Vladimir: (gets up, walks to the apartment next door). Knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny...

(From "Beckett: the Sitcom Years", 2019, Oxford University Press)

Why are you waiting?
'For Godot'
Oh.
OH!
Him?
'Yes him'
Not Corbyn then?
'No Godot'
Are you waiting for Corbyn too.
'No'
Why not?
'No'
I see.

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Byronic said:

Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

*I did say I have lurked awhile

It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age.

Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....

You guessed.

Peter_the_Punter said:

Byronic said:

Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

*I did say I have lurked awhile

It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age.

I always used to get you and Peter From Putney mixed up back in the day!

Andrea's video guy: "Which bits of stock footage should I use?"
Andrea (not listening): "Yes."

Casino_Royale said:

Pulpstar said:

Just watched Leadsom's leader video. 68 camera changes in 80 seconds.

She’s only declared one new MP today.

I think we can conclude she’s struggling. If she had a plan to announce a secret batch she’d lined up, she’d have used it.

View is she had her chance and she botched it

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Byronic said:

Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

*I did say I have lurked awhile

It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age.

Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....

You guessed.

Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 ....

So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much.

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.

Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.

Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.

I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.

So that's a Yes

If you really think Bafin knows the slightest bit about regulation I’ve a bridge to sell you. The AMF is better but need to be educated and Euronext Paris is a dodgy playground for spivs

I see the TMay party leader exit date markets are still up. So Betfair are definitely settling on her replacement date then?

This analysis seems a tad simplistic and rather glosses over the fact the reason more undeclared MPs are loyalists is simply because there were more loyalists to begin with.

If we look at percentages then it is actually remarkably consistent.

% undeclared:
Overall total 43%
43% of loyalists are undeclared (no different to overall figure).
36% of MV2 switchers
45% of MV3 switchers
61% of Spartans
50% of 2nd Referendum

Most of those who've not declared haven't rebelled. But similarly most of those who have declared haven't rebelled. Most of the MPs haven't rebelled and the only cohort who have a lower undeclared percentage is the MV2 switchers.

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Byronic said:

Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

*I did say I have lurked awhile

It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age.

Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....

You guessed.

Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 ....

So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much.

Indeed .... Mrs JackW enjoys her privacy. Her disguises are legendary and have included playing right back for Burnley FC in the 1950's, undertaking doppelganger work for Elton John and understudy for Dustin Hoffman in "Tootsie".

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1137068615717543942?s=21
https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1137068960661352448?s=21

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Byronic said:

Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

*I did say I have lurked awhile

It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age.

Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....

You guessed.

Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 ....

So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much.

Indeed .... Mrs JackW enjoys her privacy. Her disguises are legendary and have included playing right back for Burnley FC in the 1950's, undertaking doppelganger work for Elton John and understudy for Dustin Hoffman in "Tootsie".

You are a cad, Sir. Fancy letting the world know the Memsahib was once associated with Burnley. Shame on you.

Combining Wikipedia and Guido, the figures are (including candidates):

GOVE 33
GYIMAH 4
HANCOCK 13
HARPER 7
HUNT 33
JAVID 17
JOHNSON 50
LEADSOM 5
McVEY 6
RAAB 24
STEWART 6

Declared 198/313 (63.3%)

I obviously missed this:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136780369737453569

CHUK: 0%. That went well.

Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

SandyRentool said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JosiasJessop said:

GIN1138 said:

Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...

Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.

I make a real effort to use a different writing style for each of my six PB identities...

Ah, the identity of Mike Smithson is finally revealed!

Charles said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

FF43 said:

MaxPB said:

That's the other conclusion I've got from the last few days.

Everyone who expects Paris, Dublin or Frankfurt to win from Brexit should definitely reconsider. There are going to be a lot of unlikely winners in this game. One of our directors was saying that if brexit had happened 10-15 years earlier after a Lisbon referendum then Paris would have been the sole victor. Now he's saying eastern Europe will take a lot of those gains, around half and that growth in the city overall will outstrip any losses.

Middle Office jobs (risk analysts and the like) and high end IT jobs are moving to Eastern Europe on a balance of skills and costs. The UK PRA is losing its lead role in implementing EU regulation to authorities in France and Germany and to the ECB itself. Who controls the regulation is what counts for financial services, not market access itself. New York has always between a regulatory heavyweight.

Genuinely, you know fuck all about fuck all. You chat so much shit, but make it sound clever but in reality it's just shit rolled in glitter.

I'm literally scouting a potential holding company site for us in Vilnius which will have about 100 people while the rest of our European operation has been consolidated to our new Liverpool Street HQ. We've brought jobs from Europe to London.

Ultimately, the market is proving us right and you wrong. Investors loathe the EU, us leaving will cause investors to leave the EU.

Are you really this childish and antisocial in the flesh? I ask because most people I meet everyday do keep to the norms of polite society.

I'm just ready to call bullshit for what it is, in person or on the internet. Then again, I'm not completely anonymous, I've met people from PB in real life.

So that's a Yes

If you really think Bafin knows the slightest bit about regulation I’ve a bridge to sell you. The AMF is better but need to be educated and Euronext Paris is a dodgy playground for spivs

What I do know is the Banque de France is throwing its regulatory weight around, which it wasn't it so much before and the UK PRA, which tended to lead on regulation so others would follow isn't so much any more. Whether any of the regulation makes any sense or is effective is another matter, and somewhat irrelevant to financial institutions. You need to be compliant.

Black_Rook said:

I obviously missed this:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136780369737453569

CHUK: 0%. That went well.

As expected, the 24% figure for the LDs was a huge outlier though it was enjoyable for a while. OTOH, I'm sitting here disappointed at a poll rating of 20% when six months ago most LDs would have been more than euphoric with such a poll.

A solid lead for TBP but today's coverage not so positive so we'll see.

I make it an 18.5% swing from Conservative to LD by the way which would be interesting.

Black_Rook said:

I obviously missed this:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136780369737453569

CHUK: 0%. That went well.

Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

I wouldn’t worry. It’s been Labsplained on here that the mass of Labour MPs would exercise effective control over Corbyn and the SWP infiltrators. Because the past is no guide to the future, or something.

Dadge said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

FPT

Peter_the_Punter said:

tlg86 said:

IanB2 said:

tlg86 said:

Is @SouthamObserver about? I think he needs to apologise for this post from last week:

https://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2339183#Comment_2339183

Prepare for serious drought comrades ...

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/1133737863907033088

Its seriously hot in parts of central Europe right now. Maybe the heat just passed us by?

So I see, but I knew what would happen here when Southam posted this last week. The weatherman sounded happy when he announced at the end of the Six O'Clock News that it will get even colder next week.

Weathermen should be paid by results.

When they appear on TV, a little box should appear in the corner showing in percentage terms how accurate yesterday's forecast was and how they've done so far this year. Until this procedure is adopted they have all the credibility of Astrologers, and should be rewarded accordingly.

One wonders what it must have been like to be Captain Stagg giving his weather forecast to General Eisenhower the day before D-Day...

The truth is that it wasn't much better than informed guesswork then, and hasn't improved much since.

Dear Peter, It's not exactly difficult to look at a weather chart and work out from it what tomorrow's weather is going to be like. You must've missed that geography lesson at school. But the internet is good for filling in those lacunae in one's knowledge, so go away and do some studying and stop trolling us.

That's not the point though, Dadge. When I last looked at some decent statistics the accuracy rate for professional forecasters was about 78%. That sounds reasonable, but appears less so when you appreciate that if you simply guess every day that it won't rain tomorrow you will be right about 70% of the time. Is the extra 8% worth all the effort?

And is there anything wrong with asking forecasters to show their results?

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JackW said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

Byronic said:

Can I just say something, as the last thread got hijacked by this endless discussion.

I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.

Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.

Now, about those Scottish subsamples*

*I did say I have lurked awhile

It's actually quite funny, Byron, and could easily turn into one of PB's enduring legends, like Roger's betting ability, or Jack W's age.

Or @Peter_the_Punter and his attire, by repute the former property of Danny la Rue ....

You guessed.

Guessed ?!? .... Mrs JackW was the auction under bidder when you bought the collection at Christie's South Kensington in 2010 ....

So she was the lady with the red beard then? Should have guessed as much.

Indeed .... Mrs JackW enjoys her privacy. Her disguises are legendary and have included playing right back for Burnley FC in the 1950's, undertaking doppelganger work for Elton John and understudy for Dustin Hoffman in "Tootsie".

You are a cad, Sir. Fancy letting the world know the Memsahib was once associated with Burnley. Shame on you.

Mrs JackW was on loan from Queen of the South.

I might add that she has an interest in the Conservative leadership race being 35 Tory MP's in total. She has however endorsed only eight candidates for a total of 19 votes and is likely to remain undeclared for seven votes.

If feeling especially bewildered and out of sorts Mrs JackW takes on the mantle of 4 members of the ERG - It's an ugly sight !!

It's our last night in Vilnius, I've got the company gold card, there are about 7 of us left here and I'm easily the most senior.

AlastairMeeks said:

SandyRentool said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

JosiasJessop said:

GIN1138 said:

Why would SeanT be posting under a non de plume anyway?

Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?

AFAICR, SeanT has admitted in the past to going onto websites (e.g. newspapers) and posting beneath the line 'in character' to provoke comment.

But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...

Sad though this may be, I can usually pick up who the poster is from reading the post without even looking at the name. This applies to some more than others, and to SeanT more than most because of his own special style. In fact I'd say only Ave It is more easily identifiable.

Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.

I make a real effort to use a different writing style for each of my six PB identities...

I’ve never been brave enough to claim a writing style.

Believe it or not, Alastair, you are one of the easier 'picks'.

Other easy picks include David Herdson, Richard Nabavi, Sunil, Cyclefree and of course OGH!

SandyRentool said:

williamglenn said:

https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1137068615717543942?s=21
https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1137068960661352448?s=21

Oh great. War.

Don't think it'll be much of a war. Sturgeon will be on the phone to Penny and she'll be using the might of the Royal Navy to throw around a few Irish trawlers and a couple of Irish coast guard vessels. It's strange to think that Nicola is against big nations bullying little ones but she seems happy to use the power of the United Kingdom to enforce this.

The most subtly enigmatic poster, and by some measure, is Malcolmg

Kate Hoey spins the Peterborough result:

https://twitter.com/katehoeymp/status/1137019006249046016?s=21

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1137059415448625154

I have never seen a single second of it but I believe Stewart Lee refers to it as "Peter Stringfellow's Lord of the Rings," or "Bilbo Baggins down the Spearmint Rhino," which I thought was funny.

Black_Rook said:

matt said:

Black_Rook said:

I obviously missed this:

https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136780369737453569

CHUK: 0%. That went well.

Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.

Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?

I wouldn’t worry. It’s been Labsplained on here that the mass of Labour MPs would exercise effective control over Corbyn and the SWP infiltrators. Because the past is no guide to the future, or something.

So, as I was saying, how should one prepare best for the reduction of the country to a Venezuelan level of ruin? I'm doing my best at the moment to get fit so I'm more likely to be predator than prey if the time comes when we start killing and eating each other, but any other tips would be appreciated.

(And yes, I have already considered emigration, but I'm too old and lacking in the necessary niche skills, and besides I'm not prepared to abandon the aged parents to die.)

Come to the Lake District: lots of sheep and blackberries in the hedges, plenty of apple and plum trees, lakes to wash in and guns to fight off townies......

TheScreamingEagles said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHerdson/status/1137059415448625154

Best things about GOT:

“Lannisters always pay their debts”. A brilliant threat of multiple applications.

Starks: “Winter is coming “. Equally applicable. Prepare for the worst.

Basically anything Tyrion Lannister said. Best character by a distance.

JohnO said:

The most subtly enigmatic poster, and by some measure, is Malcolmg

The Rab C Nesbitt of PB.com.