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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some analysis of the Tory leadership race and why the hardline
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some analysis of the Tory leadership race and why the hardline No Deal Brexiteers might end up struggling in the MP stage of voting
Friday leadership race update (using @GuidoFawkes totals):
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edit: (Now I've nabbed index0)
Stewart is enormously impressive. Wise old man views on seemingly young legs - although he looks his wise-old-man age. His actual views are a bit ropey though - "citizen's councils"!? There's no sense there.
And there's little difference between open no dealers and covert no dealers, hunting for things that may not exist as cover.
The public poll is interesting. It’s not inconceivable he could make it to the penultimate or even final round as the alternative to Boris if Hunt and Gove continue to fall flat.
I think we can conclude she’s struggling. If she had a plan to announce a secret batch she’d lined up, she’d have used it.
I am me. Not the other guy. I am very definitely, honestly, and totally me. You can ask my wife (who is not 20-something). She certainly knows. I've lurked for a long time and came on here to have some intelligent debate, which is generally what happens. It's a great site.
Feel free to presume I am someone else. Knock yourself out. I can't stop you. But further discussion will mummify everyone with boredom, which would be a shame. I apologise for provoking this, but I really didn't intend it, or want it.
Now, about those Scottish subsamples*
*I did say I have lurked awhile
I suspect the betting market in this event is about as reliable as it was for Peterborough.
Vladimir: at least the time is passing
Estragon: it would have passed anyway...wait, what are you doing?
Vladimir: (gets up, walks to the apartment next door). Knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny, knock knock Penny...
(From "Beckett: the Sitcom Years", 2019, Oxford University Press)
Raab will appeal the most credible of the Spartans. Floating voter Tory MPs - who are unconvinced by Johnson - will be intrigued by Stewart.
I sense Gove has gone off the boil. Javid is going nowhere.
Raab will appeal the most credible of the Spartans. Floating voter Tory MPs - who are unconvinced by Johnson - will be intrigued by Stewart.
I sense Gove has gone off the boil. Javid is going nowhere.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.159279442
Bugger.
'For Godot'
Oh.
OH!
Him?
'Yes him'
Not Corbyn then?
'No Godot'
Are you waiting for Corbyn too.
'No'
Why not?
'No'
I see.
Have I missed something? Has he been banned? Gone off in a huff again?
Andrea (not listening): "Yes."
Though I'm not convinced that Byron is SeanT he (or she) lacks something, the writing isn't as good and the put downs are nowhere near as good. It's a bit like someone put the cover of the a Tom Knox novel on a Dan Brown book.
But if he was doing that on here, he'd be someone like @TheJezziah, not someone who could be mistaken for him. There'd be little sport in that ...
Here's an article ex this site that fits your "dire" definition: https://betting.betfair.com/politics/uk-politics/peterborough-by-election-betting-and-analysis-050619-171.html
Byronic is definitely not SeanT, though why it should bother anybody is beyond me.
If we look at percentages then it is actually remarkably consistent.
% undeclared:
Overall total 43%
43% of loyalists are undeclared (no different to overall figure).
36% of MV2 switchers
45% of MV3 switchers
61% of Spartans
50% of 2nd Referendum
Most of those who've not declared haven't rebelled. But similarly most of those who have declared haven't rebelled. Most of the MPs haven't rebelled and the only cohort who have a lower undeclared percentage is the MV2 switchers.
I've complained.
https://twitter.com/darranmarshall/status/1137068960661352448?s=21
Some will be those who want a soft Brexit like May negotiated.
Some will want Brexit and be prepared to endorse and Brexit deal so long as we leave.
Some will be careerists who care more about being loyal and seeing their own career rewarded than what type of Brexit we have.
It is interesting to note that Boris is picking up a similar proportion of "loyalists" as he is picking up "MV3 switchers". How much of this is careerists who think they can see which way the wind is blowing and want to further their own career?
GOVE 33
GYIMAH 4
HANCOCK 13
HARPER 7
HUNT 33
JAVID 17
JOHNSON 50
LEADSOM 5
McVEY 6
RAAB 24
STEWART 6
Declared 198/313 (63.3%)
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136780369737453569
CHUK: 0%. That went well.
Given the broader circumstances, I think now would be a good time to start preparing for a lunatic Marxist takeover. It's impossible to stockpile everything in my tiny flat, but I've got plenty of candles and was thinking of stocking up on Kendal Mint Cake (emergency sugary energy, in case of severe food shortages and/or five-hour queues at the local Red Star Supermarket,) and at least one massive pack of good quality bog rolls.
Bearing in mind space constraints and the need to prioritise (a thousand litres of bottled water, for example, is not practical,) what else should I be thinking of hoarding now to prepare for the Revolution?
If they believe that May is still leader, as they seem to - and as seems logical to me - then surely the market remains open.
If they closed the market but then didn't pay out, that would surely undermine them.
A solid lead for TBP but today's coverage not so positive so we'll see.
I make it an 18.5% swing from Conservative to LD by the way which would be interesting.
It's not unusual for a block over Scandinavia to lead to more rain to the west of it. It's what happened in the record wet winter of 2014.
And is there anything wrong with asking forecasters to show their results?
I might add that she has an interest in the Conservative leadership race being 35 Tory MP's in total. She has however endorsed only eight candidates for a total of 19 votes and is likely to remain undeclared for seven votes.
If feeling especially bewildered and out of sorts Mrs JackW takes on the mantle of 4 members of the ERG - It's an ugly sight !!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressure_(play)
I recall it was quite good.
(And yes, I have already considered emigration, but I'm too old and lacking in the necessary niche skills, and besides I'm not prepared to abandon the aged parents to die.)
Other easy picks include David Herdson, Richard Nabavi, Sunil, Cyclefree and of course OGH!
https://twitter.com/katehoeymp/status/1137019006249046016?s=21
“Lannisters always pay their debts”. A brilliant threat of multiple applications.
Starks: “Winter is coming “. Equally applicable. Prepare for the worst.
Basically anything Tyrion Lannister said. Best character by a distance.