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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Peterborough by-election betting – the final 12 hours
Chart of Betfair exchange price movements from betdta.io
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I went to bed so missed all this fun.0
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Good to see a racist party defeated. Depressing to see a racist party win. For Peterborough read England at the next general election. In hundreds of constituencies there will be no good choices.0
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May to officially step down as leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452
Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?0 -
Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!0 -
A wild night by the looks of it.0
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I did not so am completely cream crackered and hoping nothing important comes up at work. Betfair's settler does seem to be enjoying a good night's sleep though, as the market is still open.Casino_Royale said:I went to bed so missed all this fun.
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@Casino_Royale in no fun in bed shocker !!!!!!!!!!!!!!Casino_Royale said:I went to bed so missed all this fun.
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Well done Peterborough. Hopefully this will put to bed the notion that 70% of the country is screaming for a no-deal Brexit, which seems to have been much of media’s interpretation of the Euro results.0
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But remains acting leader. So she is still leader.Nigelb said:May to officially step down as leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452
Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?0 -
The ambiguity follows from a line midway through that report: Mrs May remains acting leader while the contest takes place.Nigelb said:May to officially step down as leader:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48550452
Hoping that is good enough for Betfair, split infinitive and all ?
If I ran Betfair, I'd be thinking about voiding the market, especially as their Help Desk team has been reported to have given conflicting advice. As punters, we are basically betting on which way Betfair will jump rather than when Theresa May departs.0 -
Enjoying my bragging rights from predicting a narrow Labour victory last night.2
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2016 redux!0
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Closer to 50%not_on_fire said:Well done Peterborough. Hopefully this will put to bed the notion that 70% of the country is screaming for a no-deal Brexit, which seems to have been much of media’s interpretation of the Euro results.
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What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.Scott_P said:1 -
On a scale of 1-10 how accurate were the polls, and what does it tell us about national polls...????? 0
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Stephen Pollard talking out of his backside as usual starting with 'Our allies in Labour...' Since when has he ever done anything other than use any right wing vehicle open to him to discredit Labour since long before Corbyn. He's a complete humbug.Scott_P said:1 -
Good morning, everyone.
Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.0 -
'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.Roger said:Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.0 -
Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.Scott_P said:
Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....0 -
Great betting opportunities during the early hours. My net gain overall was 70p (less 5% to Betfair).
At least I didn't lose. I would have won more if my early 200/1 on the LibDems had won!0 -
@Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.
My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.0 -
The new Peterborough MP apparently found it very easy to talk with racists and anti-Semites. She even commented that she enjoys reading such guff!Roger said:Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
Corbyn's Labour should be proud to have such a woman in their party. 1 -
I just laid BXP.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.
I knew their ground game would be shit.
Their candidate admitted it on BBC news this morning.0 -
Hopefully we've reached the high water mark for Farage and the the collapse is fast and humiliating. 'Slinking out of the backdoor' is a great startOldKingCole said:
'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.Roger said:Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.0 -
Perhaps Farage might change his mind on Brexit - the European elections seem to be the only thing he can win. Feel blessed to be spared his Rothmans grin all over the place this morning. And lovely to see TBP blaming it all on the wrong colour of voter - their true colours showing as expected.1
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Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.1
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Interestingly, even if you added UKIP's vote to the BP's, then they still would not have won. In a seat where >62% voted to leave, there seems to be no fondness for a hard Brexit.
All in all, a good show by Labour.1 -
Adding the latest YouGov to the EMA (to smooth out noise) gives:
Con 22.5%, Lab 26.6%, LD 17.1%, Brex 21.4%
Con 193
Lab 291
LD 36
Brex 54
Grn 1
PC 3
SNP
53
NI 18
Lab minority, 35 short of majority.
Of the 24 LD gains, 2 are from Lab and 22 are from Con.
of the 54 Brex gains, 7 are from Lab and 47 from Con.
The Tories are being eaten from all sides. Labour gain 29 seats on 2017 in spite of 14% drop in share.
Although the above predictions will be wrong, the basic underlying pattern is clear.2 -
Something for everyone from Peterborough I think.
BXP biggest ‘losers’ of the night but have shown they can attract substantial votes.
Lib Dems continuing to improve their position.
Labour will be delighted to hold this and this helps shore up Corbyns position.
Tories will be pleased their vote didn’t collapse and shows they can potentially pull things back depending on the leadership change.0 -
Why the swingback to BXP? (I didn’t stay up to watch)0
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As
Just idiots driven by idiots speculating on TwitterIanB2 said:Why the swingback to BXP? (I didn’t stay up to watch)
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Deleted in light of subsequent posts.0
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TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
Excellent news for British politics generally, there is life in the old dog yet. Hope all parties take comfort in our ability to defeat Farage. FPTP is a different ball game.0
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Yes, though my predictions were wrong, the Labour ground game looked very efficient, so I put a tenner on Labour at 5.AlastairMeeks said:
@Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.Morris_Dancer said:Good morning, everyone.
Must admit, I am surprised. Kudos to anyone who backed Labour.
My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.
Good to see the grin wiped off Farage's ugly mug, hopefully infighting to start shortly in the BXP. Anti-semitic Corbynista not my taste but could be critical in a VONC.0 -
The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.2
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Don't forget me! I tipped Labour at 8. Smug city.AlastairMeeks said:
@Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.
My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.
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Killed a lot of stories about Corbyn and Farage journalists were going to write for months on end, perfectly timed by election.AlastairMeeks said:The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.
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Trading, cashing out, and naive momentum followers misled by the former; the arrival of Nigel Farage at the count would have further encouraged backers (and is evidence his team was confident early in the count).IanB2 said:Why the swingback to BXP? (I didn’t stay up to watch)
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The show rolls onto B&R what are the current odds?0
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It is undeniable that in some quarters a whiff of anti-semitism goes down well indeed.DecrepitJohnL said:
What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.Scott_P said:
I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.0 -
The really significant bit of the Peterborough result is that given the chance to vote for a No Deal Brexit a Leave constituency declined.2
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The new Labour MP should be suspended from the party whip pending an investigation. Anything else is a betrayal of the party's claim to be anti-racist.Roger said:
Stephen Pollard talking out of his backside as usual starting with 'Our allies in Labour...' Since when has he ever done anything other than use any right wing vehicle open to him to discredit Labour since long before Corbyn. He's a complete humbug.Scott_P said:0 -
Whatever they say, HYUFD will tell us they mean the country wants PM Farage.SquareRoot said:On a scale of 1-10 how accurate were the polls, and what does it tell us about national polls...?????
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Corbyn owes Gordon Brown a lot. The old war horse worked hard and was not the albatross the Tories joked about.TheJezziah said:
Killed a lot of stories about Corbyn and Farage journalists were going to write for months on end, perfectly timed by election.AlastairMeeks said:The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.
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And they don't care about the anti-semintism in their own ranks. Shameful.TheJezziah said:
Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.Scott_P said:
Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....0 -
So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?0
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The ERG are already Brexit Party MPs in all but name.AlastairMeeks said:So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?
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I think the main effect, ironically perhaps, will be to kibosh Boris; at least, that is the way I have been betting.Foxy said:
It is undeniable that in some quarters a whiff of anti-semitism goes down well indeed.DecrepitJohnL said:
What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.Scott_P said:
I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.0 -
Does this make a Con BXP arrangement more likely?AlastairMeeks said:So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?
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A vote for the Brexit Party is a vote for Corbyn...AlastairMeeks said:So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?
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They don't believe our racist, xenophobic right wing media who amplify claims (many false or out of context) in order to boost those who follow their bigoted views.felix said:
And they don't care about the anti-semintism in their own ranks. Shameful.TheJezziah said:
Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.Scott_P said:
Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....0 -
Jess Philips spot on there.Scott_P said:0 -
Yep, that’s fair. Also worth mentioning that the Brexit party is led by someone who has openly endorsed and campaigned for white supremacists in Europe and the US, while the Tories are just about to make someone who has happily consorted with racists for years their leader. There were no good choices for the voters of Peterborough, so they were forced into making a judgement on the least worst choice.Foxy said:
It is undeniable that in some quarters a whiff of anti-semitism goes down well indeed.DecrepitJohnL said:
What ought to worry Pollard is that the opposite might be even worse, that antisemitism is kept hidden for a sniff of power.Scott_P said:
I think it is all priced in now. No one else will change their mind or vote over Labours anti-semitism problem.
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So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”0
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"Mr Farage's silence was significant. He will be concerned that if his new party couldn't win here, where 61% of voters voted Leave in 2016, where can they win?OldKingCole said:
'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.Roger said:Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
Something to chew over next time is enjoying five-star roast beef and claret."
Sky News0 -
Nigel was pissed - in both the English and American sense of the word. Allegedly.OldKingCole said:Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
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At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.1 -
The leadership is vacant from the moment she resigns. However, she continues to discharge the functions of party leader until a replacement is elected.IanB2 said:So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.
I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.0 -
Many Conservatives will be breathing a sigh of relief.AlastairMeeks said:So, any Conservative MPs thinking of defecting to the Brexit party this morning?
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Farage on R4, sigh. Why do they interview losers like him? You lost Nige, crawl back under your rock for a bit.
‘Vote Tory, get Corbyn’. Rolls eyes.0 -
Trouble is, when she stands down, Theresa May stops being the leader and immediately becomes the acting leader, or in other words, the leader. I'd say the current price is a good one but only because it should be 3 or 4. We are betting on Betfair's whim, not on anything Theresa May does.IanB2 said:So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
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Yes.kinabalu said:
Don't forget me! I tipped Labour at 8. Smug city.AlastairMeeks said:
@Casino_Royale @NickPalmer and I collectively agree on little but we all saw it as a good idea to oppose the Brexit party yesterday morning at the odds on offer.
My reasoning was simply that no one really knew what was going on and yet the Brexit party odds were very short. Knowing that the Brexit party probably didn’t know who their voters were or have experienced by-election campaigners also influenced me. Finally, Peterborough is not a seat particularly suited to the Brexit party. They had the momentum but that was it.
☺
Well done but this morning I am just relieved Farage has been humiliated and strangely fled the scene showing him up as a coward. I would however issue a word of warning to labour proclaiming this as a great victory when labour lost 17% of their vote
The show moves on now to the leadership race and if anything I believe Boris's chance has improved after a reasonable conservative showing last night and he is probably the only conservative who can attack Farage and Corbyn with some success
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Yet you were happy to campaign on xenophobic lies to win a referendum. Hypocrite.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
LOL. What was 'out-of-context' or 'false' about the comments about Lisa Forbes social media usage?TheJezziah said:
They don't believe our racist, xenophobic right wing media who amplify claims (many false or out of context) in order to boost those who follow their bigoted views.felix said:
And they don't care about the anti-semintism in their own ranks. Shameful.TheJezziah said:
Lamenting the fact that a party led by Farage didn't win from an anti racist position... Only hypocrites like Pollard can do that kind of thing with a straight face.Scott_P said:
Turns out Farage's racism isn't the vote winner Pollard was hoping it would be, turns out the younger generation don't share his hateful values. What a shame....0 -
Curtice said the result is in line with national pollslogical_song said:
"Mr Farage's silence was significant. He will be concerned that if his new party couldn't win here, where 61% of voters voted Leave in 2016, where can they win?OldKingCole said:
'Just' is enough as Leave keep reminding us. Especially in FPTP elections.Roger said:Great result for all those who loathe Farage and all he stands for. Difficult to talk about racists and anti-semites if his mob had won a seat.
And another victory for Remain.....just!
Glad to see TBP defeated though, especially with our pro-Leave media. According to the Guardian 'Farage left the count through a backdoor just minutes before the result was announced.'. Didn't, apparently speak to reporters.
Something to chew over next time is enjoying five-star roast beef and claret."
Sky News0 -
Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
I know that, you know that, Betfair does not. Insane how much money I assume we have all left on the table due to this.ydoethur said:
The leadership is vacant from the moment she resigns. However, she continues to discharge the functions of party leader until a replacement is elected.IanB2 said:So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.
I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.0 -
You can argue that. However, for betting purposes, it is what Betfair decides that matters, not some higher truth.ydoethur said:
The leadership is vacant from the moment she resigns. However, she continues to discharge the functions of party leader until a replacement is elected.IanB2 said:So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
The only Tory leader in the twentieth century who handed them over to somebody else - leaving aside Bonar Law and Anthony Eden who were both on sick leave at the time they resigned - was Edward Heath, who began the longest sulk in history by asking Robert Carr to act as leader until the conclusion of the leadership election.
I would argue that she officially ceases to be leader today. Acting leader is not the same as leader.0 -
Betfair has settled the Peterborough market.DecrepitJohnL said:
I did not so am completely cream crackered and hoping nothing important comes up at work. Betfair's settler does seem to be enjoying a good night's sleep though, as the market is still open.Casino_Royale said:I went to bed so missed all this fun.
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I feel like we've had this conversation a few times, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet you were happy to campaign on xenophobic lies to win a referendum. Hypocrite.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
Yes, and you will never get a free pass to be hypocritical. Motes and beams, motes and beams.Essexit said:
I feel like we've had this conversation a few times, Alastair.AlastairMeeks said:
Yet you were happy to campaign on xenophobic lies to win a referendum. Hypocrite.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
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As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.
And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.
(Needless to say, this works in many directions.)0 -
Yes.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
It's not quite correct to say the CIA 'helped to set up' Al-Qaeda. That was formed out of the mujahideen groups in Afghanistan, which in turn had been around since before the Soviet invasion. However, following the Soviet invasion the CIA funnelled a lot of money to them in order to maximise the damage and disruption to the Soviet puppet state. In fact Al Qaeda as an official organisation began when bin Laden's money began replacing this CIA money.
A phrase about sowing winds and reaping whirlwinds springs to mind, but I think it's going a bit far to say they 'set it up.'0 -
Yes, it is 'such a leap' - from the CIA backing what they saw as an anti-Soviet force to the idea that Israel would back an organisation that would like to wipe them out.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
The real story is thr Conservative figure right? scratch that, the real story was me laying off my Labour to win bet yesterday.0
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Who are people who stuck with the Tories in Peterborough? Tory Remainers? Soft Brexiteers? Andrea Leadsom backers?
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The choice in Peterborough was between a party led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with anti-Semites and one led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists. Those solely focusing on one of the two are not genuine anti-racists.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
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Can we all agree that the average Peterborough MP is a loathsome racist twat, and leave it at that?JosiasJessop said:
As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.
And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.
(Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
It seems to be part of the job description.0 -
Shocking naivety from you there.AlastairMeeks said:The good news is that we might get five minutes without wall to wall op-eds trumpeting the electoral brilliance of Nigel Farage.
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Tim, formerly of this parish, saw Peterborough as one of the constituencies cursed by its representatives of whatever party. I seem to recall Shrewsbury was on his list too.ydoethur said:
Can we all agree that the average Peterborough MP is a loathsome racist twat, and leave it at that?JosiasJessop said:
As I say above, it seems a similar descent as occurs in red-pilling. A slow descent into conspiracy theorism and easy answers where a particular individual or group is to blame.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
If loads of right-on people you generally agree with say, or agree with, guarded, carefully-worded borderline racist comments, those comments slowly becomes normalised. It is then easier to sink further down into the abyss and accept worse comments.
And social media is full of little exclusive rooms that act as direct sinkholes into racism.
(Needless to say, this works in many directions.)
It seems to be part of the job description.0 -
Yes. Seems like the interpretation the exchange are making is that she is leader until a new leader takes over. So the bet is not on when she resigns, but on the betfair interpretation of their rules and whether it will go to a membership vote.IanB2 said:So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
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Bobby Smith received only five votes. Did anyone take the 4/6 from Shadsy that Smith would finish last?0
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I trust everyone had a profitable evening 😀
Another Jew hating MP though is bad news for the Uk - let’s hope that she is either ousted in 2022 or before hand.0 -
No, there really isn't. The allegations aren't being made to get to any underlying 'truth', but to spread hatred and defend the really evil people - ISIS themselves, and their supporters.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.
It's insinuating that ISIS were not responsible for their actions: it was the responsibility of the evil Americans and Israelis (code for 'Jews'). Blame them, not ISIS.0 -
That and she is remaining acting leader. So she is still leader.OblitusSumMe said:
Yes. Seems like the interpretation the exchange are making is that she is leader until a new leader takes over. So the bet is not on when she resigns, but on the betfair interpretation of their rules and whether it will go to a membership vote.IanB2 said:So the BBC is announcing that May will stand down officially today as Tory party leader, yet the odds on a June departure are 6.0 on Betfair and the rules are: “When will Theresa May officially cease to be leader of the Conservative Party?”
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Ahem....
http://politicalbetting.vanillacommunity.com/discussion/comment/2346857#Comment_2346857Freggles said:I think Labour will win tomorrow. I just can't see people voting the same way for a Westminster seat as they do for Euros. I could be wrong but it seems like one of those times people get carried away with the narrative of big change.
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'Be careful what you wish for' is a good basis for action. Especially when someone points out you might be being too clever by half.DecrepitJohnL said:
Yet we know the CIA helped set up Al Qaeda. Is it such a leap to think that ISIS too might be a creation of the CIA, or the Saudis, or even Mossad? There must be a difference between allegations being antisemitic and simply damn stupid.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
People who don't turn out at European elections?not_on_fire said:Who are people who stuck with the Tories in Peterborough? Tory Remainers? Soft Brexiteers? Andrea Leadsom backers?
As ever, last month I think people got rather over excited at a low turn out election on a single issue with a single issue party standing.0 -
Well the 20-30% LD tip turned out to be Baloney! Och well0
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Whatever Farage has said or done, at least there's nothing to suggest the BXP candidate is any kind of racist.SouthamObserver said:
The choice in Peterborough was between a party led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with anti-Semites and one led by a man who has stood shoulder to shoulder with white supremacists. Those solely focusing on one of the two are not genuine anti-racists.Essexit said:
At the very least, her endorsement of a post theorising that Mossad funds ISIS shows a shocking level of naiveté. It probably indicates a lot worse though.JosiasJessop said:
TBF, I don't think she's an anti-Semite herself. She's a fool, and quite possibly politically naive, but what she did is not evidence of active anti-Semitism. It does make her someone I don't particularly want in parliament.Essexit said:Ho hum. Another anti-Semite elected for Labour.
What it does show is how easy it is for (supposedly) good people to fall into the traps laid by anti-Semites and racists - and which is why awareness is so important. And it's a short step from falling into that trap to becoming one.
It's like a left-wing version of red-pilling.0 -
I think last night shows that there are limits to the BP - one man band.
Cons deliver Brexit they will win the next GE against Jew hating Labour.0 -
In all the celebrations around D Day should we not recall that Rome fell to the Allies on June 4th 1944 and, after the Battles of Monte Cassino, the British, Americans and particularly the Poles were able to move further North up the 'leg' of Italy.
The Allies were in Western Europe before D Day!0 -
Also boosts Corbyn in his stance against a second referendum ..0
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This would have been one of the few by elections where I would have voted Labour. Though traditionally a Labour voter I'm just about old enough to remember the era Corbyn is trying to recreate and it's not a pretty one.
But at a time when we have a seriously racist party in our midst and a nasty xenophobic one grabbing it's coat tails far from seeing Corbyn as a racist I see him as one of the few bastions standing against it.1 -
Well I must say that is quite unexpected. Probably doesn't make getting the deal through Parliament any easier. Probably keeps Corbyn a little more secure than he deserves. Probably helps the less frothy candidates in the Tory leadership race. Shows that my reservations about the value of a ground game were just plain wrong.0
This discussion has been closed.