I think the biggest clue is Farage is there. Not sure he would be at the count if they were going to lose. The lab price was always too big imo but market at this stage must surely be about right. Enough film at the count can see which was the wind is blowing by now and influence the markets.
Who would have ever thought the Tories could be +2 to the dizzying heights of 18. If Brexit isn't resolved then it really could be Canada 1993 not Major 1997 that we see.
Who would have ever thought the Tories could be +2 to the dizzying heights of 18. If Brexit isn't resolved then it really could be Canada 1993 not Major 1997 that we see.
Weren’t we supposed to be afraid of them at one point?
I don't know why people think the postal votes will favour Labour.
Yes they have a ground operation, but it is only any good if you have votes to actually turnout.
Postal votes are used mainly by old Tories who will switch en masse to the brexit party tonight.
Generally yes - but Labour are also effective in delivering postal votes in certain cases. It would be nice to finger print some of the postal ballot papers to see how many people have handled them in addition to the named voter.....
The Tories are lucky this by-election isn't somewhere like Grantham. They'd be absolubtely monstered. Well they're getting monstered anyway but it's a Labour held seat so a bit hidden.
I don't know why people think the postal votes will favour Labour.
Yes they have a ground operation, but it is only any good if you have votes to actually turnout.
Postal votes are used mainly by old Tories who will switch en masse to the brexit party tonight.
Generally yes - but Labour are also effective in delivering postal votes in certain cases. It would be nice to finger print some of the postal ballot papers to see how many people have handled them in addition to the named voter.....
I don't know why people think the postal votes will favour Labour.
Yes they have a ground operation, but it is only any good if you have votes to actually turnout.
Postal votes are used mainly by old Tories who will switch en masse to the brexit party tonight.
Generally yes - but Labour are also effective in delivering postal votes in certain cases. It would be nice to finger print some of the postal ballot papers to see how many people have handled them in addition to the named voter.....
The same people on twitter seem to be predicting a speedy result and a close result, not realising they're incompatible. A close result means a recount, which would take a while to complete.
Note the Brexit Party do win Peterborough on this poll so we will see if that holds true tonight
If you look at the detailed constituency result it shows Peterborough as a Labour hold. I've discovered this with Electoral Calculus before; the summary does not agree with the detailed results.
Electoral Calculus gives Brexit Party 298, Labour 183, SNP 56, LDs 53, Tories 36.
Brexit Party largest party and Farage could thus become PM if the Tories back him with 334 seats combined and a majority of 6
Just trying to imagine the grin on his face as he steps into No 10...
If that looks close to happening he won't go in to the election leading just 1 or no MPs. There would be wholesale defections of the ERG and maybe others before that. The new PM must complete Brexit one way or the other and shoot this fox.
Electoral Calculus gives Brexit Party 298, Labour 183, SNP 56, LDs 53, Tories 36.
Brexit Party largest party and Farage could thus become PM if the Tories back him with 334 seats combined and a majority of 6
It is now very possible Farage could be PM. Unless the new Tory leader can alchemize some incredible No Deal but No Apocalypse Brexit.
Indeed - BETTING ADVICE - there must be value on wagering Farage as the premier-in-waiting.
Next Pm though? Or one after? BF market is next PM
Just cover him to the same profit as Boris I think, no need to spend any more than that (Was £2 for me) as cover for one of the weird Boris leader but can't get confidence of the house situations.
I don't know why people think the postal votes will favour Labour.
Yes they have a ground operation, but it is only any good if you have votes to actually turnout.
Postal votes are used mainly by old Tories who will switch en masse to the brexit party tonight.
Generally yes - but Labour are also effective in delivering postal votes in certain cases. It would be nice to finger print some of the postal ballot papers to see how many people have handled them in addition to the named voter.....
Postal vote is hugely exaggerated by pb.com
Sorry that should be postal vote fraud
Not saying there is out and out fraud - merely that postal voting isn't necessarily a secret ballot. Who knows what goes on behind closed doors - particularly with vulnerable women voters - when local leaders decide the 'agreed line'.
Note the Brexit Party do win Peterborough on this poll so we will see if that holds true tonight
If you look at the detailed constituency result it shows Peterborough as a Labour hold. I've discovered this with Electoral Calculus before; the summary does not agree with the detailed results.
The detailed constituency result is based on Electoral Calculus’ poll average, not on the one you input. On Baxter’s current poll average Peterborough stays Labour.
Note the Brexit Party do win Peterborough on this poll so we will see if that holds true tonight
If you look at the detailed constituency result it shows Peterborough as a Labour hold. I've discovered this with Electoral Calculus before; the summary does not agree with the detailed results.
The detailed constituency result is based on Electoral Calculus’ poll average, not on the one you input. On his current poll average Peterborough stays Labour.
Stewart Jackson on Sky News: Tories facing extinction.
If the Brexit Party wins and are leading in the national polls, why would hardline ERG Brexiteers mess around with Boris Johnson when they could defect to the Brexit Party and force a General Election while the Tories are on the canvas?
Stewart Jackson on Sky News: Tories facing extinction.
If the Brexit Party wins and are leading in the national polls, why would hardline ERG Brexiteers mess around with Boris Johnson when they could defect to the Brexit Party and force a General Election while the Tories are on the canvas?
Stewart Jackson on Sky News: Tories facing extinction.
If the Brexit Party wins and are leading in the national polls, why would hardline ERG Brexiteers mess around with Boris Johnson when they could defect to the Brexit Party and force a General Election while the Tories are on the canvas?
Not just ERG the vast majority of Tories will now vote for Boris or they face being eclipsed by the Brexit Party
Think I want a very narrow Labour win. Probably less likely we'll get a VONC and a GE if Labour win. I would imagine a Brexit Party fruitcake will be frothing at the mouth to have a GE, even if it puts Corbyn into No 10 by a landslide and kills off any prospect of the UK leaving the EU forever and a day...
I've cashed out. Make a bit if TBP win, lose a bit if Labour win, but not far off breakeven either way. Given my frankly poor punting on the by-election it's much more than I deserve. Lessons to be learned at The Investment Bank of Quincel.
Yes, I appreciate it isn't big news but I am waiting to hear if my LD/Con match bet has been won. Got evens on the LDs, Ladbrokes closed at 1/2 in their favour but I was secretly worrying me and the market were wrong.
Comments
Yes they have a ground operation, but it is only any good if you have votes to actually turnout.
Postal votes are used mainly by old Tories who will switch en masse to the brexit party tonight.
https://www.twitter.com/britainelects/status/1136780369737453569
😂😂😂😂
Who would have ever thought the Tories could be +2 to the dizzying heights of 18. If Brexit isn't resolved then it really could be Canada 1993 not Major 1997 that we see.
It is extraordinary how these polls now seem ordinary.
https://twitter.com/LisaForbes_/status/1136739713614790656
Brexit Party largest party and Farage could thus become PM if the Tories back him with 334 seats combined and a majority of 6
https://www.electoralcalculus.co.uk/cgi-bin/usercode.py?CON=18&LAB=20&LIB=20&UKIP=1&Green=9&ChUK=0&Brexit=26&TVCON=&TVLAB=&TVLIB=&TVUKIP=&TVGreen=&TVChUK=&TVBrexit=&SCOTCON=&SCOTLAB=&SCOTLIB=&SCOTUKIP=&SCOTGreen=&SCOTChUK=&SCOTBrexit=&SCOTNAT=&display=AllChanged&regorseat=(none)&boundary=2017base.
Note the Brexit Party do win Peterborough on this poll so we will see if that holds true tonight
Indeed - BETTING ADVICE - there must be value on wagering Farage as the premier-in-waiting.
That’s why if they do win it would be a bigger deal than it appears.
Seems a lot of mixed messages?
https://twitter.com/ianchild88/status/1136786161786118144
https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1136786799337062400
Oh wait, it was the ERG.
This must be maddening for those Labour supporters who want to see the back of Corbyn's leadership.