politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have

MarqueeMark said:

Peterborough prediction: the only way Brexit Party don't win is if the Tories put in a surprisingly strong showing. Given they will have been working this seat for months ahead of the recall petition and the recall petition itself as a potential gain, I suspect they will deliver on the upside....

Four parties in the twenties? Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber '92 anyone?

My prediction

Brexit Party 35%, LDs 20%, Labour 18%, Tories 10%, Greens 5%, UKIP 1%, CUK 1%

Casino_Royale said:

MarqueeMark said:

kinabalu said:

Quite a move towards Labour for Peterborough on Betfair. 8.6 yesterday. 5.5 now.

Still quite long for a two-horse race that is likely going to be won by less than a length.....

I expect to lose but have laid the Brexit Party in Peterborough at current odds.

Too much unpredictability in politics at the moment.

I think that's right - my guess is something like BXP 35, Lab 29, LD 13, Con 10, others 13, but the odds have been silly, and Lab still looks a bit long (about 4 would be plausible). I'll be surprised if Foxy's prediction of a LD second (and Mike's of 20-30% LD vote) are right, but who knows these days.

It's all a good test of how important a ground game is in these turbulent times -Tories and Labour must have amazing contact rates since the seat has been marginal forever, while I assume BXP are following the UKIP strategy of high-vis milling around, which doesn't usually work. They have certainly sold the expectation of a win and will look stalled if they lose even by a small margin.

Recidivist said:

JosiasJessop said:

That Brexit Party leaflet says: "You can change history on June 6th."

Surely that should be: "You can create history on June 6th." ?

(pedant mode?)

Unless they are planning to turn Britain into a totalitarian state where they rewrite history?

Farage has been rewriting history for years. The slogan is entirely appropriate.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=fNCwcTu9U6U

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Roger said:

matt said:

Roger said:

The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

......singing about German bombers....'

Well there's a surprise!

You have the option of not listening.

You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.

I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.

D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

So nothing in common with Brexit...

I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.

One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.

IMHO, once you get the logistics right, you're already half way towards winning.

One ex-US officer put it to me "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."

Recidivist said:

Unless they are planning to turn Britain into a totalitarian state where they rewrite history?

They are cheering the end of democracy as we know it...

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1136390958902386688

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1136542926996201474

Latest numbers:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1feCjt98HJcY9tlc5Zx78ZoSOC2fN-j0vRVFD5eUTbUE/edit#gid=0

My prediction of how the undecideds will vote gives:

Johnson 98, Hunt 52, Raab 46, Gove 45, Stewart 21.

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Roger said:

matt said:

Roger said:

The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

......singing about German bombers....'

Well there's a surprise!

You have the option of not listening.

You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.

I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.

D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

So nothing in common with Brexit...

I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.

One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.

IMHO, once you get the logistics right, you're already half way towards winning.

One ex-US officer put it to me "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."

And the better man would study both.

Scott_P said:

Recidivist said:

Unless they are planning to turn Britain into a totalitarian state where they rewrite history?

They are cheering the end of democracy as we know it...

https://twitter.com/DouglasCarswell/status/1136390958902386688

Yeh, because People's Democracy has always worked out well in history hasn't it Douglas.

Mr. JS, are those five (Johnson, Hunt, Raab, Gove, Stewart) the only ones you expect to contest the first ballot, given the higher MP support threshold required?

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

matt said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.

It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.

Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.

I supported it on here at the time.

The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.

Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while nor being as toxic as the dementia tax

The thing to do is to put adult social care spending under the NHS.

The government can then claim to have increased NHS spending.

And the NHS is perhaps the only thing people will accept an increase in taxation for.

That has already happened, under the "Better Care Together" local plans.

This is ourr local one:

http://www.bettercareleicester.nhs.uk/

So you are correct. Pretend that there is increased NHS funding, but siphon off a slice to support hard pressed social care. A good programme, but reallya bit of sleight of hand behind it, to move NHS money to concils. It strarted under Hunt as I recall.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. JS, are those five (Johnson, Hunt, Raab, Gove, Stewart) the only ones you expect to contest the first ballot, given the higher MP support threshold required?

There's a pretty good analysis of how the the Tory MP selectorate relates to the candidates at
https://medium.com/@DavidJeffery_/what-do-we-know-about-the-conservative-party-leadership-election-first-round-ed0f74f83308

Nigel_Foremain said:

I have just realised the real message of the Brexit Party's arrow! It gives away the Faragists' intention to move Britain to the far right.

You are doing it all wrong; the arrow is symbolic of returning the country to the good old days of Agincourt where our Welsh English bowmen gave those pesky Europeans a hiding.

Mr. Wheel, the archers were Welsh and English.

Also, there were plenty of Gascons at Poitiers.

And the idea of a common European identity only existed in the concept of Christendom.

“Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.”

English footie fans making comments about the war and the Germans before big games has been going on for decades.

It’s nothing new nor a ‘sign of the times’!

Theuniondivvie said:

That moment when elected politicians become indistinguishable from some rando arsehole plopping out inanities. Well done, social media!

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/1136393050916347906

I think he must be mixing Merkel up with the leader of AfD.

Theuniondivvie said:

Sean_F said:

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Roger said:

matt said:

Roger said:

The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

......singing about German bombers....'

Well there's a surprise!

You have the option of not listening.

You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.

I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.

D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

So nothing in common with Brexit...

I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.

One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.

IMHO, once you get the logistics right, you're already half way towards winning.

One ex-US officer put it to me "Amateurs study tactics. Professionals study logistics."

It's arguable that transporting cream cakes from Chicago to the Latin Valley is getting the logistics right. All that is is a symptom of the massive, massive economic advantage the US had, and the waste it was able to get away with. I daresay cream cakes weren't much help in Vietnam.

I read somewhere that more than 85% of US military personnel in Vietnam were prividing logistics. Less than 15% were grunts in the jungle.

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

matt said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.

It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.

Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.

I supported it on here at the time.

The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.

Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while nor being as toxic as the dementia tax

The thing to do is to put adult social care spending under the NHS.

The government can then claim to have increased NHS spending.

And the NHS is perhaps the only thing people will accept an increase in taxation for.

That has already happened, under the "Better Care Together" local plans.

This is ourr local one:

http://www.bettercareleicester.nhs.uk/

So you are correct. Pretend that there is increased NHS funding, but siphon off a slice to support hard pressed social care. A good programme, but reallya bit of sleight of hand behind it, to move NHS money to concils. It strarted under Hunt as I recall.

It did I remember meeting with DCC when first introduced.

The monies were not ring fenced and the Council called it the pot hole fund.

Never trust the Tories with the NHS

Foxy said:

another_richard said:

HYUFD said:

Foxy said:

DavidL said:

matt said:

DavidL said:

rottenborough said:

Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.

It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.

Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.

I supported it on here at the time.

The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.

Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while nor being as toxic as the dementia tax

The thing to do is to put adult social care spending under the NHS.

The government can then claim to have increased NHS spending.

And the NHS is perhaps the only thing people will accept an increase in taxation for.

That has already happened, under the "Better Care Together" local plans.

This is ourr local one:

http://www.bettercareleicester.nhs.uk/

So you are correct. Pretend that there is increased NHS funding, but siphon off a slice to support hard pressed social care. A good programme, but reallya bit of sleight of hand behind it, to move NHS money to concils. It strarted under Hunt as I recall.

Makes sense for it to fall under NHS in a way: good social care keeps people out of expensive hospital beds.

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1136546209240375296

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1136546209240375296

I have a big green number next to him !

What has Boris been doing for the last few days?

Nigel_Foremain said:

I have just realised the real message of the Brexit Party's arrow! It gives away the Faragists' intention to move Britain to the far right.

As pointed out yesterday by Pulpstar it's a remarkably powerful piece of visual propaganda. The commentariat tend to concentrate on the fact that the arrow points directly to the box for voting - and yes there is that - but the logo as a whole does much more than that. You have to back a long way to find an example as striking and effective. It's growing on me TBF - which is just as well since I fear it may soon become ubiquitous.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Owls, the Conservatives have been in office for the majority of the NHS' existence. The idea it's at imminent risk is not a persuasive one.

After all it has been two whole days since one careless word from President Trump caused a blue meltdown on the NHS. Well, nearly two whole days.
https://twitter.com/MattHancock/status/1135909336310460419

AlastairMeeks said:

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1136546209240375296

I have a big green number next to him !

Presumably because like me you haven’t been able to sell it yet?

Not that big the truth is in reality it's worth about £4 at the moment ^^;

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1136545076702720002

But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.

It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.

How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?

How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?

Hang on, is parliament not sitting between now and the end of the Tory leadership election?

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

What has Boris been doing for the last few days?

Wining and dining Tory MPs ?

Well, at least it gives his mistresses a break.

JosiasJessop said:

Pulpstar said:

JosiasJessop said:

What has Boris been doing for the last few days?

Wining and dining Tory MPs ?

Well, at least it gives his mistresses a break.

I blame Ken for Boris' apparent popularity. Were it not for Ken, Boris would never be seen as such a winner.

NickPalmer said:

Slackbladder said:

DecrepitJohnL said:

12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.

Of course you are. Restriction only applies to TV coverage.

But why would candidates for the leadership want to campaign in Peterborough if they can't get on the telly...

Oh, I am starting to see the point.

DavidL said:

Foxy said:

Roger said:

matt said:

Roger said:

The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

......singing about German bombers....'

Well there's a surprise!

You have the option of not listening.

You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.

I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.

D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

So nothing in common with Brexit...

I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.

I was watching some of the coverage yesterday morning whilst beating myself to near death in the gym. The sheer scale of the operation was truly incredible. The landing force needed 8,000 tonnes of fuel a day initially transported by jerry can. One of the Mulberry harbours had 244k cubic metres of concrete. The WW2 Americans were just absolute geniuses at logistics.

One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.

I've seen stats that said that for every front line soldier, the Germans had 3 REMF, the British 5, and the Americans 10. Their logistical chain was unprecedented and would bring up combat essentials like coca cola.

Pulpstar said:

rottenborough said:

https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1136546209240375296

I have a big green number next to him !

I thought it was worht a fiver @ 350.

I remember the last when a candidate in a leadership race had the numbers to make the voting rounds and was trading at that...

JosiasJessop said:

What has Boris been doing for the last few days?

So we trust you to ensure that your minister does nothing incisive or divisive over the next few weeks; avoids anything controversial; expresses no firm opinion about anything at all.
Sir Humphrey & Sir Arnold to Bernard as they plan Jim Hacker's election to Prime Minister.

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning everyone

See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.

The sad thing is that they head off to major football competitions which we never seem to make to any more Malcolm. Looking forward to Scotland's women showing the way though.

Sure we would be well behaved David, and hopefully women do well, be more dignified support than the mens one for sure.

DavidL said:

malcolmg said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning everyone

See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.

The sad thing is that they head off to major football competitions which we never seem to make to any more Malcolm. Looking forward to Scotland's women showing the way though.

Oh come on David, the whole nations league thing is a way to gerrymander teams like Scotland into the Euros.

https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1136562263408562176

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1136545076702720002

But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.

It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.

How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?

How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?

The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?

DavidL said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/ProfChalmers/status/1136542926996201474

One is tempted to ask Francois what he did in the war, I mean referendum. His contribution completely escaped my attention and I was paying a lot more attention than most. Gove, on the other hand, did surprisingly well when put forward for the debate/question section. He was calm, reasonable, safe, apparently pragmatic. Probably won more votes for leave than any ravings in the back corner or even Farage's famous posters.

What was pragmatic about saying that if we vote Leave, we hold all the cards and we can dictate the terms in Britain’s interest? It was Gove’s demagoguery that was one of the causes of the current mess.

OblitusSumMe said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1136545076702720002

But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.

It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.

How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?

How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?

The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?

The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

The usual suspects were out last night on here.

AlastairMeeks said:

OblitusSumMe said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1136545076702720002

But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.

It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.

How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?

How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?

The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?

The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.

Actually it's remainers who are talking up this possibility.

AlastairMeeks said:

OblitusSumMe said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1136545076702720002

But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.

It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.

How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?

How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?

The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?

The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.

Honestly it is incredible. The Conservative Party, the supposed rock solid defender of liberties and preserver of our institutions, is opening discussing closing down parliament and effectively launching a coup.

Truly, the shark has been jumped.

Pulpstar said:

I doubt replacing the speaker would affect the non progation of parliament, as I expect Lindsay Hoyle would get the 40 quorum too.

I think it was Lord Falconer who said the other day that the courts would block a progation in this manner.

But honestly, candidates from the Conservative Party are discussing putting the Queen in an extremely difficult position. It is just insane. Previous generations of Tories will be turning in their grave.

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

The usual suspects were out last night on here.

"And across Europe"

In other words it's nothing to do with Brexit and everything to do with their failing ICE business model.

In other breaking news Brexit means we have no more lamplighters or chimneysweeps.

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

That moment when elected politicians become indistinguishable from some rando arsehole plopping out inanities. Well done, social media!

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/1136393050916347906

As the great Bob Dylan put it:

Though they murdered 6 million in the ovens they fried,
The Germans now too have God on their side.

He needs to read some history after 1945.

From the governor of a former slave state, as well.

rottenborough said:

AlastairMeeks said:

OblitusSumMe said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

eek said:

tlg86 said:

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/1136545076702720002

But that's not true, is it? Parliament is still sovereign and the MPs can VONC the government.

It is true - candidates are discussing proroguing Parliament to force through a No Deal departure and the next PM will be chosen by the (rather righter wing) members of the Conservative Party.

While it's unlikely that the most insane right wing candidate will win and close Parliament until November you cannot claim some candidates haven't discussed it.

How does closing parliament happen? Could Tory MPs not act to no confidence the government before the winner of the contest becomes PM?

In fact, could they not do it if Raab makes the final 2?

How do you attend Parliament if it's not in session that day / week?

The Prime Minister cannot stop MPs attending Parliament if the Speaker agrees to recall them. The quorum is only 40. What will the PM do? Arrest them?

The wilder Leavers have visions of Boris Johnson riding the no deal Brexit bomb like Doctor Strangelove.

Honestly it is incredible. The Conservative Party, the supposed rock solid defender of liberties and preserver of our institutions, is opening discussing closing down parliament and effectively launching a coup.

Truly, the shark has been jumped.

Also the Conservative party: once Britain has Brexited, all those Remainers who have jumped ship to the Lib Dems will come back, persuaded that we are in fact normal rational people.

You have to wonder what they are smoking.

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

The usual suspects were out last night on here.

The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.

Predictions were made that Brexit would be terrible for the car industry in Britain before the referendum result and they were wafted away as part of Project Fear.

The car industry in Britain is going through a terrible time following the vote to Leave and Leavers firmly assert that is Nothing To Do With Brexit.

Still, blue passports.

DavidL said:

Theuniondivvie said:

That moment when elected politicians become indistinguishable from some rando arsehole plopping out inanities. Well done, social media!

https://twitter.com/GovMikeHuckabee/status/1136393050916347906

As the great Bob Dylan put it:

Though they murdered 6 million in the ovens they fried,
The Germans now too have God on their side.

Indeed. And.

The cavalries charged and the Indians died
For the country was young and had God on its side.

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

The usual suspects were out last night on here.

The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.

Yes it's probably just a coincidence that the prediction came to pass:

Ford warns of plant closures to combat $1bn Brexit blow
Finance chief says price of cars in UK will rise to claw back losses from weaker sterling
Ford is considering closing plants in the UK and across Europe in response to Britain’s vote to leave the EU, as it forecast a $1bn hit to its business over the next two years.

FT, Peter Campbell, Motor Industry Correspondent JULY 28, 2016

MarqueeMark said:

AlastairMeeks said:

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/1136554052660146177

The usual suspects were out last night on here.

The usual remainers were here blaiming it on Brexit without a shred of evidence, because they so painfully want it to be so.

"Without a shred of evidence", what, like quotes from the business 3 years ago saying "if Brexit goes ahead we will close factories". I mean, the evidence is their words. Now, if you think car manufacturers are actually part of project fear and are only closing their factories out of ideological pro EU zeal and not business factors created by an environment they warned about years in advance; okay. The lizard people will see you now.

Scott_P said:

https://twitter.com/gavinesler/status/1136562263408562176

I wonder if TBP MEPs will start defecting as happened to UKIP before (if) we Brexit.