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SystemSystem Posts: 12,760
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have its third MP in two years all from different parties

Brexit party leaflet Peterborough

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  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    edited June 2019
    1. Treble first I think.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,720
    Hello ?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    One poll had the Tories on 17%. Not a chance I reckon - in the midst of a leadership contest on top of everything else to boot why would they not stay home or protest vote with someone else?

    Labour surely have some chance, but it does seem the BXP's to lose.

    Still holding out hope for a five way marginal though.
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    Third like Richard Leonard.

    (Edit: ok, make that fourth.)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    oxfordsimon said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1136318685377904640

    Indeed it is john, indeed it is.

    What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
    There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.

    I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
    It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.

    Oh to not live in interesting times again
    Give it 10 years.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,720
    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Hmm. Seems an outlier?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,327
    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Texas was already trending that way. The polling suggests that if Biden doesn't make it, Warren is leading the rest of the pack.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    I think Labour will win tomorrow. I just can't see people voting the same way for a Westminster seat as they do for Euros. I could be wrong but it seems like one of those times people get carried away with the narrative of big change.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,720
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Hmm. Seems an outlier?
    No, there just hasn’t been much head to head presidential polling for Texas yet.
    (The other recent poll had Biden ahead by 1%.)

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,720
    j
    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1136318685377904640

    Indeed it is john, indeed it is.

    What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
    There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.

    I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
    It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.

    Oh to not live in interesting times again
    Give it 10 years.
    That should see off Corbyn. The times will remain interesting, though.

  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Freggles said:

    I think Labour will win tomorrow. I just can't see people voting the same way for a Westminster seat as they do for Euros. I could be wrong but it seems like one of those times people get carried away with the narrative of big change.

    I suppose it's not impossible. Relatively speaking it is one of their least weak seats in the Eastern region (as evidenced both by their winning it in 2017, and the slightly better than derisory vote share they managed to hold onto in the Euros.) Regardless, we shall know in a little over 24 hours.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,851
    I think Brexit will win, but Labour will come a reasonable 2nd and the LibDems will underperform in this one.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    That is a Lib Dem tastic bar chart!
    I was suggesting two horse race as a Labour slogan for the Euros. Not sure blithely identifying your strongest opponent makes much sense when you are in front.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,327
    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    Freggles said:

    I think Labour will win tomorrow. I just can't see people voting the same way for a Westminster seat as they do for Euros. I could be wrong but it seems like one of those times people get carried away with the narrative of big change.

    Differential turnout plus an exhausted electorate may well be the key factors

    3 opportunities to vote in just over a month must be leaving the voters somewhat fatigued. 4 in 3 months if you include the petition

    So voter enthusiasm will be important.

    I can see some wanting to punish Labour for selecting badly last time
    I can see protest being a factor

    The coverage this week hasn't been helpful for the Labour candidate.

    I just can't see her winning under these circumstances. She certainly doesn't deserve to.

    Plus losing this seat puts more pressure on Labour MPs to find some courage
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,894
    If Labour win I'll be wondering why on earth their odds were so long.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,157
    williamglenn said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Texas was already trending that way. The polling suggests that if Biden doesn't make it, Warren is leading the rest of the pack.
    Little difference between Warren, Sanders, O'Rourke and Buttigieg, all on 44-45%, Harris and Castro further back on 43% but Biden is still the only candidate who actually leads Trump in Texas as he reaches 48%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,157
    edited June 2019
    NickPalmer said:

    I think Brexit will win, but Labour will come a reasonable 2nd and the LibDems will underperform in this one.

    Probably but the LDs were only 2% behind Labour in Peterborough in the Euros with the Brexit Party over 20% ahead so the real battle could be between the LDs and Labour for second and the Remainer vote with the Tories likely a bit further back with most of their Leave voters casting a protest vote for the Brexit Party.


    If the Brexit Party did win with the LDs second that would be an absolute crushing blow to both main parties after the disaster of the European elections and would further boost Boris' chances in the Tory leadership race as well as likely precipitating a Starmer leadership bid in Labour
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    edited June 2019
    Charles said:

    viewcode said:



    Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
    Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

    (Edit: duplicate removed)

    Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

    Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
    My point was that prior to the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as a reason to Leave the EU, but since the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as something that would have happened anyway. Even worse, they are frequently the same job losses... :(
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Artist said:

    If Labour win I'll be wondering why on earth their odds were so long.

    How would it compare to some of their gains in 2017?

    I'm not particularly counting on Labour winning it but I think that is heavily influenced by people on this site, I'd imagine it to be a closeish 2 horse race. Well that and the betting odds leading me away from it...
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1136318685377904640

    Indeed it is john, indeed it is.

    What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
    There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.

    I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
    It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.

    Oh to not live in interesting times again
    Give it 10 years.
    Unfortunately I am not immortal
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Certainly suggests Beto might make a good VP pick. If the Dems could flip Texas, it would change the entire electoral map.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,406
    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:



    Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
    Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

    (Edit: duplicate removed)

    Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

    Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
    My point was that prior to the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as a reason the Leave the EU, but since the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as something that would have happened anyway. Even worse, they are frequently the same job losses... :(
    Citation(s) needed??
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1136318685377904640

    Indeed it is john, indeed it is.

    What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
    There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.

    I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
    It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.

    Oh to not live in interesting times again
    Give it 10 years.
    Unfortunately I am not immortal
    TBH judging by the republicans in the US it is the new card to play, so every Labour leader is going to be anti semitic from now on, like Corbyn they won't actually be.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    Artist said:

    If Labour win I'll be wondering why on earth their odds were so long.

    Their odds are too long. I don't expect them to win, but they are the value bet imho. The LDs, like TBP have very little local organisation. This may be a GOTV election, and, as others have noted, voter fatigue will be heavy.
    Ironically, a reasonable showing from the Tories would really help Labour.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:



    Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
    Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

    (Edit: duplicate removed)

    Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

    Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
    My point was that prior to the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as a reason the Leave the EU, but since the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as something that would have happened anyway. Even worse, they are frequently the same job losses... :(
    Citation(s) needed??
    This is't Wikipedia, Sunil, it's real life.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,148
    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 56,406
    viewcode said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:



    Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
    Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

    (Edit: duplicate removed)

    Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

    Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
    My point was that prior to the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as a reason the Leave the EU, but since the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as something that would have happened anyway. Even worse, they are frequently the same job losses... :(
    Citation(s) needed??
    This is't Wikipedia, Sunil, it's real life.
    But you can give some examples of these things you were citing?
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited June 2019
    rottenborough said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Hmm. Seems an outlier?
    It's not, several polls have shown Texas to be competitive. We shouldn't be surprised really, given the demographics Texas would probably be fairly reliably Democrat were it not for Latino turnout being reliably below white. Trump won it by a little over 10% in 2016, so I'm skeptical that it will flip in 2020, Texas is always the state Democrats big hope but always seems further away than they think, but it's far from unthinkable. And given Biden is currently leading Trump handily in national polls having some polls showing him ahead in Texas isn't that surprising.


  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    rcs1000 said:

    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.

    Isn't it 4?

    Labour - TIG - Change Uk - The Alternative
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Is Casino Royale still agitating for bans for PBers who refer to David Cameron as a dickhead?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Off topic - The final Chernobyl episode "Vichnaya Pamyat" has an average 10 rating on IMDB with 17,516 reviews in so far.

    Chernobyl is simply superb and lives up to the hype.

    It treats its audience like intelligent grown-ups and gives them the technical detail they want to know.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1AwVKENimQ
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,148
    oxfordsimon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.

    Isn't it 4?

    Labour - TIG - Change Uk - The Alternative
    FOUR! And likely five soon enough.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.

    And they've managed it without inconveniencing voters or wasting public money on elections.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Certainly suggests Beto might make a good VP pick. If the Dems could flip Texas, it would change the entire electoral map.
    If the Dems flip TX, they win.

    It really is that simple.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,310
    I'd guess Farage's fruitcakes have got it right. A two horse race between his donkey and the Lib Dems. Why would anyone vote Labour when even Corbyn doesn't know where he stands on Brexit. Tory is also a wasted vote for similar reasons.

    The Future's Bright. The future's Orange
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:



    Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
    Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

    (Edit: duplicate removed)

    Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

    Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
    My point was that prior to the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as a reason the Leave the EU, but since the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as something that would have happened anyway. Even worse, they are frequently the same job losses... :(
    Citation(s) needed??
    This is't Wikipedia, Sunil, it's real life.
    But you can give some examples of these things you were citing?
    :)
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    Incidentally...

    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/study-russia-cybersecurity-twitter-1353543
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    _Anazina_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Certainly suggests Beto might make a good VP pick. If the Dems could flip Texas, it would change the entire electoral map.
    If the Dems flip TX, they win.

    It really is that simple.
    Yep. Which is why Beto, or indeed, any Texan Dem for VP. It is worth it on the off chance.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2019
    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Biden-O’Rourke is probably the winning ticket.

    But will the Democrats have the good sense?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    dixiedean said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    dixiedean said:

    Nigelb said:

    Poll has Biden beating Trump in Texas:
    https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/05/biden-beating-trump-texas-poll-1355285

    Obviously that could change, but it does demonstrate the state might be winnable for the Democrats, and further cements Biden’s electability argument. (O’Rourke doesn’t poll nearly as well, for instance.)

    Certainly suggests Beto might make a good VP pick. If the Dems could flip Texas, it would change the entire electoral map.
    If the Dems flip TX, they win.

    It really is that simple.
    Yep. Which is why Beto, or indeed, any Texan Dem for VP. It is worth it on the off chance.
    Yes, sorry, I’m agreeing with you!

    I think Biden-O’Rourke is the winning ticket.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Biden-O’Rourke is probably the winning ticket.

    But will the Democrats have the good sense?

    Gotta be Biden.

    But he has to pick a female veep.

    I would be astounded if he does not.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    oxfordsimon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.

    Isn't it 4?

    Labour - TIG - Change Uk - The Alternative
    I'm sure he's doing it for a bet. Or it is some kind of situationist happening funded by the Arts Council.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,327
    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Do you not rate Warren?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    rottenborough said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Biden-O’Rourke is probably the winning ticket.

    But will the Democrats have the good sense?

    Gotta be Biden.

    But he has to pick a female veep.

    I would be astounded if he does not.
    I think that’s right morally, but electorally I think he’s better with Beto.

    That said, Biden-Amy K is a decent second best.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    dixiedean said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Ha! That's nothing. Streatham has had an MP from three different parties in the last six months.

    Isn't it 4?

    Labour - TIG - Change Uk - The Alternative
    I'm sure he's doing it for a bet. Or it is some kind of situationist happening funded by the Arts Council.

    😂
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    brokenwheel said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    Labour might hold, but surely the Euro elections (and locals, indeed) suggest their block vote isn't as reliable as it used to be?
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,850
    rottenborough said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Biden-O’Rourke is probably the winning ticket.

    But will the Democrats have the good sense?

    Gotta be Biden.

    But he has to pick a female veep.

    I would be astounded if he does not.
    With his reputation, she would need a permanent chaperone
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    98.2% counted in Denmark

    Social Democrats 26.16

    Denmark's Liberal Party 23.56

    Danish People's Party 8.85

    Danish Social Liberal Party 8.42

    Socialist People's Party 7.63

    Red Green Alliance 6.71

    Conservative People's Party 6.66

    The Alternative 2.86

    The New Right 2.38

    Liberal Alliance 2.31

    Hard Line 1.8

    Christian Democrats 1.75
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2019
    Quincel said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    Labour might hold, but surely the Euro elections (and locals, indeed) suggest their block vote isn't as reliable as it used to be?
    Or that their bloc vote doesn’t give much of a **** about european elections...

    The majority of their lost support will likely have been south of the Nene.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,157
    williamglenn said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Do you not rate Warren?
    Kerry in a skirt
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Amazing that two veterans of the D-Day parachute landings have parachuted in once again, at 94 and 95. That really is something.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,310
    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 131,157
    brokenwheel said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    That is quite a prediction, have you been to Peterborough? Though it is true to say even on current polls the Labour Party should hold Peterborough
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 17,181
    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    It was me. It really is good isn't it. I'm not usually a laugh out loud person but there are some fantastic lines in this.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,148
    brokenwheel said:

    Quincel said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    Labour might hold, but surely the Euro elections (and locals, indeed) suggest their block vote isn't as reliable as it used to be?
    Or that their bloc vote doesn’t give much of a **** about european elections...

    The majority of their lost support will likely have been south of the Nene.
    Shall we have a spread on BXP-Lab vote share?

    You think that Lab will win. I think BXP will. I believe the forecast currently has it as BXP +4, so shall we say 10 pound per point?

    So, if Lab win by 1%, then that's a five point spread, and I pay you £50. If, on the other hand, BXP wins by 9%, then you owe me £50. Obviously, if it's a BXP win by three points, than you win a tenner, etc.

    How about it?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,720
    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    On the other hand, having an extraordinarily well developed sense of humour might be the only way for someone not brain dead to survive such an experience ?
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    It being a pretty big and mostly wealthy (but not near world's wealthiest) family I assume they would have bought some kind of war bonds or something... not quite the single handed funding your implying though...

    I think the crazies line these days is that Hitler was fine as long as he stayed within his own borders...

    More of a Conservative thing though...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    HYUFD said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    That is quite a prediction, have you been to Peterborough? Though it is true to say even on current polls the Labour Party should hold Peterborough
    During the campaign? No. It’s just a gut feeling from the various rumours I’ve heard.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    Cracking stuff.

    "Melania Trump, whose miserable countenance seems living testament to the old adage that when you marry for money, you earn every penny."

    :lol: x 10

  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    What I can't work out in Peterborough is how many voter Lab are losing to the Lib Dems.

    Which is why I am not playing the market.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 26,436
    rottenborough said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Biden-O’Rourke is probably the winning ticket.

    But will the Democrats have the good sense?

    Gotta be Biden.

    But he has to pick a female veep.

    I would be astounded if he does not.
    It has to be a fat African-American woman (Leslie Jones in a fat suit). They then get handcuffed together and have to run for the border before they get cut down by Boss Hogg (Donald Trump) and Sheriff Steve "Stevo" Bannon (Baron Harkonnen with bleeding sores). They argue but with humour and learn life lessons. Trump shoots "Stevo" in the ass and shakes his fist.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    TheJezziah said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    It being a pretty big and mostly wealthy (but not near world's wealthiest) family I assume they would have bought some kind of war bonds or something... not quite the single handed funding your implying though...

    I think the crazies line these days is that Hitler was fine as long as he stayed within his own borders...

    More of a Conservative thing though...
    I thought the current Left line was Hitler was ok until he went mad later on?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    98.2% counted in Denmark

    Social Democrats 26.16

    Denmark's Liberal Party 23.56

    Danish People's Party 8.85

    Danish Social Liberal Party 8.42

    Socialist People's Party 7.63

    Red Green Alliance 6.71

    Conservative People's Party 6.66

    The Alternative 2.86

    The New Right 2.38

    Liberal Alliance 2.31

    Hard Line 1.8

    Christian Democrats 1.75

    Polling success klaxon! OK, not spot on, but they actually managed to predict the winners this time. Margin at the lower end of expectations, but well within range for once.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    williamglenn said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    I think Joe Biden is probably the only realistic Dem nominee who beats Trumpton. Neutralises a lot of the East Coast liberal nonsense and probably ties up a lots of the skilled manual, older male Trump Democrats.

    Do you not rate Warren?
    Sadly I think h
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    It was me. It really is good isn't it. I'm not usually a laugh out loud person but there are some fantastic lines in this.
    🎩 tip
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    dixiedean said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    98.2% counted in Denmark

    Social Democrats 26.16

    Denmark's Liberal Party 23.56

    Danish People's Party 8.85

    Danish Social Liberal Party 8.42

    Socialist People's Party 7.63

    Red Green Alliance 6.71

    Conservative People's Party 6.66

    The Alternative 2.86

    The New Right 2.38

    Liberal Alliance 2.31

    Hard Line 1.8

    Christian Democrats 1.75

    Polling success klaxon! OK, not spot on, but they actually managed to predict the winners this time. Margin at the lower end of expectations, but well within range for once.
    Alternative Party?

    Has Chukka moved to Denmark?

    More seriously, Greens not so big as other parts of Europe.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    rcs1000 said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Quincel said:

    brokenwheel said:

    Given it should be TBP’s strategy here to talk up the Lib Dem’s I find it weird they decided to still make that leaflet a TBP/Labour race.

    Anyway, i’d say Labour hold. They have the ground game and a reliable bloc vote. From what i’ve seen TBP’s ground game is as clueless as UKIP’s ever was, which will especially hurt them as their supporters are going to be far more apathetic. Tory vote may hold up better than expected, Lib Dems will improve a bit but probably not trouble the Tories.

    Labour might hold, but surely the Euro elections (and locals, indeed) suggest their block vote isn't as reliable as it used to be?
    Or that their bloc vote doesn’t give much of a **** about european elections...

    The majority of their lost support will likely have been south of the Nene.
    Shall we have a spread on BXP-Lab vote share?

    You think that Lab will win. I think BXP will. I believe the forecast currently has it as BXP +4, so shall we say 10 pound per point?

    So, if Lab win by 1%, then that's a five point spread, and I pay you £50. If, on the other hand, BXP wins by 9%, then you owe me £50. Obviously, if it's a BXP win by three points, than you win a tenner, etc.

    How about it?
    Nah I’m far too chicken for that :p
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,148
    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    rottenborough said:

    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    Cracking stuff.

    "Melania Trump, whose miserable countenance seems living testament to the old adage that when you marry for money, you earn every penny."

    :lol: x 10

    That's the only good line in it. The rest is as dull as ditch-water, especially given the absolute hilarity of the material. But, this being the Guardian, it has to be twisted into a mind-numbingly tedious anti-British rant, as boring and predictable as most of the Guardian cartoons.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rottenborough said:

    TheJezziah said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    It being a pretty big and mostly wealthy (but not near world's wealthiest) family I assume they would have bought some kind of war bonds or something... not quite the single handed funding your implying though...

    I think the crazies line these days is that Hitler was fine as long as he stayed within his own borders...

    More of a Conservative thing though...
    I thought the current Left line was Hitler was ok until he went mad later on?
    "if Hitler just wanted to make Germany great and have things run well, OK, fine."

    "The problem is that he wanted – he had dreams outside of Germany."

    Just the foreign policy was a bit problematic... the right wing domestic policy, xenophobia and nationalism is all right up some Conservatives alley...

    Not really a mantra shared by the left of politics.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 62,148
    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    If someone could screengrab this forecast and then use it to laugh at me tomorrow evening, that would be great
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,675
    viewcode said:

    Charles said:

    viewcode said:



    Leavers before 2016: EU encourages UK businesses to relocate. Look at Ford in Southampton!
    Leavers since 2016: Nothing to do with Brexit as they would have closed anyway. Look at Ford in Southampton!

    (Edit: duplicate removed)

    Man, and there was me thinking that the new governmental push for zero emissions, the diesel scandal and the general downturn in demand for cars may have had some impact on the automobile industry

    Now I see! It’s all to do with Brexit!
    My point was that prior to the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as a reason to Leave the EU, but since the referendum Leavers were citing automotive job losses as something that would have happened anyway. Even worse, they are frequently the same job losses... :(
    Not so. What Leavers were saying prior to the referendum was that being in the EU would not save automotive jobs. The point was that it was immaterial whether we stayed in or not. The jobs would still go. As an example just look at Germany at the moment. So far this year Ford have announced the loss of 5000 jobs there. Daimler have announced that they will be cutting 10,000 jobs in Germany over the next 2 years. VW are cutting 7,000 jobs in Germany as part of a larger cut of 30,000 jobs world wide.

    Basically it doesn't matter if you are inside or outside the EU at the moment. If your job is in cars then you are probably in some trouble.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 68,624
    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1136304129461149696
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    If someone could screengrab this forecast and then use it to laugh at me tomorrow evening, that would be great
    "No meaningful LD operation" helps Lab, right?
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    Cracking stuff.

    "Melania Trump, whose miserable countenance seems living testament to the old adage that when you marry for money, you earn every penny."

    :lol: x 10

    That's the only good line in it. The rest is as dull as ditch-water, especially given the absolute hilarity of the material. But, this being the Guardian, it has to be twisted into a mind-numbingly tedious anti-British rant, as boring and predictable as most of the Guardian cartoons.
    Oh god. Get over yourself.
  • TheJezziahTheJezziah Posts: 3,840
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1136304129461149696

    I think it might be a good compromise, some people want a leadership contest but a lot of people don't.

    So have a deputy leadership contest instead. The mandate is looking a bit stale from all the way back in 2015 anyway.
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    If someone could screengrab this forecast and then use it to laugh at me tomorrow evening, that would be great

    I think your forecast is about right!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    edited June 2019
    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1136304129461149696

    Ha ha ha

    So transparent

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    TheJezziah said:

    rottenborough said:

    TheJezziah said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    It being a pretty big and mostly wealthy (but not near world's wealthiest) family I assume they would have bought some kind of war bonds or something... not quite the single handed funding your implying though...

    I think the crazies line these days is that Hitler was fine as long as he stayed within his own borders...

    More of a Conservative thing though...
    I thought the current Left line was Hitler was ok until he went mad later on?
    "if Hitler just wanted to make Germany great and have things run well, OK, fine."

    "The problem is that he wanted – he had dreams outside of Germany."

    Just the foreign policy was a bit problematic... the right wing domestic policy, xenophobia and nationalism is all right up some Conservatives alley...

    Not really a mantra shared by the left of politics.
    Anti semitism seems to fit Labour pretty well
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    rottenborough said:

    Roger said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Whoever posted this on the previous thread

    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/commentisfree/2019/jun/05/donald-trump-is-the-one-person-whos-more-of-a-political-basket-case-than-britain

    Thanks.

    Superb.

    The funniest female writer around by a distance. The only blot on her copybook was a fling with Piers Morgan but nobody's perfect
    Cracking stuff.

    "Melania Trump, whose miserable countenance seems living testament to the old adage that when you marry for money, you earn every penny."

    :lol: x 10

    That's the only good line in it. The rest is as dull as ditch-water, especially given the absolute hilarity of the material. But, this being the Guardian, it has to be twisted into a mind-numbingly tedious anti-British rant, as boring and predictable as most of the Guardian cartoons.
    You could have left off cartoons at end and it still works
  • _Anazina__Anazina_ Posts: 1,810
    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TheJezziah said:

    viewcode said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    kle4 said:

    oxfordsimon said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/owenjbennett/status/1136318685377904640

    Indeed it is john, indeed it is.

    What is noticeable is that with all these public declarations of Corbyn's bigotry, there isn't a single word of him trying to defend his honour in court. He knows he would lose.
    There was a bit of a shift last summer where more people started accusing Corbyn rather than merely people around him or that he fostered such racism or did not do enough about it. And yet despite the exciting blip of the Tiggers it has only been when the Brexit policy hurt Labour that he has been under pressure again. And even the Tiggers seemed more motivated by Brexit than anything else.

    I think that rather shows how little MPs and the public care about Corbyn being a bigot or not - if it had an effect it was to prevent Labour running away with big leads, but it still didn't hurt them in polling appreciably.
    It is utterly depressing that this is the case. In any other normal times, Corbyn would have been destroyed by the constant stream of evidence showing how tainted he and his followed are.

    Oh to not live in interesting times again
    Give it 10 years.
    Unfortunately I am not immortal
    TBH judging by the republicans in the US it is the new card to play, so every Labour leader is going to be anti semitic from now on, like Corbyn they won't actually be.
    Megan McCain is so upset that she can't call Bernie antisemitic. Though she did say Eli Valley was...
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    Away from the Brexit Party v Labour duel in Peterborough... any chance that the Tories might lose their deposit?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited June 2019
    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    Whilst I don't disagree with your main point, the fact that the previous Labour MP went to jail is very unlikely to make much difference. As a general rule, voters don't punish parties much if at all for the crimes of their previous candidates. See, for example, Eastleigh by-election 2013, Watford GE 2010, Rotherham by-election 2012, Barnsley Central by-election 2011, Oldham East & Saddleworth by-election 2011.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    https://order-order.com/2019/06/05/corbyn-praised-appeasing-hitler-disarming-second-world-war/

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,289
    TheJezziah said:

    rottenborough said:

    https://twitter.com/Rachael_Swindon/status/1136304129461149696

    I think it might be a good compromise, some people want a leadership contest but a lot of people don't.

    So have a deputy leadership contest instead. The mandate is looking a bit stale from all the way back in 2015 anyway.
    It'd be a good way to check the GTTO vs FBPE factions within the Labour membership.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    That could be right if there's a relatively high turnout in the 40s. If turnout is very low I think it'll be close between Lab and BRX.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,540
    Black_Rook said:

    Away from the Brexit Party v Labour duel in Peterborough... any chance that the Tories might lose their deposit?

    Even for their current situtation that seems very difficult, to drop 40+%. Between 30-40% drop is their range I think,
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    It is not just the fact that the previous Labour MP went to jail (& thus caused the by-election).

    It is the fact that she was so clearly a fool who risked everything to avoid a measly few points on her licence.

    What kind of idiot does that ..... sigh, a career politician.

    It is the perfect by-election for Farage's (dishonest) brand of anti-politics.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    rottenborough said:

    dixiedean said:

    AndreaParma_82 said:

    98.2% counted in Denmark

    Social Democrats 26.16

    Denmark's Liberal Party 23.56

    Danish People's Party 8.85

    Danish Social Liberal Party 8.42

    Socialist People's Party 7.63

    Red Green Alliance 6.71

    Conservative People's Party 6.66

    The Alternative 2.86

    The New Right 2.38

    Liberal Alliance 2.31

    Hard Line 1.8

    Christian Democrats 1.75

    Polling success klaxon! OK, not spot on, but they actually managed to predict the winners this time. Margin at the lower end of expectations, but well within range for once.
    Alternative Party?

    Has Chukka moved to Denmark?

    More seriously, Greens not so big as other parts of Europe.
    Chukka ought to move there. He could join a Party for every month of the year!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 82,720
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Amazing that two veterans of the D-Day parachute landings have parachuted in once again, at 94 and 95. That really is something.

    Not particularly....
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-england-devon-39908622/101-year-old-breaks-skydiving-world-record
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 30,884
    Stereotomy said:

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    StuartDickson said:

    Tories drifting in Peterborough:

    Brexit Party 1/6
    Labour 5/1
    Lib Dems 33/1
    Conservatives 66/1

    I think BXP will win this with 40%, and Lab trailing behind in the mid 20s.

    Why?

    - the Brexit Party got 38% in the Euros
    - the previous Labour candidate went to jail
    - if I want Brexit, why would I vote for any of the other parties?
    - there's no meaningful LD operation to pick up protest votes
    - it went 60+% leave in the referendum
    - it's a free hit
    If someone could screengrab this forecast and then use it to laugh at me tomorrow evening, that would be great
    "No meaningful LD operation" helps Lab, right?
    Possibly. May also help the Tories too.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Floater said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    williamglenn said:

    rottenborough said:

    D-Day.

    Would we do it now?

    Pretty sure that America under Trump would not be interested.

    Well last time it took being bombed by Japan and a declaration of war from Germany...
    I am longing for Corbyn or a crony to claim that D day was funded by the Rothschilds to further the cause of Zionism (which it undoubtedly did).
    https://order-order.com/2019/06/05/corbyn-praised-appeasing-hitler-disarming-second-world-war/


    "As war broke out in 1939 [Lansbury] wrote ‘I am also quite certain that the first great nation that declares its willingness to share the world’s resources, territories and markets and also disarms will be the safest in the world’. I hope Tony Blair, on his travels on behalf of George Bush, reads at least that part of this wonderful work.”

    Yeah, definitely an argument that we should have disarmed during the second world war and not, say, a comment on the Iraq war.
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