Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If the betting markets have this right Peterborough could have

1356

Comments

  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    So am I

    But this is special

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmati
    That is nice, yes. I have a father who worked in construction and loved to point out a nice Flemish bond or a cheeky bit of pointing so maybe I should check my prejudices...
    Maybe Trump was being gauche. May be he wasn’t. My approach is to give people the benefit of the doubt
    Not much of that left in Trump’s case.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    So am I

    But this is special

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmati
    That is nice, yes. I have a father who worked in construction and loved to point out a nice Flemish bond or a cheeky bit of pointing so maybe I should check my prejudices...
    Maybe Trump was being gauche. May be he wasn’t. My approach is to give people the benefit of the doubt
    Not much of that left in Trump’s case.
    Was he asking about the striking medieval floor or just a random piece of plain floor.

    On what basis have you reached a conclusion?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Charles said:

    Nigelb said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    dixiedean said:

    Charles said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Trumpton

    “Trump dealt with the aspects of the visit that were beyond his skillset by returning to areas firmly within it. In Westminster Abbey, he was shown a white marble slab commemorating the Romantic poet Lord Byron, and took the opportunity to ask what stone the flooring was made from.”


    Have you ever seen the Cosmati Floor?

    Anyone would ask about the stone - it’s very striking
    I wouldn't. But then I'm more interested in Byron than flooring. Weird isn't it? :).
    So am I

    But this is special

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cosmati
    That is nice, yes. I have a father who worked in construction and loved to point out a nice Flemish bond or a cheeky bit of pointing so maybe I should check my prejudices...
    Maybe Trump was being gauche. May be he wasn’t. My approach is to give people the benefit of the doubt
    Not much of that left in Trump’s case.
    Was he asking about the striking medieval floor or just a random piece of plain floor.

    On what basis have you reached a conclusion?
    Trump’s behaviour over the last several decades. Perhaps you’re still a fan ?

    In any event, just for you I checked.
    https://www.findagrave.com/memorial/9794095/george-gordon-byron
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

    We do know the European elections result though was Brexit Party 38%, Labour 17%, LDs 15% and Tories 11%.

    I think it will be more a question of whether the LDs can beat Labour for second than whether the Brexit Party win it, with the Tories trailing in 4th. If Labour do win it will because of good GOTV and Bristow for the Tories doing better than expected and thus splitting the Leave vote when the Brexit Party needs it largely united behind them
    That European election result is for the whole council. Hanretty estimated the breakdown for the Peterborough constituency, which is better for Labour;

    https://www.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
    Lib Dems will need switchers from Green and probably Labour (vs. European Election result) to get to 20% then. That seems a tall ask.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    rkrkrk said:

    HYUFD said:

    nico67 said:

    I haven’t seen what campaign leaflets Labour have put out for Peterborough so not sure what’s been their central message .

    As a Labour Remainer if I lived there I’d be thinking twice about voting Lib Dem or Green . As much as I want Corbyn to get the message the thought of Farage all over the news and peddling his no deal garbage might keep me in the Labour camp .

    Although the BP are strong favourites Labour did get 48% of the vote there in 2017.

    It’s amazing that we’ve not had a single poll from there .

    We do know the European elections result though was Brexit Party 38%, Labour 17%, LDs 15% and Tories 11%.

    I think it will be more a question of whether the LDs can beat Labour for second than whether the Brexit Party win it, with the Tories trailing in 4th. If Labour do win it will because of good GOTV and Bristow for the Tories doing better than expected and thus splitting the Leave vote when the Brexit Party needs it largely united behind them
    That European election result is for the whole council. Hanretty estimated the breakdown for the Peterborough constituency, which is better for Labour;

    https://www.twitter.com/NCPoliticsUK/status/1134059323582287873
    Lib Dems will need switchers from Green and probably Labour (vs. European Election result) to get to 20% then. That seems a tall ask.
    Yes, it seems unlikely.
    There seems to have been little media excitement about this contest (a shame, as it might have been preferable to the wall to wall Trump), so it’s hard to imagine the electorate being either motivated or informed enough to engage in mass tactical voting.

    What excitement there is seems confined to the Brexit friendly press, and it doesn’t yet even feature on the BBC’s politics page, this seeming to be the most recent story:
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cambridgeshire-48300812
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    A very interesting article on Brexit from June 2016. It more or less agrees with Alastair’s take on it, but without the assumption of mass xenophobia:

    https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/why-brexit-happened-the-lens-of-japan.html

    As I interpret what happened, ultimately the vote was about preserving the English nation, ...

    ...As Zack Beauchamp notes (in a piece which is mostly an example of what I am criticizing): “…the number of foreign-born people living in the UK has gone from 2.3 million in 1993 (when Britain joined the EU) to 8.2 million in 2014.”
    In terms of distribution and influence, the impact of those numbers is much larger yet....

    ...Quite simply, the English want England to stay relatively English, and voting Leave was the instrument they were given...

    Much has been made of the supposed paradox that opposition to immigration is highest where the number of immigrants is lowest. Yes, some of that is the racism and xenophobia of less cosmopolitan areas, but it would be a big mistake to dismiss it as such or even to mainly frame it as such. Most of all it is an endowment effect. Those are the regions which best remember — and indeed still live — some earlier notion of what England was like. And they wish to hold on to that, albeit with the possibility of continuing evolution along mostly English lines...

    ...Scotland and Northern Ireland have much less interest in “the English project” and of course they voted for Remain at high levels; the Welsh are somewhat closer to the English perspective and they had a majority for Leave. I also would argue that Scotland and Northern Ireland have in fact never been truly coherent nation states, with many of the Irish in chaos for centuries and Scotland piggybacking on a larger Great Britain. They (correctly) see the EU as a vehicle to attaining greater coherence...

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    It’s possible he’ll end up there, then.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    A type which the Tory party is increasingly less willing to accommodate.

  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    It's that kind of arrogance from the LDs that put a lot of intelligent centrists off, mind. 'Of course he's one of us *really*...'

    A party machine that built up its presence largely by indiscriminantly fighting battles /against/ Tories is then somehow baffled at the paucity of moderate Tories who are prepared to jump ship.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,807
    Good morning, everyone.

    Any ETA for a result?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    Whose first political choice was to sign up with Labour.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 15,798
    Nigelb said:

    A very interesting article on Brexit from June 2016. It more or less agrees with Alastair’s take on it, but without the assumption of mass xenophobia:

    https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/why-brexit-happened-the-lens-of-japan.html

    As I interpret what happened, ultimately the vote was about preserving the English nation, ...

    ...As Zack Beauchamp notes (in a piece which is mostly an example of what I am criticizing): “…the number of foreign-born people living in the UK has gone from 2.3 million in 1993 (when Britain joined the EU) to 8.2 million in 2014.”
    In terms of distribution and influence, the impact of those numbers is much larger yet....

    ...Quite simply, the English want England to stay relatively English, and voting Leave was the instrument they were given...

    Much has been made of the supposed paradox that opposition to immigration is highest where the number of immigrants is lowest. Yes, some of that is the racism and xenophobia of less cosmopolitan areas, but it would be a big mistake to dismiss it as such or even to mainly frame it as such. Most of all it is an endowment effect. Those are the regions which best remember — and indeed still live — some earlier notion of what England was like. And they wish to hold on to that, albeit with the possibility of continuing evolution along mostly English lines...

    ...Scotland and Northern Ireland have much less interest in “the English project” and of course they voted for Remain at high levels; the Welsh are somewhat closer to the English perspective and they had a majority for Leave. I also would argue that Scotland and Northern Ireland have in fact never been truly coherent nation states, with many of the Irish in chaos for centuries and Scotland piggybacking on a larger Great Britain. They (correctly) see the EU as a vehicle to attaining greater coherence...

    I've lived in Scotland and England and the idea that Scotland is a less coherent nation state than England is just plain wrong. The Scots never get confused between Scotland and the UK, for instance, but I have lost count of the number of times that English people - usually the sort that voted for Brexit - refer to the UK as England. Plus of course whose fault is it that the Irish have been "in chaos" for centuries? With respect, this sounds like bollocks.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    Whose first political choice was to sign up with Labour.
    Lots of Conservatives flirted with left-wing parties in their youth.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,406

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    Whose first political choice was to sign up with Labour.
    Lots of Conservatives flirted with left-wing parties in their youth.
    Yep, the only people who seem to have started out as Conservative seem to be at the loonier end of the spectrum nowadays (Rees Mogg, Widdicombe)
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    eek said:

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    Whose first political choice was to sign up with Labour.
    Lots of Conservatives flirted with left-wing parties in their youth.
    Yep, the only people who seem to have started out as Conservative seem to be at the loonier end of the spectrum nowadays (Rees Mogg, Widdicombe)
    Theresa Brazier..... later May?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Nigelb said:

    A very interesting article on Brexit from June 2016. It more or less agrees with Alastair’s take on it, but without the assumption of mass xenophobia:

    https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2016/06/why-brexit-happened-the-lens-of-japan.html

    As I interpret what happened, ultimately the vote was about preserving the English nation, ...

    ...As Zack Beauchamp notes (in a piece which is mostly an example of what I am criticizing): “…the number of foreign-born people living in the UK has gone from 2.3 million in 1993 (when Britain joined the EU) to 8.2 million in 2014.”
    In terms of distribution and influence, the impact of those numbers is much larger yet....

    ...Quite simply, the English want England to stay relatively English, and voting Leave was the instrument they were given...

    Much has been made of the supposed paradox that opposition to immigration is highest where the number of immigrants is lowest. Yes, some of that is the racism and xenophobia of less cosmopolitan areas, but it would be a big mistake to dismiss it as such or even to mainly frame it as such. Most of all it is an endowment effect. Those are the regions which best remember — and indeed still live — some earlier notion of what England was like. And they wish to hold on to that, albeit with the possibility of continuing evolution along mostly English lines...

    ...Scotland and Northern Ireland have much less interest in “the English project” and of course they voted for Remain at high levels; the Welsh are somewhat closer to the English perspective and they had a majority for Leave. I also would argue that Scotland and Northern Ireland have in fact never been truly coherent nation states, with many of the Irish in chaos for centuries and Scotland piggybacking on a larger Great Britain. They (correctly) see the EU as a vehicle to attaining greater coherence...

    I've lived in Scotland and England and the idea that Scotland is a less coherent nation state than England is just plain wrong. The Scots never get confused between Scotland and the UK, for instance, but I have lost count of the number of times that English people - usually the sort that voted for Brexit - refer to the UK as England. Plus of course whose fault is it that the Irish have been "in chaos" for centuries? With respect, this sounds like bollocks.
    There was a more-or-less seamless transition from EEC membership .....we joined in 1973 and confirmed by referendum in 1975...... to EU membership in 1993.
    And immigration has been increasing steadily since 1951, significantly from Commonwealth countries.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    BXP has come in from 1.17 to 1.01 overnight. Any other result would be a major betting fail. There’s £50k going at 1.01 for anyone with a healthy balance.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Quite a move towards Labour for Peterborough on Betfair. 8.6 yesterday. 5.5 now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,807
    Mr. B2, wonder if that might be worth looking at due to a potential wobble. Even if it only lengthens to 1.1 or just 1.03, you could hedge and be green either way.

    Not doing it myself, as I've no plan to stay up and pay that level of attention.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    Whose first political choice was to sign up with Labour.
    Lots of Conservatives flirted with left-wing parties in their youth.
    But once the scent of roast baby filled their nostrils..
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    Ian, I think we must have different Betfairs!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019

    Mr. B2, wonder if that might be worth looking at due to a potential wobble. Even if it only lengthens to 1.1 or just 1.03, you could hedge and be green either way.

    Not doing it myself, as I've no plan to stay up and pay that level of attention.

    And strangely, if I log in the odds change to 1.15. things are moving around rapidly
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Reportedly the local Tory and Labour parties worked hard to encourage 25% of the electorate to sign the recall petition. I would guess that 25% would make up the bulk of the by-election turnout. So it follows that the local party machines would have some good information to help with getting the vote out.

    I think Labour are quite well-placed, but then Corbyn's record in by-elections is nearly as bad as Farage's.

    The problem is most of that 25% won't have voted Conservative or Labour, a fortnight ago.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    Good morning everyone

    See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    kinabalu said:

    Quite a move towards Labour for Peterborough on Betfair. 8.6 yesterday. 5.5 now.


    But with lay at 8.0 and hardly any money on the table. The betting is all for or against the BXP.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237
    IanB2 said:

    And strangely, if I log in the odds change to 1.15. things are moving around rapidly

    If I didn't know you were a man of iron integrity I would be suspecting that YOU put that 1.01 up and were trying to get a mug on here to take it.
    :smile:
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381
    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    kle4 said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    _Anazina_ said:

    Oh god. Get over yourself.

    Sorry, you think it's funny? Really? Perhaps you think BBC radio comedy is funny as well?
    It’s an elegant piece of satire that quite pointedly defines the absurdity of their president and our monarchy. There are a few funnies within it. But, essentially, it’s just poking fun at what was a painfully fawning, pathetic, embarrassing couple of days.
    Pathetic and embarrassing? When Trump has had visits to other nations too, and we don't look down on them I am sure, because what a sad thing to do that would be.

    Maybe you should take your own advice and get over yourself, and stop feeling sorry for yourself on behalf of the nation because an arsehole politician is given a state visit because of the office he unfortunately holds. Oh, what horrors. And the media cover it too? I fear I may collapse from the shame.

    I'm happy to just laugh at the man, frankly.

    I don’t see anything to commend a ‘state visit’ and would prefer that we didn’t have a state-funded monarchy that we pay to boost the already overinflated egos of morons like Trump. The entire miserable spectacle spoke to entitlement, rather than a society based on hard work and talent. One born-in silver-spooner licking the backside of another.
    You know visits like this happen in places without monarchies, right? The idea as a nation we should feel shame for such things, particularly as you seem to think it a unique level shame, is just dumb when you frame it as speaking to our society somehow. And your advice for others to get over themselves is looking more and more hilarious given the chip on your shoulder on this topic.

    Just ignore it - I've not followed a single aspect of it, other than running commentary from people, usually you, asking about it on PB. Why let Trump get to you so much? He was here, hands were shaken for diplomatic nicities, and then he's gone. As horrible as he is there are far worse in the world.
    Yes, Republics have Presidents living in palaces, titles, honours, protocol, great families, billionaires, State visits etc. as much as constitutional monarchies do.

    And, it's all a bit reminiscent of my grandmother complaining about the filth on television. I always said to her that she didn't have to watch it.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited June 2019
    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!
  • RecidivistRecidivist Posts: 4,679
    There's a very good campaign video done by the Conservative candidate in Peterborough. You have to watch right to the end before he mentions his party though.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    Roger said:

    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!


    You have the option of not listening.

    You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    kinabalu said:

    Quite a move towards Labour for Peterborough on Betfair. 8.6 yesterday. 5.5 now.

    Still quite long for a two-horse race that is likely going to be won by less than a length.....
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    Dear Marge.

    I've got visions of Anna Foster and Nicky Campbell in Portsmouth with bazookas strapped to their backs wading ashore looking for Germans.....

    Should I see a psychiatrist or write to the BBC?

    Yours etc
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    IanB2 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Rory Stewart says he left the Labour party because of a "surreal gap between the way they talked about the world and the way things were on the ground". I think he joined the wrong party if he wanted to get away from that.

    Like many intelligent centrists be should of course be in the LibDems; that’s been pretty obvious since he started his leadership bid. He made his choice because he fancied a political career.
    He's a pragmatic Conservative through and through.
    Whose first political choice was to sign up with Labour.
    Lots of Conservatives flirted with left-wing parties in their youth.
    But once the scent of roast baby filled their nostrils..
    Since my daughter turned vegetarian we have really had to cut back on the babies. Still enjoy a BBQ though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    matt said:

    Roger said:

    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!


    You have the option of not listening.

    You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.
    I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    I supported it on here at the time.

    The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

    My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,237

    Still quite long for a two-horse race that is likely going to be won by less than a length.....

    Yes I backed Labour at 8 point something yesterday and I'm happy enough with that.

    Says a lot about where we are that anything but a clear win in a by-election for a party formed yesterday will be a seismic shock.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    Bit of a pattern there.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491

    kinabalu said:

    Quite a move towards Labour for Peterborough on Betfair. 8.6 yesterday. 5.5 now.

    Still quite long for a two-horse race that is likely going to be won by less than a length.....
    I expect to lose but have laid the Brexit Party in Peterborough at current odds.

    Too much unpredictability in politics at the moment.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    edited June 2019
    TM and Macron about to unveil the UK memorial to honour UK troops killed in Normandy in the summer of 1944.

    Apparently the French have gifted the area including the memorial to the UK and will forever be UK owned and hence why TM welcomed Macron to the memorial
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Dr Foxy's dictum applies "Fair taxes are those only paid by other people"
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    I supported it on here at the time.

    The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

    My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.
    I did too (albeit I did wonder if during a GE campaign was quite the moment to sell it). The proposition that it was more important that the family home be passed on to the next generation than bills incurred by the current one should be paid struck me as quite immoral. But, as @Matt says, the philosophy that someone else pays is King.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    edited June 2019

    Good morning everyone

    See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

    By singing about bombing Germans........

    Where DO they get their ideas from

    Is that FARAGE!!!!

    https://video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=heinekin+dam+busters+commercial#id=1&vid=9beda363da167c822101d0afc33325a2&action=click
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    Bit of a pattern there.
    With hindsight there was a serious warning which we all ignored (Osborne being an honourable exception).
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362

    Good morning everyone

    See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

    Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Roger said:

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!


    You have the option of not listening.

    You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.
    I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.
    D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

    So nothing in common with Brexit...

    I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    malcolmg said:

    Good morning everyone

    See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

    Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.
    The sad thing is that they head off to major football competitions which we never seem to make to any more Malcolm. Looking forward to Scotland's women showing the way though.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    Brexit will WIN tonight and comfortably so. It doesn't matter that their candidate represents exactly the kind of fuck you capitalism that has brought people in Peterborough to their knees - he isn't the problem, Europe is. Apparently.

    Labour selected an anti-semite candidate who pledges to have training, has a Brexit policy of "down with America" and on that basis alone deserves to finish 9th. They won't- it'll be second, and the spin operation will be something to behold. Remember - Labour deployed the full Peoples Army of The Jeremy - they have been on the stump, they will have knocked on Labour pledges and will be wholly confident that Jeremy will WIN! So when he doesn't it's obviously the fault of the Blairites.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733

    Brexit will WIN tonight and comfortably so. It doesn't matter that their candidate represents exactly the kind of fuck you capitalism that has brought people in Peterborough to their knees - he isn't the problem, Europe is. Apparently.

    Labour selected an anti-semite candidate who pledges to have training, has a Brexit policy of "down with America" and on that basis alone deserves to finish 9th. They won't- it'll be second, and the spin operation will be something to behold. Remember - Labour deployed the full Peoples Army of The Jeremy - they have been on the stump, they will have knocked on Labour pledges and will be wholly confident that Jeremy will WIN! So when he doesn't it's obviously the fault of the Blairites.

    Lab in 3rd is my prediction, I think the 5/1 on Lab at 10-20% is value with so many options, and I see the Tories in the same band. LDs had only 3% last time round but did have 19% in 2010 so the base may not be as thin as some opine.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Nigelb said:
    He realises he is reviewing a dramatisation and not a documentary, right ?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,865
    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!


    You have the option of not listening.

    You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.
    I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.
    D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

    So nothing in common with Brexit...

    I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.
    I was watching some of the coverage yesterday morning whilst beating myself to near death in the gym. The sheer scale of the operation was truly incredible. The landing force needed 8,000 tonnes of fuel a day initially transported by jerry can. One of the Mulberry harbours had 244k cubic metres of concrete. The WW2 Americans were just absolute geniuses at logistics.

    One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133
    malcolmg said:

    Good morning everyone

    See England football fans bringing shame on our Country in Porto last night

    Morning G, sign of the times and way England is heading. Worse to come I would think.
    Morning Malc - football violence has a very long history and is unlikely to improve anytime soon.

    In the early sixties I was on a train going from Edinburgh to Glasgow when hordes of Hibs supporters turned violent forcing the train to stop. My sister and I were so grateful that we were in a compartment carriage safe from the marauding hooligans
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    I hope that Labour's kicking tonight will be the final straw for the same majority of the party. Ordinarily walking away from a party would be difficult - the Streatham ego machine showed us all how not to do it.

    The clue though is the Brexit Party. They are a "new" party. But they aren't- they are continuity UKIP. As the old UKIP got taken over by an old racist that a cabal refused to allow any criticism of, the party upped sticks and formed a replacement party. And it's electorate upped and walked with it.

    (new) Labour can pull off the same trick. Leave that tosser Corbyn with the name and 30 MPs- irrelevant to the real needs, howling at the Moon taking his front bench to the latest sweep Israel into the seaweed not anti semites rally whilst (new) Labour talks about jobs and a renewed vision for the future, working with progressive parties who can win in places Labour cannot. It will then be up to The Jeremy whether he choses to support the progressive coalition of class traitors splitters and Tory enablers, or says no and reverts back to his decades long habit of not being a Tiry enabler by voting with the Tories
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,005

    TM and Macron about to unveil the UK memorial to honour UK troops killed in Normandy in the summer of 1944.

    Apparently the French have gifted the area including the memorial to the UK and will forever be UK owned and hence why TM welcomed Macron to the memorial

    May's emphasis on the word 'duty' when referring to the lads of '44 was pretty pointed I thought.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,807
    Mr. L, during a late German offensive in the First World War, their troops advanced rapidly, came upon large supplies of wine and the advance stalled suddenly.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    Foxy said:

    Brexit will WIN tonight and comfortably so. It doesn't matter that their candidate represents exactly the kind of fuck you capitalism that has brought people in Peterborough to their knees - he isn't the problem, Europe is. Apparently.

    Labour selected an anti-semite candidate who pledges to have training, has a Brexit policy of "down with America" and on that basis alone deserves to finish 9th. They won't- it'll be second, and the spin operation will be something to behold. Remember - Labour deployed the full Peoples Army of The Jeremy - they have been on the stump, they will have knocked on Labour pledges and will be wholly confident that Jeremy will WIN! So when he doesn't it's obviously the fault of the Blairites.

    Lab in 3rd is my prediction, I think the 5/1 on Lab at 10-20% is value with so many options, and I see the Tories in the same band. LDs had only 3% last time round but did have 19% in 2010 so the base may not be as thin as some opine.
    I can see how that works. Labour activists will have knocked on doors, who will have said yes we're still Labour. Who will either vote LibDem or stay at home. It's a Mark of Shame to be a Labour voter these days.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    edited June 2019
    On Mike’s point about voter fatigue in the header, P’bo also had the recall petition and local council elections (in the city) within a couple of weeks before that.

    Hard to make predictions about today’s turnout and result. Tend to agree it’s BXP v LAB, and I think Brexit more likely given the seat’s recent history and Nigel’s spurt.

    Surely the Tories can’t do it (they’d have benefitted from a new leader bounce in a month but are surely moribund right now). And it’s a big ask for LDs in a place without much history.

    But motivation to vote may differ between various groups in a low turnout... which turns it into rather more of a coin toss.

    (Exec summary: “who knows?”)
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    We're told that we have a National Health Service which is the 'envy of the world'.

    Its not surprising then that people expect it to be paid for.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,381

    Mr. L, during a late German offensive in the First World War, their troops advanced rapidly, came upon large supplies of wine and the advance stalled suddenly.

    At one point in the Peninsular War, Marshal Ney had to beat a rapid retreat before Wellington, and ordered his soldiers to dump all their skins of wine and brandy, whereupon the pursuit ground to a halt.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    TM and Macron about to unveil the UK memorial to honour UK troops killed in Normandy in the summer of 1944.

    Apparently the French have gifted the area including the memorial to the UK and will forever be UK owned and hence why TM welcomed Macron to the memorial

    Will they need to build a hard border around it after Brexit?
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,710
    Roger said:

    Dear Marge.

    I've got visions of Anna Foster and Nicky Campbell in Portsmouth with bazookas strapped to their backs wading ashore looking for Germans.....

    (Snip)

    This is getting very off-topic, but isn't that one of the myths of warfare? Most of the young men wading up the beaches would have been more than happy to reach their unit's objectives without personally encountering any Germans or German bullets.

    There would certainly be some gung-ho ones who just wanted to kill the Hun, but they would have been outweighed by the ones who were scared and just wanted to get the job done and go home.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,133

    TM and Macron about to unveil the UK memorial to honour UK troops killed in Normandy in the summer of 1944.

    Apparently the French have gifted the area including the memorial to the UK and will forever be UK owned and hence why TM welcomed Macron to the memorial

    Will they need to build a hard border around it after Brexit?
    It does make Brexit seem so pointless
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    TM and Macron about to unveil the UK memorial to honour UK troops killed in Normandy in the summer of 1944.

    Apparently the French have gifted the area including the memorial to the UK and will forever be UK owned and hence why TM welcomed Macron to the memorial

    We have to make sure a Whitehall beancounter doesn't cut the funding for any necessary upkeep costs then.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,710
    That Brexit Party leaflet says: "You can change history on June 6th."

    Surely that should be: "You can create history on June 6th." ?

    (pedant mode?)
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    He realises he is reviewing a dramatisation and not a documentary, right ?
    I pretty sure she does...
    But like it or not, reality based drama shapes our views of history.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    I hope that Labour's kicking tonight will be the final straw for the same majority of the party. Ordinarily walking away from a party would be difficult - the Streatham ego machine showed us all how not to do it.

    The clue though is the Brexit Party. They are a "new" party. But they aren't- they are continuity UKIP. As the old UKIP got taken over by an old racist that a cabal refused to allow any criticism of, the party upped sticks and formed a replacement party. And it's electorate upped and walked with it.

    (new) Labour can pull off the same trick. Leave that tosser Corbyn with the name and 30 MPs- irrelevant to the real needs, howling at the Moon taking his front bench to the latest sweep Israel into the seaweed not anti semites rally whilst (new) Labour talks about jobs and a renewed vision for the future, working with progressive parties who can win in places Labour cannot. It will then be up to The Jeremy whether he choses to support the progressive coalition of class traitors splitters and Tory enablers, or says no and reverts back to his decades long habit of not being a Tiry enabler by voting with the Tories

    Tom Watson leader with Yvette Shadow Chancellor?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    That Brexit Party leaflet says: "You can change history on June 6th."

    Surely that should be: "You can create history on June 6th." ?

    (pedant mode?)

    <.pedant mode> Technically you are creating history all the time, I believe they mean you can change the course of history. </. pedant mode>
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    That Brexit Party leaflet says: "You can change history on June 6th."

    Surely that should be: "You can create history on June 6th." ?

    (pedant mode?)

    Nigel Farage was sent from the future to ...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    He realises he is reviewing a dramatisation and not a documentary, right ?
    I pretty sure she does...
    But like it or not, reality based drama shapes our views of history.
    Yes it does, but it will never be able to be, nor even should be, totally accurate, or else the drama would suffer from an override of complexity and detail, or just not be as effective a story.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Just watching Heidi's interview on Peston, she seems very confused. She rules out joining the LibDems for now, yet is careful not to say never - yet there appears to be that leaked WhatsApp discussion (leaked by whom?) that is already talking about some sort of collective application. She left Change UK because it has failed as a new party (again her explanation here was confused) yet wants to sit as an Independent and thinks other Tory and Labour MPs will want to join them, rather than CUK.

    Perhaps it is as simple as the reinvented TIGs are willing to consider at least working with the LibDems whereas the continuing CUKs are not.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    DavidL said:

    Foxy said:

    Roger said:

    matt said:

    Roger said:

    The jingoism on Radio 5 is completely overwhelming. Only broken up by somse sports news....

    'Some English supporters have brought shame on the country by .....

    ......singing about German bombers....'

    Well there's a surprise!


    You have the option of not listening.

    You don’t seem to be a natural R5 listener so I presume you needed a daily dose of moral outrage and superiority early today.
    I'm in the South of France trying to keep up with Brexit news. Pretty thin on the ground unless the plan is to bomb Barnier.
    D Day was a materpiece of logistics, meticulous planning and co-ordinated action.

    So nothing in common with Brexit...

    I am looking forward to 5Live's effusive coverage of Operation Bagration on June 23rd, an even more decisive battle.
    I was watching some of the coverage yesterday morning whilst beating myself to near death in the gym. The sheer scale of the operation was truly incredible. The landing force needed 8,000 tonnes of fuel a day initially transported by jerry can. One of the Mulberry harbours had 244k cubic metres of concrete. The WW2 Americans were just absolute geniuses at logistics.

    One of my favourite WW2 stories concerned German troops at Monte Casino who had been living on rats but counter attacked the US trenches taking control of sections. They found fresh cream cakes from Chicago. And surrendered.
    Yes my mother's father was at Monte Cassino and my mother still has his photo album from threat in the loft, was a dramatic battle
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    I hope that Labour's kicking tonight will be the final straw for the same majority of the party. Ordinarily walking away from a party would be difficult - the Streatham ego machine showed us all how not to do it.

    The clue though is the Brexit Party. They are a "new" party. But they aren't- they are continuity UKIP. As the old UKIP got taken over by an old racist that a cabal refused to allow any criticism of, the party upped sticks and formed a replacement party. And it's electorate upped and walked with it.

    (new) Labour can pull off the same trick. Leave that tosser Corbyn with the name and 30 MPs- irrelevant to the real needs, howling at the Moon taking his front bench to the latest sweep Israel into the seaweed not anti semites rally whilst (new) Labour talks about jobs and a renewed vision for the future, working with progressive parties who can win in places Labour cannot. It will then be up to The Jeremy whether he choses to support the progressive coalition of class traitors splitters and Tory enablers, or says no and reverts back to his decades long habit of not being a Tiry enabler by voting with the Tories

    What if, unexpectedly, Labour do win? It should not be a challenge to win such a seat given them being the opposition and the government being in so much chaos, but what should the non corbynites to if they dont have the pretext of a loss? It's not impossible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,393

    I hope that Labour's kicking tonight will be the final straw for the same majority of the party. Ordinarily walking away from a party would be difficult - the Streatham ego machine showed us all how not to do it.

    The clue though is the Brexit Party. They are a "new" party. But they aren't- they are continuity UKIP. As the old UKIP got taken over by an old racist that a cabal refused to allow any criticism of, the party upped sticks and formed a replacement party. And it's electorate upped and walked with it.

    (new) Labour can pull off the same trick. Leave that tosser Corbyn with the name and 30 MPs- irrelevant to the real needs, howling at the Moon taking his front bench to the latest sweep Israel into the seaweed not anti semites rally whilst (new) Labour talks about jobs and a renewed vision for the future, working with progressive parties who can win in places Labour cannot. It will then be up to The Jeremy whether he choses to support the progressive coalition of class traitors splitters and Tory enablers, or says no and reverts back to his decades long habit of not being a Tiry enabler by voting with the Tories

    A very astute analysis.

    Many who would like to advocate this plan as a way forward will instead fear this would lead to a further fragmentation of progressives. I can't see them working together as one happy family to defeat the forces of conservatism. Quite the opposite.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,773

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    There's a very good campaign video done by the Conservative candidate in Peterborough. You have to watch right to the end before he mentions his party though.

    I remember Paul Bristow from Conservative student days, affable and a good campaigner in normal circumstances he would have had a good chance but with Brexit dominating all he will do well to come 3rd tonight
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,298
    Well since others are doing predictions, I don't want to miss out on my chance at some bragging rights. I'm going for a narrow Labour win.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    I supported it on here at the time.

    The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

    My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.
    Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while nor being as toxic as the dementia tax
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Raises a good point. Granted the party is about to be humiliated again, probably dropping over 30%, but seeing which leadership candidates put in some hard yards in an actual by-election seems like a sensible move. If they do unexpectedly well they can claim credit, if they are hammered as bad as expected well that was inevitable.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
    Why not before today?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    IanB2 said:

    Just watching Heidi's interview on Peston, she seems very confused. She rules out joining the LibDems for now, yet is careful not to say never - yet there appears to be that leaked WhatsApp discussion (leaked by whom?) that is already talking about some sort of collective application. She left Change UK because it has failed as a new party (again her explanation here was confused) yet wants to sit as an Independent and thinks other Tory and Labour MPs will want to join them, rather than CUK.

    Perhaps it is as simple as the reinvented TIGs are willing to consider at least working with the LibDems whereas the continuing CUKs are not.

    Is she still a 'proud tigger mum' ?

    https://twitter.com/s__a__m/status/1121656812313296899?lang=en
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,605

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
    You can knock up.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617

    I hope that Labour's kicking tonight will be the final straw for the same majority of the party. Ordinarily walking away from a party would be difficult - the Streatham ego machine showed us all how not to do it.

    The clue though is the Brexit Party. They are a "new" party. But they aren't- they are continuity UKIP. As the old UKIP got taken over by an old racist that a cabal refused to allow any criticism of, the party upped sticks and formed a replacement party. And it's electorate upped and walked with it.

    (new) Labour can pull off the same trick. Leave that tosser Corbyn with the name and 30 MPs- irrelevant to the real needs, howling at the Moon taking his front bench to the latest sweep Israel into the seaweed not anti semites rally whilst (new) Labour talks about jobs and a renewed vision for the future, working with progressive parties who can win in places Labour cannot. It will then be up to The Jeremy whether he choses to support the progressive coalition of class traitors splitters and Tory enablers, or says no and reverts back to his decades long habit of not being a Tiry enabler by voting with the Tories

    I think the problem you face is that fraternal politeness: "After you, comrade...."
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    I supported it on here at the time.

    The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

    My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.
    Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while nor being as toxic as the dementia tax
    The thing to do is to put adult social care spending under the NHS.

    The government can then claim to have increased NHS spending.

    And the NHS is perhaps the only thing people will accept an increase in taxation for.
  • Harris_TweedHarris_Tweed Posts: 1,337
    Barnesian said:

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
    You can knock up.
    It’s only broadcasters who are restricted. Rory Stewart could be on Facebook Live in the Queensgate centre all day if he wanted.

    The main remaining legal trickiness is around revealing how people have voted (ie exit polls) for non-broadcasters.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    kle4 said:

    Nigelb said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Nigelb said:
    He realises he is reviewing a dramatisation and not a documentary, right ?
    I pretty sure she does...
    But like it or not, reality based drama shapes our views of history.
    Yes it does, but it will never be able to be, nor even should be, totally accurate, or else the drama would suffer from an override of complexity and detail, or just not be as effective a story.
    They made an extraordinary effort for authenticity... and utterly failed to capture the nature of Soviet society.
    And the root cause of the disaster.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
    ?
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
    Of course you are. Restriction only applies to TV coverage.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,677
    DavidL said:

    The WW2 Americans were just absolute geniuses at logistics.

    They still are very good at it. In those first heady few days of the Basra invasion the USMC 15th MEU had multiple flavours of ice cream available while we were robbing Iraqi shops at gunpoint for shitty biscuits.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    edited June 2019
    Barnesian said:

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Why when you're not allowed to campaign on the day of an election.
    You can knock up.
    You can do what you like.

    In electoral law the only additional restrictions for polling day are for what you can’t do within the precinct of a voting place.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    kle4 said:

    12 Tory leadership candidates: how many in Peterborough today?

    Raises a good point. Granted the party is about to be humiliated again, probably dropping over 30%, but seeing which leadership candidates put in some hard yards in an actual by-election seems like a sensible move. If they do unexpectedly well they can claim credit, if they are hammered as bad as expected well that was inevitable.
    On Paul Bristow's twitter feed looks like Rory, Boris, Matt Hancock, Esther McVey and Michael Gove have been to Peterborough to help out

    https://mobile.twitter.com/paulbristow79
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478

    Mr. L, during a late German offensive in the First World War, their troops advanced rapidly, came upon large supplies of wine and the advance stalled suddenly.

    The late Jo Grimond credited the East Lancastrian fondness for Benedictine with the East lancs regiment taking over a Benedictine monastery in NE France at some point.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    Peterborough prediction: the only way Brexit Party don't win is if the Tories put in a surprisingly strong showing. Given they will have been working this seat for months ahead of the recall petition and the recall petition itself as a potential gain, I suspect they will deliver on the upside....

    Four parties in the twenties? Inverness, Nairn and Lochaber '92 anyone?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    I supported it on here at the time.

    The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

    My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.
    Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while not being as toxic as the dementia tax
    The thing to do is to put adult social care spending under the NHS.

    The government can then claim to have increased NHS spending.

    And the NHS is perhaps the only thing people will accept an increase in taxation for.
    I agree and would reduce the pressure on councils too if they benefit from NHS funding increases
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772

    HYUFD said:

    Foxy said:

    DavidL said:

    matt said:

    DavidL said:

    Not seen it, but can well imagine what is in this documentary.

    There is a place in social and political history waiting for the first party leader to grab this problem by the neck and sort it for generations to come:

    https://twitter.com/AllieRenison/status/1136365935323992064

    I got the impression that Hunt was starting to get a grip before he moved on to grander things in the relatively short period it was under his department. I have a lot less optimism about Hancock who seems to me to be running for the Grayling position of his generation. The fact that he is also running for the leadership shows the redeeming virtue of a sense of humour but on his watch this is going to be in the too hard pile.
    It’s always going to be too hard when the overriding public philosophy is “somebody else must pay”.
    Indeed. The only idea I have seen that came close to recognising the scale of the problem was May's ill fated death tax at the 2017 election. Not for the only time she was actually right but just indescribably inept in selling it, building any kind of consensus or even justifying her position having made the ex cathedra announcement.
    I supported it on here at the time.

    The problem is an expensive one and it is unreasonable to expect Generation Rent to pay for it, in order that the middle aged and middle class can inheirit a windfall.

    My Mother in Law has just sold her bungalow in the Isle of Wight to pay for her nursing home. Seems right and proper to me.
    Most of generation rent will want to still inherit some of their family estate in due course, Greens proposal to raise National Insurance on over 50s was sensible as it avoids hitting generation rent while nor being as toxic as the dementia tax
    The thing to do is to put adult social care spending under the NHS.

    The government can then claim to have increased NHS spending.

    And the NHS is perhaps the only thing people will accept an increase in taxation for.
    The fact that this generation of politicians, and I'm talking all of them in last say twenty years, have failed to deal with this and come up with a working long term solution, shows real collective failure.

    It really makes me angry. The endless point scoring between parties has been the block to every proposal.
This discussion has been closed.