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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Trump buzzword bingo market

Donald Trump is 3/1 to mention "Liverpool" during his press conference tomorrow.Anything else we should add to the Buzzword Bingo list?https://t.co/7uuzMAdMxE pic.twitter.com/4P6QlWo49Y
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By the way, some money has been going on, eg “Brexit” is in to 1/10 and “China” is in to 2/5. “Huawei” is 4/6.
I did cast my eye over this yesterday, but nothing leapt out at me. Have a distinctly patchy record with this sort of thing, so decided to give it a miss.
https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1135591166693531650?s=21
12 wins or more in 2019 at 4.
14 wins or more in 2019 at 19.
His current win counts is four, so the first bet is for him to get another eight, the latter another 10. There are 15 races left. If he wins at the current rate, that would actually see him win 10.
I had initially thought these were odds on him winning from the remaining races. They're more tempting than I'd thought, but, annoyingly, when I click the markets appear suspended.
There's also a Mercedes to win every race this season special at 8.
Hmm. I was going to back the first Hamilton market with a full stake, and put a little on the second. Dislike it when a market appears up but then is suspended when you try to bet...
For the record, he had 12 wins in 2018, and 9 in 2017, [I didn't keep running points tallies before this].
Dominant swing in Scotland overwhelmingly Lab to SNP.
Sweet.
Almost everyone seems to assume that GB will shortly revert to the now century-old Con/Lab duopoly (evidence: the “Most Seats” and “Maj/Min/Coalition” markets) I am starting to think that almost everyone is wrong. There’s gold in them thar hills.
The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.
When UKIP rode high it took nothing from the Conservatives and got a string of strong second places in Labour's northern heartlands.
When the Lib Dems rode high they ate into Conservative territory, in the south-west in particular.
"Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who."
I remember it well. Cardboard scenery, and a paunchy hero who was obviously a Guardian reader. However, the plots were good. Was it Servalan who was the villain? Boo, hiiss etc.
Two good looking women; one blonde - the goody, one dark-haired, a baddy, stole the show.
And to be fair, Dr Who was a kiddies' show.
Well, someone in that family has to be. Law of averages!
Somewhat reminiscent of politicians generally making EU-sceptical noises in opposition then behaving in the opposite direction in office. And then being surprised when the populace isn't as pro-EU as the political class.
https://www.macrumors.com/2019/06/03/sign-in-with-apple-required-as-sign-in-option/
It also illustrates how entertainment and technology has become cheaper.
In the 1990s it cost £260 to buy the series on VHS.
In the 2000s it cost £120 to buy the series on DVD.
Now its free on YouTube.
https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19
I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.
Baumol’s cost disease:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol's_cost_disease
Long term Labour are in more trouble because of the divisions between the leadership, the MPs, members and Unions that exist not just on Brexit, but statist politics more generally.
This was triggered by Kent Council finally getting their arse in gear. Too late for their pensioners though.
Even if you added every LD voter to the Tory share the Tories would only have got 29%, however add every Brexit Party voter to the Tory share and the Tories would have been back on 42%
The problem for the Tories is that such a choice effectively surrenders the centre ground for a decade or more.
If they can kill the BP, that might be a worthwhile electoral bargain - it worked for Thatcher. Killing the BP might surrender the centre to an extent even Thatcher didn’t manage, though. Tacking probably isn’t going to be enough.
The latter is not a big deal for most, the Brexit issue solvable leaving only anti semitism as the big problem, and the voters dont even seem to care about that.
Whereas the tories are grossly incompetent, which is fixable, and absolutely divided on a critical issue, which isn't. They will survive no deal since you are right it is strongest, but they will be dead in London and hammered in other areas.
Mr. Observer, you keep talking about English nationalists but how many Leavers have actually asserted a desire for England to leave the UK, or for the UK to split apart? And you're ignoring Wales, which is ironic when making claims of English nationalism.
https://twitter.com/mrjakehumphrey/status/1135800596722790400?s=21
I firmly believe the old duopoly has been smashed by Brexit. For decades we have seen voting largely framed around which side of the Con/Lab divide people see themselves on. That divide is rapidly being utterly eclipsed by the Remain/Leave divide, and as both Con and Lab manage to wriggle and writhe without having a clear position they are being left behind as irrelevant.
That word - irrelevant - should be what scares them both. For a long time the LibDems were irrelevant. It didn't matter who they were or what they said or what policies they enacted - irrelevant. Even in coalition the only thing of note from the LibDems is that their MPs voted more loyally for Tory bills than Tory MPs and the LibDem voters and members hated it.
Now though they have a focus and a purpose - remain. Labour will literally tear itself in half reaching (or not) a clear position on Brexit. The Tories have already scored their own divide and await the crowning of their new leader to rip off the Remain portion.
https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1135808951419920384
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/jeremy-corbyn-unveils-new-tax-raid-owners-large-family-homes/
Not like the wholesome allotments preferred by the working class.
The big winners are the Greens who are on a roll with support climbing steadily and the latest polling showing them performing above their Euros high. They are now on 25% just one point behind the CDU
https://www.welt.de/politik/article194698667/Union-und-SPD-verlieren-Gruene-legen-in-neuer-Umfrage-massiv-zu-Rekordhoch.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/maths-trade-deal-trump-do-not-add/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/stop-trying-meddle-affairs-mr-johnson-nhs-not-sale/
It will be interesting to see what is raised at the hustings as the notion that Britain can be a rulemaker rather than a ruletaker (or would even want to be) fails its first contact with reality.
For example the difficulties with student debt and adult social care can be traced back to the choices made in 2010.
Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.