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SystemSystem Posts: 12,171
edited June 2019 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Trump buzzword bingo market

Donald Trump is 3/1 to mention "Liverpool" during his press conference tomorrow.Anything else we should add to the Buzzword Bingo list?https://t.co/7uuzMAdMxE pic.twitter.com/4P6QlWo49Y

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Comments

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    First!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Very sad news about Paul Darrow. Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who. The episodes are all on YouTube for anyone who missed out,
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    It’s a press conference, so he’ll be asked questions. All journalists want to know about is Boris and a trade deal. So I’d go with Great Guy at 2/1 and Great Economy at 6/1
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Trump will hate this photo.

    image
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    edited June 2019
    ”Lewis” has got to be a candidate. He did love his Scottish mum.

    By the way, some money has been going on, eg “Brexit” is in to 1/10 and “China” is in to 2/5. “Huawei” is 4/6.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,491
    Special relationship.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,869
    Casino_Royale said:

    Special relationship.

    Now evens
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Good morning, everyone.

    I did cast my eye over this yesterday, but nothing leapt out at me. Have a distinctly patchy record with this sort of thing, so decided to give it a miss.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    No bet for me.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    If you treat the Brexit Party as the continuator party of UKIP, this is the swing pattern for the European elections.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1135591166693531650?s=21
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    F1: two Hamilton win specials.

    12 wins or more in 2019 at 4.

    14 wins or more in 2019 at 19.

    His current win counts is four, so the first bet is for him to get another eight, the latter another 10. There are 15 races left. If he wins at the current rate, that would actually see him win 10.

    I had initially thought these were odds on him winning from the remaining races. They're more tempting than I'd thought, but, annoyingly, when I click the markets appear suspended.

    There's also a Mercedes to win every race this season special at 8.

    Hmm. I was going to back the first Hamilton market with a full stake, and put a little on the second. Dislike it when a market appears up but then is suspended when you try to bet...

    For the record, he had 12 wins in 2018, and 9 in 2017, [I didn't keep running points tallies before this].
  • SirBenjaminSirBenjamin Posts: 238
    williamglenn said:

    Trump will hate this photo.

    image

    #FAKEPHOTO
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    It’s a press conference, so he’ll be asked questions. All journalists want to know about is Boris and a trade deal. So I’d go with Great Guy at 2/1 and Great Economy at 6/1

    Good logic, but surely that makes Boris at evens the best bet?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    williamglenn said:

    If you treat the Brexit Party as the continuator party of UKIP, this is the swing pattern for the European elections.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1135591166693531650?s=21

    How useful do you think that map is?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,426
    SirBenjamin said:

    williamglenn said:

    Trump will hate this photo.

    image

    #FAKEPHOTO
    Are you sure of fat?
  • StuartDicksonStuartDickson Posts: 12,146
    Dominant swing in England overwhelmingly Con to Lib Dem.

    Dominant swing in Scotland overwhelmingly Lab to SNP.

    Sweet.

    Almost everyone seems to assume that GB will shortly revert to the now century-old Con/Lab duopoly (evidence: the “Most Seats” and “Maj/Min/Coalition” markets) I am starting to think that almost everyone is wrong. There’s gold in them thar hills.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Dickson, both that and the alternative (either fragmented politics or both main parties being overtaken by formerly smaller rivals) are credible possibilities.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    https://twitter.com/RSylvesterTimes/status/1135792951764967426
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    StuartDickson said:

    Dominant swing in England overwhelmingly Con to Lib Dem.

    Dominant swing in Scotland overwhelmingly Lab to SNP.

    Sweet.

    Almost everyone seems to assume that GB will shortly revert to the now century-old Con/Lab duopoly (evidence: the “Most Seats” and “Maj/Min/Coalition” markets) I am starting to think that almost everyone is wrong. There’s gold in them thar hills.

    The chances of a disruption are higher than at any time in my life, but the betting markets are right to be cautious even now. As Sean Fear says, there’s a lot of ruin in a nation, and similarly in political parties.

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RSylvesterTimes/status/1135792951764967426

    To be fair, they are only following the voters who have abandoned Conservatism.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Quiet on here this morning, is everybody watching Trump videos
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Glenn, at the risk of sounding immodest, I did mention that some days (maybe a week or two) ago, when I said if the Conservatives jump towards BP, as seems likely, they stand to lose a great deal to the Lib Dems.

    When UKIP rode high it took nothing from the Conservatives and got a string of strong second places in Labour's northern heartlands.

    When the Lib Dems rode high they ate into Conservative territory, in the south-west in particular.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    How absolutely desperate are things when the useless Lib Dems are a threat
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    malcolmg said:

    Quiet on here this morning, is everybody watching Trump videos

    Just shocked to see vanilla working again!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Foxy said:

    malcolmg said:

    Quiet on here this morning, is everybody watching Trump videos

    Just shocked to see vanilla working again!
    I had not even noticed there were not miles of arrows
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Mr B2,

    "Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who."

    I remember it well. Cardboard scenery, and a paunchy hero who was obviously a Guardian reader. However, the plots were good. Was it Servalan who was the villain? Boo, hiiss etc.

    Two good looking women; one blonde - the goody, one dark-haired, a baddy, stole the show.


    And to be fair, Dr Who was a kiddies' show.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. CD13, never seen Blake's Seven, but Genesis of the Daleks was extremely good.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1135799554694139904
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,617
    malcolmg said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    How absolutely desperate are things when the useless Lib Dems are a threat
    How absolutely desperately bad has May been when she has simultaneously lost votes to both the dead LibDems and the moribund Farage. It would have taken planning by a genius to engineer that.....
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1135799554694139904

    Fascinating. Had assumed Fox would back a solid leaver. Then again, that would put the onus back onto him to land the promised trade deals. Which after several years in his current job he knows to be impossible
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,478
    edited June 2019
    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1135799554694139904



    Well, someone in that family has to be. Law of averages!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Mark, she ramped up the prospect of no deal, then backed away in a hurry when it came to actually making a decision.

    Somewhat reminiscent of politicians generally making EU-sceptical noises in opposition then behaving in the opposite direction in office. And then being surprised when the populace isn't as pro-EU as the political class.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    Liam Fox comes out against unicorns. The traitor.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    The new Apple sign in function makes me almost like them again:
    https://www.macrumors.com/2019/06/03/sign-in-with-apple-required-as-sign-in-option/
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    CD13 said:

    Mr B2,

    "Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who."

    I remember it well. Cardboard scenery, and a paunchy hero who was obviously a Guardian reader. However, the plots were good. Was it Servalan who was the villain? Boo, hiiss etc.

    Two good looking women; one blonde - the goody, one dark-haired, a baddy, stole the show.


    And to be fair, Dr Who was a kiddies' show.

    My actor uncle - who died last year - played Blake’s lawyer in the first ever episode.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    IanB2 said:

    Very sad news about Paul Darrow. Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who. The episodes are all on YouTube for anyone who missed out,

    It was a very good series.

    It also illustrates how entertainment and technology has become cheaper.

    In the 1990s it cost £260 to buy the series on VHS.
    In the 2000s it cost £120 to buy the series on DVD.
    Now its free on YouTube.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    MarqueeMark said:

    malcolmg said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    How absolutely desperate are things when the useless Lib Dems are a threat
    How absolutely desperately bad has May been when she has simultaneously lost votes to both the dead LibDems and the moribund Farage. It would have taken planning by a genius to engineer that.....
    It’s the Tory party which is looking moribund now.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    SouthamObserver said:

    Liam Fox comes out against unicorns. The traitor.

    Is Liam Fox drinking unicorn blood too .... Dare we speak his name again. Is he now the "Dark Fox" ?
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Is this a Fox Hunt dream ticket?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    edited June 2019
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, at the risk of sounding immodest, I did mention that some days (maybe a week or two) ago, when I said if the Conservatives jump towards BP, as seems likely, they stand to lose a great deal to the Lib Dems.

    When UKIP rode high it took nothing from the Conservatives and got a string of strong second places in Labour's northern heartlands.

    When the Lib Dems rode high they ate into Conservative territory, in the south-west in particular.

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg Mid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    another_richard said:

    IanB2 said:

    Very sad news about Paul Darrow. Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who. The episodes are all on YouTube for anyone who missed out,

    It was a very good series.

    It also illustrates how entertainment and technology has become cheaper.

    In the 1990s it cost £260 to buy the series on VHS.
    In the 2000s it cost £120 to buy the series on DVD.
    Now its free on YouTube.
    Some entertainment has become cheaper. Live tickets for a big name band or show have gone the other way.

    Baumol’s cost disease:
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baumol's_cost_disease
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.

    Short term the Tories are in worse shape, because they're in government and so voters can see the conflict between rhetoric and reality. Long term they have an okay chance of surviving because the Brexit wing of the party is much stronger than the other, so they can emerge with some unity.

    Long term Labour are in more trouble because of the divisions between the leadership, the MPs, members and Unions that exist not just on Brexit, but statist politics more generally.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    MarqueeMark said:

    malcolmg said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    How absolutely desperate are things when the useless Lib Dems are a threat
    How absolutely desperately bad has May been when she has simultaneously lost votes to both the dead LibDems and the moribund Farage. It would have taken planning by a genius to engineer that.....
    Sure , the ERG were so helpful to May it caused the Tories downfall.. If it wasn't for Corbyn and his loons I actually think I might vote Labour in protest at the ERG loons in the Party, I am sick of them, sick to death in fact. A middle of the road Labour Party has to be better than the nuts in the Tories.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    The Con-LD swing could have been 5% and Con-BXP swing 4.9% in every one of the light blue seats, and we’d be none the wiser. It would be more helpful if the colour was darker the bigger the swing
  • jayfdeejayfdee Posts: 618
    CD13 said:

    Mr B2,

    "Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who."

    I remember it well. Cardboard scenery, and a paunchy hero who was obviously a Guardian reader. However, the plots were good. Was it Servalan who was the villain? Boo, hiiss etc.

    Two good looking women; one blonde - the goody, one dark-haired, a baddy, stole the show.


    And to be fair, Dr Who was a kiddies' show.

    Yes Servalan was the shaved head baddie, Orac was the computer, Blake realised how bad the production was, and left, so after the first series it was really only 6 of them and no Blake. It was quite entertaining for the time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    williamglenn said:

    Is this a Fox Hunt dream ticket?

    To lose to Boris in the member vote? Sure.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    SouthamObserver said:

    CD13 said:

    Mr B2,

    "Blake’s Seven knocked all the other 70s SciFi stuff into the shade, including Dr Who."

    I remember it well. Cardboard scenery, and a paunchy hero who was obviously a Guardian reader. However, the plots were good. Was it Servalan who was the villain? Boo, hiiss etc.

    Two good looking women; one blonde - the goody, one dark-haired, a baddy, stole the show.


    And to be fair, Dr Who was a kiddies' show.

    My actor uncle - who died last year - played Blake’s lawyer in the first ever episode.
    I met the blonde girl in the Windor Castle in Notting hill.. She was lovely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.

    Short term the Tories are in worse shape, because they're in government and so voters can see the conflict between rhetoric and reality. Long term they have an okay chance of surviving because the Brexit wing of the party is much stronger than the other, so they can emerge with some unity.

    Long term Labour are in more trouble because of the divisions between the leadership, the MPs, members and Unions that exist not just on Brexit, but statist politics more generally.
    Plus Labour has the problem most of its voters voted Remain but most of its seats voted Leave. Most Tory voters and seats voted Leave
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    The big problem with Fox’s warnings about No Deal imperilling the Union is that the English nationalists who now dominate the Conservative party in and out of Parliament do not care. If Brexit means the end of the UK, so be it.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,362
    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    I have money in that fund, think it is isolated to him, a fallen star.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector.

    This was triggered by Kent Council finally getting their arse in gear. Too late for their pensioners though.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    Increases it, the Tories got 42% in 2017, yet when over half of 2017 Tories who voted voted Brexit Party in the European Parliament elections and the Tory share plunged to 9%.

    Even if you added every LD voter to the Tory share the Tories would only have got 29%, however add every Brexit Party voter to the Tory share and the Tories would have been back on 42%
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Mortimer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, at the risk of sounding immodest, I did mention that some days (maybe a week or two) ago, when I said if the Conservatives jump towards BP, as seems likely, they stand to lose a great deal to the Lib Dems.

    When UKIP rode high it took nothing from the Conservatives and got a string of strong second places in Labour's northern heartlands.

    When the Lib Dems rode high they ate into Conservative territory, in the south-west in particular.

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg Mid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.
    I agree with that (except for the ‘us’ bit).
    The problem for the Tories is that such a choice effectively surrenders the centre ground for a decade or more.

    If they can kill the BP, that might be a worthwhile electoral bargain - it worked for Thatcher. Killing the BP might surrender the centre to an extent even Thatcher didn’t manage, though. Tacking probably isn’t going to be enough.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.

    Short term the Tories are in worse shape, because they're in government and so voters can see the conflict between rhetoric and reality. Long term they have an okay chance of surviving because the Brexit wing of the party is much stronger than the other, so they can emerge with some unity.

    Long term Labour are in more trouble because of the divisions between the leadership, the MPs, members and Unions that exist not just on Brexit, but statist politics more generally.
    I disagree. Labour have squabbles about that but the mps have shown very little fight on such issues, only finding their voice on Brexit, anti semitism and foreign affairs to a lesser degree.

    The latter is not a big deal for most, the Brexit issue solvable leaving only anti semitism as the big problem, and the voters dont even seem to care about that.

    Whereas the tories are grossly incompetent, which is fixable, and absolutely divided on a critical issue, which isn't. They will survive no deal since you are right it is strongest, but they will be dead in London and hammered in other areas.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    RochdalePioneers said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1135799554694139904

    Fascinating. Had assumed Fox would back a solid leaver. Then again, that would put the onus back onto him to land the promised trade deals. Which after several years in his current job he knows to be impossible
    Fox wants to Leave just with a Deal
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    Precisely. Deliver brexit of some kind and maybe you get some BXP back even though you take a hit. Get on your knees before Farage and yes the party will be happier on the whole, but swathes of voters wont touch you and you still ain't get all the BXP back.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 28,391
    MarqueeMark said:

    malcolmg said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    How absolutely desperate are things when the useless Lib Dems are a threat
    How absolutely desperately bad has May been when she has simultaneously lost votes to both the dead LibDems and the moribund Farage. It would have taken planning by a genius to engineer that.....
    I think that pales to almost insignificance compared to a party leader who has performed exactly the same trick and with greater effectiveness from the opposition benches. Making one's party unelectable from a position of government is one thing but to destroy a party from out of office is nothing short of remarkable.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    HYUFD said:

    Even if you added every LD voter to the Tory share the Tories would only have got 29%, however add every Brexit Party voter to the Tory share and the Tories would have been back on 42%

    2017 proved that you can't treat UKIP/BXP voters as lost Tories.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    williamglenn said:

    If you treat the Brexit Party as the continuator party of UKIP, this is the swing pattern for the European elections.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1135591166693531650?s=21

    So the map treats BXP and UKIP as the same party in 2019?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, at the risk of sounding immodest, I did mention that some days (maybe a week or two) ago, when I said if the Conservatives jump towards BP, as seems likely, they stand to lose a great deal to the Lib Dems.

    When UKIP rode high it took nothing from the Conservatives and got a string of strong second places in Labour's northern heartlands.

    When the Lib Dems rode high they ate into Conservative territory, in the south-west in particular.

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg Mid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.
    I agree with that (except for the ‘us’ bit).
    The problem for the Tories is that such a choice effectively surrenders the centre ground for a decade or more.

    If they can kill the BP, that might be a worthwhile electoral bargain - it worked for Thatcher. Killing the BP might surrender the centre to an extent even Thatcher didn’t manage, though. Tacking probably isn’t going to be enough.
    There's very little centre at present.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    SouthamObserver said:

    The big problem with Fox’s warnings about No Deal imperilling the Union is that the English nationalists who now dominate the Conservative party in and out of Parliament do not care. If Brexit means the end of the UK, so be it.

    Sadly so. The price some are willing to pay has gone nuts. Its worse for some of the mps, who know it is not as simple as they are promising but are too cowardly to say so, so just quote churchill and talk empty words.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    williamglenn said:

    If you treat the Brexit Party as the continuator party of UKIP, this is the swing pattern for the European elections.

    https://twitter.com/election_data/status/1135591166693531650?s=21

    The LDs were 5th last time second this time and that assumes 1st placed Brexit Party is the successor of previously 1st placed UKIP
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,127
    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    isam said:

    So the map treats BXP and UKIP as the same party in 2019?

    He says he treats BXP as the UKIP successor, so I presume the answer is yes.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    edited June 2019
    williamglenn said:

    HYUFD said:

    Even if you added every LD voter to the Tory share the Tories would only have got 29%, however add every Brexit Party voter to the Tory share and the Tories would have been back on 42%

    2017 proved that you can't treat UKIP/BXP voters as lost Tories.
    Most 2015 UKIP voters still voted Tory, only a minority went Labour, they are now voting Brexit Party, most Remainers voted Labour, many of those Remainers are now voting LD or Green
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector.

    This was triggered by Kent Council finally getting their arse in gear. Too late for their pensioners though.
    I thought Woodford (along with Terry Smith) was supposed to be Britain's answer to Warren Buffett. Have I mixed him up with someone else? I thought I'd pencilled him in for my next big win from the bookies (which is now long overdue, btw).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Mortimer, but come a General Election things will be different, not only because events move on but because higher turnout and the impact on government will alter voter behaviour. The shift from EU to GE voting helps the Lib Dems, I think.

    Mr. Observer, you keep talking about English nationalists but how many Leavers have actually asserted a desire for England to leave the UK, or for the UK to split apart? And you're ignoring Wales, which is ironic when making claims of English nationalism.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    kle4 said:

    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    Precisely. Deliver brexit of some kind and maybe you get some BXP back even though you take a hit. Get on your knees before Farage and yes the party will be happier on the whole, but swathes of voters wont touch you and you still ain't get all the BXP back.
    Comres last month had a Boris led Tory Party tied with Labour compared to its current position of 7% behind. The Brexit Party vote also halved from 20% to just 10% with a Boris led Tory Party
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,707
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?


    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector.

    (Snip)
    In what way, may I ask?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    #fakelaugh

    https://twitter.com/mrjakehumphrey/status/1135800596722790400?s=21
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    another_richard said:

    Nigelb said:

    Mortimer said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Glenn, at the risk of sounding immodest, I did mention that some days (maybe a week or two) ago, when I said if the Conservatives jump towards BP, as seems likely, they stand to lose a great deal to the Lib Dems.

    When UKIP rode high it took nothing from the Conservatives and got a string of strong second places in Labour's northern heartlands.

    When the Lib Dems rode high they ate into Conservative territory, in the south-west in particular.

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg Mid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.
    I agree with that (except for the ‘us’ bit).
    The problem for the Tories is that such a choice effectively surrenders the centre ground for a decade or more.

    If they can kill the BP, that might be a worthwhile electoral bargain - it worked for Thatcher. Killing the BP might surrender the centre to an extent even Thatcher didn’t manage, though. Tacking probably isn’t going to be enough.
    There's very little centre at present.
    Yep, unless Nick Boles is about to launch a political party !
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,903
    It feels like a futile argument as to which party is most broken by Brexit Tory or Labour. Surely the answer is both.

    I firmly believe the old duopoly has been smashed by Brexit. For decades we have seen voting largely framed around which side of the Con/Lab divide people see themselves on. That divide is rapidly being utterly eclipsed by the Remain/Leave divide, and as both Con and Lab manage to wriggle and writhe without having a clear position they are being left behind as irrelevant.

    That word - irrelevant - should be what scares them both. For a long time the LibDems were irrelevant. It didn't matter who they were or what they said or what policies they enacted - irrelevant. Even in coalition the only thing of note from the LibDems is that their MPs voted more loyally for Tory bills than Tory MPs and the LibDem voters and members hated it.

    Now though they have a focus and a purpose - remain. Labour will literally tear itself in half reaching (or not) a clear position on Brexit. The Tories have already scored their own divide and await the crowning of their new leader to rip off the Remain portion.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    Greg Hands also comes out for Hunt.

    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1135808951419920384
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    Charles said:

    Foxy said:

    Hmm, wonder if this will spook the markets? Has Brexit trashed another reputation?

    https://twitter.com/FinancialTimes/status/1135799628962631680?s=19

    Good riddance - he’s killed the UK life science sector...
    Any chance of expanding on that ?
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    kle4 said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.

    Short term the Tories are in worse shape, because they're in government and so voters can see the conflict between rhetoric and reality. Long term they have an okay chance of surviving because the Brexit wing of the party is much stronger than the other, so they can emerge with some unity.

    Long term Labour are in more trouble because of the divisions between the leadership, the MPs, members and Unions that exist not just on Brexit, but statist politics more generally.
    I disagree. Labour have squabbles about that but the mps have shown very little fight on such issues, only finding their voice on Brexit, anti semitism and foreign affairs to a lesser degree.

    The latter is not a big deal for most, the Brexit issue solvable leaving only anti semitism as the big problem, and the voters dont even seem to care about that.

    Whereas the tories are grossly incompetent, which is fixable, and absolutely divided on a critical issue, which isn't. They will survive no deal since you are right it is strongest, but they will be dead in London and hammered in other areas.
    Yes the MPs are spineless, but their hostility to Corbyn's political agenda helps to preserve him in place and so is an important factor in preventing Labour from taking a step forward on Brexit.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,772
    Jeremy Corbyn unveils plans for 'progressive' tax raid on homes and gardens of the middle class

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/jeremy-corbyn-unveils-new-tax-raid-owners-large-family-homes/
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,733
    Mortimer said:

    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
    I don't think the Tories can regain those voters who have swung LD in the forseeable. That ship has sailed. Kissing Farages arse is the Tory future now.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,217
    Nick Boles, Stephen Lloyd and Caroline Flint..
  • RogerRoger Posts: 19,914
    SouthamObserver said:

    Liam Fox comes out against unicorns. The traitor.

    All I heard was him and Nick Robinson salivating over Trump's daughter. I'm surprised the Me2 movement weren't around to comment. The BBC goes to pieces when Royalty are involved.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,156
    https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/1135809355037708288?s=20
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,653
    OblitusSumMe said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    The Conservatives look in worse shape long term than Labour. They’ve lost their Remain flank, are losing their Brexit flank and they will struggle to get one back never mind both.

    Short term the Tories are in worse shape, because they're in government and so voters can see the conflict between rhetoric and reality. Long term they have an okay chance of surviving because the Brexit wing of the party is much stronger than the other, so they can emerge with some unity.

    Long term Labour are in more trouble because of the divisions between the leadership, the MPs, members and Unions that exist not just on Brexit, but statist politics more generally.

    Yep, the Tories will emerge from all this as a hard right party of English nationalism. The LibDems really do have a very big opportunity.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Borough, gotta tax those bourgeois pigdogs and their filthy decadent gardens.

    Not like the wholesome allotments preferred by the working class.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,163
    Foxy said:

    Mortimer said:

    williamglenn said:

    Mortimer said:

    Looking at the Euro results from the SW, and from my own canvassing experience, the BP is a much bigger threat across the SW. LD support is patchy - and some marginals eg amid Dorset is now a Tory stronghold. The only way they go LD is if the Tory vote is split.

    I’m with Goodwin; talking to the centre will lose us more seats than tacking to the Eurosceptics.

    What on earth do you think aping the Brexit Party does to the Tory vote???
    In the SW, it wins more seats than aping the LDs would...
    I don't think the Tories can regain those voters who have swung LD in the forseeable. That ship has sailed. Kissing Farages arse is the Tory future now.
    Its what they have wanted for a long time.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,534
    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RSylvesterTimes/status/1135792951764967426

    The Conservatives do at least recognise that they've run dry on ideas (in which they remind me of Labour in 2010), but reinventing yourself in Government is usually impossible -the day job keeps throwing up problems which distract you. The domination of Brexit makes it even harder - as Corbyn has found, talking about any other issue simply makes the audience feel puzzled - how come he's going on about the NHS or railways when there's Brexit to solve, eh?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 71,238
    williamglenn said:

    Greg Hands also comes out for Hunt.

    https://twitter.com/Jeremy_Hunt/status/1135808951419920384

    A man of seriously limited imagination, then.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    williamglenn said:

    isam said:

    So the map treats BXP and UKIP as the same party in 2019?

    He says he treats BXP as the UKIP successor, so I presume the answer is yes.
    I think an interesting opinion poll would be a GE VI of 2017 voters who didn’t take part in the Euros
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    tlg86 said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,413
    edited June 2019
    Away from all the hissy fitting on Trump, Germany look as if it could lose its government. The SPD got thumped at the Euros and have gone in to meltdown, with their leader chucking in the towel and no-one wanting to take on the role. Merkel has done a 180 degree turn of her chosen successor AKK and is refusing to back her. Merkel has gone the full Theresa May and is refusing to leave office which is also causing tensions in the CDU.

    The big winners are the Greens who are on a roll with support climbing steadily and the latest polling showing them performing above their Euros high. They are now on 25% just one point behind the CDU


    https://www.welt.de/politik/article194698667/Union-und-SPD-verlieren-Gruene-legen-in-neuer-Umfrage-massiv-zu-Rekordhoch.html
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    HYUFD said:

    RochdalePioneers said:

    williamglenn said:

    https://twitter.com/JoeMurphyLondon/status/1135799554694139904

    Fascinating. Had assumed Fox would back a solid leaver. Then again, that would put the onus back onto him to land the promised trade deals. Which after several years in his current job he knows to be impossible
    Fox wants to Leave just with a Deal
    Brexiteers are belatedly noticing that a US trade deal might be a damn sight worse than what we have with the EU. The Telegraph published a couple of articles on this theme and other papers are also getting jumpy about threats to the NHS.

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/maths-trade-deal-trump-do-not-add/
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2019/06/03/stop-trying-meddle-affairs-mr-johnson-nhs-not-sale/

    It will be interesting to see what is raised at the hustings as the notion that Britain can be a rulemaker rather than a ruletaker (or would even want to be) fails its first contact with reality.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    How many and how many would TBP win ?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,806
    Mr. Brooke, will there be an election, or negotiations to try and form something new with existing numbers?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,675
    Hunt is at least a grown-up with some experience of government.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this


  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,624
    NickPalmer said:

    Scott_P said:

    https://twitter.com/RSylvesterTimes/status/1135792951764967426

    The Conservatives do at least recognise that they've run dry on ideas (in which they remind me of Labour in 2010), but reinventing yourself in Government is usually impossible -the day job keeps throwing up problems which distract you. The domination of Brexit makes it even harder - as Corbyn has found, talking about any other issue simply makes the audience feel puzzled - how come he's going on about the NHS or railways when there's Brexit to solve, eh?
    A problem of being in government a lengthy time is that many of the problems which arise were caused by previous policies of the same government.

    For example the difficulties with student debt and adult social care can be traced back to the choices made in 2010.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,720
    edited June 2019
    isam said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    It would look a bit like this
    That's three years out of date.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,176
    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    williamglenn said:

    tlg86 said:

    How useful do you think that map is?

    I think the insight that the real strategic threat to the Tories comes from the Lib Dems is one of the most important facts in British politics at the moment.
    It really doesn't.
    Imagine we had an election in which neither the Tories nor Labour stood any candidates. Where would the Brexit Party win and where would the Lib Dems win? The Lib Dem wins would overlap with a large number of safe Tory seats.
    I'm really struggling with this one. There was a swing from the Tories to Ukip/TBP in 2019. That there was a bigger swing from the Tories to the Lib Dems does not alter the fact that TBP came top of the vote.

    Now you could argue that EU elections are a much lower turnout than a General Election and that when it's FPTP people will vote differently. But you really are deceiving yourself if you think the Lib Dems - who started from 6.6% of the vote - getting a bigger swing than TBP means that they are a bigger threat to the Tories.
This discussion has been closed.