politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories wiped out in London as Mike Smithson wins his bet o
Options
Comments
-
Latest shares:
Brexit 31.7%
LD 20.3%
Lab 13.9%
Green 12.1%
Con 9.2%
CUK 3.5%
UKIP 3.4%0 -
Remember the Ullapool-Inverness ferry?Big_G_NorthWales said:@malcolmg
> Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
On Scotland Malc the answer is yes0 -
Two threads ago there was some talk about the Abingdon count and whether it was 50-50 Brexit/LibDem. Final numbers are:
Vale of White Horse: Lib Dems 17273, Brexit Party 11976
South Oxfordshire: Lib Dems 15233, Brexit Party 13197
I think Layla will sleep easy tonight.0 -
Judging by Manchester, Liverpool, Oldham and Bolton results...Labour panick about the second seat in NW look exagerated0
-
Good old North Ayrshire
North Ayrshire (Scotland) result:
SNP: 41.6% (+9.2)
Brex: 17.5% (+17.5)
Con: 12.5% (-4.5)
Lab: 10.1% (-18.7)
LDem: 7.9% (+5.3)
Grn: 5.6% (+0.3)
UKIP: 2.2% (-9.0)
ChUK: 2.0% (+2.0)0 -
I know he's not called "John Longworth Brexit", but it would be hysterically funny if he was...AndreaParma_82 said:Elected in Yorkshire...John Longworth Brexit
1 -
Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
Since when is a third a majority?0 -
Smith’s figures are wrong anyhow, as he has forgotten to add the Greens to the Remain side.Black_Rook said:> @ydoethur said:
>
>
>
>
> It doesn't look as though Corbyn is in for an easy ride.
Awful man, serves him bloody right0 -
Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.0
-
South west declaring.0
-
> @rcs1000 said:
> > @Sean_F said:
> > > @RobD said:
> > > > @SouthamObserver said:
> > > > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
> > >
> > > That's probably because London is in that.
> >
> > TBP should poll above 30% in each region to be declared now, other than Scotland.
>
> Yes: they should come out at about 34%. (And the LDs should hold on to the 20% mark.)
Brexit Party vote share was up 8.2% on 2014 UKIP share in Wales and 11.2% up on 2014 UKIP share in West Midlands.
On a UK share (as used for betting) I think they'll reach around 33% and around 34% on a GB share (as used for opinion polling).
Looks like a very good night for YouGov.0 -
Lol Alistair Campbell claiming TBP have lost in Wales.0
-
Al Campbell is self-destructing on live TV.
"All the roubles flowing in to your party"
If I were Farage, I'd send that to my libel lawyers.
Campbell has lost it. His wife should take him home.0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> > @SouthamObserver said:
> > https://twitter.com/spajw/status/1132775545698234371?s=21
>
> No, Brexit Party now level with LDs and Greens combined on 32% each.
>
>
But you need to add ChUK, PC and SNP to the revoke and remain number.0 -
> @malcolmg said:
> > @williamglenn said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > >
>
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> >
>
> > The Brexit Party coming second in Scotland is terrible news for unionism. Support for the union is increasingly synonymous with support for a failed project.
>
>
>
> Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
>
> Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
SNP got 37% in 2017 and currently also on 37%0 -
> @Cyclefree said:
> Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
>
> Since when is a third a majority?
It is also worth noting that of the BXP voters on here, a substantial minority are opposed to No Deal. (Not to the level of revocation.)
Most BXP voters, IMHO, just want the government to get on with it.0 -
South West:
CHUK 46,612
Con 144,674 (8.7%)
EngDem 8,393
Green 302,364 (18.1%)
Lab 108,100 (6.5%)
LD 385,095 (23.1%)
BRX 611,742 (36.7%)
UKIP 53,739
Maxey Ind 1,772
Rahman Ind 755
Ind Seed 3,3830 -
South West votes
Brexit Party 611742
LDs 385095
Greens 302364
Tories 144674
Labour 1081000 -
SW: Bx. 3 LD.2 Grn. 10
-
-
-
Wow. Labour utterly monstered in the South-West.0
-
Awful results for Labour and Tories in SW again. So far behind the Greens and Lib Dems it's embarrassing. No seats, surely?0
-
The South West really wants its Brexit.0
-
> @Cyclefree said:
> Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
>
> Since when is a third a majority?
It's a disappointment for them if that's where they end up. The Brexit-supporting media, and they themselves, had set up the expectation of more. It's the old core Tory vote again.0 -
So that's a chance of an MEP for Con in Scotland, almost certainly 1 in the SE, and probably none anywhere else, so 4 total? Yikes.Pulpstar said:Which regions are we waiting for ?
East Mids, South West, South East, Scotland, Northern Ireland, North West
Declared Yorkshire, NW, West Mids, London, East, North East ?
A couple more at least for Labour? So around 8-9? Only ok next to that Tory score.
0 -
9000+ spoiled ballots in the SW.
Widders is an MEP.0 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/seanjonesqc/status/1132780036992446465
Where better to sabotage them than from within?0 -
South West: strong green showing. Tories fourth.0
-
How did the Greens do so well in the SW0
-
South-West
Change UK: 46,612
Conservatives: 144,674
English Democrats: 8.393
Greens: 302,364
Labour: 108,100
Lib Dems: 385,095
Brexit: 611,742
Ukip: 53,739
(Ind candidates: 1,772, 755 and 3,383)
Seat apportionment:
1. Brexit
2. Lib Dems
3. Brexit
4. Greens
5. Brexit
6. Lib Dems
Greens doing very well, only party other than the big two to get a seat. Labour and Tories both wiped out.
**ENDS**0 -
> @HYUFD said:
> >
> >
> > Sturgeon gives the impression Scotland is unanimously for Remain, the Brexit Party a close second in Scotland with the LDs disproves that and the SNP still on little more than a third of the Scottish vote
> >
> > Dear god, take your blinkers off , more than double their nearest rival, are you really that thick.
>
> SNP got 37% in 2017 and currently also on 37%<
++++
Yep. In the current circs it's not an amazing result for the SNP. Worthy of one cheer, not three. They'd be mad to rush to Sindyref2 on this basis.
Prediction: they won't.0 -
> @Casino_Royale said:
> The South West really wants its Brexit.
Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!0 -
The other message of the night (and campaign) is how right Vince was to tell Chukka and the TIGgers to bugger off.0
-
South West MEPs elected
3 Brexit MEPs
2 LDs
1 Green
Ann Widdecombe elected0 -
No Tory or Labour MEP in SW0
-
Remain > Leave in South West0
-
Revoke and Remain beating No Deal in the SW.0
-
Let's just reflect for a minute on the fact that "the big two" tonight doesn't mean either Conservative or Labour.Black_Rook said:Greens doing very well, only party other than the big two to get a seat. Labour and Tories both wiped out.
...
Anne Widdecombe is still ghastly, isn't she?0 -
> @kle4 said:
> South West votes
>
>
>
> Brexit Party 611742
>
> LDs 385095
>
> Greens 302364
>
> Tories 144674
>
> Labour 108100
>
> I expected the Greens to keep their seat in the SW, but that is a very impressive score.
Wow indeed. They'll only feel a bit of disappointment that they haven't got more seats with all these kinds of impressive scores, but it's still a very good night for them.0 -
Looking at UKIP, BXP and Tories the leave vote in the SW is well down on 2014.0
-
East Midlands votes
Brexit Party 452321
LDs 203989
Lab 164682
Tories 1233280 -
0
-
-
Another monstering for Labour and Tories in the East Midlands. One Labour MEP just hangs on. Both Tory seats go.0
-
Earlier today I wrote that I thought the SW was very important to the LD revival. Well the results are in and they have increased their vote by 12%. I think they will be ok with this but not ecstatic.
Does not forecast an LD revival in my view but may well lead to ore council seats in the future.0 -
LDs second in E Mids!0
-
> @williamglenn said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > The South West really wants its Brexit.
>
> Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
Add UKIP plus Tories.0 -
> @WhisperingOracle said:
> > @kle4 said:
> > South West votes
> >
> >
> >
> > Brexit Party 611742
> >
> > LDs 385095
> >
> > Greens 302364
> >
> > Tories 144674
> >
> > Labour 108100
> >
> > I expected the Greens to keep their seat in the SW, but that is a very impressive score.
>
> Wow indeed. They'll only feel a bit of disappointment that they haven't got more seats with all these kinds of impressive scores, but it's still a very good night for them.
5k more votes and that would have been Greens 20 -
> @AndyJS said:
> Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.0 -
East Midlands MEPs elected
3 Brexit Party
1 LD
1 Labour
Annunziata Rees Mogg is elected0 -
0
-
East Midlands
3 Brexit
Annunziata Rees-Mogg
Jonathan Bullock
Matthew Patten
1 LD
William Newton Dunn
1 Lab
Rory Palmer0 -
> @Artist said:
> How did the Greens do so well in the SW
Rumours earlier in the night of Labour coming fourth in Bristol presumably true. They and the Lib Dems between them have evidently completely dismembered the Labour vote, save for the surviving core of diehard Corbynites and robot voters.0 -
> @rcs1000 said:
> > @Cyclefree said:
> > Brexit party spokesman on now saying that 31% of the vote means that the people have voted for a No Deal Brexit.
> >
> > Since when is a third a majority?
>
> It is also worth noting that of the BXP voters on here, a substantial minority are opposed to No Deal. (Not to the level of revocation.)
>
> Most BXP voters, IMHO, just want the government to get on with it.
Yes, I think so.0 -
The really interesting news of the election is that Emily Thornberry has had enough of Corbyn and it's pretty clear she'll move against him. She wants Labour to be unequivocal for Remain. No ifs or buts....
With Corbyn in place Brexit wont be stopped0 -
> @SouthamObserver said:
> Revoke and Remain beating No Deal in the SW.
No Deal beating Revoke and Remain in the East Midlands0 -
-
> @Casino_Royale said:
> > @williamglenn said:
> > > @Casino_Royale said:
> > > The South West really wants its Brexit.
> >
> > Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
>
> Add UKIP plus Tories.
You can’t add Tories. They form the woolly middle alliance with Labour. Remain won.0 -
Con down 20% in the SW. Those 10% bets are fading away.0
-
Who are these Lib Dem, I mean Tory and Labour Parties?0
-
Oh god. Mark Francois.0
-
I know, I know, it's Hodges on Labour, but still
https://twitter.com/DPJHodges/status/11327805783974666240 -
Labour - the Michael Gove of Brexit?Scott_P said:0 -
Everyone’s favourite MP Francois on the BBC.0
-
Has the BBC ever had an Election results website with no results on it?
It just lists MEPs. No figures for each region.0 -
Leave has gone backwards in that SW result, no questionCasino_Royale said:> @williamglenn said:
> > @Casino_Royale said:
> > The South West really wants its Brexit.
>
> Lib Dem + Green got more votes than the Brexit Party!
Add UKIP plus Tories.0 -
> @oldpolitics said:
> > @AndyJS said:
> > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
>
> Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit?
Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.0 -
> @kle4 said:
> > @Cicero said:
>
> > > @HYUFD said:
>
> > > > @StuartDickson said:
>
> > > > > @Alistair said:
>
> > > > > SNP are utterly smashing this.
>
> > > >
>
> > > > But, but, but... the BBC keeps telling me that Ruth is to be the next FM.
>
> > >
>
> > > SNP still under 40% and Brexit Party now second in Scotland
>
> >
>
> > The big news is the total wipe out of Scottish Labour... Edinburgh, Aberdeen, Dundee, they are being totally taken off the map.
>
> >
>
>
>
> I never thought I’d live long enough. Praise the Lord.
>
> I'm worried about your heart seeting these results, don't get too excited!
Nah. No worries. It’s just a daft Euro vote. Means the square root of diddly squat. But it is a straw in the wind. Or in the case of Ruth Davidson and Richard Leonard, a cow-pat on the head.0 -
> @Byronic said:
> Oh god. Mark Francois.
Where as on Sky they have Tobias Ellwood....who reminds me not all Tories are total moronic nutters.0 -
Can we have a relaxation of the rules around the C word so I can describe Mark Francois appropriately?0
-
> @SouthamObserver said:
> Revoke and Remain beating No Deal in the SW.
Your assuming that all the con vote is not no deal that’s a big assumption when most con members are for no deal0 -
-
> @Jonathan said:
> Remain > Leave in South West
Umm no. Tories are Leave, Labour is Leave officially but should really be put in neither column.0 -
> @ydoethur said:
> Can we have a relaxation of the rules around the C word so I can describe Mark Francois appropriately?
Time for the big vote of the night: who's worse, Alastair Campbell or Mark Francois?
I vote Campbell.1 -
> @Scott_P said:
> https://twitter.com/annemcelvoy/status/1132782100904652800
No difficulty there. The Tories need to represent one or the other. Either exit properly or don't bother.0 -
> @Black_Rook said:
> > @oldpolitics said:
> > > @AndyJS said:
> > > Remain parties currently on 54% if you include Labour.
> >
> > Brexit parties currently on 60% if you include Labour.
>
> And there's the crux of the matter. You could even say the same, to a lesser degree, about the Tories: are they for May's Deal or Hard Brexit?
>
> Voters are heavily polarising, but you can't determine whether or not the Remainers or Leavers are truly ahead in public opinion based on these results.
What you can determine is that very little figures beyond the Tories' old core vote, though, want no-deal, as hoped for and publicly offered by the Brexit party. And yet the Tories may be about to throw themselves into a no-deal candidacy and trajectory.0 -
Yes. I would expect moves to be made against Corbyn this week... at least if any sensible [1] Labour MPs have anything to do with it.Roger said:The really interesting news of the election is that Emily Thornberry has had enough of Corbyn and it's pretty clear she'll move against him. She wants Labour to be unequivocal for Remain. No ifs or buts....
With Corbyn in place Brexit wont be stopped
[1] Oh, wait....0 -
One thing most of us can wholeheartedly celebrate is the defeat of "Tommy Robinson " and the rump of UKIP. Good riddance. Won't be embarrassing the country in Strasbourg.0
This discussion has been closed.